Ag Grain Commodity Markets, Prices & Futures

Grains Plunge With Oil, Peace Talks: Is the Rally Over?

Wed, 06 May 2026 21:55:54 GMT

Grain and hog markets were lower on Wednesday with cattle higher.

Grains Tank With Crude Oil
Grains markets were lower in tandem with the plunge in crude oil on headlines of peace talks and a possible end to the Iran war. If the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened how much lower could grain futures fall with energy markets?

Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.

“If oil continues to slide sharply lower, you know, that’s obviously going to be a big headwind for the grain markets. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe chew through this headline quicker than we saw earlier in the year and maybe get the grain markets to trading back to their fundamental backdrop and the uncertainties that lie there,” he says.

Market Hit Technical Resistance
Corn also saw technical headwinds come into play according to Sloup as July corn made a double top.

“We saw July corn futures bump up against those March highs, $4.84, $4.87 1/2, tag that top to a tee and then set back. And if you look back all the way to last spring, that was also kind of a key inflection point for the market as well. You had the RSI or the relative strength index getting into overbought territory, which has really only happened about four or five times over the last year and a half. And each of those times, you know, we did see a correction of about 10 to about 30 cents. So somewhere in that ballpark, which is what we got today. So maybe a little bit more weakness here in the near term,” he explains.

New crop December corn though he thinks can trade on its own merit once the market stabilizes.

Is the Grain Rally Over?
Sloup is not sure the grain market rally is over due to the uncertainties surrounding acreage, yield and fertilizer. That will continue to keep fund or managed money traders interested in buying commodities.

“You’ve got fertilizer concerns and you talk about the energy markets as well. I don’t think that the energy markets or crude oil specifically is going to drop straight back down to where we’re trading 50 or 60 bucks. I think those prices probably stay somewhat elevated. And the concern there was get longer, higher for longer energy prices, and that feeds into the inflation narrative. And that props up commodities as a whole and continues to draw in some managed money participation, which we’ve seen in these grain markets for the better part of really the year,” he says.

So, he thinks the pullbacks are still buying opportunities. “Maybe more so in those new crop contracts.”

Soybeans Also See Technical Resistance
Soybeans had also hit technical resistance and drug down by crude oil the market went down and closed below the breakout points on the charts.

“So, we’re kind of right back down there to that breakout point that we saw about a week and a half ago. I think it was April 29th that we broke out above that range. And now we’re just retesting it and hopefully being able to defend that. That’s going to be a key area to keep the market in check. If we break and close back below there, potentially we see another 20 to 30 cents of downside here in the near term. But again, I think we potentially settle back into that choppy sideways range,” he explains.

However, new crop soybeans have had a more bullish chart pattern than old crop.

Soybean oil also hit new contract highs before reversing lower with crude oil but Sloup doesn’t think the market did technical damage.

“It was a big pullback in the bean oil market but with what we saw in the oil complex, I don’t think it was all surprising. Really not a whole lot of damage on the chart but a bit of a caution flag here in the next week’s trade,” he adds.

Awaiting China Meeting
The soybean market should be supported with the China summit next week May 14 and 15 and there could even be some buying ramping up into the meeting on optimism about the 25 MMT new crop soybean business being confirmed.

Sloup says, “I think that certainly kind of keeps funds interested and playing, so to speak. Funds have shown an appetite in the soybean complex really all year, as well as the corn market. So I wouldn’t be surprised the optimism build going into that.”

Broader Fund Buying in Grains
Sloup says there is also optimism growing about future expectations in other market.

“You don’t have to look too far to see what’s going on in the equity complex, whether it could be the S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow, etc. Just massive participation from money managers and potential. They start to look at commodities in a similar fashion here this year. Commodities have been pretty quiet over the last couple of years. But when you zoom out and look at the historical commodity super cycles, as we like to refer to them as, they really start with the base metals, precious metals, and then flow into energy. The next year to drop would be the agricultural complex.”

Last year money managers were moving into metals, this year energy and next is the grain markets.

Has Wheat Topped?
Wheat markets were lower removing war premium but have also been removing weather premium according to Sloup.

“A lot of uphill sledding for the wheat market and it is the wheat market so it can be a little bit more irrational for lack of better terms. We had the big move higher but I think you know looking back about a week and a half ago, we had that big blow off top, new highs for the move, and then a sharp reversal. And you just saw that snowball on itself. So, $6.60 is going to be the big level to hold for that Kansas City contract. That was the breakout point and kind of the old resistance area. If we can continue to defend that, I think that the Kansas City contract. Probably holds firm and continues to mark higher highs and higher lows. Breaking close below that would make me a little bit more nervous,” he says.

The Chicago contract has done more technical damage. He says, "$6.10 to $6.16, that’s a 20 and 50 day moving average. That’s the line in the sand that we want to see hold below that. You know, there’s potentially another 30 cents a downside,” he adds.

Wheat Production Cuts In WASDE?
Will USDA made any meaningful cuts to wheat production in the May 12 WASDE?

Sloup says, “I don’t know that they’re going to make any significant adjustments. I’m not really expecting them to. I would say that the market will trade this USDA report rather quickly. And then it’s probably going to be back to headlines and what’s going on in the corn and soybean market and potentially those markets feed on each other as far as the money flow goes.”

Cattle Continue Recovery
Cattle futures were up for a second day and continue to try to recover from last Friday’s key reversals with help from higher early cash.

“Cash continues to be the leader in that market and really hold a good foundation underneath things as well as just the technical landscape of things. We tested the 20 -day moving average earlier in the week. That will be probably a key inflection point, $249.25 to $250. Break and close below there, potentially you get some long liquidation. But again, the fundamental backdrop, the herd size, the cash trade continues to be just a solid foundation for this market,” he says.

But still he says cattle are resilient. “And whenever we see the turbulence, like we saw earlier in the week, it’s almost like holding a beach ball down underwater or trying to press one down underwater where you can only push it so far down and then it pops back twice as high as you pushed it down. So that continues to be the theme for the cattle market. It seems that dips are buying opportunities.”

Plus, funds are defending their longs according to Sloup.

“They have a net long position of currently about 131,000 contracts, which is historically large, but off of the recent highs that we’ve seen,” he adds.

The one concern he has is a black swan event. “I guess the thing that would make me potentially nervous would be outside market headlines or a potential border reopening, but trying to time those is nearly impossible. So for now, dips are potentially buying opportunities. Yeah, I’m sure lower corn futures, lower gas prices Probably helped out the cattle market and some total here today as well.”

Cattle, Restest the Highs?
He thinks the cattle market can retest the record highs and negate last Friday’s reversal.

“It’s really not all that far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to grind and push to the upside. With regards to the oil market, I think it’s interesting. I would almost look at a retracement in oil futures as a potential bearish catalyst. If you look at the correlation
between those, they’ve been trading almost in tandem, obviously not today. But I think that you probably look at that more as an inflation hedge rather than just risk on, risk off,” he states.

Hogs Lower....Again
Hog futures were back lower on Wednesday unable to extend Tuesday’s gains. So what is the problem with the hog market?

Sloup says, “I wish I had a good answer for you. We’ve been trying to be optimistic here on hogs as of late, but it just continues to mark lower highs and lower lows for that June contract, the 100 level. obviously has a little bit of psychological significance behind it and seems to have a gravitational pull to it as well this week. I think if we can defend that, you know, potentially we can carve out a low here, but not only do the bulls need to defend that, but we need to see consecutive closes out above $102, $102.50. That’s the 20 and 200 day moving averages. Consecutive closes out above there, maybe neutralizes some of the technical damage that we’ve seen over the last two months.”

Funds are only long about 46,000 futures. So no huge conviction to the downside or to the upside. It seems like they might be in a wait and see mode from these levels he adds.

Grains See Profit Taking, Hedge Pressure Off Highs: Cattle Stage Recovery

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:20:50 GMT

Grains ended lower on Tuesday with livestock higher.

Corn and Soybeans Ease on Profit Taking
Grains were lower on Tuesday seeing some profit taking after corn and soybeans made some new highs for the move on Monday.

Greg McBride of Allendale, says the market also saw some farmer selling and hedge pressure.

“Especially with the July contract going up and meeting that same high that it made back in March. It looks like an opportunity for these producers to get some of the last gas sales on old crop. You saw most of the negativity was up front, those May and July contracts.

December corn and soybeans also retested recent highs before hitting chart resistance.

He says, “The beans were up at just about their highs. The old crop beans, their old highs, are within 15 to 25 cents of it. So there’s some concerns about maybe getting up to the nosebleed section, especially at this time of the year when the markets do tend to put tops in. Anywhere from May to early June.”

Crude Oil Anchors Losses
The lower crude oil market also weighed on corn and soybeans and even wheat according to McBride.

“We see the market step back on Tuesday with the crude but we’re playing this back and forth game. So I think you’ve got to be careful about where some of the strength or weakness is coming from,” he points out.

He says money has been flowing into the grains due to the energy component but without a fundamental push it can easily reverse.

Fast Planting Pace
Another factor weighing on corn and soybeans was the fast planting pace at 38% nationally on corn, 4% ahead of average. Soybean planting was also at 33%, which is 10% ahead of the five year average.

