Argentina

Trump Signs Executive Order Quadrupling Beef Imports from Argentina to Keep Ground Beef Affordable

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 22:39:01 GMT

In a move aimed at easing pressure on U.S. beef supplies and keeping prices in check for consumers, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Feb. 6, 2026, temporarily quadrupling imports of lean beef trimmings from Argentina under the U.S. tariff-rate quota (TRQ).

The action comes as USDA confirmed just last week the U.S. cattle herd is now at a 75-year low . Not only are producers showing no signs of herd rebuilding, the White House says low cattle supplies can be attributed to droughts and wildfires in 2022 that impacted key U.S. cattle-producing states, including Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota, which have constrained domestic beef production.

Compounding the supply challenges are restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico following detections of the New World screwworm have limited feedlot stocks, contributing to a record-low U.S. cattle herd.

“As President, I have a responsibility to ensure that hard-working Americans can afford to feed themselves and their families,” the proclamation states. “To increase the supply of ground beef for U.S. consumers, I am taking action to temporarily increase the quantity of in-quota imports of lean beef trimmings under the U.S. beef TRQ.”

The proclamation authorizes an 80,000 metric ton increase in in-quota lean beef trimmings imports for 2026, which will be allocated entirely to Argentina. The additional beef will be distributed in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 metric tons each, beginning Feb. 13, 2026, and continuing through the end of the year.

Record Beef Prices Drive Action

U.S. consumers have seen beef prices climb steadily in recent years, with ground beef reaching an average price of $6.69 per pound in December 2025, which was the highest level recorded since the 1980s. Despite higher prices and the availability of alternative proteins, demand for beef remains strong, prompting record beef imports of 4.64 billion pounds in 2024, a 24% increase over the previous year.

But this is not the first time President Trump has proposed measures to address rising beef costs. In October 2025, he told reporters at the White House, “We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef. The price of beef is higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” without elaborating.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) responded at the time with a strong warning, criticizing the President’s approach. NCBA CEO Colin Woodall says. the plan risked “damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

He emphasizes concerns about trade imbalances, the risk of introducing foreign animal diseases from Argentina, and the importance of focusing on domestic solutions such as New World screwworm facilities, regulatory reforms, and disease prevention programs.

The Trump administration, however, argues the current import expansion is a necessary response to natural disasters and market disruptions that have reduced domestic beef supply. The administration will continue monitoring supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures that may be necessary to ensure stable beef prices for American families.

This proclamation highlights ongoing challenges facing U.S. cattle producers, including climate-related disruptions, disease risks, and supply chain pressures, while signaling the administration’s willingness to leverage international trade to stabilize consumer costs.

Are Beef Prices Too High? Consumer Demand Signals No

Since the president’s initial comments in October, there’s been a debate about if beef prices are too high. Oklahoma State extension livestock specialist Derrell Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Terrain’s Don Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Economists Weigh In: Can Beef Prices Be Lowered Without Harming Producers?

In October, Trump’s initial comments tanked the cattle market. To better understand whether retail beef prices can be reduced without affecting cattle markets, Farm Journal spoke with two economists and livestock market experts. When asked if there’s a way to lower beef prices without impacting cattle futures, both economists say the short answer is, “no.”

“Simple answer is no,” says Close. “I would add to that that when we look at beef prices in relationship to the other proteins, I would absolutely say that pork and broilers have been a beneficiary of the record high beef prices. No doubt. But they are not yet to a point that they are a detriment to beef prices; beef is still gaining market share relative to other proteins.”

