It’s no secret farm country is suffering from retaliatory tariffs, a result of President Donald Trump’s trade negotiating tactics. Could the trade war push U.S. agriculture into a recession? One Wall Street analyst thinks it could.
“From an investor’s standpoint, what we’re seeing on Wall Street is perhaps a little naivety and a little complacency around the impact of tariffs on the ag economy,” said Ann Duignan of JP Morgan on “AgriTalk.” “I think from Wall Street’s perspective, the idea is, ‘Oh, it’s only a small fraction of the economy, it doesn’t matter,’ but when you get out there and you get your feet on the street in the Midwest, you quickly realize it does really, really, really matter.”
Profitability continues to take a hit with no signs of easing up in 2019. Duignan said Farm Credit Services is penciling in huge corn acres next year and a price of $3.20 per bushel.
“We’re standing on the edge of the cliff, and the longer these tariffs stay in place, the higher the risks that we could be stepping into an agricultural recession in the next year or two,” she said. “So, I’m nervous quite honestly.”
She’s also concerned tariffs could take markets away from U.S. corn growers long term.
“We’ve got to be careful because other regions of the world can step in very quickly and take some of the market away from U.S. farmers,” she said. “That’s what concerns me most. It doesn’t take long to do permanent damage.”
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