Grains Continue to Bounce off Recent Lows
Nov 20, 2012
TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
The grains continued their bounce off of recent lows today in choppy nervous trade. There was little news to go on this AM, however there were some rumors of interest of US soybeans out of the Pacific Northwest. This may have helped the soybeans come back from double digit losses in the night session and lead the grains higher on the day. Aside from that the bounce has been seen by most as being technical in nature. Wheat and soybeans had been in a very oversold condition and corn held recent lows again on Friday sparking some bottom picking buying interest.
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The macro economic picture continues to be fuzzy with continued issues in Europe, global unrest, and the US fiscal cliff. Feelings on these matters have gotten a little more warm and fuzzy in the last few days but none of these problems have gone away. I assume that the macro economics will continue to be a factor in the grain markets for some time and will need to be watched.
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The rally off of lows looks to be mostly corrective in nature. If this is the case it could be providing producers with some good pricing opportunities. We are not getting too aggressive quite yet as we wait to see the extent of this strength, but will do so on signs of weakness.
With high volatility in a market, option strategies may be a good tool for hedgers and specs alike.
December Corn Daily chart:
January Soybeans Daily chart:
December Wheat Daily chart:
All this means that speculators should be looking for opportunities and producers need to look to lock up some prices while we have new crop corn above $7.00 and new crop soybeans above $15.00. Give me a call for some ideas. In particular, producers looking to hedge all or a portion of their production may be rather interested in some of the options / options-futures strategies that I am currently using.
In my mind there has to be a balance. Neither technical nor fundamental analysis alone is enough to be consistent.
Please give me a call for a trade recommendation, and we can put together a trade strategy tailored to your needs.
Ted Seifried (312) 277-0113 or firstname.lastname@example.org
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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. This commentary should be conveyed as a solicitation for entry into derivitives transactions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed. The limited risk characteristic of options refers to long options only; and refers to the amount of the loss, which is defined as premium paid on the option(s) plus commissions.
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