David Anderson, extension livestock economist at Texas A&M, echoed that perspective. “I think it’s a great, interesting question, but from the ranch to wholesale beef to retail beef, these prices are all related,” Anderson says. “If it was possible to do something that actually brought down retail prices to consumers, it’s going to have an effect upstream, downstream, however you want to call that. But even then, I’m not sure there’s much you can do to bring down retail prices. We’ve got a product that’s in demand. Even though we look at our nominal retail beef prices that are record high, I think that for consumers, beef delivers value for the money and they’re going to keep buying. That and tighter supplies is a recipe for higher prices. People continue to buy. There’s a bunch of big trends there, heck, let’s eat more protein, you know, and that helps the whole meat complex: beef, dairy, eggs, beans, you name it. So while this supports cattle prices, it also means there’s not a whole lot you can do to bring down beef prices significantly.”

New U.S.-Argentina Trade Deal Sets Stage For President Trump’s Latest Proclamation

The move this week follows a new trade and investment agreement between the United States and Argentina, signed earlier this week by USTR Jamieson Greer and Argentina’s Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno. The agreement provides preferential market access for U.S. goods, eliminates or reduces tariffs on a wide range of products, and enhances cooperation on economic and national security issues.

On agriculture, Argentina has agreed to open its market to U.S. poultry and poultry products within a year and simplify export regulations for U.S. beef and pork. The agreement also requires Argentina to accept U.S. food safety and regulatory standards for meat and poultry, while prohibiting restrictions on U.S. use of certain cheese names, such as asiago, feta, or camembert.

USTR officials said the deal will also enhance cooperation on export controls for sensitive items, protect telecommunications infrastructure, and prevent digital trade barriers that could affect U.S. tech companies. Although China is not mentioned in the text, the agreement is designed to strengthen U.S.-Argentina coordination in addressing unfair trade practices from third countries.

What’s Ahead?

The Trump administration will continue monitoring domestic beef supply and demand, with the Secretary of Agriculture advising on any additional measures necessary to maintain affordable prices for American consumers. While some in the cattle industry remain cautious about importing Argentinian beef, the administration frames the decision as a short-term solution to natural disasters and market disruptions that have tightened domestic beef availability.

Cattle Chop Anticipating Higher Cash, Report: Grains Fall With Outside Markets

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 16:17:48 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains were mostly lower early Friday.

Risk Off Outside Markets Spillover
The ag markets were mostly lower early Friday on spillover from the risk off selling in the outside markets as the money flow continued to spillover. Today the outside markets are reacting to President Trump’s nominee for FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh, with the ideas he is more hawkish and less likely to lower interest rates.

Cattle Markets Await Report
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle markets have gotten caught up in that money flow but are also seeing some caution ahead of the USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report to be released this afternoon. He says the market will be closely watching the beef replacement and all heifers categories for any signs of herd rebuilding. Early trade estimates have total beef cows at 100%, beef replacements at 102% and all heifers at 99%.

Cattle Markets Await Cash
The cattle markets are also awaiting cash trade development. Kooima says there was some light trade at $238 live in Eastern Iowa sold to a regional. Bids have also been passed at $237 so he is anticipating higher cash trade this week. He thinks producers will hold out for higher money after cash trade was surprisingly $2 to $3 higher last week.

NWS Headlines
Feeders may have also reacted negatively to yesterday’s state of emergency declaration by Texas Governor Rick Greg Abbott due to New World Screwworm (NWS). Kooima says the market continues to trade headlines or at least the algorythim traders are.

Lean Hogs Just Off Contract Highs
Lean hog futures were slightly lower in the front month on Friday but the summer futures were once again resuming their uptrend. Kooima says the market hit contract highs earlier this week and then saw some profit taking. With the disease pressure and strong consumer demand he thinks the futures will retest those highs. He says cutouts have been staying about 90 cents which is seasonally very strong and an indication that consumers are trading down proteins and picking pork. Exports this week were also huge at 56,000 MT.

Grains See Risk Off Selling, After Hitting Resistance
Grains futures are mostly lower seeing some profit taking as it is end of the month, plus the corn and soybean futures both hit chart resistance on Thursday at the upper end of their trading ranges and failed. Selling pressure is also tied to the outside market money flow and risk off selling in markets like the metals and the rebound in the dollar.

