EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 8/24/12
Aug 24, 2012
Corn and wheat closed lower on Friday’s trading session while soybeans had double digit gains. For the week, December corn finished up 1 ¼ cents, November soybeans up 85 ¾ cents, and December wheat down 6 cents.
The extra soybean strength is a combination of recent positive crush numbers, strong export demand two weeks in a row, and poor pod counts. With Pro Farmer estimating a national average soybean yield at 34.8 bpa, we can’t afford to have strong demand. We see the potential for soybeans to continue its upward move to ration more demand.
Pro Farmer also lowered its estimate for the national corn yield to 120.25 bpa. This is lower than the 123.4 which the USDA has used for their most recent estimate on the August Supply and Demand report. At 120.25 we are a little more neutral on our outlook for corn. We have started to ration demand and can’t afford a large break and see a jump in demand. At the same time we have started to see exports slow and feed demand rationing. A range between $7.60 and $8.60 is where we expect to stay for the short-medium turn.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report showed another massive increase to the long positions held by managed money in corn and soybeans (*using combined futures and options from Wednesday the 15th through Tuesday the 21st). The ‘managed money’ is now net long 342,893 contracts of corn which is an increase of 39,715. They are also net long 252,388 contracts of soybeans, an increase of 21,845! Clearly the funds continue to press their bets.
Please contact EHedger at 866-433-4371 if you would like to try our proprietary farm management software called AMMO. To learn more please visit www.ammoag.com.
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