To Hit Trendline Yield, U.S. Corn Would Need to Break All-Time Record by 3 Bu. Per Acre

USDA is preparing to release its next Crop Production and WASDE reports on Thursday, August 12. Ahead of the release, debate is heating up on whether the U.S. can achieve a trendline yield this year.

The crop production outlook is extremely mixed this year. As portions of the Corn Belt could be sitting on their best crop ever, other areas are suffering from extreme drought conditions, cutting into their corn crop production outlooks this year.

“The South and the Delta looks to be very good,” says  Jarod Creed of JC Marketing Services. “That area can certainly help offset some of the problems in South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota. And not all of those areas are in trouble, as well. And then obviously the core of the Corn Belt of Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois, in southern Minnesota, collectively, I think those four have a very high likelihood of achieving a trend plus yield at this point in time.”

Creed calls it a story of the “haves and have nots” this year, a situation Mike North of ever.ag thinks could hinder the ability for the U.S. to reach above a trendline yield overall.

“I know there have been a lot of yield surveys coming out that are touching that 176 bu. per acre yield, or somewhere close to that,” says North. “I would tend to agree with that as we look at final yields. To what Jared said that you know we do have the haves and have nots this year, it’s a matter of trying to figure out where we're going to be, but to say that we're going to have a trendline yield, which is essentially a three bushel [per acre] better yield than the all-time record, is kind of a tough stretch given the hardship that farmers are facing in the northern and western part of the Corn Belt.

As USDA compiles the data for next week’s report, North and Creed agree on one thing: both think USDA will not touch the national soybean yield projection. Corn could be a different story, but Creed says it’s key to remember that USDA’s projection won’t include a “boots in the field” look at crop production potential.

“I think this is our third year that we don't have the objective yield plot data from the  actual USDA plots,” Creed says. “So, you're heavily dependent on survey results, and at the same time heavily dependent on satellite data.”

Creed doesn’t expect USDA to make much of adjustment to the export demand picture, nor does he think the agency will touch the soybean yield estimate, given it’s still early August.

“And if anything, I think you can maybe see a corn yield move a bushel either way,” he adds. “I’m not necessarily suggesting that we're going to start a trend to start moving that yield lower. It's a story of haves and have nots, just depends where you're at in the U.S.”

North agrees that USDA more than likely won’t make changes to the national soybean yield number yet. And as USDA weighs the possibility of adjusting  the national corn yield and corn production numbers, North says those changes probably won’t be significant, either.

“Because we don't have that objective field data, it's going to be difficult for them to likely make a whole lot of changes to the number as we come through the August report as well,” says North. “We're probably going to have to wait to find that later, as we start to get into a little bit more real objective view of the crop, and  combine reports. But I wouldn't expect a lot of change in the August report.”