Rough Rice Commodity Markets, Prices & Futures

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Crop: Corn, Soybeans See Surprises

Tue, 12 May 2026 22:07:23 GMT

Grains ended higher Tuesday with limit up moves in winter wheat, livestock were mostly lower.

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Production
Both classes of winter wheat ended limit up on the day as USDA shocked the market with their aggressive production cuts in the May WASDE according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, StoneX.

USDA lowered wheat yield by 5.8 bu. per acre to 47.5 bu. and lowered all wheat production to 1.561 billion bu. which is below last year by 424 million bu. and the smallest crop since 1972.

Total winter wheat production was pegged at 1.048 billion bu. down 25% from 2025 drug down by a 36% cut to the hard red winter wheat crop.

He thinks production could be cut even further in the future. “I think we’ve seen quite a bit of deterioration here over the last couple of weeks. These are May 1 numbers, so we may see a little bit lower number. Industry tour this week should give us a bigger idea on that.”

Plus, his experience is when USDA makes a big jump on its first estimate, that typically means that there could be more moves coming. “Because they tend to be fairly conservative and don’t want to overshoot. They don’t like correcting back the other way.”

Abandonment is the Key
Suderman says the key is the percent abandonment of winter wheat acres.

“Now, the USDA’s abandonment number is pretty close to what we modeled, but how might high diesel prices affect that? Because as diesel prices increase, they increase the cost of running the combine over those acres, raising the break-even level at which you decide, is it worth actually taking the combine into the field? So we may push that abandonment a little bit higher.”

He thinks for Kansas a 17% abandonment rate is pretty reasonable but it may be much higher in Texas and Oklahoma, maybe Colorado than it will be elsewhere.

How High Do Wheat Prices Rally?
Hard red winter wheat made new highs on Tuesday and closed limit up but how high will prices run? Can futures get above $7.50?

Suderman explains, “Well, the interesting thing about wheat is it doesn’t necessarily trade supply and demand fundamentals so much as it trades headlines and emotions. We saw back in 2010 when there were headlines of fires and drought-stricken Russia, and we doubled the price of Chicago wheat in five weeks and then it came collapsing down. We realized, oh, we traded that story. The fundamentals aren’t that tight after all. So you can just run with emotions and the funds can go with it.”

Plus, he says funds can take wheat prices too far in either direction. “If you get a headline out of Iran saying the war is over type of a thing, you could see a collapse of crude oil really suck the air out of these grain and oil seed markets as well.”

Global Wheat Stocks Fall
Global wheat stocks also fell 4.2 MMT to 275 MMT but could those supplies shrink further with the talk of lower production and yield due to higher fertilizer prices and lower use?

“I think some of it comes down to do we actually see reductions in fertilizer application. One of the things we are seeing is a reduction in area because of high fertilizer and fuel prices. As we go into Argentina and Australia in the Southern hemisphere, we’re there in the middle of planting now. It looks like a 5% to 6% reduction in area.”

Corn Ending Stocks Down Slightly
USDA lowered corn production nearly 1 billion bu. to just under 16 billion bu.

New crop ending stocks were estimated at 1.957 billion bu. which is down 185 million bu. from last season and under the psychological 2.0 billion bu. mark. Still it was above trade estimates.

Suderman says his estimate was lower than that, “I was at 1.833 billion bushels. So I do think there’s some downside to this. But regardless, once you slip below 1.5 billion, that’s when the market starts caring, it wouldn’t take much of a yield drop in order to do that with this acreage.
I do think there’s a chance that we could see a little bit more of an acreage shift from corn to soybeans, maybe another million acres or so, helping to bring that down,”

He also thinks exports could get stronger moving ahead unless Brazil’s crop is further increased and cut U.S. exports.

Global Corn Stocks Fall
The bigger bullish factor is the huge draw down in global supplies in the new crop marketing year.

USDA estimates 277.5 MMT carryout for 2026-27 which is down 19.4 MMT from last season and could continue to decline next year.

“I think this is a pattern that we’re going to see more of the next year is drawing down supplies with high fuel, high fertilizer, increased uses for biofuels. The biofuel story, I think, is one that we’re just starting to tell now, going to use more feedstock,” he explains.

Brazil and Argentina Corn Production Hike
The impressive part was global corn stocks fell despite an increase in the Brazilian and Argentine crop by a total of 10 MMT.

Suderman says, “I think the market’s already priced a lot of that in. USDA just hasn’t put it into its balance sheet yet. So you look at Argentina,
USDA was holding down at 52 million metric tons or far too long. Many private estimates are 64 to 65 million metric tons. I think it’s probably closer to 60 million metric tons. USDA is now at 57. We’re at 58. Brazil could go a little bit higher as well.”

He stresses that Brazil is using a lot more corn for ethanol and is increasing its blend from 30% to 32%.

USDA Cuts Soybean Ending Stocks
USDA lowered old crop ending stocks for soybeans down to 340 million bu. with new crop down to 310 million bu. despite 3.5 million more acres.

Suderman says biofuels demand helped to push the crush figure up to 2.730 billion bushels for 2026-27 and there is a possibility that number could go higher.

“The question is going to be exports. As I said, USDA went up on their exports, so 1.603 billion bushels for exports next year, up 100 million bushels.”

He thinks that’s a stretch. “China only buys about 12 million metric tons. I don’t see them buying the 25 million metric tons because A, these numbers show that we don’t have it and they don’t have the room in their reserve for it. As high prices our beans are relative to Brazil beans, that’s where they would go is in their reserve and they don’t have the room for it.”

So, Suderman predicts China will buy soybeans but 12 MMT or less. “How much less is the question.”

China to Buy Corn and Wheat, Not Soybeans?
USDA in the May WASDE pegged China’s soybean stocks nearly steady, but other crops are expected to see draw downs.

“When you look at their wheat stocks at about a 10-year low, their corn stocks at about 13-year low, could we possibly see wheat and corn in the trade deal rather than all the soybeans everybody’s talking about? I think that’s a real possibility. We should learn that in a couple of days.”

If China only buys 12-13 MMT that is half of what they said they would purchase and that would be a disappointment to the market. So could it weigh on prices?