Grain Rally Fails Thursday on "Asset Reallocation": Livestock Also Pause

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 22:01:57 GMT

Grains ended mixed with corn and wheat seeing slight gains, while soybeans were lower. Cattle ended lower, with hogs mostly higher but off session highs.

Grains Rally Early Then Fail
Grain markets were higher overnight and on the opening Thursday extending gains from Wednesday’s higher close. The grains markets all made some multi-week highs and soybeans and wheat made new highs for the move before failing. Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says the early strength was tied to the 4-year lows in the dollar, new record highs in precious metals and higher crude oil. However, the outside markets quickly reversed and staged a huge correction and a pullback in the stock market was also noted. He calls it a “reallocation of assets” by money managers who may have gotten overextended on many positions and decided to take profits.

“With the dollar dropping as much as it has. There’s been a lot of talk lately about renewing inflation. And also the Fed leaving rates unchanged shows that they’re concerned about inflation as well. And so I think there’s been a lot of talk about money being reallocated to commodities. And generally speaking, that’s a commodity -wide thing. So the grain’s finding some strength in that.”

Plus the six month high is crude oil supports biofuels feed stocks like corn and bean oil. The fact that it is the end of the month likely also played a role.

Soybeans Hit Chart Resistance
Seifried says March soybeans made six week and new highs for the move after closing above the 200-day moving average on Wednesday but then failed. “We got above the 100-day moving average but failed at the 50-day moving average which also represents the downward trend that we’ve been in since we put our highs in back in November.”

He says the market is trying to decide direction and the first time the market puts in a reversal off of key resistance doesn’t mean the rally is over. However, he says the move needs to extend higher quickly. “Otherwise, you’re going to have that 50-day moving average cross below the 100-day moving average that’s called a golden cross and that’s really rather bearish when you have technical traders like funds watching that.”

Could Argentina Weather Push Soybeans Through Resistance?
With hot dry weather much of January in Argentina some private forecasters have trimmed their corn and soybean production estimates for the country. If the forecast stays dry could that be enough to push soybeans over chart resistance? Seifried says it is something he is watching as a possibility. “Precip in January was almost 40% lower than that 10 -year average. So that is a concern.” And if the forecast is still hot and dry in a couple of weeks then the market might get excited about it.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) lowered the good/excellent rating by 6% from last week to 47%. The forecast remains problematic for the next week with warm temps and limited precip for much of Eastern Argentina and Southern Brazil.

Corn Fails at Resistance
Corn futures were fractionally higher on Thursday. The market made new three week highs but hit chart resistance in the March around $4.35 and ended off session highs. Even with the higher wheat and crude oil markets that wasn’t enough to get corn out of its sideways trading range. Seifried says in addition to profit taking you also get farmer selling and cash corn movement this time of year that caps the rallies.

Could a Chart Breakout in Wheat Help Corn?
Wheat futures in all three exchanges also made some new highs for this move and look to be on the verge of a chart break out. If that happens could that also bust corn out of it’s trading range? It’s possible, according to Seifried, but the rally in wheat has been mostly tied to short covering so it may be limited. Funds were short over 125,000 futures contracts in the three classes combined and so he thinks the move has been mostly technical.

Can the Wheat Rally Continue?
Seifried says wheat has seen some support from the 4-year low in the dollar index, geopolitical concerns and cold temperatures and that has caused short fund traders to step aside for the moment. Still, he doesn’t think there is enough of a change it the fundamentals to rally the wheat market much beyond current prices.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures also made some new highs for the move in the feeder cattle and even some of the live cattle contracts before reversing. Was this profit taking ahead of the USDA semi-annual cattle inventory report or the selloff in the financial markets? Seifried says there is some concern because cattle traders often look at the stock market to get a gauge of consumer demand. Still he chalks the reversal up to caution before the report as well as the lack of cash trade. He doesn’t think cattle were caught up in any of the money flow or reallocation of assets taking place in the outside markets.

