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Grains Rally on War, WASDE, China Meeting: Cattle Hit by Beef Import Fear

Mon, 11 May 2026 21:51:39 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended higher Monday with cattle mostly lower.

Grains Add Risk Premium
Grains markets were higher on Monday adding risk premium tied to the breakdown of the peace talks with Iran over the weekend and higher energy prices.

Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says both sides rejected the deal and so funds were buying and as long as crude oil stays at high prices that will bring in inflationary buying.

“I think you move some of those investors from the equity markets to the grain side, one on inflationary concerns, but two, just saying these things are undervalued. We know we have plenty of supplies at the present time but that could change. But let’s just take some money and put over there. And I think that was really the catalyst that it got started. Now we got to see what it takes to get it to go further,” he explains.

Big News Week....Including China Summit
The other factor that is moving the grain markets and bringing in fund buying is optimism about ag purchases as part of this week’s China summit between President Trump and President Xi.

Soybeans have been adding premium heading into the meeting according to Boddicker. “The market always gets excited when President Xi and President Trump are going to get together, knowing great things are going to happen, but we’ll see if it does or not. You know, in the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz closed that might be more of an incentive for China to come in and do some things with the U.S. to try to get some concessions and get that opened back up.”

How Much China Business Priced Into Soybeans?
But how much of the soybean purchase agreements with China is already priced into the soybean market?

Boddicker says, “One would have to think that most of it is. We are here in the seasonal time, on the beans where you put some highs in, but nothing saying you couldn’t have. But when you have these types of summits most of it’s priced in ahead of time, unless there’s some really huge surprise that you’re not thinking of.”

China Buying Other Ag Goods?
The other key is whether or not China buys other ag products beyond soybeans as the grain market is already pricing some of that in as well.

“One ship can keep all afloat sometimes, and I think that’s helping. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if China did some corn and some wheat in here, but time will tell if they do,” he adds.

Running Into Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans may have stalled out though running into chart resistance on Monday.

Could the market break above those recent highs with some good news from China?

Boddicker says, “I think it’s a possibility. You know, if I were a producer and I didn’t have much done on new crop beans somewhere from here to $12, I would be pricing somewhere whether that be in the cash or in the futures. If I did futures, if I started going back over $12 or $12.60 or so. I’d probably exit that and see where it went because I’d have a breakout at that point. But I think it’s not a bad area to do some things.”

July corn is also nearing the double top from last week at $4.78 1/2 but Boddicker thinks that mark could be retested.

“I think it’s a possibility. After hitting chart resistance you really thought this thing could break back to $4.50 to $4.60 and you went to $4.61, which I think was great support. And that’s a 25, 26 cent break, which would be about right,” he says.

Boddicker thinks the corn market needs to get a supply shock from weather or a demand shock from the China summit to get through overhead resistance.

He probably needs some news to get going in here with the supplies we got to do, whether that’s weather or something out of the China summit in here.

May WASDE Positioning
The grain market was also gearing up for the May WASDE with little change expected in the old crop balance sheets.

The focus will be on the first new crop estimates of the season and the trade is anticipating soybean production to be up 183 million bu. from last year at 4.445 billion bu. due to a 3.5 million acre increase in acreage. Yet, the ending stocks are estimated to be up only 19 million bu. from last year at 364 million.

Corn production could be down over 1 billion bu. from last year with acreage cut nearly 3.5 million against a trendline yield of 183 bu. That brings ending stocks down nearly 200 million bu. to 1.933 billion bu.

Boddicker says that is largely priced into the corn market.

Winter wheat production is expected to fall 200 to 250 million bushels below last year with ending stocks down to 833 million bu.

Boddicker says that is reasonable with the problems in the hard red winter wheat crop.

“I think you get a lot of areas that are dry and that wheat’s really gotten hurt. The next two or three weeks, as you know, is going to be critical. But just where it goes from this point, I’m
not sure. But I think there could be some surprises there. But whether they’re going to bring it out now or later, time will tell us,” he says.

Kansas Wheat Quality Tour
The size of the Kansas wheat crop will at least be determined by scouts on this week’s Wheat Quality Tour but will it move the market?

Boddicker says, “The trade has a lot of that priced in with looking at bad conditions that we’ve seen. We got a little improvement last Monday on the report but could they come back and say, hey, there’s more acres that we’re going to destroy here. That could be the real surprise.”

Exports and Inspections
The corn market saw flash sales on Monday morning of 15 million bu. of corn to Mexico, split between old and new crop. South Korea also bought 5.8 million bu. of corn.

Weekly export inspections were strong on corn at 66.6 million bu. with the year to date total up 30% from last year.

