USDA Reports

USDA Expands Farmer Surveys to Improve Data Accuracy, Relocates Staff Closer to the Farm

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 12:59:40 GMT

USDA is moving to adjust how it collects and communicates agricultural data following an April 22 meeting with stakeholders in Kansas City, pairing expanded farmer surveys, increased transparency efforts and new performance tracking with a sweeping reorganization that will relocate staff closer to agricultural regions.

Leading into the USDA Data Users meeting on Wednesday, Farm Journal spoke one-on-one with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. While he wasn’t in the room physically on Wednesday, instead joining virtually, Vaden made clear he intended to play an active role in the discussion.

“I’m excited about that because one of the things that both the Secretary and I are committed to is better transparency, especially when it comes to our data,” he says. “USDA data needs to be the gold standard, and we need to be brave enough to take feedback. Everyone can always improve.”

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by U.S. Farm Report (@usfarmreport)

That theme, being “brave enough” to hear criticism, carried through both the meeting and the department’s broader outreach effort. As USDA, ERS, NASS, World Board and others participated in a panel on stage followed by Q&A, they had unified message that they’ll do whatever it takes to rebuild farmer trust and restore confidence in USDA data and reporting.

Earlier this month, USDA closed a public comment period inviting anyone who interacts with its data to weigh in on how it could improve.

“What we have done is we had a public comment process which just closed on the 9th of April, where we asked everyone who has any interaction with our data, tell us what you think,” Vaden says. “Are there ways that we can collect data better? Are there ways that we can report data better?”

Data Users Meeting Highlights Concerns Over Participation, Accuracy

At the Kansas City meeting, one issue stood out: falling farmer participation in USDA surveys and what that means for the reliability of widely watched reports.

Officials from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) acknowledged that response rates have dropped to historically low levels. The March 31 planting intentions report drew responses from just 37.6% of surveyed producers, down from 44.3% a year earlier and the lowest on record. But they also talked about plans to improve those numbers.

That decline has raised concerns across the agriculture sector, particularly after USDA made sizable revisions to 2025 corn acreage estimates earlier this year. Because markets rely heavily on USDA data for price discovery, risk management, and policy decisions, even small questions about accuracy can ripple widely.

In response, NASS plans to significantly expand its farmer survey efforts in an attempt to rebuild participation and improve data quality.

USDA Plans Expanded Farmer Surveys to Improve Data Reliability

According to NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons, the agency intends to increase the number of farmers surveyed for major acreage reports, pending approval from the Office of Management and Budget.

The most immediate change would come with the June 30 acreage report, where USDA plans to boost its sample size by roughly 35%. Additional increases of about 10% are planned for the September, December, and March reports.

The goal is straightforward: generate more usable responses and improve the precision of crop estimates.

Beyond simply expanding outreach, USDA is also working to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its reports. Parsons says the agency will incorporate more “plain language” explanations to help producers, traders, and policymakers better understand confidence levels and potential variability in the data.

Reorganization Announcement Follows Immediately After Data Meeting

Just one day after the Data Users meeting, USDA underscored how quickly change is unfolding across the department by announcing a sweeping reorganization that will relocate major divisions, including positions tied to data and research, out of Washington, D.C.

The agency announced the broad reorganization and relocation of staff, saying it will modernize operations. But some stakeholders warn the changes could strain staffing levels and institutional expertise at data-focused offices, including NASS and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, following recent departures tied to the Deferred Resignation Program.

According to USDA’s Thursday announcement, the overhaul will shift key components of the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Research, Education, and Economics (REE) mission area closer to agricultural regions, in what officials describe as an effort to modernize operations and better align staff with the producers they serve.

At the center of the changes is the creation of a new National Food Safety Center in Urbandale, Iowa, which will serve as the primary hub for FSIS administrative, technical, and support functions. The facility is expected to house roughly 200 employees and become the agency’s largest office. A separate science center in Athens, Georgia, will expand capabilities in microbiology, chemistry, and epidemiology.

USDA officials emphasize that frontline inspection operations, which account for roughly 85% of FSIS personnel, will not be affected, and no reductions in force are planned. Additional staff tied to international operations will be located in Fort Collins, Colorado, while about 100 positions will remain in Washington for policy and congressional work.

The restructuring also reaches into the department’s data and research arms.

The Economic Research Service (ERS) and National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) will relocate additional positions to Kansas City, reinforcing a move first initiated during the previous Trump administration. NASS will also shift certain Washington-based roles to St. Louis and other regional offices while maintaining its nationwide data collection network.

Meanwhile, the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) will begin decommissioning the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center in Maryland, redistributing research programs across the country to better align with regional agricultural needs and modernize aging infrastructure.

USDA leaders frame the reorganization as a move to reduce duplication, improve accountability, and strengthen connections between federal agencies and the agricultural sector. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the changes are intended to better align staff with mission needs, while agency leaders emphasize improved workforce support, training, and recruitment.

Greater Transparency and Accountability Ahead

The timing of the reorganization, coming immediately after a meeting focused on data credibility, highlights the broader scope of USDA’s efforts to rebuild trust and improve performance.

Alongside expanded surveys and structural changes, the department is also taking steps to more directly evaluate its forecasting accuracy.

Vaden says USDA is planning to launch an annual report, potentially beginning this fall, that will compare its crop forecasts against final production totals after the marketing year concludes. The effort is designed to give stakeholders a clearer picture of how USDA estimates stack up over time.

“This is not something that will be solved in a day,” Vaden says. “But we have to be brave enough to take feedback and issue public reports on how we did and how our numbers ended up stacking up against the final facts, so that we can begin the process of ensuring that there is continuous improvement with regard to the quality of USDA data.”

Behind the scenes, that process is already underway. Vaden says he is receiving internal briefings on the feedback submitted through the Request for Information and is meeting directly with trade groups and farmer representatives.

“I, as a matter of fact, am receiving a briefing later today on what the comments that came in as part of our request for information show, and how we can have further areas of improvement,” he says. “And I am meeting with some of the commenters… to hear from them personally about how we could do our job better.”

Is USDA’s Reorganization Impacting Data Accuracy?

Even before the formal announcement, questions had already been circulating about whether internal restructuring could affect USDA reporting.

Vaden dismisses that idea.

“Well, first, with regard to your question about whether there’s a link to the data, the answer is no,” he says. “Our WASDE professionals are professionals in the Office of the Chief Economist. They are unbothered by the reorganization. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day work at all.”

In practical terms, he suggests the impact on those teams is minimal.

“The only thing they’re going to have to do is leave the South Building and come over here to the Witten Building for lockup,” he says.

Still, the scale of the changes is significant. USDA is looking to shrink its Washington footprint, where the South Building is more than 70% vacant and carries over $1.6 billion in deferred maintenance, while relocating employees closer to rural communities.

“No private sector company in the world would pay for real estate that is more than 70% vacant,” Vaden says.

Q&A Underscores Concerns Over Trust, Participation, and Transparency

The question-and-answer session at the close of the Data Users meeting made clear that concerns about USDA data go beyond methodology.

Several attendees pressed officials on how the agency plans to reverse declining farmer response rates, with some noting that lower participation could introduce bias into key reports. NASS officials acknowledged the concern and pointed to expanded survey efforts as a primary solution, while also emphasizing outreach to better explain why farmer participation matters.

Officials say they are exploring additional ways to engage producers directly, including clearer communication about how survey data is used and stronger assurances around confidentiality.

Questions also focused on large revisions to recent crop estimates, with market participants asking whether those changes signal deeper issues in data collection or modeling. USDA representatives stressed that revisions are a normal part of the statistical process but acknowledged the need to better communicate why those adjustments occur and what they mean for users.

Another recurring theme was transparency, specifically, how USDA conveys uncertainty in its reports. Attendees urged the department to provide clearer indicators of confidence levels and potential variability, particularly during periods of market volatility. NASS officials pointed to planned “plain language” additions as one step toward making reports more accessible and easier to interpret.

Some participants also raised concerns about whether internal changes, including the department’s broader reorganization, could disrupt data quality or continuity. USDA officials reiterated that statistical staff and processes remain intact and said efforts are being made to ensure consistency regardless of organizational shifts.

Finally, several questions centered on accountability, and how USDA evaluates its own performance over time. Officials confirmed that the department is working toward publishing a regular assessment comparing forecasts to final outcomes, a move widely viewed by attendees as a meaningful step toward rebuilding confidence.

