Pro Farmer Analysis

Farm Operating Loans Set a Record

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 12:51:01 GMT

Strong credit demand from U.S. farmers pushed the average size of operating loans to a record and pushed up lending volumes in 2025, according to the National Survey of Terms of Lending to Farmers conducted by the Federal Reserve.

The fourth quarter saw strong demand for operating loans, boosting farm-lending activity at commercial banks, said Ty Kreitman, associate economist at the Kansas City Federal Reserve, in a paper published Friday.

According to estimates from the survey, the volume of new farm operating loans rose nearly 40% from the previous year in the fourth quarter and grew by an average of more than 20% in 2025. While the rise in non-real estate lending during the fourth quarter was attributed to operating expenses, increased feeder-livestock lending also contributed to growth in activity throughout most of 2025, the survey found.

Adjusting for inflation, the average size of farm operating loans during 2025 was 30% larger than the prior year, following similar growth during 2024. Loan sizes have grown alongside elevated production expenses and pushed operating loan volumes well above the average of the past two decades, Kreitman noted.

Among the findings:

Farm loan interest rates remained above the average of recent decades but declined for the sixth consecutive quarter. The share of non-real estate loans with a variable rate increased from below average levels and average loan maturities increased.

The farm economy outlook remained subdued amid weakness in the crop sector, but “aggregate farm financial stress” remained limited, Kreitman wrote. Direct government payments and resilient farm real estate values have eased some of the strain from a weak profit picture for crops, while strength in the cattle sector has lifted income in many areas.

Demand for farm loans has grown alongside tighter working capital, elevated production costs and a surge in cattle prices.

Market conditions in the crop sector are likely to keep profit opportunities narrow in the months ahead, the survey indicated, prolonging challenges for growers that have led to steady deterioration in agricultural credit conditions.

How much corn is yet to be priced?

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 12:58:46 GMT

While producers were aggressive sellers of soybeans last fall, they remained reluctant to move corn or wheat, leading to a buildup of inventory on the farm, CoBank said in a Thursday report.

Company ownership of soybeans in commercial storage jumped to 73.6% as of Nov. 30, up from 66.3% the year prior as farmers sold soybeans at a faster pace, the Colorado-based bank said, citing collateral monitoring reports of grain company customers as of Nov. 30, 2025. CoBank’s data set includes grain companies from around the U.S. that provide monthly borrowing base position reports. The surveys do not include farmers’ marketing positions for commodities stored on-farm.

The share of soybean bushels in commercial storage that were enrolled in delayed pricing programs and basis contracts also fell last fall as farmers priced soybeans during the market rally following the trade truce between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the report said.

Participation in delayed-pricing for soybeans was also down, partially as a result of market uncertainty ahead of the Oct. 30 trade truce, while elevators also limited DP programs due to the risk of owning unpriced bushels in a carry market, the report said. In a DP program, the farmer transfers title to the elevator with the option for the farmer to set futures and basis at a later date while paying the elevator a monthly service fee.

Farmers were less eager to price corn and wheat last fall. Company ownership of corn in commercial storage as of Nov. 30 dropped to 73%, down from 77% a year earlier. Wheat fell to 72% from 75%. Farmers increased use of both DP and basis contracts for corn and wheat as they left prices open in hopes of future recoveries in price. That lack of farmer selling supported cash basis for both crops in some regions, the report said, though the increase in bushels waiting to be priced signals more selling pressure lies ahead, CoBank said.

In line with USDA’s Grain Stocks report, which showed a record number of bushels stored off-farm, CoBank customers also reported large increases in total bushels. The USDA data showed a larger share of soybeans and wheat were stored off farm relative to 2024, implying farmers made more room on-farm to store a record corn crop.

Total U.S. corn stocks on Dec. 1 were record-high at 13.3 billion bushels, up 10% year over year (YOY). The share of the crop stored off-farm on Dec. 1 fell to 34.5%, down from 37% the year before. Off-farm corn stocks were 4.58 million bushels, up 3.9% YoY and the highest in seven years while on-farm storage increased 13.5% YoY to 8.699 billion bushels.

CoBank noted U.S. soybean stocks on Dec. 1 also rose to 3.29 billion bushels, up 6.1% YoY and the highest in seven years with off-farm stocks tallied at 1.71 billion bushels, up 9.9% YoY and the highest in six years. The share of the soybean crop in off-farm storage climbed to 52.1%, up from 50.3% in 2024 to hit a five-year high. Total U.S. wheat stocks on Dec. 1 were tallied at 1.675 billion bushels, up 6.5% YoY and the highest in six years with 73.4% of the crop stored off farm, up from 70.3% last year and the highest in four years.

