Markets

Row Crops Extend Gains Ahead of China Summit: Is a Bull Market Emerging?

Wed, 13 May 2026 16:25:01 GMT

Grains were mostly higher early Wednesday. Livestock started mixed then turned higher as well.

Has Wheat Priced in Production Cuts?
After limit up closes on Tuesday, the winter wheat market started mixed Wednesday under expanded limits.

Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says futures were pausing to digest USDA’s big production cut on winter wheat to the lowest level since 1972.

He thinks additional upside is limited as the market has factored the cuts into the market. “I think for the time being, yeah, it’s priced in. We’re struggling to get the European wheat complex to follow along. I think we’re going to need some support from that market to extend this rally on the U.S. wheat side.”

Kansas Wheat Tour Results
Meanwhile the Wheat Quality Council is holding their annual tour through Kansas this week with a summary on Thursday. The first day of the tour, showed a 38.3 bushel per acre yield versus 50.5 last year.

That surprised Gieseke. “I mean 38 isn’t too far off from the five-year average closer to 45. It’s just been extremely dry, I mean it started out hot and low moisture and then you throw in a frost and a freeze and now it’s still staying dry. So, I would have expected a bigger deeper cut than you know six to seven bushels.”

Abandonment rate will be the big key he says especially with higher diesel costs providing little incentive to harvest the crop, even with higher wheat prices.

“Higher diesel costs. I mean, that’s that’s something that the farmer is going to get charged with fuel surcharges. We all know feed trucks are charging fuel surcharges and anything with transportation is going to be higher input costs. If you have a marginal wheat crop, I just kind of really question how much they’re going to be anticipating going to get it,” he explains.

Global Wheat Numbers
Digging into global wheat numbers in the WASDE he was looking at the data on Australian from the Foreign Ag Service regarding 2026 production and Canada.

“They were going to cut production in Australia due to lack of fertilizer or diesel they accounted for some of that but more so they the bigger side of the cuts that they made for the 26 crop was due to weather shifts accounting for El Nino. The WASDE actually did a pretty good job of funneling that into yesterday’s report. I think the Foreign Ag Service cut Australia production about 7 million metric ton year on year. I believe the WASDE cut it about six. So they did a good job of incorporating that into yesterday’s report. Canada actually also got cut. Foreign Ag Service also cut Canada’s production here beginning of April. So they did a good job of accounting for that in yesterday’s report.”

Corn Trading Higher, Global Stocks Tightest Since 2013
The WASDE did not provide much bullish fodder on the domestic balance sheets with new crop ending stocks at 1.957 billion bu. However, the global stocks were down 19.4 MMT from last year says Gieseke.

“I think the price trend will continue to push higher here from a world perspective that was the real story yesterday. I think it’s the stocks to use number once again we have to account for demand when we talk about total supplies here on grain moving forward because demand has increased so much on all these commodities with these lower prices. So, I mean a 21.1% world stocks to use number is as tight as it’s been since going back to 2018, which if you remember that’s pre-China finding 60 million metric ton of corn in their stocks,” he explains.

So, stocks are as tight as it’s been since 2013 and the corn market doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room.

Chart Breakout in Corn
Gieseke thinks the market is on the verge of a bull market or a chart breakout as the front month continuation chart shows higher highs for the last two months.

“I just pull up a monthly continuation chart and I just kind of look at that chart structure and say, you know, a monthly close at $5 or higher is probably going to be that next indicator for us, whether we’re stuck in a range. So the range would be, you know, 2024 low. The 2025 low is actually higher than the 24 low. But if we can get that close above $5, that would be a step in the right direction compared to the 2025 high, which was made last February. A close above $5 on front months would kind of set the stage for that next leg higher here,” he adds.

Corn demand has been strong, especially with record exports but what is the catalyst to get old crop corn above $5 with carryout still over 2.0 billion bu.? Would China business be the key or a weather issue?

“Given the time of year that we’re in, it’s without a doubt going to be supply side. You know how the Brazilian crop finishes off here or you know the Western Corn Belt here is very dry. I know this weather system moving in in the next week we’ll we’ll cover the I states pretty good but you got to remember last year’s crop was ultimately pushed higher because of these the Western Corn Belt actually had some very good yields last year. So, if this dry weather persists it’s going to be a supply lead rally,” he says.

E15 Vote in House
The corn market is supported not only by hopes of China business but the possibility of year-round E15 as the House votes on that bill on Wednesday.

However, Gieseke doesn’t see it as a huge market mover. “I think the market, it’s just going to get muted by everything else going on here this week. I’m not anticipating much of a move from it.”

Soybeans Gear up for China Summit
The soybean market has been gearing up for the China summit for several weeks now. The key will be will agriculture be a focus and it looks that way from the leaders traveling with the President.

“Yeah, it was a powerhouse roster that he brought over there, including the Cargill CEO. You know, today’s this week’s meeting as far as it leads to soybeans I’m not anticipating much more. So, I’m more so continue to watch the just the FOB price in Brazil and how it compares to the U.S. and that spread has closed here the kind of tightened up here the last month or so but the trend on both of those prices that continue to be higher. So, to me I think that’s more of a market mover than, you know, today’s or this week’s discussions in China.”

Market Anticipating 25 MMT of Soybeans
Still the market has been gearing up for 25 million metric tons of soybeans to be confirmed by China for this year. So it that isn’t part of the deal will soybeans sell off due to disappointment?

He says, “Only to the extent of Brazilian prices. Brazil is going to continue to be the floor of the market, and we shouldn’t need to be the cheapest soybean in the world. We just need to be competitive with Brazil’s exports. Again, if that spread between U.S. and Brazil stays within 50, 60 cents of each other here during our harvest or if the gap can close, I think we can meet that 25 million metric ton. It’s just way too early to write it off as we won’t.”

July Soybeans Take Out March High?
From a technical standpoint, July beans have not taken out the March highs although November keeps making some new highs for the move here.

Will July make new highs if China confirms any U.S. soybean business? He says,"There’s a gap on old crop beans in the $12.32 area, interday chart. So if we close that, that’d be a good check in the right direction.”

How high could November soybeans climb? “I mean, as far as new crop beans, $12.30 is going to be an area of interest for us to start hedging
some more.”

Soybean Oil Rally Stalling?
The soybean market has also rallied on the back of the soybean oil rally and the 60% increase in the RVO levels for biomass based diesel blending volume.

However, Gieseke says that rally is getting mature. “We’re going to date this back to January when it started to break out. A lot of the commodity indexes actually started to break out in January. Soybean oil was kind of the first of the ag sector or the grain sector to start to break out.Technical projection was just that weekly cup and handle formation that we’ve talked about before. It actually met that target here last week. So we’re actually not anticipating too much of a sell -off here in soybean oil. The rally has been extensive, but we’re really looking at meal kind of taking a little more of a leadership role here going forward for the next few weeks.”

Commodity Index Hits 2.5 Year High
The rally in bean oil has been on the heels of the surge in the diesel fuel heating oil and crude oil markets. Retail diesel prices hit record highs on Wednesday and coincide with inflation figures heating up with both the PPI and CPI rising.

So that continues to bring money into the commodities and grain markets.

He says, “The Bloomberg Commodity Index, we tracked that pretty closely. That took out 2022 highs. We really don’t see it slowing down. Typically, it might slow down, but we don’t see that trend reversing yet. To slow that down, you need something like, again, higher interest rates, unemployment picking up some sort of breaking point.”

Start of a Bull Market in Grains?
So do he anticipate money will continue to come into the grains because of that inflation risk and start a bull market like we saw back in 2020 after COVID?

“Yeah. I mean, I don’t see anything from a technical standpoint or monetary standpoint that says it’s short-lived. For right now, I’m just kind of staying out of the way and along for the ride.”

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Crop: Corn, Soybeans See Surprises

Tue, 12 May 2026 22:07:23 GMT

Grains ended higher Tuesday with limit up moves in winter wheat, livestock were mostly lower.

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Production
Both classes of winter wheat ended limit up on the day as USDA shocked the market with their aggressive production cuts in the May WASDE according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, StoneX.

USDA lowered wheat yield by 5.8 bu. per acre to 47.5 bu. and lowered all wheat production to 1.561 billion bu. which is below last year by 424 million bu. and the smallest crop since 1972.

Total winter wheat production was pegged at 1.048 billion bu. down 25% from 2025 drug down by a 36% cut to the hard red winter wheat crop.

He thinks production could be cut even further in the future. “I think we’ve seen quite a bit of deterioration here over the last couple of weeks. These are May 1 numbers, so we may see a little bit lower number. Industry tour this week should give us a bigger idea on that.”

Plus, his experience is when USDA makes a big jump on its first estimate, that typically means that there could be more moves coming. “Because they tend to be fairly conservative and don’t want to overshoot. They don’t like correcting back the other way.”

Abandonment is the Key
Suderman says the key is the percent abandonment of winter wheat acres.

“Now, the USDA’s abandonment number is pretty close to what we modeled, but how might high diesel prices affect that? Because as diesel prices increase, they increase the cost of running the combine over those acres, raising the break-even level at which you decide, is it worth actually taking the combine into the field? So we may push that abandonment a little bit higher.”

He thinks for Kansas a 17% abandonment rate is pretty reasonable but it may be much higher in Texas and Oklahoma, maybe Colorado than it will be elsewhere.

How High Do Wheat Prices Rally?
Hard red winter wheat made new highs on Tuesday and closed limit up but how high will prices run? Can futures get above $7.50?

Suderman explains, “Well, the interesting thing about wheat is it doesn’t necessarily trade supply and demand fundamentals so much as it trades headlines and emotions. We saw back in 2010 when there were headlines of fires and drought-stricken Russia, and we doubled the price of Chicago wheat in five weeks and then it came collapsing down. We realized, oh, we traded that story. The fundamentals aren’t that tight after all. So you can just run with emotions and the funds can go with it.”

Plus, he says funds can take wheat prices too far in either direction. “If you get a headline out of Iran saying the war is over type of a thing, you could see a collapse of crude oil really suck the air out of these grain and oil seed markets as well.”

Global Wheat Stocks Fall
Global wheat stocks also fell 4.2 MMT to 275 MMT but could those supplies shrink further with the talk of lower production and yield due to higher fertilizer prices and lower use?

“I think some of it comes down to do we actually see reductions in fertilizer application. One of the things we are seeing is a reduction in area because of high fertilizer and fuel prices. As we go into Argentina and Australia in the Southern hemisphere, we’re there in the middle of planting now. It looks like a 5% to 6% reduction in area.”

Corn Ending Stocks Down Slightly
USDA lowered corn production nearly 1 billion bu. to just under 16 billion bu.

New crop ending stocks were estimated at 1.957 billion bu. which is down 185 million bu. from last season and under the psychological 2.0 billion bu. mark. Still it was above trade estimates.

Suderman says his estimate was lower than that, “I was at 1.833 billion bushels. So I do think there’s some downside to this. But regardless, once you slip below 1.5 billion, that’s when the market starts caring, it wouldn’t take much of a yield drop in order to do that with this acreage.
I do think there’s a chance that we could see a little bit more of an acreage shift from corn to soybeans, maybe another million acres or so, helping to bring that down,”

He also thinks exports could get stronger moving ahead unless Brazil’s crop is further increased and cut U.S. exports.

Global Corn Stocks Fall
The bigger bullish factor is the huge draw down in global supplies in the new crop marketing year.

USDA estimates 277.5 MMT carryout for 2026-27 which is down 19.4 MMT from last season and could continue to decline next year.

“I think this is a pattern that we’re going to see more of the next year is drawing down supplies with high fuel, high fertilizer, increased uses for biofuels. The biofuel story, I think, is one that we’re just starting to tell now, going to use more feedstock,” he explains.

Brazil and Argentina Corn Production Hike
The impressive part was global corn stocks fell despite an increase in the Brazilian and Argentine crop by a total of 10 MMT.

Suderman says, “I think the market’s already priced a lot of that in. USDA just hasn’t put it into its balance sheet yet. So you look at Argentina,
USDA was holding down at 52 million metric tons or far too long. Many private estimates are 64 to 65 million metric tons. I think it’s probably closer to 60 million metric tons. USDA is now at 57. We’re at 58. Brazil could go a little bit higher as well.”

He stresses that Brazil is using a lot more corn for ethanol and is increasing its blend from 30% to 32%.

USDA Cuts Soybean Ending Stocks
USDA lowered old crop ending stocks for soybeans down to 340 million bu. with new crop down to 310 million bu. despite 3.5 million more acres.

Suderman says biofuels demand helped to push the crush figure up to 2.730 billion bushels for 2026-27 and there is a possibility that number could go higher.

“The question is going to be exports. As I said, USDA went up on their exports, so 1.603 billion bushels for exports next year, up 100 million bushels.”

He thinks that’s a stretch. “China only buys about 12 million metric tons. I don’t see them buying the 25 million metric tons because A, these numbers show that we don’t have it and they don’t have the room in their reserve for it. As high prices our beans are relative to Brazil beans, that’s where they would go is in their reserve and they don’t have the room for it.”

So, Suderman predicts China will buy soybeans but 12 MMT or less. “How much less is the question.”

China to Buy Corn and Wheat, Not Soybeans?
USDA in the May WASDE pegged China’s soybean stocks nearly steady, but other crops are expected to see draw downs.

“When you look at their wheat stocks at about a 10-year low, their corn stocks at about 13-year low, could we possibly see wheat and corn in the trade deal rather than all the soybeans everybody’s talking about? I think that’s a real possibility. We should learn that in a couple of days.”

If China only buys 12-13 MMT that is half of what they said they would purchase and that would be a disappointment to the market. So could it weigh on prices?

Suderman says, “I think with a strong biofuel program in the end, we would end up with ending stocks similar to where they are now. And I think domestic demand is what’s really going to be driving it. If they didn’t buy anything, then that would be a problem. If they buy 12 million metric tons, I think that keeps us well balanced in here, particularly with fuel prices staying high, the demand for biofuels.”

He doesn’t expect China to buy cotton as part of the deal because they are able to source those needs from Brazil.

Beef may also be off the table as President Trump wants to keep U.S. prices down especially ahead of the mid term elections.

Cattle Market Fears Imports
The cattle market has been down the last couple of sessions on fears of increased beef imports.

President Trump has backed off his executive order to eliminate the tariff rate quotas on beef imports but the market is not convinced.

He says, “A little over a 26% tariff that Brazil has to pay on what it exports to the United States right now. If you wipe that out, that suddenly drops their beef prices well below where we’re at currently here in the United States and would be expected to significantly increase exports to the United States.”

Suderman says President Trump is focused on bringing down food prices and the CPI data Tuesday did not support that goal.

“We once again saw those food prices being a significant significant contributor to inflation and beef is right at the top of the list there. And so he’s trying to do that ahead of the elections. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that at all,” he says.

Cattle Market Top?
The administration has also announced stepped up efforts on anti-competitive practices with a DOJ investigation of the big four meat packers.

So is that going to top the market like it did back in October of 2025 and cause fund liquidation?

“I’ve been wrong on that so many times this year. I hate to say it again. It certainly does suggest maybe a near-term top. But every time we expect that, we come back to the reality of tight domestic supplies,” he says.

The consumer is still spending, and the data has really been supporting the consumer continuing to spend he says.

” The question is, is how much we are effectively able to increase the supply with those increased imports. We’re already importing record levels. What’s our capacity for further adding to that? Because it looks like the consumer’s going to continue to buy if we can. significantly increases imports. Then we can see those beef prices come down and we start to see the reduction then in the prices for the live cattle.”

The key is cash and after record prices last week for cattle the packers are already paying $260 and $400 already this week.

Grains Rally on War, WASDE, China Meeting: Cattle Hit by Beef Import Fear

Mon, 11 May 2026 21:51:39 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended higher Monday with cattle mostly lower.

Grains Add Risk Premium
Grains markets were higher on Monday adding risk premium tied to the breakdown of the peace talks with Iran over the weekend and higher energy prices.

Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says both sides rejected the deal and so funds were buying and as long as crude oil stays at high prices that will bring in inflationary buying.

“I think you move some of those investors from the equity markets to the grain side, one on inflationary concerns, but two, just saying these things are undervalued. We know we have plenty of supplies at the present time but that could change. But let’s just take some money and put over there. And I think that was really the catalyst that it got started. Now we got to see what it takes to get it to go further,” he explains.

Big News Week....Including China Summit
The other factor that is moving the grain markets and bringing in fund buying is optimism about ag purchases as part of this week’s China summit between President Trump and President Xi.

Soybeans have been adding premium heading into the meeting according to Boddicker. “The market always gets excited when President Xi and President Trump are going to get together, knowing great things are going to happen, but we’ll see if it does or not. You know, in the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz closed that might be more of an incentive for China to come in and do some things with the U.S. to try to get some concessions and get that opened back up.”

How Much China Business Priced Into Soybeans?
But how much of the soybean purchase agreements with China is already priced into the soybean market?

Boddicker says, “One would have to think that most of it is. We are here in the seasonal time, on the beans where you put some highs in, but nothing saying you couldn’t have. But when you have these types of summits most of it’s priced in ahead of time, unless there’s some really huge surprise that you’re not thinking of.”

China Buying Other Ag Goods?
The other key is whether or not China buys other ag products beyond soybeans as the grain market is already pricing some of that in as well.

“One ship can keep all afloat sometimes, and I think that’s helping. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if China did some corn and some wheat in here, but time will tell if they do,” he adds.

Running Into Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans may have stalled out though running into chart resistance on Monday.

Could the market break above those recent highs with some good news from China?

Boddicker says, “I think it’s a possibility. You know, if I were a producer and I didn’t have much done on new crop beans somewhere from here to $12, I would be pricing somewhere whether that be in the cash or in the futures. If I did futures, if I started going back over $12 or $12.60 or so. I’d probably exit that and see where it went because I’d have a breakout at that point. But I think it’s not a bad area to do some things.”

July corn is also nearing the double top from last week at $4.78 1/2 but Boddicker thinks that mark could be retested.

“I think it’s a possibility. After hitting chart resistance you really thought this thing could break back to $4.50 to $4.60 and you went to $4.61, which I think was great support. And that’s a 25, 26 cent break, which would be about right,” he says.

Boddicker thinks the corn market needs to get a supply shock from weather or a demand shock from the China summit to get through overhead resistance.

He probably needs some news to get going in here with the supplies we got to do, whether that’s weather or something out of the China summit in here.

May WASDE Positioning
The grain market was also gearing up for the May WASDE with little change expected in the old crop balance sheets.

The focus will be on the first new crop estimates of the season and the trade is anticipating soybean production to be up 183 million bu. from last year at 4.445 billion bu. due to a 3.5 million acre increase in acreage. Yet, the ending stocks are estimated to be up only 19 million bu. from last year at 364 million.

Corn production could be down over 1 billion bu. from last year with acreage cut nearly 3.5 million against a trendline yield of 183 bu. That brings ending stocks down nearly 200 million bu. to 1.933 billion bu.

Boddicker says that is largely priced into the corn market.

Winter wheat production is expected to fall 200 to 250 million bushels below last year with ending stocks down to 833 million bu.

Boddicker says that is reasonable with the problems in the hard red winter wheat crop.

“I think you get a lot of areas that are dry and that wheat’s really gotten hurt. The next two or three weeks, as you know, is going to be critical. But just where it goes from this point, I’m
not sure. But I think there could be some surprises there. But whether they’re going to bring it out now or later, time will tell us,” he says.

Kansas Wheat Quality Tour
The size of the Kansas wheat crop will at least be determined by scouts on this week’s Wheat Quality Tour but will it move the market?

Boddicker says, “The trade has a lot of that priced in with looking at bad conditions that we’ve seen. We got a little improvement last Monday on the report but could they come back and say, hey, there’s more acres that we’re going to destroy here. That could be the real surprise.”

Exports and Inspections
The corn market saw flash sales on Monday morning of 15 million bu. of corn to Mexico, split between old and new crop. South Korea also bought 5.8 million bu. of corn.

Weekly export inspections were strong on corn at 66.6 million bu. with the year to date total up 30% from last year.

Soybeans export inspection were at 24.1 million bu. which are solid for this time of year, but the total is still 23% below last year.

Wheat export inspections were 18.8 million bu. and now total 840 million bu. which is up 13%.

Boddicker says that data was mostly supportive and reflects a change in attitude by many countries that are stockpiling grain.

“A few months ago, I think we can go back and say that we changed the attitude of that importer to say, I’m no longer going to buy hand to mouth. I better put something in reserve just in case more gets out of hand with the American and Iranian war and other things going on in the world,” he explains.

Cattle Market Hit by Beef Import Hike
Cattle futures were mostly lower except for nearby contracts reversing the strong opening.

The market reacted to President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations to curb record high beef prices.

Boddicker says, “What can break the camels back? When President Trump came out and said that he’s going to drop the tariffs on Brazilian beef and other countries to get more beef in the U.S.”

He says this caused funds and algorithm traders to again liquidate on concerns that the government is getting involved in trying to get beef prices down at the grocery store.

“We looked at preliminary open interest numbers from the CME this morning were looking like we were down 2,100 contracts, which would have meant long liquidation on Friday on the sell-off. And then when they came up with final numbers, it was a plus 3,900. Again, a 6,000 contract swing indicating there was more new selling on Friday. Something wreaks in Denmark on that much of discrimination or discrepancy between those reports,” he adds.

Cattle Market Topping Action?
However, it is hard to call a top in this type of market he says.

“We’ve seen this action before and every time it’s come back. When we look at some cyclical things, you’re looking for some intermediate term highs in both feeder cattle and fat cattle in May. So could we have done that already? We could. I think only time is going to answer it. But this market, as we all know, is fundamentally is strong but is still headline driven,” he says.

The market also failed to rally on record cash trade which topped at $260 in the North and don’t forget the DOJ probe announcement on Friday.

“The only thing that bugs me on that is what are we going to find out? We’re just getting settlements from the last DOJ probe. What are we going to do different this time than we did last time?”

Hog Bounce
Lean hog futures bounced off the new contract lows scored on Friday. So was this just a one day pop?

Boddicker says he was encouraged the summer months at least held chart support after testing it the last several sessions and it came as cattle futures fell.

Can the continue to market recover?

