How did the Summer 2015 Forecasts Verify...and are you ready for a dramatically different Fall?
Sep 01, 2015
The meteorological Summer (1 June – 31 August) is officially in the record books so thought we’d take a look at how the Summer forecasts verified. While most companies and governments issued their Summer forecast in late May, two actually produced theirs 8-11 months ahead – weathertrends360 and the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Here are the temperature outlooks and what actually happened.
The advantages of wt360 and the Almanacs is they do attempt to give more weekly detail by region which is more insightful than one 90-day map. While most of these forecasts are based on Physics based modeling or analogs, wt360 uses a lot more statistics and 24 climate cycles which in our opinion will outperform traditional meteorological techniques. Kind of ironic that the Pennsyl’tucky based weather companies outperformed most!
Overall the Summer ended up trending the warmest in 3 years for the U.S. overall (slightly above average nationally)
and the driest in 3 years (but still a tad above average nationally).
Some of the forecasts were way too hot or cold so the middle of the road, more average outlooks did better this go around.
Weathertrends360’s year-ahead weekly temperature and precipitation trends did pretty well capturing the hotter, drier, wetter periods a year in advance.
So how about Fall 2015 (Sep – Nov)? Some are still calling for a very cold Fall like last year but we’re polar opposite and completely opposite last year. Last year was the coldest Fall in 18 years across the Corn Belt, this year the warmest in 8 years with much above average temperatures.
Last Fall was also very snowy trending the most in 15 years; this year the least in 8 years! Rainfall was above average last year; below average this year.
The frequency of 32F cold days was well above average last year (very cold) while this year should have the fewest cold/frosty Fall days in 25 years across the Corn Belt.
This all adds up to a less challenging harvesting season with much warmer, drier, much less snowy Fall season. With El Nino now approaching record strong levels, a warm Fall and Winter is still projected by wt360 along with a very severe drought in Summer 2016!!!! Go long on Corn as we are still very bullish on $6.50 Corn this time next year due to a severe drought.
To see your free 14-day forecast by zip code visit http://www.weathertrends360.com/Dashboard
To see your free 30-day forecast by zip code with registered e-mail visit http://www.weathertrends360.com/Calendar
To see your 11-month ahead forecast for $299.40 a year visit http://www.weathertrends360.com/Plans
- Captain Kirk out.