La Nina Will Probably Be Sticking Around Through All of Winter

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:03:11 GMT

Looks like a potentially market-roiling La Nina will last through the new year, threatening to bring a colder, snowier winter to the northern U.S., drought to Latin America’s soybean-growing regions and rain to Australia’s coal mines.

The odds of the weather phenomenon, characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific, lasting through February are 92 percent, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. That’s up from 73 percent just a month ago. The center said the pattern will probably fade in mid- to late-spring.

La Nina tends to bring more snow to the northern half of the U.S. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

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The kind of weather La Nina tends to bring could spur a rally for heating fuels including natural gas and electricity and for commodities from corn to soybeans to coal. Wheat-rich Argentina has already been dealing with drier weather, and forecasters including World Weather Inc. have raised La Nina as an even bigger threat later this month. The operator of America’s largest power market has warned of the coldest winter in at least three years because of the phenomenon, and gas bulls have been holding out hope for frigid temperatures.

“La Nina is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter by nearly all models,” according to the Climate Prediction Center outlook issued Thursday. “Forecasters favor the peak of a weak-to-moderate La Nina during the winter.”

Taking Hold

While states in the northern half of the U.S. could get colder, the south may be warmer and dryer than usual.

A U.S. study of November weather conditions across the U.S. show La Nina’s impact already taking hold, perfectly matching the typical conditions of the phenomenon, said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. It was “just a one-month map, and it was strikingly La Nina-like,” she said by telephone.

The first part of December brought some unexpected weather, however, with record snowfalls and frigid temperatures plaguing the U.S. South. This was probably the result of another, shorter-lived weather phenomenon called the Madden Julian Oscillation, L’Heureux said.

Once the Madden Julian Oscillation fades, a more predictable pattern of cold in the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes and milder weather across the South and Mid-Atlantic states will return, she said.

‘Skier’s Delight’

The pattern is set to be “a skier’s delight over the northern U.S.,” according to a blog post by Stephen Baxter, a Climate Prediction Center meteorologist. Weaker events tend to bring more snow in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rocky Mountains and northern New England, based on an analysis of data from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, he said.

It’s harder to predict what La Nina means for New York and Boston because they’re at the edge of where the snow typically falls. The fate of that region will probably hinge on where the rain-snow line forms during every winter storm that strikes.

The recent deluge of rain in Argentina could offset the impacts of La Nina on crops by leaving enough water reserves to keep up yields this season. But JPMorgan Chase & Co. has already forecast higher prices and volatility due in part to La Nina that, it said, will help to curb the recent multi-year gain in global corn and wheat yields.

The phenomenon could offer natural gas bulls some relief, too. Gas futures plunged earlier this week to the lowest settlement in 10 months on mild temperature forecasts. Volatility for next-month contracts has rebounded to the highest levels since February amid uncertainty in weather outlooks.

Australia Meteorologists Issue La Nina Alert

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 18:26:02 GMT

Australia moved one step closer to declaring La Nina , issuing an alert for the event as the Pacific Ocean continues to cool.

Sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific are just shy of La Nina thresholds and show a clear progression toward the pattern, the Bureau of Meteorology said on its website on Tuesday. Atmospheric indicators have shown signs of shifting into a La Nina-like state, it said. The bureau issued an alert, meaning an approximately 70 percent chance of the event occurring.

La Ninas occur when the atmosphere above the equatorial Pacific reacts to cooling water temperatures and typically deliver colder winters across the northern U.S., drought in Brazil’s soybean-growing areas and flooding rains across the coal-mining regions of Australia. The U.S. earlier this month said a weak La Nina formed in October and had a 64 percent chance of lasting through March.

Australia’s weather bureau said all international climate models reach La Nina thresholds in December, with most maintaining values until at least February. Any event is likely to be weak and short-lived, it said.

Prices for agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar and coffee may rise and be volatile if La Nina arrives, BMI Research said last month. Australia’s cotton output may benefit as the rain that the event brings can fill dams for irrigators, according to Cotton Australia.
La Nina typically causes above-average rainfall in eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of La Nina, reducing the likelihood of widespread summer rain. The pattern can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia.

La Nina typically brings drier conditions to the U.S. South and wetter weather to the Pacific Northwest and western Canada.

Last year’s La Nina was unusually brief, forming in November and gone by February. This one should hang around through the end of winter. While it may last a bit longer than last year’s La Nina, it should be just as weak, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Copyright 2017, Bloomberg News

* with additional news from AP

Australia - continent

La Nina Will Probably Be Sticking Around Through All of Winter

Taking Hold

‘Skier’s Delight’

Australia Meteorologists Issue La Nina Alert