“Any material increase in corn and wheat prices will likely be met with heavier selling pressure compared to soybeans that already experienced a higher level of farmer selling last fall,” CoBank said. “The Any material increase in corn and wheat prices will likely be met with heavier selling pressure compared to soybeans that already experienced a higher level of farmer selling last fall. The increase in on-farm storage for corn in particular implies there is more corn in the countryside also waiting to be priced, pressuring both flat price and basis.

Ukraine wheat faces deep freeze: Extremely low temperatures, falling as low as 30 degrees Celsius, or minus-22 degrees Fahrenheit, are expected to hit Ukraine early next week, posing a danger to winter crops, Reuters reported , citing analysts and the country’s national emergency service. A sharp drop in temperature is set for Feb. 1, affecting all regions except southern Ukraine, with the frosts to ease slightly only on Feb. 4, the service said on the Telegram messenger. “We consider the current cold spell to be extremely dangerous for winter crops across a significant part of Ukraine,” analyst Barva Invest said on Telegram.
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China Buying Canadian Canola Again

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 12:53:32 GMT

China has resumed its purchases of Canadian canola, an early sign of a revival in the trade after the nations reached a deal this month, Bloomberg reported. “Crushers in the country have booked cargoes of Canadian rapeseed, known locally as canola, for loading in the next few months, according to people with knowledge of the shipments. Importers also booked some canola meal for loading between April to June, said other people involved in the deals,” said the report. China’s imports of canola and canola products from Canada — a trade valued at C$4.9 billion ($3.6 billion) in 2024 — had plunged last year after Beijing imposed steep levies on the goods, a move seen as retaliation for Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other industrial products.
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China Turning to Purchasing Cheaper Brazilian Soybeans

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 12:57:14 GMT

China has ramped up its orders for Brazilian cargoes of soybeans after meeting an initial shipment volume from the U.S. as part of a trade truce with Washington reached last fall. “In the past week, importers have booked at least 25 cargoes of the beans for loading mainly in March and April, driven by margins, according to traders with knowledge of the deals. At the same time, state-owned companies have appeared to refrain from taking U.S. cargoes, said the people, who declined to be named as they were not authorized to talk to the media,” Bloomberg reported. China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the last three months, meeting a commitment outlined by the Trump administration in November. “It makes complete sense to step up purchases of Brazilian soybeans after meeting the U.S. pledge,” said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures Co. “Brazilian supplies are much cheaper.” Over the longer term, the U.S. said China has committed to buying at least 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, and the nation may come back for more U.S. soybean cargoes later this year. Read the latest Pro Farmer news.

U.S.-Canada Relations Continue to Erode

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:36:27 GMT

President Trump on Saturday warned Canada of 100% tariffs in a social media post, saying that if Carney “thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.” Canada has agreed to lower tariffs on 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to 6%, removing a 100% surtax, as part of a deal aimed at rebuilding ties with Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday warned that Canada could face 100% tariffs from the U.S. if the country enters into a free-trade agreement with China and allows itself to become a place where artificially cheap goods can enter the US supply chain. The moves by the U.S. followed a speech by Canadian President Mark Carney during the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, when he spoke about the need for middle powers to band together to counter aggressive coercion by the world’s superpowers. The Canadian leader didn’t mention any countries by name, but his comments were widely interpreted as aimed at the U.S.

Trump and key administration officials have denounced that bilateral agreement and warned of potential consequences, portending a difficult renegotiation for the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement this summer, reported Bloomberg . Canada’s minister in charge of U.S. trade, Dominic LeBlanc, said Saturday that Ottawa isn’t pursuing a free trade agreement with China and that the agreements between Carney and Xi aimed to resolve tariff disputes. More from Pro Farmer.

Wheat Outlook: Next 5, 30, 90 Days (1/23/26)

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 20:23:52 GMT

Price action: March SRW wheat rose 14 cents to $5.29 1/2, near the session high, hit a five-week high and for the week up 11 1/2 cents. March HRW wheat gained 15 cents to $5.40 3/4, near the daily high, closed at a two-month high close and on the week up 13 1/2 cents. March spring wheat futures rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.75, nearer the session high and for the week up 10 cents.

5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets were in solid rally mode today, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The markets were also supported by USDA reporting weekly U.S. wheat sales of 618,100 MT for the week ended Jan. 15, which were up noticeably from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range of 150,000 to 450,000 MT. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in winter wheat futures markets will also invite the chart-based specs to play the long sides early next week. Wheat traders are also watching a major winter storm in the Plains states that has the potential to produce some winterkill.

