Beef

China Grants 5-Year Extension to Hundreds of U.S. Beef Plant Registrations

Fri, 15 May 2026 18:23:58 GMT

China has granted a five-year extension to hundreds of U.S. beef plant export registrations, marking the first major movement in months on a trade issue that has constrained access to one of the most important overseas markets for American beef.

According to a Friday statement from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has extended registrations for 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s CIFER system. In addition, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations have been added, effective May 15, 2026, with each valid for five years. However, 38 beef establishments remain suspended. Of those, 25 were previously expired and have now been administratively renewed, but they are still not eligible to export.

The announcement adds a significant new development to a week of confusion and shifting signals around U.S. beef access to China. On Thursday, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that China appeared to have renewed export registrations for hundreds of U.S. beef plants during high-level talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing. But those listings later reverted to “expired” on China’s customs website, with no official explanation, fueling uncertainty across the industry.

As recently as Friday morning, there had been no clear confirmation that broad renewals were in place. The USMEF update now provides the most concrete indication yet that at least partial restoration of access is underway, even as some facilities remain blocked.

Restoring Plant Registrations Was Top Priority for USMEF

For USMEF, restoring those registrations is priority number one, and even said before the high-level meeting this week that this type of meeting would be the perfect stage to restore the registrations..

“We have been at an impasse now for almost a year with these plants,” says Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation. “The vast majority of the U.S. plants — 400-plus — are either delisted or were never relisted in their registration system in China. So in my opinion, it’s going to take an event like this to maybe jar this loose and break it loose. We’re cautiously optimistic that having this high-level meeting between President Xi and President Trump might just do that.”

Halstrom said while beef is only one piece of the broader trade relationship, these talks could provide the political momentum needed to reopen access.

“There are so many issues outside of beef and even outside of agriculture that are being discussed,” he says. “But time will tell. A meeting like this could absolutely be what we’ve been waiting for.”

From a $2 Billion Market to a Fraction of That

How high are the stakes? According to Halstrom, they’re significant. He says following the Phase One trade agreement in 2020, U.S. beef exports to China exploded. According to Halstrom, exports grew from roughly $300 million in 2020 to more than $2 billion by 2022.

But after the registration lapse last year, exports sharply declined.

“If you remember back to 2020 with the Phase One deal with China, that was a home run for the U.S. beef industry,” Halstrom says. “In 2020, we were exporting about $300 million of U.S. beef. We peaked out in 2022 at a little over $2 billion. Then in 2023 and 2024, we were around $1.6 billion. But after the plants were delisted last year, we dropped to a little under $500 million. So at a very high level, that’s the impact we’re talking about.”

And that loss isn’t just showing up on export balance sheets. It’s hitting cattle values at home.

Halstrom estimates access to the China market adds roughly $150 to $165 per fed animal harvested in the U.S.

“China has become a very important market because of the way it helps maximize the value of the carcass,” he explains. “There are products, especially variety meats that have significantly more value in China than they do here domestically. Items like backstrap and aorta are in very high demand there. If those products suddenly don’t have a home in China, it impacts the value chain almost immediately.”

Why China Matters to the Cutout

Halstrom says the impact also extends into traditional muscle cuts, especially short plates.

“Today, beef short plates are trading roughly around $2.50 per pound,” Halstrom says. “We estimate that if these plants were relisted and access was restored, you could see short plate values increase by more than a dollar per pound in relatively short order. That’s substantial.”

Halstrom also points out China’s importance stretches beyond just direct exports into the country. It really impacts all of Asia.

“It’s not just about what gets sold directly to China,” he says “The China market creates a halo effect across Asia because a lot of these same items are traded between China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. So when China is actively buying, you immediately see stronger demand and stronger pricing across the region for products like short ribs, chuck flap and short plates.”

That broader demand ripple helps support overall cattle prices in the U.S.

“More customers rather than fewer is what impacts the cutout,” Halstrom says. “And there’s no doubt there’s been big money lost over the last year because these plants have not been relisted.”

More Than Just Plant Registrations

Halstrom stresses the expired registrations are only one layer of the issue that needs to be addressed.

“It’s not just the plant relistments,” he explains. “That’s phase one of what we need to have done. A large percentage of these plants are also dealing with technical and non-tariff trade issues, including residue-related issues that have caused additional delistings. So there are really two phases here — first getting these plants relisted in the registration system, and then working through these broader trade barriers.”

He said the U.S. Trade Representative’s office is fully aware of the challenges facing the industry and is listening.

“We’ve been dealing with USTR on these issues and they are very well informed on it,” Halstrom says. “The other thing from an agriculture perspective is encouraging the Chinese to go back and look at what they already committed to with the Phase One agreement back in 2020.”

Demand Is Still There

Despite the political tensions, Halstrom said the commercial appetite for U.S. beef in China hasn’t disappeared.

“One important point here is these are not government-to-government transactions. These are our customers,” Halstrom says. “They want the product and we want to sell it. The commercial business is still there.”

He pointed to major retailers and foodservice buyers already positioned to resume purchases quickly if access returns.

“Sam’s Club comes to mind immediately because they’re one of the leading modern big-box retailers in China,” Halstrom says. “Costco has warehouses there as well, and we also have foodservice customers lined up and ready to go. So we do not need to rebuild the commercial business. The customers are there, willing and able to buy U.S. beef. What we need is for the U.S. government and the Chinese government to work together to restore access so we can get back on track.”

As of the latest industry checks this week, registrations for most U.S. beef plants still had not been renewed.

DOJ, USDA Ramp Up Antitrust Investigation Into "Big 4" Beef Packers

Fri, 08 May 2026 18:34:40 GMT

The Department of Justice and U.S. Department of Agriculture are intensifying scrutiny of concentration and pricing practices across the meat industry, announcing this week that federal investigators are ramping up a criminal antitrust investigation into the nation’s four largest beef packers.

During a joint press conference Monday at DOJ headquarters, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche framed the effort as part of a broader push to address competition issues in agriculture and food pricing.

“Today we are here to talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable,” Blanche says.

Federal officials allege price-fixing and collusion may have contributed to higher meat prices for consumers, while also limiting competition within the cattle industry.

“We prioritized investigating potential antitrust violations in U.S. cattle and beef markets,” Blanche says. “In the beef industry, the Big Four processors control over 85% of the beef processing market. Two of the Big Four are primarily foreign-owned.”

The “Big Four” — referenced during the press conference — are JBS, Cargill, Tyson and National Beef. The administration argues the current structure of the meat industry allows competitors to exchange competitively sensitive information across the protein sector — practices DOJ says it is now investigating.

DOJ Encourages Whistleblowers to Come Forward

Blanche also encourages whistleblowers within the meatpacking industry to provide information to federal investigators. DOJ says individuals who provide information leading to antitrust convictions or major enforcement actions could qualify for financial rewards.

“The idea of whistleblowers of people coming forward with information they have is one of the best and most efficient ways that we can solve antitrust violations criminally or otherwise,” he says. “And so we just want to make sure people realize that people in this industry realize that we’re putting money where our mouth is. We’re not asking you to come forward and then see what happens. We’re saying if you come forward and if your information results in a finding, in a conviction, and the amount of money is over a million dollars, which in this industry is not a very high bar, that you stand to recover up to 30%. And so we have to incentivize people to make a very difficult choice and come forward with information if they had it.”

R-CALF USA Applauds Investigation

R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard says the biggest takeaway from Monday’s announcement is that DOJ is actively seeking public assistance through its antitrust whistleblower program.

“The biggest takeaway was that the Department of Justice is reaching out to the public seeking help through DOJ’s antitrust whistleblower program, to find out what the public knows
about these anticompetitive practices,” Bullard says.

Bullard says R-CALF USA has spent years warning policymakers about growing concentration in the cattle industry.

“We’ve been calling attention and warning that this is a threat to our national security, our economy, and particularly to our food safety here and food security in the United States,” Bullard says.

Rollins Links Herd Decline to Regulatory Pressure

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also focused heavily on the shrinking U.S. cattle herd and declining number of ranchers during Monday’s event.

“In the past decade alone, we’ve lost over 17% of our cattle ranchers,” Rollins says. “More than 100,000 ranches across this country are no more.”

“The low herd size inherited by the Trump administration can be attributed to a variety of factors,” she says. “The biggest one, at least from our perspective, is the radical left’s ongoing assault against ranching as a way of life.”

Today, just four companies — JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods, and National Beef — control roughly 85% of the cattle processing market. That level of concentration has surged from just 25% in 1977 to 71% by 1992, and now to an astonishing 85%.

Together, these companies operate through… pic.twitter.com/s4naYFcjt7
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) May 4, 2026

Rollins argues drought alone is not responsible for cattle liquidation.

“For years, they used climate alarmism to wage a war on cattle in America,” Rollins says. “And when you pair that with droughts, wildfire, overregulation from previous administrations and volatile markets, this is how we have ended up here today.”

The administration also outlined several policy initiatives it says are designed to support cattle producers, including:

Opening more federal land for grazing
Implementing new “Product of USA” labeling rules
Supporting small processors through a grading pilot program
Updating dietary guidelines to emphasize the role of meat in the American diet

Rollins says additional announcements are expected later this week.

Agri Stats Settlement Targets Information Sharing

The DOJ’s broader push against anticompetitive behavior escalated Thursday when the department announced a proposed settlement with Agri Stats .

Federal officials accuse the company of helping major meat processors share confidential pricing and production data involving chicken, pork and turkey markets for decades.

Under the proposed settlement , Agri Stats would be prohibited from continuing several data-sharing practices DOJ alleges distorted competition and increased prices.

The agreement would also increase market transparency by making more information available to buyers and sellers throughout the supply chain.

Although the Agri Stats case does not involve beef, Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing Peter Navarro referenced the pending settlement during Monday’s press conference.

“This is like the mathematician’s worst nightmare in terms of monopoly behavior,” Navarro says. “Basically, what the companies in this concentrated industry were doing was individually sending in data on everything, consumers, production, everything in between. And what did that computer do? It spit back what the monopoly price should be.”

With the settlement he explains, “Justice Department said no more. That’s not going to happen on our watch and that case I believe is going to be settled well or at trial in a way which not only will take care of that problem but implicate some of the bad actions that we’ve seen by the two American companies Tyson and Cargill and JBS on the Brazilian side along with National Beef.”

1 – The Department of Justice continues to bring affordability to the American people. Today, we announced a historic settlement with Agri Stats, whose business model directly raised the price of chicken, turkey, and pork in local grocery stores across our nation. 🐔🐖⚖️
— Acting AG Todd Blanche (@DAGToddBlanche) May 7, 2026

On X, Blanche says the settlement will create a more level playing field by making Agri Stats reports available to all buyers and sellers and calls it part of the administration’s broader push to fight anticompetitive behavior in the food supply chain.

Rollins also confirms the DOJ antitrust investigation into meatpackers originally announced in November remains ongoing.

“As ranchers face fewer options for selling their animals, the Big Four grow stronger and stronger,” Rollins says. “These companies now have an unprecedented ability to wield market power and influence prices paid for cattle — definitely more so than if we had greater competition.”

Industry Analysts Push Back on Concentration Claims

Not everyone in the cattle industry agrees that concentration itself is evidence of anticompetitive conduct.

John Nalivka, president of Sterling Marketing, says consolidation largely reflects economics and efficiency within the packing sector.

“As a business, you have to continually look to lowering costs,” Nalivka says. “And you can manage costs and you can manage revenue both. But the cost, you can have a direct impact on your cost structure. And one way of doing this, consolidating and gaining greater capacity and economies of scale.”

Nalivka also disputes the administration’s market concentration figures.

(Sterling Marketing Inc.)

“Well, to begin with, it’s not 85% now, it’s something more close to 78%, or even maybe a little bit lower than that when the Greeley strike was on,” he says.
The timing of the investigation is notable as packer profitability remains under pressure.

Nalivka says Sterling Marketing’s profit tracker showed beef packers losing nearly $200 per head at the end of April.

“From 2011 to 2015, we had the same set of circumstances, significant herd liquidation and pulling the numbers down,” Nalivka says. “And with the packing plant, the capacity is driven by — and I generate the numbers based on slaughter capacity — so it’s all about cattle numbers.”

Nalivka says his data shows the market share of the four largest beef packers has declined in 2026, with Tyson Foods’ share decreasing.

(Sterling Marketing Inc.)

According to Nalivka, the four largest beef packers now account for approximately 73% of fed-cattle slaughter capacity, leaving nearly one-quarter of processing capacity outside what the administration refers to as the “Big Four.”

“I have told people who have made these comments about these big bad packers,” Nalivka says. “I’ve said, first of all, I’ll start out with a statement, what would you do if you didn’t have one, a packer? And secondly, if you think it’s easy and you think you know so much about it, go build one.”

Producers Need Packers

Justin Tupper, U.S. Cattlemen’s Association president, says the DOJ action is less a brand-new effort than a continuation of long-running scrutiny. Tupper was a guest on AgriTalk Thursday .

Tupper acknowledges the seriousness of DOJ’s work, saying, “I sure do” believe they’re ramping it up, and called the probe “long-awaited and long-needed.” But he repeatedly warns about unintended consequences for producers if the investigation disrupts slaughter capacity.

“We like to vilify the packers all the time, but there is one truth to it, we need them,” he says, adding that if a major plant closed, it, “would cause more disruption than any good that could come from it.”

His concern is when cattle numbers rebuild, predicting, “When we get back to cattle numbers that they can control us, then they’re going to use that and weaponize that against us.”

Tupper stresses producers are not trying to deny packers a profit. “All we want as cattle producers is a fair shake; we don’t want to be used and abused when the cattle numbers are high.”

He warns the administration must understand “how tight that supply is and how few of places that slaughter them” and avoid “big disruptions.” He calls for thoughtful, balanced solutions developed with “cool heads and a lot of the smart people in the room” so the investigation doesn’t “disrupt the chain.”

Calls for Structural Reform Continue

Bullard says R-CALF USA continues pushing for significant structural reforms in the cattle industry.

“We’re asking them to do one of two things,” Bullard says. “Either break up the packers to provide more competition within the industry, or regulate those packers to ensure that they don’t engage in the antitrust conduct and anti-competitive practices.”

Bullard says the group is also urging the Trump administration to investigate what it describes as a “formula pricing scheme,” where cattle are increasingly sold through contracts instead of negotiated cash markets.

Critics argue those arrangements give major meatpackers greater influence over cattle pricing.

When asked whether the administration is listening to cattle producers’ concerns, Bullard points to Monday’s press conference as evidence of a major shift in Washington.

“Well, clearly it is,” Bullard says. “The press conference that was held talking specifically about the problems associated with beef packer concentration was unprecedented for the past 100 years. We have not seen our policymakers stand up and take a stand against the concentration of the cattle market. And so we’re excited that this administration is focused on this issue, understands that it is a national security issue, understands that as a result of our failure to properly enforce our antitrust laws, we’ve hollowed out rural American communities all across this country.”

Whether the federal investigation ultimately leads to major reforms within the cattle industry remains uncertain. But the debate over market concentration, competition and who controls pricing power in the U.S. cattle market is now squarely at the center of Washington policymaking.

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Not Done Yet: Despite Packer Investigation Price Shock, Cattle Prices Could Keep Climbing Through 2030

Tue, 05 May 2026 16:12:17 GMT

Fresh policy headlines injected new uncertainty into cattle markets this week, but they haven’t changed the bigger picture driving beef prices higher.

On Monday, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced an intensified antitrust investigation into the so-called “Big Four” packers — JBS, Cargill, Tyson Foods and National Beef — which together process the vast majority of U.S. cattle. The probe, which the Trump administration says includes millions of documents and a push for whistleblower testimony, underscores growing concern in Washington over market concentration, pricing behavior and the impact on both producers and consumers.

That news sent cattle prices sharply lower.

While policy developments like Monday’s news can dominate the markets on any given day, they don’t necessarily alter the deeper supply-and-demand forces shaping the cattle market. And right now, those forces remain firmly intact: Record-high beef demand and historically low cattle supplies mean these strong cattle prices aren’t just here, but they may be here to stay through the end of the decade.

Cattle Prices Not Done Climbing Yet

Oklahoma State Extension livestock economist Derrell Peel says he’s never been this bullish for this long. And the reason is such strong fundamentals at play. The market’s direction is still being driven far more by biology and consumer behavior than by policy headlines. And while the investigation may shape the industry over time, it does not immediately create more cattle or reduce beef demand, which are two factors that remain at the core of today’s price strength.

The result is a market where short-term volatility — whether sparked by policy, disease concerns or geopolitical events — continues to play out against a longer-term bullish trend. And as long as supplies stay tight and consumers keep buying beef, the broader trajectory points toward the same conclusion: Cattle prices may not be done climbing yet.

