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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans crush estimates from USDA may be too low, exports might still be too low as well unless we start seeing more Chinese cancellations (which there are more rumors floating around this morning). Bottom-line US demand remains strong and available supplies are in question. The trade continues to ask, how high is high enough to ration demand? In an effort to do it's job the market will continue to push the upper limits to see if and when end-users and importers will cry uncle and throw in the towel. Importing more soybeans from South America is the obvious solution, but I am thinking that task won't be as easy as it appears on paper. Moral of the story, this market might need to take a little breather and catch it's breath before making another final run higher as US supplies tighten, but I still think there is more room to the upside. From a spec perspective this remains a dangerous market. Producers should have at least 50-60% of their new-crop priced and looking to find ways to secure and limit the remaining downside exposure. Continue to keep your eye on the political problems and labor issues in Argentina, things are starting to heat up a bit. CLICK HERE for my daily report....
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