Soybeans export inspection were at 24.1 million bu. which are solid for this time of year, but the total is still 23% below last year.

Wheat export inspections were 18.8 million bu. and now total 840 million bu. which is up 13%.

Boddicker says that data was mostly supportive and reflects a change in attitude by many countries that are stockpiling grain.

“A few months ago, I think we can go back and say that we changed the attitude of that importer to say, I’m no longer going to buy hand to mouth. I better put something in reserve just in case more gets out of hand with the American and Iranian war and other things going on in the world,” he explains.

Cattle Market Hit by Beef Import Hike
Cattle futures were mostly lower except for nearby contracts reversing the strong opening.

The market reacted to President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations to curb record high beef prices.

Boddicker says, “What can break the camels back? When President Trump came out and said that he’s going to drop the tariffs on Brazilian beef and other countries to get more beef in the U.S.”

He says this caused funds and algorithm traders to again liquidate on concerns that the government is getting involved in trying to get beef prices down at the grocery store.

“We looked at preliminary open interest numbers from the CME this morning were looking like we were down 2,100 contracts, which would have meant long liquidation on Friday on the sell-off. And then when they came up with final numbers, it was a plus 3,900. Again, a 6,000 contract swing indicating there was more new selling on Friday. Something wreaks in Denmark on that much of discrimination or discrepancy between those reports,” he adds.

Cattle Market Topping Action?
However, it is hard to call a top in this type of market he says.

“We’ve seen this action before and every time it’s come back. When we look at some cyclical things, you’re looking for some intermediate term highs in both feeder cattle and fat cattle in May. So could we have done that already? We could. I think only time is going to answer it. But this market, as we all know, is fundamentally is strong but is still headline driven,” he says.

The market also failed to rally on record cash trade which topped at $260 in the North and don’t forget the DOJ probe announcement on Friday.

“The only thing that bugs me on that is what are we going to find out? We’re just getting settlements from the last DOJ probe. What are we going to do different this time than we did last time?”

Hog Bounce
Lean hog futures bounced off the new contract lows scored on Friday. So was this just a one day pop?

Boddicker says he was encouraged the summer months at least held chart support after testing it the last several sessions and it came as cattle futures fell.

Can the continue to market recover?

He says, “It feels like we maybe have the high end for the year but a $5, $6 rally would not be unexpected,”

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:32 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

Soybeans Lead Grain Recovery Friday on Talk of China Soybean Purchases

Fri, 08 May 2026 21:30:05 GMT

Grains ended higher Friday with cattle lower.

Grains Recover Friday, Follow War Headlines
Grain markets recovered on Friday with crude oil as the hopes for a cease fire and peace deal with Iran started to fade.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week.

“Headlines have been all over the place. We came into the week with crude oil sharply higher, thinking that the blockade that was on from the United States and of course also by Iran was going to be long lived. And the market was even looking and saying that that blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last to the end of summer,” he says.

Grains and a lot of commodities added war premium because of that and then reversed lower on news of a peace deal later in the week.

“When the we saw a mutual letter of understanding, a one pager by President Trump to the Iranians trying to find a way to open the Strait and maybe get to a 30-day negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That gave the market a drop, if you will. And then on Friday, as tensions started to come back up as the U.S. attacked a few tankers, the market added war premiums. So in my mind, war is still the big factor in grain trade. We’ll see how the next week plays out. But next week,

Strait Reopening is Key
The big key is getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Basse is giving that about 33% odds.

“I’ve increased it a little bit because I do believe that there’s pressure on the Iranians as they run out of storage for their crude oil production to maybe get back to the negotiating table,” he says.

He says a forced deal in which the U.S. military and Iran will go back and forth will open it up for short periods of time, otherwise the U.S. may continue the blockade.

“But as you go forward, again, we’ll see how Trump is able to negotiate. And the Iranians at this point are not anxious to get to the negotiating table, which concerns me. But we’ll see how Pakistan really nudges them forward along with the Chinese,” he says.

Corn and Wheat Rally Over?
Without a re-escalation could the corn and wheat rally be over, especially after lower weekly closes?

“Managed money or funds are along about a half million contracts of grain, corn, soybeans, and wheat, it does show the markets put a tremendous amount of war premium in the price. We’ve done some analysis at AgResource. We think it’s about 45 cents on corn, $1.40 on beans, and about 25 cents on wheat in terms of war premium. If that war were to end, that premium comes out. I also believe the markets will be more focused on new crops,” he adds.

So he thinks farmers should be rewarding the market rallies.

Soybeans End Higher on China Purchase Talk
Soybeans led the rally on Friday with the summit coming up May 14 and 15.

