China Corn Planting Outlook - WET!
May 04, 2016
Commodity markets are starting to realize that there have been some big WEATHER hurdles as of late with too much rain in Argentina for the soybean harvest, excessive heat and dryness for Brazil's Safrina corn crop during pollination, too much rain in parts of the U.S. for planting so let's talk about the next hurdle - China!
China corn is on a similar planting schedule as the U.S. but much harder to get the real story as to what's going on with their crops. But one thing we can do here at weathertrends360 is assess the weather to get a feel for what might be going on there. April in Northeast China (major corn growing region) was the coldest in 3 years with below average temperatures and the wettest conditions in 4 years. For the Southern part of the corn growing regions to the South and West of Beijing it was near record hot (Shandong Province - #3 corn producing region) with the driest conditions in 3 years. For China overall it was a classic rapidly ending El Nino type weather pattern with the 2nd hottest April since 1998 and #1 wettest in over 25 years - much of that was in the Southeastern part of the country.
This table/map shows how the top 7 major growing regions faired the past 30 days along with a 2-week outlook. The top producing province is Heilongjiang which produces over 33 million tons, #2 is Jilin at 27 million tons, Inner Mongolia 22 million tons, Shandong 20 million tons, Henan 17 million, Hebei 16 million and Liaoning 12 million. CLICK FOR LARGER MAP VIEW
Northeast China has been the wettest in 8 to 11 years and that trend appears to get worse over the next two weeks with record wet conditions in the #1 corn growing region - Heilongjiang. CLICK FOR LARGER CHART VIEW
With the colder April in Northeast China it's not surprising that soil temperatures are still on the cold side but should warm up rapidly with some heat this week. CLICK FOR LARGER MAP VIEW
Soil moisture levels are excessive, over 40%, in the Northeast but too dry in some of the Southern and Western regions. Keep in mind 50% soil moisture is about as high as it gets in areas like tropical rain forests. CLICK FOR LARGER MAP VIEW
Some reports indicate that China may have over 50 million tons of rotting corn so the weather challenges with their planting season bode well for more news to rattle the commodity markets.
To see short range 1-14 day forecasts visit weathertrends360 interactive maps.
So, YES, we remain very bullish on a major corn rally coming in late July!!! See our Seeds of Success miniseries for our high level 2016 crop outlooks around the world issued last Fall.
Have a great Wednesday folks and plant safe. - Capt Kirk out.