Suderman says, “I think with a strong biofuel program in the end, we would end up with ending stocks similar to where they are now. And I think domestic demand is what’s really going to be driving it. If they didn’t buy anything, then that would be a problem. If they buy 12 million metric tons, I think that keeps us well balanced in here, particularly with fuel prices staying high, the demand for biofuels.”

He doesn’t expect China to buy cotton as part of the deal because they are able to source those needs from Brazil.

Beef may also be off the table as President Trump wants to keep U.S. prices down especially ahead of the mid term elections.

Cattle Market Fears Imports
The cattle market has been down the last couple of sessions on fears of increased beef imports.

President Trump has backed off his executive order to eliminate the tariff rate quotas on beef imports but the market is not convinced.

He says, “A little over a 26% tariff that Brazil has to pay on what it exports to the United States right now. If you wipe that out, that suddenly drops their beef prices well below where we’re at currently here in the United States and would be expected to significantly increase exports to the United States.”

Suderman says President Trump is focused on bringing down food prices and the CPI data Tuesday did not support that goal.

“We once again saw those food prices being a significant significant contributor to inflation and beef is right at the top of the list there. And so he’s trying to do that ahead of the elections. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that at all,” he says.

Cattle Market Top?
The administration has also announced stepped up efforts on anti-competitive practices with a DOJ investigation of the big four meat packers.

So is that going to top the market like it did back in October of 2025 and cause fund liquidation?

“I’ve been wrong on that so many times this year. I hate to say it again. It certainly does suggest maybe a near-term top. But every time we expect that, we come back to the reality of tight domestic supplies,” he says.

The consumer is still spending, and the data has really been supporting the consumer continuing to spend he says.

” The question is, is how much we are effectively able to increase the supply with those increased imports. We’re already importing record levels. What’s our capacity for further adding to that? Because it looks like the consumer’s going to continue to buy if we can. significantly increases imports. Then we can see those beef prices come down and we start to see the reduction then in the prices for the live cattle.”

The key is cash and after record prices last week for cattle the packers are already paying $260 and $400 already this week.

Grains Rally on War, WASDE, China Meeting: Cattle Hit by Beef Import Fear

Mon, 11 May 2026 21:51:39 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended higher Monday with cattle mostly lower.

Grains Add Risk Premium
Grains markets were higher on Monday adding risk premium tied to the breakdown of the peace talks with Iran over the weekend and higher energy prices.

Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says both sides rejected the deal and so funds were buying and as long as crude oil stays at high prices that will bring in inflationary buying.

“I think you move some of those investors from the equity markets to the grain side, one on inflationary concerns, but two, just saying these things are undervalued. We know we have plenty of supplies at the present time but that could change. But let’s just take some money and put over there. And I think that was really the catalyst that it got started. Now we got to see what it takes to get it to go further,” he explains.

Big News Week....Including China Summit
The other factor that is moving the grain markets and bringing in fund buying is optimism about ag purchases as part of this week’s China summit between President Trump and President Xi.

Soybeans have been adding premium heading into the meeting according to Boddicker. “The market always gets excited when President Xi and President Trump are going to get together, knowing great things are going to happen, but we’ll see if it does or not. You know, in the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz closed that might be more of an incentive for China to come in and do some things with the U.S. to try to get some concessions and get that opened back up.”

How Much China Business Priced Into Soybeans?
But how much of the soybean purchase agreements with China is already priced into the soybean market?

Boddicker says, “One would have to think that most of it is. We are here in the seasonal time, on the beans where you put some highs in, but nothing saying you couldn’t have. But when you have these types of summits most of it’s priced in ahead of time, unless there’s some really huge surprise that you’re not thinking of.”

China Buying Other Ag Goods?
The other key is whether or not China buys other ag products beyond soybeans as the grain market is already pricing some of that in as well.

“One ship can keep all afloat sometimes, and I think that’s helping. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if China did some corn and some wheat in here, but time will tell if they do,” he adds.

Running Into Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans may have stalled out though running into chart resistance on Monday.

Could the market break above those recent highs with some good news from China?

Boddicker says, “I think it’s a possibility. You know, if I were a producer and I didn’t have much done on new crop beans somewhere from here to $12, I would be pricing somewhere whether that be in the cash or in the futures. If I did futures, if I started going back over $12 or $12.60 or so. I’d probably exit that and see where it went because I’d have a breakout at that point. But I think it’s not a bad area to do some things.”

July corn is also nearing the double top from last week at $4.78 1/2 but Boddicker thinks that mark could be retested.

“I think it’s a possibility. After hitting chart resistance you really thought this thing could break back to $4.50 to $4.60 and you went to $4.61, which I think was great support. And that’s a 25, 26 cent break, which would be about right,” he says.

Boddicker thinks the corn market needs to get a supply shock from weather or a demand shock from the China summit to get through overhead resistance.

He probably needs some news to get going in here with the supplies we got to do, whether that’s weather or something out of the China summit in here.

May WASDE Positioning
The grain market was also gearing up for the May WASDE with little change expected in the old crop balance sheets.

The focus will be on the first new crop estimates of the season and the trade is anticipating soybean production to be up 183 million bu. from last year at 4.445 billion bu. due to a 3.5 million acre increase in acreage. Yet, the ending stocks are estimated to be up only 19 million bu. from last year at 364 million.

Corn production could be down over 1 billion bu. from last year with acreage cut nearly 3.5 million against a trendline yield of 183 bu. That brings ending stocks down nearly 200 million bu. to 1.933 billion bu.

Boddicker says that is largely priced into the corn market.

Winter wheat production is expected to fall 200 to 250 million bushels below last year with ending stocks down to 833 million bu.

Boddicker says that is reasonable with the problems in the hard red winter wheat crop.

“I think you get a lot of areas that are dry and that wheat’s really gotten hurt. The next two or three weeks, as you know, is going to be critical. But just where it goes from this point, I’m
not sure. But I think there could be some surprises there. But whether they’re going to bring it out now or later, time will tell us,” he says.

Kansas Wheat Quality Tour
The size of the Kansas wheat crop will at least be determined by scouts on this week’s Wheat Quality Tour but will it move the market?

Boddicker says, “The trade has a lot of that priced in with looking at bad conditions that we’ve seen. We got a little improvement last Monday on the report but could they come back and say, hey, there’s more acres that we’re going to destroy here. That could be the real surprise.”