He says, “It feels like we maybe have the high end for the year but a $5, $6 rally would not be unexpected,”

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:32 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

High Stakes: Trump-Xi Summit, WASDE and E15 Set Up Crucial Week for Ag Commodity Markets

Mon, 11 May 2026 10:48:18 GMT

A faltering spring rally for grains and the soy complex may hang in the balance as producers and traders prepare for a week jam-packed with potentially market-moving events.

On Tuesday, USDA will deliver its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will offer the department’s initial outlook for the new crop year.
On Wednesday, the House is slated to vote on long-sought legislation to green-light year-round sales of E15.
What is likely to be the main event, President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China Thursday and Friday, where a meeting with leader Xi Jinping is hoped to bring affirmation that Beijing will follow through on commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and possibly other agricultural goods.

There’s also the Iran war, which in the past week overshadowed individual market fundamentals as a U.S. proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict sparked a crude selloff that dragged grain markets back from recent highs.

Let’s break down what’s at stake:

May WASDE

While the May outlook often sets the initial tone for the new crop year, the timing of the forecast during corn and soybean planting season leaves high potential for changes later in the year, with both acreage and yield still fluid.

Over the past 30 years, on average, USDA’s initial forecast for soybean ending stocks is 78 million bushels higher than the final estimate. For corn, that disparity is even wider at 129 million bushels higher than the initial forecast. With fuel and fertilizer prices rising sharply this spring, that further exacerbates the variability around potential yields as farmers may cut inputs to save costs.

Due to winter wheat already being planted and the agency including survey yield data in this report, the margin of error in ending stocks is smaller and averages 51 million bushels lower than the final.

The May WASDE is generally neutral in terms of the direction it moves the price of row crops based on these trends the past 30 years:

July HRW and SRW wheat futures ended the day of the WASDE release higher 14 times
December corn higher 16 times
November soybeans higher 12 times

In absolute values, the change in price is 11 3/4 cents for July HRW wheat, 10 1/4 cents for July SRW wheat, 7 cents for December corn and 11 1/4 cents for November soybeans. Still, outliers are possible. 2022’s initial forecast sent wheat futures soaring, with KC July wheat rising 69 1/2 cents following the release that compounded on worries of lower production from the Black Sea at that time.

E15

After being once again left on the cutting-room floor during legislative wrangling over the farm bill, E15 legislation is slated for a House vote. Following farm bill passage last month, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson said a vote on standalone legislation would take place on May 13 . High fuel prices driven by the Iran war have intensified bipartisan pressure to pass the bill before the midterm elections, though oil-state opposition remains a hurdle.

It isn’t yet clear a vote will take place. Full passage would bolster biofuel demand at the margin, while a successful House vote would perhaps provide a timely psychological lift for corn futures.

Trump-Xi Summit

The postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting in mid-March sent soybeans into a tailspin , underlining the stakes surrounding the rescheduled summit. Soybean producers want to hear affirmation – from Beijing – that China is prepared to follow through on what the White House has said is a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans per calendar year for the next three years. That’s less than what China was buying before Beijing’s boycott of U.S. purchases that undercut the market last year. China has yet to affirm specific targets.

Soybean exports picked up as China resumed purchases after Trump and Xi struck a one-year trade truce in October, but continue to run behind the pace necessary to hit USDA’s current marketing year projection of 1.54 million bushels.

(Pro Farmer)

The good news is that such a commitment may be low-hanging fruit. What’s more, reports have portrayed Chinese negotiators as open to purchases of an array of agricultural goods, including beef, poultry and non-soybean row crops – in addition to soybeans. Trade watchers say an agreement that would see China buy agricultural goods and aircraft alongside further tariff reductions may be the summit’s most likely outcome, with thornier issues kicked down the road.

A deal could trigger a relief rally, but risks remain. Friction over the Iran war, AI guardrails and Taiwan could make Xi reluctant to commit. Given how sensitive soybeans have been to China-related headlines, a disappointing outcome could quickly rattle the market.

The War and the Market

The nosedive by crude-oil futures this past week dragged corn, wheat and soybeans back from new highs, raising questions about the staying power of a budding spring rally that saw December corn briefly push above the $5 a bushel mark. The coming week will see market participants run a gauntlet of market-moving fundamental events that may end up setting near-term direction.

Soybeans Strong Heading Into China Summit

Sat, 09 May 2026 01:08:38 GMT

For the week July corn was 9 cents lower, December corn was down 5 ¾, July soybeans gained 4 ¾, November soybeans added 6 ¾, July soybean meal was $.40 higher, July bean oil lost 84 points, July soft red winter wheatlost 18 ¾, July hard red winter lost 18 ¾, July hard red spring wheat fell 24.

Strong Week in Soybeans on China Hopes
Soybeans ended sharply higher on Friday and posted higher weekly closes on optimism about the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on May 14-15 in Beijing.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.

In late October, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans for the current year and 25 MMT for the three years following. President Trump followed that up with a social media post on February 4 indicating China would be buying an additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans.

Gulke says Friday’s rally in soybeans was impressive and the technical action for the week was positive as the November contract closed above the March and April highs.

“November took out the March highs early this week, then backed off Wednesday and Thursday, then turned around and went back up again. So, it’s respecting new highs for May. That’s important. If you can stay above the April and March highs like we have and exceed it then you’re probably on to something that’s more long-term. We’ve done that in new crop,” he explains.

July or old crop soybeans filled the gap from the limit down day on March 9 when President Trump announced he was delaying the China summit due to the war in Iran, but could not close above the March high.

He says when a market fails like that it is a concern but if the market is positive enough to close above that gap it’s significant and signals a bigger rally.

So next week will be a pivotal week to see if July soybeans can close above the March high of $12.50 3/4, especially with the big news items hitting the market including the May WASDE and the China summit.

Corn Lower for the Week, Funds Still Long
On the other hand, corn posted lower weekly closes in both the July and December contacts, which is concerning to Gulke.

It may be tied to more acres of corn being planted than what USDA indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report.

Gulke says in talking to his seed dealer, he indicated he had not seen any farmers bring back corn to exchange for soybeans.

“There was a lot of talk about it, but he said nobody really did it in any significance. And so you have a lot of rumors and innuendo, but when you talk to some of the seed corn guys, it wasn’t significant if it was at all.So, apparently, they found inputs,” he states.

Gulke also talked to his fertilizer supplier, who indicated they had enough fertilizer in stock for anyone that did not pre-book.

“They’ll pay more than they would have in October or November but they can get it,” he says, “So, I’m wondering whether things are as bad as the media would have led us to believe. Just because prices got high, does not mean it wasn’t available.”

Funds Long in Corn and Soybeans
According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report the funds are long in both corn and soybeans and added to those positions in the last week.

In the soybean complex the managed money traders have been long for several weeks.

Gulke says, “It’s very impressive. I would have probably bet they stayed neutral maybe even liquidate a little but it looks like they bought into any kind of weakness.They did a huge, huge amount in new crop corn and corn and beans in general.”

Some in the trade media, according to Gulke, will come out Monday saying when traders get this long they need to get out at some time.“And when he gets out, the doors are not going to be big enough to let him out.”

Gulke disagrees.“The large spec is kind of like a hockey player that wants to shoot the puck or watch where he thinks the puck’s going to go and not where it is. And that’s what they’re looking at.They’re opportunists. They’re buying grain or buying stocks or whatever in anticipation of selling it at a higher price.”

So, the funds can keep defending their market longs longer than you think or in the case of wheat funds were short for nearly four years.

“You have the speculator who bets millions and billions on managing money. They’re still long. If you’re heavily negative agriculture, you probably look over your shoulder and say, what am I missing? We’ll find that out later but usually the large spec is smarter than I am, so I watch him pretty close,” he concludes.

For more information you can contact Jerry and info@gulkegroup.com .

Soybeans Lead Grain Recovery Friday on Talk of China Soybean Purchases

Fri, 08 May 2026 21:30:05 GMT

Grains ended higher Friday with cattle lower.

Grains Recover Friday, Follow War Headlines
Grain markets recovered on Friday with crude oil as the hopes for a cease fire and peace deal with Iran started to fade.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week.

“Headlines have been all over the place. We came into the week with crude oil sharply higher, thinking that the blockade that was on from the United States and of course also by Iran was going to be long lived. And the market was even looking and saying that that blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last to the end of summer,” he says.

Grains and a lot of commodities added war premium because of that and then reversed lower on news of a peace deal later in the week.

“When the we saw a mutual letter of understanding, a one pager by President Trump to the Iranians trying to find a way to open the Strait and maybe get to a 30-day negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That gave the market a drop, if you will. And then on Friday, as tensions started to come back up as the U.S. attacked a few tankers, the market added war premiums. So in my mind, war is still the big factor in grain trade. We’ll see how the next week plays out. But next week,

Strait Reopening is Key
The big key is getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Basse is giving that about 33% odds.

“I’ve increased it a little bit because I do believe that there’s pressure on the Iranians as they run out of storage for their crude oil production to maybe get back to the negotiating table,” he says.

He says a forced deal in which the U.S. military and Iran will go back and forth will open it up for short periods of time, otherwise the U.S. may continue the blockade.

“But as you go forward, again, we’ll see how Trump is able to negotiate. And the Iranians at this point are not anxious to get to the negotiating table, which concerns me. But we’ll see how Pakistan really nudges them forward along with the Chinese,” he says.

Corn and Wheat Rally Over?
Without a re-escalation could the corn and wheat rally be over, especially after lower weekly closes?

“Managed money or funds are along about a half million contracts of grain, corn, soybeans, and wheat, it does show the markets put a tremendous amount of war premium in the price. We’ve done some analysis at AgResource. We think it’s about 45 cents on corn, $1.40 on beans, and about 25 cents on wheat in terms of war premium. If that war were to end, that premium comes out. I also believe the markets will be more focused on new crops,” he adds.

So he thinks farmers should be rewarding the market rallies.

Soybeans End Higher on China Purchase Talk
Soybeans led the rally on Friday with the summit coming up May 14 and 15.

Basse says, “The summit is expected to produce maybe some Chinese buying. Rumors from China on Friday had them buying some 12 to 13 million metric tons from the United States. If I combine that with the 12 million tons they bought last November through of, let’s say, the end
of January, that would take us to 25 million metric tons. And remember, back in that November meet, the United States talked about China committing to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. So we’ll see how this all plays out. I do not think that buying 12 or 13 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is all that bullish.”

That’s because it will lead to lower soybean export figures but still the market saw this as demand from China and it got the market moving higher on Friday.

China Summit Deliverables?
So what is the market looking for to keep the China premium built into the soybean market intact?

Basse says, “The USTR and Ambassador Greer has been talking about a board of trade idea. And the board of trade is not in Chicago. It’s a board of trade concept in which the United States would start to sell additional ag commodities to the Chinese under some separate terms. So maybe that includes wheat or corn or beef or other products. And so whether or not Ambassador Greer can get that across the finish line next week will be important. If we broaden commodity mixtures to China, from the United States, that would be more bullish.”

He thinks it will take another summit in November to get that done.

Will China Buy Other Crops?
China has said they want to buy non-soybean row crops though, so could the soybean bulls be disappointed.

He says its entirely possible, “Listen, when we head into these kind of negotiations or summits, it’s all political. And that is something that, you know, as an analyst, we can’t look behind the curtain very far. I am troubled about several things, though. Again, I’d like China to drop its tax on soybeans. It has a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans coming in, a 15% duty on grain. So that needs to end. But on the other side of that, I would be hopeful that maybe we can start to sell some grain to China. and wheat and other meat products. That would just help the U.S. farmer broaden things out.”

He also hopes the two countries can normalize trade with a market-based system.

“Not where presidents Xi or Trump, decide what’s going to happen.”

Global Tariffs Struck Down, Leverage for China?
In additiona, the 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful on Friday. So, does that give China more leverage in these discussions next week?

Basse says, “Oh, it sure does. You know that a 10% tariff was on China. If we remember back to the last meeting that happened back in November, that tariff rate was somewhere just shy of 50%. So the Chinese like to trade. In other words, if they’re going to get a lower tariff, they’ll do something in terms on the buy side. And we saw that with the fentanyl tariffs back in November. If there’s no tariffs on China, which would be the implication of that, that 10% tariff being wiped. out, I wondered what else the United States could provide China. Maybe there’s something on Taiwan. Maybe there’s something elsewhere. But the availability to trade tariffs for China doing something is diminished with this decision that came on.”

He says it’s disappointing that this happened right before the trade summit.

Wheat Topped?
Wheat may have topped but with the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour next week could that shock the market into causing some weather premium to be added?

“I think that we’ll all look to the Kansas tour and the NASS production estimate that comes out on Tuesday as kind of giving us what the probabilities are in terms of how small is small. There’s some of us that see the hard red winter wheat crop down in the 575 to 585 million bushels. If it goes below that, then that will be somewhat bullish,” he explains.

However, he says the world wheat carryover of old and new crop wheat is a near record supply.

“So there’s no shortage of wheat in the world. We just have a shortage of hard red wheat in the Kansas or the Plains. And then the question is, what do U.S. millers do accordingly? But I worry about export demand going forward because we are hearing that Russia is selling wheat
into Mexico. We’re hearing Russia selling wheat into places like Brazil. These are traditional U.S. customers. I hate to see that business being lost to the Russians,” he adds.

He thinks USDA may lower the winter wheat crop between 200 to 225 million bushels with ending stocks dropping 100 to 125 million bushels.

May WASDE Expectations
Will USDA raise corn exports in the May WASDE and lower soybean exports?

“Yeah, I think that’s the popular tone that people want to raise exports a little bit on corn, maybe cut the ethanol estimate because of the inclusion of sorghum in the weekly grinds or monthly grinds. That’s all possible. I think USDA kind of holds pad, if you will, and we don’t see a big change on end stocks. We still stay above 2.1 billion. And then on soybeans, you know, we’re looking at around 340 to 350 million bushels, maybe down 5 to 10 million bushels there. Maybe exports need to be trimmed a little bit in soybeans, but crush numbers need to rise. Wheat won’t change much,” he adds.

For new crop corn ending stocks his estimate is above 2 billion bushels as USDA sticks with trendline yield of 183 bu. Soybeans will also see trendline yield of 53 bu.

The wheat number will change based on the NASS production report of winter wheat.

China export demand is still up in the air. “And a lot of that depends upon the summit on Thursday, Friday. So if I’m USDA, I’m not going to make a big change in Chinese soybean demand just yet.”

The biggest changes could come with USDA raising the Argentinian corn crop, six or seven million metric tons. They also could do the same to Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop could nudge up just a million or two tons, he adds.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures ended lower despite record cash trade. Is that just profit taking or is that a bigger concern?

Basse says, “I believe it’s somewhat of a concern. Seasonally speaking, as we tend to get into the early part of June, excuse me, May, and we normally make a top in the beef market. That top usually corresponds with the Mother’s Day weekend. So coming after that, I expect beef prices to start decline. We also see cash cattle numbers rising, or at least fed cattle numbers rising for the next three or four weeks. Slaughter has been relatively low relative to on-feed estimates over the last four or five weeks. I believe those cattle will now come to market maybe at some heavier weights, and that could cause some easing, if you will, of cash prices.”

But he doesn’t see any end to the longer term bull market in cattle because there is no dramatic expansion in the cattle herd.

“So tightening supplies longer term is still the theme. It’s just that the market could have a correction here,” he adds.

Brazilian Beef Imports
The talk of higher Brazilian beef imports and the DOJ investigation of meat packers may have also spooked the funds.

“Well, we did have President Lula at the White House on Thursday, and there was a discussion of better or improving beef trade into the United States. A lot of that beef will be used for the grind. In other words, hamburger in Brazil was the biggest importer customer into the United States looking backwards to 2024. So I imagine that there is that potential there, but the Brazilians are going to take a little while to have it all happen. And now we’ve got the Section 122 tariff news, there’s a little push on that. But again, I don’t think it’s enough to really collapse the market. I do believe it’s something that could give us a correction,” he states.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:04:51 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Corn, Soybeans Hold Support as Oil Recovers: Cattle Fall Despite Record Cash

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:56:17 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower on Thursday except back month hog futures.

Grains Follow Crude Oil, War Headlines
Grain markets were lower on Thursday still tied to the trend of the crude oil futures and Iran war headlines says Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing.

“You know, we had crude starting the day out significantly lower, putting those lows in fairly early in the session, and grains did very much the same thing,” he says.

He says up until this week the grain markets seemed like they were trying to divorce from the energy sector and trade their own fundamentals but that isn’t the case the last few days.

“I think today was the best example as it traded both on the lows of the day with the crude and on the highs of the day,” he explains.

Corn and Soybeans End Off Lows
So, crude oil started sharply lower Thursday with the continued news of peace talks with Iran and possibility of getting the Strait of Hormuz open, pulling down grain markets.

However, crude oil stabilized as the day progressed following Iran rejecting the terms for a long-term cease fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That reversal in the crude oil market helped to support late day buying in corn and soybeans, even bean oil.

Corn and Soybeans Hold Support
Corn and soybeans also bounced as they held key chart support and bounced off that level.

“We got underneath the moving average that we’re watching kind of mid-day like on the December corn in that $4.85 area. So we definitely had a lower low than that, but the closes kind of saved the day on the charts,” he says.

He says it was a victory for corn to close just a 1/2 cent lower versus at the low end of the trading range today.

“Something to be watching for tomorrow, though. I mean, we’ve kind of put a few days in a row now, some lower highs and some lower lows and busting through some of the moving averages and retracements. So that’ll be a big number tomorrow.”

Will Funds Defend Longs?
The funds had piled into the corn market the last week or so buying over 83,000 contract last week alone and were record long in soybean oil. So will they defend those long positions if crude oil goes down or wait to see if inflation concerns subside?

“I think they can stay in these markets for a little bit longer in the corn. But they can put a lot more contracts on the books too. From a historical standpoint it’s still early in the season for them to be completely exiting. I don’t think that needs to happen today. I think we’ve got a a month to two months left from a seasonality standpoint and then they could shed some positions,” he adds.

Plus, he thinks the inflationary concerns are far from over because it will take a while to get the Strait of Hormuz open and normalized and the managed money traders realize that.

Favorable Planting Weather
The USDA crop progress report has shown planting progress ahead of average which has also weighed on the markets.

While there have been some areas that have struggled with cold and/or wet conditions slowing planting that is starting to change.

Much of the Corn Belt is seeing some more favorable weather and the extended forecast is also conducive for planting which should result in bearish planting figures for corn and soybeans on Mondday.

“It looks to us like most everybody’s getting a window. There’s some spots out into Indiana and into Ohio that we’re a little concerned about yet, Michelle, as far as planting pace goes. But, you know, that eastern Iowa into Illinois looks like we’re going to be in pretty good shape and getting a nice window in a lot of spots.”

Weekly Exports
Weekly exports on Thursday morning were below last week for corn at 53.6 million bu. but still solid for this time of year. Plus, total exports are up 29% from a year ago.

Soybeans were only 5.2 million bu. for old crop which is a marketing low and cumulative exports are down 23% from last year which is disappointing according to Hoogendoorn.

“I think the marketplace is kind of anticipating some of that. We’re not really riding a huge wave higher as far as especially old crop soybean sales go. So I believe some of that’s priced in. We know we’re going to be lower on exports as this year kind of gets to the back half of the year, right, as far as old crop sales go. New crop is hopefully a different story. I think we’ll get a month or so down the road and we’ll start to focus on that which is why we didn’t take that news harder,” he says.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
Also holding the soybean market together is ideas that China could announce soybean purchases at the Summit next week and so it may build those premium back into heading into the meeting. Is this market building those premiums in? T

“Yes, there’s probably some optimism built in there. However, a lot of these type of meetings have been disappointing. Right. So. let’s be a little careful there if we’re truly putting some premium into the market going into into that meeting let’s approach that thing with some caution. Hopefully it’s not warranted but our history would suggest that gets a little disappointing on the actual action items,” he adds.

Wheat Story Over?
The wheat market did not recover off the lows with crude oil and was down sharply especially in hard red winter wheat contracts.

The market is continuing to remove weather premium with some rains or moisture received in dry HRW areas in Colorado and Western Kansas. Plus the frost concerns have not materialized as advertised.

So, Hoogendoorn says the wheat production concerns are starting to fade.

“Well, talk about an impressive story about buy the rumor and sell the fact, right? I mean, this crop has got a lot of issues as far as the hard red winter wheat. So it’s so impressive that we rallied before that news kind of came out, if you will, or before it was official through the USDA. Now we’re getting a lot of that information coming out on the table, but we’re taking a good 60 cents off that wheat market in the meantime. So yes, that’s very much what’s going on. That wheat story has got some age to it,” he states.

The market didn’t even react to the Oklahoma wheat tour results which pegged the crop at only 47.8 million bushels, which was well below the 106.4 million bu. figure from last year.

And while some areas missed frost there are more freezing temperatures in the forecast for this weekend, which have failed to support the market.

Cattle Lower Despite Higher Cash
Cattle futures ended off session lows but were lower on the day.

Early pressure came from lower boxed beef prices, the lower stock market and concerns that a planned meeting between President Trump and Brazil’s president may result in increased beef imports coming into the U.S. to provide some price relief to beef for consumers.

The funds sold early on the headline says Hoogendoorn.

“They wanted to take risk off on this cattle market in a big way today. We’re hearing more rumors of some discussions going on with Brazil.
We’ll see if anything comes out of that in the next 24 to 48 hours. Be watchful and mindful of that type of discussion. Not sure if that’s what spooked it or if it was something else,” he adds.

He adds the only reason cattle ended off their lows was the higher cash market. He says it started out steady but continued to build momentum.

Southern cash trade was reported at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3. Northern trade live ranged from $258 to $260 live with $402 dressed prices, up $3.

Hog Futures End Mixed
Lean hog futures ended mixed with pressure in the front end of the board on continued ample supplies and bear spreading.

He says, “The market’s been trying really hard to justify having these summer futures markets at a premium to the nearby fundamentals, right? And as time passes and we run on a pretty large lack of any good news on the fundamental standpoint, they struggle to justify that premium. That’s exactly the way the market was trading today. That’s the way it’s been trading. Today they did it in the spread market, which, you know, as producers, we have to be pretty thankful for, right? Like we’re able to sell the front end and at least we’re buying the back end was actually able to post some closes that look pretty attractive there, you know, August on back type of a thing.”

