Droughts end in floods...Floods end in Droughts
May 26, 2015
What a difference a year makes! This time last year parts of Texas was running out of water with just weeks left in some reservoirs. This year we're running out of room in the rivers to contain all the rain. Droughts end in Floods and that is certainly the case this year in the Southern Plains.
We can thank or curse the excessive rainfall to a developing El Nino event which is simply the warming of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean water temperatures. U.S. based models show this El Nino peaking late this Summer in the weak to moderate phase while the European models show a strong to mega El Nino twice as strong as the record strong 1998 El Nino. For now the Mega El Nino scenario seems to be model imagination but something to watch.
May rainfall-to-date has been record shattering with too much in the Southern Plains but record dry in the Northeast...but that's about to change.
Over the next 2 weeks rainfall looks to be well above average in the East where it's needed but still stormy in the Central U.S. as well. Crop losses are likely in the Southern Plains with fields underwater.
The Corn Belt has had some rain as of late but year-to-date (1 Jan - 26 May) has actually been very dry, driest in 15 years for the region overall. This chart summarizes the total rainfall from a dozen stats from MN to NE over to PA.
As long as El Nino stays in the weak to moderate phase this Summer we'll be OK with the warmest growing season in 3 years and enough moisture, but if it goes to the mega El Nino the European's are forecasting it could turn record hot and dry.
For now here are the temperature and rainfall trends across the U.S. Corn Belt for the critical July - August time-frame. The one bigger concern is the mid to late July period which does have the chance to be very hot and 2nd driest week of Summer - some pollination risk!
Rainfall trends from Jul - Aug
July temperature trends compared to last year show much of the country trending both warmer than last year and above average with the warmest July in 3 years.
July rainfall trends - again this could change to much drier if El Nino explodes into the strong phase.
We hope you enjoyed our first blog and we'll be back every week. For free 30-day outlooks visit www.weathertrends360.com. Paid subscriptions also available for our year-ahead zip code specific forecasts.
- Captain Kirk out.