Want to see the YEAR-AHEAD weekly Corn Belt weather forecast through July 2016? We thought so! :)
Aug 21, 2015
We’ll save the year-ahead forecast for last, but like any good novel you should always start at the beginning.
While the media is hyping up the “Godzilla El Nino” of all time and the Old Farmer’s Almanac is out with another epic Winter forecast we thought we’d bring some reality to the discussion and what it means for the Corn Belt. First, no El Nino is the same as there are 23 other oceanic and solar cycles that also play a significant role in driving the weather here on Earth. A couple of those oceanic indices are less well known like PDO – a 30-year cold/warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cycle where the Northern Pacific trends colder than average ocean temperatures (1946-1975) followed by warmer than average (1976-2006). Another oceanic index getting some press is “The Blob” or more scientifically called the EPO index. While “The Blob” is still there it’s much weaker than the past couple years which will play a role in the Winter forecast below. We’re not going to explain all these indices here as that would be a novel longer than Moby Dick and in the age of Twitter we understand you want your information in 140 characters or less...we'll shoot for a 1,000 words or less with some pretty pictures. :)
THE NEXT 2-WEEKS – bottom line it appears we’re entering a much warmer and drier pattern than last year which brought below normal temperatures in Sept-Nov and the wettest conditions in decades…NOT THIS YEAR.
Current Soil Moisture (4-16" depth) will dry out over the weeks ahead across the Corn Belt.
Forecast soil moisture levels by Friday 4 September 2015
2-Week Temperature and Rainfall Outlook
The next couple weeks and the next couple months for that matter look to trend at least 2F warmer than last year across the Corn Belt as a whole with 6% more growing degree days (GDDs). Rainfall overall appears to trend the driest since 1999 for the Corn Belt as a whole the next couple months which will continue to stress some crops in the Northwest Corn Belt where there are pockets of crop stress. The positive is a better harvesting season with less field condition challenges.
RECORD EL NINO: It’s almost certain it will be the strongest El Nino of the past 100 years with a peak in the record category by December but then falling to strong levels mid-winter and then crashing to neutral by Summer 2016. It will continue to plummet to moderate La Nina by Fall next year and this will result in dramatic and abrupt shifts in the weather patterns across the U.S. and world over the next year.
Ocean water temperatures vs last year
El Nino Forecast - record breaking event to eclipse 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.
WINTER AND THE 2016 FORECAST THROUGH JULY: Despite the Old Farmer’s Almanac prediction of another gloom and doom winter (last year really wasn’t that bad in the Corn Belt and Central U.S.) we disagree with the outlook. Last year we reached a weak El Nino status in December (record warm December across the U.S.) and then it collapsed allowing the Polar Jet Stream to trump the weak Sub-Tropical Jet Stream. This year will be a much stronger El Nino so even as it weakens this Winter it will remain in the strong category through February allowing the Sub-Tropical Jet Stream to dominate the U.S. keeping the Polar Jet further north with more Polar Vortex intrusions into Eastern Europe.
Yes there will be some cold and snowy periods in middle January, early February and middle March but not the epic hype we hear in the media this week. Early Spring looks cold with a late freeze in early May as El Nino collapses allowing the Polar Jet to move into the U.S. and then as we rapidly push toward La Nina and cold PDO in Summer next year. wt360 expects the hottest Summer since 2012 and a moderate to severe drought across much of the Eastern half of the U.S. and especially the Midwest Corn Belt. Yes we think Corn goes to $6.50 by Summer next year.
Corn Belt Weekly Temperature Trend Forecast vs Last Year
Corn Belt Weekly Precipitation Forecast vs Last Year:
To see your short range outlooks in a clean page without ads visit http://www.weathertrends360.com/Dashboard. The Dashboard and maps pages show 1-14 day forecasts for temperatures, rainfall amounts, soil moisture, soil temperatures, wind speed/direction, humidity, UV indices, moon and sun data, etc.
For year-ahead zip code specific forecasts visit our plans page http://www.weathertrends360.com/Plans. Here are some of the companies that rely on our year-ahead forecasts and business/ag predictive analytics over the past 12 years.
Have a great weekend folks! – Captain Kirk out.