Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Why Fertilizer Relief is Years Away for U.S. Farmers

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:55:30 GMT

As the Iran war and the closure of the Strait reach its tenth week fertilizer supplies aren’t moving. That means the window for a fertilizer price correction this spring has officially slammed shut.

Fertilizer Prices Near Record High Before Iran War

Phosphate and nitrogen prices were already elevated before the Iran war according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer with StoneX, as China, the world’s number two nitrogen exporter, banned exports.

Urea: Prices have nearly doubled since early December.
Potash: Up approximately 10% since the start of the year.

Then came the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz which added insult to injury as three of the top 10 largest urea and anhydrous exporters are cut off. Linville points out that’s because the Strait closure also shut down LNG or the natural gas supplies used to produce nitrogen fertilizer products, which further elevated prices at New Orleans, Louisiana.

Even if the Strait opened today, the last tons of fertilizer won’t reach U.S. farmers for 60 days. Still Linville is not sounding the alarm despite figures quoted by USDA officials and other trade groups that 20% of the U.S. fertilizer supply was not in place for spring planting.

“I believe North America’s actually in good shape on urea. Now, you look at anhydrous, we produce most of what we need and we’re sitting okay there. From UAN, we produce most of what we need,” he says.

(Source: Kpler)

U.S. Cheaper Than Global Prices

Still Linville says U.S. farmers are in a better position than the rest of the world as U.S. nitrogen and phosphate values are $250 lower than global fertilizer prices, on the aggressive end. He says using more conservative estimates that number tips slightly lower.

“If I go low on the Middle East price based on where futures have been trading, if I go low on the vessel freight, if I go low on every single thing, it’s still $150 a ton cheaper than that rate.”

Jordan Scott, who farms near Valley Springs, South Dakota, pre-booked his fertilizer but some farmers in his area are not that fortunate.

“Some couldn’t even get it for spring or had to wait and when they could get it, the prices were just 30 to 40% higher,” Scott says.

Scott says that is forcing some farmers to cut corn acreage for spring of 2026. “I’ve heard some of that where people are switching rotations to go to more beans. It takes less fertilizer to produce beans.”

Early estimates have called for a one to two million acre cut in corn plantings off the 95.3 million acres in the USDA Prospective Plantings Report, with a direct shift to soybeans.

Linville isn’t sure the cut to corn acres will be as high as predicted, and he’s seen no evidence of surveys quoting nearly half of farmers can’t afford fertilizer.

“I have not seen anything that indicates demand is down 50% across the board. We’ve not seen those type of numbers. Nothing close to it. In fact, some people are starting to come back and say, I’ve actually been surprised how many more sales I’ve made,” he says.

No Fix to Fertilizer Prices for 2026 and 2027?

Scott, who is also secretary of the American Soybean Association, says that group has been urging the Commerce Department to take action and drop the countervailing duties (CVDs) on Moroccan phosphate imports into the U.S. He knows there isn’t a short-term fix to the fertilizer price increase, but that would help.

“We’ve been pressuring the administration to work on the the countervailing duties. There was a study that came out that said it costs farmers almost $7 billion last year in in extra cost for fertilizer,” he explains.

Last week, the Trump administration announced its plan to lower fertilizer prices, which includes a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into price fixing by U.S. fertilizer companies and clamping down on anti-trust enforcement. USDA data indicates four players control 75% of the fertilizer supplies in North America and represent a monopoly.

Linville begs to differ.

“Is there really a monopoly? No. A monopoly is a market controlled by one party. Oligopoly, that’s where the argument could be had. That’s a, you know, controlled by a few people. Again, I’m splitting hairs here, right? I think the verbiage is important to talk about,” he says.

However, he points out that fertilizer is a global market and prices are also influenced by global and geopolitical events such as those playing out right now in the Middle East.

Is Domestic Investment the Answer?

The Trump administration has also assembled a plan to uncover more critical mineral production and to provide investments into U.S. fertilizer facilities. However, Linville says fertilizer production manufacturing infrastructure is expensive and so it will take a long time to fix prices by expanding U.S. fertilizer production capacity.

As such, Linville thinks the near to record high prices for fertilizer will linger into the fall of 2026 and even the spring of 2027 for U.S. and farmers around the world.

“This will still have phosphate and nitrogen impacts on the price spring of ’27. I really struggle to see how we can solve this in such a short amount of time,” he adds.

Agriculture news and commodity markets

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Why Fertilizer Relief is Years Away for U.S. Farmers

Fertilizer Prices Near Record High Before Iran War

U.S. Cheaper Than Global Prices

No Fix to Fertilizer Prices for 2026 and 2027?

Is Domestic Investment the Answer?