USDA Provides Shock and Disappointment in November Reports

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 21:30:27 GMT

The long-awaited supply and demand reports from USDA are now out, but they did little to spur the grain market in a positive direction at the end of last week. The biggest shocks came from USDA cutting corn yield less than a bushel and lowering soybean exports by 50 million bushels, while still acknowledging the China purchase commitments.

While the corn crop shrank since September, the U.S. is still looking at record production and yield at 186 bu. per acre.

USDA cut corn yields 3 bu. in Iowa and 6 bu. in Minnesota, but it raised yields in Illinois by 2 bu. and South Dakota by 6 bu. The national yield was lowered by only 0.7 bu., a shock to market analysts based on disease and production issues.

“There’s some awfully good corn out there this year,” says Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net. “Corn that performed better than what you would expect for the kind of weather we had, but there was also some train wrecks and a lot of growers who indicated to us their crop was good, it just wasn’t quite as good as a year ago, so we were shocked to see a 186 yield.”

The corn yield cut lowered production by 62 million bushels.

(Farm Journal)

A 207-million-bushel increase in carry-in increased 2025-26 carryout, by 44 million, to just under 2.2 billion bushels. USDA offset part of the supply increase by raising corn exports by 100 million bushels based on current sales to a record 3.1 billion bushels.

“You could make the case that number could have looked a lot worse from a carryout standpoint today if they were going to keep that corn yield as strong as what they did,” Bennett says. “Bottom line is these exports are impressive to say the least.”

However, the carryout is still bearish for corn prices.

“You’d stand to reason we should move lower with 2 .1 billion bushels,” he adds.

(Farm Journal)

USDA lowered soybean yields a half bushel to 53 bu. per acre, matching trade expectations, and that lowered production by 48 million bushels, so not a surprise to Bennett.

“Some of these early-planted beans were phenomenal, quite frankly,” Bennett says. “You get out into late-planted beans, it’s a little different story. There were a lot of extremely dry beans. I’ve got to think this moisture content being so low in the eastern Corn Belt, similar to what we saw in the western Corn Belt a year ago, probably factored in to dial that yield back just a little bit.”

The disappointment for the soybean bulls came with USDA lowering exports by 50 million bushels despite acknowledging the soybean sales commitments from China in the recent trade framework.

“I think they’re concerned about Chinese business showing up,” Bennett says. “Other than China, we’re going to have a hard time competing. As of right now, we’re certainly a little more expensive on the world market than what Brazil origin beans are.”

The compiled backlog of daily export sales, which showed just 12.2 million of soybeans sold to China and 22.6 million to unknown, also fell short of expectations.

“As far as these daily announcements go, that was a big disappointment, seeing that China really hadn’t done much of anything,” Bennett says.

For wheat, the report was bearish as U.S. carryout was raised 58 million bushels and global stocks surged 7.4 mmt higher.

USDA Reports Surprise the Market by Being a Non-Event

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 20:48:49 GMT

The USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports are generally the biggest market movers of the year, but this year the surprise was how the report turned out to be a non-event.

USDA pegged corn acreage at 95.2 million acres, which was in line with expectations, and down just 123,000 acres from the March intentions.

Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says it looks like some of the prevent plant acres in the East and South were offset by more acres getting planted in the western Corn Belt with an early spring.

“There are folks in the eastern Corn Belt, Ohio and down through the Delta, who lost some acres, there’s no question about it. A lot of folks felt like, well, maybe that was going to trump things and pull acres down a little,” he explains. “Our team felt like with all the folks we’d talked to, in northern Illinois, Iowa, into Nebraska and through both Dakotas, we were looking at a fair amount of additional corn acreage here and there. Clearly those offset one another.”

USDA reported corn plantings declined by 50,000 acres in Ohio, 100,000 acres each in Illinois and Minnesota, 200,000 acres in Kansas and 300,000 acres in Nebraska. Meanwhile, increases of 100,000 acres were reported for Michigan, Missouri and South Dakota, while North Dakota rose 50,000 acres.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Farmers planted 4.61 million more acres than in 2024, but Bennett says the corn market is actually breathing a sigh of relief as the economics clearly favored even more corn acres.

“There were folks out there tossing out some awfully big acreage numbers or just whisper numbers and certainly seed sales have shown that,” he says.

Soybean acreage was at 83.38 million, again in line with pre-report guesses. That’s down 115,000 from March, which was no surprise with negative margins, fear of China tariffs and a big South American crop.

Bennett says soybean acreage was down in 25 of the 29 major production states: “This last winter, a lot of folks felt like this bean market, especially with a big Brazilian crop, was going to go to $10 and below and stay there.”

Total wheat acreage was only up 40,000 from estimates but up 128,000 from March at 45.478 million. That’s down 1% from 2024. Farmers planted 33.3 million acres of winter wheat, 2.11 million acres of durum and 10 million of other spring wheat.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Cotton acreage came in above estimates at 10.1 million, as it was too early for prevent plant acres due to excessive rain and flooding to show up in this report. That number is still down 10% from 2024.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Quarterly stocks came in close to expectations for all the grains but did confirm larger stocks for wheat at 851 million bushels, up over 150 million from a year ago. Soybeans were at 1.008 billion bushels, up 38 million from 2024.

However, corn stocks at 4.64 billion bushels is down around 350 million from last year confirming strong demand, according to Bennett.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

“What that does is it says, hey, what we all thought was the case as far as disappearance was concerned, actually is the case. We didn’t get any bearish surprises here. Basis and spreads would have tried to tell us that we would get a bearish surprise,” he remarks.

Still, Bennett says this doesn’t jive with how low old crop corn prices are. He says this number and continued strong exports suggests old crop corn ending stocks at only 1.3 billion bushels so he hopes the market and the funds will finally recognize that in the July WASDE.

June WASDE Slightly Friendly for Corn and Wheat

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:56:12 GMT

While USDA rarely makes any revisions to yield or production in the June WASDE, this was a fairly benign report with only slight adjustments to the balance sheets.

Corn Carryout Lowered 50 Million Bushels
The agency made only slight revisions to U.S. corn ending stocks, lowering old crop 50 million bushels to 1.365 billion bushels with the same increase in exports. That resulted in lower carryout for new crop at 1.75 billion. (Graphic)

“We were looking for the 50 million bushel reduction in old crop stocks again due to the export pace and that is the exact drop we got to 1.365 billion bushels,” says Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net. “That decreases the new crop carryout estimate by the same 50 million bushels due to, again, reduction in carry in.”

However, Splitt says old crop corn doesn’t feel like its trading that tight of a carryout nor do the July/December spreads.

“That type of carryout in previous years with stocks to use at similar levels has seen July trading substantially higher than December at this time of year,” he adds. “One has to wonder if USDA is going to find bushels in the June stocks report because I don’t think the flat price and spreads are trading like the carryout is what they’re telling us.

South American Production Unchanged
Surprisingly, USDA left South American corn and soybean production unchanged. Splitt says they were looking for at least an increase in Brazil corn production above USDA’s 130 million metric tons due to the larger Safrinha corn crop.

“I’m surprised USDA didn’t increase the size of the Safrihna corn crop,” Splitt says. “That’s been a very common discussion point recently from a lot of the private analysts with estimates for that crop at 132 or 134 MMT. It seems to have gotten bigger over the last couple months.”

New Crop Wheat Ending Stocks Slightly Lower
USDA left winter wheat production essentially unchanged at 1.921 billion bushels, which Splitt thinks could go up in future reports. However, the agency did lower new crop wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 898 million. According to Splitt, that was due to a 25 million bushel increase in exports, mostly hard red winter wheat.

“I’m glad USDA acknowledged that we do have a very strong export pace for wheat for the new crop,” he says. “You know, we’ve got a very strong start to new crop sales. I think it’s the best in about 12 years or so.”

Soybean Ending Stocks Static
USDA also kicked the can down the road on U.S. ending stocks for soybeans with old crop at 350 million bushels and new crop at 295 million bushels.

World carryout was lowered 2.6 million tons on corn to 275.2 MMT and 3 million tons on wheat to 262.8 MMT, Soybean carryout increased by 1 million to 125.3 MMT.

The bigger reports come at the end of the month with USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage.

April WASDE Report Is Quiet, But Friendly For Corn

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 18:42:40 GMT

Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE), but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.

(Farm Journal)

Corn

(Farm Journal)

Traders expected an increase in exports the last two reports and the agency finally provided it. In the report, U.S. corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels, though this is partially offset by a reduction in feed and residual use. Ending stocks were cut 75 million bushels to a total of 1.465 billion bushels.

