Planting Progress Behind Pace
Apr 22, 2013
Grains and oilseeds closed lower Monday with the largest setbacks occurring in the December corn and July soybean contracts. December corn closed 14 cents lower at $5.33 which means we are within 8 cents of reaching new lows for the move again. July soybeans were 18 ¼ cents lower at $13.64 ¼. November soybeans traded below $12.00 for the first time since June 18th, 2012.
Temperatures are expected to climb while rain amounts decline over the next couple of weeks which has the market forward pricing December corn lower. Planting Progress shows corn at only 4% complete which is well behind the average pace of 13% at this time of year (1986-2012 average). This is the same planting pace we were on in 2008 which ended up yielding 153.9. In 2009 we were only at 5% planted on this week and we ended up yielding 164.7. With much of the Midwest recharged with moisture we are still estimating a trendline yield of 157.6.
Even if we believe that final yield is not currently in jeopardy the market may think otherwise. The average guess for today’s planting progress was 5-6%. Since it came in under those estimates we may see a slightly stronger start overnight not to mention the last three weeks have started out lower on Monday but had a decent rebound Tuesday. If we do see the traditional turn-around we would like to use those opportunities to get caught up to the EHedger recommended sale levels (please sign up using link for full recs). The top of the range seems to be the 30 day moving average of $5.50 while the trendline support comes in at $5.30.
December Corn on a daily chart.
Meanwhile, November soybeans are making a series of lower lows.
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