The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.
July corn had a tough trading day Tuesday as the contract finished just off its lows at $3.48 ½, which was 5 ½ cents lower. Fund liquidation appears to be taking place and that was the theme with about 15 minutes to go in today’s session. We are right back down to the low end of the range for corn. The weather still looks favorable for most areas throughout the corn belt for the next 6-10 days. As is the case with any weather market day to day forecasts need to be monitored. We should continue to see strong progress with already planted crops and also areas that need to catch up. If the weather stays good through pollination, we will likely see December futures trade under $3.50 and head even lower towards harvest. If we were to see a weather problem her in the U.S. and/or in China this growing season we should see corn prices find a bottom in the coming months. We are hearing reports out of the West of farmers that are selling corn to make room for the upcoming wheat harvest. This could continue to put pressure on the corn market as we go forward. I still think we are positioned well at this time. For those producers that still need to get caught up on the hedge recommendations that we have issued please call your broker and discuss the available plan for your operation.
The soybean complex hung on to slight gains as the trading day came to a close. The July contract finished ½ cent higher at $9.32 ½. With the corn and wheat markets falling apart beans were still able to hang in there. Based on the fundamentals that we have right now we feel that the bean market may be susceptible to a further break from these levels if the weather continues to hold. The record South American crop continues to come online and global stocks this fall will be 45% larger than last year. We will still have to grow a crop here in the U.S. obviously, but if we do have trend line yields we could see much lower prices this fall. A lot can change (and usually does!) but if you are not caught up on sales I would look for a rally back towards $9.30-9.50 in November soybeans to do so. For those producers that have their hedges in place we would continue to stay hedged.
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