“In the February report and the March WASDE report, participants were looking for that corn export number to go right back up, but it was just too soon. It just made sense for USDA to wait until after the stocks report came out,” says Brian Splitt with AgMarket.net.

Splitt says the old crop corn carryout falling under 1.5 billion is price friendly and will help cushion the higher new crop balance sheets expected in the May WASDE, which will work in the nearly 4.7 million acre increase on corn.

“Assuming USDA sticks with a 181-type of a yield for their trendline yield on the May WASDE report, which will be the first new crop balance sheet that we get to take a look at, this reduction old crop stocks should keep the new crop balance sheet looking 1.9 or lower,” Splitt says. “I don’t think we’ll see a 2 billion bushel carryout on that report.”

Global trade changes for 2024/2025 include higher projected corn exports for the U.S. Imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, Turkey and Peru. Global corn ending stocks are decreased 1.3 million to 287.7 million tons.

(Farm Journal)

The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.35 per bushel.

Soybeans

In the April 10 report, U.S. soybean imports and crush were increased as ending stocks and soybean oil for biofuels decreased.

(Farm Journal)

USDA left South American production numbers static, but they did increase last year’s Brazilian soybean production by 1.5 million metric tons.

(Farm Journal)

“This is two months in a row where USDA has gone back and made some type of a revision to last year’s South American production, so the world bean stocks did get bigger by way of an increase in last year’s bean production,” Splitt says. “This had nothing to do with the estimate of this year’s crop.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024/25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised $0.02 to $0.45 cents per pound.

Wheat

USDA’s increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by 27 million bushels was slightly bearish and came from a 25 million bushel decrease in exports and 10 million bushel increase in imports for a second straight month. World stocks were raised around a half million tons.

“The increase in ending stocks has come from two adjustments,” Splitt says. “There was an increase in imports for wheat and a reduction in exports. Between the two, it totals 25 million bushels. But the thing that’s odd is they did the same exact thing last month. They increased imports and they reduced exports, and it was the same exact amount as well.”

(Farm Journal)

The season average farm price is unchanged at $5.50 per bushel.

USDA Shocks the Market By Estimating Farmers Will Plant 94 Million Acres of Corn

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 18:37:59 GMT

USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum kicked off on Thursday. Leading up to the event, market analysts and traders were focused on corn acres.

USDA’s first acreage estimate showed farmers could plant more corn acres this year, but fewer soybean and cotton acres.

Corn: 94 million acres, up 3.4 million acres from 2024
Soybeans: 84 million acres, down 3.1 million from last year
Sorghum: 6 million acres, down 300,000 from 2024
Wheat: 47 million, up 900,000 from last year
Cotton: 10 million acres, down 1.18 million from 2024

While acreage estimates didn’t really surprise some market analysts, it seemed to catch traders by surprise, as corn prices fell double digits while digesting the news.

“I suppose traders thought that maybe USDA would be just a little bit more reserved with its early estimate,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “I’ll tell you what, based on what we know about on farm margins and budgets, it really shouldn’t be a surprise. I’ve personally been kind of working in my head with a number that’s actually higher than 94. So the 94, even though it was higher than pre-report expectations, I don’t think it should be a shock to anybody.”

AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett was on-site at the Ag Outlook Forum when the acreage numbers hit. He also wasn’t surprised by such a large number for corn, pointing out he also thinks it could trend higher.

“In all honesty, when you look at the economics of things, I really struggle to think we’re going to be below, for instance, the acreage we saw two years ago, which was 94.6 million acres,” Bennett says. “I thought the Outlook Forum would come out a little bit conservative. I guess I was right on that. But I do think the the overwhelming trend should be higher from here, especially looking at what the economics have been leading up to this.”

U.S. major row crop acreage 2025 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/TrWFmNiFT4
— Dept. of Agriculture (@USDA) February 27, 2025

The story could be in soybeans. USDA expects soybean acres to fall to 84 million acres,

“It could be a story, especially if the yields come in light,” Vaclavik says. “I think, though, there is a narrative or thought out there that if the U.S. has a light crop, there’s plenty of beans around the world and the U.S. will just end up exporting less. That very well may be true.”

Here's a quick 👀 at USDA's acreage estimate from their 2025 #Agricultural Outlook Forum for #corn #soybeans #wheat #rice #cotton & #milo 🌽🌱🌾☁️ 👇👇 Next up March intentions #oatt #AgTwitter #Plant25 @TerrainAg pic.twitter.com/poTwx7mgwM
— John Newton (@New10_AgEcon) February 27, 2025

At the same time, Vaclavik adds, if farmers plant less soybeans, it puts more pressure on South America to produce a crop.

Ending Stocks Follow Acreage Shifts

More corn acres means corn ending stocks jumped 425 million bushels, but the total is still below 2 billion and likely inflated, according to Bennett.

More corn acres prompted USDA to increase corn ending stocks by 425 million bushels, but the number is still below 2 billion.

(USDA/Lori Hays)

“Keep in mind, over the last five years, the [February number] has actually been too high verses the final number,” he says.

Soybean carryover dropped 60 million bushels, reflecting 3 million fewer acres.

Your Next Read — EXCLUSIVE: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins Provides Timing Update on $10 Billion in Emergency Relief Payments

On-Farm Income Is An Oxymoron This Year

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:28:10 GMT

One trend is showing that while farm income generally exceeded those of other U.S. households, the majority of farm households had farming losses and were getting the majority of their income from off farm sources, AgDay-TV reported on Monday.

Your Next Read on AgWeb: Biden Administration’s 45Z Announcement Leaves More Questions Than Answers

How Big Were Corn and Soybean Yields for 2024?

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 16:01:37 GMT

Farmers and market watchers anticipate seeing some big reports unveiled on Friday as the annual Crop Production Summary is released, AgDay-TV shared earlier today.

One question on farmers’ minds is whether the 2024 corn and soybean crops were as big as many of them and market watchers thought.

Rich Nelson, chief strategist with Allendale, Inc., told AgDay the numbers will likely be a little lower but not far off from what was expected.

“Trade is expecting a small decline in corn numbers, likely a drop from 183.1 bushels per acre to 182.7, and we agree with that. We’re at 182.6,” Nelson says. “So the starting point for corn is a slightly lower production discussion.”

For soybeans, Nelson says trade also anticipates a minimal decline of maybe 8 million bushels lower for production.

Will There Be A Change In Demand?
Kent Beadle, with Paradigm Futures, says a change in demand is unlikely for wheat or beans, with wheat carry out projected at 800 million bushels and soybeans at 457 million bushels, down just 13 million. But corn demand could be raised, cutting ending stocks.

“I do think that we’re going to have increases in demand for corn,” Beadle says. “We should see ethanol grind go up more. We should see exports go up a little bit more.”

While USDA will be providing the final production report of the marketing year on Friday, it’s only one of several reports released which includes WASDE, Winter Wheat Seedings and Quarterly Stocks. Watch the video for AgDay’s latest insights on those reports and more.

Your Next Read: What Triggered Wednesday’s Selloff in Grain and Livestock Markets?

Chip Flory: Here's What Q4 USDA Reports Signal Ahead of Mid-January

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 22:06:42 GMT

USDA’s November Crop Production Report delivered the last chance to adjust the supply-side of balance sheets for corn and soybeans this year. The next chance comes in the January Annual Production Summary.

That means the December Supply and Demand Report will include a:

National average corn yield of 183.1 bu. per acre on 82.7 million harvested acres for a crop of 15.143 billion bushels.
National average soybean yield of 51.7 bu. per acre on 86.3 million harvested acres for a crop of 4.461 billion bushels.

There is evidence the supply-side of the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn and soybeans is still a moving target. The corn yield was down 0.7 bu. from October, and the soybean yield dropped 1.4 bu. per acre from the month prior. Both suggest there is some work to do before USDA settles on total supplies for the 2024/25 marketing year. That means there is potential for more market volatility ahead of the mid-January Annual Production Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports. With the supply trend down month-to-month, the risk of crop cuts could provide selling opportunities for both markets leading up to those reports.

Demand Questions

USDA cut 60 million bushels from corn production between October and November and made no change to the demand-side of the balance sheet. That means carryover was cut 60 million bushels from October.

Some expected USDA to increase estimated exports to reflect solid demand for U.S. corn ahead of the elections. Others expected USDA to increase estimated feed and residual use to reflect heavy hog and cattle weights. Neither happened, but that’s another potential change traders will watch for in upcoming reports.

