WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 38 million bushels this month.
Feed and residual use is projected 35 million bushels higher as December 1 stocks, reported in the
January Grain Stocks, indicate higher-than-expected disappearance during September-November.
Seed use is raised 2 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported in Winter Wheat Seedings.
Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged; however, Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to date and the increasing competitiveness of SRW wheat in world markets. All wheat imports are also unchanged, but small adjustments raise projected HRW wheat imports 5 million bushels and reduce Hard Red Spring wheat and Durum imports by a
combined 5 million bushels.
The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $8.15 per bushel, based on prices reported to date.
Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected slightly lower based on reduced production prospects in Argentina and lower reported production in Russia. Argentina production is reduced 0.5 million tons with lower expected harvested area and yields. Heavy December rains have increased expected area losses and harvest reports also suggest lower-than-expected yields. Russia production is lowered 0.3 million tons based on the latest government reports that reduce yields slightly.
Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are reduced slightly. Projected exports are lowered 0.5 million tons each for Argentina, Australia, and Canada, but raised 0.5 million tons for Russia and 0.2 million tons for Ukraine. Imports are raised 0.2 million tons for Iran. Feed and residual use for Russia is lowered 0.5 million tons as available domestic supplies tighten. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected slightly lower with increases for Australia, Canada, and Iran mostly offset by reductions for the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.