But he thinks the market is on the edge of improving with few numbers in the pipeline.

Export Restrictions Due to Pseudorabies
The other good news is so far the only export restrictions tied to pseudorabies remerging after 20 years is Mexico, but that is limited.

“We’ve got the Mexico saying that they’re not interested in our varieties meats anymore. I think that’s a real thing and gonna be in place for a for a while. I don’t know if that’s something that will drag on all summer and into the fall or not mostly a reduction in revenue for the packers. I don’t think it’s going to have a huge impact,” he says.

Still the market has been on edge awaiting those type of announcements and if there are more he thinks they will be traded negatively.

“So the two things to watch, are there more positive cases and if any more news as far as countries restricting exports for sure,” he adds.

Grains Slide Further With Oil as Funds Sell: Where Do the Markets Find Support?

Thu, 07 May 2026 16:23:56 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were all lower to start Thursday.

Grains Continue to Slide with Crude Oil
Grain markets are continuing to slide lower with the falling crude oil market and the idea the Iran war may be ending soon.

However, Darin Newsom, senior market analyst for Barchart, says he thinks the odds of a peace accord with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are between slim and none.

So while the funds are liquidating positions in the grains to shed some risk, it may not last.

“It makes for nice headlines and as we’ve talked about before these markets are all driven by headlines. The reality is the war isn’t somehow mysteriously all over or miraculously completely over. I’m sure there’s still missiles firing. I’m sure there’s still bombs going off. And so what we’ll find out most likely over the weekend, because that’s when these things tend to happen, is that there is no peace, that there is no ceasefire,” he explains.

So he says the markets will need to adjust again coming out of this weekend.

How Far Could Crude Oil and Grains Fall?
Currently the crude oil market is buying into the peace talks and grains futures are falling as a result, especially corn and bean oil which are biofuels derivatives.

So how much lower will prices fall before finding chart support especially as many contracts are nearing some key technical levels?

Newsom says, “We’ve seen so much buying coming into the commodity sector we’ve had these predictive market sites promoting the fact that they’re better gamblers quote unquote investors, can trade commodities basically without regulation by CFTC. And so they’ve been hustling. They’ve been baiting folks and getting people into the markets.”

However, now these speculative traders are getting out.

“So, there’s no real magic level that these markets come down to. What they’re going to have to do is come back to where there is some intrinsic value support, some fundamental support. And as we see, basically across the board in the grain sector is that basis is weak. So the
intrinsic value is weak in relation to where these futures markets have gone. That leaves a lot of room for liquidation. It leaves a lot of room for these markets to come down,” he adds.

He thinks there will be some buying coming out of the weekend in the energy sector which will support soybean oil and soybeans, maybe even corn.

Buying Resume Ahead of China Summit?
Still, once the dust settles the focus will turn towards next week’s meeting with China and the possibility of soybean and other ag purchases.

President Trump’s social media posts have been optimistic regarding the meeting and Newsom says painting a picture about the strong relationship between the two countries and how it will lead to increased China demand for agriculture goods, which has driven some buying in the grains and especially soybeans.

Newsom is skeptical about a meaningful and transparent deal or one that focuses on agriculture. However, he thinks the market will buy into the meeting on those hopes.

“Yes, I would expect the grains sector, for those two reasons, to rally next week. Is there going to be anything really come out of this? No. There’s going to be talk of computer chips, and there’s going to be this and that. But as far as U.S. ag is concerned, nothing’s going to change,” he adds.

China News Priced Into Soybeans?
The other concern is that soybeans have already had a rally on hopes for that additional demand as they are nearly $2 higher than a year ago. That means the market could fade any deal with China.

However, Newsom says some of that premium has come from the soybean oil market and biofuels demand which isn’t going away.

“A lot of what’s happened in the soybean market has to do with soybean oil. Again, if we look at bean oil, we know that the funds have gone to a record large long and record large net long futures position here of late. So that’s really been what’s been pulling soybeans higher,” he says.

Soybean Oil Priced in Processing Demand?
Soybean processing demand has been stout due to record crush margins tied to the new RVO blending levels into biofuels and that has helped drive the soybean oil market into new highs.

“That isn’t necessarily going away,” he points out.

However, crude oil and heating oil or diesel fuel prices have also driven the rally and if they cool will it also mean a top is in the bean oil market?

“To me, we’ve most likely built in the bulk of this explosion in demand. And we can attach a bit of an asterisk from the biofuels standpoint,” he adds.

Additionally, diesel fuel prices are likely to stay elevated even if crude oil prices fall due to record tight inventory. So if diesel prices stay high, that should support bean oil prices.

“We just ran a study showing just the one-month correlation is up near 100%. And I know correlation does not prove causation but anytime you get 94%, 95%, it raises an eyebrow, and there’s been a tight correlation between the two markets. That has brought funds into the market,” he says.

Export Demand
Biofuels and record soybean crush are making up for some of the lost exports this year to China. While it is normal seasonally for soybean exports to cool, weekly exports were a marketing year low of 5.2 million bu. and to date soybean sales are down 23% from last year.

Corn exports were at 53.6 million bu. which were strong while wheat exports at 2.9 million bu. were also week.

Corn exports to date were up 29% from a year ago.

“But what we’re seeing is if we take those total shipments and we project them out based on the average of what we normally have shipped this point of year, that pace projection for corn continues to come down. The trend since basically last fall has been for that pace projection to come down. You know, yes, we still have solid demand. Yes. You know, it’s still going to come in above last year’s reported shipments by the time we get to the end of the marketing year.”

So the market has already built in the most bullish scenario for U.S. corn export demand.

“And at this point, you know. the future spreads and basis are still weak. You know, so if we look at national average basis, it’s still running at or below the previous 10-year low weekly closes. So, I mean, so it just tells us that supplies are still adequate. Available supplies are still adequate to meet demand,” he adds.

Wheat Rally Over?
The wheat market was the first to climb to two-year highs in the winter wheat contracts, but has had a big correction removing war and weather premium.

So is the lower production of HRW wheat factored in already? Newsom thinks so.

“The reality is that the hard red winter crop has been hurt. We know that. I’ve talked to folks from the Southern Plains. The 2026 crop has been hurt. Again, if we look at new crop future spreads, they’re still covering a neutral, at best, level of calculated full commercial carry. So the commercial side of the market was saying, look. We may have smaller production this year, but it’s not going, at least right now, it’s not that dramatic. It’s not going to change the supply and demand situation all that much. Plus, you know, basis versus the July and September futures contracts is incredibly weak at this point, heading into harvest, you know, across the far Southern plains.”

A few weeks ago the speculators were also buying wheat on headlines, so there was money flowing into the complex, even SRW wheat.

“So this money flow, particularly in the Chicago market, that’s the more heavily traded futures market, was coming into wheat for no reason whatsoever. I mean, we’ve got Chicago, we’ve got soft red winter spreads covering 90% plus calculated full commercial carry. That’s not bullish. That’s not fundamentally bullish. Yet the money was pouring in. And so that money’s probably starting to come back out. And so regardless of how much damage has been done to the hard red winter crop, if we continue to see selling coming into the soft red winter crop, it’s going to spill over into hard red winter, particularly as harvest starts rolling along,” he explains.

Oklahoma Wheat Crop Cut
That may be why the market did not react to the results of the Oklahoma crop tour. The crop was only 47.8 million bushels versus 106.4 last
year.

He says, “The market didn’t care about it.”

Cattle Fall, But Beef Demand Is Not
Cattle futures were lower on Thursday with the rest of the complex despite some light cash trade so far this week at higher money.

The market is seeing some profit taking but there is no evidence of consumer demand rationing yet on beef according to Newsom, even with higher gas prices. At least not yet.

“You know, the choice has to be made between fuel or high priced beef. And so, you know, yes, we’ve seen gasoline crumble this week. But again, I don’t think it’s permanent. So I think there is some concern. There’s still some concern in the cattle industry and the beef, that these prices just simply aren’t sustainable, that at some point U.S. consumers are going to have to make that choice. They’re going to have to
make the choice to pay more for gasoline and less for beef. And we haven’t really seen it yet. I’ve been anticipating, I’ve been looking for it, for this change to less expensive proteins, but we just aren’t seeing those signs yet. So it’s been resilient, but I still think it’s coming,” he says.

Grains Plunge With Oil, Peace Talks: Is the Rally Over?

Wed, 06 May 2026 21:55:54 GMT

Grain and hog markets were lower on Wednesday with cattle higher.

Grains Tank With Crude Oil
Grains markets were lower in tandem with the plunge in crude oil on headlines of peace talks and a possible end to the Iran war. If the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened how much lower could grain futures fall with energy markets?

Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.

“If oil continues to slide sharply lower, you know, that’s obviously going to be a big headwind for the grain markets. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe chew through this headline quicker than we saw earlier in the year and maybe get the grain markets to trading back to their fundamental backdrop and the uncertainties that lie there,” he says.

Market Hit Technical Resistance
Corn also saw technical headwinds come into play according to Sloup as July corn made a double top.

“We saw July corn futures bump up against those March highs, $4.84, $4.87 1/2, tag that top to a tee and then set back. And if you look back all the way to last spring, that was also kind of a key inflection point for the market as well. You had the RSI or the relative strength index getting into overbought territory, which has really only happened about four or five times over the last year and a half. And each of those times, you know, we did see a correction of about 10 to about 30 cents. So somewhere in that ballpark, which is what we got today. So maybe a little bit more weakness here in the near term,” he explains.

New crop December corn though he thinks can trade on its own merit once the market stabilizes.

Is the Grain Rally Over?
Sloup is not sure the grain market rally is over due to the uncertainties surrounding acreage, yield and fertilizer. That will continue to keep fund or managed money traders interested in buying commodities.

“You’ve got fertilizer concerns and you talk about the energy markets as well. I don’t think that the energy markets or crude oil specifically is going to drop straight back down to where we’re trading 50 or 60 bucks. I think those prices probably stay somewhat elevated. And the concern there was get longer, higher for longer energy prices, and that feeds into the inflation narrative. And that props up commodities as a whole and continues to draw in some managed money participation, which we’ve seen in these grain markets for the better part of really the year,” he says.

So, he thinks the pullbacks are still buying opportunities. “Maybe more so in those new crop contracts.”

Soybeans Also See Technical Resistance
Soybeans had also hit technical resistance and drug down by crude oil the market went down and closed below the breakout points on the charts.

“So, we’re kind of right back down there to that breakout point that we saw about a week and a half ago. I think it was April 29th that we broke out above that range. And now we’re just retesting it and hopefully being able to defend that. That’s going to be a key area to keep the market in check. If we break and close back below there, potentially we see another 20 to 30 cents of downside here in the near term. But again, I think we potentially settle back into that choppy sideways range,” he explains.

However, new crop soybeans have had a more bullish chart pattern than old crop.

Soybean oil also hit new contract highs before reversing lower with crude oil but Sloup doesn’t think the market did technical damage.

“It was a big pullback in the bean oil market but with what we saw in the oil complex, I don’t think it was all surprising. Really not a whole lot of damage on the chart but a bit of a caution flag here in the next week’s trade,” he adds.

Awaiting China Meeting
The soybean market should be supported with the China summit next week May 14 and 15 and there could even be some buying ramping up into the meeting on optimism about the 25 MMT new crop soybean business being confirmed.

Sloup says, “I think that certainly kind of keeps funds interested and playing, so to speak. Funds have shown an appetite in the soybean complex really all year, as well as the corn market. So I wouldn’t be surprised the optimism build going into that.”

Broader Fund Buying in Grains
Sloup says there is also optimism growing about future expectations in other market.

“You don’t have to look too far to see what’s going on in the equity complex, whether it could be the S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow, etc. Just massive participation from money managers and potential. They start to look at commodities in a similar fashion here this year. Commodities have been pretty quiet over the last couple of years. But when you zoom out and look at the historical commodity super cycles, as we like to refer to them as, they really start with the base metals, precious metals, and then flow into energy. The next year to drop would be the agricultural complex.”

Last year money managers were moving into metals, this year energy and next is the grain markets.

Has Wheat Topped?
Wheat markets were lower removing war premium but have also been removing weather premium according to Sloup.

“A lot of uphill sledding for the wheat market and it is the wheat market so it can be a little bit more irrational for lack of better terms. We had the big move higher but I think you know looking back about a week and a half ago, we had that big blow off top, new highs for the move, and then a sharp reversal. And you just saw that snowball on itself. So, $6.60 is going to be the big level to hold for that Kansas City contract. That was the breakout point and kind of the old resistance area. If we can continue to defend that, I think that the Kansas City contract. Probably holds firm and continues to mark higher highs and higher lows. Breaking close below that would make me a little bit more nervous,” he says.

The Chicago contract has done more technical damage. He says, "$6.10 to $6.16, that’s a 20 and 50 day moving average. That’s the line in the sand that we want to see hold below that. You know, there’s potentially another 30 cents a downside,” he adds.

Wheat Production Cuts In WASDE?
Will USDA made any meaningful cuts to wheat production in the May 12 WASDE?

Sloup says, “I don’t know that they’re going to make any significant adjustments. I’m not really expecting them to. I would say that the market will trade this USDA report rather quickly. And then it’s probably going to be back to headlines and what’s going on in the corn and soybean market and potentially those markets feed on each other as far as the money flow goes.”

Cattle Continue Recovery
Cattle futures were up for a second day and continue to try to recover from last Friday’s key reversals with help from higher early cash.

“Cash continues to be the leader in that market and really hold a good foundation underneath things as well as just the technical landscape of things. We tested the 20 -day moving average earlier in the week. That will be probably a key inflection point, $249.25 to $250. Break and close below there, potentially you get some long liquidation. But again, the fundamental backdrop, the herd size, the cash trade continues to be just a solid foundation for this market,” he says.

But still he says cattle are resilient. “And whenever we see the turbulence, like we saw earlier in the week, it’s almost like holding a beach ball down underwater or trying to press one down underwater where you can only push it so far down and then it pops back twice as high as you pushed it down. So that continues to be the theme for the cattle market. It seems that dips are buying opportunities.”

Plus, funds are defending their longs according to Sloup.

“They have a net long position of currently about 131,000 contracts, which is historically large, but off of the recent highs that we’ve seen,” he adds.

The one concern he has is a black swan event. “I guess the thing that would make me potentially nervous would be outside market headlines or a potential border reopening, but trying to time those is nearly impossible. So for now, dips are potentially buying opportunities. Yeah, I’m sure lower corn futures, lower gas prices Probably helped out the cattle market and some total here today as well.”

Cattle, Restest the Highs?
He thinks the cattle market can retest the record highs and negate last Friday’s reversal.

“It’s really not all that far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to grind and push to the upside. With regards to the oil market, I think it’s interesting. I would almost look at a retracement in oil futures as a potential bearish catalyst. If you look at the correlation
between those, they’ve been trading almost in tandem, obviously not today. But I think that you probably look at that more as an inflation hedge rather than just risk on, risk off,” he states.

Hogs Lower....Again
Hog futures were back lower on Wednesday unable to extend Tuesday’s gains. So what is the problem with the hog market?

Sloup says, “I wish I had a good answer for you. We’ve been trying to be optimistic here on hogs as of late, but it just continues to mark lower highs and lower lows for that June contract, the 100 level. obviously has a little bit of psychological significance behind it and seems to have a gravitational pull to it as well this week. I think if we can defend that, you know, potentially we can carve out a low here, but not only do the bulls need to defend that, but we need to see consecutive closes out above $102, $102.50. That’s the 20 and 200 day moving averages. Consecutive closes out above there, maybe neutralizes some of the technical damage that we’ve seen over the last two months.”

Funds are only long about 46,000 futures. So no huge conviction to the downside or to the upside. It seems like they might be in a wait and see mode from these levels he adds.

Grains See Profit Taking, Hedge Pressure Off Highs: Cattle Stage Recovery

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:20:50 GMT

Grains ended lower on Tuesday with livestock higher.

Corn and Soybeans Ease on Profit Taking
Grains were lower on Tuesday seeing some profit taking after corn and soybeans made some new highs for the move on Monday.

Greg McBride of Allendale, says the market also saw some farmer selling and hedge pressure.

“Especially with the July contract going up and meeting that same high that it made back in March. It looks like an opportunity for these producers to get some of the last gas sales on old crop. You saw most of the negativity was up front, those May and July contracts.

December corn and soybeans also retested recent highs before hitting chart resistance.

He says, “The beans were up at just about their highs. The old crop beans, their old highs, are within 15 to 25 cents of it. So there’s some concerns about maybe getting up to the nosebleed section, especially at this time of the year when the markets do tend to put tops in. Anywhere from May to early June.”

Crude Oil Anchors Losses
The lower crude oil market also weighed on corn and soybeans and even wheat according to McBride.

“We see the market step back on Tuesday with the crude but we’re playing this back and forth game. So I think you’ve got to be careful about where some of the strength or weakness is coming from,” he points out.

He says money has been flowing into the grains due to the energy component but without a fundamental push it can easily reverse.

Fast Planting Pace
Another factor weighing on corn and soybeans was the fast planting pace at 38% nationally on corn, 4% ahead of average. Soybean planting was also at 33%, which is 10% ahead of the five year average.

Although the trend has been growing the last few years plant soybeans early this pace does support production. “Usually being ahead of pace does mean that we’re going to see a trend or above on on yields barring any major weather issues,” he says.

Plus, he says in areas that were struggling just a few days of favorable weather can result in some major progress.

“I think the guys in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, where they’re a little bit slower, we’ll see that pick up here over the next couple of weeks too,” he adds.

Soybeans Well Supported Ahead of China Meeting
McBride thinks that especially soybeans will be supported on any breaks heading into next week’s trade summit in China.

“I think that’s part of the reason that we’ve seen the bounce recently. You go back to October when we saw this similar lead up to the meeting between Trump and Xi. I don’t know that we get anything out of this for soybeans. It’ll probably turn into something more for agricultural in general purchases, but it’s definitely something the market’s going to be watching for,” he says.

He’s in the camp that the extra 8 MMT of old crop soybeans mentioned by President Trump is unlikely but if it is that would shock the market.

“We haven’t heard anything about that since early February. So if that comes out, that will be a market mover, especially for those soybeans,” he says.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact
Even if the China buys the 25 MMT of new crop soybeans the market may sell off anyway according to McBride.

“The 25 million metric tons for this year, for 27 and 28, I think you’ve got to have that priced in already,” he explains.

Now it’s one of those things where we are status quo. You’ve got to see some sort of a weather issue or you’ve got to see. I know everybody wants to

Wheat Consolidation Continues
Wheat futures continued to consolidate off the recent two year highs taking out risk premium, including weather premium with rain in the forecast for drought areas says McBride.

“Well, the wheat’s an interesting one because it’s so friendly depending on where you’re at. The Southwestern belt is dry. There’s a lot of acres that are going to be up for abandonment. There’s a lot of areas now, right, as we talk, that this week, this tonight, or on Tuesday night into Wednesday, you may be seeing some frost, some freezes, even some snow in some of those areas. So there’s some concerns about this crop out there,” he says.

However, the market is also driven by the crude oil market. “So you see the weakness in the crude on Tuesday and the wheat followed it. What happens if we go up another $4 or $5 in crude Wednesday or Thursday does the wheat take off to the high side again?”

Wheat Holds Support
Wheat futures did hold support on the charts to keep the uptrend intact and the funds defending their long position.

He says, “For right now, and you’ve seen the Minneapolis position for the funds has gone to a record long. KC is long. Chicago is just slightly long at this point when it comes to the managed money positions. That’s not a situation that you take lightly. They don’t tend to stick into those
long positions for wheat. But when they start to build and they build like they have, especially in the KC in the Minneapolis on either drought or smaller crop because of less acres, that could be a situation that maybe sticks around for a little bit. And maybe what we’re doing really is resetting the overall dominant range to a little bit higher in that wheat market.”

Funds have not been this long in wheat since June of 2022.

May WASDE Confirm Smaller Crop?
Will the May WASDE confirm the smaller winter wheat crop or will the market get that news from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour next week?

McBride says, “Yeah, I think it’s the wheat tour will probably have a better look at it. You’ve still got some areas that are coming out of dormancy. I don’t know how much the USDA is going to want to step out on their WASDE report, but I think that the wheat tour is going to tell us a lot as we go through it.”

The rate of abandonment may be the key which can be a wild card. “I hear a lot of producers talking about abandonment in January, February, but then it comes out that they end up with a crop that’s 30 to 50 bushels. I do think just based off of some of the customers that I’ve talked to, there is going to be more abandonment than other years. It’s hard to gauge at this point right now. I know there’s a lot of insurance guys out there checking fields to see what’s available to them.”

Cattle Market Recovers Tuesday
Live and feeder cattle futures staged a recovery on Tuesday after holding key support areas on Monday’s set back and with lower corn prices.

However, McBride says there was also some early cash trade at higher money of $255 to $257, which is unusual this early in the week.

“So you had a strong cash trade last week. We were up $8 or $9 from the previous week. You started getting this early week cash trade on Monday and then some on Tuesday is an interesting look because we don’t see that very often. So to have steady to even up to two dollars higher does push this market a little bit,” he explains.

Plus, boxed beef was higher on Tuesday. So, he thinks Monday’s action was tied to news of the DOJ probe of meat packers.

“This is a market that’s in an uptrend and has been in a long-term uptrend. So lately, these sell-offs, especially when it’s $5, $6, $7 in the feeders, has been a buying opportunity for speculators especially,” he adds.

So higher cash could negate Friday’s key reversal.

DOJ Probe
With an announcement expected Friday on more action against the meat packing industry to get beef prices down that could spook the market again.

However McBride says this is not the first investigation and no changes have ever resulted from it.

“It’s one of those things, it needs to go further. They need to find something or they need to do something about it. But just having a probe, I don’t think that does anything for us substantially,” he adds.

Hog Market Bounces
The hog market finally bounced off of four month lows with the help of the rally in cattle and as futures held support.