Corn was left with a carryover estimate of 1.938 billion bushels and a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.9%. That’s not a weight on corn prices, but it’s also not tight enough to lift prices without crop concerns from South America or more demand for U.S. supplies.

USDA cut 120 million bushels from soybean production from October to November and cut use 40 million bushels with estimated exports down 25 million from a month earlier and estimated crush down 15 million bushels. The net result was an 80-million-bushel cut to estimated soybean carryover. Now that’s a bullish headline.

However, carryover is still estimated at 470 million bushels with a 10.8% stocks-to-use ratio. That’s a big enough cushion to absorb some lost bushels from South America and a slightly bigger U.S. demand base without pushing prices higher. It’s also big enough that if Brazil and Argentina escape crop issues this winter, the U.S. soybean market will likely be forced to search for more demand ahead of 2025 plantings.

Your Next Read: Senate Ag Committee Members: 1 in 5 Farmers at Risk Financially

USDA Makes Only Minor Changes to Corn and Soybean Yield in October WASDE

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 21:02:09 GMT

Unlike some past years, the October WASDE report didn’t provide much for the bulls or the bears. USDA made very few changes to the U.S. and world grain balance sheets.

The agency raised corn yield 0.2 bu. per acre to a record 183.8 bu., but that bucked the trend of early estimates, which indicated a 0.2 bu. drop.

USDA increased corn yield in Iowa by 2 bushels to 214, left Illinois yield unchanged at 222 bu., but lowered Indiana 8 bu. to 202 and Ohio 4 bu. at 183.

U.S. corn production was raised slightly to 15.2 billion bushels, but with lower carry-in, the 2024-25 ending stocks for corn were cut by 58 million bushels from last month to 1.999 billion.

“This number really wasn’t that much of a change. The carryout, just shy of 2 billion, is comfortable at this point in time,” says Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net.

However, he notes USDA did lower Chinese corn imports by 2 million metric tons, which is still well above China’s 13 million metric ton import forecast.

“If the Chinese number is more accurate, and they’re only importing 13 million metric tons instead of 21, that will be bearish for the world balance sheet and be price negative,” McCormick says.

Oct. 11, 2024, WASDE Report

(Lindsey Pound)

On soybeans, USDA lowered yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 53.1 bu., which was in line with trade estimates and is still a record.

USDA again raised yield in Iowa by 1 bu. and Illinois by 2 bu., while Ohio and Indiana were both down 3 bu.

At least the soybean yield didn’t increase, says Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions.

“A lot of people were expecting a higher yield. We still have a big crop, and I think it would have been a lot bigger with a better finish, but we’re still hearing these later beans that finished under dry conditions have taken a hit on yield. We’ll see what happens in subsequent reports,” he adds.

Frye says the market also got a reprieve with USDA leaving ending stocks at 550 million bushels, but the carryover is still 200 million above last year and burdensome to the market.

“The balance sheet is still way too large on ending stocks at 550, and I do think the export demand is still way too high from USDA,” Frye says. “We’re just not seeing enough Chinese business or export business in general to lower that number on the ending stocks down especially if Brazil starts receiving timely rain.”

In fact, he thinks USDA could be overstating soybean demand by as much as 100 million bushels, which would take ending stocks well over 600 million and mean sub-$10 prices.

Will USDA's Bullish Report Surprise Stop the Bleeding in the Corn Market?

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 19:50:29 GMT

Grains ended mixed after the July WASDE, which provided a bullish surprise on corn.

Arlan Suderman with StoneX says the old crop and especially new crop ending stocks came in well below trade estimates.

“A little bit of creative accounting by USDA. It looked like they were trying to solve for a desired solution in keeping new crop stocks below 2.1 billion bushels,” he says.

The June 28 reports had quarterly stocks and acreage come in higher on corn than expected so USDA added the 1.4 additional acres which increased production but offset it through higher demand.

“So USDA increased feed usage rather than taking it down, they increased it by 75 million bushels for both this year and for next year, along with increased exports by 75 million bushels,” he states.

However, Suderman says isn’t likely to stop the bleeding in the corn market or get the funds to cover their record short position.

“The funds know farmer is the big long, holding big positions, probably has close to 3 billion bushels he has to move off the farm before this next harvest unless the crop really take a turn to the South. So they’re not worried about holding on to their short positions unless a legitimate weather problem develops,” he says.

USDA only made slight adjustments in ending stocks in the WASDE but did lower production by 15 million bushels and new crop ending stocks by 20 million bushels.

However, Suderman says USDA may be overly optimistic about demand with the current export pace.

“When you look at Chinese buying or any customer buying at this point. Normally we have 300 to 400 million bushels of new crop business on the books, we barely have 50 million bushels,” he says.

Wheat got a bearish surprise as production was raised 134 million bushels from the June report and well above expectations with higher yield and harvested acres.

Suderman says I think everyone was surprised with the higher figure.

“We all expected an increase in the size of the crop but not as big as what USDA did and so now the market need to find a way we can clear these prices,” he says.

He says this may give the funds even more ammunition to push the short side of the market unless there is a change in the Black Sea crop and exports.

“Russia right now is trying to drive prices lower to gut through the harvest when they need to move wheat out, but longer term whether they restrict exports is the key,” he adds.

The cattle market bounced on Friday still trying to recover from losses early in the week with softer cutouts and Southern cash business.

“Seasonally we tend to see the high behind us. We held on to the higher product market two to three weeks longer than what we would have anticipated that has started breaking now. Does that mean that’s the beginning of our seasonal trend lower? That is something we’ll be watching over the coming week or two,” he says.

However, he says it is likely intermediate highs are in unless the consumer demand outperforms.

USDA Report Provides Bullish Surprise on Corn But Bearish for Wheat

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 16:56:27 GMT

USDA throws a bullish surprise at the corn markets by increasing production by 240 million bushels, but increasing demand more on exports and feed and residual.

Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says that resulted in a 34 million bushel drop in new crop ending stocks to 2.097 billion bushels, and the old crop stocks were also lowered by 5 million.

He says this should stop the bleeding in the corn market for now but he says the question will be whether or not USDA’s aggressive demand projects can hold.

Soybean yield was left unchanged and with a 400,000 acre drop in planted acreage production was lowered by 15 million bushels from last month to 4.435 billion. Ending stocks were also lowered by 20 million bushels to 435 million.

Meanwhile, USDA made only slight adjustments to South American production.

Wheat saw the most bearish numbers with a 134 million bushel increase in production due to higher yield and harvested acreage to a total of 2.008 billion bushels. Exports were raised 25 million bushels, but ending stocks were still 98 million bushels higher for new crop at 856 million.

McCormick says this was bearish for wheat and they expect production figures to go up in futures reports.

Is There Any Hope for the Corn Market?

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 20:10:07 GMT

For the week September corn was down 32¼ cents, December corn fell 32 cents, September soybeans lost 18 cents, November soybeans dropped 14¼ cents, September soybean meal lost $6.10 per short ton and September soybean oil fell 18 points. September Chicago wheat fell 2¼ cents, September Kansas City wheat was down ¾ cents and September Minneapolis wheat dropped 3¾ cents.

Corn futures posted lower weekly closes, falling more than 30¢. Part of the move was tied to the bearish USDA reports with acreage up 1.4 million to 91.5 million.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the corn figures were also bearish compared with expectations. Acreage came in 1.122 million above the average trade guess and quarterly stocks were 120 million bushels above estimates.

“Many of us thought there would be a few less acres in corn and it turned out to be more. Corn prices reacted quickly and violently due to the shock,” he says.

Some in the trade had bet on lower acres due to weather issues this spring, which forced producers to take prevent plant, and because of flooded fields in the northwestern Corn Belt. However, Gulke says the survey cutoff was June 15 so those acres have not been accounted for yet but will be reconciled by USDA through lower harvested acres.

“We gained 1.4 million acres on the survey and likely lost around 1 million acres in Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota due to flooding,” he says.

The state-by-state comparisons from the June acreage to the March intentions report showed the biggest corn acreage increases in Kansas, which was up 500,000 acres. Iowa was up 300,000 and Minnesota added 200,000 acres. Other states added smaller amounts, but Illinois and Indiana were unchanged, according to Gulke.

June 28, 2024, USDA Acreage Report

(USDA, Lori Hays)

The quarterly stocks figure on corn was also bearish at 4.993 billion bushels, which was 890 million bushels above 2023.

