EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11/27/12
Nov 27, 2012
CBOT markets closed sharply higher with Kansas City Wheat leading the way. December KC Wheat closed 31 ½ cents higher at $9.15 ¾. Clearly the market is concerned with the record low winter wheat crop conditions that continue to decline on the weekly crop progress reports. Overly dry conditions are still forecasted in HRW country.
There is a lot of speculation over how drastic yields will be hurt by the early low crop ratings this year. There is still plenty of time between now and harvest which could help or hurt final production before it is all said and done. Either way the uncertainty of record low ratings in November can’t be good and may keep wheat prices supported. We have bounced off the low end of the range again and it looks strong technically.
December KC Wheat
The other weather market supporting grain prices is in Argentina. Wet weather has slowed planting progress for corn and raised quality concerns for wheat. Currently the USDA has Argentine corn production estimated to be 28 MMTs compared to 21 last year. Argentine corn is behind planting pace at just 50% complete.
We will continue to watch the 8am USDA sale announcements and Thursday export sales reports for direction, especially for soybeans. Today was the first day we haven’t seen soyoil sales in a while but the recent pickup in export demand has helped the price rally. Domestic fundamental news will likely be slow for the next 45 days and may keep prices wandering with the outside markets. If you would like to receive our expanded commentary including hedge recommendations, morning highlights, and/or morning automated call please sign up using the link below.
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