Basse says, “The summit is expected to produce maybe some Chinese buying. Rumors from China on Friday had them buying some 12 to 13 million metric tons from the United States. If I combine that with the 12 million tons they bought last November through of, let’s say, the end
of January, that would take us to 25 million metric tons. And remember, back in that November meet, the United States talked about China committing to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. So we’ll see how this all plays out. I do not think that buying 12 or 13 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is all that bullish.”

That’s because it will lead to lower soybean export figures but still the market saw this as demand from China and it got the market moving higher on Friday.

China Summit Deliverables?
So what is the market looking for to keep the China premium built into the soybean market intact?

Basse says, “The USTR and Ambassador Greer has been talking about a board of trade idea. And the board of trade is not in Chicago. It’s a board of trade concept in which the United States would start to sell additional ag commodities to the Chinese under some separate terms. So maybe that includes wheat or corn or beef or other products. And so whether or not Ambassador Greer can get that across the finish line next week will be important. If we broaden commodity mixtures to China, from the United States, that would be more bullish.”

He thinks it will take another summit in November to get that done.

Will China Buy Other Crops?
China has said they want to buy non-soybean row crops though, so could the soybean bulls be disappointed.

He says its entirely possible, “Listen, when we head into these kind of negotiations or summits, it’s all political. And that is something that, you know, as an analyst, we can’t look behind the curtain very far. I am troubled about several things, though. Again, I’d like China to drop its tax on soybeans. It has a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans coming in, a 15% duty on grain. So that needs to end. But on the other side of that, I would be hopeful that maybe we can start to sell some grain to China. and wheat and other meat products. That would just help the U.S. farmer broaden things out.”

He also hopes the two countries can normalize trade with a market-based system.

“Not where presidents Xi or Trump, decide what’s going to happen.”

Global Tariffs Struck Down, Leverage for China?
In additiona, the 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful on Friday. So, does that give China more leverage in these discussions next week?

Basse says, “Oh, it sure does. You know that a 10% tariff was on China. If we remember back to the last meeting that happened back in November, that tariff rate was somewhere just shy of 50%. So the Chinese like to trade. In other words, if they’re going to get a lower tariff, they’ll do something in terms on the buy side. And we saw that with the fentanyl tariffs back in November. If there’s no tariffs on China, which would be the implication of that, that 10% tariff being wiped. out, I wondered what else the United States could provide China. Maybe there’s something on Taiwan. Maybe there’s something elsewhere. But the availability to trade tariffs for China doing something is diminished with this decision that came on.”

He says it’s disappointing that this happened right before the trade summit.

Wheat Topped?
Wheat may have topped but with the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour next week could that shock the market into causing some weather premium to be added?

“I think that we’ll all look to the Kansas tour and the NASS production estimate that comes out on Tuesday as kind of giving us what the probabilities are in terms of how small is small. There’s some of us that see the hard red winter wheat crop down in the 575 to 585 million bushels. If it goes below that, then that will be somewhat bullish,” he explains.

However, he says the world wheat carryover of old and new crop wheat is a near record supply.

“So there’s no shortage of wheat in the world. We just have a shortage of hard red wheat in the Kansas or the Plains. And then the question is, what do U.S. millers do accordingly? But I worry about export demand going forward because we are hearing that Russia is selling wheat
into Mexico. We’re hearing Russia selling wheat into places like Brazil. These are traditional U.S. customers. I hate to see that business being lost to the Russians,” he adds.

He thinks USDA may lower the winter wheat crop between 200 to 225 million bushels with ending stocks dropping 100 to 125 million bushels.

May WASDE Expectations
Will USDA raise corn exports in the May WASDE and lower soybean exports?

“Yeah, I think that’s the popular tone that people want to raise exports a little bit on corn, maybe cut the ethanol estimate because of the inclusion of sorghum in the weekly grinds or monthly grinds. That’s all possible. I think USDA kind of holds pad, if you will, and we don’t see a big change on end stocks. We still stay above 2.1 billion. And then on soybeans, you know, we’re looking at around 340 to 350 million bushels, maybe down 5 to 10 million bushels there. Maybe exports need to be trimmed a little bit in soybeans, but crush numbers need to rise. Wheat won’t change much,” he adds.

For new crop corn ending stocks his estimate is above 2 billion bushels as USDA sticks with trendline yield of 183 bu. Soybeans will also see trendline yield of 53 bu.

The wheat number will change based on the NASS production report of winter wheat.

China export demand is still up in the air. “And a lot of that depends upon the summit on Thursday, Friday. So if I’m USDA, I’m not going to make a big change in Chinese soybean demand just yet.”