Exports and Inspections
The corn market saw flash sales on Monday morning of 15 million bu. of corn to Mexico, split between old and new crop. South Korea also bought 5.8 million bu. of corn.

Weekly export inspections were strong on corn at 66.6 million bu. with the year to date total up 30% from last year.

Soybeans export inspection were at 24.1 million bu. which are solid for this time of year, but the total is still 23% below last year.

Wheat export inspections were 18.8 million bu. and now total 840 million bu. which is up 13%.

Boddicker says that data was mostly supportive and reflects a change in attitude by many countries that are stockpiling grain.

“A few months ago, I think we can go back and say that we changed the attitude of that importer to say, I’m no longer going to buy hand to mouth. I better put something in reserve just in case more gets out of hand with the American and Iranian war and other things going on in the world,” he explains.

Cattle Market Hit by Beef Import Hike
Cattle futures were mostly lower except for nearby contracts reversing the strong opening.

The market reacted to President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations to curb record high beef prices.

Boddicker says, “What can break the camels back? When President Trump came out and said that he’s going to drop the tariffs on Brazilian beef and other countries to get more beef in the U.S.”

He says this caused funds and algorithm traders to again liquidate on concerns that the government is getting involved in trying to get beef prices down at the grocery store.

“We looked at preliminary open interest numbers from the CME this morning were looking like we were down 2,100 contracts, which would have meant long liquidation on Friday on the sell-off. And then when they came up with final numbers, it was a plus 3,900. Again, a 6,000 contract swing indicating there was more new selling on Friday. Something wreaks in Denmark on that much of discrimination or discrepancy between those reports,” he adds.

Cattle Market Topping Action?
However, it is hard to call a top in this type of market he says.

“We’ve seen this action before and every time it’s come back. When we look at some cyclical things, you’re looking for some intermediate term highs in both feeder cattle and fat cattle in May. So could we have done that already? We could. I think only time is going to answer it. But this market, as we all know, is fundamentally is strong but is still headline driven,” he says.

The market also failed to rally on record cash trade which topped at $260 in the North and don’t forget the DOJ probe announcement on Friday.

“The only thing that bugs me on that is what are we going to find out? We’re just getting settlements from the last DOJ probe. What are we going to do different this time than we did last time?”

Hog Bounce
Lean hog futures bounced off the new contract lows scored on Friday. So was this just a one day pop?

Boddicker says he was encouraged the summer months at least held chart support after testing it the last several sessions and it came as cattle futures fell.

Can the continue to market recover?

He says, “It feels like we maybe have the high end for the year but a $5, $6 rally would not be unexpected,”

Soybean Gall Midge Emerges As Top-Tier Threat

Mon, 11 May 2026 20:19:03 GMT

Soybean gall midge is no longer just a curiosity or annoyance for many Midwest farmers. The pest is chewing into yield and profitability for soybean growers across parts of at least seven states – Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota.

Iowa State University Entomologist Erin Hodgson reports the pest’s footprint is significant, present in at least 42% of the 45.4 million acres of soybeans farmers harvested across the seven states in 2025.

“At least 19 million soybean acres are potentially impacted by this pest,” Hodgson says, noting that the pest continues to spread. Eight new counties were confirmed in 2025, with five of those being in Iowa .

According to a recent farmer survey led by University of Nebraska Entomologist Doug Golick, the pest has become a major threat in parts of Nebraska. “In the last year or two, soybean gall midge is approaching as near high of concern as herbicide-resistant weeds for survey respondents,” Golick says.

Since 2018, the soybean gall midge has spread to 185 total counties in seven states, including five new counties in Iowa this past year, according to Erin Hodgson, Iowa State University Extension entomologist and professor.

(Erin Hodgson)

Look For Small Orange Or White Larvae

Damage from the insect starts at the base of the soybean plants, largely out of sight. Adult midges emerge from the ground in May and June, then seek out tiny fissures in young soybean plants near the soil line to lay eggs, according to Thales Rodrigues da Silva, a master’s student at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

The larvae cause severe, localized yield losses from 20% to 100% loss along field edges and 17% to 50% reductions in entire fields average under heavy infestation, according to University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Extension. The larvae – small, orange worm-like pests – feed inside the base of the stem, causing plants to wither, die, and lodge (break), with damages sometimes extending 100+ feet into fields. Scouting for the pest should occur after the second trifoliate (V2) growth stage, according to the Crop Protection Network.

This damage in a soybean plant at the soil level shows the result of soybean gall midge larvae feeding.

(University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension)

Because the pest often feeds along field edges, the damage in affected plants is often mistaken for issues caused by compaction or herbicide injury, according to Stine Seed Company .

To confirm the pest’s presence, Stine agronomists recommend digging up compromised soybean plants and splitting open the stem. If white or orange larvae are found feeding within the inner layers, growers should check the Soybean Gall Midge Alert Network tracking system to determine whether the pest has been reported in their area. Next, they should contact their local Extension specialist to help confirm the diagnosis and report the finding if their county is not yet documented in their area.

Cultural Practices Show Promise

Unfortunately, there are few strategies to manage and control soybean gall midge, according to Tony Lenz, Stine technical agronomist.
With no labeled, consistently effective in-season insecticide program and no established treatment threshold, researchers are testing cultural and mechanical tactics that might give farmers at least partial relief.

Tillage ahead of planting — a tough sell in no-till systems — shows some promise in reducing early infestations in current-year soybean fields.

“Turns out that disking alone, at least in (our) study… did reduce infestation,” says Justin McMechan an entomologist and associate professor at UNL.

“There’s a significant reduction as we move from no-till to that… where it’s just disked and planted into, and then disking and hilling (a practice used in growing potatoes), which really is effective, because you’re covering up the infestation site,” McMechan adds.

He notes that even subtle changes in seedbed shape may help by covering fissures or altering microclimates at the stem base.

On planters running row cleaners, McMechan says adjustments at field edges might be one of the more accessible tools.

“There are not huge differences, but they are statistically significant,” he adds.

Field edge management has been another area of experimentation, including mowing or managing dense vegetation next to infested fields. Results are mixed, but McMechan says there are situations where mowing modestly cuts pressure.

