An update on the Weather!
Sep 10, 2009
We’ve had a lot of response to our weather bulletin, therefore I am posting today’s update for your review.
**** WEATHER BULLETIN *** SEPT. 9
The national morning radar shows a thunderstorm cluster which developed overnight across eastern and southeastern Kansas is now moving into southwest Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. There are a few additioanl scattered showers over far southeastern Kentucky and southwest Virgina.
There are no significant changes in the forecast and the medium-range or in the 6 to 10 day. All weather models continued to develop a large upper Low which drops in from Canada into the Plains Sept. 11 to Sept. 14. The interaction between this large Upper Low... it's surface reflection... and the large High over eastern Canada will bring in significant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Delta. Then it will move northward into various portions of the eastern Plains and the Western Corn Belt, which will result in significant showers and thunderstorms developing over these areas.
There is some model uncertainty as to whether or not the significant rains will reach the Eastern Corn Belt Sept. 15.
Over in the eastern Pacific and the West Coast, a strong piece of energy in the jet stream will develop a new trough Sept. 16 and 17, which will move into the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada Sept. 17 and 18. The European model uses this new surge of energy to develop a significant cold High over central Canada which track southeast across the northern Great Lakes and then through Maine by Sept. 20.
If, IF, this High track were to drop far enough to the South it could bring a frost to the Great Lakes area.... and would definitely bring one to eastern Ontario and northern New England. But the model does not show that at this particular time. In fact the European weather model in the 11- to 15-day forecast actually shows a significant warm-up because the energy from the Pacific drives into the Plains and Midwest which insures the cold air stays north of the U.S. and Canada border.
The 0z GFS and 0z CMC are significantly different. They also have a pretty cold high a day can that's close to coming into the CONUS... but these two are the models do in fact drive is cold air mass into the US with the day 15 0z GFS showing a serious cold air outbreak / Frost threat Sept. 22 to 24. The GFS ensemble is very supportive of this colder pattern and shows a pretty significant trough over the Midwest and East Coast after Sept. 22.
Clearly the long-range models in the 11 to 15 day forecast and their respective ensembles are diametrically opposed in their solutions which should lead you to exercise a good deal of caution with regard to whether or not one of these solutions is going to verify. At this point we simply don't know. The MJO which is now about to enter PHASE 5... and it seems that the MJO will reach phase 6 which could help bring about the colder scenario.
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