Grains Back Off, Corn Closes Below Support
Oct 25, 2012
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Grains were on the defensive today with front month corn, wheat and soybeans all closing lower on the day. Export sales this morning were solid for wheat but disappointing for corn and soybeans. The biggest take away from the export sales report is the cancellations from China and unknown destinations which are also likely China. Corn had cancellations of 120,300 mt from China, and soybeans had 303,400 mt cancellations from unknown. This indicates that the recent and small rally in grains was enough to price out some export demand again.
The soybean chart still looks ok for a bounce as soybeans weigh the bullish short term situation with low US stocks and nowhere else to go vs. the bearish long term situation with South America looking like they could have a monster of a crop. Soybeans could stay very volatile as we get deeper into the South America weather market. Brazil will be going through pod setting in January and February. If all goes well, this could put in highs for soybeans at least until we get into the US growing season. Also, I have to believe that in the near term China is looking to buy as little amount of US soybeans as possible as long as South America looks good because they know that if they are patient they may have the chance to buy soybeans at a $2-$3 discount in a few months.
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The corn chart looks like we could be starting to roll over again. We do have support just below the corn market at $7.32, but after that we have a clear shot down to September lows of $7.05. Today we closed below key mowing average support and the pivotal $7.50 cent mark. Fundamentally, export demand is almost nonexistent right now and trade expectations are for a bearish increase in yield and ending stocks on the November USDA report. Lat Friday's Cattle on Feed report showed September placements at 81% of last year, this is the lowest September placement number since 1996 and the lowest number of cattle on feed since 1996. Corn had enjoyed support from firming soybean prices but reasserted its bearish enthusiasm today. Corn still has a gap in the chart between $6.85 and $6.75 that was left over the July 4th holiday and this could be a likely downside target on of before the November report.
Overall grains could stay volatile through next years growing season as we watch South American weather closely and we watch our weather looking for replacement of subsoil moisture. But for now it seems that the bulk of the bullish news might be behind us. Demand for soybeans is ok at these prices but this may be short lived as we move through the South American growing season. Demand for corn is noticeably struggling with consistently poor export sales figures and the lowest September cattle placements since 1996. For my money, I have to be concerned about the downside potential at this point and I need to be looking out for the next 2-3 years. the bottom line is that we could be on or two solid growing seasons away from swinging prices to the other extreme.
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With high volatility in a market, option strategies may be a good tool for hedgers and specs alike.
December Corn Daily chart:
November Soybeans Daily chart:
All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn above $7.00 and new crop soybeans above $15.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.
Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or firstname.lastname@example.org
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