What makes the current environment so unusual is not just the volatility in cattle prices, but how long demand has held together despite those increases. Consumers have continued to buy beef even as retail prices climb and supplies tighten, resisting the typical shift toward lower-cost proteins like pork or chicken. That resilience has been a cornerstone of the market’s strength, helping sustain the rally even as production constraints persist.

The Supply Side of the Story

Even with that looming concern, the supply side of the equation continues to dominate the broader market narrative. In fact, one of the most striking aspects of the current cycle is how little progress has been made toward rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd, despite strong price incentives that would typically encourage expansion.

“This is the longest in my entire career that I’ve basically had the same outlook,” Peel says. “This thing really started in the fall of 2022, as far as the current price run that we’re on. It continues. And the story hasn’t changed, and we really haven’t changed anything yet that sets up the idea that it’s going to change anytime soon.”

That consistency reflects a deeper theme within the industry. While high prices might suggest an imminent increase in production, the biological and economic realities of cattle production make rapid expansion difficult, especially when producers remain cautious.

“Very, very limited at this point — so essentially no,” Peel says when asked if there are signs the U.S. cattle herd is starting to rebuild. “I mean, we just have very limited indications of a little bit of interest in heifer retention, but not a lot happening yet. We’re watching the weather at springtime. There’s a lot of concern about drought conditions that could derail anything we might want to do anyway.”

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Without meaningful heifer retention, Peel explains the process of herd rebuilding cannot truly begin. And until that process starts, he thinks the market remains locked in a pattern of tight supplies and upward price pressure.

“The bottom line is we really haven’t started the clock yet on the things that would eventually lead to a top in this market,” Peel says.

That delay has pushed expectations further into the future, extending the timeline for when increased production might finally ease the market. Each passing season without expansion reinforces the same dynamic: limited supply supporting prices.

“Oh, yeah, we keep pushing it out,” Peel says. “You know, I’ve already extended it probably two years. We’re still waiting again for that clock to start at this point. So until we see some definitive signs of substantial amount of heifer retention, you know, the path continues as it is.”

Even if producers were to begin retaining heifers immediately, the lag time between that decision and its impact on beef production would stretch for years. That built-in delay is a defining feature of the cattle cycle and one reason why price trends tend to persist once they are established.

“And it’ll be some months after that,” Peel says. “Typically, a year to a year and a half after we start heifer retention would be when we would expect these markets to peak out. So we’re on a timeline now where, if we start saving heifers right now, it’s going to be the end of the decade before we really change overall beef production significantly.”

The Bullish Run in Cattle: How Long Can It Last?

That long runway helps explain why Peel remains firmly bullish — even at today’s record price levels. In his view, the market simply hasn’t reached the point where supply can begin to catch up with demand.

“Still predicting higher highs, as scary as that is for me to say,” Peel says. “We’re at record-high prices, and I expect that we’re going to go higher. I don’t think the peak in prices happens in 2026. I think it’s somewhere after that.”

Those supply constraints and demand dynamics point toward a market that could remain elevated well into the latter part of the decade.

“It’s really hard to say right now until we sort of know how it’s playing out,” Peel says, referring to how the eventual peak might unfold. “It’s all really kind of ahead of us as far as that goes. I don’t see it happening. We’re on such a slow build that I think it’s going to be more of a measured approach rather than a sharp peak.”

Still Some Uncertainty Ahead

Still, while the long-term outlook remains bullish, the short-term environment is anything but stable. Day-to-day market action continues to be shaped by uncertainty, with external shocks triggering rapid price swings that can complicate marketing decisions for producers.

“In the meantime, we’re dealing with a lot of risk and uncertainty in this market,” Peel says. “So we’re in this unusual situation where we have a bullish outlook and yet a really strong need for producers to be doing risk management just because the market is so volatile on a short-term basis.”

One Risk: High Gas Prices

One of those risks is the fact outside economic pressures are beginning to build. Gas prices recently jumped 33¢ in a single week, reaching their highest level since July 2022. While that may seem disconnected from cattle markets at first glance, fuel costs play a direct role in shaping consumer purchasing power, especially when increases persist over time.

“Economists define demand as willingness and ability to purchase products,” Peel says. “The willingness is there. But the ability, high gas prices is probably the biggest threat out there.”

That distinction between willingness and ability is critical to understanding where the beef market could be headed next. So far, consumers have shown little hesitation in purchasing beef, even at elevated price levels. However, sustained increases in everyday expenses like fuel can gradually erode disposable income, forcing households to make tougher decisions at the meat counter.

“If the current geopolitical situation persists and keeps gas prices high for another few months, at some point in time it may impact consumer incomes enough that it forces them to make more adjustments,” Peel adds. “And that would be the biggest threat to beef demand at this point.”

That potential shift has not yet materialized, but it represents one of the few risks to an otherwise bullish outlook. For now, demand remains strong, helping support prices even as supplies remain historically tight. But the longer external cost pressures linger, the more likely it becomes that consumer behavior could begin to change.

New World Screwworm Risk

Animal health concerns have been one of the more visible drivers of that volatility, particularly when it comes to New World screwworm . Even unconfirmed reports or isolated cases have proven capable of moving markets, highlighting just how sensitive current conditions are to uncertainty.

“These animal health issues are certainly one of them,” Peel says. “We’ve got a lot of things going on right now that are kind of like that. We get news, and markets don’t like uncertainty. And so that’s what we’re dealing with here.”

Peel says in some cases, the uncertainty is worse than the reality, which means the market is even more sensitive to any type of news.

“But the market is also very resilient. So when we do see these impacts, whether it’s from New World screwworm or concerns about infrastructure or geopolitical events, whatever it is, the market tends to react, but then it bounces back pretty quickly,” he points out.

But for producers, Peel says volatility is a major risk.

“And the challenge for producers is to not get caught where you have to be marketing something in the middle of one of these short-term shocks in the market,” he says. “And so that’s the challenge for them to try to manage around that volatility.”

Is the U.S. Prepared?

From a policy and preparedness standpoint, Amy Hagerman, Extension specialist for agriculture and food policy at Oklahoma State University, emphasizes risks like New World screwworm extend beyond cattle imports alone. The pathways for introduction are broader, requiring a more comprehensive approach to monitoring and response.

“This is a pest that likes anything that’s warm-blooded,” Hagerman says. “And so it’s going to catch a ride with anybody that it can catch a ride with.”

Yet, there’s a general assumption that even though the Southern border remains closed to live cattle imports, that if NWS enters the U.S., it won’t be because of cattle. Instead, it could enter the U.S. via wildlife or something else.

“I think a higher level of awareness, education and vigilance is really important, whether we’re talking about pets for somebody who has vacationed in Mexico, or even individuals, or whether we’re talking about wildlife,” Hagerman says. “We’ve seen a real effort, publicly and privately, to kind of enhance that awareness.”

The latest NWS case, according to Hagerman, is less than 70 miles from the U.S. border and points to the urgency of ongoing monitoring efforts in the region.

“As somebody who does a lot of emergency preparedness, I can tell you that all plans never survive interaction with reality,” she says. “But I do think we’ve put a lot of effort, a lot of time into preparing for this — setting up the infrastructure and educating producers because this is going to be a producer-management issue by and large.”

Possible Permanent Changes of Flow of Cattle From Mexico to the U.S.

Peel adds that while such issues may be costly and complex at the individual level, their broader market impact may be limited compared to supply fundamentals.

“I think the risk here for the impact of New World screwworm is not so much a broader market one, because it’s going to be a very costly issue for producers individually to manage, for regional efforts to control it,” Peel says. “It’s probably not going to impact the overall market all that much.”

Beyond animal health, trade policy remains another uncertain variable. The continued closure of the southern border to live cattle imports has already reshaped supply flows, and prolonged disruption could lead to more permanent structural changes.

“I think we could,” Peel says when asked whether trade patterns might shift for good. “I mean, arguably the biggest impacts of all of this in terms of the economic impact of the border being closed, we’ve already felt up to this point.”

“You know, we probably didn’t get 700,000 or 800,000 head of Mexican cattle last year that we would have gotten,” Peel adds. “And so, you know, we’re past that now, but the thing is, those cattle have been dealt with. They’re using them in Mexico. They have infrastructure to utilize those cattle in their domestic market.”

Peel says the longer this goes on, the more supply chains and production systems need to adjust to the fact the normal or historic trade flows have changed.

“The risk is that maybe we lose it permanently. It changes things on a permanent basis,” Peel says.

No matter the day-to-day noise, the market remains defined by a rare combination of strong demand, constrained supply and mounting external pressures. While higher fuel costs could eventually test consumers’ ability to keep paying record prices, the lack of herd expansion continues to underpin a bullish outlook, one that may keep cattle prices elevated through the end of the decade.

Breaking the $250 Barrier: Cattle Markets Charge to New All-Time Highs

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:13:54 GMT

Live cattle futures surpassed the historic $250 mark on Tuesday, driven by record-breaking $250 cash trades in the North and a 75-year low in U.S. cattle inventory . Despite geopolitical tensions and higher fuel costs, robust consumer demand and a lack of Mexican imports continue to push both fed and feeder cattle to all-time highs as the industry enters the peak spring grilling season.

After the correction off of record highs late last year — triggered by President Trump posting he wanted to lower beef prices — some market watchers were unsure the market would retest those levels. However, live cattle futures hit all-time highs on Tuesday, exceeding last October’s record prices, while feeder cattle made new contract highs.

Record Cash Driving Futures

The spot month (April) live cattle futures contract moved above the psychological $250 mark this week, hitting a new high of $253.60 on Tuesday, while June hit a contract high at $252. The futures were pushed by the recovery in the equity markets, but more importantly, they were chasing the fed cash trade. Last week’s 5-area weighted average steer price hit a record $248.38, up $3.42 from the previous week.

Brad Kooima, of Kooima Kooima Varilek, says although it was on light volume, the North led the cash trade with live sales hitting an eye-popping $250 for the first time ever.

“Some of us got $250 in the North to a regional packer. It wasn’t widespread at all. None of the majors ever bid it,” he explains. “The rest of the feedlots were more like $248, and so most everybody passed. Then there was a little bit of trade in Kansas Friday at $249. And then it was kind of unusual, but there was some trade in Texas on Saturday at $248.”

The previous cash record for the 5-area weighted steer was $246.91, scored the week of Feb. 23.

Higher Fed Cash Cattle Trade This Week

Even after these lofty levels, Kooima says he believes fed cash trade could keep climbing this week as tight supplies continue to support the market.

“The feedlot has still maintained leverage. So, I think there’s a shot we’ll be a little bit higher — let’s go $252,” he says. “I don’t know. Maybe that’s a little bit optimistic, but I’ll take my shot that we’re going to be a little bit better, but it won’t happen until late in the week.”

His optimism is based on beef packers buying very few cattle last week and with feedlots holding out for higher money due to tight breakevens.

“I still think we’re in a window of time here of 30 to 45 days where we are cleaning up the old-crop yearlings. You know there’s a few big cattle, but we don’t have the weight problem that we had three to four weeks ago as you’re going into the front end of these calves that aren’t hardly fat. I just don’t think that the feedlot’s going to have any urgency at all to sell as these cattle.”

Futures Continue to Make New Contract Highs

With higher cash trade, Kooima expects the futures to remain resilient, even in the face of the Iran War, higher gas prices and equity market corrections. Additionally, speculative “fund” traders have returned as aggressive buyers.

“There’s an end to that game. However, in the meanwhile, the holding action rally that we’re experiencing, I expect, is going to continue for a little while yet,” he adds.

The 14-Minute Metric: Why Consumers Aren’t Feeling “Sticker Shock”

Supply is only one-half of the equation, as the strength in consumer demand cannot be underestimated as the market enters the peak grilling season.

“It begins with buying for Mother’s Day,” Kooima explains. “So let’s hope that we’ve energized the Choice cutouts, that we see the middles, you know, the steak cuts lead us out of here.”

Kevin Good , vice president with CattleFax, says the rally the last couple of years has been driven by beef demand, which is at a 40-year high. He concludes there is no evidence of sticker shock.

“Even though we’re at a price point where we’re a little concerned we might have some consumer pushback,” he explains. “If we look at how many minutes it takes to buy a pound of beef and at 14 minutes it is back to the level we were at the last cycle peak in 2014 to 2015. So if we put that into perspective, the consumer is saying for that eating experience we’re still a bargain.”

Feeder Frenzy: The Impact of the 1.2 Million Head Border Gap

The feeder cattle futures also reached new contract highs on Tuesday with the May contract topping at $377.57 1/2. That market has also been pushed by the 75-year low in the cattle herd, plus the lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports has further tightened supplies.

The Southern border has been closed for the last year to prevent the introduction of New World screwworm (NWS), resulting in 1.2 million head fewer feeder cattle being placed in southern feedlots. The feeder cattle cash index is reflecting the tight inventory and the red-hot prices at auction barns across the country. The index was up $7.27 on Tuesday at $373.94.

Your Next Reads:

Historic Wildfires Continue to Scorch Western and Central Nebraska

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 15:39:36 GMT

Four active wildfires in Nebraska — including the largest ever recorded in the state — continue to burn out of control. With containment efforts hampered by volatile weather, the fires grew beyond the capacity of local fire responders and firefighters; Saturday, the Rocky Mountain Complex incident management team, run by the federal National Interagency Fire ⁠Center, assumed management of the two largest fires, the Morrill Fire and the Cottonwood Fire.

High winds, low humidity and dry conditions triggered the wildfires Thursday, March 12. On Friday, the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) received 24 reports of wildfires in 24 hours. Crews have worked through the weekend to battle the four fires, but the weather hampered suppression efforts.

As of Tuesday evening, the approximate acres burned and current containment (according to Watch Duty ) include:

Morrill Fire (Keith, Arthur, Grant, Garden and Morrill counties)
- Acres burned — 643,360 acres
- Containment — 18%
- Origin — downed power pole and line in gusty winds near Angora on Thursday, March 12
- Watch Duty link
- This is the largest fire in Nebraska history.
  
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  Photos courtesy by Morrill Fire Nebraska Facebook page
  
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  Photos courtesy by Morrill Fire Nebraska Facebook page
  
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  Photos courtesy by Morrill Fire Nebraska Facebook page
Cottonwood Fire (Dawson, Lincoln and Frontier counties, south of Interstate 80, near Brady and Gothenburg)
- Acres burned — 131,259 acres
- Containment — 40%
- Watch Duty link
The Road 203 Fire (Thomas, Custer, Logan and Blaine counties, south of the communities of Halsey and Dunning within the Nebraska National Forest)
- Acres burned — 35,912.6 acres
- Containment — 76%
- Watch Duty link
The Anderson Bridge Fire (Cherry County, west of Valentine)
- Acres burned — 17,400
- Containment — 60%
- Watch Duty link

Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen on Friday issued an emergency proclamation to unlock state resources and support the response to multiple wildfires in central and western Nebraska . He also issued a statewide burn ban prohibiting burning until 11:59 p.m. March 27 to help reduce the potential for additional wildfires in Nebraska.

A high wind warning is in effect until 6 p.m. MDT Monday. High rates of fire spread are possible with northwest wind gusts in excess of 50 mph expected. It has snowed on the northwest side of the Morrill Fire, but with the strong winds it may not mitigate fire behavior. With low temperatures forecast to be under 10°F tonight, firefighters must take special precautions to protect their engines and equipment, such as draining water, parking inside and using antifreeze.

While temperatures are cold today, hot and dry weather is forecast later in the week with record temperatures possible. The area is experiencing significant drought, and fuels are cured and receptive to fire.

Resources Available

The Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) is concentrating efforts on assisting farm and ranch families and their livestock.

Producers who have been impacted by the wildfire and need hay, feedstuffs, fencing materials, volunteer help or equipment, should call the Nebraska Department of Agriculture at 1-800-831-0550. Be prepared to share your name, contact information, location (including county), what assistance you are seeking and how urgent your need is.

A list of disaster relief resources for Nebraska farmers and ranchers is also available online at: https://nda.nebraska.gov/disasterresources . This website includes links to USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) programs including the Livestock Indemnity Program and information from the Nebraska Extension.

(Midwest Media by Melanie)

How Can Others Help?

According to NDA, Nebraska has been overwhelmed with the outpouring of support for its producers. If you have hay, feed, fencing materials, equipment or household supplies you are willing to donate, please contact the Nebraska Department of Agriculture at 1-800-831-0550. Be prepared to share your name, contact information and what you have that you are willing to donate and the amount, along with your location.

NDA staff will be gathering this information, identifying needs and sharing where resources can be obtained.

The Nebraska Cattlemen’s Association is also working to coordinate and gather resources for producers.

A Facebook page, Nebraska Sandhills Rancher Fire Relief , was created to support the ranching families affected by the wildfire.

Your Next Read: Tips for Care Following Wildfire

What Does the JBS Strike Mean to Beef Producers?

