Walsh Commercial Hedging 4/09/12
Apr 09, 2012
Good afternoon. The grain complex experienced a choppy two-sided trade during the day session after trading higher in the overnight trade but falling apart in the middle of the night. May corn finished at 649, down 9 1/4 while new crop December corn closed unchanged. Unwinding of old/new crop corn spreads throughout the day weighed on old crop corn. May soybeans finished down 3 at 1431 and new crop November beans was up a ½ cent at 1382. Traders liquidated long holdings in corn and beans amid worries of possible bearish surprises in the WASDE report tomorrow morning. Wheat turned up a few cents closing up 4 ½ cents at 643 on position squaring before the report. U.S corn supplies in the report are expected to fall to a 16-year low creating razor-thin supplies before the fall harvest. Here are the following tables for grain and bean carryouts:
Average Range USDA(11/12)March
Corn 0.717 0.626-0.801 0.801
Soybeans 0.246 0.225-0.275 0.275
Wheat 0.796 0.740-0.825 0.825
Bean and corn traders will also find out how much the corn and bean production in South America is going to be down, too. I could see a surprise in soybean production in either Argentina or Brazil.
Crop progress just came out and showed that corn was 7% planted vs. 3% last week. Illinois came in at 17% planted vs. 5 % last week. I expect that number to explode after this week because the insurance safe dates will have been met and the 10-15 day weather outlook looks favorable for planting. However, Mother Nature can throw a curve anytime so be prepared.
Give us a call to hear what we’re doing to help protect our producers at 800.933.5449 or email us at email@example.com
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