WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month with lower beginning stocks more than offset by higher production, both based on the latest survey-based estimates and forecasts. Beginning stocks are reduced 27 million bushels as indicated by the June 1 stocks estimate reported in the June 28 Grain Stocks.
Production is forecast up 34 million bushels with lower forecast harvested area from the June 28 Acreage report more than offset by higher yields. Production is raised 11 million bushels for Hard Red Winter and 30 million bushels for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat.
White Winter wheat is forecast down 7 million bushels. For durum, a reduction in area is only partly offset by a higher yield with production forecast down 5 million bushels. For other spring wheat, a reduction in area is more than offset by a higher yield forecast in today’s Crop Production report, adding 4 million bushels to this month’s production forecast. July survey-based yield forecasts for durum and other spring wheat are up 1.6 bushels per acre from last month’s trend based projections.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2013/14 is raised 89 million bushels as lower expected domestic use is more than offset by higher projected exports. Projected feed and residual disappearance is lowered 10 million bushels with stronger export demand, especially for SRW wheat. Exports are projected 100 million bushels higher reflecting strong sales, particularly to China.
Ending stocks are projected down 83 million bushels. At 576 million tons, stocks are expected to remain well above the 60-year low of 306 million in 2007/08. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is raised 20 cents on both ends to $6.45 to $7.75 per bushel. At the $7.20-per-bushel midpoint, this would be down from the record $7.77 per bushel reported for 2012/13.
Global wheat supplies for 2013/14 are lowered 3.5 million tons reflecting lower projected beginning stocks as world production rises 1.9 million tons. Higher 2012/13 feed use in China accounts for most of the reduction in beginning stocks with smaller increases in domestic consumption for Pakistan, Russia, and Iran adding to the decline in 2012/13 global carryout. World production for 2013/14 is raised with increases for Australia, the European Union, and the United States offsetting a reduction for Kazakhstan.
Australia production is raised 1.0 million acres reflecting the latest government estimates for area and a slightly higher yield outlook as early season conditions have been especially favorable in the country’s southern and eastern growing areas. Production for the European Union is raised 1.2 million tons, however, the addition of Croatia accounts for most of the increase. Higher production prospects for Romania, Hungary, United Kingdom, and several smaller countries outweigh reductions for France, Ireland, and Spain. Production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Kazakhstan with lower planted area reported by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is raised 5.4 million tons mostly reflecting higher expected feeding in China. Wheat consumption is also raised for India, Pakistan, Iran, and Japan, offsetting reductions for the European Union and the United States. Global wheat trade is raised with a 5.0-million-ton increase in China imports. A 0.5-million-ton increase in imports for Iran is offset by the same size reduction for the European Union. World exports are raised 5.0 million tons with increases for Australia, the European Union, and the United States. Exports are lowered for India and Kazakhstan. World ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 8.9 million tons lower. At 172.4 million tons, stocks would be the lowest since 2008/09, but well above the 128.8 million in 2007/08.
Coverage, Analysis of the July 11 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the July 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.