EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11/20/12
Nov 20, 2012
CBOT markets were strong Tuesday on low volume trading. The market traditionally sees price support around Thanksgiving Day and we can attribute much of this strength to seasonal factors. Reports of stronger crush margins in China kept the January contract supported. South Brazilian weather had increased rains expected for Thursday into Saturday and remains favorable overall. There weren’t any fresh crop threatening weather problems in the midday forecast for South America.
US HRW country is still looking dry for the next two weeks! Yesterday the Crop Progress Report showed a decline in winter wheat conditions to 34% good-excellent. This is a new record low crop rating during the month of November. Even with this "price-friendly" news wheat had the least amount of support on the board. There is plenty of world competition among exporting countries and the US has not been the cheapest option. We are at the bottom end of the range for December Chicago Wheat and may be ready for a technical bounce.
Crude oil lost much of its recent price rally today after talk that a truce between Israel and Gaza is close to being reached. January crude oil was down $2.00 near the end of the electronic trading session. The weakness in energy prices provided some resistance for the corn market.
Corn was unable to close above the 50 day moving average currently at $7.45 ¾.
January soybean’s upside target may be up at the gap level of $14.50 and then $14.55 for the 200 day moving average.
It will be a full trading session tomorrow but markets will be closed on Thursday. Friday’s hours will be shortened to a half-day.
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