Although the trend has been growing the last few years plant soybeans early this pace does support production. “Usually being ahead of pace does mean that we’re going to see a trend or above on on yields barring any major weather issues,” he says.

Plus, he says in areas that were struggling just a few days of favorable weather can result in some major progress.

“I think the guys in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, where they’re a little bit slower, we’ll see that pick up here over the next couple of weeks too,” he adds.

Soybeans Well Supported Ahead of China Meeting
McBride thinks that especially soybeans will be supported on any breaks heading into next week’s trade summit in China.

“I think that’s part of the reason that we’ve seen the bounce recently. You go back to October when we saw this similar lead up to the meeting between Trump and Xi. I don’t know that we get anything out of this for soybeans. It’ll probably turn into something more for agricultural in general purchases, but it’s definitely something the market’s going to be watching for,” he says.

He’s in the camp that the extra 8 MMT of old crop soybeans mentioned by President Trump is unlikely but if it is that would shock the market.

“We haven’t heard anything about that since early February. So if that comes out, that will be a market mover, especially for those soybeans,” he says.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact
Even if the China buys the 25 MMT of new crop soybeans the market may sell off anyway according to McBride.

“The 25 million metric tons for this year, for 27 and 28, I think you’ve got to have that priced in already,” he explains.

Now it’s one of those things where we are status quo. You’ve got to see some sort of a weather issue or you’ve got to see. I know everybody wants to

Wheat Consolidation Continues
Wheat futures continued to consolidate off the recent two year highs taking out risk premium, including weather premium with rain in the forecast for drought areas says McBride.

“Well, the wheat’s an interesting one because it’s so friendly depending on where you’re at. The Southwestern belt is dry. There’s a lot of acres that are going to be up for abandonment. There’s a lot of areas now, right, as we talk, that this week, this tonight, or on Tuesday night into Wednesday, you may be seeing some frost, some freezes, even some snow in some of those areas. So there’s some concerns about this crop out there,” he says.

However, the market is also driven by the crude oil market. “So you see the weakness in the crude on Tuesday and the wheat followed it. What happens if we go up another $4 or $5 in crude Wednesday or Thursday does the wheat take off to the high side again?”

Wheat Holds Support
Wheat futures did hold support on the charts to keep the uptrend intact and the funds defending their long position.

He says, “For right now, and you’ve seen the Minneapolis position for the funds has gone to a record long. KC is long. Chicago is just slightly long at this point when it comes to the managed money positions. That’s not a situation that you take lightly. They don’t tend to stick into those
long positions for wheat. But when they start to build and they build like they have, especially in the KC in the Minneapolis on either drought or smaller crop because of less acres, that could be a situation that maybe sticks around for a little bit. And maybe what we’re doing really is resetting the overall dominant range to a little bit higher in that wheat market.”

Funds have not been this long in wheat since June of 2022.

May WASDE Confirm Smaller Crop?
Will the May WASDE confirm the smaller winter wheat crop or will the market get that news from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour next week?

McBride says, “Yeah, I think it’s the wheat tour will probably have a better look at it. You’ve still got some areas that are coming out of dormancy. I don’t know how much the USDA is going to want to step out on their WASDE report, but I think that the wheat tour is going to tell us a lot as we go through it.”

The rate of abandonment may be the key which can be a wild card. “I hear a lot of producers talking about abandonment in January, February, but then it comes out that they end up with a crop that’s 30 to 50 bushels. I do think just based off of some of the customers that I’ve talked to, there is going to be more abandonment than other years. It’s hard to gauge at this point right now. I know there’s a lot of insurance guys out there checking fields to see what’s available to them.”

Cattle Market Recovers Tuesday
Live and feeder cattle futures staged a recovery on Tuesday after holding key support areas on Monday’s set back and with lower corn prices.

However, McBride says there was also some early cash trade at higher money of $255 to $257, which is unusual this early in the week.

“So you had a strong cash trade last week. We were up $8 or $9 from the previous week. You started getting this early week cash trade on Monday and then some on Tuesday is an interesting look because we don’t see that very often. So to have steady to even up to two dollars higher does push this market a little bit,” he explains.

Plus, boxed beef was higher on Tuesday. So, he thinks Monday’s action was tied to news of the DOJ probe of meat packers.

“This is a market that’s in an uptrend and has been in a long-term uptrend. So lately, these sell-offs, especially when it’s $5, $6, $7 in the feeders, has been a buying opportunity for speculators especially,” he adds.

So higher cash could negate Friday’s key reversal.

DOJ Probe
With an announcement expected Friday on more action against the meat packing industry to get beef prices down that could spook the market again.

However McBride says this is not the first investigation and no changes have ever resulted from it.

“It’s one of those things, it needs to go further. They need to find something or they need to do something about it. But just having a probe, I don’t think that does anything for us substantially,” he adds.

Hog Market Bounces
The hog market finally bounced off of four month lows with the help of the rally in cattle and as futures held support.

McBride says, “We took out support from like a week ago, two weeks ago on Monday. We took that low out on Tuesday. The reversal here looks good. I’m hoping what we’ve seen is we’ve finally seen a little bit of a fight for for seasonals in that market. You know, we talk about seasonals and all these other markets, but as you go into spring, you start to see the procurement for for summer grilling season. That’ll be the one to really watch when it comes to the to the pork side of things. Can we get some sort of a retest of, you know. just getting back up to kind of 50% retracement. That puts you around like $106, $105, something like that in those June, July, August contracts.”

Grains See Profit Taking with Lower Energy, Crop Progress: Cattle Recover

Tue, 05 May 2026 16:06:31 GMT

Grains were lower early Tuesday, with livestock higher.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets were all lower to start Tuesday seeing some routine profit taking after hitting new highs for the move and even some new contract highs in parts of the corn and soybean complex, according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading.

He says the markets were also watching the energy sector which was seeing some lower prices.

“I think every day when you wake up, you got to ask yourself, where’s crude at? Where’s energy markets? And that’s the first place to go to look to maybe set the tone for where these markets are going to be at across your grain. So, yeah, that’s the first place to look. Dec new crop corn made a new high overnight. But yeah, pulling off and testing that $5 level on new crop corn are attractive levels for producers,” he says.

So, there may also be some farmer selling. “Yeah those round numbers stick in producers mind for sales targets,” he says.

Dec $5 Corn, Now Where?
He says now that Dec corn has closed above $5 there may be more upside to the market, especially as funds continue to buy.

“I look at managed money positions quite often and funds have been on the right side of the grain market since the first of March. You know, the end of February when those March options came off the books, funds were net short 13,000 corn contracts. And now as of last Tuesday,
264,000 long. And there’s estimates that they’re closer to 300,000 net long currently. So you’ve got to respect that number. That’s well off the record high for their net long position in corn. So there’s room for them to add to that length,” he adds.

Still he says to respect where the funds are at and prepare for a pull back on long liquidation.

Money Flow, Crude Oil Supports Grains
Still, he says the money flow has been favoring grains and the market should be supported on inflationary concerns as long as crude oil prices stay elevated.

“Yeah, it goes back to where are the energy markets? What are they doing? You got crude above $100 in this area. That’s going to support the market. Rising prices at the pump, they make ethanol more competitive compared to gasoline. But on the flip side, Michelle, too, we got to think about gasoline. That’s the main delivery mechanism for getting ethanol and driving ethanol consumption. So if you have higher prices at the pump, is that going to curb usage? And then that kind of goes back to inflation too. Is that going to squeeze consumers’ pocketbooks and actually cause less ethanol usage?

He says many people are looking for a reduction in ethanol usage in the May WASDE and the next few reports.

Fast Planting Pace
The fast planting pace is also weighing on corn and soybeans as U.S. corn seeding pace was at 38% Monday with the five year average at 34%. Soybean planting at 33% was 10% ahead of average.

He says, “No significant problems getting the crop in you look at corn planting pace above the five -year average pace is you know just screaming we’re getting beans in the ground and they’re ahead of normal. That’s good until the rains I guess don’t come but that doesn’t look to be a problem right now.”

That early planting is also taking production risk out of the market he adds.

“So, each day we plug along in this production cycle you know we’re getting the crop in the ground then it’s early vegetative growth and then as we enter reproductive growth putting seeds on the plants and and production the more we know about a market the more certainty we get on the supply side the less risk there out is out there and the market becomes less concerned about a production problem,” he adds.

The market is also watching the dry conditions in the Brazil and if that will trim production on the second crop corn.

Soybean Market Also Makes New Highs
Soybeans made new highs for the move on Monday so the market is seeing profit taking and some farmer selling pressure especially with fast planting.

However, Huck says the market will be well supported going into the China meeting next week and with the May WASDE on Tuesday.

“So next week could be a really dynamic week and who knows what to expect out of that. So we will get the WASDE, we will get the first look at the new crop balance sheets for both corn, beans, and wheat,” he says.

China Meeting in Focus
Plus, the volatility of the China Summit with President Trump and President Xi meeting on May 14 and 15 will be in focus.

“We’ll see what comes out of there. My biggest concern about that meeting and what’s changed over the last month is that Iran and the conflict there will take more precedence over a bigger, larger ag trade deal. It may take the air out of the room a little bit as they focus on other things,” he says.

The concern could also be if the soybean market has already price it in then there may be a “buy the rumor sell the fact reaction” which could produce a selloff.

