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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
The question is will the Chinese bite on the rhetoric or will they actually wait this year until the bushels from Brazil starting hitting their docks before they cancel the additional US cargoes? I am telling you now if the Chinese don't start making cancelations soon and Brazil runs into any type of early exporting problems soybean prices have to travel a lot higher in order to ration demand. Before you get yourself insanely bulled-up just keep in mind last year the early beans in Brazil were going to help replenish their domestic supplies, which was cause for some of the export delay. I suspect this year the early beans will head straight to the exporters to expedite the process. As for 2014/15 soy prices, the story remains the same. Without some type of major weather hiccup we are looking at 15-18 million more metric tons of production out of South America and NEW record soy acres going in the ground here in the US (my guess, 4-6 million more acres than last year). Moral of the story, if the weather cooperates, which is a big if, supply will over run demand like "Grant took Richmond." We will go from an insanely tight supply pipeline to swimming in beans quicker than you can blink an eye. Make sure you are understanding the game and the rules right now, they could change in a real hurry. Click here for my daily report...
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