The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
The Grain Hedge Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.
In the overnight session the grains traded lower with corn down ¼ to ¾ of a cent, Soybeans are down between ¼ to 1 cent, Chicago wheat is down 3 ¾ cents with Kansas City wheat down 3 ½ cents.
US soybean futures edge higher on Friday and are poised for its biggest weekly gain in seven months as dry weather threatens production of the oilseed in Argentina. Corn edged higher, while wheat firmed nearly 0.5 percent to be on course for a weekly gain of more than 3 percent.
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The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange announced that 58 percent of its corn crop and 56 percent of its soybean crop has been damaged by the drought. The exchange’s forecast for soybean harvest this season is at 50 million metric tons of soybeans (USDA @ 54 MMT) and 39 million metric tons of corn (in line with USDA). The Argentina weather forecast has not changed much this morning. Erratic showers and thunderstorms are expected today throughout the weekend leaving some areas with meaningful precipitation and other areas dry and under continued crop stress. Brazil weather continues to be favorable to crop development with some dryness in Rio Grande do Sul.
Brazil’s Agricultural minister reported today that Brazil’s crop this year could surpass last years record. Blairo Maggie said “There were no losses whatsoever. The planting of the second corn crop was delayed slightly but everything is going normally. I think there will be a repeat of last seasons super crop.” The latest USDA projection of Brazil’s 2017/18 corn crop estimates a 95 million metric ton harvest which compares to the 98.50 MMT produced last year. The USDA has 2017/18 soybean production projected at 112 million metric tons compared to 114.10 MMT last year.
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