“Nebraska saw on occasion where mowing would reduce infestation and lead to marginal yield benefit… we’re talking like 6-bushel differences,” he says, adding that weather and nearby corn canopy can override those gains.

There are no insecticides currently available to control soybean gall midge. A combination of cultural practices and mechanical efforts is likely the best option, for now, to stop or slow the pest.

(Justin McMechan)

Scientists Evaluate ‘Out-Of-The-Box’ Practices

Other work by researchers is pushing even further outside the box to find control measures. At UNL, graduate research assistant Kristin Heinrichs Stark is testing whether a biodegradable surface barrier called BioWrap can physically trap larvae in the soil and prevent emergence.

The work is early-stage and raises reasonable questions about cost and field-scale application rates, but it points to the kind of layered, non-chemical tactics Extension researchers say will likely be needed to address the pest.

Even as these cultural and physical strategies are developed, Hodgson reminds farmers that the ag industry still lacks any clear control option once larvae are inside the soybean stem.

“We really don’t have a treatment threshold, or a rescue treatment option at this time,” she says. “We know that the soybean gall midge certainly can cause yield losses, plant death, and that directly relates to yield. But we don’t really have great answers on like, how many plants does it take? How many larvae per plant (causes yield loss)?”

For now, farmers dealing with soybean gall midge are being asked to combine careful field scouting, crop rotation, and targeted cultural tactics to address the pest as the research community races to find answers and close those gaps.

Specialists from three Midwest universities provided the latest updates on soybean gall midge (SGM) this spring in a webinar, available at the link below:

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:32 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

High Stakes: Trump-Xi Summit, WASDE and E15 Set Up Crucial Week for Ag Commodity Markets

Mon, 11 May 2026 10:48:18 GMT

A faltering spring rally for grains and the soy complex may hang in the balance as producers and traders prepare for a week jam-packed with potentially market-moving events.

On Tuesday, USDA will deliver its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will offer the department’s initial outlook for the new crop year.
On Wednesday, the House is slated to vote on long-sought legislation to green-light year-round sales of E15.
What is likely to be the main event, President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China Thursday and Friday, where a meeting with leader Xi Jinping is hoped to bring affirmation that Beijing will follow through on commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and possibly other agricultural goods.

There’s also the Iran war, which in the past week overshadowed individual market fundamentals as a U.S. proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict sparked a crude selloff that dragged grain markets back from recent highs.

Let’s break down what’s at stake:

May WASDE

While the May outlook often sets the initial tone for the new crop year, the timing of the forecast during corn and soybean planting season leaves high potential for changes later in the year, with both acreage and yield still fluid.

Over the past 30 years, on average, USDA’s initial forecast for soybean ending stocks is 78 million bushels higher than the final estimate. For corn, that disparity is even wider at 129 million bushels higher than the initial forecast. With fuel and fertilizer prices rising sharply this spring, that further exacerbates the variability around potential yields as farmers may cut inputs to save costs.

Due to winter wheat already being planted and the agency including survey yield data in this report, the margin of error in ending stocks is smaller and averages 51 million bushels lower than the final.

The May WASDE is generally neutral in terms of the direction it moves the price of row crops based on these trends the past 30 years:

July HRW and SRW wheat futures ended the day of the WASDE release higher 14 times
December corn higher 16 times
November soybeans higher 12 times

In absolute values, the change in price is 11 3/4 cents for July HRW wheat, 10 1/4 cents for July SRW wheat, 7 cents for December corn and 11 1/4 cents for November soybeans. Still, outliers are possible. 2022’s initial forecast sent wheat futures soaring, with KC July wheat rising 69 1/2 cents following the release that compounded on worries of lower production from the Black Sea at that time.

E15

After being once again left on the cutting-room floor during legislative wrangling over the farm bill, E15 legislation is slated for a House vote. Following farm bill passage last month, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson said a vote on standalone legislation would take place on May 13 . High fuel prices driven by the Iran war have intensified bipartisan pressure to pass the bill before the midterm elections, though oil-state opposition remains a hurdle.

It isn’t yet clear a vote will take place. Full passage would bolster biofuel demand at the margin, while a successful House vote would perhaps provide a timely psychological lift for corn futures.

Trump-Xi Summit

The postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting in mid-March sent soybeans into a tailspin , underlining the stakes surrounding the rescheduled summit. Soybean producers want to hear affirmation – from Beijing – that China is prepared to follow through on what the White House has said is a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans per calendar year for the next three years. That’s less than what China was buying before Beijing’s boycott of U.S. purchases that undercut the market last year. China has yet to affirm specific targets.

Soybean exports picked up as China resumed purchases after Trump and Xi struck a one-year trade truce in October, but continue to run behind the pace necessary to hit USDA’s current marketing year projection of 1.54 million bushels.

(Pro Farmer)

The good news is that such a commitment may be low-hanging fruit. What’s more, reports have portrayed Chinese negotiators as open to purchases of an array of agricultural goods, including beef, poultry and non-soybean row crops – in addition to soybeans. Trade watchers say an agreement that would see China buy agricultural goods and aircraft alongside further tariff reductions may be the summit’s most likely outcome, with thornier issues kicked down the road.

A deal could trigger a relief rally, but risks remain. Friction over the Iran war, AI guardrails and Taiwan could make Xi reluctant to commit. Given how sensitive soybeans have been to China-related headlines, a disappointing outcome could quickly rattle the market.

The War and the Market

The nosedive by crude-oil futures this past week dragged corn, wheat and soybeans back from new highs, raising questions about the staying power of a budding spring rally that saw December corn briefly push above the $5 a bushel mark. The coming week will see market participants run a gauntlet of market-moving fundamental events that may end up setting near-term direction.

Soybeans Strong Heading Into China Summit

Sat, 09 May 2026 01:08:38 GMT

For the week July corn was 9 cents lower, December corn was down 5 ¾, July soybeans gained 4 ¾, November soybeans added 6 ¾, July soybean meal was $.40 higher, July bean oil lost 84 points, July soft red winter wheatlost 18 ¾, July hard red winter lost 18 ¾, July hard red spring wheat fell 24.

Strong Week in Soybeans on China Hopes
Soybeans ended sharply higher on Friday and posted higher weekly closes on optimism about the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on May 14-15 in Beijing.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.