Lean Hogs Higher But End Off Session Highs
Lean hog futures ended mostly higher but off session highs. The market saw a profit taking correction on Wednesday and tried to rebound with help of strong weekly exports of 56,000 MT but stalled out in the summer months again just under the $110 level. However, Seifried says with strengthening cash he doesn’t think the rally is done.

Can Soybeans Rally to $11 Bidding for Acres?

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 16:29:21 GMT

Grains futures were higher early Thursday led by soybeans. Cattle were mixed with hogs higher.

Soybeans Continue Rally Bidding for Acres
Soybeans continued to rally on Thursday. Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says this isn’t just short covering. He doesn’t think the market is that concerned about South American weather as the dryness is mostly confined to Argentina and may not have a big impact on Brazilian production. Instead he believes the markets is realizing USDA’s 1.525 billion bu. export estimate is too low and is now bidding for soybean acres with higher prices. USDA reported another flash sale of 7.1 million bu. of beans to unknown destinations again Thursday morning.

Corn Soybean Ratio Tipping Towards Soybeans
Akre says analysis of the corn soybean price ratio shows it currently at 2.4 to 1 which would favor soybeans. However, he thinks corn acreage for 2026 will be down about 3.5 million acres at 95 million acres, which is the same as S&P Global’s latest forecast. Soybean acreage could be up over 3 million acres but that may not be enough with the current export and crush demand. Currently S&P Global is estimating soybean acres will rise 2.3 million to 84.5 million.

Akre says their estimate is based on the current corn to soybean price and crop insurance guarantee ratios, which influences acres and that was true in 2025. “So that ratio has a ten year average of about 2.4 last year following the tariff threats on China. The market knew that we weren’t going to be exporting a lot of beans to China. So that ratio fell down to about 2.25 and that’s when we saw acres explode up to that 98 million acre mark. Here this week, that ratio is basically went from 2.3 up to 2.4. So right near average and above 2.4 is where we start to see soybeans really start to gain more market share but the change hasn’t been that big.”

So with soybean carryout tight at 350 million bushels and with improved exports, he thinks the soybean market may need to rally soon to attract more acres “But it’s not only what soybeans does. If corn just stays at $4.20 like it’s done over the past week. I don’t think soybeans are going to have to work that hard. You get pushing above $11 and I think the market, I think people are going to start planting more soybeans pretty quickly. Once that happens, especially if that ratio gets to 2.5, 2.6 we’ve seen that happen earlier in the 2020s, when there was a lot of hype and a lot of exports with the phase one trade agreement, a lot of hype with crush, we saw a lot of soybean acres.” That corn soybean price ratio will be reinforced with the spring crop insurance price guarantees being set during February.

Can Soybeans Get Above $11?
So what price level will producers need to see to add soybeans acres in 2026? Akre says the market will need to get above $11 and he thinks that is possible in the near term as farmers are making those decisions right now. Technically, the market is running up into chart resistance with march needing to clear the $10.70 mark and close above it to extend the rally.

China Done Buying Soybeans or Are They Buying More?
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated this week that China has met its 12 MMT purchase requirement from the U.S. However, Akre says even when he includes business to unknown destinations he doesn’t come up with a total that large for China exports. The other question will be once China gets to 12 MMT will they just shut off their buying and only purchase cheaper Brazilian soybeans? Akre says China may come back in by August like they normally do but he thinks that will be the start of the next round of purchases that will be included in the 25 MMT for the following year. Whether or not China will uphold that entire commitment is still yet to be seen according to Akre.

Will Corn Follow Soybeans?
If soybeans rally over $11 will corn need to follow to hold on to acres? Akre thinks with a 17 billion bu. crop and ending stocks over 2.2 billion bu. the market will be comfortable hovering around the $4.20 mark for a while. So far March corn has seen the rallies capped at $4.25 as farmer selling has picked up at those levels.

