EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 7-19-2011
Jul 19, 2011
It was a volatile two sided trade today at the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn and wheat were called 20-25 cents higher on the open, but at mid-morning session the markets started to come off their highs. September corn finished 1 ¾ cents higher on the day and September wheat finished only 4 cents higher. November beans ended up closing 4 ¼ cents lower.
Yesterday crop progress showed a decline in conditions for both corn and soybeans which immediately put upside pressure on the market overnight. This morning’s weather models are putting a high pressure ridge back into the 11-15 day forecast.
The Brazilian President will decide whether to lower the ethanol blend rate from 25% down to 18-20% before August. At one point this year Brazil was actually importing US ethanol.
Weather is still dictating this market. We expect volatility to remain high as we go through pollination and during the morning/mid-day forecast updates. We want to remain with the current hedge recommendations. For anyone that wants more upside coverage on current hedges, we can look at September corn and soybean calls.
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