“You have these headlines the anticipation of an event and like you said there you can buy the rumor and sell the fact and where will this market go so a lot of a lot of pieces of the puzzle ahead,” he says.

Marketing Strategy?
Huck says seasonals are in the farmers favor right now and so they need to watch the market to take advantage of opportunities to price.

“Producers should keep an eye on these grain prices and where they’re at and be opportunistic don’t rule out where things can go but uh respect where they’re at today and where we’ve come from,” he adds.

Wheat Market Falls on Conditions, Rains
Wheat futures are trading nearly 35 cents off of the 2-year highs scored in soft red and hard red winter wheat contracts just a week and a half ago.

The crop condition rating on Monday was up 1% to 31% good to excellent and there are forecasts for rain in the next few days. In fact there was already some rain falling on Tuesday morning in some areas of Colorado and Nebraska.

“Wheat’s been on a tear this year. You know, one of the best performing commodities. I think July KC wheat is, you know, traded almost a $2 trading range since the first of the year. It rallied from $5.35 up to $7.18. We’ve pulled back off of that. We’re about 35 cents off the highs on the July KC wheat contract,” he says.

Crop conditions are bleak the further west you travel into Eastern Colorado and the extreme Western Kansas the panhandle.

However, says, “The wheat crop looks tough but in my travels here I’ve seen you know seen some ground over the last couple weeks traveling around. I’ve actually kind of been impressed with pleasantly surprised with some of what the wheat looks like. So wheat’s a very resilient crop. We often joke that it, you know, needs nine lives to kill it. And I don’t know what life we’re on. Some of it has spent all of them, but I wouldn’t underestimate. I think there’s more potential out there than than maybe what we thought a couple of weeks ago. And yeah, we’ll see. A rain, I think. still help some things.”

He was surprised though with the slight improvement in crop conditions on Monday.

“We really saw kind of a separation where some of that, the fair either went up into good and excellent, or it drifted back into the poor, very poor. So there’s definitely have and have-nots out there in wheat country, and it’s a resilient crop. It’s used up a lot of its lives. Don’t count it out,” he adds.

Wheat Marketing Opportunity
Huck says there are some opportunities to market wheat right now.

“It’s a really difficult crop to market to, Michelle. Are we going to raise 60 bushel wheat or are we going to raise 10 bushel wheat? So options make a good tool to be using there to protect these prices. And if you’re not doing something on 26 or you feel like you can’t, maybe look out there at 27 and see what you can do out there on 27 crop,” he explains.

Kansas Wheat Tour
The Wheat Quality Council tour is headed for Kansas May 11-14 and Huck expects a mixed bag regarding what they find in the field.

“I think you’re going to see some extreme photos of browned out wheat with no heads and just big bare spots. I think you’re going to see some thin wheat. I think you’re going to see some frost freeze damage wheat. You’re going to get a basket of a little bit of everything. But I think there’s going to be some pockets out there where the wheat looks better than expected. And maybe an average, below average type of crop would be my anticipation. It’ll be interesting to see when we get the boots on the ground. And some of that freeze damage is out there, too, because that’s one of the most difficult things to look at, especially from the 70-mile-an-hour drive-by look that I often get at wheat,” he states.

The key to production may be the abandonment of acres and he says that may not show up yet in the May WASDE.

“Typically the USDA takes a scaled approach to making those adjustments, but you never know what to expect when it comes to printing a number on paper,” he says.

Cattle Market Trying to Recover
The cattle market was higher early on Tuesday trying to recover from the key reversals scored on Friday.

The market made record highs that day in both live and feeder cattle futures and then ended lower and continued to sell off Monday.

So can the market make a full recovery?

Huck says, “The cattle market’s strong and we’re up here, you know, very near record levels, just off those record levels, looking at feeders, looking at fats, you know, May feeders posted contract highs Friday, $378.27, closed yesterday, $366.60. You know, we have a $12 off the high just yesterday,”

However, he points out May’s beef month and grilling season is just ahead.

“There’s a lot of fundamental supportive factors for the beef market going forward. But one of the biggest questions in my mind is the health of the consumer. That’s to me is what’s going to drive demand and drive this market going forward. If they show resiliency to continue buying beef because they like the way it tastes, they like the health consciousness of it. It’s a nutrient dense protein that brings lots of stuff, lots of good stuff to consumers. If they’ve got an appetite for beef, I would not guess how long this good market can last,” he adds.

Cattle Market Resilient
The cattle market has also been resilient in the face of bearish headlines. While it did trade bearish in reaction to the announced DOJ probe of meat packers it doesn’t take long for the fundamentals to came back into focus.

“There’s a lot of headlines out there that get slung around and you never know when the trade’s going to trade them and when they’re going to completely ignore them,” he says.

Cash is King
Still with record cash last week that will support the market and the strong cash trade moving foward.

This week the cash market may be more quiet after a week of big gains and last week’s early trade.

“Wholesale beef prices there’s just some natural ebb and flow as to what the packer needs to do to manage the inventory manage their margin and then you’ll manage the supply on the feed yard side so lots of ebb and flow in this market the fundamentals haven’t really changed but
you never know when they’re gonna they are going to change,” he says.

Cash Feeders Strong
The cash feeder market has not cooled off which should also support the feeder cattle futures.

“Right. Yeah, we’re the index is moving around quite a bit. A couple of weeks ago, we saw a pullback on it with some headlines. You kind of got to watch energy markets in the macro markets as well whenever you’re looking at cattle. And we see some pullbacks, some sell offs, ten dollar sell offs. But cash data last week was pretty strong and bouncing back. Watch that cash, not just the the index average change each day, but the daily data that goes into the feeder cattle index each. each day that also provides some clues as to where things are going,” he adds.

Cattle Fall After Reversal, Is the Top In? Corn Above $5, Beans to New Highs

Mon, 04 May 2026 22:24:03 GMT

Grains end mostly higher Monday, with cattle and hogs lower.

Have Cattle Topped?
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day on follow through selling. Both made record highs on Friday and then closed lower on big volume scoring key reversals.

So is the top in the cattle market?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this market but it fits the profile of a technical top.

“Some 45 years ago I learned a reversal has to be from a terminal area, which is just a fancy way of saying an important area. And I don’t know what’s more important than the all time high. So, we did that on Friday. It has to be done on big volume. It was 86,000. It should be accompanied by an increase in open interest, and it was. And then the third thing is that it should have followed through the following day,” he explains.

However, he says the market ended well off the lows because at one time feeder cattle were over $7 lower and the June live cattle closed almost $3.50 off its lows.

“While it was still lower, it was a long ways from where it was,” he says.

Cattle Hold Critical Support
So the market held the support it needed to on the charts because according to Kooima June live cattle stayed above the 50-day and the
20-day moving averages, which has been kind of significant to keep an eye on.

“August feeders got a little whippy. We got all the way down to 62% retracement, then held that. So I’d say we did good enough holding what I think was technically important,” he adds.

Cash Trade Topped?
Several fundamental factors may have also caused the sell off including this week’s cash expectations.

Last week the cash market hit record high levels with Southern deals mostly $244 to $256, up $9 to $10. The North was $255 to $258 live and mostly $400 dressed, up $14.

The average steer price was reported by USDA at a new record high of $255.02, up $8.84. So it will be hard to see an encore.

“I mean, the market was basically $246 last week, Wednesday, I think. I know I passed $248 on Friday then, but if you compare like $246 and then getting cattle as high as $258 last week. You find me a week where that happened before. There was a couple of weeks in 2014 that were like that, but maybe not quite that much,” he says.

Kooima adds that it is interesting the packers came out already so aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday, to try to buy cattle.

“And dovetail that with the fact that a month ago or so, there was plenty of these basis deals made by some of the major packers where they were willing to pay five or six over where the Junes were for the first two weeks of May. At that time, that was the equivalent of like $252 on cash cattle. At the same time, the cash market was probably $5 to $7 less than that. Well, a lot of guys did that because that looked pretty attractive, right? Turns out it’s cheap now compared to what the packer paid last week,” he explains.

So the packer was trying to get enough inventory so they didn’t have to work so hard to secure as many numbers this week theorizes Kooima.

“So you’re going to have a standoffish week on cash, maybe. Let’s call it steady due to lack of trade, perhaps, just because I don’t think we’ve
got very small show lists up here in the North, very small. So we don’t have much for sale, but you might have a packer that might not need to buy much,” he says.

Kill Cuts
That because the packers are trying to cut kills this week to prop up their margins.

“I’m not going to say names, but there’s plenty of them that are going four days this week. And one’s down today. A couple of them are down Friday. So the packer is trying to do whatever is necessary to not have to chase the market anymore,” he adds.

That was already a pressuring feature for the market on Friday.

High Gas, Stock Market Sell Off
Also working against the cattle market was the surging gas prices and the sharply lower stock market.

At some point that becomes negative for consumer demand. “One has the worry that, you know, and the inflation or the stress on the budget that’s created by that. And let’s be honest. I mean, boxed beef is no runaway with this tight kill. And it is less than a week now till Mother’s Day. We’re already past that. Usually two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day. That’s kind of your signal for let’s begin the middle meat rally. So hopefully it
still develops. But I think. There was some of that going on today,” he says.

So that created some technical selling especially with the funds nearly record long.