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 14:25:47 GMT

Union workers at the JBS packing plant in Greeley, Colo., have gone on strike Monday morning. This is the first walkout at a U.S. beef slaughterhouse since the 1980s.

According to The Colorado Sun and the UFCW Local 7 , union workers were picketing early this morning. The workers are calling for higher wages, safer working conditions and respect on the job .

After months of disrespect and unfair labor practices, the workers at JBS Greeley are done waiting.

The line is drawn. The strike has begun.

UFCW Local 7 members are standing up for dignity, safety, and the contract they deserve. ✊#jbsulpstrike #greeleyco #ufcw7 #unionstrong pic.twitter.com/nBPsazGyF8
— UFCW Local 7 (@UFCW_7) March 16, 2026

According to a union press release , the unfair labor practice (ULP) strike at the JBS-owned Swift Beef plant was set to start at 5:30 a.m. Monday, March 16.

JBS spokesperson Nikki Richardson says, “This morning, many JBS Greeley team members chose to report to work rather than participate in the strike called by UFCW Local 7, and we expect that number to continue increasing in the days ahead. Our team members want stability, they want to support their families, and they deserved the opportunity to vote on the company’s historic offer — an opportunity the union leadership has denied them. We are paying all team members who come to work, and we are operating the facility to the best of our ability this week.”

The union says workers hoped a recent bargaining session would have led to a breakthrough in negotiations with JBS, but instead JBS sent the workers a clear message that the company is putting profits ahead of its people.

“The Union’s member-led bargaining committee has met more than two dozen times with the company in an effort to reach a mutually agreeable contract. JBS is failing to listen to the 99% of its workers who authorized a ULP strike,” the union says in the release. “The Company needs to give them an offer that takes life saving safety equipment seriously, provides wages which meet the rising cost of living in Colorado and ensures rising health care costs do not consume workers’ wages. The Company committed numerous Unfair Labor Practices which are preventing an agreement. The Company continues to threaten to withhold both a proposed bonus and lump-sum pension payment if workers strike. The Company also retaliated against workers who have stood up for their rights and co-workers.”

The union represents 3,800 workers at the plant.

The Greeley plant did not harvest cattle the week of March 9.

“To ensure continuity for our customers and partners, we are temporarily adjusting production across our network as needed,” Richardson explains. “By utilizing available capacity at other JBS facilities, we can maintain supply, protect the long‑term stability of the beef chain and minimize disruption for consumers and retailers. Our priority is to keep product moving while we work toward a resolution in Greeley.”

She summarizes, “We remain focused on supporting our team members, and any employee who reports for their scheduled shift will have work available and will be paid. We will continue scaling operations this week as more team members return.”

Markets Lack Reaction

Live and feeder cattle futures opened higher on Monday morning. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says there are a couple of reasons why the market ignored the strike and the biggest are the higher equity markets and lower crude oil. However, he says it is also tied to the fact the strike news was already priced into the market.

Don Close, senior animal protein analyst at Terrain Ag, joined Chip Flory on AgriTalk Thursday, summarizing the strike will increase packer leverage and help reduce negative margins.

He says even with Greeley down, the industry still has excess slaughter capacity.

“Even with Greeley, with the limited cattle supply we’re dealing with, we still have excess slaughter capacity,” he stresses. “It’s going to give way more leverage to the packers, but it will help them shore up their negative margins.”

Close adds the biggest headache to the industry will be additional freight and added shrink from the extra haul to a different plant.

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University professor of agricultural economics, agrees with Close. “Any disruption in labor availability has largest impacts on producers operating closest to involved plants. In aggregate, I do not expect large fed cattle price impacts as the industry is operating with excess physical capacity, relative to available cattle supplies.”

From an industrywide standpoint, Close downplays the potential disruption to supply.

“From the industry as a whole, the supply of product going out to meet our demand side of the market should be fine,” he says.

John Nalivka, Sterling Marketing Inc. president, says it is hard to predict the impact on the market.

“We have had Tyson’s closure of Lexington [in Nebraska] and a shift taken off the Amarillo plant [in Texas], tariffs, the current Iran situation and oil back to $100/barrel with little to no impact on the market,” he summarizes. “Supplies are tight and demand is strong. These are the overriding factors impacting this beef market. I would not be comfortable with predicting the impact of an impending strike.”

Hyrum Egbert, Riverbend Meats vice president of strategy, sales, accounting, HR, FSQA, logistics, purchasing and warehousing — who authors the biweekly The Big Bad Beef Packer newsletter, which takes a look at packinghouse truths, trends and tough questions — predicts if Greeley goes dark, even temporarily, the immediate reaction is cattle backup fear.

“A potential strike at JBS Greeley is loud ... but it’s not automatically structural,” he says. “Yes, it’s a big plant. But in 2026, cattle availability is the governor, and packers have already been living in ‘under-utilized capacity’ land for a while.”

Egbert summarizes, “This is likely more of a pricing/psychology event than a true supply collapse ... unless it turns into a long, messy, multi-plant labor domino.”

Your Next Read: Can Cattle Recover and is the Greeley Strike Priced In? Row Crops Follow Oil

The Corn Fed Advantage? What’s Really Driving Growing Global Demand for U.S. Beef

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 20:54:13 GMT

Final 2025 export numbers are in, and while U.S. beef exports reflected the realities of tighter cattle supplies and lost access to China, the broader global demand story remains historically strong, according to Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

Speaking during Commodity Classic, Halstrom detailed not only where exports landed in 2025, but what the numbers mean for cattle producers, grain farmers and the industry’s outlook in 2026 as the United States’ ability to supply high-quality corn-fed beef is feeding some of that growth in demand.

2025 Beef Numbers: China Drives the Decline

Looking back at 2025, Halstrom says most of the anticipated decline in beef exports materialized due to tight cattle supplies. But the magnitude of the drop largely centered on one country.

“Looking at the beef side, yeah, we’re down about 10%, 11%,” he says. “But majority of that is China.”
Halstrom says if you take out China, beef demand is steady compared to 2024, which was a historic year.
The issue with China traces back to last April, when China did not renew export registrations for approximately 400 U.S. beef establishments.

“Unfortunately, that was implemented, the ban on the establishments, or they didn’t renew the establishments last April, and that’s the primary reason we’re down,” Halstrom explains.

However, he was quick to point out that removing China from the equation changes the narrative significantly.
“So you take China out of the mix, our value is steady with a year ago, and we’re only down a couple percent on volume,” he says. “So I think that’s the real story here.”

While regaining access to China remains a priority, and could be a topic of discussion when China and the U.S. are poised to hold trade talks in April, Halstrom says the broader global marketplace is performing at exceptionally high levels.

“Obviously, it’s a real priority to try to get China back going again and it’s top of USTR’s list,” he says. “But the real story is that the rest of the world demand is record-breaking and it is really performing.”

With a potential meeting planned between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in early April, Halstrom said he is cautiously optimistic.

“Well, I’m optimistic it will be, yes,” he said when asked whether trade would be part of the discussion. “Because, in my opinion, this is a political thing.”

He adds that from an administrative standpoint, restoring plant listings could be straightforward.
“The actual relisting of 400 establishments is relatively easy, if they choose to do it, in my opinion, from what we’ve heard,” Halstrom says. “So a momentous event like Trump and Xi spending a few days together, as it is planned in early April, could potentially be a breakthrough moment — and at least the first step in a breakthrough.”

Demand is “As Good As I’ve Ever Seen It”

Even without China fully active, Halstrom repeatedly returned to one theme: demand.

“Demand is not a problem,” he said. “The under-supply of cattle is a problem, we all know that, but demand is as good as I’ve ever seen it.”

He pointed to emerging shifts in buyer behavior, particularly in Latin America.

“There’s markets like Guatemala, Central America, even Mexico, that are demanding Choice and higher-graded beef from the U.S.,” he said. “That didn’t use to five to 10 years ago.”

The scale of the shift is notable given current price levels, according to Halstrom.

“Who would have thought that I would never have thought a place like Guatemala would be demanding Prime beef from the U.S. when the cutout for Choice is $360 and higher,” Halstrom says “It’s unbelievable what’s going on.”

After more than four decades in the meat export business, he described the current environment as unprecedented.

“I’ve been in this business now 43, 44th year,” he says. “We’re in an unprecedented area of demand for our product.”

The Corn-Fed Advantage

Halstrom attributed much of that sustained global interest to the unique characteristics of U.S. production.

“A lot of it is the corn-fed product that creates this marbling and this rich taste,” he says. “Nobody else in the world can copy it.”

That differentiation continues to allow U.S. beef to compete at premium price levels, even in developing markets that historically prioritized lower-cost protein options.

Corn and Soybean Growers Aren’t Just Exporting Grain

During Commodity Classic this week, Halstrom emphasized the measurable return meat exports generate for crop producers.

“We actually just finished the computations for 2025,” he says. “Every bushel of corn, $0.58 per bushel of that value is attributable to exports of U.S. pork and beef.”

The soybean impact was even more striking.

“On the soybean side, it was a little over $1 a bushel, just attributable to pork exports,” Halstrom says.
Halstrom says U.S. grain producers aren’t just exporting grain. They’re also exporting meat.

The 2026 Wild Card

Asked what single factor he is watching most closely in 2026, Halstrom again circled back to demand.
“Demand,” he says. “Demand is as good as I’ve ever seen.”

With historically tight cattle supplies likely to persist, maintaining that appetite at elevated price levels will be critical.

“It’s really hard to explain unless you’ve seen it,” Halstrom said of the current export climate. “It’s unbelievable what’s going on.”

If demand continues at today’s pace, and if China reenters the market, the ripple effects could extend well beyond the beef complex, reinforcing value throughout the feed and grain sectors once again.

Why the Southern Plains Became a ‘Perfect Recipe’ for Wildfires

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 21:29:07 GMT

Farmers and ranchers across the Plains are dealing with the aftermath of devastating wildfires .

According to Drovers , fast-moving Ranger Road Fire has already scorched more than 283,000 acres in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas since last week. The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture said Monday it’s now 65% contained, but the devastation has charred thousands of pasture and farmland, also killing an unknown number of cattle.

Flames spread across Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico since last week. While March through April is typically wildfire season in Kansas, conditions across the Plains are creating conditions that are fueling the flames.

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the devastation is the result of a “worst-case scenario” pattern that has been building for months.

A Windy Season Meets Dry Fuels

Bledsoe says in order to understand why conditions are so ripe for wildfires this year, the calendar alone raises red flags.

“From February through early to mid-April, that’s traditionally when we see some of these higher-end wind events,” he explains. “But it’s not just about the wind. It’s about what the wind and fire combine to burn.”

The Southern Plains experienced adequate to above-average moisture over parts of the region during the past year. However, that broader window masks a sharp turn toward dryness in recent months.

When looking at the last 180 days, moisture held on in portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. But conditions deteriorated quickly moving south into the Texas Panhandle. Over the past 90 days, dryness expanded northward into the heart of the wildfire zone.

90-day precip map for the Plains

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Zooming in further, the last 30 days tell the most concerning story. Some locations in the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas have received just 5% to 20% of average precipitation.

That rapid drying followed a warm-season growing period that produced ample vegetation. Once cured and left without additional moisture or snow cover, those grasses became prime fuel.

“You grow up all that vegetation during the warm season, then you dry it out and don’t get anything else to keep it somewhat wet so it doesn’t burn. It’s a perfect recipe,” Bledsoe says.

Precipitation over the past 30 days.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

Wildfires in the Plains

The setup isn’t without precedent. In late February 2024, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned more than a million acres in the Canadian River Valley of the Texas Panhandle under similar conditions, which were strong winds, above-average warmth and critically dry fuels.

“This is not unprecedented for the Western High Plains this time of year,” Bledsoe notes. “It’s just the worst-case scenario when you put all those things together.”

Little Relief in the Forecast

Unfortunately for producers hoping for moisture, the near-term outlook offers limited help.

Over the next 10 days, much of the U.S. is expected to trend drier than average. The only notably wet areas are projected to be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the Plains, with colder air remaining locked in Canada.

The short-term forecast shows little relief for much of the U.S.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

Above normal temperatures could also pose a problem for producers in the West and Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

“This pattern is not going to be that favorable to grace those areas that we’re dealing with the wildfires with any real significant moisture,” Bledsoe says. “In fact, you see a pretty good chunk of the U.S. that will likely see just drier than average conditions for that 10-day period. Not necessarily dry for everybody, but drier than average. The only really wet areas will be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. And we’re going to revert back to the warmth too.”

Looking ahead to March, extended European model guidance suggests a continuation of the pattern: dry conditions across California, Arizona, New Mexico and much of Texas and the Southwest High Plains, with wetter conditions developing farther east.

The extended forecast shows little relief across the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

March is often a volatile month, Bledsoe says, bringing sharp contrasts between “haves” and “have-nots” in terms of precipitation.

“You’re going to the haves farther east, and then areas farther south and west that have been kind of shut out are probably going struggle a little bit. And time, I know it only takes one storm to change this narrative here in the Western High Plains to cover the ground with snow or put more moisture in the ground or kind of turn the corner,” he says. “But right now this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”

Bledsoe knows more than anyone that the forecast can change, but the set-up right now doesn’t look favorable for moisture in the Plains through March.

“It only takes one storm to change the narrative, to cover the ground with snow or put meaningful moisture back into the soil,” he says. “But right now, this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”

For livestock producers and farmers across the High Plains, that means continued vigilance. With cured grasses, persistent wind and limited precipitation in the forecast, wildfire risk may remain elevated as the region moves deeper into its traditional spring wind season.

The Cattleman's Call That Never Fades: Scott Wolverton’s Journey From Farm to Fame

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 14:08:43 GMT

For Scott Wolverton , the path to Nashville didn’t begin under bright stage lights or inside a recording studio. It started on a cattle farm in southeast Nebraska — where early mornings, livestock chores and county fairs were simply part of everyday life.

Raised on a cow-calf operation in Seward, Neb., Wolverton grew up immersed in agriculture. He started taking guitar lessons when he was 10. He says music was always there, but it wasn’t always the priority.

“I grew up on a small cattle farm,” Wolverton says. “We have a cow-calf operation back home. I grew up playing music here and there, but it really took the back burner to football, baseball, wrestling, 4-H events, showing cattle and doing all that stuff.”

Agriculture wasn’t just something Wolverton participated in. It was embedded in his family.

“My dad’s a veterinarian back home in Seward. He has a small cow-calf operation, K.A.W. Red Angus, and that’s what we would show cattle through and do all that stuff, 4-H projects,” Wolverton says. “My mom works for 4-H Extension out of Seward County. She helps with after-school programs for kids. She helps the county fair set up, running this county fair, hiring judges, all the livestock shows. She does a lot of that.”

Wolverton, his older brother and twin sister were raised around livestock, showing both Red Angus cattle and horses. It was those experiences on the farm and showing livestock that prepared him for the challenges of building a career in Nashville.

“I feel like I learned a lot about responsibility and work ethic just through working with animals, working with my dad and my siblings on the farm and doing just everyday things out there,” Wolverton says.

(Provided by Scott Wolverton)

A Chance Introduction That Changed Everything

Growing up, Wolverton’s interests were split between 4-H and athletics. Baseball, in particular, became a major focus. In college, he majored in agronomy — a natural extension of his agricultural upbringing — while also pursuing baseball seriously enough that it eventually became his career. Wolverton coached at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas, and during that time, he quietly began recording music on his own.

What he didn’t expect was that a casual connection would open a door he never saw coming. The coaches he worked with introduced him to a man who would eventually become his manager.

That manager, Zach, happened to be in Hutchinson one night when an opportunity surfaced almost out of nowhere — a chance for Wolverton to open for country artist Riley Green in Salt Lake City the very next day.

“I was like, ‘OK, that’s awesome. I don’t know if I’m going to get there. That’s about 21 hours away,’” Wolverton says. “And he said, ‘We’ll just fly you out, and then fly you back on Friday.’ And so I flew out Thursday morning, played the show Thursday night, and flew back on a Friday morning. And I’m back in time for practice that afternoon.”

The experience was fast, surreal and life-altering for a farm kid from Nebraska.

“It was kind of surreal in the moment. The Riley Green thing kind of came out of the blue,” Wolverton says. “And it was one of those things where you’re kind of like, it happened so quickly. In the moment I was kind of like, ‘Is this really where I’m at right now?’ Because it happened in less than 24 hours. I was on a plane and back in Kansas.”

That moment set Wolverton on a new path — one that eventually led him to Nashville and a full-time pursuit of country music. But even as his career shifted, his connection to agriculture never faded.

(Provided by Scott Wolverton)

His Inspiration

Wolverton says his main inspiration as a songwriter comes from home and how he was raised — the work, love and lifestyle he learned growing up around cattle.

