RICE: Small changes are made to the U.S. 2011/12 rice supply and use balances. The 2011/12 all rice import forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 20.0 million, based largely on the pace of imports reflected in the U.S. Bureau of the Census import data through December—all in long-grain rice. The increase in rice imports is largely due to a noticeable increase in fragrant rice imported from Thailand and India. Although the all rice export forecast is unchanged at 89.0 million cwt, combined medium- and short-grain rice is increased 1.0 million cwt to 32.0 million, and conversely, the long-grain projection is lowered the same amount to 57.0 million. The rough rice export forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 31.0 million, which is offset by an increase in the combined milled and brown export forecast to 58.0 million (roughequivalent basis). All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million from a month ago. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 23.6 million cwt, up 2.0 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks are forecast at 14.2 million, down 1.0 million from a month ago.
The 2011/12 long-grain season-average price is projected at $13.20 to $13.80 per cwt, down 20 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.40 to $16.00 per cwt, up 20 cents on each end of the range. The all rice season-average price is forecast at $13.90 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. Global rice prices from most sources have been trending down during the past month due largely to lackluster import demand and aggressive pricing by India.
USDA’s rice Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee recently reviewed foreign rice milling rates in the USDA global supply and use database for the period 2006/07 through
2011/12. The Foreign Agricultural Service staff of USDA at U.S. embassies around the world provided actual milling yields, milling practices, and milling technology in an effort to better calibrate the average milling yield for a given country. Some countries indicated significant increases in the milling yields: Burma increased from 58 percent to 64 percent, Nigeria increased 60 percent to 63 percent, and Turkey increased 60 percent to 67 percent. The average milling yields used for India and China are unchanged at 66.7 percent, and 70.0 percent, respectively. Most of the changes are small. Average milling yields were changed for about 40 countries.
Global 2011/12 rice production and consumption are up more than 2.5 million tons from a month ago, while trade and ending stocks changes are less than 0.3 million. A large portion of the changes in global production and consumption can be attributed to the changes made to global milling rates as described in the preceding paragraph. The change in Burma’s milling rate led to a 10 percent increase in forecast milled production for 2011/12–up 1.1 million tons. India’s rice crop is raised 0.75 million tons to a record 102.75 million based on official data from the government of India. Conversely, Brazil’s crop is lowered 0.14 million tons due to the effects of drought in Rio Grande do Sul, an important rice-growing State. The increase in global consumption is due primarily to increases for Burma, Egypt, and India. The changes in global trade are small. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are raised 0.2 million tons to 100.3 million, up 2.5 million from the previous year, and the largest since 2002/03.
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