In late October, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans for the current year and 25 MMT for the three years following. President Trump followed that up with a social media post on February 4 indicating China would be buying an additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans.

Gulke says Friday’s rally in soybeans was impressive and the technical action for the week was positive as the November contract closed above the March and April highs.

“November took out the March highs early this week, then backed off Wednesday and Thursday, then turned around and went back up again. So, it’s respecting new highs for May. That’s important. If you can stay above the April and March highs like we have and exceed it then you’re probably on to something that’s more long-term. We’ve done that in new crop,” he explains.

July or old crop soybeans filled the gap from the limit down day on March 9 when President Trump announced he was delaying the China summit due to the war in Iran, but could not close above the March high.

He says when a market fails like that it is a concern but if the market is positive enough to close above that gap it’s significant and signals a bigger rally.

So next week will be a pivotal week to see if July soybeans can close above the March high of $12.50 3/4, especially with the big news items hitting the market including the May WASDE and the China summit.

Corn Lower for the Week, Funds Still Long
On the other hand, corn posted lower weekly closes in both the July and December contacts, which is concerning to Gulke.

It may be tied to more acres of corn being planted than what USDA indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report.

Gulke says in talking to his seed dealer, he indicated he had not seen any farmers bring back corn to exchange for soybeans.

“There was a lot of talk about it, but he said nobody really did it in any significance. And so you have a lot of rumors and innuendo, but when you talk to some of the seed corn guys, it wasn’t significant if it was at all.So, apparently, they found inputs,” he states.

Gulke also talked to his fertilizer supplier, who indicated they had enough fertilizer in stock for anyone that did not pre-book.

“They’ll pay more than they would have in October or November but they can get it,” he says, “So, I’m wondering whether things are as bad as the media would have led us to believe. Just because prices got high, does not mean it wasn’t available.”

Funds Long in Corn and Soybeans
According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report the funds are long in both corn and soybeans and added to those positions in the last week.

In the soybean complex the managed money traders have been long for several weeks.

Gulke says, “It’s very impressive. I would have probably bet they stayed neutral maybe even liquidate a little but it looks like they bought into any kind of weakness.They did a huge, huge amount in new crop corn and corn and beans in general.”

Some in the trade media, according to Gulke, will come out Monday saying when traders get this long they need to get out at some time.“And when he gets out, the doors are not going to be big enough to let him out.”

Gulke disagrees.“The large spec is kind of like a hockey player that wants to shoot the puck or watch where he thinks the puck’s going to go and not where it is. And that’s what they’re looking at.They’re opportunists. They’re buying grain or buying stocks or whatever in anticipation of selling it at a higher price.”

So, the funds can keep defending their market longs longer than you think or in the case of wheat funds were short for nearly four years.

“You have the speculator who bets millions and billions on managing money. They’re still long. If you’re heavily negative agriculture, you probably look over your shoulder and say, what am I missing? We’ll find that out later but usually the large spec is smarter than I am, so I watch him pretty close,” he concludes.

For more information you can contact Jerry and info@gulkegroup.com .

Soybeans Lead Grain Recovery Friday on Talk of China Soybean Purchases

Fri, 08 May 2026 21:30:05 GMT

Grains ended higher Friday with cattle lower.

Grains Recover Friday, Follow War Headlines
Grain markets recovered on Friday with crude oil as the hopes for a cease fire and peace deal with Iran started to fade.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week.

“Headlines have been all over the place. We came into the week with crude oil sharply higher, thinking that the blockade that was on from the United States and of course also by Iran was going to be long lived. And the market was even looking and saying that that blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last to the end of summer,” he says.

Grains and a lot of commodities added war premium because of that and then reversed lower on news of a peace deal later in the week.

“When the we saw a mutual letter of understanding, a one pager by President Trump to the Iranians trying to find a way to open the Strait and maybe get to a 30-day negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That gave the market a drop, if you will. And then on Friday, as tensions started to come back up as the U.S. attacked a few tankers, the market added war premiums. So in my mind, war is still the big factor in grain trade. We’ll see how the next week plays out. But next week,

Strait Reopening is Key
The big key is getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Basse is giving that about 33% odds.

“I’ve increased it a little bit because I do believe that there’s pressure on the Iranians as they run out of storage for their crude oil production to maybe get back to the negotiating table,” he says.

He says a forced deal in which the U.S. military and Iran will go back and forth will open it up for short periods of time, otherwise the U.S. may continue the blockade.

“But as you go forward, again, we’ll see how Trump is able to negotiate. And the Iranians at this point are not anxious to get to the negotiating table, which concerns me. But we’ll see how Pakistan really nudges them forward along with the Chinese,” he says.

Corn and Wheat Rally Over?
Without a re-escalation could the corn and wheat rally be over, especially after lower weekly closes?

“Managed money or funds are along about a half million contracts of grain, corn, soybeans, and wheat, it does show the markets put a tremendous amount of war premium in the price. We’ve done some analysis at AgResource. We think it’s about 45 cents on corn, $1.40 on beans, and about 25 cents on wheat in terms of war premium. If that war were to end, that premium comes out. I also believe the markets will be more focused on new crops,” he adds.

So he thinks farmers should be rewarding the market rallies.

Soybeans End Higher on China Purchase Talk
Soybeans led the rally on Friday with the summit coming up May 14 and 15.

Basse says, “The summit is expected to produce maybe some Chinese buying. Rumors from China on Friday had them buying some 12 to 13 million metric tons from the United States. If I combine that with the 12 million tons they bought last November through of, let’s say, the end
of January, that would take us to 25 million metric tons. And remember, back in that November meet, the United States talked about China committing to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. So we’ll see how this all plays out. I do not think that buying 12 or 13 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is all that bullish.”

That’s because it will lead to lower soybean export figures but still the market saw this as demand from China and it got the market moving higher on Friday.

China Summit Deliverables?
So what is the market looking for to keep the China premium built into the soybean market intact?

Basse says, “The USTR and Ambassador Greer has been talking about a board of trade idea. And the board of trade is not in Chicago. It’s a board of trade concept in which the United States would start to sell additional ag commodities to the Chinese under some separate terms. So maybe that includes wheat or corn or beef or other products. And so whether or not Ambassador Greer can get that across the finish line next week will be important. If we broaden commodity mixtures to China, from the United States, that would be more bullish.”

