Daily Grain Market Update! (1.19.23)
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Crop Tour Results AgResource is conducting a Crop Tour in Brazil this week. Yield estimates for areas of Mato Grosso are ranging from 60-80 bushels per acre. The average yield through two days is 62 bushels per acre. Conab released their yield estimate last week at 53.5 bushels per acre. The market will be watching Day 3 closely. South American Weather Weather forecasts for Brazil and Argentina look largely favorable for the next two weeks, with parts of Brazil drying out and parts of Argentina getting some much-needed precipitation. Lunar New Year Next week, China will be celebrating their Lunar New Year, which may impact and limit the amount of business that gets done, including export. Weekly Export Sales Due to this past Monday being a holiday, weekly export sales data has been delayed until tomorrow morning A Look at the Outside Markets Equity indexes are lower this morning, crude oil is down slightly, trading back below $80.00, and the US Dollar is treading water near 102.00, which is near unchanged.
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Corn (March) Managed Money Position: 137,697 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report) Seasonal Trend in Play: May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years. Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction." The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents. Technicals: March corn futures were on the verge of an all-out technical breakout yesterday morning, trading out above trendline resistance with conviction and taking out the December 30th highs. That strength started to fizzle out around 6am yesterday, which has encouraged some light spillover selling in the early morning hours of today's session. The market is testing the 200-day moving average at 678-1, just below that is the 100-day moving average at 674-5. We will be watching this pocket closely today, as it represents not only two major moving averages but also the breakout point from January 17th and the old trendline resistance. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 685-688 3/4****, 700-704 3/4*** Pivot: 674-678 Support: 662-664**, 647 1/4-652 3/4*** Below is a daily chart of March corn futures |
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Soybeans (March) Managed Money Position: 131,704 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report) Seasonal Trend in Play: None Next Seasonal Trend Start Date: January 31st Technicals: March soybean futures traded in a 37-cent range yesterday, posting an outside day, which is when the market trades above and below the previous day's range. The market made highs around 6am and trading lower for much of the day, then rallying about 15 cents off the lows in the final hour of trade. Yesterday's low will act as first support, that comes in at 1511 1/4, below that is trendline support, which comes in near the psychologically significant $15.00 handle. The new crop November contract is a completely different chart setup, something producers will want to take note of. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1545 3/4-1550***,1569-1572 1/4*** Pivot: 1511 1/4 Support: 1497 1/2-1502****, 1475 3/4-1484***, 1453-1460** Below is a daily chart of March soybean futures |
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Wheat (March) Managed Money Position: -63,134 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report) Seasonal Trend in Play: March KC Wheat has rallied from January 10th-January 26th for 12 of the last 15 years. Technicals (March): March wheat futures mirrored the price action to corn and beans yesterday, trading higher in the morning then reversing to finish the day in negative territory. As mentioned for the last week or so, as we've floundered around the 740 area, we see equal risk on both sides of the market. The risk of a 20-30 cent drop comes across as equal to the risk of a 20-30 cent pop. Both of which we would probably consider fading. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 790-800**, 816 1/2-819 1/4** Pivot: 760-765 Support: 723-725****, 690-700*** Below is a daily chart of March wheat futures |
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