“Looking at the stocks report, I felt they were overstating the stocks, and they increased the stocks in corn rather than decreasing them. All our talk about reconciling what we felt was a missed number, it got worse,” Gulke says.

Is there any hope left for the corn market?

Gulke says yes because the market has removed all the risk premium and the weather in July and August will be much more important for the corn crop than the weather in June.

“If we get into this hot dry weather for summer that’s been widely predicted from the weather experts then we have a chance to rally back again. As quickly as we fell, we could put that 20¢ to 30¢ back on again. The trade will be focused on the six- to 10-day forecast, so we have to be pretty nimble on our marketing plan,” he explains.

Gulke is also optimistic these lower corn prices will stimulate demand by end users.

“Some flash sales and significant corn buying by China would be wonderful,” he speculates.

Plus, exports are already running 38% ahead of a year ago.

To add insult to injury, Gulke says the National Agriculture Statistics Service had problems with the release of the report, and it was delayed for much of the viewing public, including farmers. He says the market crashed shortly after that.

“In the first minute after the report came out the market took out the highs and the lows in September corn. It’s not manipulation, it’s probably fast markets or algorithms kicking in, but the market was moving and once we finally got the information we said, no wonder,” he says.

Gulke says this calls for USDA to stop putting the numbers out during trading hours because it puts farmers at a disadvantage.

“We need a level playing field because this creates volatility that costs farmers money,” he adds.

For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com.

10 Charts to Show Farmers' Biggest Challenges Identified in the USDA June Acreage and Grain Stock Report

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 18:44:58 GMT

USDA’s June Acreage report released Friday sent chills through the corn market. With planted acres for corn above pre-trade estimates at 91.5 million acres, the combination of more acres and growing stocks sent corn prices tumbling.

Here’s a quick recap of what USDA had to say in Friday’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports:

2024 corn planted acreage at 91.5 million, which is down 3 percent from 2023, but above the 90 million acres in the March Prospective Plantings report.
Soybean acreage was pegged at 86.1 million acres, up 3 percent from last, but down from the 86.5 million in March.
All wheat is estimated at 47.2 million acres, slightly lower than the 47.5 in March, but down 5 percent from 2023.
All cotton planted acres for 2024 is estimated at 11.7 million acres, up 14 percent from last year.
The June Grain Stocks Report estimates on farm stocks are up even more, up 36.5 percent. USDA says there are more than 3 billion bushels of corn currently stored on the farm, which is the highest level since 1988.
Farmers are also holding on to more soybeans. Soybean stocks are up 22% overall. On farm stocks are even more shocking, up more than 46% since June of last year.

An In-Depth Look at Acreage Shifts

The report did come with a special note. USDA cautions farmers reported not being finished with planting when the survey was conducted between May 30 and June 16. “Nationally, corn left to be planted was 3.36 million acres. Soybeans left to be planted for the United States was 12.8 million acres,” USDA noted at the top of the report.

So, where did the planted corn acres shift in 2024 compared to 2023? According to USDA, the biggest shift to more corn acres came in the West, Western Plains and parts of the East Coast. Parts of the Southern growing areas saw a big dip in corn acres this year.

Percent change in corn acreage in USDA’s June Acreage report.

(Lori Hayes )

As for soybeans, the shift to more soybeans happened in the Upper Midwest, Louisiana and Kentucky. Key growing acres like Iowa, saw acreage up 1 percent year-over-year. Illinois is up 3 percent.

Percent change in soybean creage in USDA’s June Acreage report.

(Lori Hayes )

In Friday’s report, USDA stated of the total acres planted and to be planted, 3.36 million acres were reported as remaining to be planted when the survey was conducted.

USDA’s corn planted and harvested acreage estimates over the past decade.

(USDA NASS)

USDA says of the total acres planted and to be planted, 12.8 million acres were reported as remaining to be planted when the survey was conducted.

U.S. soybean planted and harvested acreage over the past decade.

(USDA NASS)

A big question after the March Prospective Plantings report was the loss of principal crop acres, which fell 6.3 million acres year over year. But in the June report, USDA shows the loss of principal crop acres wasn’t as much, however, we are still seeing big losses in some state year-over-year.

Change in principal crop acreage compared to 2023.

(USDA NASS)

USDA says crops included in area considered principal acres include corn, sorghum, oats, barley, rye, winter wheat, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice, soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible beans, chickpeas, potatoes, sugarbeets, canola, and proso millet. Harvested acreage is used for all hay, tobacco, and sugarcane in computing total area planted and includes double cropped acres and unharvested small grains planted as cover crops.

Changes in principal crop acres over the past decade.

(USDA NASS)

Changes in principal crops since the March survey.

(USDA NASS )

The Amount of Grain Stored on Farm Skyrockets

In addition to the June Acreage report, USDA also released an updated look at Grain Stocks as of July 1. It showed farmers are holding on to a surprising amount of old crop corn with stocks up 22 percent compared to June 2023.

The June Grain Stocks Report estimates on farm stocks are up even more, up 36.5 percent. USDA says there are more than 3 billion bushels of corn currently stored on the farm, which is the highest level since 1988.

Corn Stocks on farm

(USDA NASS)

Farmers are also holding on to more soybeans. Soybean stocks are up 22% overall. On farm stocks are even more shocking, up more than 46% since June of last year.

Soybean stocks on farm

(USDA NASS)

However, both sorghum and durum wheat stocks declined compared to a year ago, according to USDA.

Grain Stocks

(USDA NASS)

Related Market Insights:

Corn Prices Tank After USDA’s Shocking Acreage Increase

Jerry Gulke: Where Do Prices Go From Here?

Corn Pushes to New Lows After Bearish Acreage and Stocks

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 21:39:45 GMT

Grains closed lower after bearish USDA Reports with sharp losses in corn.

USDA raised corn average by 1.4 million acres over the March intensions to 91.5 million acres. Quarterly Stocks for corn were up 890 million bushels over a year ago to nearly 5 billion bushels.

Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says those numbers combined to push corn into new lows for the move and July under the $4 mark.

He says the higher corn area came primarily from Kansas, Iowa and Minnesota, which accounted for about 1 million acres of the increase.

Soybean acreage fell around 400,000 acres to 86.1 million which was friendly but Nellinger says it doesn’t make a big dent in the balance sheets as carryout built from last year grew by 174 million bushels.

November soybeans managed to hold $11 and he says they would have likely been higher without the double digit losses in corn.

Total wheat acres were down around 260,000 from March but quarterly stocks came in at 702 million bushels, up 132 million bushels from last year adding pressure to prices.

Cattle futures reversed and ended lower on profit taking end of month and end of quarter and with cash only steady in the South at $190 and $1 higher in the North at $198 verses the weighted average.

Hog futures saw short covering and profit taking end of month and quarter and deflected the bearish numbers in the Hogs and Pigs Report.

Corn Prices Tank After USDA's Shocking Acreage Increase

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 21:00:51 GMT

USDA sent the grain market lower after mostly bearish Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Reports, leaving farmers to wonder where prices go from here.

Corn tanked and hit fresh near-term lows with both a bearish quarterly stocks and acreage number, which pushed July corn below the $4 mark.

USDA’s corn acreage at 91.5 million acres was up around 1.4 million from March.

Market analysts say the increase isn’t as much about weather or economics but rather the March planting intentions being too low to begin with.

Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net, says: “We felt all along those March numbers were artificially low and the grower had seen the lowest prices in about three years. The sentiment was so low most producers weren’t overly optimistic about exactly what they were going to do as far as planting was concerned, especially with high input costs still.”

Bennett says the additional acres will add to an already burdensome corn ending stocks number.

“If you get 181 bu. per acre, you’re starting to talk about a 2.5 billion bushel carry again. Even if you drop down to 179 bu., you are still looking at around a 2.3 billion bushel ending stocks figure.”

USDA’s acreage surveys were taken before the flooding in the northwestern Corn Belt, so those acres will not be accounted for until later in the season.

Prevent plant acres are also not included, and the Farm Service Agency will not release that data until the end of summer.

Soybean acreage was more friendly at 86.1 million, which was down around 400,000 from March intentions with a shift to corn and other crops.

Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says: “I think corn probably got some of those acres. I know cotton acres were up a whole bunch too, so maybe we had a few less beans planted in the mid-South Delta region because we know cotton was up over a million acres.”

However, he’s doubtful lower acreage will ease the soybean balance sheet a whole lot.

“We have a pretty decent carryout on the balance sheet now. Moving into new crop, I don’t see us being real tight, even with this reduction in acres. You’ve got to remember that China so far hasn’t booked really anything for new crop.”