Can Wheat Sustain a Rally?
Winter wheat futures are higher trying to follow corn and seeing some short covering but Akre doesn’t think the market is really that concerned about the bitterly cold weather in winter wheat areas as there is snow that will accompany the cold blast. He says wheat will struggle to maintain any gains as Akre says global supplies are just too burdensome for the market and provide too much competition for the U.S. While export demand is running 20% ahead of last year, he says it is just not enough to offset the big supplies.

Cattle Chop Ahead of Cattle on Feed
Cattle futures were mixed early chopping ahead of cash direction and the UDSA Cattle on Feed Report. Akre says cattle continue to trade within last week’s trading ranges and will likely do so until the market sees higher cash or confirmation of tight placements.

Lean Hogs Make New Highs
Lean hog futures continued to rally with deferred contracts hitting new contract highs. Akre says the market has been pulled up by the rising cash market and fund buying. However, with the summer months closing in on $110 he thinks there will soon be some hedge pressure that will set back the market.

Soybeans Rally on China Export Hopes, SA Wx: Funds Sell Corn and Wheat

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 21:46:32 GMT

Soybeans end higher Wednesday with corn and wheat lower. Livestock rally.

Soybeans See Gains Wednesday
Soybeans rallied on Wednesday with help from short covering, a sharp rally in bean oil and the market was also adding some weather premium. Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says hot, dry weather is expected in much of Argentina and Southern Brazil in the next 10 days and it is hitting at the critical pod filling stage for some of the soybean crop.

Trade News Supportive for Soybeans?
Soybeans may have seen a little push from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s comments that talks were possible with China before President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi in April. He also suggested that President Trump is encouraging more soybean purchases despite the fact China has reached the 12 MMT of export business it agreed to in late October. McBride is suspect that China is done buying for now and will switch over to cheaper Brazilian soybeans, unless they sense there is a bigger weather problem. He thinks China will get back into a more normal buying pattern.

Soybeans Can’t Close Above Moving Averages
Despite the higher day, March soybeans seem unable to close above key 10 and 20 day moving averages. For March the 20-day is at $10.58 1/4. McBride says the market will need to see a decisive close above this mark to break out of this sideways trading range.

President Trump Backs Down on EU Tariffs
After the close, President Trump announced he was canceling his threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight EU countries if Denmark refused to sell Greenland. Instead, Trump posted via social media that he and NATO’s Rutte agreed to ‘framework of a future deal’ on the Arctic. McBride says this should be positive for especially soybeans since the EU had been a strong buyer of U.S. product when China had backed away from the market. The stock market rallied after the announcement, regaining most of what was lost on Tuesday.

Corn Fails at Resistance...Again
Corn futures started higher on Wednesday, following soybeans, but saw fund and technical selling as it failed at chart resistance again at $4.25 on the March contract. This also comes despite more flash export sales announcements with Columbia buying 5.9 million bu. and 7.7 million bu. being bought by unknown destinations. McBride says despite strong demand corn looks range bound through at least March as there are unlikely to be any real catalysts to rally the market.

Wheat Also Sees Technical Selling
Winter wheat futures also saw a higher overnight session and open but failed at chart resistance and that brought technical selling back into the market. McBride says wheat is struggling with big global supplies and is ignoring the bitterly cold weather forecasts for the Black Sea and U.S. Plains. “Wheat has nine lives and the funds are short in the market and like being short wheat,” he says.

Cattle Continue Recovery
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher again still recovering from last Friday’s huge selloff triggered by New World Screwworm fears and with help from the stabilization of the financial markets. However, the futures are still trading under last week’s highs and may stay within that range until either the cash trade develops or until after the USDA Cattle of Feed Report release. Early trade guesses show sharply lower placements which should be a good reminder of the tight inventory. If the market gets confirmation of that with a bullish report and steady to higher cash trade, the market could take out last week’s highs and add to the rally.