“A lot of my inspiration comes from home,” Wolverton says. “It comes from where I grew up, what I grew up doing, that west country life, I guess. It’s very simple, but a lot of it has to do with work ethic, my faith, that kind of lifestyle.”

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Scott Wolverton (@scottywolverton)

His Most Personal Song Yet

One of his most personal songs, “ Cattleman’s Call ,” draws directly from his upbringing and a sound that defined his childhood.

“My dad has always done that cow, the ‘come-boss,’ cattle call, and it’s always been such a fascinating thing to me because growing up as a little kid, you hear your dad scream and you’re like, ‘What was that?’” Wolverton explains. “And then you kind of learn about it, but it’s so amazing the cows always come right when he calls. They’ll perk their heads up and you can see them just start walking because they know they’re going to get taken care of.”

That cattle call became more than a memory. It became a metaphor and a message.

“My parents have been my rock throughout college baseball and just life in general,” he says. “My dad’s always called me and he’s always been very reassuring of, ‘Hey man, if anything ever happens, you fall flat on your face, you can always come home.’ And so, I tried really hard to relate that cattle call to that feeling, and that’s kind of where that inspiration really came from.”

Released last summer, “Cattleman’s Call” serves as both a tribute to his father and a reflection of the values Wolverton learned growing up in agriculture — values that continue to guide him in an industry that demands persistence and grit.

“Working in any branch of agriculture, a lot of it is hard work. It takes a lot of discipline, it takes a lot of hard work, it take a lot know-how or ‘figure it out,’” Wolverton says. “And the music industry is not a whole lot different from that. It’s really difficult. There’s a lot people doing it. You kind of got to find a way to stand out. And I feel very prepared in that way through the hard work and the dedication that I learned through working with animals, through working on the farm.”

From cattle country to country music, Scott Wolverton’s journey is rooted in the land and shaped by the lessons learned on a Nebraska farm. No matter how far the road takes him, the call of home is never far away.

Trump Signs Executive Order Quadrupling Beef Imports from Argentina to Keep Ground Beef Affordable

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 22:39:01 GMT

In a move aimed at easing pressure on U.S. beef supplies and keeping prices in check for consumers, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Feb. 6, 2026, temporarily quadrupling imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina under the U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ).

The action comes as USDA confirmed just last week the U.S. cattle herd is now at a 75-year low . Not only are producers showing no signs of herd rebuilding, the White House says low cattle supplies can be attributed to droughts and wildfires in 2022 that impacted key U.S. cattle-producing states, including Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, which have constrained domestic beef production.

Compounding the supply challenges are restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico following detections of the New World screwworm have limited feedlot stocks, contributing to a record-low U.S. cattle herd.

“As President, I have a responsibility to ensure that hard-working Americans can afford to feed themselves and their families,” the proclamation states. “To increase the supply of ground beef for U.S. consumers, I am taking action to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. beef TRQ.”

The proclamation authorizes an 80,000 metric ton increase in in-quota lean beef trimmings imports for 2026, which will be allocated entirely to Argentina. The additional beef will be distributed in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons each, beginning Feb. 13, 2026, and continuing through the end of the year.

Record Beef Prices Drive Action

U.S. consumers have seen beef prices climb steadily in recent years, with ground beef reaching an average price of $6.69 per pound in December 2025, which was the highest level recorded since the 1980s. Despite higher prices and the availability of alternative proteins, demand for beef remains strong, prompting record beef imports of 4.64 billion pounds in 2024, a 24% increase over the previous year.

But this is not the first time President Trump has proposed measures to address rising beef costs. In October 2025, he told reporters at the White House, “We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef. The price of beef is higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” without elaborating.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) responded at the time with a strong warning, criticizing the President’s approach. NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says. the plan risked “damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

He emphasizes concerns about trade imbalances, the risk of introducing foreign animal diseases from Argentina, and the importance of focusing on domestic solutions such as New World screwworm facilities, regulatory reforms, and disease prevention programs.

The Trump administration, however, argues the current import expansion is a necessary response to natural disasters and market disruptions that have reduced domestic beef supply. The administration will continue monitoring supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures that may be necessary to ensure stable beef prices for American families.

This proclamation highlights ongoing challenges facing U.S. cattle producers, including climate-related disruptions, disease risks, and supply chain pressures, while signaling the administration’s willingness to leverage international trade to stabilize consumer costs.

Are Beef Prices Too High? Consumer Demand Signals No

Since the president’s initial comments in October, there’s been a debate about if beef prices are too high. Oklahoma State extension livestock specialist Derrell Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Terrain’s Don Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Economists Weigh In: Can Beef Prices Be Lowered Without Harming Producers?

In October, Trump’s initial comments tanked the cattle market. To better understand whether retail beef prices can be reduced without affecting cattle markets, Farm Journal spoke with two economists and livestock market experts. When asked if there’s a way to lower beef prices without impacting cattle futures, both economists say the short answer is, “no.”

“Simple answer is no,” says Close. “I would add to that that when we look at beef prices in relationship to the other proteins, I would absolutely say that pork and broilers have been a beneficiary of the record high beef prices. No doubt. But they are not yet to a point that they are a detriment to beef prices; beef is still gaining market share relative to other proteins.”

David Anderson, extension livestock economist at Texas A&M, echoed that perspective. “I think it’s a great, interesting question, but from the ranch to wholesale beef to retail beef, these prices are all related,” Anderson says. “If it was possible to do something that actually brought down retail prices to consumers, it’s going to have an effect upstream, downstream, however you want to call that. But even then, I’m not sure there’s much you can do to bring down retail prices. We’ve got a product that’s in demand. Even though we look at our nominal retail beef prices that are record high, I think that for consumers, beef delivers value for the money and they’re going to keep buying. That and tighter supplies is a recipe for higher prices. People continue to buy. There’s a bunch of big trends there, heck, let’s eat more protein, you know, and that helps the whole meat complex: beef, dairy, eggs, beans, you name it. So while this supports cattle prices, it also means there’s not a whole lot you can do to bring down beef prices significantly.”

New U.S.-Argentina Trade Deal Sets Stage For President Trump’s Latest Proclamation

The move this week follows a new trade and investment agreement between the United States and Argentina, signed earlier this week by USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentina’s Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno. The agreement provides preferential market access for U.S. goods, eliminates or reduces tariffs on a wide range of products, and enhances cooperation on economic and national security issues.

On agriculture, Argentina has agreed to open its market to U.S. poultry and poultry products within a year and simplify export regulations for U.S. beef and pork. The agreement also requires Argentina to accept U.S. food safety and regulatory standards for meat and poultry, while prohibiting restrictions on U.S. use of certain cheese names, such as asiago, feta, or camembert.

USTR officials said the deal will also enhance cooperation on export controls for sensitive items, protect telecommunications infrastructure, and prevent digital trade barriers that could affect U.S. tech companies. Although China is not mentioned in the text, the agreement is designed to strengthen U.S.-Argentina coordination in addressing unfair trade practices from third countries.

What’s Ahead?

The Trump administration will continue monitoring domestic beef supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures necessary to maintain affordable prices for American consumers. While some in the cattle industry remain cautious about importing Argentinian beef, the administration frames the decision as a short-term solution to natural disasters and market disruptions that have tightened domestic beef availability.

Buckle Up: Cattle Market Structure Signals the Highs May Still Be Ahead

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:51:04 GMT

For cattle producers wondering whether today’s price levels are sustainable, or whether the market has already peaked, the underlying fundamentals suggest the industry may not be finished yet. Despite historically high cattle and beef prices, the U.S. cow herd continues to contract, herd rebuilding has yet to meaningfully begin and beef demand remains resilient even as prices climb. And when you combine those forces together, it’s a recipe that indicates tight supplies are likely to persist well into the second half of the decade, setting the stage for continued strength, and potentially even higher highs yet this year.

That outlook was reinforced during a U.S. Farm Report roundtable markets discussion at this year’s CattleCon in Nashville, with Oklahoma State University Extension livestock economist Derrell Peel, Don Close, senior protein analyst for Terrain, and Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.

Close has been in the business for 48 years, and he says he’s waited his whole career for this, as the dynamics in the cattle market continue to build a strong case for cattle prices. And while there is definite risk at these price levels, and volatility is certain, both Peel and Close are bullish on cattle this year.

Inventory Report Confirms the Industry is Still Shrinking

The latest USDA Cattle Inventory report released last week showed another year-over-year decline in beef cows, underscoring just how tight supplies have become. While the number itself was not shocking, the market’s reaction reflected the realization that contraction is not over.

“The fact that [the beef herd] was down some was not a particular surprise,” Peel says. “I thought it also could have been up slightly, so plus or minus unchanged. It came in a little smaller than that. But in general, the report from my standpoint was pretty much what I expected.”

What matters most, according to Peel, is not a single percentage point, but the trend line producers are still on.

“The net effect is we continue to get smaller in this industry, and we are not growing at this point,” he adds.

For producers hoping tighter numbers would soon give way to expansion, the report instead confirmed the industry is still digging deeper into contraction.

Replacement Heifers Signal Intention, Not Expansion

One of the few increases in the report came in beef replacement heifers, but Close cautions producers should not confuse that with meaningful herd growth.

“I think it’s an encouraging indication that they’re starting to think about it,” Close says. “If you look at the offset to the decline in count numbers to an increase of 42,000, 44,000 heifers, there’s no real offset there. We’re still in the infancy of any expansion, and it can, depending on weather, go either way.”

From Close’s perspective, the increase reflects mindset more than action. After several years of drought and forced liquidation, producers are beginning to consider rebuilding, but that process is slow, cautious and far from uniform.

“I think the anecdotal evidence we’re seeing when talking with producers is [they’re] starting to see some very modest expansion,” he says. “And I would conclude with the number of ads we’re seeing online of bred heifers for sale, we’re just starting.”

That “just starting” phase suggests calf supplies will remain tight for several more years, even if expansion intentions continue to grow.

Very Solid Technical Uptrend in Cattle

From a market structure standpoint, Vaclavik says cattle and feeder cattle futures continue to reflect the supply realities producers are seeing today.

“The cattle market and the feeder cattle market are two of the strongest and most orderly bull markets that we’ve seen in a long, long time,” he says.

Vaclavik points to the long-term chart as evidence the rally is not speculative, but fundamentally driven.

“You basically go back, and it’s very easy to see. You go back to when the lows were posted in 2020, like right around the COVID timeframe, and what we built out of that,” he says. “I know there’s been some volatility, but big picture, it’s a very, very solid technical uptrend.”

While he acknowledges the potential for short-term disruptions, Vaclavik says the underlying fundamentals remain firmly in control.

“I just, I don’t see anything fundamentally to set this thing back,” he says. “I do worry about things like headline risk. You know, you worry about ‘Is Trump going to go on another crusade against beef prices?’ ‘Is there going to be a screwworm headline?’ There’s a lot of things that, over the near term, could result in a setback.”

However, he emphasizes recent inventory data does little to change the bigger picture.

“I just, I don’t see it as being material. It’s not enough to reverse the course,” Vaclavik says.

Market Structure Suggests the Highs May Not Be In Yet

When asked whether cattle prices have already peaked, Close was clear in his assessment.

“We’re not convinced we’ve seen the highs,” he says.

Looking at supply constraints and demand strength, he sees room for additional gains in fed cattle prices.

“We’re thinking we could see fed cattle prices this year up an additional 8% to as much as 10% over the average prices we saw in 2025,” Close says.

He points out the market correction tied to political headlines last fall ultimately strengthened the rally prices are currently experiencing, rather than ending it.

“When we went through that period in October, we had the headlines and the involvement from the administration, and that really gave us a scare, but it also gave a correction in the market,” he explains. “So, when we take the fundamentals we think we’ve been working with, and that was confirmed in that cattle inventory report last Friday, I think the structure of the market to continue the rally is absolutely in place.”

Even with the resounding bullish sentiment headlining the discussion, Vaclavik has a clear and pointed message for producers.

“I love all this optimism, but it scares me a little bit. Remember to keep your business a business. Don’t gamble,” he says.

Herd Rebuilding Timeline Keeps Slipping

One of the most critical implications for producers is how far the industry has delayed rebuilding the cow herd.

“We keep pushing off the timeline,” Peel says. “Every year that we could have started some heifer retention, we haven’t. So, I think we’re still pushing off that timeline.”

Even if producers begin retaining heifers in 2026, Peel says the biological clock means supply relief will not arrive quickly.

“If we start saving heifers in 2026, then that’s the start, but time it out. If you save a heifer calf in ’26, breed her in ’27, it’s 2028 or the end of the decade before we change beef production,” he says.

Peel also notes replacement heifers will first be used just to hold the line.

“The small increase we saw in replacement heifers may signal that we’re thinking about it a little bit,” he says. “But the other thing you have to keep in mind is that the beef cow herd has gotten smaller, and we’ve been culling less, so we need to replace some of those cows going forward. It’s going to take some of these additional heifers just to maintain the herd we’ve got.”

Delayed Culling Could Push Slaughter Higher

Close adds that years of holding onto older cows could create another wrinkle in the supply picture.

“If you take the number of cows that probably should have gone to town, but were kept back in 2024 to get one more calf, the same thing repeated in 2025,” he says. “I actually think we could see a modest increase in cow slaughter in 2026 just because of those cows that we kept an extra year or two longer than they probably should have stayed.”

That dynamic could further slow the pace of true herd expansion, even as producers begin thinking about rebuilding.

Another Bullish Factor: Beef Demand Continues to Hold Firm

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

Tighter supplies mean prices may need to rise further.

“We do have supply getting tighter, and it’s going to continue to get tighter, which probably means we’re going to use higher prices in the future to ration a tighter supply even compared to where we are now,” Peel says.

What it All Means for Cattle Producers

With herd rebuilding still largely on hold, cow numbers continuing to tighten and beef demand holding firm, their message to producers is consistent: the fundamentals that drove cattle prices to record levels are still in place. While volatility and headline risk remain, the supply-side realities suggest the market may not yet be finished rewarding cattle producers as the industry heads toward 2026.

Frozen Calf Gets Spa Treatment and Couch Cuddles During Arctic Blast

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 16:00:49 GMT

With the cattle herd still at multi-decade lows, every calf counts more than ever. That’s especially true during these last few days as arctic air and winter storms poured into the lower 48.

Macey Sorrell and her family live and farm in Mt. Sterling, Ky. As the area recently experienced storms of freezing rain and sheets of ice, the Sorrells welcomed a new calf into the world.

“Whenever my husband found her, she was maybe two hours old and she was already frozen with ice all in her hair,” Sorrell describes. “Her little umbilical cord looked like a popsicle. So I took the truck back there, put the calf in the bed of the truck and brought her in the house.”

Blankets, a hair dryer, a good rub down and bottle of colostrum helped warm the new baby up.

“After she got her belly full, she was ready for a nap,” Sorrell says. “My kids had also fallen asleep, so I just piled her up on the couch with them for some cuddles.”

The pictures she snapped while the little ones slept are cute enough to warm even the coldest heart. The moment, frozen in time, is now going viral.

“The reaction has been crazy,” Sorrell laughs. “You know, anywhere around here, this is nothing new. You’re going to see a calf inside, a sheep or even a goat. Folks are going to bring the babies inside. I think what made it so special was just the calf on the couch with the babies cuddling.”

The next morning, warm and newly named baby Sally had a happy reunion with her mama.

“When her mama heard her mooing, she came running,” Sorrell says. “Sally started nursing, and they have both been really good since.”

Sorrell and her husband, Tanner, are pleased with the results and the life lessons for their little crew.

“I think, if anything, it’s not an animal. It is a life, and we’ll do whatever we can to help not only an animal but anybody,” Sorrell says. “There’s always a space in my house for a critter.”

The cold is still visiting. More snow is in the forecast. The work at America’s farms and ranches never stops. Since Sally arrived, more babies have been born in the cold.

“We actually had a baby calf born just a few days before that one, and then another one born yesterday,” Sorrell says.

And life on the farm continues, both inside and out.

It’s not just Kentucky dealing with the severe winter storm aftermath and the devastation it left behind. As of Jan. 31, 2026, it was reported over 150,000 homes and businesses remain without power across the Mid-South, specifically in Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana, following a severe winter storm.

Farm Journal’s Chris Bennett says it could be weeks before his area of Mississippi will have power again, as he describes the horrific scene from last week’s winter storm.

U.S. Cattle Inventory Hits 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:08:09 GMT

As of Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. beef cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, continuing a downward trend. Despite a year of strong prices, USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. cattle inventory shrank another 0.35% and now sits at its smallest size in 75 years.

“I would say the story continues,” summarizes Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University. “I mean, it really doesn’t change the pattern that we’ve been in for the last three years now.”