McBride says, “We took out support from like a week ago, two weeks ago on Monday. We took that low out on Tuesday. The reversal here looks good. I’m hoping what we’ve seen is we’ve finally seen a little bit of a fight for for seasonals in that market. You know, we talk about seasonals and all these other markets, but as you go into spring, you start to see the procurement for for summer grilling season. That’ll be the one to really watch when it comes to the to the pork side of things. Can we get some sort of a retest of, you know. just getting back up to kind of 50% retracement. That puts you around like $106, $105, something like that in those June, July, August contracts.”

Grains See Profit Taking with Lower Energy, Crop Progress: Cattle Recover

Tue, 05 May 2026 16:06:31 GMT

Grains were lower early Tuesday, with livestock higher.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets were all lower to start Tuesday seeing some routine profit taking after hitting new highs for the move and even some new contract highs in parts of the corn and soybean complex, according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading.

He says the markets were also watching the energy sector which was seeing some lower prices.

“I think every day when you wake up, you got to ask yourself, where’s crude at? Where’s energy markets? And that’s the first place to go to look to maybe set the tone for where these markets are going to be at across your grain. So, yeah, that’s the first place to look. Dec new crop corn made a new high overnight. But yeah, pulling off and testing that $5 level on new crop corn are attractive levels for producers,” he says.

So, there may also be some farmer selling. “Yeah those round numbers stick in producers mind for sales targets,” he says.

Dec $5 Corn, Now Where?
He says now that Dec corn has closed above $5 there may be more upside to the market, especially as funds continue to buy.

“I look at managed money positions quite often and funds have been on the right side of the grain market since the first of March. You know, the end of February when those March options came off the books, funds were net short 13,000 corn contracts. And now as of last Tuesday,
264,000 long. And there’s estimates that they’re closer to 300,000 net long currently. So you’ve got to respect that number. That’s well off the record high for their net long position in corn. So there’s room for them to add to that length,” he adds.

Still he says to respect where the funds are at and prepare for a pull back on long liquidation.

Money Flow, Crude Oil Supports Grains
Still, he says the money flow has been favoring grains and the market should be supported on inflationary concerns as long as crude oil prices stay elevated.

“Yeah, it goes back to where are the energy markets? What are they doing? You got crude above $100 in this area. That’s going to support the market. Rising prices at the pump, they make ethanol more competitive compared to gasoline. But on the flip side, Michelle, too, we got to think about gasoline. That’s the main delivery mechanism for getting ethanol and driving ethanol consumption. So if you have higher prices at the pump, is that going to curb usage? And then that kind of goes back to inflation too. Is that going to squeeze consumers’ pocketbooks and actually cause less ethanol usage?

He says many people are looking for a reduction in ethanol usage in the May WASDE and the next few reports.

Fast Planting Pace
The fast planting pace is also weighing on corn and soybeans as U.S. corn seeding pace was at 38% Monday with the five year average at 34%. Soybean planting at 33% was 10% ahead of average.

He says, “No significant problems getting the crop in you look at corn planting pace above the five -year average pace is you know just screaming we’re getting beans in the ground and they’re ahead of normal. That’s good until the rains I guess don’t come but that doesn’t look to be a problem right now.”

That early planting is also taking production risk out of the market he adds.

“So, each day we plug along in this production cycle you know we’re getting the crop in the ground then it’s early vegetative growth and then as we enter reproductive growth putting seeds on the plants and and production the more we know about a market the more certainty we get on the supply side the less risk there out is out there and the market becomes less concerned about a production problem,” he adds.

The market is also watching the dry conditions in the Brazil and if that will trim production on the second crop corn.

Soybean Market Also Makes New Highs
Soybeans made new highs for the move on Monday so the market is seeing profit taking and some farmer selling pressure especially with fast planting.

However, Huck says the market will be well supported going into the China meeting next week and with the May WASDE on Tuesday.

“So next week could be a really dynamic week and who knows what to expect out of that. So we will get the WASDE, we will get the first look at the new crop balance sheets for both corn, beans, and wheat,” he says.

China Meeting in Focus
Plus, the volatility of the China Summit with President Trump and President Xi meeting on May 14 and 15 will be in focus.

“We’ll see what comes out of there. My biggest concern about that meeting and what’s changed over the last month is that Iran and the conflict there will take more precedence over a bigger, larger ag trade deal. It may take the air out of the room a little bit as they focus on other things,” he says.

The concern could also be if the soybean market has already price it in then there may be a “buy the rumor sell the fact reaction” which could produce a selloff.

“You have these headlines the anticipation of an event and like you said there you can buy the rumor and sell the fact and where will this market go so a lot of a lot of pieces of the puzzle ahead,” he says.

Marketing Strategy?
Huck says seasonals are in the farmers favor right now and so they need to watch the market to take advantage of opportunities to price.

“Producers should keep an eye on these grain prices and where they’re at and be opportunistic don’t rule out where things can go but uh respect where they’re at today and where we’ve come from,” he adds.

Wheat Market Falls on Conditions, Rains
Wheat futures are trading nearly 35 cents off of the 2-year highs scored in soft red and hard red winter wheat contracts just a week and a half ago.

The crop condition rating on Monday was up 1% to 31% good to excellent and there are forecasts for rain in the next few days. In fact there was already some rain falling on Tuesday morning in some areas of Colorado and Nebraska.

“Wheat’s been on a tear this year. You know, one of the best performing commodities. I think July KC wheat is, you know, traded almost a $2 trading range since the first of the year. It rallied from $5.35 up to $7.18. We’ve pulled back off of that. We’re about 35 cents off the highs on the July KC wheat contract,” he says.

Crop conditions are bleak the further west you travel into Eastern Colorado and the extreme Western Kansas the panhandle.

However, says, “The wheat crop looks tough but in my travels here I’ve seen you know seen some ground over the last couple weeks traveling around. I’ve actually kind of been impressed with pleasantly surprised with some of what the wheat looks like. So wheat’s a very resilient crop. We often joke that it, you know, needs nine lives to kill it. And I don’t know what life we’re on. Some of it has spent all of them, but I wouldn’t underestimate. I think there’s more potential out there than than maybe what we thought a couple of weeks ago. And yeah, we’ll see. A rain, I think. still help some things.”

He was surprised though with the slight improvement in crop conditions on Monday.

“We really saw kind of a separation where some of that, the fair either went up into good and excellent, or it drifted back into the poor, very poor. So there’s definitely have and have-nots out there in wheat country, and it’s a resilient crop. It’s used up a lot of its lives. Don’t count it out,” he adds.

Wheat Marketing Opportunity
Huck says there are some opportunities to market wheat right now.

“It’s a really difficult crop to market to, Michelle. Are we going to raise 60 bushel wheat or are we going to raise 10 bushel wheat? So options make a good tool to be using there to protect these prices. And if you’re not doing something on 26 or you feel like you can’t, maybe look out there at 27 and see what you can do out there on 27 crop,” he explains.

Kansas Wheat Tour
The Wheat Quality Council tour is headed for Kansas May 11-14 and Huck expects a mixed bag regarding what they find in the field.

“I think you’re going to see some extreme photos of browned out wheat with no heads and just big bare spots. I think you’re going to see some thin wheat. I think you’re going to see some frost freeze damage wheat. You’re going to get a basket of a little bit of everything. But I think there’s going to be some pockets out there where the wheat looks better than expected. And maybe an average, below average type of crop would be my anticipation. It’ll be interesting to see when we get the boots on the ground. And some of that freeze damage is out there, too, because that’s one of the most difficult things to look at, especially from the 70-mile-an-hour drive-by look that I often get at wheat,” he states.

The key to production may be the abandonment of acres and he says that may not show up yet in the May WASDE.

“Typically the USDA takes a scaled approach to making those adjustments, but you never know what to expect when it comes to printing a number on paper,” he says.

Cattle Market Trying to Recover
The cattle market was higher early on Tuesday trying to recover from the key reversals scored on Friday.

The market made record highs that day in both live and feeder cattle futures and then ended lower and continued to sell off Monday.

So can the market make a full recovery?

Huck says, “The cattle market’s strong and we’re up here, you know, very near record levels, just off those record levels, looking at feeders, looking at fats, you know, May feeders posted contract highs Friday, $378.27, closed yesterday, $366.60. You know, we have a $12 off the high just yesterday,”

However, he points out May’s beef month and grilling season is just ahead.

“There’s a lot of fundamental supportive factors for the beef market going forward. But one of the biggest questions in my mind is the health of the consumer. That’s to me is what’s going to drive demand and drive this market going forward. If they show resiliency to continue buying beef because they like the way it tastes, they like the health consciousness of it. It’s a nutrient dense protein that brings lots of stuff, lots of good stuff to consumers. If they’ve got an appetite for beef, I would not guess how long this good market can last,” he adds.

Cattle Market Resilient
The cattle market has also been resilient in the face of bearish headlines. While it did trade bearish in reaction to the announced DOJ probe of meat packers it doesn’t take long for the fundamentals to came back into focus.

“There’s a lot of headlines out there that get slung around and you never know when the trade’s going to trade them and when they’re going to completely ignore them,” he says.

Cash is King
Still with record cash last week that will support the market and the strong cash trade moving foward.

This week the cash market may be more quiet after a week of big gains and last week’s early trade.

“Wholesale beef prices there’s just some natural ebb and flow as to what the packer needs to do to manage the inventory manage their margin and then you’ll manage the supply on the feed yard side so lots of ebb and flow in this market the fundamentals haven’t really changed but
you never know when they’re gonna they are going to change,” he says.

Cash Feeders Strong
The cash feeder market has not cooled off which should also support the feeder cattle futures.

“Right. Yeah, we’re the index is moving around quite a bit. A couple of weeks ago, we saw a pullback on it with some headlines. You kind of got to watch energy markets in the macro markets as well whenever you’re looking at cattle. And we see some pullbacks, some sell offs, ten dollar sell offs. But cash data last week was pretty strong and bouncing back. Watch that cash, not just the the index average change each day, but the daily data that goes into the feeder cattle index each. each day that also provides some clues as to where things are going,” he adds.

Cattle Fall After Reversal, Is the Top In? Corn Above $5, Beans to New Highs

Mon, 04 May 2026 22:24:03 GMT

Grains end mostly higher Monday, with cattle and hogs lower.

Have Cattle Topped?
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day on follow through selling. Both made record highs on Friday and then closed lower on big volume scoring key reversals.

So is the top in the cattle market?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this market but it fits the profile of a technical top.

“Some 45 years ago I learned a reversal has to be from a terminal area, which is just a fancy way of saying an important area. And I don’t know what’s more important than the all time high. So, we did that on Friday. It has to be done on big volume. It was 86,000. It should be accompanied by an increase in open interest, and it was. And then the third thing is that it should have followed through the following day,” he explains.

However, he says the market ended well off the lows because at one time feeder cattle were over $7 lower and the June live cattle closed almost $3.50 off its lows.

“While it was still lower, it was a long ways from where it was,” he says.

Cattle Hold Critical Support
So the market held the support it needed to on the charts because according to Kooima June live cattle stayed above the 50-day and the
20-day moving averages, which has been kind of significant to keep an eye on.

“August feeders got a little whippy. We got all the way down to 62% retracement, then held that. So I’d say we did good enough holding what I think was technically important,” he adds.

Cash Trade Topped?
Several fundamental factors may have also caused the sell off including this week’s cash expectations.

Last week the cash market hit record high levels with Southern deals mostly $244 to $256, up $9 to $10. The North was $255 to $258 live and mostly $400 dressed, up $14.

The average steer price was reported by USDA at a new record high of $255.02, up $8.84. So it will be hard to see an encore.

“I mean, the market was basically $246 last week, Wednesday, I think. I know I passed $248 on Friday then, but if you compare like $246 and then getting cattle as high as $258 last week. You find me a week where that happened before. There was a couple of weeks in 2014 that were like that, but maybe not quite that much,” he says.

Kooima adds that it is interesting the packers came out already so aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday, to try to buy cattle.

“And dovetail that with the fact that a month ago or so, there was plenty of these basis deals made by some of the major packers where they were willing to pay five or six over where the Junes were for the first two weeks of May. At that time, that was the equivalent of like $252 on cash cattle. At the same time, the cash market was probably $5 to $7 less than that. Well, a lot of guys did that because that looked pretty attractive, right? Turns out it’s cheap now compared to what the packer paid last week,” he explains.

So the packer was trying to get enough inventory so they didn’t have to work so hard to secure as many numbers this week theorizes Kooima.

“So you’re going to have a standoffish week on cash, maybe. Let’s call it steady due to lack of trade, perhaps, just because I don’t think we’ve
got very small show lists up here in the North, very small. So we don’t have much for sale, but you might have a packer that might not need to buy much,” he says.

Kill Cuts
That because the packers are trying to cut kills this week to prop up their margins.

“I’m not going to say names, but there’s plenty of them that are going four days this week. And one’s down today. A couple of them are down Friday. So the packer is trying to do whatever is necessary to not have to chase the market anymore,” he adds.

That was already a pressuring feature for the market on Friday.

High Gas, Stock Market Sell Off
Also working against the cattle market was the surging gas prices and the sharply lower stock market.

At some point that becomes negative for consumer demand. “One has the worry that, you know, and the inflation or the stress on the budget that’s created by that. And let’s be honest. I mean, boxed beef is no runaway with this tight kill. And it is less than a week now till Mother’s Day. We’re already past that. Usually two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day. That’s kind of your signal for let’s begin the middle meat rally. So hopefully it
still develops. But I think. There was some of that going on today,” he says.

So that created some technical selling especially with the funds nearly record long.

DOJ Probe
Adding to the bearish attitude was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterating the goal of the Trump administration to get beef prices down.

Part of that strategy includes a Department of Justice investigation of the beef packing industry.

He says, “I’m not sure that Secretary Rollins commentary this morning was helpful to the market either, bringing up the concept of investigating the big four. You know, probably if you’re an algorithm trader and you’re trading, you might think, you know what, I don’t think I want to be participating in this kind of uncertainty.”

DOJ has probed the packing industry in the past only to walk away empty handed but it spooked the funds.

“There’s things that have happened historically that deserve some looking into including the Holcomb fire. I was very vocal through that period about how we killed more cattle after the fire than before it but they couldn’t see anything wrong then. You know, I mean, we had 85 cent cattle and $450 boxes. So, you know, so what are they going to find now?”

Hogs Down Again
Lean hog futures were down again on Monday with continued fund liquidation and technical selling.

Kooima says the market got spooked about the pseudorabies case in Iowa on Thursday and Friday.

He was hopeful with the positive comments Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig made about the problem being contained that the market would stablize.

“He outlined how everything got tested. These were five boars from Texas and an isolated incident. We’ve got protocol in place and we haven’t had a case since 2004. I was hoping that maybe cooler heads would prevail,” he adds.

Kooima says the cash news is pretty friendly but the market can’t find support and the charts look terrible.

“The inability to source pigs because of the disease problems is real. What these pigs cost, close to $100 on an isowean, $150 on a 40-pounder, would tell you just how tight the supply is. So, you know, I have a tendency to be a little bit of a supply-side bull here with nothing to show for it.”

Soybeans Break to Fresh Highs
Soybeans ended 16 to 21 cents higher on Monday and made new highs for the move in both old and new crop contracts.

The market was following bean oil which made more new contract and multi-year highs once again chasing higher crude oil.

The market was also building in optimism ramping up into the trade summit next week in China.

“The hope that we get something tangible with this China visit. I would caution everybody be a little careful as this is China. They’re a bit disingenuous and not the most reliable trade partner but that is out there,” he states.

The crude oil/bean oil story is also a drive as he says with higher energy prices there is the fear of inflation.

“I think is reflecting in some of our commodity prices here, too, most notably some of the stuff that is relatively cheap, like the grains are,” he adds.

How High Will Soybeans Rally?
With the chart breakout will July soybeans be able to take out the March high of $12.50 3/4 and will November soybeans get above $12?

Kooima says both of those moves are in the cards. “Based on the chart pattern here and the fact we have broke out of the range we have been in for six or seven weeks. When you break out of those consolidation patterns that it’s like coiling a spring. I always think the tighter it’s wound then the bigger reaction you get. So, this thing actually projects through that old $12.50 area on the July beans which is a big deal. On both the
weekly chart and on the daily chart it actually opens up the path here for a move to $12.70 or even maybe even closer to $13 on the old crop.”

That could put November in the $12.40 to $12.50 price range where he would suggest some marketing.

Corn Makes Fresh Highs, Dec Closes Above $5
Corn also made fresh highs for the move in sympathy with soybeans and on fund buying.

Funds bought over 80,000 contracts and could add to that Kooima says.

“You don’t have to be a genius to look at $4.85 to $4.87 on the July corn to know how important that is. Let’s see if we can take that out. December corn, you know, that’s new highs for the move. Nice looking chart pattern. We are kind of overbought here. I don’t know if we need to rest just a little bit. But, you know, incrementally, I was starting to look at some new crop sales here. And then the next level at around $5.20. And then the next one around $5.45. I’m more inclined to sell into the corn rally.”

He says the market is also watching weather, lower acreage and fertilizer concerns plus whether or not China buys corn at the summit.

Soybeans, Corn Make Fresh Highs on Demand, China Hopes: Cattle Spiral

Mon, 04 May 2026 15:53:39 GMT

Soybeans and corn were higher early Monday, wheat started lower then bounced. Cattle and hogs were lower.

July Soybeans Break Out
Soybean futures had made some fresh highs for the move early Monday with July trying to break out of its sideways trading range.

John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says it is a function of record crush and hopes for China business ramping up to the mid-May meeting between the two countries, which trade teams are still preparing for despite the ongoing Iran conflict.

“You got the technical breakout. So we’re seeing some money flow triggering that. You still got this really good demand on the crush side here domestically in that regard. So I think that’s supportive of the market as well. But then obviously, too until that meeting happens on the 14th to 15th and this market might be building some anticipation that China could step into the market, either old crop, new crop, pick up some beans in that regard. So I think that’s some of what’s happening here,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Pace
Crush margins continue to be strong with the recent contract highs in bean oil and surging global demand regarding biofuels but he says soybean meal is keeping pace.

“You’re looking at some of these crush margins at their best levels in history, or at least in modern history in terms of support for that crush industry,” he says.

USDA’s crush report for March pegged soybean crush at 227.4 million bushels which was below expectations, but it was still a record.

“I’m hearing some different talk about some regional tightness. So, I guess the question now is where the beans are. Are they hanging on to
them? What’s left? What’s it going to take to get them out? So watching the basis levels and what’s happening regionally with these crushers is going to be a big part of this market here in the short term. And I’ve said it before, if margins are good, crushers will pay whatever they want to per bushel of beans, just as long as they’ve got the crush margin taken care of and profitability coming,” he says.

Import South American Soybeans?
At what point though will processors start buying cheaper South American soybeans?

Heinberg says, “I think we’re actually pretty close to that point. And that’s the next thing I’m kind of waiting for is that headline. You know, you’re looking at Brazilian beans, maybe $1, $1.30 bushel underneath the United States right now on the export markets. And the biggest problems in South America, obviously, is the monster crop that Brazil had. The Chinese demand has not been there and so there there’s processors or elevators sitting on piles of beans right now and they’re getting to a window here where they may just have to put those
beans on the market just to get some cash flow moving it could be a very interesting situation for some of those Brazil elevators down there if the beans don’t start getting moving because they were counting on that Chinese demand to pick up those beans. When China picking up those U.S. beans late in the winter, first part of the year, I think it’s really kind of curbed into that expectation from those Brazilian elevators down there.”

November Soybeans Make Fresh Highs
November soybeans also made new highs for the move on Friday and again Monday morning.

Can November get above $12? Heinberg says that is the next target and may be pushed by China if they buy the 25 MMT the president has suggested.

Heinberg says, “Maybe China does not pick up old crop beans, but they go ahead and forget they talk about buying 25 MMT of soybeans for the next year. So, maybe they start looking into that window here as well. I think that’s something that continues to support the market.”

The cold wet weather may be causing some planting delays as well which may give beans that little bit of a push.

Corn Follows Soybeans, Capped by Wheat
Corn futures made new highs for the move overnight but were slightly lower early Monday with the pullback in wheat capping the rally as well as some farmer selling he says.

“We’ve seen a lot of really good money flow into the core market. In fact, we picked up, what, 80,000 contracts almost as of Tuesday last week,
and obviously it didn’t stop on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday,” he says.

However, the market was supported by the rally in soybeans.

$5 December Corn
December corn broke above $5 on Friday very briefly as farmer selling stepped in and is back above that level on Monday.

“I think people that missed the first chance at it are now jumping on the second chance. So I think that’s part of it. Historically, $5 corn is a pretty good point to definitely get some things going,” he says.

While producers have sold some corn at $5, he thinks a close above that level could open the door to $5.20 to $5.25.

The corn market is also watching planting pace and if any acres get shifted away from corn but the market will get its first indication of 2026-27 supply and demand in the May WASDE.

The market is also awaiting the March 13 vote on E15 in Congress and the corn market continues to be supported by high gas and crude oil prices.

Lastly, the Brazilian second corn crop has been under stress and bears watching, despite some forecasts for rain coming up.

China Buying Corn?
And just like soybeans the corn market is watching and waiting for the mid-May meeting in China with hopes for corn business.

Market chatter indicates China has been looking for some U.S. corn and that may be another reason why the funds may have been aggressive buyers recently.

Or Heinberg says China could be looking at buying ethanol, which would also be a boost for corn.

Wheat Topping?
The wheat market is seeing some pressure on Monday with rains in the forecast for some of the hard red winter wheat areas.

He thinks the market may have topped out in the short term, even though the funds have added to their length in wheat.

“The funds are record-long spring wheat right now because of the dryness in the Northern Plains. And we’ll have to see how those things all kind of play out. But at least wheat market may be finding a bit of a ceiling here. And if that happens, that’ll keep the market a little bit limited, even though the demand continues to be very good,” he says.

The Kansas Wheat Tour is coming up the week of May 11 but the market has priced much of that production loss in already he adds.

Money Flow Into Grains
The risk of the war with Iran and high energy prices and inflation concerns have all brought money into the grains and that could keep prices supported going forward says Heinberg.

