Early Thoughts on Friday's USDA Report / Trade Guesses
May 07, 2013
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This is a big report because not only are we going to be looking closely at the USDA's numbers for 2012/2013 but we will be very interested to see what they say about 2013/2014 for the first time. In the grain complex the biggest surprise is usually the market driver on these reports. Meaning, if we are way off on one of the numbers that commodity will likely be the leader for the day. If there is no big surprise or all the numbers are big surprises then corn seems to be in the drivers seat of the grain complex. However, at this time of year it is not uncommon to have grains move different directions as the acreage story unfolds.
The biggest numbers in this report will be ending stocks numbers for 2012/2013 and 2013/2014. The average trade estimates are as follows:
Corn - 749 million bushels
Wheat - 733 million bushels
Soybeans - 123 million bushels
Corn - 1.993 billion bushels
Wheat - 658 million bushels
Soybeans - 236 million bushels
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There are a lot of moving parts on this report so it is very difficult to tell if the trade will be paying more attention to 2012/2013 or 2013/2014. It really is a situation of two sharply contrasting fundamental make ups. 2012/2013 was a major drought year resulting in low ending stocks and tight balance sheets (also record high prices in corn and beans last summer). 2013/2014 is expected to be a huge crop as long as we get it planted and have a good growing season. Here again the biggest surprise may take the lead.
At first glance I wonder if the USDA is really going to show us almost a 2 billion bushel carry over in new crop corn. They most likely can not change acreage numbers this early in the game, but them might choose to bump up the demand numbers to even things out. The same concept might be in play for the soybeans. If the USDA can not increase soybean acreage at this time they might want to tone down demand numbers to even things out.
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I will get into more detail on Thursday. If you are looking for ideas or want to talk strategy feel free to give me a call or shoot me an email, you will find my contact info below.
December Corn Daily chart:
November Soybeans Daily chart:
December Wheat Daily chart:
All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have corn near $7.00 and soybeans near $14.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent. Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs. Be safe!
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or email@example.com
Please check out my Blog at: http://tedseifriedfutures.com/
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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.
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