The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
Soybeans traders are patiently waiting to see the USDA's latest ending stock estimates due out Wednesday. The average trade guess is lower for both old and new-crop balance sheets. Just the opposite of corn, soybean traders seem to be focused more heavily on "demand" rather than "supply." The biggest questions still seem to be what will the USDA do with the "crush" and "export" numbers? I suspect once we clear this hurdle and gain more certainty about overall "demand," the trade will quickly turn its attention more towards "supply." In my opinion this has been one of the most frustrating things for the bears..."when is the trade going to start focusing on the massive amount of 'supply' that could soon be coming our direction?" From a "technical" perspective, the trade is still keeping a close eye on the $12.00 area for new-crop soybeans...a close below this level could certainly make the trade a bit more nervous. From a producers standpoint, I'm still hoping to see some type of "summer" weather induced rally to give us an opportunity to make another round of cash-sales. The bears seem content on assuming very little in the way of a weather hiccup or a production setback for this years crop. I am not saying they can't ultimately be right, but I'm just thinking somewhere between now and then, with global demand being strong and old-crop balance sheets being tight, a shift in the weather pattern could cause a large portion of the bears to cover their new-crop short positions and move to the sideline. This buy-back pressure could give us the push back above $12.50 that we are hoping to eventually see... Remain patent! CLICK HERE for my daily report....
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