He thinks it will take another summit in November to get that done.

Will China Buy Other Crops?
China has said they want to buy non-soybean row crops though, so could the soybean bulls be disappointed.

He says its entirely possible, “Listen, when we head into these kind of negotiations or summits, it’s all political. And that is something that, you know, as an analyst, we can’t look behind the curtain very far. I am troubled about several things, though. Again, I’d like China to drop its tax on soybeans. It has a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans coming in, a 15% duty on grain. So that needs to end. But on the other side of that, I would be hopeful that maybe we can start to sell some grain to China. and wheat and other meat products. That would just help the U.S. farmer broaden things out.”

He also hopes the two countries can normalize trade with a market-based system.

“Not where presidents Xi or Trump, decide what’s going to happen.”

Global Tariffs Struck Down, Leverage for China?
In additiona, the 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful on Friday. So, does that give China more leverage in these discussions next week?

Basse says, “Oh, it sure does. You know that a 10% tariff was on China. If we remember back to the last meeting that happened back in November, that tariff rate was somewhere just shy of 50%. So the Chinese like to trade. In other words, if they’re going to get a lower tariff, they’ll do something in terms on the buy side. And we saw that with the fentanyl tariffs back in November. If there’s no tariffs on China, which would be the implication of that, that 10% tariff being wiped. out, I wondered what else the United States could provide China. Maybe there’s something on Taiwan. Maybe there’s something elsewhere. But the availability to trade tariffs for China doing something is diminished with this decision that came on.”

He says it’s disappointing that this happened right before the trade summit.

Wheat Topped?
Wheat may have topped but with the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour next week could that shock the market into causing some weather premium to be added?

“I think that we’ll all look to the Kansas tour and the NASS production estimate that comes out on Tuesday as kind of giving us what the probabilities are in terms of how small is small. There’s some of us that see the hard red winter wheat crop down in the 575 to 585 million bushels. If it goes below that, then that will be somewhat bullish,” he explains.

However, he says the world wheat carryover of old and new crop wheat is a near record supply.

“So there’s no shortage of wheat in the world. We just have a shortage of hard red wheat in the Kansas or the Plains. And then the question is, what do U.S. millers do accordingly? But I worry about export demand going forward because we are hearing that Russia is selling wheat
into Mexico. We’re hearing Russia selling wheat into places like Brazil. These are traditional U.S. customers. I hate to see that business being lost to the Russians,” he adds.

He thinks USDA may lower the winter wheat crop between 200 to 225 million bushels with ending stocks dropping 100 to 125 million bushels.

May WASDE Expectations
Will USDA raise corn exports in the May WASDE and lower soybean exports?

“Yeah, I think that’s the popular tone that people want to raise exports a little bit on corn, maybe cut the ethanol estimate because of the inclusion of sorghum in the weekly grinds or monthly grinds. That’s all possible. I think USDA kind of holds pad, if you will, and we don’t see a big change on end stocks. We still stay above 2.1 billion. And then on soybeans, you know, we’re looking at around 340 to 350 million bushels, maybe down 5 to 10 million bushels there. Maybe exports need to be trimmed a little bit in soybeans, but crush numbers need to rise. Wheat won’t change much,” he adds.

For new crop corn ending stocks his estimate is above 2 billion bushels as USDA sticks with trendline yield of 183 bu. Soybeans will also see trendline yield of 53 bu.

The wheat number will change based on the NASS production report of winter wheat.

China export demand is still up in the air. “And a lot of that depends upon the summit on Thursday, Friday. So if I’m USDA, I’m not going to make a big change in Chinese soybean demand just yet.”

The biggest changes could come with USDA raising the Argentinian corn crop, six or seven million metric tons. They also could do the same to Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop could nudge up just a million or two tons, he adds.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures ended lower despite record cash trade. Is that just profit taking or is that a bigger concern?

Basse says, “I believe it’s somewhat of a concern. Seasonally speaking, as we tend to get into the early part of June, excuse me, May, and we normally make a top in the beef market. That top usually corresponds with the Mother’s Day weekend. So coming after that, I expect beef prices to start decline. We also see cash cattle numbers rising, or at least fed cattle numbers rising for the next three or four weeks. Slaughter has been relatively low relative to on-feed estimates over the last four or five weeks. I believe those cattle will now come to market maybe at some heavier weights, and that could cause some easing, if you will, of cash prices.”

But he doesn’t see any end to the longer term bull market in cattle because there is no dramatic expansion in the cattle herd.

“So tightening supplies longer term is still the theme. It’s just that the market could have a correction here,” he adds.

Brazilian Beef Imports
The talk of higher Brazilian beef imports and the DOJ investigation of meat packers may have also spooked the funds.

“Well, we did have President Lula at the White House on Thursday, and there was a discussion of better or improving beef trade into the United States. A lot of that beef will be used for the grind. In other words, hamburger in Brazil was the biggest importer customer into the United States looking backwards to 2024. So I imagine that there is that potential there, but the Brazilians are going to take a little while to have it all happen. And now we’ve got the Section 122 tariff news, there’s a little push on that. But again, I don’t think it’s enough to really collapse the market. I do believe it’s something that could give us a correction,” he states.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:04:51 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Corn, Soybeans Hold Support as Oil Recovers: Cattle Fall Despite Record Cash

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:56:17 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower on Thursday except back month hog futures.

Grains Follow Crude Oil, War Headlines
Grain markets were lower on Thursday still tied to the trend of the crude oil futures and Iran war headlines says Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing.

“You know, we had crude starting the day out significantly lower, putting those lows in fairly early in the session, and grains did very much the same thing,” he says.

He says up until this week the grain markets seemed like they were trying to divorce from the energy sector and trade their own fundamentals but that isn’t the case the last few days.

“I think today was the best example as it traded both on the lows of the day with the crude and on the highs of the day,” he explains.

Corn and Soybeans End Off Lows
So, crude oil started sharply lower Thursday with the continued news of peace talks with Iran and possibility of getting the Strait of Hormuz open, pulling down grain markets.

However, crude oil stabilized as the day progressed following Iran rejecting the terms for a long-term cease fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That reversal in the crude oil market helped to support late day buying in corn and soybeans, even bean oil.

