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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybean "technicians" are talking about what could be a weekly bullish "key-reversal." The only problem is the "fundamentals" haven't changed that dramatically in the past few sessions. The bulls continue to talk about the overly wet conditions in many US locations; the possibility now of fewer double-crop bean acres going in behind wheat simply because of the delays in harvest; the recent renewed strength in bean oil; the lack of farmer selling in Argentina due to the weakening peso; limits movement out of Brazil due to the World Cup. On the flip-side, the bears continue to talk about record US acreage (despite the heavy rains); the break in meal prices; less than ideal Chinese crush margins; and the potential for burdensome global soybean supplies longer-term. Both parties seem to be correct in their current assessments, and that might be why we are stuck in a bit of a trading-range between $12.00 and $12.50. The kicker however will be how things play out moving forward: It's ultimately all about how many acres will get harvested...not planted? How many bushels will actually get imported from South America? and How the Chinese demand plays out moving forward? I am closely monitoring prices in both the NOV14 and NOV15 contracts as they start to more rapidly approach our next sales price targets. Producers with good sales already in place should remain patient for the time being letting the market work... CLICK HERE for my daily report.....
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