Grain Markets Up on Weather Concerns
Apr 29, 2009
Here are the comments from our weather advisor. He’s been on the money for the last several weeks.
Bottom line: Farmers are going to be slow in getting the crop into the ground before mid-May. I would suggest the potential is building for a major high in May but it will be difficult to sell because of concern about corn pollination. If there was ever a good argument for buying in the money puts I believe this will be the case. Once we get past the July Supply/Demand report I would look to convert the puts to cash sales or short futures to reduce the time value decay cost. You need to be looking at our web site for complete details about how we are making catch-up sales. For information call Laura at 1-800-832-1488
WXRISK.COM WEDNESDAY MORNING WEATHER
Not only have the weather models not changed in the overnight but if anything the pattern looks worse over the next 10 to 14 days than it did yesterday. By worse I mean more rain systems and no break in the pattern through MAY 10 -12... if then.
There are no changes in the short range forecast. The Wednesday morning radar shows our new system bringing moderate to significant rain over central and eastern portions of OK TX and NEB.... and into eastern SD with a lighter amounts over southern MN and SD. There are no changes in how the model for handling the system. Low pressure will develop over eastern KS and MO by the evening and tracked through the heart of the WCB into the lower Great Lakes Thursday night. This will bring a significant rain event back into the Midwest over the next 48 hours.
We also still have the front which moved through the Midwest Tuesday and through the Northeast last night... now stalled in a WSW - ENE orientation from southern MO to KY into lower WVA and over the Washington, DC metro area.
Weather models still show a fairly strong and chilly HIGH coming out of Southwest Canada into the central and upper Plains and Midwest this weekend. Temperatures will run Below Normal over these areas but at least it will be dry for a few days.
However that front stalled over the Deep South is going to become a problem because a New Low-pressure will develop over western TX on Sunday then moved to the TN Valley on Monday and into the ECB on Tuesday with another significant rain event.
Already however the next energy racing in on the extremely powerful Pacific jet will be developing a new rain threat for the Plains by May 6 ... for the Midwest on May 7... followed by another significant system coming out of the West coast into the Plains & Midwest by May 10.
And the hits just keep on coming.
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