DOJ Probe
Adding to the bearish attitude was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterating the goal of the Trump administration to get beef prices down.

Part of that strategy includes a Department of Justice investigation of the beef packing industry.

He says, “I’m not sure that Secretary Rollins commentary this morning was helpful to the market either, bringing up the concept of investigating the big four. You know, probably if you’re an algorithm trader and you’re trading, you might think, you know what, I don’t think I want to be participating in this kind of uncertainty.”

DOJ has probed the packing industry in the past only to walk away empty handed but it spooked the funds.

“There’s things that have happened historically that deserve some looking into including the Holcomb fire. I was very vocal through that period about how we killed more cattle after the fire than before it but they couldn’t see anything wrong then. You know, I mean, we had 85 cent cattle and $450 boxes. So, you know, so what are they going to find now?”

Hogs Down Again
Lean hog futures were down again on Monday with continued fund liquidation and technical selling.

Kooima says the market got spooked about the pseudorabies case in Iowa on Thursday and Friday.

He was hopeful with the positive comments Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig made about the problem being contained that the market would stablize.

“He outlined how everything got tested. These were five boars from Texas and an isolated incident. We’ve got protocol in place and we haven’t had a case since 2004. I was hoping that maybe cooler heads would prevail,” he adds.

Kooima says the cash news is pretty friendly but the market can’t find support and the charts look terrible.

“The inability to source pigs because of the disease problems is real. What these pigs cost, close to $100 on an isowean, $150 on a 40-pounder, would tell you just how tight the supply is. So, you know, I have a tendency to be a little bit of a supply-side bull here with nothing to show for it.”

Soybeans Break to Fresh Highs
Soybeans ended 16 to 21 cents higher on Monday and made new highs for the move in both old and new crop contracts.

The market was following bean oil which made more new contract and multi-year highs once again chasing higher crude oil.

The market was also building in optimism ramping up into the trade summit next week in China.

“The hope that we get something tangible with this China visit. I would caution everybody be a little careful as this is China. They’re a bit disingenuous and not the most reliable trade partner but that is out there,” he states.

The crude oil/bean oil story is also a drive as he says with higher energy prices there is the fear of inflation.

“I think is reflecting in some of our commodity prices here, too, most notably some of the stuff that is relatively cheap, like the grains are,” he adds.

How High Will Soybeans Rally?
With the chart breakout will July soybeans be able to take out the March high of $12.50 3/4 and will November soybeans get above $12?

Kooima says both of those moves are in the cards. “Based on the chart pattern here and the fact we have broke out of the range we have been in for six or seven weeks. When you break out of those consolidation patterns that it’s like coiling a spring. I always think the tighter it’s wound then the bigger reaction you get. So, this thing actually projects through that old $12.50 area on the July beans which is a big deal. On both the
weekly chart and on the daily chart it actually opens up the path here for a move to $12.70 or even maybe even closer to $13 on the old crop.”

That could put November in the $12.40 to $12.50 price range where he would suggest some marketing.

Corn Makes Fresh Highs, Dec Closes Above $5
Corn also made fresh highs for the move in sympathy with soybeans and on fund buying.

Funds bought over 80,000 contracts and could add to that Kooima says.

“You don’t have to be a genius to look at $4.85 to $4.87 on the July corn to know how important that is. Let’s see if we can take that out. December corn, you know, that’s new highs for the move. Nice looking chart pattern. We are kind of overbought here. I don’t know if we need to rest just a little bit. But, you know, incrementally, I was starting to look at some new crop sales here. And then the next level at around $5.20. And then the next one around $5.45. I’m more inclined to sell into the corn rally.”

He says the market is also watching weather, lower acreage and fertilizer concerns plus whether or not China buys corn at the summit.

Soybeans, Corn Make Fresh Highs on Demand, China Hopes: Cattle Spiral

Mon, 04 May 2026 15:53:39 GMT

Soybeans and corn were higher early Monday, wheat started lower then bounced. Cattle and hogs were lower.

July Soybeans Break Out
Soybean futures had made some fresh highs for the move early Monday with July trying to break out of its sideways trading range.

John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says it is a function of record crush and hopes for China business ramping up to the mid-May meeting between the two countries, which trade teams are still preparing for despite the ongoing Iran conflict.

“You got the technical breakout. So we’re seeing some money flow triggering that. You still got this really good demand on the crush side here domestically in that regard. So I think that’s supportive of the market as well. But then obviously, too until that meeting happens on the 14th to 15th and this market might be building some anticipation that China could step into the market, either old crop, new crop, pick up some beans in that regard. So I think that’s some of what’s happening here,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Pace
Crush margins continue to be strong with the recent contract highs in bean oil and surging global demand regarding biofuels but he says soybean meal is keeping pace.

“You’re looking at some of these crush margins at their best levels in history, or at least in modern history in terms of support for that crush industry,” he says.

USDA’s crush report for March pegged soybean crush at 227.4 million bushels which was below expectations, but it was still a record.

“I’m hearing some different talk about some regional tightness. So, I guess the question now is where the beans are. Are they hanging on to
them? What’s left? What’s it going to take to get them out? So watching the basis levels and what’s happening regionally with these crushers is going to be a big part of this market here in the short term. And I’ve said it before, if margins are good, crushers will pay whatever they want to per bushel of beans, just as long as they’ve got the crush margin taken care of and profitability coming,” he says.

Import South American Soybeans?
At what point though will processors start buying cheaper South American soybeans?

Heinberg says, “I think we’re actually pretty close to that point. And that’s the next thing I’m kind of waiting for is that headline. You know, you’re looking at Brazilian beans, maybe $1, $1.30 bushel underneath the United States right now on the export markets. And the biggest problems in South America, obviously, is the monster crop that Brazil had. The Chinese demand has not been there and so there there’s processors or elevators sitting on piles of beans right now and they’re getting to a window here where they may just have to put those
beans on the market just to get some cash flow moving it could be a very interesting situation for some of those Brazil elevators down there if the beans don’t start getting moving because they were counting on that Chinese demand to pick up those beans. When China picking up those U.S. beans late in the winter, first part of the year, I think it’s really kind of curbed into that expectation from those Brazilian elevators down there.”

November Soybeans Make Fresh Highs
November soybeans also made new highs for the move on Friday and again Monday morning.

Can November get above $12? Heinberg says that is the next target and may be pushed by China if they buy the 25 MMT the president has suggested.

Heinberg says, “Maybe China does not pick up old crop beans, but they go ahead and forget they talk about buying 25 MMT of soybeans for the next year. So, maybe they start looking into that window here as well. I think that’s something that continues to support the market.”

The cold wet weather may be causing some planting delays as well which may give beans that little bit of a push.

Corn Follows Soybeans, Capped by Wheat
Corn futures made new highs for the move overnight but were slightly lower early Monday with the pullback in wheat capping the rally as well as some farmer selling he says.

“We’ve seen a lot of really good money flow into the core market. In fact, we picked up, what, 80,000 contracts almost as of Tuesday last week,
and obviously it didn’t stop on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday,” he says.

However, the market was supported by the rally in soybeans.

$5 December Corn
December corn broke above $5 on Friday very briefly as farmer selling stepped in and is back above that level on Monday.

“I think people that missed the first chance at it are now jumping on the second chance. So I think that’s part of it. Historically, $5 corn is a pretty good point to definitely get some things going,” he says.

While producers have sold some corn at $5, he thinks a close above that level could open the door to $5.20 to $5.25.

The corn market is also watching planting pace and if any acres get shifted away from corn but the market will get its first indication of 2026-27 supply and demand in the May WASDE.

The market is also awaiting the March 13 vote on E15 in Congress and the corn market continues to be supported by high gas and crude oil prices.

Lastly, the Brazilian second corn crop has been under stress and bears watching, despite some forecasts for rain coming up.

China Buying Corn?
And just like soybeans the corn market is watching and waiting for the mid-May meeting in China with hopes for corn business.

Market chatter indicates China has been looking for some U.S. corn and that may be another reason why the funds may have been aggressive buyers recently.

Or Heinberg says China could be looking at buying ethanol, which would also be a boost for corn.

Wheat Topping?
The wheat market is seeing some pressure on Monday with rains in the forecast for some of the hard red winter wheat areas.

He thinks the market may have topped out in the short term, even though the funds have added to their length in wheat.

“The funds are record-long spring wheat right now because of the dryness in the Northern Plains. And we’ll have to see how those things all kind of play out. But at least wheat market may be finding a bit of a ceiling here. And if that happens, that’ll keep the market a little bit limited, even though the demand continues to be very good,” he says.

The Kansas Wheat Tour is coming up the week of May 11 but the market has priced much of that production loss in already he adds.

Money Flow Into Grains
The risk of the war with Iran and high energy prices and inflation concerns have all brought money into the grains and that could keep prices supported going forward says Heinberg.

“Crude oil over $100 I think it keeps some general support overall in the marketplace at this time frame. You know, maybe that’s some of the rally we’ve had too, is just the fact that corn needed to catch up to where crude is. You know, obviously there’s headline risk like we’ve seen
today, you know, possible hit on U.S. naval vessels. 15 minutes later, it was, you know, the U.S. said that did not happen. But in that time window, corn flashed to the highs of the day. Crude oil was up over $105 a barrel. You know, so that volatility continues to stay headline to
headline,” he says.

