Aug 05, 2013
Grain and oilseed markets were mixed with more bearspreading. December corn closed 3 ¼ cents lower at $4.60 ½, November soybeans 1 ¾ cents higher at $11.83 ¼, and September wheat 15 ¼ cents lower at $6.45 ¼.
The market continues to drag lower on beneficial rains and a general lack of anything bullish for the market to cling to. Informa released their yield expectations this morning and lowered their corn number to 158.6 (from 160) and bean yield to 42.7 (from 43.9). This was slightly favorable for soybeans. The crop progress report showed a 1% gain in corn and soybean ratings. They are both rated at 64% good-excellent which is about where the market had them pegged so we don’t expect any market surprises on tonight’s reopen.
It’s hard not to sound like a broken record with this kind of market activity but really the fundamentals have not changed much in the past 2-3 weeks. Favorable weather continues to drag the market down as yield expectations grow. Ethanol profitability is coming back into play but that doesn’t mean that demand will come back strong enough to make a big difference on corn carryout. We are already pegging ethanol usage at 4.8 billion bushels. Even if we top 5.0 billion we could still see a 2+ billion bushel corn carryout.
This is a chart that has obviously caught a lot of people off guard and could continue to do so into harvest. We are recommending our customers to stay well hedged through this time frame. Please call EHedger for a second opinion of your marketing strategy using the AgYield software.
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