Daily Grain Market Fundamentals and Technicals

4 Weeks of Data

The USDA released their backlog of weekly export data yesterday, and it lacked the fireworks that some market participants may have been looking for. For the most part, it was all within the range of estimates.

Harvest

Yield estimates have been wide enough to drive a truck through this year, but with harvest starting to roll forward, the market may start to get more clarity on what's actually out there in terms of yield. In the very early stages, we have heard more "better than expected" than "worse than expected".

Drought

Reuters is reporting that wheat farmers in Argentina are abandoning wheat acres due to a prolonged drought that is said to be the driest conditions in 30 years for some areas. This has some concerned as they begin to plant their corn crop.

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Corn

December corn futures broke through our pivot pocket from 682-685, opening the door for a potential retracement to 3-star support, 665-667. We wouldn't be surprised to see this pocket hold on the first test, but if it does give way it could spur technical selling down to our next support pocket, 647 1/4-650 1/4.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 700**, 725 3/4-728 1/4****

Pivot: 682-685

Support: 665-667***, 647 1/4-650 1/4****

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Soybeans

November soybean futures have pulled back to and are lingering near our pivot pocket, 1446 1/4-1450 1/2. This pocket represents the 50% retracement from Monday's rally, along with the 100-day moving average. We would not be surprised to see this pocket hold today. With that said, there is risk of it eventually giving way, which could accelerate the selling down to our 4-star support pocket, 1404 1/2-1416 3/4.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Neutral

Resistance: 1500-1507 ¾***, 1529 3/4-1536 1/2****, 1556 3/4**

Pivot:1446 1/4-1450 1/2

Support: 1404 1/2--1416 3/4****

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Wheat

Chicago wheat futures are retreating to Friday's breakout point. We talked about this in yesterday's report. "We believe that the Bulls have the technical advantage so long as they can defend our support pocket from 839-849, this was previously resistance. As far as resistance goes, there's not a lot of significant resistance until you get above the psychologically significant $9.00 handle. 909-913 represents previously important price points and the 200-day moving average."

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance:909-913****

Pivot: 859 1/4-863 3/4

Support: 839-849**, 800**,770-775**, 743-746***

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.