The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans traders are a little nervous about the fact the USDA is going to "re-survey" soybean acres in 14-states (results published in the August report). Traditionally the bean acreage size tends to shrink between now and harvest, but bears in the trade believe the "re-survey" could eventually show an additional 1 to 2 million soybean acres. Meaning the thought of 79-80 million soybean acres is still alive in the trade. I personally doubt we see a number of this magnitude, but nonetheless the rumors and fear remain in place. As we sit right now the 77.7 million acres (now estimated) is a NEW record and well beyond the 77.2 million acres planted last year. Moving forward the question is obviously "yield," and in particular if the late planted beans can produce anything close to the 44.5 bushel per acre currently being projected. Keep in mind the current crop rating is 65% "Good-to-Excellent" vs. just 54% last year at this time. As for old-crop, the USDA confirmed extremely tight supplies, meaning premiums should continue to stay in place at least through early August. Bottom-line, producers with a few old-crop bushels remaining can probably afford to stick around to see if any more fireworks go off. On the flip-side more aggressively pricing new-crop bushels seems like sound "risk management." For a FREE 45 day trial to my report CLICK HERE .
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