Cattle Futures Seeing Topping Action?
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower early Monday. Both markets hit record highs on Friday before staging reversals and possibly doing some chart damage. However, is this topping action?

Heinberg says the market may need a pullback, but a top is too early to call because fundamentally little has changed as far as supplies.

“The numbers just aren’t out there even look at the feeder market trading $4 under the index today,” he says.

He says the market has also been led by last week’s record cash and that is still king.

Packers bought a good amount of cattle last week so cash could be on the quiet side this week.

“But, you know, we are getting into that window where grilling demand is going to kick in here,” he adds.

Lean Hogs Close to Bottoming?
Lean hog futures have been down the last three sessions seemingly in response to the first cases of pseudorabies since 2004.

While it isn’t a food safety concern and there are vaccines for the disease the uncertainty seemed to weigh on futures plus there was some technical selling triggered.

Heinberg thinks the market is close to support levels.

“If you draw a line underneath the low going back to November, we’re right at that area. Actually, we traded under it a little bit on Friday and
recovered. Today, we back-tested that line again. So we’ll see this $100, $101 window on June. It does look like it’s at least a level that maybe this market can hold, but not really seeing any great strength in it today. Some of it is money flow. The funds are down to, as of Tuesday, 57,000
long contracts on hogs. That’s a pretty big chop considering where we were a few months ago in that regard. Hopefully it’s an area can find some support. Maybe it’s disease concerns just causing that, you know, again, the computers like to trade headlines and that might be the headline they’re pushing now with the pseudorabies issues. But at the same time, it’s starting to look a little bit like we’re undervalued here in these summer hogs, but we need some turn somewhere to get a little bit of a bid underneath this market.

Grains End Higher for April: Is a Bull Market Underway?

Sat, 02 May 2026 01:02:38 GMT

For the week July corn was up 16 3/4 cents, December was 14 ½ higher, July soybeans gained 24 ¾, November soybeans soared 27, July soybean meal was up $.20, July soybean oil surged 383 points, July hard red winter wheat was 24 ¾ higher, July soft red winter wheat gained 21 and September hard red spring wheat was up 12 ½.

Higher Monthly Closes in April
Grain markets were all higher for the week and closed April with a second consecutive higher monthly close.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says technically it is a very bullish to see grain markets making new highs for the year starting in May.

What Does it Signal?
“When you close above the previous month’s high, usually what that tells you is that going all the way back to January the market is digesting and discounting all the fundamental news that came out, even the most bearish news in the January 12 WASDE,” he explains.

The market also rejected the bearish news from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum in February and the delayed meeting with China in March.

“All that was digested and you couldn’t close below the previous month’s low like we did in past down trending markets.The market indicated it needed to push prices high enough to ration the demand for some reason and it exceeds all those fundamentals that are there. And we did it in April,” he adds.

Now the market is looking ahead at acreage according to Gulke and trying to determine if there will be more acres of soybeans and less acres of corn because of high fertilizer prices.

“So, you end up on Friday with corn going up more than beans or as much as beans, five cents. So, it looks like there’s a concern out there that even with lower exports to China and a record crop in Brazil, we need more acres of soybeans. That’s pretty exciting,” he says.

Now that the market has moved above the April highs he says the confirmation of a bull market is to see that uptrend continue in May.

“I want to see that continue in the first full trading day and week in May and through the WASDE report.Historically this time frame in May 10-13 has been a time when the market prices in the best news.So, we need to hold above that April high during May or there is a problem,” he says.

Currently he thinks the market is acting like it doesn’t care how many acres of corn or soybeans farmers grow because it is not going to be adequate.

Start of a Bigger Bull Market?
So, is this the beginning of a bigger bull market like the one that started in 2020 coming out of COVID?

Gulke thinks so and it’s being pushed by demand.

Two Large Demand Factors
1. Global Biofuels – The first demand component is the global push for biofuels.

Gulke says it’s not just the U.S. but economies around the world are looking at alternatives to mitigate $100 plus crude oil prices, plus high gasoline diesel fuel prices.

Countries like Indonesia are pushing from a B40 to a B50 biodiesel mandate and Brazil is increasing their ethanol blending rate from 30% to 32%.

Gulke says even in Illinois they have increased their vegetable oil based biodiesel blending rate from 10% to 20%.are using a 20% biodiesel blend made from soybean oil.

He says, “If crude oil stays above $100 suddenly everyone is going to need alternatives.”

2. Food Security – The second demand component is a function of food security.

Gulke says with near to record higher global fertilizer prices and a supply crunch in many countries’ food insecurity is on the rise.

“If you’re in a crisis area for crude oil and energy, you’ve got to say which is more important, the food I eat or the fuel that I burn in a car to go get my groceries?”

While the U.S. doesn’t have a problem with energy supplies, the prices are globally driven.

“Countries that have to import 70% to 80% of their energy, and they’re also importing food. You’ve got to be thinking about storing a little more grain in your country just in case,” he adds.

Plus, if tariffs are causing countries to buy more from the U.S., Gulke thinks that helps with demand.

Bull Markets Difficult to Manage
So, if the U.S. is on the verge of a bull market what should producers do?

Gulke says bull markets are difficult to manage.

“Bear markets, when something happens, you can sell on the bottom, gravity takes over. Bull markets just keep eating away at the negative rhetoric, like we’ve seen for months in the agriculture community. The price of inputs is going up but the price of commodities is also going up to help mitigate some of that, unless you are highly leveraged,” he describes.

According to Gulke, the problem is also if farmers sell now and the price goes up, they feel like they’ve left money on the table.

“So, it’s very difficult to handle bull markets because you can’t pick a top until it’s behind you in most cases but it’s still exciting,” he concludes.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Grains End Higher as Funds Buy on Inflation Concerns: Cattle, Hogs Lower

Fri, 01 May 2026 21:39:09 GMT

Grains ended higher on Friday with livestock lower.

Soybeans Rally with Bean Oil
Soybeans were higher on Friday following bean oil which made new contract highs and hit levels not seen since June of 2022.

Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says the bean oil market has been seeing strong U.S. and global demand with various countries announcing biodiesel mandates.

“Soybean oil has been the lead driver for the bean complex. Years ago, meal was the driver for beans. It’s now the oil due to the biodiesel.
That definitely is helping it,” he says.

Frost and Cold Weather
Soybeans may have also been adding risk premium due to frost concerns.

Some areas of the Corn Belt already saw freezing temperatures and are facing replant and there is another push of cold weather coming in the next few of days.

He says, “Another cold shot this weekend and there is worry about some replant going on. Parts of the country earlier this week also had some very, very heavy rains. We are hearing parts of Southern Indiana, Illinois might have to replant as well,” he says.

New Month, New Money in the Grains on Inflationary Buying
McCormick says a new month also brought in new money on inflation concerns.

“You know, as long as you have the problems in the Middle East going on, you’re going to have people wanting to buy commodities on the energy inflation hedge. And then the other story line you’re going to continue to hear is about the food inflation risk due to the fact of not getting fertilizer there. There’s fear there will be a shortage in the Southern hemisphere growing season. That is attracting spec money into the markets as well,” he adds.

He says there are plenty of investors that made money on the last round of inflation that started in 2020 and hit its height in 2022.

“Coming out of COVID, they made a lot of money trading that inflation story. So some of that money, I believe, is coming into the market. And that is what’s supporting the corn market,” he says.

The record high diesel fuel prices are also driving up inflation McCormick warns.

“Remember, everything is used, you know. for you know in energy to get that product to where we need it so you know you’re you know and then so much of the packaging is derived from products made from energy from crude. So you know that has got a lot of the just inspect investor money saying I want to own an asset that could make me money if we come back into inflationary times. We got some inflationary readings this week shows that the inflation is going the wrong way compared to what the Fed wants. It’s starting to creep back up and that tends to attract money near term.”

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
How much higher can soybean oil go if crude oil stays above $100? Is that the key here for keeping the funds interested in that market or not?

He says, “I think that’s one of the major keys. I mean, the fact is as crude oil continues to go higher, as the Strait stays shut, that probably is going to be supportive.”

The caveat is competition from other lower priced veg oils he explains. “What we’re finally starting to see is we saw the story six months, a year ago, where we were bringing a lot of used cooking oil in from China and going into our renewable diesel plants. Well, we’re starting to hear reports that that is happening again. So what it’s showing you is the price of bean oil domestically has gotten so competitively priced, so high priced, I should say, that you can now import it. That will tend to ration. the demand for the product a little bit, and that might at least at a minimum, slow the upward momentum.”

Worst case, he says it could force the top in the market.

Soybean Chart Breakout
Soybeans had a strong technical day with July closing above $12 and the November contract making a new contract high.

November soybeans could go higher but it depends on if the funds want to add to their long position.

“I would argue, the market isn’t trading your typical grain fundamentals. You’re trading macro fundamentals of the Middle East. And you’re trading, like I mentioned, the inflationary aspect of it. That can carry the market a lot further than economically it really makes sense. So really, the money flow is going to be the key to how far this market can be carried higher,” he says.

Although the July contract closed above $12 he says that contract is still range bound.

“It is still sideways. It’s taken out the near-term range. It has not taken out the high, I believe that was spike made the past fall when the Trump administration announced the China trade deal.”