30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said a close watch on U.S. temperatures and snowfall this week is warranted. Bitter cold this morning have raised a little concern for wheat in Illinois and parts of east-central and north-central Montana where no snow was on the ground. Nebraska received snow overnight to protect its wheat crop and temperatures in Kansas were not low enough to be an issue. Snow is expected in many areas from the central Plains into the Midwest this weekend to protect winter crops from damage. North-central into eastern Montana and a few pockets in the western Dakotas may not have sufficient snow cover and some damage is possible. The losses are unlikely to be very great, though. Meantime, bitter cold in western Russia and northeastern Europe recent has had no negative impact on winter crops because of significant snow cover and no changes in the situation are warranted for the coming week to ten days. Warming is likely next week. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased and will continue to be eased. Tunisia dryness has also been eased recently with more moisture coming. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture as well and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be coming in the next week to 10 days.

90-day outlook: Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar index that today was poised to close at its lowest level since early October is a bullish element for the wheat futures markets. In hard red spring wheat, short-covering gains from the Jan. 16 low led nearby futures above key technical areas, though the upside is likely to be capped by resistance at the Dec. 24 high. A sideways to lower pattern seems likely, though the three-month-long pattern of consolidation could be a basing pattern and ultimately a longer term floor if an upside breakout were to occur

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No Farm Aid in Funding Bills

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 22:13:46 GMT

Farm leaders urged lawmakers to work quickly to include additional aid for farmers and language aimed at allowing year-round use of 15% ethanol blended gasoline, or E15, in appropriations bills being drafted this month.

“Members of Congress on both sides of the aisle have assured us in recent weeks that they recognize more aid is needed to keep our food supply strong, which requires a strong agricultural sector,” said American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall, in a statement. “Many have also voiced strong support for approving year-round E15 fuel, which would be a win-win for consumers and farmers by reducing the price of fuel at the pump while increasing demand for both corn and sorghum.

“The target for months has been to include both priorities in the government funding package. So, it was a shock to see bill text proposed by the House that includes neither,” Duvall wrote. “There is still time. Congress must act.”

Specialty Crop Farm Bill Alliance leaders also expressed disappointment, and were still chafing after aid announced last year allotted just $1 billion out of a $12 billion package to specialty crops. Details on specialty-crop payments are still awaited.

Alliance co-chair Cathy Burns of the International Fresh Produce Association told Brownfield Ag Network that last year’s package should have set aside no less than a third of funds for specialty crop producers. “Specialty crops account for one-third of crop sales in the U.S., and we have the same harmful headwinds that the rest of agriculture is experiencing,” Burns said.

She told the radio network that $5 billion in relief would help alleviate some of the unprecedented economic challenges facing growers from labor, input costs, lost markets, and unfair competition from competitors.

Ethanol's Record-Breaking Start to 2026

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 12:50:32 GMT

The first full week of 2026 marked another record for U.S. ethanol production.

Ethanol production in the week ended Jan. 9 hit a record 1.196 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. Analysts, on average, had expected production to rise to 1.105 million barrels from 1.098 million barrels the previous week, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The data likely helped corn futures as the March contract bounced 2 ¼ cents after a 26-cent drop the previous two sessions following a USDA crop production update that boosted the crop above the 17 billion bushel threshold.

Ethanol stocks rose to 24.473 million barrels, above the average estimate of 24.126 million barrels and up from 23.652 million barrels the previous week.

USDA on Tuesday estimated ethanol demand at 5.6 billion bushels of corn in the current marketing year. A record crop has served as fodder for farm and biofuel groups as they push for year-round approval of E15, a 15% ethanol blend with gasoline, and clarity on biofuel blending rules and other measures aimed at boosting demand for the crop.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, speaking at the American Farm Bureau Federation convention in Anaheim, California, earlier this week said it was up to Congress to “do its job and pass nationwide year-round E15 legislation to continue to drive domestic crop demand providing a clear win-win for farmers and consumers.”

Rep. Randy Feenstra, an Iowa Republican, told the Brownfield Ag Network on Tuesday that year-round E15 legislation could be attached to a mini-omnibus appropriations bill. “That’s going to happen next week,” he said. “We’ve got one passing this week, it probably won’t jump on this week. It’s really directed on how the Senate can achieve this, we’re working from the House side. But we’re just trying to find that train that we can jump on and get it done.” Read Pro Farmer’s latest market reports.

Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat May Undermine U.S.-China Trade Truce

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 12:33:39 GMT

President Trump’s announcement on Monday of new tariffs on goods from countries trading with Iran risks derailing his one-year trade truce with China, the world’s top buyer of Iranian oil. “Any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump posted on social media Monday and as reported by Bloomberg . The levy is “effective immediately,” he added, without elaborating on the scope or implementation of the charges. It’s unclear if Trump will stack the latest tariffs on top of existing rates or announce carve-outs for China, after his administration previously signaled higher fees could inflict domestic pain. If the U.S. doesn’t respect its deal with China, Beijing has the right to take “appropriate action,” said Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of Commerce. Trump has said he was mulling potential options in response to reports of deadly crackdowns on Iranian demonstrators. China will protect its rights and interests, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Tuesday at a regular press briefing in Beijing, when asked about Trump’s tariff remarks. Earlier, China’s embassy in Washington slammed Trump’s threats as “coercion” in a statement to the South China Morning Post, vowing that Beijing would “take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights,” Bloomberg reported.
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History Says Dollar Likely to Fall Again in 2026

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 12:49:43 GMT

The U.S. dollar saw its biggest annual drop in eight years in 2025; history shows that down years for the greenback often happen in pairs.

That could be welcome news for U.S. farmers in 2026. A weak U.S. dollar was seen providing a tailwind for a robust corn export pace and may have helped cushion the blow from China’s boycott of U.S. soybean purchases last year. A weak dollar is generally seen as a boon for commodities priced in the currency as well as U.S.-made goods as it makes them cheaper to users of other currencies.

The dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against a basket of six major rivals, fell by 9.4% in 2025, its biggest annual decline since 2017 and second-largest of the last two decades. Strategists at BofA Global Research studied past years when the dollar’s performance most closely resembled 2025. They found that dollar weakness continued into the following year four out of five times.

The average performance of those top five analog years would imply a further 8% downside for the dollar in 2026, said Howard Du, G-10 FX strategist at BofA, in a note on Thursday.

The top five historical analogs for 2026 are 1987, 1995, 2003, 2007 and 2018, Du said, pointing to 1995 as likely the most relevant. That’s because the fundamental backdrop – the economy and the monetary policy backdrop – in 2026 most closely resembles 1995.

“Tech-driven growth allowed the U.S. economy to see a soft landing rather than recession; the Fed proceeded to cut rates in H2 1995 despite inflation running closer to 3% than 2% at the time,” Du wrote. “In 2026, we also expect the U.S. economy to muddle through after a shutdown-driven soft patch in Q4 ’25, and the Fed to further cut rates after midyear.”

The 1995 analog alone would imply 4.2% more downside for the dollar this year, he said, similar to BofA’s forecast for the DXY to fall to a 95-handle in 2026. The dollar has been off to a firm start to begin the new year, trading Thursday at 98.92, up 0.2% on the day and at its highest since Dec.10.

Strength on Thursday came after first-time jobless claims came in weaker than expected, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S.-based employers announced 35,553 job cuts in December,the lowest since July of 2024.
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Details Emerge Regarding U.S. Policy on Venezuelan Crude Oil

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 13:56:27 GMT

Oil traders and U.S. refiners are rushing to position for access to Venezuelan crude oil after the Trump administration said it would take control of as much as 50 million barrels, one of the largest unexpected supply flows in years, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. strategy — announced initially in a late-night social media post Tuesday from President Trump and more details coming Wednesday from Energy Secretary Chris Wright — “puts the federal government into direct involvement in the international oil market and promises to reinvigorate flows of Venezuelan crude to American refineries after years of sanctions. The return of Venezuelan barrels to U.S. buyers could mark one of the most significant shifts in global energy markets in recent years. It has already sent Canadian crude prices plunging and weighed on benchmark oil futures. The country has the world’s largest oil reserves, but its production has slumped below 1 million barrels a day after decades of underinvestment, trade sanctions and economic isolation,” said the Bloomberg report. Trump said in a New York Times interview published today that the U.S. would be running Venezuela and extracting its oil for years. “We will rebuild it in a very profitable way,” he told the newspaper. While top U.S. oil companies are set to meet with Trump at the White House in coming days, several drilling firms are still likely to be wary of a quick return or entry into Venezuela without assurances and clarity about the political and legal landscape, Bloomberg said.
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Ethanol Blend Rate Tops 11% for First Time

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 12:55:31 GMT

Ethanol accounted for 11.06% of the nation’s gasoline in October, marking the first time in history that the monthly ethanol blend rate has exceeded 11%, the Renewable Fuels Association said Tuesday, citing data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The RFA said the record-high blend rate reflects the growing use of E15 and flex fuels like E85. The trade group also took aim at the notion of a “blend wall” that prevents ethanol from making up more than 10% of the gasoline pool. “The numbers also prove that the fictitious ‘blend wall’ is nothing but an imaginary barrier created by those who oppose American-made renewable fuels produced from American-grown crops,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper.
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More Signs of a Global Crude Oil Glut