“Crude oil over $100 I think it keeps some general support overall in the marketplace at this time frame. You know, maybe that’s some of the rally we’ve had too, is just the fact that corn needed to catch up to where crude is. You know, obviously there’s headline risk like we’ve seen
today, you know, possible hit on U.S. naval vessels. 15 minutes later, it was, you know, the U.S. said that did not happen. But in that time window, corn flashed to the highs of the day. Crude oil was up over $105 a barrel. You know, so that volatility continues to stay headline to
headline,” he says.

Cattle Futures Seeing Topping Action?
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower early Monday. Both markets hit record highs on Friday before staging reversals and possibly doing some chart damage. However, is this topping action?

Heinberg says the market may need a pullback, but a top is too early to call because fundamentally little has changed as far as supplies.

“The numbers just aren’t out there even look at the feeder market trading $4 under the index today,” he says.

He says the market has also been led by last week’s record cash and that is still king.

Packers bought a good amount of cattle last week so cash could be on the quiet side this week.

“But, you know, we are getting into that window where grilling demand is going to kick in here,” he adds.

Lean Hogs Close to Bottoming?
Lean hog futures have been down the last three sessions seemingly in response to the first cases of pseudorabies since 2004.

While it isn’t a food safety concern and there are vaccines for the disease the uncertainty seemed to weigh on futures plus there was some technical selling triggered.

Heinberg thinks the market is close to support levels.

“If you draw a line underneath the low going back to November, we’re right at that area. Actually, we traded under it a little bit on Friday and
recovered. Today, we back-tested that line again. So we’ll see this $100, $101 window on June. It does look like it’s at least a level that maybe this market can hold, but not really seeing any great strength in it today. Some of it is money flow. The funds are down to, as of Tuesday, 57,000
long contracts on hogs. That’s a pretty big chop considering where we were a few months ago in that regard. Hopefully it’s an area can find some support. Maybe it’s disease concerns just causing that, you know, again, the computers like to trade headlines and that might be the headline they’re pushing now with the pseudorabies issues. But at the same time, it’s starting to look a little bit like we’re undervalued here in these summer hogs, but we need some turn somewhere to get a little bit of a bid underneath this market.

Grains End Higher for April: Is a Bull Market Underway?

Sat, 02 May 2026 01:02:38 GMT

For the week July corn was up 16 3/4 cents, December was 14 ½ higher, July soybeans gained 24 ¾, November soybeans soared 27, July soybean meal was up $.20, July soybean oil surged 383 points, July hard red winter wheat was 24 ¾ higher, July soft red winter wheat gained 21 and September hard red spring wheat was up 12 ½.

Higher Monthly Closes in April
Grain markets were all higher for the week and closed April with a second consecutive higher monthly close.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says technically it is a very bullish to see grain markets making new highs for the year starting in May.

What Does it Signal?
“When you close above the previous month’s high, usually what that tells you is that going all the way back to January the market is digesting and discounting all the fundamental news that came out, even the most bearish news in the January 12 WASDE,” he explains.

The market also rejected the bearish news from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum in February and the delayed meeting with China in March.

“All that was digested and you couldn’t close below the previous month’s low like we did in past down trending markets.The market indicated it needed to push prices high enough to ration the demand for some reason and it exceeds all those fundamentals that are there. And we did it in April,” he adds.

Now the market is looking ahead at acreage according to Gulke and trying to determine if there will be more acres of soybeans and less acres of corn because of high fertilizer prices.

“So, you end up on Friday with corn going up more than beans or as much as beans, five cents. So, it looks like there’s a concern out there that even with lower exports to China and a record crop in Brazil, we need more acres of soybeans. That’s pretty exciting,” he says.

Now that the market has moved above the April highs he says the confirmation of a bull market is to see that uptrend continue in May.

“I want to see that continue in the first full trading day and week in May and through the WASDE report.Historically this time frame in May 10-13 has been a time when the market prices in the best news.So, we need to hold above that April high during May or there is a problem,” he says.

Currently he thinks the market is acting like it doesn’t care how many acres of corn or soybeans farmers grow because it is not going to be adequate.

Start of a Bigger Bull Market?
So, is this the beginning of a bigger bull market like the one that started in 2020 coming out of COVID?

Gulke thinks so and it’s being pushed by demand.

Two Large Demand Factors
1. Global Biofuels – The first demand component is the global push for biofuels.

Gulke says it’s not just the U.S. but economies around the world are looking at alternatives to mitigate $100 plus crude oil prices, plus high gasoline diesel fuel prices.

Countries like Indonesia are pushing from a B40 to a B50 biodiesel mandate and Brazil is increasing their ethanol blending rate from 30% to 32%.

Gulke says even in Illinois they have increased their vegetable oil based biodiesel blending rate from 10% to 20%.are using a 20% biodiesel blend made from soybean oil.

He says, “If crude oil stays above $100 suddenly everyone is going to need alternatives.”

2. Food Security – The second demand component is a function of food security.

Gulke says with near to record higher global fertilizer prices and a supply crunch in many countries’ food insecurity is on the rise.

“If you’re in a crisis area for crude oil and energy, you’ve got to say which is more important, the food I eat or the fuel that I burn in a car to go get my groceries?”

While the U.S. doesn’t have a problem with energy supplies, the prices are globally driven.

“Countries that have to import 70% to 80% of their energy, and they’re also importing food. You’ve got to be thinking about storing a little more grain in your country just in case,” he adds.

Plus, if tariffs are causing countries to buy more from the U.S., Gulke thinks that helps with demand.

Bull Markets Difficult to Manage
So, if the U.S. is on the verge of a bull market what should producers do?

Gulke says bull markets are difficult to manage.

“Bear markets, when something happens, you can sell on the bottom, gravity takes over. Bull markets just keep eating away at the negative rhetoric, like we’ve seen for months in the agriculture community. The price of inputs is going up but the price of commodities is also going up to help mitigate some of that, unless you are highly leveraged,” he describes.

According to Gulke, the problem is also if farmers sell now and the price goes up, they feel like they’ve left money on the table.

“So, it’s very difficult to handle bull markets because you can’t pick a top until it’s behind you in most cases but it’s still exciting,” he concludes.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Grains End Higher as Funds Buy on Inflation Concerns: Cattle, Hogs Lower

Fri, 01 May 2026 21:39:09 GMT

Grains ended higher on Friday with livestock lower.

Soybeans Rally with Bean Oil
Soybeans were higher on Friday following bean oil which made new contract highs and hit levels not seen since June of 2022.

Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says the bean oil market has been seeing strong U.S. and global demand with various countries announcing biodiesel mandates.

“Soybean oil has been the lead driver for the bean complex. Years ago, meal was the driver for beans. It’s now the oil due to the biodiesel.
That definitely is helping it,” he says.

Frost and Cold Weather
Soybeans may have also been adding risk premium due to frost concerns.

Some areas of the Corn Belt already saw freezing temperatures and are facing replant and there is another push of cold weather coming in the next few of days.

He says, “Another cold shot this weekend and there is worry about some replant going on. Parts of the country earlier this week also had some very, very heavy rains. We are hearing parts of Southern Indiana, Illinois might have to replant as well,” he says.

New Month, New Money in the Grains on Inflationary Buying
McCormick says a new month also brought in new money on inflation concerns.

“You know, as long as you have the problems in the Middle East going on, you’re going to have people wanting to buy commodities on the energy inflation hedge. And then the other story line you’re going to continue to hear is about the food inflation risk due to the fact of not getting fertilizer there. There’s fear there will be a shortage in the Southern hemisphere growing season. That is attracting spec money into the markets as well,” he adds.

He says there are plenty of investors that made money on the last round of inflation that started in 2020 and hit its height in 2022.

“Coming out of COVID, they made a lot of money trading that inflation story. So some of that money, I believe, is coming into the market. And that is what’s supporting the corn market,” he says.

The record high diesel fuel prices are also driving up inflation McCormick warns.

“Remember, everything is used, you know. for you know in energy to get that product to where we need it so you know you’re you know and then so much of the packaging is derived from products made from energy from crude. So you know that has got a lot of the just inspect investor money saying I want to own an asset that could make me money if we come back into inflationary times. We got some inflationary readings this week shows that the inflation is going the wrong way compared to what the Fed wants. It’s starting to creep back up and that tends to attract money near term.”

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
How much higher can soybean oil go if crude oil stays above $100? Is that the key here for keeping the funds interested in that market or not?

He says, “I think that’s one of the major keys. I mean, the fact is as crude oil continues to go higher, as the Strait stays shut, that probably is going to be supportive.”

The caveat is competition from other lower priced veg oils he explains. “What we’re finally starting to see is we saw the story six months, a year ago, where we were bringing a lot of used cooking oil in from China and going into our renewable diesel plants. Well, we’re starting to hear reports that that is happening again. So what it’s showing you is the price of bean oil domestically has gotten so competitively priced, so high priced, I should say, that you can now import it. That will tend to ration. the demand for the product a little bit, and that might at least at a minimum, slow the upward momentum.”

Worst case, he says it could force the top in the market.

Soybean Chart Breakout
Soybeans had a strong technical day with July closing above $12 and the November contract making a new contract high.

November soybeans could go higher but it depends on if the funds want to add to their long position.

“I would argue, the market isn’t trading your typical grain fundamentals. You’re trading macro fundamentals of the Middle East. And you’re trading, like I mentioned, the inflationary aspect of it. That can carry the market a lot further than economically it really makes sense. So really, the money flow is going to be the key to how far this market can be carried higher,” he says.

Although the July contract closed above $12 he says that contract is still range bound.

“It is still sideways. It’s taken out the near-term range. It has not taken out the high, I believe that was spike made the past fall when the Trump administration announced the China trade deal.”

China Meeting Key
He says that is the key for the market is if the China meeting happens in mid-May and is not delayed again.

“If talks with President Trump and Xi are still on, and President Trump is anticipated to make his way over to China here in the next couple of weeks you’re probably going to hear more rhetoric potentially about what China may do. I do not believe there are going to be a big buyer of old crop beans. They did in that first agreement back in the fall talk about buying 25 million metric tons of new crop beans. We’ll see if they can lock that down and get a hard commitment,” he explains.

If that deal doesn’t happen the soybean market could fall apart.

“We know I think the last time we go around when we had to postpone the meeting, the market did sell off a little bit. And there is a lot of uncertainty to it. Like I said, President Trump sounds like he wants to go. But, you know, we’ll see, you know, with the war going on in the
Middle East, I think all, you know, we probably, you know, this thing could fall apart at the last minute,” he adds.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn made new highs for the move while December again was capped by the $5 mark.

McCormick says the funds are buying corn because of inflation concerns and the fertilizer issues.

“There’s no doubt about it I mean part of it is you are seeing some buying I think definitely on the fertilizer plate now most people agree that the fertilizer in the U.S. is expensive but there is no shortage. We’re pricing on a world market and if our prices are too cheap somebody from the rest of the world will come in and buy it and ship it back there but it’s here,” he says.

The world is worried if the Strait isn’t reopened there is going to be a shortage for fall needs and South American needs.

He adds another thing attracting investor money is the ethanol grind and the price of ethanol compared to gasoline, which is much cheaper.

$5 December Corn?
So it may be just a matter of time here before December takes out the $5 level but how far can it run before farmer selling caps the rally?

He says, Well, it’s a situation where we saw a lot of farmers selling here this week as the market tried to push into that $5 level. And then I would argue as we get through that $5 level, you’re probably going to hear a backoff of selling. And then you get back up, I believe you had the contract high, I believe was right around $5.12. That’ll be the next level resistance. I mean, now the question is where are farmers going to be comfortable selling versus the speculators that want to own it?”

Six weeks ago he says farmers would have jumped at $5 corn but now there is hesitancy tied to weather and fertilizer concerns.

“So people are very hesitant to sell it and if that farmer’s not there to sell against that spec money coming in that will allow this market to move higher,” he says.

Wheat Market High In?
The wheat market saw some recovery on Friday but has corrected off the two year highs hit on Wednesday in both winter wheat classes.

So it the top in?

McCormick says, “Right now I would argue it’s a little bit more of a profit taking week. Remember, we wrapped up the week here just on Thursday. The market was way, way technically overbought, a little bit of a correction. The corn wheat spread was out of whack as well. The other thing maybe generated a little bit of profit taking and generated some selling potentially was we are importing wheat from Poland, I believe, which shows you the price of our wheat has gotten so high that you can make it comparable to bring in competition. That will limit the upside momentum.”

However, he doesn’t think the weather story is over.

“We’ve still got a long way to go. There’s not a lot of rain in the forecast. I’ve had clients that are still trying to adjust for the losses they think
they had due to the severe frost damage that they had here a week, 10 days ago. We’ve got more cold weather coming in. I’m not completely convinced that this wheat market is done with going up,” he says.

Wheat Production Losses
How much of the hard red winter wheat crop has been lost? Some estimates are as high as 200 million bushels.

McCormick says, “I would argue somewhere around 200 million on the low and maybe 300 million on the high end. Now, I know that’s a lot. But remember, we did have a big crop a year ago. So the overall supply is still relatively comfortable. That’s part of the debate of the market right now and that’s why we may not have put the top in because we just don’t know.”

He thinks USDA will make some of that adjustment in the May 12 WASDE in the first balance sheet for new crop.

Cattle Make Record Highs Then Fall
The cattle market made new contract and record highs in both live and feeder cattle futures on Friday, then ended lower.

So was that just some profit taking or the talks that packers were going to start kill cuts next week?

“I think kill cuts are part of it, but I think a lot of it was profit taking. And we had one heck of a move higher. I think we rallied $15 in roughly six days or something like that. Just one heck of a strong move. And I think some people decided, hey, they want to take some money off the table
right now. I mean, we know the story, Michelle, the cattle supply continues to be incredibly tight. We’re also moving into a time of year where the demand tends to ramp up as you go into the spring and summer barbecue grilling season,” he explains.

The key will be if the consumer is willing to pay the higher prices for beef with the spike in gas prices.

“We are in a different situation than we were last time prices were up. You have gasoline prices here outside of the Chicago suburbs trading at $5, outside of Detroit at $6. So, the question now is how much can the consumer take?”

And will they trade down to cheaper proteins.

Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies Case

The hog market was down Thursday and Friday with the first case of pseudorabies in a small commercial hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

The market was pricing in the uncertainty but how low will it go?

McCormick says he thinks the low is close. “Usually it takes one to three days to price in these negative headlines. Like you said, we’ve heard it a couple of days ago. So hopefully we’re close. It was definitely disappointing. Like you said, we haven’t had a case like this in 2004. So getting that headline definitely was a surprise to the market. And, you know, kind of a knee jerk reaction you get when you get these surprise stories.”

Cattle Futures Hit Record Highs, Are $400 Feeders Next? Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies

Fri, 01 May 2026 16:06:07 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans higher Friday, with hogs lower.

Feeders Hit Record Highs, How High Will Prices Go?
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday’s open and quickly moved into record high territory.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs.

Feeder are back as the leaders in the complex but how high will prices go now that prices are back up into record highs?

He says, “It does feel like, okay, live cattle had already made their contract highs. Feeders were next. So, what numbers can we grab? I’ve heard the $380. I’ve heard the $390. I’ve heard the $400. We’re all just reaching, making up numbers that we can. We’ve already seen eight weights spring $400 in sale barns in the North. So it’s not something out of the ordinary that can’t happen. So once we bust through, it feels like, yeah, they have the legs to do it.”

He stresses that this could be the last higher push for a while.

“We’re going to want to be ready for it. I think this is our last charge higher. I guess it’s feeling like we’re getting towards the ninth inning of this. I think we’ve probably heard that a few times, but this is a rally that is going to be the one that’s going to be the one that we’re going to want to sell, I guess. So the chance to get to $4 is there. It really could happen,” he adds.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs First
Live cattle had already hit record highs earlier in the week and took out those levels again on Friday.

The market says some end of month profit taking Thursday but charged back higher Friday morning chasing cash.

Record cash trade broke already on Tuesday at $11, $12 higher than last week at $258 in the North, $255 to $256 in the South.

He says it caught the market by surprise, “I mean, that’s not something that’s normal. And it’s odd because when we were getting bid the $246, And the market wasn’t trading as hot as it was. I think the packers could have just went to $248 and bought all of the show lists and bought all
of the cattle. The fact that they waited another week, was it a shoot, you caught me bluffing move? Or was there somebody that’s really long, this board that wanted it to go higher? I don’t know and we won’t know. But regardless. Big charge higher, $12.”

He says bids started Tuesday at $250 and quickly went to $252 and then to $255.

“I thought that would do it. And then was just surprised when I started hearing that everybody was passing it and then get to $258, which a lot of people did get that and did trade that. You could get it for shorter. You could get two over the August for basis contracts. So, the packer was trying to get as many cattle around them as they can. And I would believe that everything on the show list, if you’re passing that kind of price, I don’t know what you’re waiting for,” he adds.

He hasn’t seen anything like it since 2014 but it was a big inventory grab and packers bought for delayed delivery as well.

Packers Buy Ahead of Kill Cuts
Packers were aggressively getting inventory as they are talking about kill cuts starting next week.

“Just hearing that there’s some majors that are going to start kill cuts next week, start to slow down the chain. And I mean, it’s just, it’s how tight we are. In this cattle industry, we’re, you know, 8% down, 8 to 9% down on steer to heifer slaughter this year. Cow slaughter is way down. Dairy cow slaughter is down. It’s just there’s still a shortage. So this last little push is all on supply, in my opinion. And I think that’s how the packer is trying to manage it,” he explains.

He says they are cutting kills to get boxed beef to move higher and improve their margins and the industry is still down a plant from a strike.

How High Will Live Cattle Futures Run?
Live cattle have continued to push into record high areas but how high will prices go?

Varilek says it is hard to even project because there are no technical areas on the charts to even compare to now.

“You’re up in new territory. You’re just grabbing, you know whatever number comes to your mind somebody wants to say a really high number so they can get remembered. I would rather try to do you guys some good rather than just make up a number up high and try to throw it to you that’s just that’s all made up,” he adds.

But he does say it depends not just on supply but demand.

“For me it’s just that this demand is going to have to pick up if we’re going to keep these live cattle running through and that’s the part that’s seeming to be just a little bit lacking. Seeing mixed feelings on what these steak cuts are doing. You know, the ribeye rolls are down. Usually we’re trying to, you know, see how high we can get those or how much a consumer is going to pay for them this time of year in the red hot grilling season, Mother’s Day weekend coming up and we’re actually dropping them a little bit. So I don’t like that,” he further explains.

Plus, he says with energy prices soaring it is hitting consumer pocketbooks which could also ratchet back demand.

Hogs Fall on Iowa Pseudorabies Case
Lean hog futures were down on Thursday and again Friday with the uncertainty tied to the first case of pseudorabies in a hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

“So it’s five boars that were shipped, you know, were. tested positive and some were shipped from Texas to Iowa. So sounding like it was show pigs, not sure. Can’t totally confirm that, but that would make sense on how that happened,” he says.

However, the disease is manageable according to Varilek.

“So we have vaccination capabilities already, protocol in place. So, for me it’s okay I think we’re going to be able to eradicate this once again and make this a short-lived kind of a worry here because it it is something that that’s real and I mean it’s something that can have you know
they could be dead within 48 to 72 hours. Hogs are a great host likely mixed with some feral hogs so it is around.”

Is it Bullish or Bearish?
Varilek says it does severely cut production which takes supply off the market which is bullish.

However, it is still a market uncertainty.

“So uncertainty is always bearish. Packers are trying to note some certain timeframes where they would kill hogs with pseudo rabies. So they were still entering, you know. you know, the meat supply. We weren’t worried about it back then. So because they had windows where you could slaughter those hogs. So a lot to digest here real fast. Everybody’s Googling pseudorabies and trying to learn as much as they can here real fast,” he adds.

Nov Soybeans Hit Contract Highs, Corn Also Higher
Corn and soybeans were higher early with November soybeans making new contract highs.

Varilek soybeans are following the new contract highs in bean oil.

“That seems to be the biggest thing, just the energy is staying so strong. And that’s making a lot of the headlines, the war. and how high crude oil is. So, I think that those markets are starting to respect that. I mean from a production side yeah you said more acres we’re seeing a little bit of replant we’ve got some frost. Which usually those rallies that are based off of frost and replant those are rallies that are meant to be sold. But I don’t think that that’s all of this I do think it’s energy,” he states.

Can Dec Corn Get Above $5?
Corn is also higher on the biofuels push with strong ethanol margins and profits.

With $100 crude oil corn could stay supported for a while and chew through some of the large ending stocks.

So will Dec corn get above $5?

Varilek says, “So we’ve got a bar right there, $5. We’ve seen it fail there a few times. Now I think if you just poke through it. I think you’re going to get some follow through strength on it just because it’s been such a number. Oh, that looks easy. Just sell it right below five bucks here and let it break. But those triple tops never hold, they kind of say. So I feel like we’re going to be able to get through it and might get some follow
through.”

He adds that the funds are long corn and the news may finally be good enough to rally the corn and grain markets.

Corn and Wheat Pause on Profit Taking: November Soybeans Hit New Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 21:41:45 GMT

Grain markets ended mostly lower except new crop soybeans, cattle were mixed with hogs lower.

Corn and Wheat Take a Breather
Corn and wheat both ended lower on Thursday.

Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says wheat made new highs on Wednesday and was overbought and due for a correction.

Corn made new highs for the move in the overnight session before seeing some pressure from the lower wheat market and profit taking as it was end of the month, plus the start of the delivery period for May contracts.

“I think there was a lot of that definitely at play with the session here to obviously to finish the month. We know the funds have definitely been buyers here again. So seeing them take some profits here after a really strong move is good to see as long as we’re holding support. And so far that seems to be the case. We did have some healthy retracement levels tested during the session. But so far we haven’t seen any meaningful changes fundamentally. And I think that’s going to keep support here under the whole grain complex,” she explains.

The crude oil market also corrected after spiking in the overnight session which may have weighed on corn and wheat as well.

She says, “Yes, crude had losses today too, but there too, we had a very strong overnight session and pushed to some new highs for the move.”

Corrections Are Healthy
She says the corrections in corn and especially wheat are healthy.

“We can’t go in a steep climb forever. You’re going to have to have pullbacks. And honestly, just after the beginning of this week, or even looking back the past three weeks, we’ve had some phenomenal rallies. Wheat, for instance, rallying over $1 in most contracts across all three exchanges. So having a first pullback here, you know, with some double digits is actually healthy for the market. And again, we haven’t
seen anything fundamentally change the story here today. Makes me think it’s more technical,” she adds.