McBride says the two black swans the market is watching for include a reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports and the influx of beef imports. USDA estimates imports will be up 50 million pounds in 2026 as the administration attempts to lower beef prices. The key will be the timing of those imports.

Grains Rally on Corrective Buying, China Biz, Venezuela News: Livestock Post Gains

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 21:30:45 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly higher on Monday.

Soybeans Lead Gains on Corrective Buying
Soybean futures saw double digit gains pulling up corn and wheat futures on Monday. After lower weekly closes and soybeans correcting nearly $1.40 off the November highs the market was oversold and due for a bounce says Chuck Shelby of Risk Management Commodities, a division of Zaner Ag Hedge. Corn and wheat also posted lower weekly closes and saw some corrective buying and short covering.

Venezuela News Brings Surprise Risk On, Commodity Wide Buying
Buying interest across the grain, livestock and outside market complex was driven by a risk-on attitude in global markets. It was a bit of surprise as it followed news over the weekend the U.S. had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The agricultural markets, equities and other assets that are typically sensitive to geopolitical shocks reacted positively. Shelby says the commodity wide buying was tied to ideas of improved demand, plus the market was adding geopolitical premium.

“Venezuela used to be a very prosperous country. We did a lot of trading with them. The uncertainty in the world with the leadership that was there you know, the drug problem and all that. So as we go forward, I think, all the markets look at that as a positive situation going forward. And it’s going to be a difficult challenge there to straighten things out. But the way they were going and all the problems they were having, the way the country had deteriorated, I think the world looked at this as a good thing in the long run.” He adds the energy sector, if rebuilt, will also be positive longer term.

China Buying Rumors
Soybeans got a boost from market chatter that China, Specifically Sinograin, was in the market for 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans. This was offset by concerns that the action of the U.S. government in Venezuela may have angered China. “After such a huge correction in the bean market, I don’t think it takes much in the way of rumors to see the market react the way it did. The question becomes, is China irritated or upset with the United States action in Venezuela? There’s two ways you could look at that. Will they retaliate some or make some different tariff moves or will they continue to buy as they agreed to?” Shelby thinks the move solidifies the U.S. trade position with Beijing as its seen as a signal of strength.

Weather Premium
Corn and soybeans may have also been adding a bit of weather premium as the forecast looks dry in Argentina. Shelby says that could trim some yield in the country. However, Brazil has been fairly routine showers and is showing no threat to the crop at this point. Shelby thinks its too early for a South America weather rally. “Your real concerns currently are in Argentina, which is one of the world’s bigger corn producers. So maybe a little bit bigger impact on corn but we’re entering into the growing season where it becomes critical whether it rains or not. So as each week as we go forward in January the weather forecast there is going to be a market factor.”

Corn Recovers with Soybeans, Still Range Bound
Corn saw spillover buying with the rally in soybeans and some light spillover from the wheat market. However, corn is still in a sideways pattern and is likely to remain stuck until it gets some positive news from the January WASDE. Shelby says corn will need a yield cut of more than three bushels per acre to move the market and create a rally because of the possibility that USDA will lower feed and residual to offset a cut in corn yield. “I think 182 would certainly give the market a reason to break above the 200 day moving average and give us a little uptrend as we move into February.”

Wheat Futures Follow Corn and Soybeans
Wheat futures were also higher following the rally and corrective buying in corn and soybeans. Plus the market was also oversold after hitting new contract lows in March soft red winter wheat on Friday and that brought some short covering into the complex. “Holding above the $5 level is pretty critical but the market has dropped back 60 to 70-cents so it’s just kind of following along.” However, he thinks the sleeper is the war in Ukraine and if Russia continues to attack their grain infrastructure and disrupt exports. “Russia continues to push cheap wheat in the world to finance the war. So, wheat is struggling, but holding above five dollars,” he says.