Corn and Soybeans Hold Support
Corn and soybeans also bounced as they held key chart support and bounced off that level.

“We got underneath the moving average that we’re watching kind of mid-day like on the December corn in that $4.85 area. So we definitely had a lower low than that, but the closes kind of saved the day on the charts,” he says.

He says it was a victory for corn to close just a 1/2 cent lower versus at the low end of the trading range today.

“Something to be watching for tomorrow, though. I mean, we’ve kind of put a few days in a row now, some lower highs and some lower lows and busting through some of the moving averages and retracements. So that’ll be a big number tomorrow.”

Will Funds Defend Longs?
The funds had piled into the corn market the last week or so buying over 83,000 contract last week alone and were record long in soybean oil. So will they defend those long positions if crude oil goes down or wait to see if inflation concerns subside?

“I think they can stay in these markets for a little bit longer in the corn. But they can put a lot more contracts on the books too. From a historical standpoint it’s still early in the season for them to be completely exiting. I don’t think that needs to happen today. I think we’ve got a a month to two months left from a seasonality standpoint and then they could shed some positions,” he adds.

Plus, he thinks the inflationary concerns are far from over because it will take a while to get the Strait of Hormuz open and normalized and the managed money traders realize that.

Favorable Planting Weather
The USDA crop progress report has shown planting progress ahead of average which has also weighed on the markets.

While there have been some areas that have struggled with cold and/or wet conditions slowing planting that is starting to change.

Much of the Corn Belt is seeing some more favorable weather and the extended forecast is also conducive for planting which should result in bearish planting figures for corn and soybeans on Mondday.

“It looks to us like most everybody’s getting a window. There’s some spots out into Indiana and into Ohio that we’re a little concerned about yet, Michelle, as far as planting pace goes. But, you know, that eastern Iowa into Illinois looks like we’re going to be in pretty good shape and getting a nice window in a lot of spots.”

Weekly Exports
Weekly exports on Thursday morning were below last week for corn at 53.6 million bu. but still solid for this time of year. Plus, total exports are up 29% from a year ago.

Soybeans were only 5.2 million bu. for old crop which is a marketing low and cumulative exports are down 23% from last year which is disappointing according to Hoogendoorn.

“I think the marketplace is kind of anticipating some of that. We’re not really riding a huge wave higher as far as especially old crop soybean sales go. So I believe some of that’s priced in. We know we’re going to be lower on exports as this year kind of gets to the back half of the year, right, as far as old crop sales go. New crop is hopefully a different story. I think we’ll get a month or so down the road and we’ll start to focus on that which is why we didn’t take that news harder,” he says.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
Also holding the soybean market together is ideas that China could announce soybean purchases at the Summit next week and so it may build those premium back into heading into the meeting. Is this market building those premiums in? T

“Yes, there’s probably some optimism built in there. However, a lot of these type of meetings have been disappointing. Right. So. let’s be a little careful there if we’re truly putting some premium into the market going into into that meeting let’s approach that thing with some caution. Hopefully it’s not warranted but our history would suggest that gets a little disappointing on the actual action items,” he adds.

Wheat Story Over?
The wheat market did not recover off the lows with crude oil and was down sharply especially in hard red winter wheat contracts.

The market is continuing to remove weather premium with some rains or moisture received in dry HRW areas in Colorado and Western Kansas. Plus the frost concerns have not materialized as advertised.

So, Hoogendoorn says the wheat production concerns are starting to fade.

“Well, talk about an impressive story about buy the rumor and sell the fact, right? I mean, this crop has got a lot of issues as far as the hard red winter wheat. So it’s so impressive that we rallied before that news kind of came out, if you will, or before it was official through the USDA. Now we’re getting a lot of that information coming out on the table, but we’re taking a good 60 cents off that wheat market in the meantime. So yes, that’s very much what’s going on. That wheat story has got some age to it,” he states.

The market didn’t even react to the Oklahoma wheat tour results which pegged the crop at only 47.8 million bushels, which was well below the 106.4 million bu. figure from last year.

And while some areas missed frost there are more freezing temperatures in the forecast for this weekend, which have failed to support the market.

Cattle Lower Despite Higher Cash
Cattle futures ended off session lows but were lower on the day.

Early pressure came from lower boxed beef prices, the lower stock market and concerns that a planned meeting between President Trump and Brazil’s president may result in increased beef imports coming into the U.S. to provide some price relief to beef for consumers.

The funds sold early on the headline says Hoogendoorn.

“They wanted to take risk off on this cattle market in a big way today. We’re hearing more rumors of some discussions going on with Brazil.
We’ll see if anything comes out of that in the next 24 to 48 hours. Be watchful and mindful of that type of discussion. Not sure if that’s what spooked it or if it was something else,” he adds.

He adds the only reason cattle ended off their lows was the higher cash market. He says it started out steady but continued to build momentum.

Southern cash trade was reported at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3. Northern trade live ranged from $258 to $260 live with $402 dressed prices, up $3.

Hog Futures End Mixed
Lean hog futures ended mixed with pressure in the front end of the board on continued ample supplies and bear spreading.

He says, “The market’s been trying really hard to justify having these summer futures markets at a premium to the nearby fundamentals, right? And as time passes and we run on a pretty large lack of any good news on the fundamental standpoint, they struggle to justify that premium. That’s exactly the way the market was trading today. That’s the way it’s been trading. Today they did it in the spread market, which, you know, as producers, we have to be pretty thankful for, right? Like we’re able to sell the front end and at least we’re buying the back end was actually able to post some closes that look pretty attractive there, you know, August on back type of a thing.”

But he thinks the market is on the edge of improving with few numbers in the pipeline.

Export Restrictions Due to Pseudorabies
The other good news is so far the only export restrictions tied to pseudorabies remerging after 20 years is Mexico, but that is limited.

“We’ve got the Mexico saying that they’re not interested in our varieties meats anymore. I think that’s a real thing and gonna be in place for a for a while. I don’t know if that’s something that will drag on all summer and into the fall or not mostly a reduction in revenue for the packers. I don’t think it’s going to have a huge impact,” he says.

Still the market has been on edge awaiting those type of announcements and if there are more he thinks they will be traded negatively.