Farmer Selling
With the big run up in prices there was likely some farmer selling as well.

Thompson says she hopes farmers took advantage of the rally to do some pricing.

“We’ve been definitely pushing to be making some sales, especially on a strong run that’s, again, a lot of weather and momentum traded. So it always makes you a little leery, especially this time of year. There is risk ahead, don’t get me wrong, but you’ve got to be rewarding the market when we’re getting rallies and strong moves to some new highs, of course, that producers haven’t seen for a couple of years,” she states.

Weather Change?
There was also some rains in the forecast for HRW wheat areas like Texas. In the past those rains have been disappointing and if the pattern stays the same wheat could add back weather premium according to Thompson.

Plus, she says it may be too late for the rain to help some areas.

“Yeah, at this point, I think a lot of the damage has been done. I’ve talked to producers down there. I’ve also talked to some custom harvesters who’ve been moving or trying to talk to clients who’ve been all the way down to Texas. And unfortunately, one person even commented that they weren’t able to get any farms that were willing to book for wheat anywhere South of South Dakota. So I think that there’s definitely some production issues there,” she says.

There is some replanting taking place but with 34% of the U.S. crop heading it is going to be too late for rain to make a difference in her opinion.

How Big Are the Production Losses?
So are all of the losses priced into the market and what production cuts could be expected?

Thompson says, “Well, that’s the million dollar question is where is final production going to be? But ultimately, the market’s pricing in where these production losses are going to be. And ultimately, it depends what the USDA does. We know they’re kind of notorious for kicking that can down the road. So it could take a couple months before we really start seeing what production is going to be like. And it probably will wait
until we get further into harvest. So end of May, beginning of June, when we normally see winter wheat starting to harvest that we start really building something here on this market.”

She reiterated that wheat markets have a history of going further in extreme times than a lot of people would think.

“And I think we’re in that environment now where we could see prices continue to spike higher.”

Spring Wheat Planting Slow
The spring wheat market was down from the contract highs hit on Wednesday.

Prices have finally moved above $7 and hopefully are profitable enough to entice farmers in the North to continue to plant.

But is the market concerned about low acreage or yields?

“A fair question. You know, South of me, you don’t have to go very far an hour closer to Fargo. And there are guys who are already done planting spring wheat, getting beets in the ground. And then up in my area, just an hour North and beyond, there isn’t any real equipment moving. We really haven’t turned anything yet. And even this morning, we had snowflakes falling in the area. So spring isn’t exactly here yet. And that’s, you know, just keeping things a little bit at bay,” she says.

But it is still early and so she thinks the intended acres will get planted but none beyond that especially with higher fertilizer prices.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says any farmers that have booked fertilizer are more likely to use it on corn acres instead of wheat.

Many industry analysts believe corn acres are dropping but Thompson thinks in the North the acres will be close to intentions.

“A lot of guys booked fertilizer early. Talking with producers where I think those acres are kind of locked in I don’t foresee a big switch coming from our area. I think a lot of guys are intending to plant acres again, just based on what they produced last year. They had a very good season. So I think guys are really going to try and get the corn in the ground, especially if they have the fertilizer booked. If they don’t, might be a different story case by case. But I do think that we’re going to get a lot of the corn going in the ground this year,” she adds.

$5 Dec Corn
With a cut in acres and high fertilizer prices the December corn is flirting with $5. Will it get above that level?

She is optimistic it will for several reasons.

“You know, demand has been very strong for corn. And I know we’re starting to talk about the U.S. growing season and not really seeing, you know, a lot of risk there yet necessarily. I mean, planting pace is going good. Conditions are going to be around the corner here and there’s no hiccups. But we also have to remember South America is a big one right now. And over the next couple of weeks, a lot of their top producing areas further north are going to be starting to go into a dry and hot season. And I think that could have more of an impact on the global corn market, especially with ending stocks at 10-year lows, stocks to use ratio at 10-year lows. We can’t afford a problem. And of course, we have the growing season ahead here yet. So to see the risk appetite in the grains that we have right now, I think it definitely leaves the door open,” she says.

Technically if Dec corn can get about $5.03 she thinks there is a good chance to go to $5.25.

Soybeans End Mixed But Off Lows
Soybeans were under pressure early but did come back with the rally to new contract highs in bean oil even though crude oil reversed lower.

She says a biofuel report show an increase in usage which helped push bean oil.

“So I think that the demand on the oil side could step up some more. But ultimately, that’s what’s leading the market. I mean, we hit three and a half year highs today, and that certainly helps the idea for soybeans. And that complex is really split. It’s obviously a product market. We’ve been following meal for the last couple of weeks. Now it seems like it’s switching over to the oil side. And oil, when that’s leading, can definitely create volatility. So I expect that we’re going to stay range bound here unless soy oil can really kick it into another gear.”

Soybeans Attempt Chart Breakout
The soybean market attempted to break out of its sideways trading range and got above $12 but could not close above that level.

November soybeans made a new high but then closed back under that level.

She says, “It’s really good to see the market really probing those resistance levels and really trying to break through them. But until we can get a close above $12 or above in July, you know, $11.75 in November, it makes it really difficult. You know, the market ultimately is still looking for a catalyst. We have supportive elements there. They’ve been there for a while and they’re keeping us at the top of the range, but the market clearly wants more to get there. So it’ll be interesting to see as we go forward.”

China Deal or Crush?
The one catalyst the market may be waiting for is the results of the China meeting on May 14 and 15 as record crush alone has not been able to get the market above current trading ranges.

“Crush margins remain very strong. So, I think domestically we’re definitely set up and we’ve seen that shift we’ve been talking about it here for several months that you know soybeans used to be a dominantly export market and we’re really starting to see it shift to the product side and so to see that strength build I think it’s just a switch happening within the complex and soybeans are obviously reacting to it and I think it does give us a very good floor under soybeans,” she further explains.

Live Cattle Consolidate
Live cattle futures were mostly lower after hitting record highs on Wednesday on the heels of record cash.

She chalks it up to month end profit taking similar to the grain markets.

“We’ve had a healthy run you’re gonna have to have healthy pullbacks too. It’s good for the market so we’re obviously going to be trying to find support here grains as well same with the livestock just finding where that level of support is going to be where buyers are going to step back in and I think that’s the environment we’re in across the board,” she says.

Funds have been eager to buy on breaks which should also keep the market supported.

Grain and Cattle Futures Pause on Profit After Some Hit Fresh Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:55:48 GMT

Grain and livestock markets are mostly lower early Thursday.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets are taking a pause on Thursday after some new highs for the move overnight in July corn. Plus, 22 month highs Wednesday in both winter wheat classes and new contract highs in bean oil, December corn and hard red spring wheat.

Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says it’s end of the month, so he chalks this up to some routine profit taking and farmer selling.

“You saw with the new highs in the corn market, a lot of new farmers selling, just cleaning up some old crop stuff, but probably a little bit bigger movement on the new crop as we just got fractionally close to $5 December futures. That’s the highest level we could have sold to date on the December contract,” he explains.

Markets Eye Crude Oil
The markets are also watching the movement in crude oil, which was sharply higher on Thursday and overnight with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

Crude oil backed off and pushed slightly lower early Thursday on end of month profit taking and Nellinger thinks that may have trimmed gains in the grain markets as well.

“We’ve had crude oil really screaming higher, got north of $110. It reversed overnight and is back a couple dollars lower. And so I think all of that is kind of a little bit of a headwind here, but it’s not like it’s aggressive selling yet. Just kind of a normal correction lower. I don’t think it’s anything out of the ordinary,” he says.

Wheat Rally Over?
The wheat market was overbought and do for a correction plus it is first notice day for May contracts and Nellinger says there were some deliveries in Kansas City wheat.

“There’s an old saying on the Chicago Board of Trade grain floor from way back when, buy first notice day. I don’t know if that’s going to hold true today. Kansas City wheat had some deliveries on that May contract. A little bit shocking. You know, sometimes when you get to first notice day, the commercials really kind of start playing a high-stakes poker game, trying to, you know, sift each other out and figure out who’s got the ace in their pocket. And so I think that commercial delivery in the Kansas City May contract this morning had a little bit of a negative tone to it. After a big run into the month, good reason to pull back a little bit.”

There are also rain chances for Texas and that may have also caused funds to take some profits.

However, Nellinger doesn’t think the lower production concerns are priced in yet.

“We’ve likely priced in a lot of the multi-week crop condition decline. But to your point, we don’t know what the ultimate yields are. There’s a lot of people saying, hey, rains don’t matter at this point. We’re too far gone on yields. We may even abandon these acres and not get harvested. So we know there’s damage, but sometimes you have to wait to get into harvest to figure out really what is there. But certainly rain in the forecast, even if it’s a small chance, you know, is not immediately bullish. But likely we’ve dialed in a lot of a lot of bullishness with yield pullbacks. But we won’t know till harvest the ultimate result there,” he says.

Frost Concerns
There are also forecasts for cold temperatures and some frost in some areas of the wheat belt as far South as Nebraska.

Some of the corn and soybeans that have been planted may also be suseptible.

“Yeah, I think on the eastern Corn Belt side, there certainly would be. Again, I don’t think it’s a tremendous amount of acres, but we’re far enough long on the production cycle there that a hard freeze now, once we’re about to turn the calendar here to May, certainly could nip a little bit of wheat. It’s not the perfect time for a frost. We’re far enough along in the development that it could hurt, but I think the frost line is going to be far enough north. probably going to be out of that main wheat growing area in the Eastern Corn Belt here,” he adds.

Does Corn Take Out $5?
December corn got just a tick from $5 on Thursday as it made new contract highs as it has been getting help from the wheat market and the run up in energy prices.

However, if the wheat market rally is over does corn have enough of it’s own story to take out $5?

Nellinger thinks so. “You know, we’re coming into the timeframe here. First part of May, we’re typically put in a spring high. I think everybody’s kind of watching that. And everyone’s asking that same question, Michelle. I think some of it depends on crude oil. You know, crude oil went very quickly from $90 a barrel to north of $110 a barrel. The world took notice of that. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. So I think some of it depends on what happens the next 10 days, two weeks on crude oil prices,” he says.

The May crop report is also coming up and the market may need demand confirmation from USDA on corn and beans to keep going, but he’s not ruling it out.

“I wouldn’t put it past this to get north of $5 on Dec corn. I don’t know if it’s dramatically north of there as there’s going to be a lot of farmer selling on a push north of $5,” he adds.

Fertilizer Story for 2026 or 2027?
Still with high fertilizer prices and some farmers unable to get supplies there is talk of lower corn acreage for 2026 but is this more of a 2027 story?

He says, “I think it’s both. I’m getting a sense of that as well. And I think that’s maybe drawn some kind of outside equity money in or money off the sidelines kind of as an investment into grains. I get this sense that there’s a narrative across the world of potential food shortages, yield losses due to lack of availability or rationing of nitrogen due to high prices. I think it’s yet to be seen. It’s certainly not something that’s bearish.”

It will impact the Southern Hemisphere, Brazil and Argentina in particular according to Nellinger.

“We have some issues brewing here. So I think it is a story. It’s not going to go away anytime soon,” he says.

Basis Improvement on Corn
Even with the higher futures prices on corn the basis has also improved which is perplexing to Nellinger.

He says, “Yes, you can argue that producers were in the field doing field work, some early planning in the Southern portions. But that basis improvement started even before they got in the field. So surprisingly, over here in the Eastern Corn Belt, things look relatively tight. I don’t think there’s a lot of old crop corn left. Basis has improved. Demand’s good. But in the Northwest Corn Belt, I don’t think the basis has improved as much.”

Export demand may be part of the reason and weekly sales were strong at nearly 63 million bu. again on Thursday.

“Still running, what, 2%, 3% ahead of the pace that the USDA has, and that’s a massive number to begin with. So there has been no slowdown yet,” he says.

High crude oil prices have ethanol margins strong and even with a smaller cattle herd he says producers are feeding to much heavier weights.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed ethanol production was down 31,000 barrels per day, but it was because of routine maintenance.

E15 Possible?
The House passed the farm bill without the E15 amendment but is looking for an alternative to get it passed yet this week before Congress goes on recess until May 12.

How big of demand push will that be for corn?

Nellinger says it will help but it won’t shoot prices higher.

“Unless it’s a mandatory, you know, a mandated thing that we’re going to use X percent. If it’s voluntary, it will help, but probably not to the massive bullish extent that maybe people hope for,” was his opinion.

Soybeans Retrace But Still Sideways
Soybeans are easing as well on Thursday with the rest of the grain complex and seeing some end of month positioning.

However, the soybean oil rallying to new contract highs on Thursday has been supportive as well as hopes for a China deal.

He says, “There’s a lot of optimism that these mid-May China-U.S. trade talks are going to immediately produce large Chinese bean purchases. Not sure if I’m in that camp, but it’s going to hold the bean market fairly firm on breaks in here for a couple of weeks. And you mentioned bean oil. We’ve been hitting new contract highs there again following crude oil.”

Is Bean Oil Close to a Top?
So is bean oil getting overpriced or is it putting in a top?

Nellinger says the big key is when is the Strait of Hormuz going to open and when is oil going to start flowing.

“Crush margins are near record. And so crush demand domestically is just through the roof. And that’s helping bean demand,” he says.

Cattle Consolidate Off Record Highs
Live cattle futures hit record highs on Thursday following record cash trade.

However, Nellinger says they are due for a correction especially as it is end of the month.

“The speed that we went up, yeah, the cash market was massively strong, way better than expected. Probably due for a break in here. I’m not so sure that the packers didn’t get long and then goose the cash market. They’ve been known to do that, and then they take profits immediately after that. So no reason we’ve got to break $20 barring some sort of a Black Swan news event but we are probably overextended and need a little bit of a break here to correct the overbought condition,” he says.

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged For Now?
The Fed left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of their April meeting but the surprise was there were four dissenting votes giving the indication that additional rate cuts are off the table for 2026.

In fact if energy prices stay high with the ongoing war and inflation continues to flair is it possible the Fed could have to raise rates this year?

Nellinger says its possible, “Yeah, I think you would have to, you know, and you may have to anyway. I think that the the $100 plus crude oil is going to take several months to sift through the world economy. So we haven’t even seen some of the effects of that on prices. Think about everything that moves with diesel trains, automobiles, planes, barges, you name it. it is a big deal so the longer we stay at or above $100 I think the more of an argument they have to raise rates to kind of stem inflation a little bit,” he adds.

Dec Corn and Wheat see New Highs Before Fading: Live Cattle Chase Record Cash

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 21:39:28 GMT

Grains ended mostly higher except soft red winter wheat. Cattle ended mixed, hogs higher.

Grains Mostly Higher Chasing War Headlines
Grains ended mostly higher on Wednesday chasing war headlines with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and crude oil soaring $6 to $7 and looking poised to take out the March highs.

Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the grain markets were supported by money flow and funds were buying adding risk premium tied to war, inflation fears tied to higher energy prices and weather.

“Big up move in crude oil on Wednesday afternoon. And I think that’s tied back to the comments that are coming out of Trump. The ceasefire, the two-week ceasefire extension expires on Wednesday, expired on Wednesday night. Trump has made it pretty clear that we’re preparing for a lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as that stays closed, we’re getting no energy, no fertilizer coming out of that. The longer we prolong that shortage, if you will, I think the more acute the problem becomes,” he says.

He says the longer it lasts the more the inflation concerns rise.

“The big move in oil, it spills over into the food commodities and particularly into the grains, whether it’s the biofuel connection or the outright just, you know, food connection that goes along with that. We’ve seen buying interest perk up there and money flowing into the complex.”

Wheat Makes New Highs Then Fades
All three classes of wheat hit new highs early Wednesday with new contract highs in hard red spring wheat and 22 month highs in hard red winter and soft red winter, before fading.

Chatterton says dry weather has been driving the hard red winter wheat market.

“Certainly, we’re looking at weather and what the production potential is in that hard red wheat crop, particularly the dryness in western Kansas. We had some more frost overnight. It didn’t help the situation,” he explains.

The other risk comes from inflation fears he says.

“I think the inflation play and just money flowing into our complex is the other side of that so a little bit of a marriage of those two and when you look at that and your money manager placing money into the grains complex wheat is where that fund length has not been present. So, it’s the natural absorber of that,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking
The markets ended off their highs due to some farmer selling and profit taking as the market was overbought.

“Not enough damage here to really call any kind of a trend change or any kind of a top action in that chart.”

Still he thinks wheat prices could go higher until rains start falling.

“I think until we can get some assurance that you know the rains are going to start, the crop is going to stabilize these production ideas are going to stop going down you know we started at 700 million then it was 650 million then it was 625 and it was 600 now we’re sub 600 on that hard red wheat production number in some some analysts mind. So, we need to stop that trend and until we do I think that that upside emains open here,” he says.

Dec Corn Makes New Contract High, Does it Take Out $5?
The corn market has seen spillover support from higher wheat and crude oil and was also putting some inflation premium in.

December corn made a new contract high by 1 cent and then faded. So will it take out $5 eventually?

Chatterton says, “Yeah, I think we’re right on the cusp of it here. And again, I think, we’re well supported here and as being as close to that target as we are, I suspect that we make a, you know, make a move to and slightly above that. What happens from there, I guess we’ll have to see. But, you know, the market to me remains well supported again until we can get some kind of resolution in that Strait or Hormuz.”

Ethanol Production Down
Despite the run up in energy prices the ethanol production number was down 31,000 barrels per day for the week.

Chatterton says that is due to regular maintenance.

“We had the EIA data out on Wednesday at mid-session and another kind of sub par production week for ethanol. I think that’s just a sign that plants are taking their normal seasonal maintenance and a little bit of downturn here. Not anything that I would see as a long-term problem. If you look at kind of where we’re at production last week. Down 3% year over year. That is a little concerning. But overall, corn usage for ethanol is still up year over year. We are running a little bit below the seasonal pace to hit that USDA full-year target. But I think there’s plenty of time to recover from that. And blending fuels should certainly be in demand here as we go forward here, looking at the price of gasoline and diesel fuel,” he explains.

Planting Slowed
U.S. planting progress on Monday showed corn at 25%, 6% ahead of average and soybeans at a record 23%.

However, many planters are sidelined the last few days with heavy rains so will that negatively slow those numbers on Monday.

He says, “Yes, I suspect the progress numbers are still going to run ahead of normal here, Michelle, and not indicate any big overall problem. Now regionally there’s issues here. We had a pretty overdone rain here in central Illinois where I live over three inches here for the week so far and on top of some newly planted seeds for both corn and soybeans. So a little bit of replanting to be done. There’ll be a little bit of catch up that gets done.”

He says the cold temperatures will also slow emergence but so far there are no pending issues for traders to be concerned about.

I think the temperatures this week are going to prevent the crop from really you know, growing and accelerating, whether that’s germinating and coming out of the ground or just are just gaining on,

Soybeans Follow Bean Oil
Soybean futures were also higher following soaring soybean oil prices. The July contract was up 160 points and made new contract highs again supporting the soybeans.

“That certainly helps underpin what’s happening when you look at these crush rates whether it’s cash or board I mean these are some phenomenal $3 plus per bushel type crush rates no reason that these crushers won’t be running as fast as they possibly can or pushing through as much product as they can. The capacity constraint of of that is probably going to be tested here and going to be the issue going forward in terms of crush demand,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Margins
Crush margins have been running over $3.50 per bushel so very close to record highs.

“Historically, we’ve had some blips above that on a very short-term basis, but this time around, we’re looking at a little bit more of a sustained move that the change in the RVO and the biofuel regulations that have come out of the administration here, out of the EPA of late, are really changing the ideas here. And it looks like, you know, if we’re true to the numbers here, we’re going to follow those numbers to the letter of the law,”

So he says the U.S. refiners are going to need to not only use soybean oil, but probably import oils from other parts of the world.

“And on cue, we’re getting stories about China’s used cooking oil making its way to the U.S. West Coast here again,” he adds.

November Soybeans Near Contract Highs
November soybeans, despite 3.5 million or more additional acres expected this year, got within a penny of contract highs on Wednesday.

Will that market get over that technical barrier?

Chatterton says, “I think it’s a little bit more of a measure of approach here as we approach that level and kind of try and get on top of it. And where can we go? But, you know, the the outside markets or the oil markets are really floating all boats here. You know, so we’ll see how high that they can take us. In the meantime, like I said, the demand story has not changed. And, you know, we’re going to need those bean acres going forward here in the U.S. if we’re going to hold this kind of a domestic crush pace.”

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, But For How Long?
The FOMC meeting wrapped up Wednesday and the Fed left rates unchanged which was no surprise.

However, with high energy prices driving inflation when is the Fed going to have to change its course of action here?

Chatterton says it is a very interesting scenario.

“You’ve got, you know, Warsh coming in as the new Fed chair. It’s a little bit unclear right now as to whether the current Fed chair is going to step aside or whether he’s going to, you know, run out his term here into the new year. And so depending on how that plays, if you get a new Fed chairman who has, I won’t say assured President Trump that he’s going to cut rates, but who has openly stated that he felt rates were too high. It can be very hard for him, I think, to initially raise rates in a situation where even if inflation is telling him to do so. So got a little bit of a cat and mouse game, I think, there going on,” he explains.

Still he thinks the market is better rates will go no where.

Live Cattle Make Record Highs on Record Cash
Feeder cattle futures set back on Wednesday, but nearby live cattle futures ended higher and made record highs.

This was on the heels of record cash trade which ranged from $250 to $258 live and $392 to $400 dressed.

Packers had to pay from $4 to $14 more for cattle this week to procure inventory so their margins are in the red.

But is the market looking anywhere close to a top?

you know, are the packers starting to bleed enough here that we’re going to roll this thing over

Chatterton says, “In reality, they were very aggressive buyers early in the week here, yesterday and today, midweek, you know, coming after cattle tells me that they’re short bought here and that they need the product. And even with margins getting worse, we’ve got them somewhere around a negative $140 a head on the spot marketplace. They’re continuing to come after cattle.”

He thinks cutout values will need to go higher to help balance out those negative margins.