Quick Report Stats:

Total Cattle and Calves Inventory: 86.2 million head (Down 0.35%)
Beef Cow Herd: 27.6 million head (Down 1%)
2025 Calf Crop: 32.9 million head (Smallest since 1941)
Beef Replacement Heifers: 4.71 million head (Up 1%)

Patrick Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, calls the report bullish.

“I think the big picture message of this report is expansion, while there was some signs of it within this report, by and large expansion remains elusive at this point,” he says.

What Are the Big Takeaways from the USDA Report?

According to Peel, the data highlights two critical areas:

1. Shrinking Cow Herd: The beef cow inventory fell 1% to 27.6 million head.
“The industry technically got a little smaller in 2025,” Peel says.

Linnell adds, “As you looked at just how tight beef cow slaughter was this past year, us and other groups had expected we would actually see an increase in the beef cow herd. Small, but an increase nonetheless. However, that’s not what this report showed.”

2. Heifer Retention Signs: Beef replacement heifers rose 1% to 4.71 million.
“There was a slight uptick in beef replacement heifers, not enough to amount to any growth in 2026, or probably even in 2027, but maybe it’s the beginnings [of a rebuild].”

John Nalivka, Sterling Marketing Inc. president, says the report indicates while replacement heifers was up 1% and those expected to calve were also up 1% from 2024 or 17% of the beef cow herd.

“From 2015 to 2018 when producers began aggressively building herds, the average number of heifers that were identified as replacements on the Jan. 1 inventory was 6.2 million or an average heifer retention rate of 21%,” he explains.

Nalivka says heifer slaughter during 2025, at 9.5 million, was down 7% from the prior year but still represented 52% of the heifers weighing more than 500 lb. on Jan. 1, 2025. In 2024, the industry slaughtered 56% of the January 1 heifers weighing more than 500 lb.

“When the industry was retaining heifers to build herds, the percentage of heifers weighing over 500 lb. that were slaughtered ranged from 39% to 49%,” he adds.

Why is the 2025 Calf Crop Significant?

The calf crop estimate was reduced to 32.9 million head — a 2% drop from 2024. This marks the smallest U.S. calf crop since 1941. This scarcity will be the primary driver for market dynamics in the coming years.

The calf crop in 1941 was approximately 31.8 million head. While the industry saw a significant liquidation in 2014, the calf crop that year only dropped to roughly 33.5 million. This means the current contraction has pushed production levels back more than 80 years.

Outlook: What Will Cattle and Beef Prices Do in 2026?

Peel predicts the small calf crop and tightening feeder supplies will push prices even higher.

“We’ve got record-high prices, and we’re going to see them push even higher for cattle and beef,” Peel says.

He reminds producers it’s important to keep in mind that it’s not just about supply.

“Demand has also continued to be remarkably good for beef as prices have gone up,” he says. “Beef prices have increased relative to pork and poultry. There are alternative proteins that consumers could be turning to, and they’re not. So that’s a very positive sign from a beef industry standpoint.”

The “Historically Slow” Rebuild

Unlike the rapid expansion seen 10 years ago, Peel expects this cycle to be much slower. Producers are cautious, remembering how quickly record prices vanished in the past.

“I do think we’re probably beginning, but it’s certainly not a concerted effort,” Peel says. “There’s not a strong, broad-based initiative in the industry. It will probably grow, but I think it’s going to continue to grow pretty slowly.”

He explains the industry has outlasted the previous cycle highs by two-plus years.

“I think producers are coming around to the idea that this is a more sustained story,” Peel says.

What is the Take-Home Message for Producers?

The market is signaling a desperate need for a rebuild.

“The incentive is there, the value of forage is there,” he says. “If you’ve got forage you can use to raise calves, the market wants you to do that. And if you aren’t fully stocked, then it’s encouraging you to think about doing that. I think the main message for producers is to take advantage of this market.”

He also encourages producers to maintain the productivity of their herds.

“We have cut cow culling so far in the last two to three years that some of these cows are going to have to be culled going forward,” he explains. “So, we got to have a few more replacement heifers just to maintain the productivity of the herd. Take care of that first and then if you need to restock. I understand the tradeoff between selling them now for what is a record price versus investing in the future, but you know, sooner or later, we have to make that investment and look a little bit farther down the road.”

Other January cattle report highlights include:

Of the 86.2 million head inventory of all cattle and calves, cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million.
The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased 2% to 9.57 million.
The number of cattle on feed was down 3% to 13.8 million.

Nalivka adds, “Only time will tell as the year progresses to determine if USDA’s Cattle Inventory is on track. One cross-check will be cattle slaughter which is an actual number reported to USDA by the packers. The inventory is generated from an annual survey number. I understand that USDA aligns annual surveys with the five-year Agricultural Census. To say the least, I have greater confidence in numbers reported to USDA that can cross-check the validity of the survey.”

He does not expect the Cattle Inventory Report to have an impact on cattle numbers or the market going forward through 2026 and into 2027, particularly with a 2% smaller 2025 calf crop.

“Numbers will continue to tighten and when coupled with continued strong demand for beef will support the market at levels at and likely above the market peak seen during third quarter 2025,” he summarizes.

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University ag economist, posted on LinkedIn his analysis of the report. He shares state-level beef cow inventory estimates (of seven states with more than 1 million head) Kansas’ 7% decline stands out while Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and Texas are estimated to be down 1-3% and Oklahoma and South Dakota are flat. Only Texas has a sizeable increase in estimated replacement heifers.

He shares two broader points:

While it certainly is valuable to count the number of beef cows, understand status of herd expansion, and other factors that is far from a complete story on industry supply dynamics. In short, the industry has implemented a number of efficiency gains resulting in the net effect of more edible beef production per cow in the industry.
It has become way too common to focus on supply and overlook demand dynamics. In fact, recent work with Brian Coffey documents how recent beef price patterns have been impacted more by strong consumer beef demand than any supply-side adjustments .

Analyzing the inventory numbers Peel summarizes, “It’s just amazing to me that we continue down this path. We’ve kept extending the timeline. You know, technically, with the beef cow herd and the way we look at cattle cycles, I thought 2025 would turn out to be officially the low. Well, now we’re even smaller in 2026, so we will have to wait until next year’s number to see whether this is the low. We just keep pushing this timeline out that provides even more opportunities for producers to take advantage of this market.”

Bi-annual Cattle report would be called lightly positive. 1) There was no sign of any type of January 2015 expansion (retained beef heifers +9.5%). 2) Overall, numbers came in just below the four analyst expectation. pic.twitter.com/lvNaDBusz3
— Rich Nelson (@RichNelsonMkts) January 30, 2026

To obtain an accurate measurement of the current state of the U.S. cattle industry, NASS surveyed approximately 35,000 operators across the nation during the first half of January. Surveyed producers were asked to report their cattle inventories as of Jan. 1, 2026, and calf crop for the entire year of 2025 by internet, mail, telephone or in-person interview.

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Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 17:56:32 GMT

While fundamentals continue to drive the cattle market, increasing prevalence of external factors can play havoc day-to-day.

Based on placements the past six months, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek believes the tightest supply of this entire cattle cycle will occur in the next 60 to 90 days. It wouldn’t be the first-time the market makes a high in February or March.

“Now beyond that, I don’t see there’s a tremendous chance to have an oversupply of cattle going into the summer,” he adds. “However, you’ve got things like the Mexican border that are coming into play. So, I’m trying to react to what I see, but the fundamentals aren’t going to change.”

Here are seven other takeaways from Kooima’s recent conversation with Chip Flory on AgriTalk:

1. Fundamentals Still Drive The Cattle Market.

“I wish we could just talk about cattle fundamentals,” he says. “I’m still an old-school fundamentalist who believes a lot in trying to figure out where we’re at with supply and how we’re getting along with the boxes and beef demand.”

Rumors and misguided comments, such as the New World screwworm (NWS) scare a week ago and geopolitical factors this past Tuesday, can cause the markets to react.

“Now, is it only supply? Of course not,” Kooima says, regarding what drives the markets. “But if I had to start there, barring more of this outside, new stuff we’ve been inundated with, I think the market still generally driving the deal. We don’t have enough cattle, and that’s why they’re cutting kill. That’s why they’re closing plants. There’s not enough to go around.”

2. Heifer Retention Exists But Isn’t a Major Market Factor.

Kooima says heifer retention has started but is insufficient to significantly change the supply trajectory.

“It’s not like 2015 when we flipped a switch and the whole world decided to save them at one time, but it’s there,” he says.

He’s predicting a 1% to 2% increase, saying the retention is regional — referring to the Dakotas, Montana and Colorado.

“What’s driving it is economics,” Kooima says. Some ranchers can’t afford to not sell their heifer calves, while other factors include the age of the rancher, no desire to deal with first-calf heifers and drought.

When asked if there is enough heifer retention to move the needle to bring some relief on the supply side, Kooima responds: “The short answer would be no. We’re never going to have a cow herd like we had 10 years ago. We’re going to have to figure out how to do with less.”

He says the strategy to increase supply is feeding to heavier weights and the growth in beef-on-dairy.

“The gorilla in the room, to me, is beef-on-dairy,” he says. “From a couple of standpoints, just from a raw supply standpoint, the dairy cow herd’s the biggest since 1993. It’s grown and grown, and why wouldn’t you if you can get $1,200 to $1,500 for a day-old calf?”

3. Mexico Has Built Feeding and Processing Infrastructure in Response to Border Closure.

Kooima says with the U.S.-Mexico border closed due to NWS, Mexico has figured out how to finish and process cattle.

“I think there’s a lot of people there who don’t want anything to happen,” he says, regarding reopening the border. “They’re benefiting from this great big bull market and now they’re selling the beef to us. So, it may never exactly be the way it was again. They waited too long on this matter, in my opinion. It’s not a market factor.”

4. Beef-on-Dairy and Vertical Integration Are Rising Concerns.

Kooima shares his concern about the long-term implications of vertical integration and the consequences of the growing beef-on-dairy supply.

“For the first time, you got an integrator that has the ability to control that thing from its birthday and schedule it out 341 days later to slaughter,” he explains. “A dream that the packers chase. I watched them wreck the hog market. I see what happened in poultry. This scares me to death. The combination of all of that is we’re losing price discovery. They’re going to try to slow it down as much as they can until they can control the supply.”

5. Packers Are Adapting to the Market.

Kooima says the closing of Tyson’s Lexington plant and shift reduction at its Amarillo plant are examples of the broad industry trend to reduce harvest rates and shutter facilities when supplies tighten. He explains the closing will result in even less negotiated trade. The Lexington plant primarily did formula (non-negotiated) pricing, and he predicts those formula customers will now go to Tyson’s Dakota City plant.

“Dakota City, a plant that’s closest to me, 64 miles away, is likely going to become a formula plant. It’s going to further deteriorate price discovery up in this neck of the woods,” he stresses.

He adds packers are also using tight supplies as an opportunity to perform necessary cooler clean-out cycles and reduce the number of harvest days per week.

“They’re systematically reducing kill to try to gain some leverage back,” Kooima says.

When it comes to regional packers, he hopes they can survive: “I think they’re critical to price discovery.”

6. Demand for Beef Remains Strong.

Kooima is bullish about beef demand, especially amid supply tightness.

“When people say demand is pretty good, I go ‘No, it is phenomenal,’” he says. “The demand for grind is crazy. We have to make sure we can continue to fuel that rocket.”

7. Risk Management is Essential Amid Market Uncertainty.

On protecting against risk, Kooima advises: “My mantra is and has been for a year and a half to buy some puts. You’re going to have to buy puts to keep you in business. Let’s not let 2015 happen to us again.”

He goes on to add: “Do I think that there’s a high-risk point here in the short term? No, obviously, I just said I think we’ve got the tightest numbers ever, but there’s always something that can go wrong, so be careful.”

Listen to Kooima’s and Flory’s AgriTalk conversation here:

Your Next Read — Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What’s Next in 2026?

The New Beef Powerhouse? As Brazil Overtakes the U.S., Here’s What It Means

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 21:54:26 GMT

The global beef landscape is witnessing a historic changing of the guard. According to recent reporting from Reuters , Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading beef producer.

While the U.S. industry grapples with a significant herd contraction, Brazil’s production has defied earlier bearish forecasts to take the top spot on the global stage.

In 2025, U.S. beef production fell by 3.9%, dropping to 11.8 million tons. In stark contrast, Brazil’s production, which analysts at Rabobank previously expected to decline, surged by 0.5% to reach 12.5 million tons in carcass weight equivalent.

And as Mike North of Ever.ag and Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, told “U.S. Farm Report,” Brazil’s growth isn’t a shock, but it is something that is changing the global dynamics of the beef industry.

The Feed Engine: Why Brazil’s Growth Isn’t a Shock

For many in the industry, Brazil’s ascent is the result of years of aggressive agricultural expansion. Mike North, of Ever.ag, notes the foundation of Brazil’s livestock success is its massive grain production capacity.

“Livestock industries depend on the availability of feed, and let’s look at the track record,” North explains. “They’re continuing to grow bigger and bigger crops each year. As we look at their exports, yes, they’ve become a growing partner to China, especially in our absence, but they have enough there to also feed a growing livestock industry.”

North points out Brazil’s “double-crop” system, planting soybeans followed immediately by a second crop of corn (safrinha), has created a consistent, high-volume feed supply that the U.S. is finding harder to compete with.

“The writing’s kind of been on the wall as they grow more and more soybeans and then backfill that during the second crop with more and more corn,” North says. “The gates are open, and they walk through them. This doesn’t come as a shock.”

However, North warns that volume isn’t everything. Brazil still faces hurdles in global perception.

“It’ll be an interesting thing to see what they do as those cattle leave the feedlot, go to processing, and whether or not they can meet all the phytosanitary concerns that the world demands as that meat leaves the country,” he explains.

A Shift in Market Sentiment: From Bullish to Neutral

For the past several years, Basse has been one of the most vocal bulls in the cattle market. However, the combination of Brazil’s dominance and shifting domestic factors has caused him to re-evaluate his position.

“I’ve been bullish for about the last four years,” Basse admits, “but I’m starting to see where there’s some solutions to the tightness in the beef market in particular. My outlook is starting to be a little more neutral, or let’s say, in a wide-swinging market.”

Basse notes international beef is increasingly filling the void left by the shrinking U.S. herd. Imports from Brazil and Australia are becoming a “solution” to high domestic prices, potentially capping the market’s upside.

“As you look at Australian and Brazilian imports of beef, it is going to be something that will keep this market under the high that we scored last October,” Basse says. “I’d be a little careful here on feeders, because while people are still optimistic, I’m becoming less bullish of cattle just based on imports.”

The “Ozempic” Factor and the Dairy Influence on Supply

Beyond international trade, Basse says internal shifts in the U.S. protein market are also underway. Interestingly, he says that while general protein demand remains high, partially influenced by health trends and weight-loss medications like Ozempic, the U.S. is finding new ways to supplement beef supplies.

“As we look at the dairy herd, we’re keeping back numbers,” Basse says. “We’re seeing more cross-calves being produced by the dairy industry. Between that and the expansion of imports into the United States, the supply picture is changing.”

Looking Toward the Horizon

While Brazil’s production numbers are the headline, several wild cards remain for 2025. Basse points to the upcoming USDA inventory report as a critical data point that will determine the next leg of the market. Additionally, biological threats remain a concern for the coming year.

“Screwworm is something we’ll have to deal with as we turn the page to April or May of next year,” Basse cautions.

For now, the U.S. cattle industry finds itself in a period of transition, watching a southern competitor take the lead while navigating a domestic market that might have already seen its historical highs. Yet, as the U.S. cattle herd remains tight, Brazil could continue to outproduce the U.S., just based on the fact it will take years for the U.S. to rebuild the cattle herd. And some economists think the herd might never get back to cattle numbers the U.S. saw at its highs.

Tyson's Lexington Beef Plant Shutters Early: No Shifts Scheduled This Week

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 15:19:05 GMT

In November, Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Lexington processing plant on Jan. 20. The announcement shocked the beef industry and specifically the town of Lexington, Neb.

A University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) analysis estimates the annual statewide economic impact of the closure will be $3.28 billion.

The beef plant, which opened in 1990, was one of the largest in the nation. According to UNL the plant employs approximately 3,200 team members and has the capacity to slaughter 5,000 cattle per day, which equates to about 4.8% of total daily U.S. beef slaughter.

Read more:
What Does Tyson’s Announcement Mean to Beef Producers?

Sources told Farm Journal late last week, Tyson has not scheduled any shifts at the Lexington facility the week of Jan. 16.

Expected Economic Impact

The closure of the beef plant will be one of the biggest shocks in history for the small town Lexington, which is home to about 11,000 people. However, the ripple effect will be felt throughout the Nebraska economy.