“So the two things to watch, are there more positive cases and if any more news as far as countries restricting exports for sure,” he adds.

Soybean Farmers Detail ‘Sustainable Practices’ That Can Pay Off

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:14:51 GMT

Cover crops were nearly scratched off Laurie and Jim Isley’s list of practices on their Michigan farm a few years ago. The reason? Production costs were adding roughly $35 an acre to their budget, which was already stretched beyond thin.

“Things were really limited for us, so we looked at that practice really, really hard,” says Laurie, who farms with her husband near Palmyra, Mich. “We can absolutely be environmentally sustainable, but the bottom line is we’re not going to stay in business unless we are profitable.”

The use of cover crops is back on firmer economic ground now, she adds, thanks to cost-share programs such as Farmers for Soil Health (FSH), which help make soil health investments possible for income-strapped growers.

Making Cover Crops Cash-Flow

The biggest hurdle for cover crops has always been the upfront cost versus the delayed gratification of better soil structure. The Farmers for Soil Health initiative is currently bridging that gap for growers in 20 states. Isley says the program offers up to $35 per acre in cost-share, plus technical assistance.

For many farmers, the frustration with government or industry programs often lies in the “fine print.” Isley highlights two specific features of the FSH program that make it a more useful tool for many row-crop growers:

The “No Look Back” Policy: Unlike many programs that only reward “new” adopters, FSH is open to almost any grower. “You are eligible for this program whether you are planting cover crops for the very first time, or whether you’ve been planting them for 10, 15 or 20 years,” Isley says.
Short-Term Commitment: “It’s a one-year contract, but you can re-enroll in it year-after-year (with up to 2,000 acres per operation) through the length of time Farmers for Soil Health continues,” Isley notes.

Beyond the dollars, the program addresses the “how-to” hurdle. Each state has designated advisers to help with cover crop species selection, seeding methods (including the use of drones), and termination timing.

“It isn’t just, ‘Go forth and find cover crops,’” Isley says. “Sometimes you just need some expert help in order to get started on something. Even if you say, ‘I’m only going to do 100 acres this year,’ that’s still 100 acres you’re going to get that $35 an acre on to get started.”

High-Oleic Soybeans: A Revenue-Side Opportunity

While cost-shares help manage expenses, Matthew Chapman is looking at the other side of the ledger: revenue. For his east-central Indiana farm, high-oleic soybean contracts have been a game-changer.

“This project’s really been a home run for the whole soybean industry,” Chapman notes. He says that backed by checkoff investments and partnerships with industry giants like Bayer, Corteva, and Beck’s, the specialty beans have already delivered over $400 million in total returns to U.S. farmers.

Chapman started off growing high-oleic soybeans on 20% of his acreage and eventually scaled to 100%. The premiums — ranging in his area from $0.75 to $1.25 per bushel last year — were a huge boost to his bottom line. But he says they have some requirements that farmers need to consider.

“Oftentimes you’re going to need to store this crop, depending on how far away your purchaser is,” he notes. “Your weed program and your plan need to start in the fall. There’s just a lot to consider ahead of time.”

The market is also evolving. High-oleic oil is prized by restaurants for its long fry life and trans-fat-free profile, and new markets are emerging. Chapman notes that his 2026 crop is destined for dairy feed — the beans will be roasted, cracked and fed whole.

United Soybean Board (USB) projections suggest that by 2027, about half of the U.S. high-oleic soybean crop could be headed to the dairy sector. Industrial uses are also gaining traction in asphalt, bioplastics and fire-resistant hydraulic oil, especially in sensitive environments like mining or near waterways.

Navigating The Carbon And Fuel Frontier

While the federal process for carbon intensity (CI) modeling is still unfolding, farmers see opportunity in markets tied to carbon scores and renewable fuels.

USB is currently funding research to ensure farmers aren’t left behind as these markets mature. One surprising finding from Iowa State University: simply planting earlier can reduce nitrous oxide emissions, a major contributor to CI scores.

“That really costs us nothing to do,” Isley says. By documenting this “free” practice change, farmers can potentially lower their CI scores and increase the value of their grain in renewable fuel markets.

However, participation requires data. Chapman emphasizes that farmers need to be the masters of their own information.

“Whenever you’re selling the data off your farm, which is what this is, it starts with knowing what we have,” he says. “It’s hard to sell something unless you know what you’ve got when you start off.”

In southeast Kansas, farmer Charles Atkinson sees this playing out in the biodiesel and renewable diesel sectors. He believes that using the product on the farm is the best way to support the market.

“It’s a product that we’ve developed, that we’ve raised, and it should be No. 1 on our priority list to use it,” Atkinson says.

The “Plan A Through F” Mindset Is Needed

Beneath all the programs and markets, the three growers say long-term profitability still depends on flexibility: having enough tools and plans on the shelf to adjust to whatever the season and markets throw at them.

The need for flexibility shows up in day-to-day decision-making. Atkinson describes his operation, based near Great Bend, as one that constantly shifts among no-till, cover crops, chemistry options and even occasional tillage, depending on the year’s weather, pests and markets.

“It seems like we have plan A, B, C, D, E and F, and depending on what gets thrown at us and what Mother Nature gives us, we have to figure out what plan to run,” he says. “Last year, I had a beautiful plan together. It was all going to work. And I think we were down to plan D before we got finished up.”

Chapman takes a similar view. He says farmers like having “a lot of tools in the toolbox,” even ones they rarely use.

“As the world’s always changing, we want to be proactive and we want to do stuff that we can voluntarily do on our farm,” he says. “Move towards that goal of leaving the farm better than you found it, and hope the day never comes that something’s your only option.”

Isley says programs such as Farmers for Soil Health, along with EQIP, CSP and state or watershed initiatives, help move more growers toward that toolbox mentality by reducing risk.

In her view, profitable sustainability isn’t about any single practice, but about using the right mix of programs, premiums and practices to fit each farm.

“I think we often are hesitant to look for help, because we want to be self-reliant,” she says. “But sometimes it really makes a difference if we look for technical assistance and for those resources that are out there and available to us.”

Isley, Chapman, and Atkinson shared their perspectives in a webinar, “How Sustainable Production and Economic Viability Can Coexist,” on Thursday. The program was hosted by Agri-Pulse in partnership with the United Soybean Board.