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 15:40:46 GMT

The Middle Eastern crude oil market is showing more signs of weakness amid growing concerns about a global glut that could drag prices still lower. The discount of the regional Dubai benchmark to Brent crude oil futures was at the widest since August on Monday, Bloomberg reported, suggesting ample supplies. The global oil market has been dominated by concerns that worldwide supplies have been running ahead of demand after OPEC+ producers and other drillers ramped up output. Against that backdrop, Brent futures — the leading oil benchmark — sank by 18% last year to cap the worst annual showing since 2020. Meanwhile, investors betting on growth in Venezuela oil output after the U.S. last weekend ousted its dictator “will need deep pockets and patience, as aging infrastructure will require billions of dollars in spending. The regular timeframes to increase oil output are likely to be longer in Venezuela than elsewhere due to the challenges faced by the industry. To maintain production of 1 million barrels a day, Venezuela would likely need more than the industry standard of roughly $5.5 billion in annual investment,” said Bloomberg.
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Days Numbered for Cheap Brazil Beef?

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 12:46:59 GMT

Brazil is a beef-exporting juggernaut, but the country’s ability to tame global prices may soon be tested, Bloomberg reports , noting that the country is about to enter a period of shrinking supplies.

The report noted that a surge in Brazil’s beef production has helped fuel surging exports over the past two years. It came as big herds drove down cattle prices relative to elsewhere, encouraging ranchers to send more animals to slaughter. At the same time, the U.S. and other countries struggled with high food costs and sought sources of cheaper beef. The U.S. imposed hefty tariffs on Brazilian imports earlier this year, but lifted them this fall. The tariffs were seen as a factor in helping U.S. cattle and beef prices soar to records, while the removal of the tariffs added momentum to a pullback from all-time highs for cattle futures.

But the Trump administration’s hopes that imports will help hold down U.S. beef prices come as the cycle is turning, Bloomberg noted, with prices for calves climbing in Brazil as producers begin holding back heifers to rebuild herds. That reduces the number of animals sent to slaughter and marks the start of a tightening supply cycle. Other countries are also in the process of rebuilding herds, while cattle supplies are expected to remain tight in the U.S. for at least another year amid a lack of signs that heifer retention has yet got under way. “Next year will be crucial because all the major countries in the cattle market will be in a scenario fo herd recovery,” Raphael Galo, head of agribusiness at A7 Capital, told Bloomberg.
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Don’t snooze on Japan

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 21:54:42 GMT

What do Japanese bond investors have to do with the prices of grain or livestock? Directly, not much, but when they make sudden shifts it can send ripple effects across all markets. So it’s worth paying attention to the Bank of Japan and the market’s reaction to its latest policy moves.

The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate on Friday to its highest level in 30 years to 0.75% from 0.5%, citing sticky inflation. The hike comes after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week delivered the latest in a series of rate cuts. The yen actually weakened after the move, in part because BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda was murky on the prospects for additional tightening. But the yen has rebounded more than 8% versus a broadly weaker U.S. dollar over the last six months in part to the contrasting monetary policy stances between the two countries.

And expectations for further tightening could mean more yen strength, which could threaten what’s known as the “carry trade,” in which traders borrow in cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and equities, elsewhere.

The bigger worry, however, is that the slow move away from ultralow interest rates raises the attractiveness of Japanese government bonds to domestic Japanese investors. The Treasury market has seen occasional bouts of volatility, including in the summer of 2023 , on such concerns. Japanese investors have vast holdings of U.S. fixed income, and anything that sends them running for the exits would serve to lift U.S. yields and strengthen the dollar, with implications for other markets. That isn’t a prediction or base-case scenario, but it’s smart to be aware of where lie the potential fault lines in the global financial system.
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Ag Bank Earnings Rise Alongside Loan Demand

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 12:58:16 GMT

Alongside strong growth in farm loans, liquidity at commercial agricultural banks tightened and earnings increased during the third quarter, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank reported Wednesday.

Citing the Reports of Condition and Income, the Kansas City Fed said the average loan-to-deposit ratio at agricultural banks increased to the highest level since 2019 and rose comparably more at lenders with the highest concentration of farm loans. Liquidity declined alongside consistently strong growth in non-real estate farm debt, which also supported an increase in average net interest margins and return on assets. Demand for farm loans has grown steadily alongside softening in farm financial conditions and farm loan delinquency rates increased slightly from a year ago but remained relatively low, the report said.
farmloan1218.png (1084x862, AR: 1.26)The regional Fed bank said the outlook for the U.S. farm economy remained subdued alongside weakness in the crop sector, but that strength in the cattle sector has lifted conditions in some regions and recently announced government assistance would provide support to farm incomes. Disparities in the crop and cattle sectors have been evident in credit conditions but despite profitability challenges for crop producers, aggregate farm financial stress has remained limited, the report said.

