The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.
I have heard some interesting numbers being thrown around the past few days regarding planting intentions and in particular corn versus beans. The argument being waged by many here in the heart of the Midwest is that Soybeans look like they will "pencil" better than Corn. There are research studies out now as well as several big producers I have spoke with who tell me the numbers are encouraging them to plant more beans, especially with the skyrocketing price of Anhydrous in many parts. One recent study out of Illinois had beans penciling out about $18 per acre better than corn. Their numbers indicated roughly $200 less in inputs for the beans. Obviously this number is going to vary tremendously depending on your area and what you were able to lock in early on. A lot of the guys who have been planting corn-on-corn also believe they will see really good yields from the beans because they haven't planted them in a while. You also have to think we will be seeing more double crop beans than we have ever seen in the past. You know guys are going to try and plant wheat then double crop the beans, it only makes sense. Just yesterday I talked with a couple of guys that had given the wheat a go but have ran into very dry conditions and told me they will more than likely scrap that plan and switch over to beans. I know farmers traditionally like to plant corn, but with more feed wheat pouring into the marketplace and beans obviously penciling better at this time farmers may actually make the switch. If everyone jumps on the soybean bandwagon will this ultimately leave us short Corn acres or will farmers stick with the norm and continue to plant more corn acres? Right now it is just too early to call, the beans however are certainly doing all they can to make it more enticing.
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Quick Thoughts From December 17th 2010
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