According to the UNL analysis, total labor income losses from the closure are projected to be $530.43 million per year across 7,003 jobs. Of those, 3,212 are positions directly eliminated at the plant, with the remainder representing additional jobs that support the workers in other sectors

UNL expects a substantial reduction of tax revenues in the aftermath of the closure. Annual losses in state personal income tax revenue are estimated at $23.2 million. State sales tax revenues are projected to decline by $10.16 million per year, and local sales tax revenues accruing to Dawson County are expected to fall by $2.77 million per year.

Conducting the analysis was Eric Thompson, UNL economics professor, and Elliott Dennis, UNL associate professor livestock marketing and risk management.

“These impacts would be larger if a greater share of cattle processed at the plant were purchased from Nebraska feedlots or if cattle accounted for a larger proportion of total plant costs,” they explain. “Conversely, the estimated impact would be smaller if the total value of beef sold were lower. Tax rates are based on historical tax data and may vary from year to year depending on employee deductions and other factors.”

Brazil Surpassing U.S. As Top Beef Producer, Easing Global Supply Squeeze

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 16:01:53 GMT

Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer last year, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices.

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4% for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7% drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, Rising Carcass Weight Drive Output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9% to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28% of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22% in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

A drone image shows cattle entering a feedlot at CMA Farm in Barretos, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

(Joel Silva/Reuters)

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate - the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season - to rise to 54% in 2027 from an expected 50% in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90% proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40%.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66%, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96%, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just 4% between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24%, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5% and cattle numbers will grow 5% over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil Key As Top Producers Scale Down

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4% - the biggest annual drop in decades - after rising 0.4% in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2%.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano in Barretos and Peter Hobson in Canberra; Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio)

As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 20:49:10 GMT

A newly confirmed case of New World screwworm (NWS) in northern Mexico is renewing concern among U.S. cattle producers and policymakers, as the parasitic fly continues to inch closer to the U.S.-Mexico border.

As reported by Drovers, on Dec. 27, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) reported a case of NWS in a 6-day-old calf with an umbilical lesion in the municipality of Llera, located in the state of Tamaulipas. The location is approximately 197 miles south of the U.S.-Mexico border, and a reminder that NWS is still a high threat to the U.S.

Critical Timing with Calving Season Approaching

NWS, which was eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s through an extensive sterile fly program, poses a serious threat to livestock. The larvae infest open wounds, feeding on living tissue and often leading to severe injury or death if untreated. Calving season is considered a particularly vulnerable period due to natural points of entry such as navels and birthing injuries.

Seth Meyer, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) and former chief economist for USDA, says the new case raises a tremendous amount of concern as USDA remains vigilant on keeping NWS out of the U.S. But Meyer says the growing proximity of NWS complicates already difficult decisions for cattle producers at calving season , which is a critical time of the year.

“There are concerns not just from a consumer standpoint, but also about whether southern producers are willing to retain heifers during calving season if there’s a risk of fly exposure,” he says. “Calving is a point of access for these animals, and that risk matters.”

Those decisions could have longer-term implications for herd expansion and cattle supplies, Meyer notes. If producers decide the risk is too great and opt against retaining replacement heifers, it could tighten supplies further down the road.

“That’s the last thing you want,” Meyer says. “You don’t want people giving up on retaining heifers and turning away from herd rebuilding.”

The Possibility of Reopening the Southern Border

The U.S. most recently closed its southern border to Mexican cattle imports in May of 2025 due to the rapid spread of NWS in Mexico. There were additional closures and reopenings in July 2025 as the situation evolved ultimately halting trade again to protect U.S. livestock.

Here’s a timeline so far:

November 2024: NWS was first detected in southern Mexico, leading to initial border closures and trade disruptions.
Feb. 1, 2025: A temporary ban was lifted after agreements for inspections.
May 11, 2025: U.S Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins ordered an immediate suspension of imports due to NWS spreading closer to the border.
July 2025: A phased reopening began but was halted again after new NWS cases were found farther north, leading to another immediate closure of southern ports to protect American livestock.

Considering the cattle just south of the border are being vigilantly monitored and inspected, the bigger threat of NWS crossing the Southern border could be through wildlife . Still, as NWS gets closer, USDA is keeping the border closed and remaining cautious.

When could the U.S. reopen the border? That’s exactly what Farm Journal asked economists in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor and the responses were extremely mixed. It’s important to note the survey was sent out prior to the most recent detection of NWS.

33% of economists say USDA could reopen the border in February 2026
25% say it could happen April through June
17% think the border could reopen July through September
And 17% were unsure.

For policymakers, the situation adds another layer of complexity as they balance animal health, trade and producer confidence. While officials stress that there is no immediate threat to the U.S. herd, the latest detection underscores the importance of surveillance, rapid response and continued cooperation between U.S. and Mexican animal health authorities.

As Meyer puts it: “There are a lot of balls in the air right now,” and preventing NWS from crossing the border remains a critical priority for the livestock industry on both sides.

Follow Farm Journal’s extensive coverage of the ongoing NWS situation.

Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What's Next in 2026?

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 17:33:42 GMT

The long-feared rightsizing of shackle spaces to more closely match the number of cattle has begun.

“The market’s reaction to the November announcement was a good reminder that market volatility still exists even when the supply and demand fundamentals continue to be positive forces into the start of 2026,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, in his Q1 2026 Outlook .

In late November, Tyson Foods announced its plan to end operations at its Lexington, Neb., beef facility and convert its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility to a single, full-capacity shift.

“Terrain estimates the changes will eventually reduce U.S. slaughter capacity by about 6.6%,” Weaber explains. “However, slaughter plant capacity utilization is still nearly 6% behind historical norms, as the number of cattle is still well short of filling available slaughter capacity.”

Weaber predicts this positive shift in operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and better compete for the available cattle.

“I expect utilization to decline by about 2% during 2026 when two new plants in Nebraska and Missouri complete their startups,” he adds.

A proposed plant in the Panhandle of Texas that would handle 6,000 head per day has the potential to lower utilization rates back to early-2025 levels if completed.

“Even without additional future slaughter capacity, utilization rates will remain low; fed cattle numbers are expected to decline during the next two to three years because of cow-calf producers’ beef cow herd expansion efforts,” Weaber summarizes.

The reduction in current fed slaughter capacity will help the remaining plants run more volume, improving efficiency by spreading fixed and semi-variable costs across more head and pounds of beef. This positive shift in operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and better compete for the available cattle.

“I expect that in the near and intermediate term, this effect will at least partially offset the shift in market leverage, which currently favors the packer,” Weaber says.

Markets and Beef Prices Remain Resilient

Beyond the near-term impacts to futures traders’ sentiment, the market impacts of the announced closures are fading.

“Calf, feeder cattle and fed cattle cash markets are already recovering and have posted significant rallies,” Weaber says. “Fed cattle supplies for the first half of 2026 are not going to change. The number of cattle placed into feed yards is the number placed and will be the number that gets slaughtered. The location the cattle get processed into beef may change, but overall beef production is mostly set.”

(USDA NASS, Terrain)

He adds: “ Consumer beef demand and spending remain strong and supportive of cattle prices. Presidential and executive branch rhetoric about lowering beef prices has had little to no impact on retail and wholesale beef prices. Tariff reductions on imported lean trimmings from South America are driving volumes, but prices for contracted loads delivering in the first quarter of 2026 are record high, up 20% from a year earlier.”

“I expect the choice cutout to average between $375 per cwt and $385 per cwt and fed cattle prices to average between $234 per cwt and $238 per cwt in Q1.”

— Dave Weaber

Q1 2026 Price Outlook

“I expect available fed cattle supplies during the first quarter of 2026 to be 6% to 7% smaller than the year prior,” Weaber says. “Even with a 2% shift in leverage (fed cattle price to comprehensive cutout) to the packers’ favor, I expect the Choice cutout to average between $375 per cwt and $385 per cwt and fed cattle prices to average between $234 per cwt and $238 per cwt in Q1.”

By early December, light feeder cattle and calf auction prices have recovered much of the losses incurred since late October and appear poised to start 2026 at record levels.

“Changes to the U.S.-Mexico border status remain the greatest known risk for cattle prices,” Weaber stresses.

Further rallies in deferred live cattle futures will drive the balance of the recovery in prices for heavy feeder cattle that make up the CME feeder cattle price index. He explains demand for light cattle to be turned out on wheat pasture and California coastal range has been a key driver for the rally in light cattle.

Biggest Risk Is South of the Border

Changes to the U.S.-Mexico border status remain the greatest known risk for cattle prices.

“The Mexican government has implemented broad cattle movement and import restrictions within the country as well as greater fly control measures in partnership with the USDA,” Weaber says. “Meanwhile, U.S. and Mexican officials have begun inspections of only one border crossing into New Mexico. Additional cases of New World screwworm have been found in Mexico, which I expect to further delay the reopening.”

Active risk management to preserve operation equity should remain a priority.

“If the border were to reopen, cash feeder cattle and calf prices and feeder cattle and live cattle futures would be the first to move down,” Weaber explains. “The magnitude of the impact will depend on the rate-limiting and cost impacts of the protocols that are implemented and the number of backlogged cattle south of the border.”

One Lesson From Plant Closures

“If we’ve learned anything from the market reactions to the plant announcements, it’s that price volatility should be a focus for producers in all segments of the cattle industry,” Weaber says. “Active risk management to preserve operation equity should remain a priority.”

Your Next Reads:
Navigate Market Volatility with Risk Management Strategies

Beef’s Future: Consumer Demand, Risk Management and the Path to Continued Profitability

Buffalo Bills Beefing Up: QB Josh Allen's Hearty Gift to His Protectors

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 16:55:30 GMT

This Christmas, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen delivered a gift that’s sure to keep his offensive line well fueled: a generous supply of protein-packed beef.

While social media feeds overflow with holiday gift boasts, Allen’s substantial and thoughtful present for his protectors stands out.

Josh Allen and Hailee Steinfeld Gifted His Offensive Lineman a 'Quarter of a Cow' for the Holidays https://t.co/gF56mJ2Xyg
— People (@people) December 22, 2025

According to People magazine , Allen and his wife, Hailee Steinfeld, gifted his O-line a quarter of beef. Considering the Bills’ “everybody eats” mantra on offense, it seems like the perfect present as the team prepares for the playoffs.

@alyshamonet_ Alec’s Oline gift this year from our qb1!! Always so thoughtful & we couldn’t be more grateful! 🫶🏽#nfl #holidays #lovelanguage #healthandwellness #bills ♬ original sound - Alysha Monet S. Anderson

Alysha Monet, wife of Bills offensive tackle Alec Anderson, shared a TikTok video discussing the gift, captioned: “Alec’s Oline gift this year from our QB1!! Always so thoughtful & we couldn’t be more grateful!”

In the video, Monet picks up each item in the bag to show her followers the different cuts of meat Allen gifted them.

Showing four shopping bags, Anderson helps her narrate. “I feel like this is something we’ve always wanted to get for ourselves,” she says. “We actually had to go and buy a deep freezer from the store right now just to put all this meat in, but we’re so grateful to Hailee and Josh. They are the sweetest people ever and this is such a good, functional gift.”

Quarterbacks giving gifts to the players who protect them most is nothing new. In addition to the quarter of beef, Allen and Steinfeld gave each lineman a Schwank Infrared Grill.

Reports reveal Allen and other quarterbacks spare no expense for their linemen this time of year. Previous presents from Allen in the past include custom Bills scooters, Callaway golf clubs, along with private golf lessons and a Traeger smoker grill.

Wolves Are Not Going Away: Ranchers Push for Practical Management Tools

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 15:08:47 GMT

Ranchers repeatedly stress they are not advocating extermination of the wolves, but workable management solutions.

“We’re trying to be conservationists,” says Luke Morgan, Lightning Bolt Cattle Co. general manager. “Wolves are here to stay. We’ve got to have some tools to make it more holistic for people, wolves and the rest of the animals.”

Morgan manages 2,500 mother cows on multiple locations in Oregon and Washington utilizing both public and private lands. He says the split listing of wolves in Oregon is frustrating: “A line down the middle … federally listed on one side and not on the other … makes zero sense.”

Read more about the challenges rancher are facing with wolves:
Nightly Battles and Big Losses: Ranchers Demand Reform as Wolves Continue to Wreak Havoc

Rick Roberti, California Cattlemen’s Association president and a cattle rancher in Sierra Valley, adds: “We don’t want to get rid of all the wolves. We just want them managed in a way we don’t suffer so many losses — for them to return to their natural habitat.”

Cattle producer Amy Anderson Fitzpatrick says her family has been dealing with wolves since 2011. Her family raises cattle in southern Oregon during the grazing season (May to December), then move the herd to winter in Northern California. The base ranch, called Rancheria Ranch, is in the mountains of Oregon and is a mix of owned land and permitted grazing.

Fitzpatrick explains state and federal laws severely limit ranchers’ ability to defend their livestock; only nonlethal hazing is allowed, and requests to remove or euthanize problematic wolves have been denied.

Here are two requests from the producers dealing with wolves:

1. Coexistence management tools.

This would allow flexible, rapid deployment of nonlethal and, when needed, targeted lethal tools to address habituated wolves near people and livestock.

“They have zero fear of humans,” Morgan says. “If we could instill a little fear, push them back into wilderness areas and keep them more of a wild animal.”

He suggests seasonal, expedited permits and field-response teams during calving; prioritize high-risk allotments and pastures.

Fitzpatrick adds: “Our wolves are not scared of us, because why should they be?”

2. Notification and data transparency for risk management.

Roberti requests for more notification and data sharing regarding wolves. He says with collared wolves, agencies can tell ranchers when wolves enter their property, but he says: “We’ve been getting the reports after the kill.”

He would also like to know how many wolves there are and would like to see a deer survey done.

“If there’s not enough prey, you’re pretty much saying they’re going to eat cattle,” Roberti says.

Fitzpatrick expresses frustration with public perception and how the pro-wolf sentiment on social media downplays or ignores ranchers’ struggles with the predators.

Despite the ongoing hardships, Fitzpatrick says her family remains committed to ranching while calling for a level playing field that would allow effective protection of their livelihood.

Paul Roen, a Sierra County rancher, adds unified, more flexible regulations and continued collaboration between local, state and federal agencies is needed. He advocates for policy reform, increased documentation and knowledge-sharing to better equip rural communities to manage the realities of coexisting with wolves.

Roberti summarizes that sensible management policies will allow both wolves and ranchers to coexist, but he stresses that unless balance is restored and ranchers’ voices are heard, both the rural way of life and broader ecosystem could face severe consequences.

Your Next Read: Nightly Battles and Big Losses: Ranchers Demand Reform as Wolves Continue to Wreak Havoc

Nightly Battles and Big Losses: Ranchers Demand Reform as Wolves Continue to Wreak Havoc

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 18:42:52 GMT

It’s hard to fathom: 92 confirmed or probable kills of cattle by three wolves during one season (April to October 2025) in the Sierra Valley. For ranchers, it’s more than economical loss — the emotional toll of dealing with wolves targeting their livestock and livelihoods is real.

Reintroduction and management of wolves in Sierra County, Calif., has led to significant challenges. The community, led by officials such as Paul Roen, has been actively pushing for updated management protocols, enhanced deterrence measures and better support from state and federal agencies to address the escalating wolf-livestock conflict.

Roen, a Sierra County supervisor (similar to a county commissioner) and rancher, explains it’s more than a livestock issue; it is a human safety issue.

“These wolves were not bothered by humans whatsoever. I mean, they were not acting like wild animals at all,” he says in reference to the wolves killing cattle earlier this year.

Rick Roberti, California Cattlemen’s Association president and a cattle rancher in Sierra Valley, adds: “For every confirmed kill you find, there’s probably four to six others. The wolves had gotten so used to eating cattle they didn’t hardly even look at a deer if they could find one.”

Roen and Roberti both stress the wolves have no fear of humans, with frequent sightings near homes and barns.

The severity of the attacks led Roen and other local officials to declare a state of emergency, drawing statewide and media attention. Despite the efforts of ranchers and local authorities — including constant night patrols, protective measures and deployment of technology like drones — wolf predation persisted. The community also engaged with state and federal resources, including a Strike Force sent by California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) to document the losses and explore possible intervention .

The program, designed to prevent livestock attacks on ranching properties in the heavily impacted Sierra Valley, deployed more than 18,000 staff hours across 114 days, engaging in 95 hazing events that helped to prevent an even greater loss in cattle deaths.

Eighteen Sierra Valley ranches enrolled in the program. CDFW staff also assisted ranches in evaluating the use of wolf-deterring fladry and ensuring livestock carcasses are correctly disposed to avoid attracting scavenging wolves. Additionally, the program helped facilitate depredation investigations, enabling ranchers to access compensation through CDFW’s Wolf-Livestock Compensation Program .

Following the unprecedented level of livestock attacks across the Sierra Valley, CDFW, in coordination with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), took the step of lethally removing four gray wolves from the Beyem Seyo pack.