Ad hoc government payments associated with the American Relief Act and resilient farm real estate values have eased some strain in the sector throughout 2025. Looking ahead, market conditions in the crop sector are likely to keep profit opportunities narrow, but the recently announced Farmer Bridge Assistance Program will provide some relief to crop farmers in the coming months, the report said. Read more from Pro Farmer.

Update on Canada’s Field Crops and Markets

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 12:45:48 GMT

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) November field crop outlook report for the 2025-26 crop year, released Wednesday afternoon, said uncertainty in Canadian and global grain markets remains elevated, primarily due to persistent geopolitical factors that continue to disrupt trade flows and market stability. Production of all principal field crops in Canada is estimated at 107.0 million MT, an increase of 10.4% from 2024 and 16.2% above the 2020–2024 average of 92.1 million MT. This marks the largest crop on record, surpassing the previous high of 100.1 million MT set in 2020 by 7%.

Western Canada is projected to lead growth, with production rising 16% year-over-year to 85.3 million MT, which is 23% above the five-year average, as nearly all crops posted gains. In contrast, Eastern Canada’s output is expected to decline 6.5% from 2024, driven by lower corn and soybean production that outweighed gains in wheat. The primary driver of higher production was improved yields, as the total harvested area remained largely unchanged. Year-over-year, production by commodity group showed notable gains: wheat rose 11%, with growth in both durum and non-durum varieties. Oilseeds were up 7%, as canola and flaxseed gains offset a smaller soybean crop. Coarse grains were higher by 7% with increases across all coarse grains except corn. Pulse and special crops (P&SC) increased by 32%, largely due to higher pea and lentil production.

Exports of principal field crops are projected to decline 4% from last year yet remains 9% above the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks (year-end inventories) are forecast to rise 68%, driven by higher production and reduced export volumes. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, with the exception of soybeans and mustard, which are expected to post slight increases.
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U.S. to Remove Belarus Potash Sanctions

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 13:12:55 GMT

The U.S. will remove sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, the key source of foreign-currency revenue for the Russia-aligned nation before Western restrictions stifled their flow, Bloomberg reported. President Trump ordered the sanctions lifted, effective immediately, the Belarusian state-owned news agency Belta cited his special envoy, John Coale, as saying in Minsk on Saturday and as reported by Bloomberg.
“This is a very good step by the United States for Belarus,” Belta cited Coale as saying following two days of talks in the Belarusian capital. “We are lifting them now.” The U.S. may ease more restrictions as its relations with Belarus normalize, potentially reaching the point where no sanctions will remain, Coale said, according to Belta. The announcement follows Trump’s push to rebuild ties with authoritarian Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Washington’s move to lift sanctions may do little to weaken that link unless the European Union lifts its own ban. EU restrictions forbid the flow of Belarus-made potash through Lithuania — once the key export hub for the fertilizers — to the Baltic Sea port of Klaipeda,” said Bloomberg.
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La Niña Expected to Fade in Early 2026

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 13:00:06 GMT

The La Niña weather pattern is expected to persist for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. That does not mean much for U.S. weather patterns, but it could limit precipitation over South America’s growing season, meteorologists say.

In a La Niña pattern , stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts have noted.

Meteorologists have forecast that the current weak La Nina could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier earlier this week. That hasn’t yet materialized, he noted, with crops, in fact, doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent. He noted, though, that less than half the soybeans have been planted.

Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he said. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.not materialize, then this estimate is probably too low. Read more from Pro Farmer.

Fed Leans Surprisingly Dovish, Wrong-Footing the Marketplace

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 12:58:35 GMT

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee on Wednesday afternoon delivered a 0.25% interest rate cut, which was fully expected by the marketplace and was the third quarter-point rate cut in a row at the FOMC meetings. The FOMC voted 9-3 to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The FOMC statement suggested greater uncertainty about when the Fed might cut rates again. The Fed surprised markets by saying it will begin buying $40 billion of Treasury bills per month starting Friday, in a move to further ease short-term funding costs by rebuilding reserves in the financial system. Money markets have been flashing signals in recent months that pressures were building up in the $12.6 trillion market while the Fed was shrinking its balance sheet. U.S. stock indexes rallied, U.S. Treasury yields dipped, the U.S. dollar index sold off, and gold and silver prices rallied following the FOMC meeting’s conclusion and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday afternoon. In the days leading up to this week’s FOMC meeting, most of the marketplace came to reckon that despite the expected rate cut, the Fed and Powell would deliver a somewhat more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy. However, the marketplace saw the Fed’s dovish move to buy U.S. Treasury bills as usurping any other Fed rhetoric that might have been deemed hawkish.
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Oil Market Faces ‘Super Glut’

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 12:47:51 GMT

Less encouraging for corn and soybean futures, the oil market faces the prospect of a “super glut” next year, the chief economist at one of the world’s largest commodity traders warned.