New Year, New Money?
With the start of a new year the buying seen in the ag markets could also be tied to portfolio reallocation. Shelby says grains are under valued compared to commodities like precious metals and could be ripe for some buying. He thinks there was some evidence of that Monday “I think you saw some index fund rebalancing. If you were an investment fund and you looked out there and you saw something that was undervalued like grains have been for several years it may look like an opportunity,” he explains.

Cattle Futures Mostly Higher
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher except for Feb. live cattle after making some new highs for the move. Shelby says the market has been pushed by strong cash and additional New World Screwworm cases in Mexico. However, to continue to rally the market will also need evidence of strong consumer demand and that includes higher boxed beef prices.

“The question I have going forward in the next month or six weeks is what kind of demand are we going to see? Is demand good enough to hold us up here? We know supplies are tight. We know we’re going to get some more imports from South America eventually. So I think the cattle markets kind of fair value and kind of maybe in a in a sideways trading range for a while,” he adds.

Lean Hog Futures See Strong Gains
Lean hog futures hit their highest levels since mid-October, with the summer months above the $100 mark. This comes despite a softening lean hog index which was down $.41 coming into the session and with the futures at a premium. However, Shelby says hog futures got some spillover from the rally in cattle and the market is looking ahead with consumers gearing up for a big summer of grilling.

“When you look out there at the summer months at $103 to $105 its a really strong price. So I think it was just more buying today, money flow into that market. However, we’re going to have a 250 year celebration, fourth of July. So I think maybe market’s looking ahead as some really good demand,” he adds.

La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 15:35:19 GMT

La Niña might have been the only hope for a production problem in South America to trim their record soybean crop outlook. However, Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist and senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag, told farmers at the South Dakota Soybean Ag Outlook meeting in Sioux Falls, La Niña is starting to weaken — and along with it, the possibility of production problems in South America.

“I’m worried about La Niña already running its course. What I mean by that is normally La Niña’s build through December, peaks around the holidays and then wanes in February. This one’s already starting to back off,” Snodgrass explains.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also issued their outlook for La Niña this week, which includes the weather pattern persisting for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026. That does not mean much for U.S. weather, but it could limit precipitation during South America’s growing season. However, it would fade in South America after the most critical part of the soybean reproductive phase, so if there is an impact in Brazil it would likely be to the second crop corn.

In a La Niña pattern , stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an up-welling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts note.

As such, Snodgrass says he’s cautious about the South American forecast during their critical soybean production phase in January and February.

“Normally if you’re saying, what’s La Niña do, it means a wet Brazil and dry Argentina. El Nino flips it around. I don’t know where we’re going to be because we’re transitioning toward neutral conditions quickly, which means we’re going to have to watch other sub-seasonal factors. If the markets are going to follow weather, they’re going to be on a two -week schedule,” according to Snodgrass.

It’s Raining in Brazil

In the past two weeks, Brazil has been getting needed rains in main production areas, so dryness is no longer a concern. While its early, Snodgrass doesn’t see many production problems and neither do market analysts.

“I look at NDVI values,” he says. “They don’t look off. They’re closer to average.”

Brian Grete, grain and livestock analyst with Commstock Investments, says Brazil has seen thunderstorms over a wide area in the past 10 to 20 days.

“Some of the drier areas have received rains. The rains have come through central Brazil, northeastern Brazil and east-central Brazil, but the Southern areas have turned dry,” he adds.

There’s more rain in Brazil’s forecast in the next 14 days as several cool fronts pass, with 100% to 200% of normal rainfall predicted for all but Rio Grade do Sul in the South, which accounts for nearly 15% of Brazil’s soybean production. Grete says.

“We’ll have to watch that Southern area of Brazil to see if it continues to remain dry, which the forecast suggests through the end of this month,” he adds.

Meanwhile, Argentina is expected to get 50% of normal rainfall the next 14 days, but there are no real concerns there either.