China Meeting Key
He says that is the key for the market is if the China meeting happens in mid-May and is not delayed again.

“If talks with President Trump and Xi are still on, and President Trump is anticipated to make his way over to China here in the next couple of weeks you’re probably going to hear more rhetoric potentially about what China may do. I do not believe there are going to be a big buyer of old crop beans. They did in that first agreement back in the fall talk about buying 25 million metric tons of new crop beans. We’ll see if they can lock that down and get a hard commitment,” he explains.

If that deal doesn’t happen the soybean market could fall apart.

“We know I think the last time we go around when we had to postpone the meeting, the market did sell off a little bit. And there is a lot of uncertainty to it. Like I said, President Trump sounds like he wants to go. But, you know, we’ll see, you know, with the war going on in the
Middle East, I think all, you know, we probably, you know, this thing could fall apart at the last minute,” he adds.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn made new highs for the move while December again was capped by the $5 mark.

McCormick says the funds are buying corn because of inflation concerns and the fertilizer issues.

“There’s no doubt about it I mean part of it is you are seeing some buying I think definitely on the fertilizer plate now most people agree that the fertilizer in the U.S. is expensive but there is no shortage. We’re pricing on a world market and if our prices are too cheap somebody from the rest of the world will come in and buy it and ship it back there but it’s here,” he says.

The world is worried if the Strait isn’t reopened there is going to be a shortage for fall needs and South American needs.

He adds another thing attracting investor money is the ethanol grind and the price of ethanol compared to gasoline, which is much cheaper.

$5 December Corn?
So it may be just a matter of time here before December takes out the $5 level but how far can it run before farmer selling caps the rally?

He says, Well, it’s a situation where we saw a lot of farmers selling here this week as the market tried to push into that $5 level. And then I would argue as we get through that $5 level, you’re probably going to hear a backoff of selling. And then you get back up, I believe you had the contract high, I believe was right around $5.12. That’ll be the next level resistance. I mean, now the question is where are farmers going to be comfortable selling versus the speculators that want to own it?”

Six weeks ago he says farmers would have jumped at $5 corn but now there is hesitancy tied to weather and fertilizer concerns.

“So people are very hesitant to sell it and if that farmer’s not there to sell against that spec money coming in that will allow this market to move higher,” he says.

Wheat Market High In?
The wheat market saw some recovery on Friday but has corrected off the two year highs hit on Wednesday in both winter wheat classes.

So it the top in?

McCormick says, “Right now I would argue it’s a little bit more of a profit taking week. Remember, we wrapped up the week here just on Thursday. The market was way, way technically overbought, a little bit of a correction. The corn wheat spread was out of whack as well. The other thing maybe generated a little bit of profit taking and generated some selling potentially was we are importing wheat from Poland, I believe, which shows you the price of our wheat has gotten so high that you can make it comparable to bring in competition. That will limit the upside momentum.”

However, he doesn’t think the weather story is over.

“We’ve still got a long way to go. There’s not a lot of rain in the forecast. I’ve had clients that are still trying to adjust for the losses they think
they had due to the severe frost damage that they had here a week, 10 days ago. We’ve got more cold weather coming in. I’m not completely convinced that this wheat market is done with going up,” he says.

Wheat Production Losses
How much of the hard red winter wheat crop has been lost? Some estimates are as high as 200 million bushels.

McCormick says, “I would argue somewhere around 200 million on the low and maybe 300 million on the high end. Now, I know that’s a lot. But remember, we did have a big crop a year ago. So the overall supply is still relatively comfortable. That’s part of the debate of the market right now and that’s why we may not have put the top in because we just don’t know.”

He thinks USDA will make some of that adjustment in the May 12 WASDE in the first balance sheet for new crop.

Cattle Make Record Highs Then Fall
The cattle market made new contract and record highs in both live and feeder cattle futures on Friday, then ended lower.

So was that just some profit taking or the talks that packers were going to start kill cuts next week?

“I think kill cuts are part of it, but I think a lot of it was profit taking. And we had one heck of a move higher. I think we rallied $15 in roughly six days or something like that. Just one heck of a strong move. And I think some people decided, hey, they want to take some money off the table
right now. I mean, we know the story, Michelle, the cattle supply continues to be incredibly tight. We’re also moving into a time of year where the demand tends to ramp up as you go into the spring and summer barbecue grilling season,” he explains.

The key will be if the consumer is willing to pay the higher prices for beef with the spike in gas prices.

“We are in a different situation than we were last time prices were up. You have gasoline prices here outside of the Chicago suburbs trading at $5, outside of Detroit at $6. So, the question now is how much can the consumer take?”

And will they trade down to cheaper proteins.

Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies Case

The hog market was down Thursday and Friday with the first case of pseudorabies in a small commercial hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

The market was pricing in the uncertainty but how low will it go?

McCormick says he thinks the low is close. “Usually it takes one to three days to price in these negative headlines. Like you said, we’ve heard it a couple of days ago. So hopefully we’re close. It was definitely disappointing. Like you said, we haven’t had a case like this in 2004. So getting that headline definitely was a surprise to the market. And, you know, kind of a knee jerk reaction you get when you get these surprise stories.”

Cattle Futures Hit Record Highs, Are $400 Feeders Next? Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies

Fri, 01 May 2026 16:06:07 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans higher Friday, with hogs lower.

Feeders Hit Record Highs, How High Will Prices Go?
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday’s open and quickly moved into record high territory.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs.

Feeder are back as the leaders in the complex but how high will prices go now that prices are back up into record highs?

He says, “It does feel like, okay, live cattle had already made their contract highs. Feeders were next. So, what numbers can we grab? I’ve heard the $380. I’ve heard the $390. I’ve heard the $400. We’re all just reaching, making up numbers that we can. We’ve already seen eight weights spring $400 in sale barns in the North. So it’s not something out of the ordinary that can’t happen. So once we bust through, it feels like, yeah, they have the legs to do it.”

He stresses that this could be the last higher push for a while.

“We’re going to want to be ready for it. I think this is our last charge higher. I guess it’s feeling like we’re getting towards the ninth inning of this. I think we’ve probably heard that a few times, but this is a rally that is going to be the one that’s going to be the one that we’re going to want to sell, I guess. So the chance to get to $4 is there. It really could happen,” he adds.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs First
Live cattle had already hit record highs earlier in the week and took out those levels again on Friday.

The market says some end of month profit taking Thursday but charged back higher Friday morning chasing cash.

Record cash trade broke already on Tuesday at $11, $12 higher than last week at $258 in the North, $255 to $256 in the South.

He says it caught the market by surprise, “I mean, that’s not something that’s normal. And it’s odd because when we were getting bid the $246, And the market wasn’t trading as hot as it was. I think the packers could have just went to $248 and bought all of the show lists and bought all
of the cattle. The fact that they waited another week, was it a shoot, you caught me bluffing move? Or was there somebody that’s really long, this board that wanted it to go higher? I don’t know and we won’t know. But regardless. Big charge higher, $12.”

He says bids started Tuesday at $250 and quickly went to $252 and then to $255.

“I thought that would do it. And then was just surprised when I started hearing that everybody was passing it and then get to $258, which a lot of people did get that and did trade that. You could get it for shorter. You could get two over the August for basis contracts. So, the packer was trying to get as many cattle around them as they can. And I would believe that everything on the show list, if you’re passing that kind of price, I don’t know what you’re waiting for,” he adds.

He hasn’t seen anything like it since 2014 but it was a big inventory grab and packers bought for delayed delivery as well.

Packers Buy Ahead of Kill Cuts
Packers were aggressively getting inventory as they are talking about kill cuts starting next week.

“Just hearing that there’s some majors that are going to start kill cuts next week, start to slow down the chain. And I mean, it’s just, it’s how tight we are. In this cattle industry, we’re, you know, 8% down, 8 to 9% down on steer to heifer slaughter this year. Cow slaughter is way down. Dairy cow slaughter is down. It’s just there’s still a shortage. So this last little push is all on supply, in my opinion. And I think that’s how the packer is trying to manage it,” he explains.

He says they are cutting kills to get boxed beef to move higher and improve their margins and the industry is still down a plant from a strike.

How High Will Live Cattle Futures Run?
Live cattle have continued to push into record high areas but how high will prices go?

Varilek says it is hard to even project because there are no technical areas on the charts to even compare to now.

“You’re up in new territory. You’re just grabbing, you know whatever number comes to your mind somebody wants to say a really high number so they can get remembered. I would rather try to do you guys some good rather than just make up a number up high and try to throw it to you that’s just that’s all made up,” he adds.

But he does say it depends not just on supply but demand.

“For me it’s just that this demand is going to have to pick up if we’re going to keep these live cattle running through and that’s the part that’s seeming to be just a little bit lacking. Seeing mixed feelings on what these steak cuts are doing. You know, the ribeye rolls are down. Usually we’re trying to, you know, see how high we can get those or how much a consumer is going to pay for them this time of year in the red hot grilling season, Mother’s Day weekend coming up and we’re actually dropping them a little bit. So I don’t like that,” he further explains.

Plus, he says with energy prices soaring it is hitting consumer pocketbooks which could also ratchet back demand.

