RICE: Slight changes are made to the U.S. 2013/14 all rice and rice-by-type supply and use balance sheets. All rice imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt (all in long-grain) to 21.0 million based on U.S. Census Bureau data through October and expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. U.S. 2013/14 beginning stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago. U.S. 2013/14 rice total use is unchanged from last month—with domestic and residual use and exports forecast at 116.0 million and 100 million cwt, respectively. The rice-by-class forecasts of domestic and residual use and exports are also unchanged from a month ago. All rice ending stocks at 30.2 million cwt are down 3 percent from a month ago.
The 2013/14 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $14.80 to $15.80 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.80 to $17.80 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $15.40 to $16.40 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range.
Global total supplies of rice for 2013/14 are lowered more than the decrease in total use resulting in a drop in world ending stocks. Global rice production is projected at 470.6 million tons, still a record, but down 2.6 million from last month due primarily to lower forecasts for India and Thailand. India’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 2.0 million tons to 103.0 million, still the third largest crop on record, due to the impact of torrential rains from a number of tropical cyclones and flooding in northeastern and southeastern regions. Thailand’s 2013/14 rice production is lowered 0.6 million tons to 20.5 million, still a record, due to an expected decline in the dry-season or off-season rice crop. Changes to Thailand’s off-season rice pledging program have cut intervention prices and eligible tonnage for each household by 13 percent making it less appealing to Thailand farmers. The Philippine rice crop is still a record, but is lowered less than 0.1 million tons to 11.6 million due to the impact of Super Typhoon Haiyan. Despite being one of the strongest storms ever recorded, crop damage from the typhoon is not expected to affect the nation’s rice supply as the impacted regions were not key producing areas, according to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Manila.
Global rice consumption for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 472.9 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month due mostly to a decrease in India. Global 2013/14 exports are increased due to an increase of 0.5 million tons for Thailand, now forecast at 8.5 million. World imports are also increased with the Philippines and the European Union up from last month, partially offset by lower imports for Iran and the United States. World ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 104.3 million tons, down 2.2 million from last month, and a decrease of 2.3 million from the year earlier. Ending stocks are lowered for the European Union, India, Thailand, and the United States.