Quarterly stocks were bearish for soybeans up 174 million from last year. Corn was just under 5 billion bushels, up almost 900 million from last year, which runs counter to the strong cash basis levels.

“There’s a lot of places, especially in the West, with awfully strong basis levels,” Bennett says. “Right here, in the heart of central Illinois, we’ve had a very large processor move from 5 over to 25 cents over in a matter of days over the last couple of weeks. It evidence of a grower who is fairly tight-fisted.”

Total wheat acres were down around 260,000 from March, but quarterly stocks came in at 702 million bushels, up 132 million bushels from last year, which added pressure to prices.

The grain markets had sold off coming into the reports, and Frye says funds were selling with rains in the eastern Corn Belt and cooler temperatures.

He says it will take a big change in the weather during July to get the funds to cover their short position and turn the trend.

USDA Finally Reconciles Old Crop Corn Demand in May WASDE

Fri, 10 May 2024 22:34:29 GMT

For the week July corn climbed 9 ½¢, and December corn was 9 ¼¢ higher. July soybeans were up 4¢, November soybeans ended 4 ¾¢ higher, July soybean meal lost 30¢ per short ton, with July soybean oil climbing 136 points. July Kansas City wheat gained 23¢, July Chicago wheat soared 41¢ and July Minneapolis wheat was up 5 ½¢.

Grain markets were all higher for the week and closed up on Friday after the May WASDE Report. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says in the report USDA finally rectified the old crop corn carryover figure trimming it by 100 million bushels with an increase in demand.

“They got a good start. They adjusted ethanol and exports. They didn’t do anything to feed and residual, but when you look at how much we’ve used in the first few months of the marketing year I think there’s room there to increase that as well,” Gulke says, adding he thinks USDA will need to continue to lower carryout.

Gulke flagged the 100 million bushels of corn disappearance after the USDA Quarterly Stocks at the end of March and suggested USDA had over reported the size of the U.S. crop. So, he says the cut lowered old crop ending stocks to 2.02 billion bushels, and he thinks that figure could be shaved even further.

That now becomes the carry in and extrapolating that into the 2024/25 balance sheet he says, “Even with acreage remaining the same and a 181-bu.-per-acre yield the new crop carryout is not more than 100 million bushels above this year at 2.1 billion bushels. That is a far cry from the bearish 2.5 to 3 billion bushels some were predicting earlier this year without a weather problem in the U.S. and a record crop in Brazil.”

He thinks that caught the market by surprise.

“It’s not so much about how bullish this report was but more about how negative it was not,” he adds.

The fact that USDA used a 181 bu.-per-acre estimate for yield also suggests even a 1-bu.-to-2-bu. cut could push ending stocks on new crop corn to under 2 billion bushels.

“Each bushel reduction with 82 million harvested acres equates to 80 million bushels,” Gulke says. “So, a 2 bu.-cut equals 160 million bushels, and now you’re down to 1.9 billion bushels.”

However, he says corn prices might be a bit high in respect to current supplies, closing in on $5.

USDA did not change the old crop ending stocks for soybeans, leaving those at 340 million. New crop came in at 445 million bushels, which is up 105 million from last year. He says this might suggest soybeans are too high currently trading above $12 for both old and new crop.

“Yes, it looks a bit concerning,” Gulke says, but he admits that it still has to do with what the weather does.

Especially since USDA lowered Brazil soybean production for the current market year by only 1 million metric tons to 154 mmt and projected a record 169 mmt soybean crop for the new marketing year.

Wheat production and ending stocks were close to expectations, Gulke says, at 1.86 billion and 766 million bushels respectively. However, the market has been rallying and made new highs for the move in all three exchanges on Friday.

“Maybe its fund short covering or the realization of the global weather issues,” Gulke says. “Wheat has a tendency to turn around and go straight up for no good reason at all, and you don’t hear or see the fundamental reason until the market top is in. It turned positive quite a while ago.”

Gulke says the rally Friday in wheat wasn’t about the WASDE but instead the market has had a keen eye on the global production numbers especially with reports of dryness and frost concerns in Russia.

“When global wheat competitors have a wheat problem we benefit from it,” he says.

USDA lowered new crop production in Russia by 3.5 million metric tons from last year.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com.

AgDay TV Markets Now: Don Roose says Conab Trumps USDA with Soybeans Reversing Higher. Is it Bottoming Action?

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 23:00:33 GMT

Grains close mixed digesting Conab’s crop estimates which showed production cuts in Brazil and the February WASDE, which was bearish soybeans and neutral to slightly bearish for corn and wheat.

USDA raised U.S. soybean ending stocks by 35 million bushels (mb) to 315 million, by lowering exports the same amount. Corn ending stocks were raised 10 mb to 2.172 billion bushels (bb) and wheat carryover was upped 10 mb to 658 mb.

USDA did acknowledge the impact of the historic drought on Brazil’s production but only lowered soybeans 1 million metric tons (mmt) to 156 mmt and revised last year’s crop up by 2 million to 162 mmt. That and the higher U.S. ending stocks were bearish. However, market analysts say those numbers were trumped by Conab’s estimate for Brazil beans, at 149.4 million metric tons, down nearly 6 million from last month.

Don Roose, market analyst with U.S. Commodities, says, “The Conab numbers were positive for the most part, and there’s a big disconnect between the USDA and what Conab is saying.”

Technically Roose says soybeans scored a hook reversal and so he’s optimistic the market is trying to signal a bottom. “Remember June 8 we tried to put in a low at $11.75 ¼ and we rallied almost $2.00 on weather concerns. When you went down yesterday to $11.79 it held, so we are basing but let’s see if we get back to the $12.05 area and can get some fund buying coming in.”

The rally in soybean oil, Roose says, also helped pull soybeans back higher as the market saw technical buying after holding a double bottom support area from May 31, 2023 with chatter of growing biodiesel demand.

Corn made more contract lows drug down by the wheat and the higher U.S. ending stocks. USDA cut Brazil corn production by 3 million metric tons to 124 million. But it’s still well above Conab’s estimate of 113.4 mmt. Roose says the corn market is trying to respect that. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty about the corn crop in South America as Argentina’s crop is midway through pollination and Brazil’s second crop corn just being planted. So, we don’t have a lot of risk premium built in.”

How Bearish was USDA's Data Dump for the Corn and Soybean Markets?

Sat, 13 Jan 2024 23:01:53 GMT

USDA’s January reports were bearish for row crops with the agency shocking the market raising corn and soybean yields and production. While the addition to final ending stocks wasn’t substantially higher than December, it caught the market off guard and South American production numbers didn’t help.

USDA raised corn yields 2.4 bushels per acre to a record 177.3 with higher yields in the Eastern Corn Belt and that raised production 108 million bushels and to a new record of 15.234 billion bushels. However, that was offset by a nearly 583,000 acre drop in harvested acres and higher demand, so ending stocks were only raised 31 million bushels. But market analyst Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says that was still a bearish shock, “I think the trade was leaning to very pretty much a slightly unchanged yield number or even a slight adjustment down this upward revision of what they did. I haven’t seen it historically, but I’m guessing it’s one of the bigger upward revisions we’ve ever had in January. And there’s no doubt about it. Trade got caught flat footed in the markets reacting to it. You know, it’s not what we needed to see we already had a burdensome supply.”

The corn market reaction was negative, but McCormick is hoping the old adage that markets sometimes bottom when the news is the worst holds true. “Hopefully we can kind of wash this out today and then come out of a three-day weekend and with an argument we priced in the bearishness and maybe get some of those seasonal bounce.”

On soybeans the agency also bumped up yields by .7 bushels but with a nearly 435,000 acre drop in harvest acres, production was up just 36 million bushels, which went right to ending stocks.

McCormick says, “The crop plain and simple just performed better what we thought then the yield number is definitely a little bit negative offsetting that was a reduction in the harvested acres, but you know you’re adding to the ending stocks.”

South American estimates were also disappointing. On corn USDA cut Brazil’s crop 2 million metric tons and left Argentina unchanged. Brazil soybean production dropped 4 million metric tons, offset by a 2 million metric ton increase in Argentina. But the revisions were minor compared to private estimates.

McCormick adds, “Your production between those two countries is easily over 200 million their previous record production was 185 a few years back so the fact is, their crop is not down enough to offset our increased production.”

Wheat had the most constructive numbers with winter wheat seedings down 2.27 million acres from last year and ending stocks were lowered 11 million bushels.