“This action follows months of intensive non-lethal management efforts to reduce livestock loss and is grounded in the best available science and understanding of wolf biology,” according to the press release.

Roen says progress dealing with the wolf issue came with federal involvement and local law enforcement support. He says when the sheriff got involved , people woke up in Sacramento.

Read more about how sheriff departments from seven California counties united to oppose environmental polices they believe threaten ranchers and farmers.

Not Just California

The gray wolf is on the federal endangered species list except in the Northern Rocky Mountain region of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, the eastern one-third of Oregon, Washington and north-central Utah. In Minnesota, the gray wolf is considered threatened. Because of these protections, killing a wolf in the states where it’s protected is illegal, even if it’s seen killing livestock.

Luke Morgan, Lightning Bolt Cattle Company general manager, has been dealing with wolves since 2011 when they first came to Oregon. Morgan manages 2,500 mother cows on multiple locations in Oregon and Washington using both public and private lands.

A pack of wolves that live on one of the Lightning Bolt ranches in western Oregon have been causing havoc the past couple years. According to Morgan, the wolves killed more than 25 head of livestock from mid-October to mid-November.

He says the wolves prey the weak-minded: “Whatever can’t take the pressure … the ones that will break and run.”

(CDFW)

Cattle producer Amy Anderson Fitzpatrick says her family has also been dealing with wolves since 2011. They raise cattle in southern Oregon during the grazing season (May to December), then move the herd to winter in Northern California. The base ranch, called Rancheria Ranch, is in the mountains of Oregon and is a mix of owned land and permitted grazing. The operation includes commercial cow herd plus some yearlings.

Since 2019, Fitzpatrick says at least 24 cattle deaths have been attributed to wolves, though actual losses are likely higher due to unconfirmed cases in the rugged terrain.

“I have learned far more about wolves and their behavior than I could ever imagine. Wolves kill for food, yes, but they also kill to hone their skills, teach their young and for fun. We have witnessed wolves literally bumping livestock bedded down to get them up and running to chase them,” Fitzpatrick says. “We’ve been dealing with it for about 14 years. … The earlier pack, the Rogue Pack, would hit Fort Klamath hard in the summer months when there was an abundance of yearling cattle, then in the fall they’d come over the hill to Rancheria and hit us. Now we deal with what is known as this Grouse Ridge Pack, which seems to just like to hang out at the ranch and hit our permit country in the summertime.”

Fitzpatrick says they previously anticipated up to five losses per year from cattle turned out on the range as a cost of doing business. With the increase in wolf population, the ranch tallied between 35 and 40 mostly weaned calves during the 2024 season.

The Rogue Pack would kill livestock as sport and not consume the animals. However, the current, larger pack tends to consume more carcasses, further complicating verification.

In Wisconsin over the past 12 months, wolf attacks on livestock have increased. According to the state’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR), there have been 62 livestock depredation incidents in 2025 — 45 killed and 17 confirmed harassments — all of which are either livestock or pets. That’s nearly double the number of incidents reported just three years ago.

According to the Wisconsin Farm Bureau : “Wisconsin’s wolf population has rebounded from extinction to an undeniable conservation success. But lately, it feels more like a horror story than a success story.”

Read more about how ranchers say they are willing to deal with wolves if they will return to their natural habitat:
Wolves Are Not Going Away: Ranchers Push for Practical Management Tools

(Paul Roen)

Financial Loss is Real

Herd-level effects beyond death loss include lower conception rates, 50 lb. to 75 lb. weaning weight declines and cow herd fear. Wolves have changed cattle behavior significantly.

Fitzpatrick says the presence of wolves has caused observable stress and aggression in the cattle, leading to behavioral changes, abortions and decreased weaning weights.

“Wolves actively harass resting cattle, preventing them from relaxing or thriving,” she says.

Morgan says herd experience more vulnerability during calving season. He points out calves and protective dams are high-risk with wolf attacks leading to increasing accidental calf deaths and stress-related herd disruptions.

Research by Tina Saitone, a University of California-Davis professor and cooperative Extension specialist in livestock and rangeland economics, found one wolf can cause up to $162,000 in annual financial loss .

Compensation is Available But Falls Short

Compensation frameworks exist but often lack speed and scope and require confirmations that are often unfeasible. Morgan says there’s not even close to enough funds in the pool to cover all the losses.

“There is money appropriated in California, but we’re just having a hard time getting it,” Roberti adds. “Most have been waiting since April.”

All four producers say depredations are significantly undercounted compared with real losses due to terrain, investigation lags and evidence requirements. A shared frustration is the fact if an animal is nearly completely consumed, the investigators can’t find the evidence it was a wolf attack and thus, it does not count as a wolf depredation.

Emotional Toll is Substantial

For cattle producers impacted by wolves, it’s more than the financial toll; it’s the human factor, the stress incurred.

“Financial-wise, it’s huge. It’s astronomical, if you really dig into it, but the mental capacity it takes from us and the people who work for us is huge,” Morgan says. “The emotional toll we have to go through just watching and observing cattle, and we spend every day we possibly can trying to keep these animals alive.

“There’s nothing pretty about the way [wolves] kill animals,” he continues. “For us to go out and find them or have to deal with that, it’s huge emotionally.”

Fitzpatrick explains the losses due to wolves have deeply affected her dad.

“My dad is 81 years old, and I have never seen him so depressed,” she explains. “He’s not the same; he’s lost the fight. It’s like we’ve lost. How do you put a price tag on that?”

Dealing with wolves it is a safety issue as well, Roberti adds. As producers stay up all night checking on and protecting their cattle. Fitzpatrick agrees, summarizing the stressful steps she takes to check cattle, noting she now avoids certain tasks due to the increased risks to herself and her dogs.

Documenting the events in Sierra County, Roen says he hopes their experiences can be used as a road map for others. He plans to share plans, forms and training materials with ranchers facing similar threats.

“We created different plans and trainings we will allow everybody to plagiarize,” he says.

Your Next Read:
Wolves Are Not Going Away: Ranchers Push for Practical Management Tools

The Cost of Coexistence With Wolves

Profit Meets Purpose: A Rancher's Guide to Sustainable Success

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 15:43:31 GMT

Grazing the best and leaving the rest for the benefit of soil health — this is the philosophy of the Pribbeno family, who has been ranching in the Nebraska Sandhills for 140 years. The cow-calf, stocker and grain operation thrives in western Nebraska near the Colorado border despite the arid climate and fragile sandy soil.

At any given point, 95% of the Wine Glass Ranch land is resting. This practice has increased plant diversity and the return of native grasses.

Jeff and Connie Pribbeno and their son and daughter-in-law, Logan and Brianna, own and operate Wine Glass Ranch near Imperial, Neb. The ranch is an example of how innovative agricultural practices can simultaneously improve ecological health, animal welfare and financial sustainability.

They let cattle do the work of harvesting. With limited water resources and challenging weather, it is even more important to protect and preserve the land growing the crops and feeding the cattle.

(NCBA Environmental Stewardship Award Program)

Ranch Transitions

Spanning generations, the ranch has transformed to a sophisticated business that challenges conventional ranching wisdom.

In 1888, Sherman McCoy, Logan’s great-great-grandfather, left Iowa by train and walked 30 miles from the westernmost stop in Elsie, Neb., to what is now the ranch. Once McCoy arrived at his destination, he filed for a homestead while Nebraska was still part of the frontier and established Lonestar Ranch.

Through good stewardship and thrifty living, the operation grew to almost 8,000 acres under his care. Following the McCoys, Lone Star Ranch was owned by their son-in-law and daughter, A.O. and Mary Stenger. The Stengers raised their only daughter, Babette, on the land, who registered the wine glass brand.

Babette and her husband, Bill Pribbeno, were the next generation to own the ranch. They passed it to their son and daughter-in-law, Jeff and Connie, who changed its name to Wine Glass Ranch to match the brand. In 2012, the fifth generation — Logan and Brianna — assumed management duties of the Wine Glass Ranch.

Read more about Logan and his philosophy managing Wine Glass Ranch:
I’m a Drover: An Innovator Redefining Ranching

(Photo: NCBA Environmental Stewardship Award Program)

For the first 100 years of the ranch, cattle were left to fend for themselves year-round on the native range, much like any other ranch or farm on the Great Plains. Cattle often traveled four to five miles between windmills to get a drink, and thus the areas around the mills were over grazed while other areas remained practically untouched.

The fourth generation became the first generation of conservationists. Jeff and Connie began the operation’s environmental stewardship journey in 1976 when Jeff pioneered no-till-eco-fallow in the area to add production by converting to three and four-year crop rotations and preventing wind erosion.

(Photo: NCBA Environmental Stewardship Award Program)

Cattle and Grazing

“We try to keep it pretty simple, and we try to make the cows survive on their own,” Jeff explains.

The Pribbeno family uses a 365-day grazing system without traditional hay feeding.

“We do not own a feed wagon and we do not feed any hay,” Logan explains.

Jeff devoted significant time, money and training to improving range management. This involved building extensive cross-fencing and adding multiple water sources, which allowed them to run more cattle on the same pasture while maintaining land health. The ranch’s management approach is hands-on, with daily monitoring of cattle and pastures throughout the entire year.

The cattle herd has been carefully developed, with Jeff’s breeding strategy to create “an easy keeping cow that can thrive in a non-selective, rotational grazing system.” This approach focuses on low-milk, low frame score cattle specifically adapted to their challenging environment.

One of the ranch’s most significant strategies is its extensive rotational grazing system. The Pribbeno family has installed “200 miles of fence, creating 90 paddocks.” Cattle typically stay in a 300-acre paddock for five to seven days, allowing for significant grass regeneration.

“I want that pasture to look like it looked 1,000 years ago before man showed up,” Jeff says.

ESAP Photography

(NCBA Environmental Stewardship Award Program)

Cover Crops

Cover crops play a crucial role in the ranch’s sustainability strategy. Logan describes their approach as unique, growing warm season mixes that can reach “14' tall and dense, like a jungle.”

They incorporate diverse crops like sorghum, pearl millet, brassicas and soybeans, then graze cattle through the field, leaving behind natural fertilization.

Logan explains he treats covers crops like a silage crop. He harvests approximately 25% of the crop’s weight and leaves remaining crop as natural fertilizer and ground cover.

The cover crop strategy reduces input costs, minimizes herbicide use and improves soil health.

This approach is displayed in innovative practices like precise input management. During a challenging year, he reduced nitrogen application on corn to just 20 lb., achieving remarkable yield efficiency.

“We need to cut inputs,” he explains. “There’s a fine line between deficient and efficient.”

(Wine Glass Ranch)

Wildlife Haven

The ranch has become a wildlife haven, with one survey documenting 80 bird species in just 48 hours. By creating prairie strips, protecting wetlands and implementing strategic habitat management, Logan says agricultural production and ecological preservation can coexist.

“We took the worst part of the farm and focused it on habitat,” he explains.

The ranch prioritizes habitat preservation, with Jeff planting more than 10,000 trees and shelter belts. They’ve created prairie strips around wetland areas and participate in state walk-in hunting programs.

Partnerships are crucial to the Pribbenos’ management model. Father and son both work closely with NRCS and FSA, viewing these relationships as strategic opportunities for innovation that have been crucial in implementing sustainable practices.

“Whenever we have something going on, we’ll call the NRCS office and say, ‘Hey, we’re thinking about this. How can you help?’” Logan explains.

Covers crops are treated like a silage crop at Wine Glass. They harvests approximately 25% of the crop’s weight and leave remaining crop as natural fertilizer and ground cover.

(Wine Glass Ranch)

Focus on Sustainability

By integrating advanced grazing techniques, strategic crop management and a long-term perspective, the Pribbenos are writing the next chapter in their family’s agricultural legacy.

“Sustainable means that if we can continue what we’re doing today, in 1,000 years, the land will look the same,” Jeff says.

Logan agrees, sharing his philosophy of leaving the land better for future generations and explaining “sustainability tends to be more profitable in the long run.”

Recognized for their focus on the environment and sustainability, the ranch was awarded the prestigious Nebraska Leopold Conservation Award in 2022. In 2025, the family was recognized as the 2025 region VII winner of the Environmental Stewardship Award Program (ESAP) .

“Wine Glass Ranch believes we cannot carry out our tradition of producing world-class beef without approaching sustainability with an open mind,” says Steve Hanson, owner of Hanson Family Farms & Sillassen Ranch. “The Pribbenos’ successful rotational grazing and no-till-eco-fallow practices prove our industry can uphold traditions while paving the way to an even stronger and more resilient future.”

Your Next Reads:
I’m a Drover: An Innovator Redefining Ranching
Sustainability Isn’t a Bad Word

Unexpected Blessings: How Regenerative Cattle Production Shaped One Family's Faith Journey

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 04:32:31 GMT

Dawn and Grant Breitkreutz’s journey into regenerative agriculture started nearly 25 years ago on their cattle and farming operation, Stoney Creek Farm, located near Redwood Falls, Minnesota. Their use of regenerative practices has lowered their costs and improved their profitability, but its also shaped their faith journey.

Regenerative Journey at Stoney Creek Started With Cattle
Grant Breitkreutz says their first leap of faith into regenerative farming started with their cow herd. “We were going for more grass, more grazing days, and we really didn’t even think about it being regenerative at that time.”

They transitioned to rotational grazing, plus utilization of crop residue and cover crops. So, their herd is grazing at least nine, but weather dependent, up to 11 months a year, which Grant says has lowered their feed costs. “If the cows can be out here doing it on their own and we can provide them cover crops and stalks and crop residues and let them feed themselves. It’s money in the bank.”

Thankful for Record Cattle Prices in 2025
While 2025 has offered cattle prices they never thought they’d see in their lifetime, Grant says these practices allowed them to be profitable when cattle prices were low. “The cattle operation on our farm has pulled us through the lows. To be honest the cattle operation is subsidizing the crop production right now,” he remarks.

So, they have a lot to be thankful for, especially as they can now use some of their profits to build for the future including some long overdue infrastructure upgrades, including new fences and additional water facilities. “Yeah, they pulled us through the bad times, but there was never enough profit there to spend money on machinery. I mean, you did what you had to do. You bought feed wagons, you bought loaders, you did that kind of thing. Now we can actually take the profits from these cattle and really do some stuff that we should have been doing all along.”

Cattle Help Improve Soil Health
The cattle are also helping them improve the soil health on their farm says Grant. “We firmly believe that a cow can speed up the rebuilding of biology and a soil by about two years.” And the cattle are part of their regenerative cropping system.

Dawn describes the breadth of their regenerative operation, which follows the basic soil health principles. “We are a hundred percent no till operation so that we promote the biology and the soil. Adding diversity back into it in seed and in cows and livestock and all that sort of thing is bringing that health back.,” she says.

Cutting Costs
As a result they’ve been able to cut fertilizer and pesticide cost, which is a tall order as Stoney Creek farm is located in central Minnesota and the heart of row crop country. Grant says, “I’d say we’re saving about $140 to $160 an acre on, say, for example, a corn crop. We’ve figured out how to spoon feed the crop.”

Getting Back to Mother Nature
Dawn says another goal was to raise cattle and crops the way Mother Nature intended. “So, our soil health is vital to our livestock, to the crops that we grow, to the food that we grow, and to the humans that we’re growing.”

And she says that has led to their own branded products. “We’re selling chickens and eggs and beef and pork.
All of our stock that we finish or feed on our farm are raised on grains that are only produced here on our land.”

Regenerative Farming Shaped Faith Journey
However, their regenerative farming journey also provided an unexpected blessing as it made the Breitkreutz’s more aware of their spiritual connection to Mother Nature and the land.

Dawn says she never realized how much the Bible has to do with farming. “But you can’t be out here and pay attention to all the details and all the complications and chaos that’s in perfect harmony and not believe in a higher power that put this all together.”

On the office wall of Stoney Creek Farm are several bible verses and Dawn’s favorite is listed at the top. “I think I have three boards now that have Bible verses on them that, you know, they seem to appear at just the right time. And I’ll stop what I’m doing and I’ll find a place on the board to add to it.”

So on Thanksgiving and every day she says they feel blessed to be able to farm the way nature intended. “I’m just thankful for the opportunity to be able to take care of God’s creation.” And to bring their kids back into the operation to keep that legacy alive.

What Does Tyson's Announcement Mean to Beef Producers?

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 23:32:27 GMT

Chaos in the cattle market continues as Tyson Foods announced on Friday its plan to end operations at its Lexington, Neb., beef facility and convert its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility to a single, full-capacity shift. The cattle complex was limit down Monday reacting to the announcement.

The Lexington plant employs nearly 3,200 people and can harvest 4,500 cattle a day, but has been running 3,600 to 3,700 according to John Nalivka of Sterling Marketing. It is one of 11 beef facilities in the company and one of the largest. The transition in Amarillo is expected to reduce daily harvest numbers from 5,500 to 2,700 to 2,800 and impact 1,700 workers. Tyson says the changes will go into effect on Jan. 20, 2026.

