Here Are the Big Questions Analysts Want Answered on Pro Farmer Crop Tour
The 2022 Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicks off Monday, Aug. 22 in South Dakota and Ohio. As scouts gather thousands of samples and travel across the Midwest throughout the week, traders and market analysts are watching closely.
Peter Meyer of S&P Global Commodity Insights has been a scout on the Tour for years. For 2022, he thinks the bigger story could be on the western leg of Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
“I try to go into Crop Tour with no predetermined ideas about what's going to happen," he says . "We do think the West is where the story is, and Western Iowa (especially that northwest corner) is going to be in tough shape. Dryland corn in Nebraska is in tough shape. We've already written off some of the states south of Nebraska."
Meyer says he has two main questions he wants answered this year: How bad is Nebraska? And how bad is western Iowa?
Dan Basse of AgResource Company says Nebraska and Iowa are his two main concerns, as he watches the results next week.
“Is Iowa going to be holding a 200 bu. an acre yield? If not, we probably have a U.S. corn yield that's closer to 173 or 172, and it really changes the dynamics in the corn market," he says. "You don't have to lose a lot of bushels this year to get a very spicy balance sheet."
Meyer says he doesn't think the entire western part of tour is going to be a disaster, though.
"South Dakota, that's going to be better than it was last year," says Meyer. "Southern Minnesota is certainly going to be better than it was last year."
3 Questions the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Will Help Answer
The goal of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour is to get a strong, objective view of corn yield potential across the Corn Belt during the third full week of August. Here are just a few of the big questions this year's Tour could answer.
1. How will corn yields compare to the latest USDA estimate?
Corn yields generated by Crop Tour typically find the year-to-year trend in each state. Apply the “historical difference” to the calculated yield in each state. Most importantly, use the historical difference on the “All Samples” average yield to get close to USDA’s final yield.
Read More: How To Analyze Pro Farmer Crop Tour Data
This charts shows the historical differences in Crop Tour's yield versus USDA's Final (avg. since 2001).
2. What will soybean pod counts tell us?
The number of soybean pods it takes to make a bushel is different in each state. Instead of yield, we calculate the number of pods in a 3X3-foot square. Compare pod counts to past Tour data to get an idea about the size of this year’s yield “factory.”
Read More: Understand the Pro Farmer Crop Tour Data-Gathering Process
3. Will the good areas offset the poorer areas?
Crop condition ratings declined again this week, with 57% of corn and 58% of soybeans rated good to excellent, while the portion of crop rated poor to very poor was 16% for corn (13% yr ago) and 12% for soybeans (15% yr ago). It’s debatable how much crop condition ratings equate to final yield, but this year’s crop was just a tad below average when pollination started. A key to this year’s Tour is if we find enough bushels in the good areas to offset the poorer areas.
Read More
Anticipation Is High Ahead Of Pro Farmer Crop Tour, Analysts Caution It Could Be A Big Market Mover
Round Robin: Which State Will Have the Highest Crop Yields?