Hogs Fall on Iowa Pseudorabies Case
Lean hog futures were down on Thursday and again Friday with the uncertainty tied to the first case of pseudorabies in a hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

“So it’s five boars that were shipped, you know, were. tested positive and some were shipped from Texas to Iowa. So sounding like it was show pigs, not sure. Can’t totally confirm that, but that would make sense on how that happened,” he says.

However, the disease is manageable according to Varilek.

“So we have vaccination capabilities already, protocol in place. So, for me it’s okay I think we’re going to be able to eradicate this once again and make this a short-lived kind of a worry here because it it is something that that’s real and I mean it’s something that can have you know
they could be dead within 48 to 72 hours. Hogs are a great host likely mixed with some feral hogs so it is around.”

Is it Bullish or Bearish?
Varilek says it does severely cut production which takes supply off the market which is bullish.

However, it is still a market uncertainty.

“So uncertainty is always bearish. Packers are trying to note some certain timeframes where they would kill hogs with pseudo rabies. So they were still entering, you know. you know, the meat supply. We weren’t worried about it back then. So because they had windows where you could slaughter those hogs. So a lot to digest here real fast. Everybody’s Googling pseudorabies and trying to learn as much as they can here real fast,” he adds.

Nov Soybeans Hit Contract Highs, Corn Also Higher
Corn and soybeans were higher early with November soybeans making new contract highs.

Varilek soybeans are following the new contract highs in bean oil.

“That seems to be the biggest thing, just the energy is staying so strong. And that’s making a lot of the headlines, the war. and how high crude oil is. So, I think that those markets are starting to respect that. I mean from a production side yeah you said more acres we’re seeing a little bit of replant we’ve got some frost. Which usually those rallies that are based off of frost and replant those are rallies that are meant to be sold. But I don’t think that that’s all of this I do think it’s energy,” he states.

Can Dec Corn Get Above $5?
Corn is also higher on the biofuels push with strong ethanol margins and profits.

With $100 crude oil corn could stay supported for a while and chew through some of the large ending stocks.

So will Dec corn get above $5?

Varilek says, “So we’ve got a bar right there, $5. We’ve seen it fail there a few times. Now I think if you just poke through it. I think you’re going to get some follow through strength on it just because it’s been such a number. Oh, that looks easy. Just sell it right below five bucks here and let it break. But those triple tops never hold, they kind of say. So I feel like we’re going to be able to get through it and might get some follow
through.”

He adds that the funds are long corn and the news may finally be good enough to rally the corn and grain markets.

Corn and Wheat Pause on Profit Taking: November Soybeans Hit New Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 21:41:45 GMT

Grain markets ended mostly lower except new crop soybeans, cattle were mixed with hogs lower.

Corn and Wheat Take a Breather
Corn and wheat both ended lower on Thursday.

Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says wheat made new highs on Wednesday and was overbought and due for a correction.

Corn made new highs for the move in the overnight session before seeing some pressure from the lower wheat market and profit taking as it was end of the month, plus the start of the delivery period for May contracts.

“I think there was a lot of that definitely at play with the session here to obviously to finish the month. We know the funds have definitely been buyers here again. So seeing them take some profits here after a really strong move is good to see as long as we’re holding support. And so far that seems to be the case. We did have some healthy retracement levels tested during the session. But so far we haven’t seen any meaningful changes fundamentally. And I think that’s going to keep support here under the whole grain complex,” she explains.

The crude oil market also corrected after spiking in the overnight session which may have weighed on corn and wheat as well.

She says, “Yes, crude had losses today too, but there too, we had a very strong overnight session and pushed to some new highs for the move.”

Corrections Are Healthy
She says the corrections in corn and especially wheat are healthy.

“We can’t go in a steep climb forever. You’re going to have to have pullbacks. And honestly, just after the beginning of this week, or even looking back the past three weeks, we’ve had some phenomenal rallies. Wheat, for instance, rallying over $1 in most contracts across all three exchanges. So having a first pullback here, you know, with some double digits is actually healthy for the market. And again, we haven’t
seen anything fundamentally change the story here today. Makes me think it’s more technical,” she adds.

Farmer Selling
With the big run up in prices there was likely some farmer selling as well.

Thompson says she hopes farmers took advantage of the rally to do some pricing.

“We’ve been definitely pushing to be making some sales, especially on a strong run that’s, again, a lot of weather and momentum traded. So it always makes you a little leery, especially this time of year. There is risk ahead, don’t get me wrong, but you’ve got to be rewarding the market when we’re getting rallies and strong moves to some new highs, of course, that producers haven’t seen for a couple of years,” she states.

Weather Change?
There was also some rains in the forecast for HRW wheat areas like Texas. In the past those rains have been disappointing and if the pattern stays the same wheat could add back weather premium according to Thompson.

Plus, she says it may be too late for the rain to help some areas.

“Yeah, at this point, I think a lot of the damage has been done. I’ve talked to producers down there. I’ve also talked to some custom harvesters who’ve been moving or trying to talk to clients who’ve been all the way down to Texas. And unfortunately, one person even commented that they weren’t able to get any farms that were willing to book for wheat anywhere South of South Dakota. So I think that there’s definitely some production issues there,” she says.

There is some replanting taking place but with 34% of the U.S. crop heading it is going to be too late for rain to make a difference in her opinion.

How Big Are the Production Losses?
So are all of the losses priced into the market and what production cuts could be expected?

Thompson says, “Well, that’s the million dollar question is where is final production going to be? But ultimately, the market’s pricing in where these production losses are going to be. And ultimately, it depends what the USDA does. We know they’re kind of notorious for kicking that can down the road. So it could take a couple months before we really start seeing what production is going to be like. And it probably will wait
until we get further into harvest. So end of May, beginning of June, when we normally see winter wheat starting to harvest that we start really building something here on this market.”

She reiterated that wheat markets have a history of going further in extreme times than a lot of people would think.

“And I think we’re in that environment now where we could see prices continue to spike higher.”

Spring Wheat Planting Slow
The spring wheat market was down from the contract highs hit on Wednesday.

Prices have finally moved above $7 and hopefully are profitable enough to entice farmers in the North to continue to plant.

But is the market concerned about low acreage or yields?

“A fair question. You know, South of me, you don’t have to go very far an hour closer to Fargo. And there are guys who are already done planting spring wheat, getting beets in the ground. And then up in my area, just an hour North and beyond, there isn’t any real equipment moving. We really haven’t turned anything yet. And even this morning, we had snowflakes falling in the area. So spring isn’t exactly here yet. And that’s, you know, just keeping things a little bit at bay,” she says.

But it is still early and so she thinks the intended acres will get planted but none beyond that especially with higher fertilizer prices.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says any farmers that have booked fertilizer are more likely to use it on corn acres instead of wheat.

Many industry analysts believe corn acres are dropping but Thompson thinks in the North the acres will be close to intentions.

“A lot of guys booked fertilizer early. Talking with producers where I think those acres are kind of locked in I don’t foresee a big switch coming from our area. I think a lot of guys are intending to plant acres again, just based on what they produced last year. They had a very good season. So I think guys are really going to try and get the corn in the ground, especially if they have the fertilizer booked. If they don’t, might be a different story case by case. But I do think that we’re going to get a lot of the corn going in the ground this year,” she adds.

$5 Dec Corn
With a cut in acres and high fertilizer prices the December corn is flirting with $5. Will it get above that level?

She is optimistic it will for several reasons.

“You know, demand has been very strong for corn. And I know we’re starting to talk about the U.S. growing season and not really seeing, you know, a lot of risk there yet necessarily. I mean, planting pace is going good. Conditions are going to be around the corner here and there’s no hiccups. But we also have to remember South America is a big one right now. And over the next couple of weeks, a lot of their top producing areas further north are going to be starting to go into a dry and hot season. And I think that could have more of an impact on the global corn market, especially with ending stocks at 10-year lows, stocks to use ratio at 10-year lows. We can’t afford a problem. And of course, we have the growing season ahead here yet. So to see the risk appetite in the grains that we have right now, I think it definitely leaves the door open,” she says.

Technically if Dec corn can get about $5.03 she thinks there is a good chance to go to $5.25.

Soybeans End Mixed But Off Lows
Soybeans were under pressure early but did come back with the rally to new contract highs in bean oil even though crude oil reversed lower.

She says a biofuel report show an increase in usage which helped push bean oil.

“So I think that the demand on the oil side could step up some more. But ultimately, that’s what’s leading the market. I mean, we hit three and a half year highs today, and that certainly helps the idea for soybeans. And that complex is really split. It’s obviously a product market. We’ve been following meal for the last couple of weeks. Now it seems like it’s switching over to the oil side. And oil, when that’s leading, can definitely create volatility. So I expect that we’re going to stay range bound here unless soy oil can really kick it into another gear.”

Soybeans Attempt Chart Breakout
The soybean market attempted to break out of its sideways trading range and got above $12 but could not close above that level.

November soybeans made a new high but then closed back under that level.

She says, “It’s really good to see the market really probing those resistance levels and really trying to break through them. But until we can get a close above $12 or above in July, you know, $11.75 in November, it makes it really difficult. You know, the market ultimately is still looking for a catalyst. We have supportive elements there. They’ve been there for a while and they’re keeping us at the top of the range, but the market clearly wants more to get there. So it’ll be interesting to see as we go forward.”