“But for right now, you know, it’s really hard to call, you know, how high is high in this marketplace. They continue to bid up for cattle and show a need for them. So definitely the producers and the feeders have the upper hand here in the short term,” he adds.

Beef Demand Not Slowing
Even at these high prices it doesn’t seem like consumer demand is faltering.

“We’ve talked about record retail values, record wholesale values, the durability of the U.S. consumer and the demand base that’s going on there. So far, we continue to see that we’ve got the choice in the select basically neck and neck here in terms of, you know, not a premium for that choice or the select. I think that’s one thing. These grading rates with. you know more prime more choice you know coming out of the animal or out of the carcass here really kind of changing the old rules on that in real time,” he states.
and

Can Feeders Retest the Highs?
Feeder cattle set back on Wednesday with higher corn prices a limiting factor but Chatterton thinks there is a possibility to retest the highs.

“With the fund interest coming into the marketplace it looks like that door may be open. We had Florida announcing that they’re going to you know restrict cattle coming from the Texas border counties and require an inspection before they come into the state. I think that probably is a sign or can be at least interpreted as a sign that the Texas border opening or the U.S. Mexico border opening is nowhere close, that it’s still pretty far down the road and some things to be worked out there. So feeders to me still well supported,” he explains.

Hogs Higher on Technical Buying
Lean hog futures had a strong day with triple digit gains and June closed above the 20-day moving average.

He thinks the market saw some technical buying.

“Hogs have been, in a sideways pattern here, a little bit beat up. We’ve had that fund position get paired back a little bit. And then all of a sudden, you know, yesterday we got into that gap that was left two Fridays ago on the June chart. We weren’t able to kind of come out the other side yesterday, but we did that today. I think it’s a very positive technical sign with these funds a little bit, a little bit more dry powder than maybe what they’ve had here of late,” he says

News Highs Hit in Dec Corn, HRW Wheat and Live Cattle Wednesday

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 15:30:25 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were mostly higher early Wedneday.

Wheat Making More New Highs
Wheat futures were leading the gains again with new contract highs in hard red winter and hard red spring wheat contracts, which was pulling up soft red winter wheat.

Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says wheat continues to add weather premium with the drought conditions hitting the HRW production areas and deteriorating crop conditions.

The extended forecast has some rain in the works but totals from past forecasts have been disappointing and may be too late in some cases.

Knight says the wheat market is also adding risk premium tied to the prolonged Iran war and crude oil prices going back above $100 with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.

This is also adding to the fertilizer crunch and record price push that is driving global production concerns.

How Much Higher Will Wheat Prices Rally?
Knight says it’s tough to tell how high wheat prices may run.

“You know, when a market makes new highs in any of these markets, it’s difficult to try to pick a top and dangerous to try to pick a top, by the way. So we’ll just continue to see how that plays out. But yeah, it’s definitely leading the charge higher,” he says.

The two year highs in hard red winter wheat is also pulling soft red winter wheat along for the ride even though that crop is not seeing the same production concerns.

Knight says funds are buying HRW and SRW wheat just the same.

Corn and Wheat Add Fertilizer Premium
Both wheat and corn are also pricing in the higher fertilizer prices and the supply issues tied to the Iran war that may lead to lower acres and yields.

Knight explains, “Fertilizer prices are a real concern for wheat and corn, especially. You know, it still has me second guessing some of the acreage numbers that we’re dealing with on the corn side. Guys are going to, you know, I’ve talked to too many guys that just don’t want to chase those prices and they’re getting worse. I mean, I think we’re up $5 today in crude oil. So, yes, the Iran thing seems like it’s going to just continue.” he says.

Dec Corn Hits New Contract Highs
December corn made new contract highs on Tuesday night just shy of the $5 mark but is it just a matter of time before that level is cleared?

Knight says, “That’s a great question. There are so many orders around $5. I would encourage farmers to take advantage of these price levels. Like you said, we just put in a new high by, I think it was only a penny or so, or maybe even less than that. But take advantage of these price levels to get some grain marketed. Keep in mind what we did last year. I mean, I know we kept planting more corn, but markets kind of fell apart this time of year. Not to say that that’s going to happen anytime soon, but yeah. I think these are price levels that are profitable for guys.
And, yeah, I would absolutely get some marketing up here.”

Farmers Switching Out of Corn?
Farmer’s Keeper did a survey of 4,000 farmers and found that around 20% had decided to cut corn acres since the Middle East war drove up fertilizer prices.

Around 3.7% were going to plant more acres but the USDA Report will have the final vote.

“You know, I’m going to lean that when it’s all said and done on June 30th acreage report that we’re going to probably plant a little bit less corn than than even the planting intentions report said,” he adds.

Funds Buying Corn
All of those factors have funds back buying in the corn market and re-adding to their long position he says.

“I mean, look, the thought process is that, you know, beans are going to get the majority of those acres and you know funds are funds are long a 200,000 contracts of beans and they’re long 200,000 contracts of corn. Now they have just like you mentioned they have just gotten back into buying a little bit more corn as of as of late. So soybeans have been the laggard,” he explains.

Plus, corn has a record demand story and is slowing chewing through last year’s record crop.

“But you know we’re planting we’re likely to plant probably four million less acres less acres and demand remains really strong on the corn,” he adds.

Planting Slowed by Rain
Planting process nationally on corn was at 25% and soybeans were at a record 23% this week but that is likely to change with the heavy rain system that moved through the last few days.

“I was really surprised we were as far ahead as we are. Of course, I’m in Missouri here, and looking out my back door, we’ve caught every rain
possible. Iowa’s kind of in the same boat. But it was impressive to see, you know, we’ve got a quarter of the crop planted. I’m with you. I would think that we’re 11 points ahead on beans and six points ahead of the five-year average on corn. And I would expect that we’re going to probably look more like the five-year average or maybe even under it come this next week because with the cold, wet rains not much is getting done this week,” he states.

Soybeans Rally with Corn and Wheat
Soybeans were higher on Wednesday in tandem with corn, wheat and bean oil.

Despite the talk of more acres of soybeans the market has been held up by bean oil rallying to catch crude oil and higher diesel fuel prices.

However, the market is also holding China premium according to Knight.

“You know, I think there’s China premium and the Iranian thing is keeping bean oil extremely high. I am most worried about soybean prices long term and encouraging my farmers to really take advantage of these prices. Trump is is expected to go to China May 14 and 15 to get a deal signed. That meeting got kicked down the road once already. I’d give it a 50% chance of probably getting kicked down the road further. And I don’t think the bean market’s going to like that,” he says.

So he feels like prices are elevated.

“Trump has said multiple times in the last six months to a year, soybean farmers are really going to love me. And so there’s that anticipation that some great deal is going to get struck and signed with China. But it feels like to me that a lot of that’s already built into the soybean market. And so that coupled with my anticipation of more acres on the June 30th report has me really fearful for soybeans. So I would really encourage farmers to get more heavily sold, especially on the soybean side, and maybe keep some more risk open on the corn side.”

Soybeans Still Sideways
Even with all of those factors at work soybeans have remained sideways for weeks, so what will it take to break out of that range?

Knight says, “Some global event, weather-related event here in the U.S.”

Plus, if wheat and corn continue to rally he thinks they could lift soybeans.

EU Rejects Argentina Meal
The EU also rejected some cargoes of soybean meal this week as well due to non-approved GMO traits being detected and Knight says if that becomes a bigger issue it could push some business over to the U.S.

Knight says, “I’ve heard that it’s been happening quite a bit as of late. They’re throwing warning signs that could absolutely lead to to more U.S.
business. Obviously, we’ve had more crush facilities and crush capacity come online in the last couple of years. And the biggest worry has been, OK, we’re using more beans here are we going to fill up with meal? You know, what are we going to do with all the meal? And so that is obviously a positive for the U.S.:

Cattle Futures and Cash Hit Records
Live cattle futures were making record highs for a second day push by record cash trade on Tuesday.

Sales ran from $250 up to $256 late Tuesday and even some $257 was reported on Wednesday morning.

“The last six months every time we talk, it seems like we’ve just put in new highs. And I don’t know where it stops. It’d be great to be a cattle guy. Fundamentals are very strong. We’re getting into the grilling season. I don’t see prices declining anytime soon.” he adds.

Is $5 Corn a Reality as Wheat Pushes Above $7? Why Soybeans Didn't Follow Tuesday

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 21:26:11 GMT

Corn, wheat and cattle were higher Tuesday, soybeans and wheat ended lower.

Wheat Makes New Highs
Wheat futures were up 25 to 30 cents and the hard red winter and hard red spring wheat both hit new contract highs, with soft red winter wheat also hitting new highs for the move.

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says the wheat market is adding risk premium tied to weather and global production and geopolitical concerns.

“I mean, most of it is weather because we’re looking at the dry conditions, rain being pulled out of the forecast. That really helped to push the market today. The fact that we continue to see the Strait of Hormuz closed and the idea that we could get some exports or some U.S. wheat moved into that region in the Middle East, continuing to help add some support,” he explains.

There are also concerns about tight fertilizer supplies globally.

“Lots of countries talking about cutting back on production or on acres because of the high cost of fertilizer and the tight supplies are hard to get. So I think all of that’s coming in to help push the wheat market,” he says.

Wheat Conditions Deteriorate
Hard red winter wheat ratings were steady at 30% good to excellent on Monday but the poor to very poor rating was up 2% which also gave the market a boost.

“The fact that we did see the increase in the poor to very poor, I think that did help push the wheat here. Then the weather forecast coming in later, taking the rain out or pulling some of that rain event out, added to it towards the end of the session,” he says.

Spring Wheat Planting Delays
Spring what planting delays are also supportive with 19% of the crop planted compared to the 22% five year average.’

He says, “You look up here in spring wheat country, in North Dakota we did get a little bit of progress done here this last week, but rain and cold
temperatures are in the forecast now. This week doesn’t look like we’re going to see a lot of activity taking place as a lot of the areas are just a little too wet and we’re not getting the heat to dry out the soil. So we’re going to see another week of poor progress as far as planting is concerned.”

How High Will Wheat Prices Rally?
So after the chart breakout how high will wheat prices rally?

He says, “I think as long as we continue to have this little bit of a problem and until we can get, you know, up in the spring wheat country and get planters rolling, I think we could see another 35 to possibly 75 cents push out of this. You know, we also see that, you know, USDA, we’re at USDA’s export projections. So exports are going to have to increase in the next report, which that’ll add a little bit of friendliness to it as well.”

Corn Follows Wheat Adds Risk Premium
Martinson says corn was also higher and made new highs for the move following the wheat complex but it was also adding risk premium.

“I mean, you know, the geopolitical, because of the straight staying closed, the fertilizer not getting to the U.S., you know, there’s still land changing hands and a lot of the new land that, you know, the producer doesn’t have fertilizer booked for isn’t going to go to corn. So we’re
looking at less corn acres being planted. There’s talk of even guys trying to tighten up their supplier, you know, spread it over more acres. It looks like corn acres will see a little suffer for that,” he explains.

He says this week’s weather also looks like it is going to slow down planting in the Corn Belt.

“And I think that added a little bit of support as well.”

How Far Will Corn Acres Fall?
The corn market is anticipating acres and production to fall due to the fertilizer crunch and higher prices, plus weather.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see, you know, I’ve been expecting corn to be closer to the 93 million acre level. So I expect we could lose close to a million acres of corn.”

Will Dec Corn Hit $5?
December corn is closing in on the March contract highs at $4.98 1/2 but can it make it through that chart area and take out $5.

Martinson is optimistic, “I think we can. I mean, we got plentiful stocks and this could be more of a story for corn later in the season once we see where acres fall and stuff. But I do think that we could get up into a mid $5 area to, you know. maybe encourage producers to plant a little bit more corn than what they were thinking of, try to spend a little bit more on that fertilizer. So I do think we will see this market get above $5.”

Soybeans Fall
Soybeans were not able to extend Monday’s gains or follow higher corn and wheat.

It is a combination of the fear of more acres of soybeans

“I think they’re looking at more acres. And then, you know, we can kind of see that in the rapid planting progress for soybeans. I mean, that’s really been stellar so far this year. And I think that’s adding to the put a little bit of pressure on. I do think there’s a little geopolitical there because not everybody’s convinced that we’re going to see a U.S.-China summit take place here in two weeks.”

The market also saw profit taking after running up to the top side of the trading range it has been in for weeks.

“I mean, yeah, it’s been an extremely tight sideways trend in the soybean market. I do think we have an ability to get above it, but it’s going to take China and the U.S. having that summit meeting, and it’s going to take China saying they’re going to buy some more soybeans from the U.S.” adds Martinson.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
There is a concern for the market tied to the idea that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the conflict with Iran continues it could blow up the mid-May meeting and its outcome according to Martinson.

“Iran and China are friends and a lot of China’s energy comes from Iran. So the fact that the Strait stays closed and we’re putting a blockade on any oil vessels, crude oil vessels coming out of Iran, that is causing some concerns and raising a little bit of tensions with China.”

$100 Crude Oil Supports Bean Oil
On the flip side, the $100 crude oil market is supporting the bean oil rally.

Martinson says, “It is helping bean oil, and it is encouraging a little bit more of our, maybe our biofuels industry to continue to expand.”

Meal Reacts to EU Canceling Argentine Soybean Meal
The soybean meal market was higher on Monday on the news that Argentina soybean meal was rejected by the European Union due to the detection of an unapproved GMO trait.

So will the U.S. see any sales as a result?

“I think we will get some, but I think the market was disappointed. We didn’t see anything sooner than, you know, of course, it was tough to get, you know, something right away. But I think the market set back a little today off of the concerns that we didn’t see any repurchasing
from the European Union. But I do think we will be able to get into that market and sell a little bit more, especially if this GMO trait continues to be showing up in the Argentina beans,” he says.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs Again
Live cattle futures soared again on Tuesday and nearby contracts made record highs.

It was a combination of technical buying but also cash bids from packers at $250, which is higher than last week and those bids were being offered already on a Tuesday.

Martinson says that pushed the futures, “I mean, you know, right now cash is, I mean, cash has been king for quite a while and that’s what’s been continuing to drive both the live cattle and the feeder cattle market. You know, supplies continue to be tight. We’re not seeing that change any and it’s unlikely we’re going to see any border opening because of the large increase in cases of screw worm up in Mexico. So I do think that, you know, cash continues to be the king and that continues to what’s main driver of this market.”

Feeder Cattle Also Testing Highs
The feeder cattle futures were also testing the highs.

Martinson says the cash feeder market has been strong on tight supplies, “I mean, a lot of that crop has been moved now so that supplies are going to continue to tighten up. That, I think, will keep that price a little bit strong. It’s going to be interesting to see where all this settles out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this market continue to hold until the fall calves start coming in.”

And drought in cattle areas is going to result in more cattle coming to market early because they have no grass.

“You’re starting to see those western regions, you know, rain being pulled out of the forecast. Getting a little tougher for them to get rain. And they’re seeing the wildfires that we saw earlier, especially in Nebraska earlier this spring. So there is a lot of concern about being able to hold the cattle,” he adds.

Corn, Wheat Make Near Term Highs on Global Crop Concerns: Soybeans See Profit Taking

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 16:11:19 GMT

Corn and wheat were higher early Tuesday with the soybean complex lower. Cattle continued higher with hogs lower.

Wheat Leads Gains
Wheat futures were higher again on Tuesday morning with hard red winter wheat taking the lead on drought and not only U.S. but global production concerns.

Wheat was making new highs for the move but can the market get above the March highs?

Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says he thinks it is possible the market will test those levels.

Global Wheat Production Concerns
“And if you look at the wheat market for like a month the view we are really kind of breaking out. We have been in this recent and ongoing rally and I think a big part of that just has to do with what seedings are going to look like for winter crops in the Southern hemisphere as those decisions are being made right now and what the crop’s going to look like in 2027,” he explains.

World demand for wheat has been really robust according to Akre and while the U.S. has played a smaller role in the export market the global market is still expecting a significant production drop.

“Maybe not so much this year. In the U.S., we’re seeing a big drop in production this year, and that’s been somewhat fueling the recent rally
with the poor conditions. But we’re looking at 2027. And the drop in production, I mean, The Strait of Hormuz being closed and the urea supplies being cut off from the world, a third of the world’s urea, it’s going to have long lasting implications. And now we’ve got Ukraine attacking Russian fertilizer production infrastructure and Russian energy infrastructure. And Russia is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of wheat,” he adds.

So he thinks the market is looking ahead and anticipating stockpiling.

“China produces a lot of wheat, and they’ve been basically locking down their fertilizer exports, and they’ve been trying to get as much as they can right now. But they typically don’t import a ton of wheat, but next year, you know, they might have to if they can’t get their production up,” he says.

HRW Wheat Sees Conditions Decline
While the crop rating was unchanged Monday showing 30% of the winter wheat in good to excellent condition the poor to very poor rating went up 2% to 35%.

There is rain in the forecast but until it materializes the market marches higher.

“We’re supposed to be getting some rain here soon, but those recent forecasts for rain haven’t really panned out. And the conditions are very poor. It’s going to be really hard for that crop to rebound. They say that wheat has nine lives. We’re testing that this year. It’s going to be hard to
see those conditions bounce,” hea adds.

Corn Makes For the Move Highs
Corn futures are making one month and new highs for the move on spillover from the wheat market but also acreage and fertilizer concerns according to Akre.

“Yeah, it’s a combination of it all. I think there’s a bullish case standalone for corn, similar to wheat with the production concerns. There’s more of a production concern in the U.S. this year. We are going to see a drop in acres, and we’re probably going to see a further drop than what USDA anticipated in their March prospective plantings report. Where that final number ends up, it’s really hard to say. There’s been some surveys out, and some guys are actually increasing acres, a lot of those guys being Midwest guys that are able to secure supplies, while other areas, they’re seeing a pretty substantial drop in acres as they’re either not wanting to pay up for supplies or supplies are kind of unavailable.”

He says last week a ship coming to New Orleans carrying urea was diverted to India as they put out a tender for 2.5 million metric tons of urea. Right now, these fertilizer distributors are going to be shipping to the highest bidder.

He says fortunately for the U.S., a lot of those supplies are already in place. “The prices here aren’t as bad as they are on the world market, but if it makes sense for these distributors to put that area back on a ship and ship it across the ocean, they’re going to do that. So it’s a matter of locking up as much of those supplies as we can.”

So he sees decreased rates of application and lower yields.

“I think we’re going to be closer to 180 than 186.5 bu per acre. But, you know, time will tell in that regard and weather is going to play a huge role in that. But if we’re not putting a lot of nitrogen on this crop, it’s just really hard to imagine we push up above 180 very much at all. And then a couple of that with the drop in acres, we’ll see a big drop in production,” he states.

Dec Corn Clear $5?
Can December corn get above the March high and clear $5?

Akre thinks so. “This war has shown no signs of slowing down, and the bullish case for corn is still there. Domestic use has been really strong. E15 has been getting a lot more attention. Exports have not really slowed down at all, and they’re looking good for the next crop year as well. And before long, we’re going to be getting into trading a summer market.”

He also thinks the funds are buying in anticipation of the drop in production and when priced dip the export demand picks up.

“That’s a positive sign and it shows that importers are just looking for chances to buy more so this the probability of all that slowing down isn’t very high,” he says.

Brazil is starting to ship more of their corn to other sources and Iran is historically their top corn buyer.

“Where that corn is going to go well they’ve found alternative destinations for the crop they’re also bumping up their ethanol use their crush use for corn, and that’s helping offset some of that increase in production that they’re seeing this year as well.”

Soybeans See Profit Taking or Fast Planting Pace?
Soybeans are correcting with soy products and seeing profit taking after yesterday’s rally.

“We’re up into the top end of the trading range that has lasted a month and a half. I think a lot of today’s selling can be chalked up to some technical selling pressure,” he says.

He says a close above $12 in July soybeans would confirm a bottom but if it closes below $11.75 a retest of $11.70 or lower is possible and would be a bearish technical signal.

However, while the corn market ignored the fast planting pace at 25% compared to the 19% average, soybeans are digesting a record planting pace of 23% versus 12% normally.

“Yes, we’ve been seeing record planting paces the past few years, and it’s shown that the earlier we can get beans in, the better the yields are going to be, and producers have really taken that in stride. They’ve been really hammering the bean planting early in the year and I think we’re going to be seeing that year after year the soybeans are able to also just sit in the ground longer,” he says.

Meal Eases After EU Rejects Argentine Meal
Soybean meal is also lower on Tuesday seeing a correction after the rally Monday tied to the EU rejecting three cargoes of soybean meal from Argentina as an unapproved GMO variety was detected.

Akre says if the U.S. was able to export more meal to the EU or into China that could be a good opportunity and help offset some of the bigger U.S. supplies.

Crush Continues Record
Akre says crush has been running at record rates and meal supplies had been building but the good news is export demand is strong and supporting the meal and bean oil market.

Bean oil stocks had also been building for several months but the most recent crush report also shows that has slowed.

“We saw a build up in stocks month over month for six, seven months in a row. And since then, we’ve been actually bringing stocks down. And that’s been a really positive sign. It helps keep those crushers motivated to continue crushing soybeans. And margins continue to be very good for the crush side of things. So I don’t think they’ll be slowing down anytime soon as production has increased, use has increased as well, both domestically and we’ve been exporting more as well.”

Crush Makes Up for China
With crush margins running over $3 a bushel that is supporting strong demand for soybeans and Akre says it is coming at a great time.

Crush is making up for some of the lost export business to China for 2025-26.

Akre doesn’t think China will buy 25 MMT of new crop soybeans and is doubtful about the extra 8 MMT of old crop business.

“China’s been slow to do some additional purchases. And even if we look at all the purchases by unknown destinations, you add that on top of the current China total. It doesn’t stack up. And we’ve been waiting for this meeting between Trump and Xi as he’s going there in May. And
frankly, there’s just not all that much time in the marketing year for sales to happen,” he says.

Akre says soybean exports saw a similar pace in 2018 to China.

“Which I would call a positive sign. It shows that there could be some room for growth on the export side. And we’ve seen how fast China can come into the market and just buy a bunch of cargos and really kind of shift things around. But as time goes on, I’ve just grown a little bit more pessimistic on that side,” he adds.

Cattle Recovering
Cattle futures continued to recover on Tuesday off the reversal scored last Thursday. So will the market retest the highs?