(NASA)

Conab Adjusts Brazil Crop Slightly

On Thursday, CONAB left Brazil corn production nearly unchanged at 138.879 MMT, which is below expectations of 140.96 MMT. The agency cut soybean production from last month by about 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 MMT, mainly due to slightly lower acreage. That was below the expected 179.2 MMT. However, this still a record crop of more than 6.5 billion bushels. CONAB cited some replanting last month due to irregular rainfall, but rains have normalized in most areas of Brazil, and with La Niña starting to fade they may be on pace to hit that record soybean estimate.

Rosario Grain Exchange Leaves Argentina Crop Unchanged

The Rosario Grain Exchange left their corn production estimate at 61 MMT with 57% of the crop planted. The exchange also left soybean production unchanged at 47 MMT and reported 64% of the country had the crop seeded.

Meteorologists forecast the current weak La Niña could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, notes crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. That hasn’t yet materialized, he adds, and crops are doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent.

Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he says. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.

USDA Cuts Corn Carryout With Record Exports: Soybeans and Wheat Unchanged

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 22:45:41 GMT

The December WASDE is not historically a big market mover as USDA does not adjust domestic production, just demand. However, the agency did provide more than a lump of coal for the corn market in the report.

USDA Cuts Corn Ending Stocks
The agency made an aggressive cut to U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025-26 by 125 million bu. to 2.029 billion bu. The cut came as a result of the agency raising corn exports by 125 million bu. to a record 3.2 billion bu.

Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says that was not a major surprise considering the strong pace of corn export sales, plus export shipments to date are up nearly 69% over last year. “So they raised the exports, 125 million, and it makes sense that they did it. Exports have been running red hot here for the last couple months. So the government reflected that in the balance sheet and they took that carryout now down to just a shade over 2 billion bu.” he says. Still, McCormick says carryout is 500 million bushels above last year which is a headwind for the market.

(Farm Journal )

USDA Cuts Global Corn Carryout Well Below Last Year
USDA lowered global corn carryout by 2.2 million metric tons to 279.2 million, well under last year which was also constructive according to McCormick. “The world carryout numbers are dropping. We are now roughly at 10-year lows on raw stocks. We’re at 10-year lows on stocks to use. Now, these numbers will be comfortable, if we have no production problems in South America.” However, he states that if there is a production hiccup or China buys due to the quality issues they are seeing with their corn crop that could spark a rally.

USDA did leave South American corn production unchanged with Brazil at 131 MMT and Argentina at 53 MMT.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Unchanged, Global Carryout Hiked
The one caveat is global wheat supplies are capping corn prices according to McCormick and it was reflected in the balance sheets as USDA raised carryout 3.4 million tons to nearly 275 MMT. That is also around 15 MMT higher than a year ago.

McCormick says that is because USDA raised production for a handful of major wheat producing countries. Canada’s crop was pegged at a record 40 MMT, up 3 MMT, Argentina’s production was also a record 24 MMT, up 2 MMT and the EU was 1.7 MMT higher.

He says, “They raised the Canadian crop, they raised the Australia crop, and they raised the Argentina crop, and on the Argentina crop, it’s a big crop, but it’s also got quality issues, which some of that wheat’s going to compete with the corn on the international feed market. So right now, the market is going to struggle in the wheat near term.”

USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 901 million bu.

(Farm Journal )

U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet Unchanged, Global Revisions Minor
On soybeans, USDA raised world ending stocks only .4 MMT to 122.4 MMT and left South America production unchanged with Brazil at 175 MMT and Argentina at 48.5 MMT.

USDA also kicked the can down the road leaving U.S. ending stocks at 290 million bu. “You could argue it’s a little bit of the gift because I think with China, even buying 12 million metric tons, I think with the lost sales we’re getting from the other countries, I think it’s going to be hard to keep this carry out under 300 million when it’s all said and done,” he explains.

The biggest changes on supply and demand will come with the final report in January.