Jeff Stolle, Nebraska Cattlemen’s Association director of marketing, predicts the Lexington plant closure will reduce Nebraska cattle harvest capacity by 15%.

“The Tyson plant in Lexington has been a very valuable and consistent piece of our packer processor infrastructure in the state for up against 35 years now, and to lose this amount of harvest capacity on a daily basis is definitely going to be a challenge,” Stolle says.

The announcement is a shock as Stolle says there are significant feedyard expansion projects in the works, and he hopes there’s a future opportunity to bring the Lexington facility online with different ownership.

“Given the feeding infrastructure that is located near the Lexington plant, and the availability of high-quality feeder cattle and feedstuffs, we obviously hope there is some sort of path toward the plant continuing to operate as a harvest facility,” Stolle summarizes.

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, explains the announcement comes following a rough year for the meatpacking industry and admits a plant closing has been a possibility for the last 18 months.

“Fed beef packers have been losing an average of $200 per head,” he says. “Those margins have certainly improved over the last two or three weeks, but it has been a tough year, and I don’t know that we’re near the end of this yet.”

Tyson’s announcement says it is shifting production to other plants to increase efficiency. But why close Lexington?

Elliott Dennis, University of Nebraska-Lincoln livestock and meat economist, predicts Tyson targeted its least efficient plant for closure to maximize profitability across its operations, highlighting the importance of operational efficiency in the beef industry.

Other analysts speculate competition from the new Sustainable Beef Plant in North Platte might have played a role.

According to Trey Wasserburger, Sustainable Beef is currently harvesting 1,100 head per day but plans to ramp up to 1,500 by Jan. 1.

Overcapacity Issue

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, says the Tyson announcement reduces capacity in the industry but does not solve the problem of overcapacity.

“This will reduce industry slaughter capacity by roughly 7,000 to 8,000 head per day,” he explains. “The exact impact will depend on forthcoming details, especially how Tyson will manage a one-shift plant. Depending on the details, the reduction represents roughly 7.5 to 9% of total industry slaughter capacity.”

Peel says Monday to Friday daily fed slaughter thus far in 2025 has averaged 90,529 head per day, down 3.6% from the recent peak (93,931 head per day) in 2022. However, Saturday slaughter has averaged 4,878 head this year, just 13.1% of the 37,137 head per day average in 2022.

For the first 45 weeks of the year, total weekly fed slaughter has averaged 457,524 head compared to 506,793 head per week in 2022, a decrease of 9.7%. The Tyson planned reduction in packing capacity might be nearly (but not quite) enough to balance the decrease in cattle slaughter since the peak in 2022. However, fed slaughter is expected to continue decreasing in 2026 and 2027.

“Excess packing capacity will continue to be an issue for beef packers for the foreseeable future,” Peel summarizes.

Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Lexington Plant Closure

Dennis says the Lexington plant closure will have immediate short-term effects on cattle prices. Drawing parallels to the 2019 Holcomb, Kan., plant fire, he predicts prices potentially falling and taking months to recover.

“Back in 2019, it took us about five to six weeks to find a bottom on the live cattle market,” Dennis says. “From the time we had that announcement of the fire, we ended up going about 12% down from where we were at pre-fire, and it took us almost three, three and a half months to get back to pre-fire prices.”

Dennis says the finished cattle will redistribute to other regional plants and the impact will be more about change in value proposition and logistics for producers than the ability to find a buyer.

Hyrum Egbert, meatpacking industry analyst, explains, “Tyson just changed the math on U.S. beef.”

He predicts the short-term impact will be:

Live cattle and feeders. Nearby futures and regional cash should soften, especially around Lexington/Amarillo as cattle lose a local bidder and get pushed farther to other plants. Expect weaker basis in those draw areas.
Beef cutout/wholesale. He says this is a rationing signal to beef buyers. Even if some volume is picked up elsewhere, the headline is tighter kill space which will lead to bullish cutout as buyers front-load coverage.
Packer margins. Less capacity chasing the same tight cattle supply will equate to better gross margins for packers.
Logistics and spreads Longer hauls for cattle will lead to higher freight, wider regional price dispersion and more noise in cash versus formula debates.

Long-term Egbert summarizes: “This isn’t a Saturday kill adjustment; it’s a permanent trim in hooks. Capacity is being pulled closer to the ‘new normal’ cattle supply, which reduces the odds of prolonged negative packer margins in the next phase of the cycle.”

Likewise, Dennis predicts long-term the closure will reduce cattle prices due to lower processing capacity and less competition. Yet despite disruptions, he says the fundamental demand for beef is historically high, driven by consumer preference and quality improvements, which should help support cattle prices in the long run.

“With tighter U.S. kill space on top of a small herd, imports — especially lean for grind — matter even more,” Egbert adds. “Tariffs, quotas and border policy will have an even stronger influence on spreads and retail prices. This is not likely going to be the last of plant closures. Regional plants are still extremely vulnerable and susceptible to closure.”

What’s Next for Producers and Packers

“I don’t think producers necessarily need to do anything different,” Peel says. “I still think there’s excess capacity in the industry, even with this downsizing, so there will be plenty of demand. I don’t think it changes anything. It doesn’t change the supply fundamentals at all.”

Close agrees with Egberts prediction that this might not be the last plant closure. He says Tyson’s announcement clears the path for other packers to follow suit.

“It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that we see another large plant or some of the smaller regional plants closed before we reach bottom in this cattle supply,” Close says.

Peel says with Tyson’s decision to reduce a shift and not close Amarillo is a positive.

“By only making a one shift adjustment in Amarillo, that tells me that decision was very much just directly a function of availability of cattle, but it also means they have the ability to go right back up to two shifts when the time gets right, as far as cattle availability,” Peel explains. “They just spent a lot of money in Amarillo remodeling and refurbishing that plant, so I don’t think they’re going to walk away from it completely, unless things continue to deteriorate for them in terms of their beef business.”

Dennis reminds producers the importance of managing price risk using available tools (like futures and options) because market volatility is unpredictable. He stresses risk management should be proactive, not reactive.

Close was a guest on AgriTalk Monday discussing the impact of the Tyson announcement as well as other beef industry economic factors today.

Your Next Read: CattleFax Predicts Profitability Despite Increased Uncertainty

CattleFax Predicts Profitability Despite Increased Uncertainty

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 20:15:24 GMT

The beef industry has experienced a year of “hybrid vigor” as cattle prices soared due to tight supplies and increasing consumer demand, summarizes CattleFax’s Kevin Good.

“The market has gotten a lot higher than any of us would have suggested as we started the year,” he says. “Now the market is anticipating some of those things that propelled the market to higher highs to come off. In other words, tariffs being reduced as well as the Mexican border reopening.”

Forecasting strong prices into 2026, the next market phase will be shaped by herd rebuilding and shifting global trade, Good adds. The volatility and political noise will continue, but the fundamentals will still matter.

(CattleFax)

Here are five key takeaways from Good’s presentation at the recent Kansas Livestock Association Convention:

1. The markets are experiencing significant volatility, largely influenced by noise in the media, tariffs and the Mexican border closure.

Good says regional market dynamics spotlight Kansas and the Midwest as more advantaged relative to Texas, for example, which faces tighter supplies and higher costs until the Mexican border reopens.

Market volatility is strongly influenced by psychology and external policy issues.

“Psychology can take the markets higher than they should otherwise, and they can take them lower than they should otherwise,” he explains.

2. The dairy industry’s role in the beef supply is growing.

“We are getting more beef out of the dairy industry than we ever have in the past,” Good says.

This is the largest dairy herd in about 25 years.
A bigger percentage of the dairy producers’ income is derived from beef — salvage cow value or day-old beef-on-dairy calves.
In 2025, 18% of the cattle harvested will be dairy or beef-on-dairy cross.
Slower culling: Dairy producers have transitioned from culling cows after their third lactation to their fourth lactation.
The export portion of dairy revenue has tripled in the last 25 years.

(CattleFax)

3. Strong consumer demand continues, but high prices pose risks.

Beef demand and evolving consumer preferences are shaping industry profitability. Consumer demand for high-quality protein remains strong, but there is concern about potential pushback if prices stay high. Good predicts retail prices may soften somewhat next year, but market fundamentals are still solid.

“If we just continue to focus on what’s paid us over the last 25 years as beef demand has improved — quality and consistency — it is as simple as that,” he says.

(CattleFax)

4. Future expansion remains tentative, hinging on weather and profitability.

“We liquidated for about six years, probably one to two years longer than the economics suggested because of drought,” Good says.

The outlook projects continued tight supply for the first half of next year and possibly lower prices in the second half, with gradual expansion expected to follow depending on weather and economic conditions.

5. The overall market outlook is healthy but shifting.

Good says packing capacity continues to favor cattle feeders for now, but labor challenges and changing market cycles could impact this leverage in the coming years.

“Big picture … we’re suggesting we’ve seen our cycle high. The trends changed. Fundamentals are still solid. Beef demand is great,” Good says.

“Generally speaking, I would say [there’s a] positive outlook looking at prices,” he says. “If we make the assumption the border reopens in the first half of next year, and at the same time tariffs are more normalized … average prices for next year will be a little bit lower. [2026] will be a tale of two halves — the first half will resemble the second half of this year and then you’ve got more risk as you go through the second half of next year.”

Good is optimistic for continued profitability for the cow-calf producer in 2026.

“Just think about the dollars in the system,” Good summarizes. “Our prices have gone up at least 2% on an annual basis, faster than inflation, for 25 years. Those are real dollars — real dollars that are now landing in your pocket no matter what segment of the business you’re in.”

Your next read: What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?

What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 20:00:36 GMT

While the core fundamentals of the beef industry remain unchanged, the overall environment has become much more volatile and uncertain in recent weeks.

Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe, in a recent interview on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria , predicts ground beef prices will reach $10 per pound by the third quarter of 2026.

In response to that prediction, ag economist Glynn Tonsor from Kansas State University reports, according to September Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the national average price for ground beef was $6.32 per pound. He explains while niche markets such as Omaha Steaks could see some products priced at $10, the national average is unlikely to reach that level within the next three years.

Tonsor emphasizes Omaha Steaks serves a distinct customer base, and their prices should not be generalized to represent all U.S. ground beef prices.

Lance Zimmerman, senior animal protein analyst with Rabo AgriFinance, adds: “It’s possible, but that’d be pretty wild. Is it probable? I would say no, based on history.”

He explains his stance also referring to the BLS historic data, although prices spiked radically during the pandemic posting the highest year-over-year increases on record, that event only resulted in a 34% jump, far short of the 54% increase needed to see $10 ground beef by the third quarter of 2026.

What Does All This Beef Chatter Cause?

The beef industry has found itself in national headlines since Sept. 15. The industry has been experiencing chaos in the markets since President Donald Trump made statements regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to investigate meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

“The base fundamentals of the industry have not changed in the last four weeks,” Tonsor says. “The volatility, the noise in the business environment, has definitely elevated.”

Read more about the industry chaos today:
Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Zimmerman explains while political sound bites and promises to lower food prices draw media attention, they do not directly affect the day-to-day decisions by producers who remain focused on long-term business fundamentals.

“At the end of the day, the average cow-calf producer, stocker operator and feedlot operator, have a business to run, and all of this noise doesn’t change much surrounding their day-to-day business,” Zimmerman summarizes. “The challenge is the president is making this a very regular soundbite, as is the rest of his administration. And, cyclically, there is no quick fix.”

Zimmerman shares his frustration regarding the broader impact of political statements, especially presidential promises to bring down food prices. He explains that, historically, the only way to significantly reduce food costs is to enter a recession. The catch, he argues, is that neither administration nor producers desire such an outcome. This underscores the conflict between policy rhetoric and on-the-ground market drivers.

Tonsor adds media attention and dramatic statements, such as $10 ground beef, often do not accurately represent broad market reality.

“I’m trying to use this as an excuse to educate on why prices are higher; [it’s] not just because cow numbers are down,” Tonsor explains. “When we just jump to the number of cows, we don’t give credit to the demand story that the public wants beef.”

Read more about beef demand:
Consumers Confirm Protein is In: Meat Continues to Have Its Moment on the Plate
How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

One question on the mind of producers and industry stakeholders is if the political and media attention will heighten consumer awareness to beef prices and cause a change in buying behavior.

Tonsor says, so far, there is little impact from these headlines on consumer demand.

“It’s too early to tell if there’s been a consumer demand impact from all the chatter,” he says. “My best guess is little-to-no direct impact.”

Both analysts agree beef prices are fueled by demand. Tonsor notes consumers are willing to pay the retail price of beef today because of their continued demand for taste and protein. He points out if public demand for beef stays strong, prices will remain robust.

“The public still thinks taste is the most important thing when they make a decision,” he summarizes.

Slowing Down Rebuilding

“This uncertainty has wrecked the market potential in Chicago in the short run,” Zimmerman explains. “But the timing of it also couldn’t be worse for the cow-calf producer who’s making those fall retention decisions right now.”

Both analysts agree the heightened uncertainty is making producers more hesitant to invest or expand their herds, which will lead to slower industry investment and herd growth.

Read more about herd rebuilding:
Rebuilding the U.S. Cow Herd: A Calculated Climb

“I think we’re going to slow investment compared to even a month ago, just because those that are anxious or don’t like uncertainty are a little more cautious today than they were a month ago,” Tonsor explains. “Those that are extra uncomfortable with elevated uncertainty, like not knowing what the trade environment might be, it’s going to give them pause. So, they will be less likely to hold back a heifer and expand. They’ll be less likely to modernize the feedyard. They’ll be less likely to do whatever that capital investment was.”

Will Tarriff Reduction Impact Prices?

Late last week, Trump signed an executive order that modifies the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2. The executive order now exempts several agricultural products from tariffs, including beef.

Zimmerman explains Brazil’s beef processors and beef exporters would have gained the most if the country’s additional tariffs were removed by the U.S. The previous rate was an additional 50% tariff on top of the 26.4% tariff that exists on all imports from countries without a free-trade agreement on beef after the first 65,005 MT each calendar year. However, the Brazil tariffs are structured under two separate practices. Ten percent are reciprocal tariffs, and the additional 40% that came in August are through another process.

“The latest removal of reciprocal tariffs on beef effectively changes Brazil’s country-specific import tax from 50% to 40%,” he explains. “This is not going to significantly change the competitive landscape for global exporters shipping into the U.S. market. It is still incredibly tough for Brazil to compete with Australia, New Zealand and other major lean beef importers in the U.S. market.”

Tonsor adds reducing tariffs could marginally lower beef prices for consumers, but the effect would not be dramatic. He points out the U.S. produces the majority of its own beef (more than 80%), so changes in import tariffs have a limited impact on domestic prices.

He says recent record import months only moved the import share from around 15% to slightly more than 20%. Tonsor expects the net effect of the tariff reduction on beef prices to be fairly small, potentially less than a 5%-to-10% change, and that overall, strong domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of prices.

Challenge to Producers

Tonsor says his advice to producers is to steady the ship.

He encourages a steady approach, suggesting those comfortable with uncertainty should move forward as planned, while others might pause on major decisions. Ultimately, he expects less herd expansion and more caution among producers, even as demand fundamentals continue to provide underlying strength for the industry.

Tonsor says while general industry investment and expansion might slow, producers who move forward despite the uncertainty could be rewarded, especially if fewer others do the same. His overall message is for producers to carefully weigh their risk tolerance and business needs before making significant changes and not to let the current noise distract from their long-term goals.

Despite recent market corrections, Zimmerman says strong demand and cyclical tightness mean profitability remains high for most producers. He shares these six strategies for producers to consider looking forward:

Consider Strategic Heifer Retention. He advises producers to begin or continue retaining heifers, even if only enough to replace natural attrition in the cow herd, as a step toward gradual herd rebuilding in tight supply conditions.
Use Price Protection Tools. He emphasizes the importance of locking in profit floors using risk management tools such as Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance , futures or options contracts, encouraging producers not to wait for the highest prices but to protect profitability when opportunities arise.
Maintain Long-Term Perspective. Despite recent market corrections, he urges producers to keep a long-term view; demand is strong, and rebuilding will be slow, so planning for sustained higher prices is key.
Stay Vigilant and Informed. He recommends producers remain watchful for profit opportunities in the market, be proactive in their strategic decisions and stay informed about both market trends and policy changes.
Be Cautious, Not Reactionary. He suggests not overreacting to political headlines or media narratives, emphasizing that day-to-day operational fundamentals should guide decisions rather than short-term noise.
Prepare for Continued Volatility. He encourages resilience and adaptation strategies as the industry faces persistent uncertainty from trade policy and disease threats such as New World screwworm .

Your Next Read: Did the Administration’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?