Where Do Corn and Soybean Prices Go Now After USDA’s Yield Shock?

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 23:04:32 GMT

Grains all closed lower for the week. March corn fell 13¾ cents, March soybeans were down 32 cents, March soybean meal lost $7.30 per short ton and March soybean oil gained 62 points. March Chicago wheat fell 20 cents, March Kansas City wheat was down 12¾ cents and March Minneapolis wheat slid 13 cents.

Just when farmers thought the corn and soybean markets couldn’t get any more bearish, USDA provides another shock to prices with the January reports. USDA raised corn yield 2.4 bu. to a record 177.3 bu. per acre. The increase was partially offset by a nearly 600,000 acre drop in harvested acres, but production was still raised by 108 million bushels to a new record of 15.342 billion bushels.

John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says he wasn’t totally surprised considering the harvest results from his clients.

“You did hear that from the countryside with guys talking about the amount of corn they got or how things finished out with a surprising corn crop. Deep down inside, I guess I wasn’t surprised we saw that yield jump, but it was a big number,” he says. “Obviously, that just trickles through the entire balance sheet.”

Jim McCormick, AgMarket.Net, says USDA also raised demand, though it wasn’t as bearish as it appeared, as USDA only raised ending stocks by 31 million bushels. However, it still caught the market off guard.

“I think the trade was leaning toward a slightly unchanged yield number or even a slight adjustment down versus the upward revision they did,” McCormick says. “I haven’t seen it historically, but I’m guessing it’s one of the bigger upward revisions we’ve ever had in January, and there’s no doubt about it, the trade got caught flat footed. It’s not what we needed to see — we already had a burdensome supply.”

March corn hit a new contract low of $4.41 on Friday. Will corn see a lot more downside pressure trying to price in the extra bushels?

“We broke $4.60 on March and closed well under that Friday. That was a bigger multiyear trendline coming through that we needed to stay above, at least from the seller’s standpoint on the technical side,” Heinberg says. “However, the December contract before expiration went down to $4.47 and March gravitated back to that level toward the end of the day. Maybe that’s a key number that can hold.”

Market experts are hopeful with the holiday weekend some of the bearish sentiment will subside and Friday’s break in prices will create some sort of seasonal bounce. However, Heinberg says the charts look defensive and it might be difficult for the corn market to find traction as any large rally will be met with farmer selling.

On the soybean side, USDA also bumped up yield by 0.7 bu. to 50.6 bu., but with a nearly 435,000 acre drop in harvest acres, production was up just 36 million bushels. That raised endings stocks to 280 million bushels. Again, Heinberg says that was higher than the trade estimated.

“I think the higher soybean yield definitely came into play. We kept talking about carryout and that 280 million bushels isn’t a big supply, but it’s more than the market was anticipating,” he explains.

South American estimates were also disappointing to the trade, as Heinberg says the revisions were minor compared to the private estimates. USDA cut Brazil’s corn crop 2 million metric tons, which is still well above private and Conab estimates, and left Argentina unchanged. Brazil’s soybean production was lowered 4 million metric tons to 157 million, offset by a 2 million metric ton increase in Argentina. The revisions were minor compared to private estimates.

Heinberg says: “I really think the soybean market is probably pricing in a 150 million metric ton Brazilian crop.”

He thinks it will take even lower production in Brazil to get positive price reaction.

“Your production between those two countries is easily over 200 million. Their previous record production was 185 a few years back, so the fact is their crop is not down enough to offset our increased production,” McCormick adds.

March soybeans hit a low of $12.06 and bounced on Friday. Will $12.00 technical support be able to hold longer term without a big decrease in Brazil production? Heinberg says it might be a tough lift without much lower Brazil production or a pick up in demand from the lower prices.

Wheat had the most constructive numbers with winter wheat seedings down 2.27 million acres from last year at 34.4 million. Hard red winter wheat acres accounted for 24 million, soft red winter for 6.86 million and white for 3.54 million. Plus, U.S. ending stocks were lowered 11 million bushels to 648 million. While that was constructive, Heinberg says the market disregarded it and instead followed corn and soybeans lower.

Trade Gears Up for Big January USDA Reports: What Could Move the Market?

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 15:56:13 GMT

Friday will be one of the busiest report days of the year for the grain markets with several major reports. What’s likely to move the market? Trade guesses indicate only minor adjustments to U.S. balance sheets, so traders will be watching South America crop estimates and, especially, the quarterly grain stocks.

USDA’s Annual Production Summary provides the final crop estimates for corn and soybeans for 2023. However, the trade guesses indicate they aren’t expecting much change.

Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, says: “There’s probably not going to be a huge shock on yield, a touch higher, a tough lower. There’s probably not going to be much of change in acreage — maybe a small tweak here and there. On the demand side, it’s the same, tweaks here and there.”

In terms of South America, analysts say USDA needs to come down on Brazil production due to the drought. They’re above private estimates and nearly 6 million metric tons higher than Conab on soybeans and more than 11 million metric tons higher on corn.

Brian Grete, Editor, Pro Farmer says: “On global production, the South American production numbers, in part Brazil, those are too high from where USDA was in December, but they’re not likely to get down as low as the private estimates.”

The biggest surprise historically has been in the Quarterly Grain Stocks, especially corn stocks.

“It could be a big wild card because of the proportion of on-farm storage verses commercial storage, and we’ve seen a real uptick in the cash corn basis recently,” says Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics.

“Quarterly stocks are always a wild card, and it’s impossible to gauge those big misses from low to high. If there’s going to be a shock, it’s likely going to come from the quarterly stocks,” Nellinger adds.

Winter wheat seedings will also be released and are expected to be down from last year.

“Winter wheat acreage is probably going to be down to 800,000 or 1 million acres. Everyone is anticipating that,” Grete says.

Bearish reports have already been priced in, but Grete says with grains struggling to attract buyer interest, bullish data is likely needed to put in market bottoms.

November WASDE Leans Bearish for All Major Crops Causing Grains to Sell Off

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 23:48:32 GMT

USDA raised yield, production and ending stocks for both corn and soybeans in the November WASDE leading to a bearish reaction in the markets. Corn took out the September low but soybeans also fell and did technical damage. However, market analysts say soybeans are likely to quickly turn the focus back to South American weather which has been supportive.

USDA’s nearly two-bushel corn yield bump to 174.9 bushels per acre was the most bearish shock and goes against the trend of yields continuing to decrease from the October to the November report. However, USDA also raised demand by 125 million bushels which offset the record production estimate of 15.2 billion bushels. So, ending stocks were only raised 45 million bushels. Market analysts say it could have been much worse with so many harvest reports from farmers of better-than-expected yields.

Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net, says, “That was not as bad as it could have been because the USDA did offset quite a bit of that additional production with additional demand. They increased ethanol by 25 million bushels, and they increase the feed residual and export category by 50 million bushels each. So, 125 million bushels of extra demand definitely kept that report from being kind of a knock your socks off bearish type number.”

USDA also raised soybean yield .3 bushels instead of lowering it as some estimates projected and again bucked the historical trend. However, here USDA made no changes to either crush or exports, so the net result was a 25 million bushel increase in carryout. Splitt says that’s still tight and with the huge pick up in exports and South American weather concerns the market will likely bounce off the lows hit Thursday.

Splitt says, “So the carryout did go up to 245 million bushels. It’s tough because you still have the South American story going on. And it seems like the weather forecast right now still looks to see the correct pattern maintained and that is dry in the northern growing regions, regions, Mato Grosso and then to wet down south and that wetness has been exceedingly aggressive rainfall.”

Splitt says if that weather pattern continues it will lower Brazil production, but USDA did not make any revisions to the South American crop because it’s too early in the season.

Wheat ending stocks were raised 14 million bushels to 684 million as USDA left exports unchanged and raised imports 10 million. Global stocks raised also 600,000 metric tons on wheat.

What Was So Bullish About the October USDA Reports?

Fri, 13 Oct 2023 13:23:50 GMT

The soybean market scored a victory in the October WASDE and Crop Production Report as USDA lowered yield .5 bushels, production by 42 million bushels and even with a drop in exports by 35 million they left ending stocks unchanged at 220 million bushels. The trade was expecting an increase after the higher quarterly stocks on September 30. The trade is also anticipating lower yield moving forward. However, the bullish surprise was global ending stocks were cut 3.6 million metric tons.

Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net, says, “The yield was lower than traders anticipated, ending stocks are lower than anticipated. And you’re right the world number I think is the biggest surprise to see that big of a drop revision growth number. I think definitely got the trades attention. Coming into this report there was talk that the funds are actually short beans, this report may be enough to scare them right back into a little bit of a net long position.”

On corn USDA again cut yield .8 bushels and dropped production 70 million bushels. Again, USDA cut demand but in the end, they lowered ending stocks 110 million bushels due to the lower carry in from the quarterly stocks. And just like on beans the trade is expecting further yield cuts. While that’s positive, McCormick says a carryover above 2.1 billion is still a headwind.

“When they get a little bit smaller in October, the history does work in the favor that the crop will be a little bit smaller down the line in November then again in January, but unfortunately unless we see an uptick in exports, there’s a very, there’s a very good likelihood that they will offset maybe some of that production losses anticipated down the line with demand cuts. So, the balance sheet overall, Michelle, I’d say it’s going to stay relatively cumbersome around this 2.1, 2.15 carryout number.”

The WASDE was bearish for wheat with the 55 million bushel increase in U.S. ending stocks and USDA only lowered global stocks a half million metric tons.

AgDay TV: Quarterly Stocks Bullish for Corn, Bearish Soybeans. Wheat Hit by Higher Production

Sun, 01 Oct 2023 03:41:18 GMT

The USDA reports were bullish for corn with lower-than-expected quarterly stocks, but bearish for soybeans with higher soybeans in all positions. Wheat numbers were also bearish with higher-than-expected production, coming largely from a bigger spring wheat crop.

USDA’s 1.36-billion-bushel quarterly stocks estimate on corn was bullish as its the smallest since 2013-14, plus 70 million below estimates, and 90 million below USDA’s final ending stocks. The lower figure was in part due to a cut in production of 15 million but also higher usage. Matt Bennett of AgMarket.Net says the old crop corn market gave signals of the tighter supply.

“The whole system coming into harvest, I mean, most of these end users most elevators they have very little corn, if any on hand. June quarterly stocks was a bullish surprise. June quarterly stocks. I’d said several times. The only way it could be a bullish surprise with demand where it’s been, especially export demand, is that last year’s crop gets adjusted lower, and that’s what we had today. No surprise to me.”

USDA also lowered soybean production by 6 million bushels but still ended up with a 268-million-bushel carryout which was above expectations and 18 million above old crop ending stocks. Bennett thinks last year’s corn and even soybean production may still be too high.

“I think given demand and what not and seeing where stocks come in. It’s really hard for me to think that that crop wasn’t maybe overestimated a little more, but regardless, I mean, that’s the final numbers for now. For me, carry out is still coming in is a little bit more robust than maybe a lot of folks thought several months ago.”

Wheat stored in all positions on September 1 was slightly higher than expected but production in the Small Grains Summary was bearish with an increase in all wheat at 1.8 billion bushels. Much of that came from the other spring wheat category at 505 million bushels which was nearly 60 million bushels higher than expectations and the previous estimate.

USDA Tightens Balance Sheet on Soybeans but Raises Carryout on Corn

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 17:17:49 GMT

The September WASDE was a disappointment for the bulls, especially on corn. Despite lower corn yields, an increase in harvested acres more than offset, resulting in higher ending stocks verses August. Meanwhile, on soybeans, USDA once again tightened the balance sheet, but it remains above estimates.

As expected, corn yields dropped in many states with Illinois and Minnesota both down 3 bu. and Nebraska was down 7 bu. The 1.3 bu. per acre drop nationally was disappointing, according to Ted Seifried, market analyst with Zaner Ag Hedge.

“A lot of analysts and brokers, for that matter, were really looking for numbers to drop a lot more than that, and the fact they didn’t is the biggest problem we have here today,” he says.

USDA incorporated the August FSA data and came up with 800,000 more harvested acres. Seifried says the $5.91 crop insurance guarantee and some lower input costs in the spring encouraged more corn. So even with a yield cut, production and corn ending stocks were increased 20 million bushels.

“We’re still well above a 2.2-billion-bushel carryover, and that is a problem based on the fact that production went up, but they didn’t do anything to increase demand,” Seifried says.

For soybeans, USDA lowered yield about as expected by 0.8 bu. per acre, with a 6-bu. drop in Kansas, 3 bu. in Nebraska and 4 bu. in Wisconsin. USDA only raised harvested acres by 100,000, resulting in a 60 million bushel drop in production. But ending stocks dropped only 25 million as USDA cut demand.

Seifried says: “207 million bushels was the average trade guess for carryover on a yield that was slightly higher than what USDA gave us. The fact that yield came in lower than the trade guess, but they had a carryover into 220 million bushels instead of like 205, that’s rough. USDA cut 35 million bushels off of exports and about 10 million bushels off of crush.”

On wheat, USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 615 million bushels, but lowered world carryover 7 million metric tons.

For cotton, production and ending stocks were lowered on a U.S. and world basis.

Trade Expects Lower Yields in September WASDE After Hot Dry Weather

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 01:40:00 GMT

The September crop estimates will include USDA’s first objective yield or field samples for corn and soybeans. The National Ag Statistic Service will also adjust acreage if needed. Combine that with the year-to-year change in crop condition ratings at the beginning of September, and traders are looking for lower yields.

Average trade guesses indicate more than a 1.5 bushel drop in corn yield to 173.5 bushels per acre, cutting production by 100 million bushels. The wild card is harvested acres, as the trade is estimating an increase of 120,000 acres. However, that’s down from the over a million acre increase implied after the August FSA data was released. So, ending stocks are projected to be down 60 million bushels, but still at 2.14 billion.

Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says, “Everybody’s expecting that we are going to see lower corn yields come in this report, just because of the hot dry conditions that we’ve seen, especially as of late but they’re also worried about what’s going to happen on the acreage side. And then also, there’s going to be some concerns about demand especially on the export side.”

Soybean yields are also estimated to drop .7 bpa to 50.2 bushels, factor in the increase in harvested acres of 140,000 and the result is a drop in production of around 53 million bushels. So, ending stocks would be trimmed by another 38 million to 207 million bushels.

Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures says, " A 240-million-bushel carryout is tight and now with you potentially take a bushel off of that maybe more depending on just how badly the heat actually hurt the soybean crop the last three weeks as well as the dryness. You’re talking about a rationing situation again.”

Wheat carryover is projected to drop just 2 million bushels from August to 613 million, with a slight increase in spring wheat yields.

Jerry Gulke: Here's What the Market Is Signaling After Grains End Lower Following the WASDE

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 23:01:48 GMT

Grains ended lower on Friday and for the week once again. December corn was down 10 cents, November soybeans lost nearly 26 cents, September soybean meal was down $12.30 and bean oil was 126 points lower. September Chicago wheat lost 6¼ cents, Minneapolis wheat was down 7¼ cents, while Kansas City wheat bucked the trend and finished up 3¼ cents.

So why did the grain markets end lower after USDA made yield, production and ending stocks cuts for both corn and soybeans in the August WASDE report? The answer: It is because USDA also made subsequent cuts in demand including exports, according to Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.

Gulke says the report was what he expected: “There was enough evidence of headwinds, which have been around for 18 months, to adjust the demand side of the supply-and-demand equation if reports necessitated reducing supply or yields.”

He says Friday’s report was no exception.

Corn production was reduced 155 million bushels by lowering yield 2.4 bushels per acre. However, demand was reduced 85 million bushels, including a cut in exports of 25 million bushels for 2022/23 and 50 million bushels for 2023/24.

Soybean production was lowered 95 million bushels with a 1.1 bushel cut in yield. Again, Gulke says USDA lowered demand 26 million bushels for a resulting drop in ending stocks of only 55 million bushels to 245 million bushels.

“Had demand not been reduced, ending stocks would have been close to 205 million bushels with six weeks of growing weather yet to come,” he says.

USDA also lowered wheat yield by 0.3 bushels, but true to form, the agency cut exports 25 million bushels for a net rise in ending stocks of 23 million bushels.

Prices responded violently after the WASDE report came out with the day ending in very wide ranges. In fact, Gulke says there were massive reversals off higher trades. December corn futures posted a daily key reversal down. Wheat closed at lows not seen since early May.

“The general feeling was that if demand was whacked in this report, the overall outlook for commodities by those who trade is not good,” according to Gulke.

Gulke also says there is negativity in the commodity sector that is spilling over from the events that happened on July 27 in commodities, financials and the stock market with some negative technical signals that mark a turning point in grain and livestock futures and outside markets. He points to a negative sentiment that inflationary and recessionary fears are not over.