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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
There is talk the USDA could actually "raise" the old-crop ending stocks number next Monday, finding an extra 20-25 million bushels would not be out of the realm of reality. Questions also continue to be raised about the USDA's "demand" estimate, which could easily be 20-30 million bushels overly optimistic. Lets also take into account the clear unknown in regards to yield. If the yield, for some crazy reason, were to jump higher by just 1-bushel per acre, we could go from a very tight ending stock situation to much more palatable number, all in the blink of an eye. I am guaranteeing this will be the case, but I do want producers to understand $13 beans directly out of the field make for very nice profits, especially considering how quickly it could all disappear. With many producers focused on harvesting corn right now, in order to secure any "premiums" that are still being offered, the bean harvest might be a little slower than most are anticipating. Keep in mind with many of the beans still having green leaves and green stems, rather than being able to run the combines at 4.0-to-4.5 mph pace, producers are having to slow things down dramatically, closer to a 2.0-to-2.5 mph pace. Meaning the harvest pace might be a lot less brisk as we have seen the past few years.
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