New drilling projects and slowing demand growth will likely keep pressure on already depressed crude prices in the year ahead, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, in remarks Tuesday accompanying the trading house’s annual results, the Financial Times reported .

“Whether it’s a glut, or a super glut, it’s hard to get away from that,” Rahim said.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down around 17% so far in 2025, headed for its worst year since 2020. Low crude prices can dent demand for corn and soybeans, making ethanol and biodiesel less attractive to refiners for blending purposes.

Trump threatens tariffs on Canadian fertilizer, Indian rice

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 12:54:38 GMT

President Trump on Monday signaled he could impose new tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizer and Indian rice. Trump spoke Monday at a White House event to announce new aid for farmers, some of whom said cheaper imports are making it difficult for their products to compete in the marketplace. Trump said he would “take care” of alleged dumping of Indian rice into the U.S. and suggested targeting fertilizer imported from Canada to boost domestic production, Bloomberg reported. Some farmers have blamed imports for falling U.S. rice prices, saying countries such as India, Vietnam and Thailand are undercutting the U.S. rice crops. “They shouldn’t be dumping,” Trump said. “I mean, I heard that, I heard that from others. You can’t do that.” Trump similarly suggested he could target fertilizer imported from Canada to boost domestic production. “A lot of it does come in from Canada, and so we’ll end up putting very severe tariffs on that, if we have to, because that’s the way you want to bolster here,” Trump said. “And we can do it here. We can all do that here.”

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China’s Pork Prices Continue to Decline, Suggesting Sagging Consumer Confidence

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 13:42:26 GMT

China’s pork prices have been declining all year are likely set to drop even lower, with government efforts to cull the breeding herd and a seasonal demand boost not enough to arrest the slide, Bloomberg reported. “Wholesale prices have dropped 18% so far in 2025 and are at the lowest level in more than three years. Consumption of China’s most popular protein normally picks up as temperatures cool, but the declines highlight how fragile consumer sentiment is at the moment. A trade truce with the U.S. has restored a semblance of economic calm, but the property-market slump and a weak jobs market mean consumers aren’t splashing out just yet. With the 5% GDP growth target for 2025 in sight, Beijing also appears likely to hold back on stimulus, although that leaves room for support early next year,” Bloomberg Economics said. China’s restaurants and retailers should be starting to stock up on supplies for winter and the upcoming holidays, when Chinese people go out for meals more and also entertain at home. But the external environment as well as an oversupply of hogs means pork prices will likely keep dropping this month, according to commodities consultancy Mysteel. Beijing has been pushing this year for major hog producers to cut their breeding herds, along with other measures to tackle oversupply. Sow numbers were down 2.1% at the end of October from a year earlier, according to government data, but the drop hasn’t been big enough to have a meaningful impact on pork prices.
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OPEC+ to Keep its Crude Oil Production Steady in First Quarter

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 14:29:56 GMT

OPEC+ will stick with plans to pause its collective crude oil production increases during the first quarter of 2026, amid growing signs of a surplus in global oil markets. “Key members led by Saudi Arabia confirmed the three-month supply pause, first announced at the start of November, during a video conference on Sunday following a series of meetings among the wider alliance. In a statement, the group reiterated that the decision reflected its expectations for weaker seasonal market conditions. OPEC+ members also agreed to keep group-wide quotas steady next year and approved a mechanism for an upcoming review of individual oil production capacities, the group said separately. The review is expected to help set output quotas in 2027,” said a Bloomberg report. While the pause on output hikes indicates some caution by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners after they rapidly revived oil production earlier this year, it still leaves world markets on track for a significant excess in early 2026, which is likely to put further pressure on prices,” said Bloomberg. Oil futures prices have declined around 15% so far this year. The International Energy Agency in Paris predicts a record glut in 2026, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see crude oil futures prices heading lower.
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China Soybean Oil Exports Surge