Akre is hopeful, “Yeah, I think we’ll at least retest those in the June contract highs at $252. I think it’s going to be really hard to push above that
mark until we get some participation from the cash market. So last couple of weeks, cash market has just been following futures and that broke last week.”

Last week cash averaged aroudn $246 but he thinks the big jump in futures prices will support a higher cash market.

“If we’re able to get cash trade about $250, I would think that vwe’d be able to push to some fresh contract highs in fats. But I think that $252 mark’s going to be really stiff overhead resistance until we get some cash trade pushing up near $250.”

Border Reopening
The cattle market has also seen recovery as the fears about the border reopening to Mexican cattle has subsided.

However, Akre thinks the market is becoming more immune to headlines from war to New World Screwworm and the like.

“It’s really narrowed down to maybe a session or 2 based on some of these. I think it’s become more of a show me market and maybe once the border reopens, we will see. Price reflect it, but we’ve been talking for months. We thought that the border is gonna be open reopened in January and here we are, we’re nearing May and it’s still just talk,” he adds.

Grain and Livestock Rally With Risk On Buying, Weather Concerns

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 21:34:50 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended higher on Monday.

Risk on Buying
The grain and livestock futures saw commodity wide speculative buying to start the week according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.

The markets had a risk on tone due to the lack of resolution to the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz but weather also drove the market.

“And when you really don’t hear bullish stories to drive the market, it probably is more just fund direction. And the funds have been buying everything recently, right? You know, a little bit of wheat even. They finally bought corn back again after getting out of a lot of their longs earlier. I think the weak longs are out. They’re back in buying. Even soybeans today, really good buying, which was surprising seeing how long they already are in that soybean complex.”

Funds Length in Soybean Complex a Concern?
When you add up the fund long position in the soybean complex it is already pushing over 470,000 contracts.

So do the funds keep pushing the long side of the soybean complex?

Bosse says, “I guess today the answer to that is yes, they will. That’s surprising though to me because that’s like the fifth largest combined they’ve ever been. We combine all of them, but you look today, all of them were up. Soybean meal was up, soybean oil was up. Usually you see those contradict each other a little bit, right, and spreads too. We’re entering kind of a different era in soybeans where crush and soybean oil is the strongest demand. It used to be meal was the biggest demand. Now meal is kind of the byproduct we kind of have to get rid of. And that’ll probably be through our export market.”

He says he’s not as bearish soybeans as he once was.

“I still think export demand is going to have to get trimmed down a little bit by USDA, but not the 100 to 150 million bushels I was threatening before,” Bosse adds.

Frost in Argentina
On Monday meal was the leader on short covering but also due to possible frost or freeze damage to the soybean crop in Argentina as temperatures dipped Monday morning.

Bosse says, “Remember, Argentina is still the lead exporter in soybean meal throughout the world, so if you did hurt that crop at all, it’s soybean meal that should react first here. Now, I really question how much damage, but it’s one of those, we’re the futures market, we’re going to put the premium first, and then they’ll ask those questions about how much production was really damaged. The reason I’m saying that is they’re harvesting some, and most U.S. producers know, well, if you’re harvesting frost, isn’t going to really hurt the beans. But of course, those are big countries in South America, North to South. So there’s probably some late maturing soybeans that it could have been dinged for sure,” he explains.

New Crop Soybean Upside Potential?
With an additional 3.5 million more acres of soybeans expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2026 if the U.S. does not get China in buying the 25 million metric tons of new crop soybean promised the ending stocks figure could quickly balloon.

Bosse thinks there will be more acres added to USDA’s estimate in the Prospective Plantings Report and China is still less than certain.

“I really question the whole China buying, even the 25 MMT for new crop. It’s just world stocks are record high and prices are cheaper than U.S. I think Argentina is like $1.20 cheaper than us. Brazil’s like 60 cents cheaper than us. So, it just it doesn’t really make a lot of economic sense for them to come and buy from us. I mean I get there’s the whole lot of political reasons but that can only go so far,” he adds.

So, he is looking at put options to hedge new crop soybeans.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn futures made new highs for the move on Monday following wheat and soybeans but Bosse thinks the market has its own story.

“You know, the war in Iran, even though I am really tired of reporting about it in the Trump posts back and forth, it’s still ongoing. The Strait is
still closed for the most part. That means higher fertilizer, higher fuel prices for the world. To me, that’s a big story that corn should have rallied. quite a bit more than this for the last month and we just haven’t you know not to mention the whole you know will we get all the acres planted,” he says.

States like North Dakota look cold and wet in the 8-14 day forecast and they aren’t alone.

“I wouldn’t say we’re late or delayed planting. I don’t think we have to rally on that just yet but it’s starting to raise my eyebrows a little bit they’re like oh we could have an issue here. So, I think corn has its own story and should continue to rally higher,” he says.

New Crop Corn Adding Input Premium?
New crop or December corn is closing in on the March high of $4.98 1/2 and it could be putting in some input premium according to Bosse.

“I mean, that’s where the supply could change a lot in new crop, right? World stocks are actually like at a seven or eight year low. Our export demand is phenomenal. So if we decrease acres a little bit or we don’t use as much fertilizer as we should, a new crop situation could be quite tight, maybe like a 1.6 to 1.7 for an ending stock. Well, that’s fairly bullish and this market should rally,” he explains.

However, he says some times the market just sees bull spreading. “Because people just want to buy the old crop bushels instead of even worrying about the new crop supply. But you’re right, it’s the new crop that should put a premium in, but I doubt we’ll see it.”

Lack of Farmer Selling
Meanwhile, July corn did see a chart breakout and that could be due to the lack of farmer selling because of farmers focusing on planting.

“Absolutely, 100%. Nobody wants to go fire up a truck and haul any grain in right now. Everyone’s trying to get the crop planted. June is more the month where, okay, let’s empty bins out and that. So no, farmer selling has dried up. Sadly, I can see nationwide the base is improving. It really isn’t up here for us in the Northern Plains. We’re still at wide basis up here. But like you said, that’s kind of part of having that big old crop and a lot of farmer supply is still sitting out there,” he says.

Wheat Makes Fresh Highs
The wheat market also made more new highs for the move adding weather premium, especially with the drought in the Southern Plains.

How much more weather premium does the market need to add?

Bosse says, “I could actually see it going up quite a bit more. I could see KC wheat obviously getting to $7.00 and I could see it really on a chart a continuous chart banner going to $7.50 but that’s if it doesn’t rain.”

If it does rain he thinks the market will start trying to price in a lower yield number.

“And if you start talking to national wheat yield below 42 bushels an acre, well, it gets pretty tight in the U.S. Now, sadly, Michelle, I think we could just ration export demand and just bring it all back later. But it’s helping to push like Minneapolis wheat higher, which is the wheat that’s grown in my area up here. And I like that. I’m looking at it as an opportunity to start getting hedges in place,” he says.

Spring Wheat Planting Delays
The spring wheat market is concerned about getting all of the acres planted and already started with historically low acres to begin with.

“Right, we don’t have a lot of wiggle room there. We didn’t start up with high acres and we can trim some off. It sounds like from the west of me, like closer to the river, we’ve gotten a lot of the spring wheat in. Some of it even coming up, looking nice. But North Dakota, from the clients I talked to up there, not a lot of activity yet. It’s just been very damp soils. They just haven’t gotten going. But I think we’ll see that in the crop progress report this afternoon. And so, you know, the premium’s probably justified for now,” he states.

Cattle Up a Third Day
Cattle futures were up for a third day and are still recovering off the lows scored last Thursday.

Bosse says part of the reason is the market is not as concerned about the border reopening to Mexican cattle imports after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona.

“And, you know, some guys are trying to link it back to more screw worm cases being found in Mexico. You know, maybe they’re just not going to open the border now for a while. I had always heard things that the border wasn’t going to be open even until July anyway. And at that point, it was going to be just small stages from west to east. So to me, it shouldn’t affect things like June fat cattle or nearby feeders but you know the market takes that news and runs with it,” he explains.

With that meeting not happening speculation continues to run high on when the border will reopen but for now the market looks stronger.

“This week cash could be higher, boxes are higher, we got some big holidays coming up for beef demand. I’m excited about the market for this week at least,” he says.

Market Bounces Technically
Plus the market also held technically where it needed to.

“We were getting to some little retracement levels that I was watching fairly close. And when this market sells off, I ask myself over time, is this it? Are we done? Are we going to crash back now? But for the umpteenth time in a row now, we were bouncing off support. We corrected the overbought position. Now the question is, can we go back and test the contract highs or even make new contract highs? I guess we’ll have to see here,” he states.

He is also concerned about what happens if screw worm gets to the U.S.

“I’m still worried about it, especially as the temps get warm. It’s going to come across in something, a deer, a raccoon, something it’s going to come across on,” he says.

Hogs Bottoming?
Lean hogs were mostly higher on Monday after higher weekly closes. So is the market trying to bottom?

Bosse thinks technically the market is trying to hold plus the seasonal low usually hit around this time.

“Demand should be stronger here this next month. And, you know, there’s still always these questions about the U.S. production. Sounds like there’s been a lot of disease pressure. It’s really hard to get confirmation on that now anymore, but I’ve heard some of that. Now, don’t
look for China to come and buy any of our pork, though. As far as global supplies, it’s very large and we’re higher priced than the rest of the world,” he adds.

Cattle Bottoming as Border/Strike Talk Fear Eases and Cash Ideas Improve

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:29:34 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains are all higher early Monday.

Cattle Extend Gains a Third Day
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher on Monday for a third day.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday.

Border Fears Subside
Part of the bounce also came as fears subsided regarding a possible reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

The fear started already on April 17 when USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Texas for the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility to help combat New World screwworm (NWS).

However, Rollins was also scheduled for a trip to Arizona on Friday, April 24 which renewed fears of an announcement.

So, Kooima says when Rollins said Thursday she was canceling the trip the market breathed a sigh of relief.

“She canceled her trip due to biosecurity reasons as you’ve got a case that’s supposedly was within 60 miles of the Texas border even though this port that she was going to go to out there by Douglas is almost 800 miles away from there,” he explains.

Cash Market Firms With Board
Following the recovery in the futures the feedlots started to pass on packer bids of $246 being offered for fed cash cattle.

Kooima says there was some trade at $246 and $386 dressed but by Friday some feeders in the North were passing on $248 as feedlots regained leverage.

“I certainly have a little more optimism this week on a Monday than I did last week for cash. I think there’s a real shot we can get back to $250. We shall see. But the show list up here, very small. And we’re in that kind of that in-between time, Michelle, where the yearlings are largely gone. We’re trying to push these calves to get fat and the weather’s been great. So some of them are pretty close, but you know, this holding action type of a deal that we’ve had for a while, I think this holding action rally here is going to continue until it doesn’t,” he says.

He thinks producers will be slow to sell when it costs $1 to put gain on and so he thinks supplies will be tight for the next 30 to 45 days.

Fear of Potential Fort Morgan Plant Strike Ease
Early last Thursday, the market also sold off on fear that workers at the Cargill beef plant at Fort Morgan, Colorado, were going to walk out. Kooima says the plant did not slaughter Thursday, Friday or Monday while negotiations were taking place.

“Supposedly they were going to return to, or they were going to start negotiations this week. What I do know is that it sounds like this is not a union backed strike, that this is what they would call a wildcat strike, which people are kind of voluntary. I say, Hey, we’re leaving, you know, blah, blah, blah. I’m not certain as to what. their demands exactly are what the beef is or what they’re trying to what they’re trying to accomplish other than I suppose the obvious, more pay less work,” he adds.

The plant has a capacity of 4,700 but is currently slaughtering only around 4,000 currently. Still he says the market has faded the news like it isn’t that concerned.

“It might affect that cash market, maybe that Western Nebraska, Colorado market, maybe more than anything else. But I’ll keep you posted. At this point, it’s kind of day to day. And I think the market would tell you that they don’t expect it’s going to last long. Otherwise, I think we’d be trading worse,” he says.

Plus, shackle space is at a surplus to available cattle right now softening the blow.

However, he says if boxed beef prices don’t improve soon to help get packer margins back in the black it could lead to additional plant closures.

“But unless this box beef catches here somebody’s going to have to drop again. I mean, the packer, that side of the industry is not just going to sit there and merrily lose $200 a head every day without closing another place or severely cutting this kill back.”

Funds Stay Long Cattle?
The latest Commitment of Traders Report indicated funds are still long around 135,000 futures and option positions and have exited about 1,800 positions as of last Tuesday.

So is there a fear that the commodity fund traders are going to continue to liquidate just because the market already hit the record highs?

He says, “You bet there’s a fear, at least for some of us, for me. That would be the gorilla in the room here. The fundamentals, really good.

June cattle, probably. a little higher priced normally than what they would be basis wise I think last year we were like $8 or $10 under cash. So if you get $248 and the basis was like last year you could have June cattle at $240 or $238. It’s not it’s at $247 okay with the last cash the best of the last cash at $248. Sp, is it that the cash is too low or are the futures too high?”

Hogs Bounce or Bottom?
Lean hog futures were higher Monday and had a higher weekly close last week.

So is the market putting in a bottom and how much upside is there?

Kooima says, “Hog charts have a nice looking formation, you know, had that big outside day down where it looked like they were in a wreck on Thursday, came back gap higher last week and just barely by the skin of our teeth, we’ve been holding that gap, which is good. So I would like to get us above $103.70, above the 20-day to make me feel just a bit better about it.”

He says feeder pigs are running nearly $140 a head, which is a function of tight supply creaated by another round of big-time disease problems in some of the farrowing units in the North,” he explains that has him a bit friendly.

Grains Rally, Corn Makes Fresh Highs
Grains were higher early Monday with old crop corn making fresh highs for the move.

Corn has received some help from the weather rally in wheat but may be trading its own weather concerns with heavy rains over the weekend in some key production areas of the Midwest.

“And get used to it. This is what you and I will be talking about for the next three months, right? Whether it did or if it didn’t, or did it rain where it’s supposed to.”

However, he is not overly bullish due to the large carryout and poor basis in the Northwestern Corn Belt.

“So we’re right at halfway back on the July corn on this last move so that we’re going to learn a little bit about the market right here, I’d love to see the basis tighten and it usually is tightest when guys are out in the field worried about planting corn they’re not sitting by their grain bin loading corn,” he says.

Soybeans have been sideways for the last six weeks says Kooima, and he thinks the crude oil and bean oil story is about running its course too.

“I don’t know how far you can stretch that rubber band. So a long way to go here. We got a long growing season and we’ll see once,” he adds.

Corn and Wheat Higher for the Week Trading Weather: Cattle Correct

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 21:31:30 GMT

Grains closed mixed Friday with cattle higher.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking Friday But Higher Week
Wheat futures were lower on Friday on profit taking ahead of the weekend and with rain in the extended forecast for the Southern Plains.

Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says this follows a chart breakout on Thursday.

“We broke out on Thursday at the $6.60 area of July Kansas City. We had proved to be very heavy resistance. And once we got through that, I mean, wheat shot up, ended up closing 28 to 30 cents higher. It did pull back here today on Friday. You know, got a little moisture coming over the weekend. I don’t know how good it will be. Those areas that are supposed to get some forecasted rains and will probably get some, but they’re pretty dry,” he says.

He says if the rains are spotty and disappointing the market will continue to add weather premium.

“I still am looking up in the July Kansas City wheat up toward that $7.70 1/2 area. That’s about 35, 40 cent higher. And I think we can do that, but we got to see a risk on situation for wheat for that to happen,” he adds.

Too Late for Some of the Wheat
Even if those areas get some rain it may be too late for a portion of the crop he says.

“You know, talking agronomists out there, talking to farmers, looking at pictures, obviously the wheat has been beaten and battered and it’s had everything thrown at it. We know wheat has nine lives, but maybe it used most of them up, if not all of them. And it really is coming a
little bit too late, in my opinion. I think if these general rains, if they are general, would have come four weeks ago, totally different story. But it’s just getting too late in the life cycle of those plants for that to make a huge difference other than some grain fill and plumping up some of
the kernels in those heads,” he explains.

Does $7 Winter Wheat Choke Off Demand
If the winter wheat market gets above $7 will it choke off demand?

Some U.S. millers have already started to import lower priced wheat from places like Poland.

Frye says, “Yeah, I think so. I’m not really bullish above $7. I think if you are bullish above $7, it’ll be after we have a big pullback. And a big pullback could easily take Kansas City wheat from $7 back to $6.50 before you build the energy to go again. So I wouldn’t be bullish at $7,
but I’d be selling into that area. That would be my opinion.”

Corn Higher for the Week
Corn futures were flat on Friday caught between higher soybeans and lower wheat.

However, corn was higher for a second week on the heels of wheat, but also trading weather according to Frye.

“I think it’s a little bit of both, and maybe you can throw in war and crude and some of those things. We know crude has a 90% correlation to corn, and obviously crude isn’t breaking out above $125 yet, but I still think crude could break out above $125 later on in the year as we see
more strain from some of the logistical issues around the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. It’s still not open, but time will tell on that.”

He also thinks corn is getting help from the dry Brazilian weather in the safrihna corn areas.

“We know the monsoonal flow ended a couple weeks early and obviously they don’t have organic matters in three and four percent down there they’re more like one and a half or so because they’re close to equator those are baked out soils and obviously rain shutting off early will have an impact on that crop. So, I think corn’s getting a little support from that and then of course wheat breaking out that is not bearish corn,” he explains.

What Will it Take Get Corn Above Resistance?
While corn is following wheat it will take some type of weather issue later in the summer to produce a chart breakout in corn according to Frye.

“I think we can grind higher because we’re in a strong seasonal, at least up through the middle of May to the end of May. We know the seasonal really turns down in the beginning part of June for the row crops, for corn and soybeans. Wheat hits its seasonal high, usually around that May 20th time frame. So we probably can grind higher, but if we’re going to get a really big rally that sustains us above $5, that’s going to have to be a weather problem, either a bigger one than what we’re seeing now,” he states.

Soybeans Range Bound
Soybeans were slightly higher on Friday on spillover from soybean meal and bean oil but have been rangebound.

July can’t get above the $11.80 mark Frye says.

“I think you’ve got a sideways chop here. We know it’s been doing that quite frequently here in the last seven months since it has turned higher. And that $11.80, we get above $11.85 and more convincingly above. you know, let’s say $12.10, then we can have a run back up to the highs.
But we got some work to do. A lot of overhead resistance,” he says.

Plus mean and oil are going in opposite directions he adds. “Meal was a down week this week, but bean oil was up like 340 points. Bean oil has been certainly the darling of the complex. I think meal is valued properly here for livestock guys. If they want to be buying meal, probably a good bargain area to be buying it. But I think meal can go higher. Didn’t have a great week this week, but maybe next week will be better.”

Soybeans Sideways on China
Soybeans have been range bound in part waiting for the mid-May meeting in China.

“You know, we know the summit is supposed to happen. It hasn’t been called off. And and we know that I think a lot of the strain that China could be feeling, whether it’s fertilizer, food, security, energy. I know they’ve stocked up on energy. They built a reserve over the last couple of years for a day like today when the Strait of Hormuz has been shut. Venezuela has been now controlled by the U.S. And of course, that’s where a lot of their oil came from. Do think that ahead of the summit, this could soften them up. Maybe we can have some better negotiations as they maybe need to make a deal. And maybe that’ll mean some ag products, corn, wheat, even some soybeans. I’m less confident about soybeans as I am probably more confident about maybe corn and wheat being in that deal.”

Both USTR Jamieson Greer and well as Chinese officials have said they want a deal that does includes more than soybeans.

He adds that a strong bean oil market and record crush have also held the market together.

Double Top in November Soybeans
New crop November soybeans did try to make new highs this week and got within 1/4 cent before reversing and leaving a double top on the charts. So is that a concern?

Frye says, “Anytime you get a double top it is a concern. I don’t think we’ll start a big move down like taking us back to $11. I’m still bullish new crop beans. I think it’s too early for that. But yes, that is a concern. What we need to see happen this next week is us to build some support in this area where we pull back to and then start to move higher.”

He thinks the next time the market goes up it will break that double top.

“Whether that’s a week or two out from now or sooner. I think that probably is in the cards. But right now I am a little concerned because that action was not great,” he describes.

Cattle Market Bottoming?
The cattle market had a nice reversal on Thursday and built on that momentum on Friday but is this bottoming action?

Frye says maybe not, “I’d like to see a little higher bounce into early next week and then I would have slated another move lower probably another you know $5 to $10 down in the feeder cattle getting under the most recent low from a couple days ago. Same in live cattle getting down in the $5 to $7 range, moving under the low from a couple of days ago. So I don’t think the full correction is done, but I think a bounce to start the week and then we’ll see what happens with cash.”

He does think the market can rally again though because there is no quick fix to the tight numbers unless the border is reopened to Mexican feeders.

Cattle Rebound As Border Reopening Fear Fades
Part of the fundamental rebound in the market on Thursday into Friday was as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled a trip to Arizona and alleviated fears of an announcement about reopening the border.

He says, “Yeah that was part of it. You don’t always know what news is going to show up to give you that. But I’d accept that, that now that’s a little sigh of relief. And so we bounce, but maybe she takes a trip next week and we fall on that. But I’m still looking lower before the next rally. I think we have to make another new low for the move.”

Ag Markets Divorcing From War Headlines
Frye says the ag markets are starting to get numb to the war headlines and have gone back to trading their own fundamentals.

The same thing happened back in 2022 when the Russia Ukraine war broke out.

“I think the market’s starting to divorce itself from these headline news items that gyrate back and forth. You can’t trust them. And in the end, we bombed them really hard. They’re not going to strike back. Yes, they’re a nuisance, but I’m thinking the Strait of Hormuz is being blockaded and it’s being closed for more than just to starve Iran out. It might be an economic situation, really trying to... attack maybe better tariffs for Europe, better tariffs for China, and really taking the world a little bit hostage with us having oil and us having the fertilizer and us having the food here versus the rest of the world and getting better deals negotiated. So I can’t, you know, rule that out. And so I do think people and the
markets, markets are traded by people. They’re starting to care less about these headlines and things are getting back to normal,” he adds.

That is why the stock market is back to all time highs and other market have normalized.