China Deal or Crush?
The one catalyst the market may be waiting for is the results of the China meeting on May 14 and 15 as record crush alone has not been able to get the market above current trading ranges.

“Crush margins remain very strong. So, I think domestically we’re definitely set up and we’ve seen that shift we’ve been talking about it here for several months that you know soybeans used to be a dominantly export market and we’re really starting to see it shift to the product side and so to see that strength build I think it’s just a switch happening within the complex and soybeans are obviously reacting to it and I think it does give us a very good floor under soybeans,” she further explains.

Live Cattle Consolidate
Live cattle futures were mostly lower after hitting record highs on Wednesday on the heels of record cash.

She chalks it up to month end profit taking similar to the grain markets.

“We’ve had a healthy run you’re gonna have to have healthy pullbacks too. It’s good for the market so we’re obviously going to be trying to find support here grains as well same with the livestock just finding where that level of support is going to be where buyers are going to step back in and I think that’s the environment we’re in across the board,” she says.

Funds have been eager to buy on breaks which should also keep the market supported.

Grain and Cattle Futures Pause on Profit After Some Hit Fresh Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:55:48 GMT

Grain and livestock markets are mostly lower early Thursday.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets are taking a pause on Thursday after some new highs for the move overnight in July corn. Plus, 22 month highs Wednesday in both winter wheat classes and new contract highs in bean oil, December corn and hard red spring wheat.

Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says it’s end of the month, so he chalks this up to some routine profit taking and farmer selling.

“You saw with the new highs in the corn market, a lot of new farmers selling, just cleaning up some old crop stuff, but probably a little bit bigger movement on the new crop as we just got fractionally close to $5 December futures. That’s the highest level we could have sold to date on the December contract,” he explains.

Markets Eye Crude Oil
The markets are also watching the movement in crude oil, which was sharply higher on Thursday and overnight with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

Crude oil backed off and pushed slightly lower early Thursday on end of month profit taking and Nellinger thinks that may have trimmed gains in the grain markets as well.

“We’ve had crude oil really screaming higher, got north of $110. It reversed overnight and is back a couple dollars lower. And so I think all of that is kind of a little bit of a headwind here, but it’s not like it’s aggressive selling yet. Just kind of a normal correction lower. I don’t think it’s anything out of the ordinary,” he says.

Wheat Rally Over?
The wheat market was overbought and do for a correction plus it is first notice day for May contracts and Nellinger says there were some deliveries in Kansas City wheat.

“There’s an old saying on the Chicago Board of Trade grain floor from way back when, buy first notice day. I don’t know if that’s going to hold true today. Kansas City wheat had some deliveries on that May contract. A little bit shocking. You know, sometimes when you get to first notice day, the commercials really kind of start playing a high-stakes poker game, trying to, you know, sift each other out and figure out who’s got the ace in their pocket. And so I think that commercial delivery in the Kansas City May contract this morning had a little bit of a negative tone to it. After a big run into the month, good reason to pull back a little bit.”

There are also rain chances for Texas and that may have also caused funds to take some profits.

However, Nellinger doesn’t think the lower production concerns are priced in yet.

“We’ve likely priced in a lot of the multi-week crop condition decline. But to your point, we don’t know what the ultimate yields are. There’s a lot of people saying, hey, rains don’t matter at this point. We’re too far gone on yields. We may even abandon these acres and not get harvested. So we know there’s damage, but sometimes you have to wait to get into harvest to figure out really what is there. But certainly rain in the forecast, even if it’s a small chance, you know, is not immediately bullish. But likely we’ve dialed in a lot of a lot of bullishness with yield pullbacks. But we won’t know till harvest the ultimate result there,” he says.

Frost Concerns
There are also forecasts for cold temperatures and some frost in some areas of the wheat belt as far South as Nebraska.

Some of the corn and soybeans that have been planted may also be suseptible.

“Yeah, I think on the eastern Corn Belt side, there certainly would be. Again, I don’t think it’s a tremendous amount of acres, but we’re far enough long on the production cycle there that a hard freeze now, once we’re about to turn the calendar here to May, certainly could nip a little bit of wheat. It’s not the perfect time for a frost. We’re far enough along in the development that it could hurt, but I think the frost line is going to be far enough north. probably going to be out of that main wheat growing area in the Eastern Corn Belt here,” he adds.

Does Corn Take Out $5?
December corn got just a tick from $5 on Thursday as it made new contract highs as it has been getting help from the wheat market and the run up in energy prices.

However, if the wheat market rally is over does corn have enough of it’s own story to take out $5?

Nellinger thinks so. “You know, we’re coming into the timeframe here. First part of May, we’re typically put in a spring high. I think everybody’s kind of watching that. And everyone’s asking that same question, Michelle. I think some of it depends on crude oil. You know, crude oil went very quickly from $90 a barrel to north of $110 a barrel. The world took notice of that. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. So I think some of it depends on what happens the next 10 days, two weeks on crude oil prices,” he says.

The May crop report is also coming up and the market may need demand confirmation from USDA on corn and beans to keep going, but he’s not ruling it out.

“I wouldn’t put it past this to get north of $5 on Dec corn. I don’t know if it’s dramatically north of there as there’s going to be a lot of farmer selling on a push north of $5,” he adds.

Fertilizer Story for 2026 or 2027?
Still with high fertilizer prices and some farmers unable to get supplies there is talk of lower corn acreage for 2026 but is this more of a 2027 story?

He says, “I think it’s both. I’m getting a sense of that as well. And I think that’s maybe drawn some kind of outside equity money in or money off the sidelines kind of as an investment into grains. I get this sense that there’s a narrative across the world of potential food shortages, yield losses due to lack of availability or rationing of nitrogen due to high prices. I think it’s yet to be seen. It’s certainly not something that’s bearish.”

It will impact the Southern Hemisphere, Brazil and Argentina in particular according to Nellinger.

“We have some issues brewing here. So I think it is a story. It’s not going to go away anytime soon,” he says.

Basis Improvement on Corn
Even with the higher futures prices on corn the basis has also improved which is perplexing to Nellinger.

He says, “Yes, you can argue that producers were in the field doing field work, some early planning in the Southern portions. But that basis improvement started even before they got in the field. So surprisingly, over here in the Eastern Corn Belt, things look relatively tight. I don’t think there’s a lot of old crop corn left. Basis has improved. Demand’s good. But in the Northwest Corn Belt, I don’t think the basis has improved as much.”

Export demand may be part of the reason and weekly sales were strong at nearly 63 million bu. again on Thursday.

“Still running, what, 2%, 3% ahead of the pace that the USDA has, and that’s a massive number to begin with. So there has been no slowdown yet,” he says.

High crude oil prices have ethanol margins strong and even with a smaller cattle herd he says producers are feeding to much heavier weights.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed ethanol production was down 31,000 barrels per day, but it was because of routine maintenance.

E15 Possible?
The House passed the farm bill without the E15 amendment but is looking for an alternative to get it passed yet this week before Congress goes on recess until May 12.

How big of demand push will that be for corn?

Nellinger says it will help but it won’t shoot prices higher.

“Unless it’s a mandatory, you know, a mandated thing that we’re going to use X percent. If it’s voluntary, it will help, but probably not to the massive bullish extent that maybe people hope for,” was his opinion.

Soybeans Retrace But Still Sideways
Soybeans are easing as well on Thursday with the rest of the grain complex and seeing some end of month positioning.

However, the soybean oil rallying to new contract highs on Thursday has been supportive as well as hopes for a China deal.

He says, “There’s a lot of optimism that these mid-May China-U.S. trade talks are going to immediately produce large Chinese bean purchases. Not sure if I’m in that camp, but it’s going to hold the bean market fairly firm on breaks in here for a couple of weeks. And you mentioned bean oil. We’ve been hitting new contract highs there again following crude oil.”

Is Bean Oil Close to a Top?
So is bean oil getting overpriced or is it putting in a top?

Nellinger says the big key is when is the Strait of Hormuz going to open and when is oil going to start flowing.

“Crush margins are near record. And so crush demand domestically is just through the roof. And that’s helping bean demand,” he says.

Cattle Consolidate Off Record Highs
Live cattle futures hit record highs on Thursday following record cash trade.

However, Nellinger says they are due for a correction especially as it is end of the month.

“The speed that we went up, yeah, the cash market was massively strong, way better than expected. Probably due for a break in here. I’m not so sure that the packers didn’t get long and then goose the cash market. They’ve been known to do that, and then they take profits immediately after that. So no reason we’ve got to break $20 barring some sort of a Black Swan news event but we are probably overextended and need a little bit of a break here to correct the overbought condition,” he says.

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged For Now?
The Fed left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of their April meeting but the surprise was there were four dissenting votes giving the indication that additional rate cuts are off the table for 2026.

In fact if energy prices stay high with the ongoing war and inflation continues to flair is it possible the Fed could have to raise rates this year?

Nellinger says its possible, “Yeah, I think you would have to, you know, and you may have to anyway. I think that the the $100 plus crude oil is going to take several months to sift through the world economy. So we haven’t even seen some of the effects of that on prices. Think about everything that moves with diesel trains, automobiles, planes, barges, you name it. it is a big deal so the longer we stay at or above $100 I think the more of an argument they have to raise rates to kind of stem inflation a little bit,” he adds.