The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Bob Utterback has more than 26 years of experience and offers producers a disciplined approach to marketing.
Harvest talk is beginning with many producers looking at better than expected yields and the potential for a surplus of unsold bushels. There will always be areas with spotty yields, too much moisture or late planting jitters with the potential for an early frost but the crop is out there and just how big is anyone’s guess. Next week the weather forecast is bearish towards the grains with warm temperatures throughout most of the growing areas. With each week that passes now through September, the threat of frost expectations will diminish and once again the trade’s focus will be on the growing supply.
Many are looking for the USDA to increase yield at the October Supply/Demand report which should set the tone for a sideways trading market until the market receives some form of news to suggest supply is being reduced. In our estimation, we see the low in corn being set in the cash market and the futures not moving much below the $3.50 level. There is more downside potential in soybeans with $10.16 being the next line of support. If that is broken there is the potential to go to the $9.55 level.
Now is when you should be making any marketing decisions prior to harvest. Between now and the end of October, we will be implementing buying strategies to help pay for 2015 hedges. If you have any questions, call our office.
If anyone feels they need to put structure into their risk management decision-making and would like to discuss marketing strategies, call Bob or Laura (1-800-832-1488). We will also try to answer questions in upcoming blogs and we welcome emails to firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com.
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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS IS SUBSTANTIAL AND EACH INVESTOR AND/OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER THIS IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING ADVICE IS BASED ON INFORMATION TAKEN FROM TRADES AND STATISTICAL SERVICES AND OTHER SOURCES THAT UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, INC. BELIEVES ARE RELIABLE. WE DO NOT GUARANTEE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. TRADING ADVICE REFLECTS OUR GOOD FAITH JUDGMENT AT A SPECIFIC TIME AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE ADVICE WE GIVE WILL RESULT IN PROFITABLE TRADES.