EU Accuses Russia Of Deliberately Targeting Ukraine's Farmers, Agriculture as Major Planting Problems Unfold
Ukraine Planting Cut 032522
The crisis in Ukraine continues as farmers prepare to plant. And now there are reports planted acres in the country could fall by half this spring as Russia is accused of deliberately targeting Ukrainian agriculture.
During a meeting this week, the European Commission accused Russia of targeting agriculture in Ukraine to spur a food shortage and cause widespread famine in the state.
"I would point out that Russia appears to be deliberately targeting and destroying Ukraine's food stocks and food storages," Valdis Dombrovskis, Commission vice-president said on Wednesday
Reuters reported Ukraine's Ag Minister Roman Lshchenko said planted acres could be cut in half due to the war. He said farmers in Ukraine may only be able to plant about 7 million hectares this year compared to 15-million last year before the Russian invasion.
Winter wheat, which is already in the ground, is looking at a reduction, too. Lshchenko stated farmers planted 6.5 million hectares of winter wheat, but the harvested area may only be around 4 million.
On Thursday, Reuters reported Lshchenko resigned citing health reasons. The news came a month after Russia invaded Ukraine.
An online post by Leshchenko said he was standing down "with a heavy heart, but with sincere faith in the restored Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine."
Major Planting Unknowns
Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says even if Ukrainian farmers are able to plant some of the 2022 crop, the reality is stocks were already extremely tight before the war started.
“Because of other dynamics, we were already tightening up the balance sheet,” said Suderman. “If you take all the world's supply of corn, you take China off of it, because we believe USDA is overstating Chinese corn supplies by about 49 million metric tons, and then you take the United States off, what's the situation the rest of the world? Well, according to USDA data, it's about 34 days of supply, which is the tightest in 20 years. So, there wasn't any room for margin before.”
Suderman says based on conversations with Ukrainian customers, while they remain as resilient as possible, he says the consensus is there’s not a large incentive to get in the field, especially considering all the other challenges they face.
“The winter wheat looks good where the wheat tank tracks haven't gone over it. About 50% of the fertilizer is in place prior to this happening. Some of that got applied top dress in the western part of the country prior to the war breaking out, then everything came to a halt and no they wonder if that'll even get harvested.”
Why Ukraine's Agriculture Footprint Matters
According to John Phipps, Ukraine has only recently become a corn and soy export competitor. Instead, it was the steady breadbasket of Europe for centuries because of their large grain production, including wheat. And the soils in Ukraine are prime for planting.
"Ukraine has about two-thirds of the richest soils in continental Europe," says Phipps. "It’s called chernozem. It’s black, thick, and high in phosphorus and organic matter."
The European Commission said this week it wants to produce more food in order to respond to the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine. During proposals presented by Brussels, the Commission said supplies are not threatened in the EU, but short and medium-term responses are needed to avoid any shortages.
"We open the possibility to use the use the agriculture land that was excluded from the production because of greening obligation which we have in the Common Agriculture Policy," Wojciechowski said. "This is about the four million hectares, the area of the ecological focus area, the fallow lands that are set aside. This land can be used for the agriculture production, for the food and feed production."
Read more coverage about the impact the crisis in Ukraine is having on agriculture.
According to AgWeb, Ukraine has more than 41.5 million hectares (or 102.5 million acres) of agricultural land that covers 70% of the country. And Chip Nellinger of Blue-Reef Agri-Marketing says the reality is even if Russia decided to end the war today, the damage to infrastructure will make it difficult for farmers to secure and move inputs and fuel.
“They're essentially on the same growing season as the ‘I States’ along the I-80 corridor,” says Nellinger “If you think about it, we don't like planting corn much past the first week or so June, that's less than 90 days away. And you have to question at this point is that even possible? Putin is not pulling out of there, they may stop bombing, but he didn't go into Ukraine for the idea of pulling back out in a month. So, he's there to stay. I think it's possible they [Ukraine] may get some crops in the ground, but they have so many issues, they can't get seed and fertilizer, where it needs to be. Roads and bridges are bombed out. They're running out of fuel. So, I just question whether they can get much in the ground.”
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