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Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
I am starting to hear about more problems in Argentina and Brazil, especially in regards to soymeal. From my perspective there may end up being some significant business switched-back to the US if the rumors turn out to be true. Both Argentina and Brazilian soymeal shipments are much less than last year. In fact they have yet to ship the EU even half of what they exported to them last year. Crush margins continue to be extremely poor, coupled with continued logistical problems and poor margins in South America there is still room to be conservatively bullish old crop. New-crop soybeans remain an entirely different story. The bears continue to talk about more beans acres going in the ground here in the US. There is also talk that "IF" corn prices drastically fall (say sub-$4.50), South American producers will quickly shift heavy amounts of corn acres into soybeans next year. Let’s not forget the trade has also been questioning Chinese soy demand. The H7N9 "bird flu" virus is certainly not helping matters either, as many in the trade speculate it is doing more damage to soy demand than the market has currently taken into account. To get this type of story and more on a daily basis CLICK HERE.
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