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 12:41:47 GMT

China’s exports of soybean oil to India have risen sharply as weak domestic demand coincides with robust imports of soybeans from South America and more recently the U.S, reports Bloomberg . China shipped a record 70,877 tons of the cooking oil in October, according to customs data, most of which went to India. Exports in the first 10 months of the year reached 329,000 tons, almost triple what they were for all of 2024. China has long viewed its dependence on foreign soybeans as a vulnerability in a world where geopolitics and viruses can quickly disrupt commodity flows. However, robust imports from South America are hitting a tepid local economy, forcing Chinese soyoil processors to seek new markets. “It’s another example of flagging consumption in China resulting in a surplus, with the excess flooding into global markets. In this case it’s a development that’s welcome in India, the world’s biggest importer of soybean oil. This newly forged trade route is likely to become busier, as China returns to buying U.S. soybeans after last month’s trade truce, and relations between Beijing and New Delhi improve. The trade makes logistical sense for India, said Aashish Acharya, a vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of the country’s top vegetable-oil buyers,” said Bloomberg. Chinese soybean oil is trading at a discount of $10 to $15 a ton to that from South America and can reach India’s east coast in about 10 to 12 days, compared with the 50- to 60-day journey from Brazil and Argentina, Acharya said. China is the world’s biggest producer of soybean oil, producing around 20 million tons a year.
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Trump Calls Out “Big Four” Meatpackers as Foreign-Owned Cartels

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 13:10:13 GMT

A Bloomberg opinion story over the weekend highlighted President Trump calling on the U.S. Justice Department to investigate the so-called Big Four meatpacking conglomerates “that have a hammerlock on beef processing, distribution and pricing in the U.S.” Trump’s allegations are serious: price fixing, collusion and market manipulation by what he calls “foreign-owned meatpacking cartels.” Together, the Big Four control 85% of the U.S. beef market, which the White House says amounts to monopoly power, allowing the companies to slash payments to farmers, reduce herd sizes, drive up consumer prices and jeopardize the nation’s food supply, said Bloomberg. “Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat Illegal monopolies, and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people,” Trump posted on his social network.

The Big Four themselves have chosen not to comment on the investigation or the president’s allegations. But the Meat Institute, a trade group representing meat and poultry processors, said beef packers have been losing money because of tight cattle supplies and strong demand. Recent Trump administration actions have concerned many U.S. farmers—namely a trade showdown with China that prompted China to stop buying U.S. soybeans, and Trump threatening to import more beef from Argentina. President Trump may have won back a measure of farmer support by attacking four of the best-known names in agribusiness: Minnesota’s Cargill, one of the largest privately held companies in the country; Tyson Foods, a major meat and poultry producer out of Arkansas; and JBS in Colorado and National Beef Packing Company in Missouri. The latter two are owned by companies in Brazil but have their U.S. headquarters in those states. The U.S. beef market was valued at more than $108 billion in 2024, said the Bloomberg opinion piece.
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Corn Outlook: Next 5, 30, 90 Days (11.14.25)

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 20:04:01 GMT

Price action: December corn fell 11 1/4 cents to $4.30 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week up 3 cents.

5-day outlook: Corn futures sold off following today’s November USDA supply and demand report. The agency cut its U.S. corn crop estimate 62 million bu. from the September report. The average yield declined 0.7 bu. to 186.0 bu. per acre, though still 6.7 bu. above last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 90.047 million acres. USDA matched the Sept. 30 U.S. figure for 2024-25 ending stocks and increased total U.S. supplies by 144 million bu. USDA did increase U.S. corn exports by 100 million bu. to a record-breaking 3.075 billion bushels. Global corn carryover was pegged by USDA at 291.7 MMT for 2024-25, up 7.5 MMT from September; and at 281.3 MMT for 2025-26, down 60,000 MT.

Today’s selling pressure did not do any significant chart damage but the bulls do not want to see follow-through selling pressure on Monday that could negate the price uptrend on the daily chart for December futures.

30-day outlook: Focus of traders is turning more to growing weather in South American corn regions. World Weather Inc. today said rain has been delayed for portions of northern Brazil since Thursday’s forecast and many areas from east-central and southeastern Mato Grosso to central and southern Goias will see little rain through next Thursday while the remainder of northern Brazil is still expected to see greater rain starting next Tuesday. Western into central Mato Grosso will be wettest through Monday and will see rain today and Monday. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance around the precipitation while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development with frequent rain in Paraguay and Mato Grosso do Sul through Monday. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around two rounds of organized rain through the next week that will favor central and northern areas with rain infrequent and often light Nov. 22-28. Showers Nov. 22-28 should impact parts of the region and will slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed soon across these areas and in a growing part of western Argentina.

90-day outlook: Strong domestic and export demand for corn, as confirmed with today’s USDA data, should at least keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months. The resumption of USDA export sales data will be welcomed by corn traders. More trade deals being inked between the U.S. and other countries should also improve global demand for U.S. corn.

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