The biggest changes could come with USDA raising the Argentinian corn crop, six or seven million metric tons. They also could do the same to Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop could nudge up just a million or two tons, he adds.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures ended lower despite record cash trade. Is that just profit taking or is that a bigger concern?

Basse says, “I believe it’s somewhat of a concern. Seasonally speaking, as we tend to get into the early part of June, excuse me, May, and we normally make a top in the beef market. That top usually corresponds with the Mother’s Day weekend. So coming after that, I expect beef prices to start decline. We also see cash cattle numbers rising, or at least fed cattle numbers rising for the next three or four weeks. Slaughter has been relatively low relative to on-feed estimates over the last four or five weeks. I believe those cattle will now come to market maybe at some heavier weights, and that could cause some easing, if you will, of cash prices.”

But he doesn’t see any end to the longer term bull market in cattle because there is no dramatic expansion in the cattle herd.

“So tightening supplies longer term is still the theme. It’s just that the market could have a correction here,” he adds.

Brazilian Beef Imports
The talk of higher Brazilian beef imports and the DOJ investigation of meat packers may have also spooked the funds.

“Well, we did have President Lula at the White House on Thursday, and there was a discussion of better or improving beef trade into the United States. A lot of that beef will be used for the grind. In other words, hamburger in Brazil was the biggest importer customer into the United States looking backwards to 2024. So I imagine that there is that potential there, but the Brazilians are going to take a little while to have it all happen. And now we’ve got the Section 122 tariff news, there’s a little push on that. But again, I don’t think it’s enough to really collapse the market. I do believe it’s something that could give us a correction,” he states.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:04:51 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

What You Need to Know: USDA's March 2026 Crop Production and WASDE Numbers

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 15:05:04 GMT

Markets Close: Corn and Wheat Fall While Soybeans Hold

Michelle Rook wraps up the day and where the markets landed with Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc.

Most Notable From Today's Numbers: World Corn Ending Stocks

The March WASDE report is typically a bit of a "snoozer" in terms of updates from USDA, says Lane Akre with Pro Farmer. This year was no exception, though sometimes insight can be gleaned from a lack of change. Perhaps most notable in today’s reports was the world ending stocks figure for corn coming in above expectations. USDA pegged world corn stocks at 292.75 MMT for 2025-26, above expectations of 289.19 MMT and last month at 288.98 MMT. That change can largely be attributed to increased production, though world use is expected to decline as well outside of feed, which is an interesting assumption given the war in Iran. USDA increased Brazilian corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMT and Ukrainian production by 1.7 MMT to 30.7 MMT. Both saw similar increases to ending stocks. USDA remains rather pessimistic over Brazilian production as several private forecasters are forecasting a crop toward 140 MMT. Conab currently pegs the crop at 138 MMT. USDA historically is not this low on production and typically toward the top end of estimates rather than the bottom. Considering the disruption to world energy flows, the cut to world use outside of feed (a large chunk of which is ethanol) is puzzling. Vegetable oil prices have surged amid anticipation of higher use to make of for lower crude, yet corn use was cut. Click here to read more of Akre's takeaways on Pro Farmer.

Listen Now on AgriTalk: Report Reaction From Bill Lapp

Bill Lapp with Advanced Economic Solutions joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to share his take on the March Crop Production and WASDE numbers. Tap here to listen live.

Report Analysis With Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net

Supply and Demand Forecast for U.S. Wheat and Corn

Market Reaction to March WASDE Numbers

Stay on top of the markets in real time on AgWeb's markets page. Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 5 to 7 cents lower, soybeans were 4 to 7 cents higher, wheat futures were 12 to 15 cents lower and cotton was mostly 60 to 80 points higher. Following the report release, there was little market reaction.

No Change in U.S. Ending Stocks

By the Numbers: March WASDE

As anticipated, there are very few changes to the March WASDE. According to Bill Watts with Pro Farmer, the biggest standout might be the bump in global corn ending stocks to 292.75 million metric tons from 288.98 MMT in February, reflecting bigger crops in Brazil and Ukraine. Corn: There are no changes for U.S. corn outlook compared with the February WASDE. The season-average corn price is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion based on increases for Ukraine and Brazil, which are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Trade changes include higher corn exports for India. Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher, while Argentina's exports are reduced. Global corn ending stocks are up 3.8 million to 292.8 million tons, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Soybeans: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports are increased 5 million bushels. Crush is raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean oil domestic use is marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use is lowered 800 million pounds to 14 billion and soybean oil ending stocks are revised slightly higher. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 350 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $5 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents. Global soybean production is reduced on lower production in Argentina (down 0.5 million tons to 48 million) and Ukraine (reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million). Global soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine Wheat: There are no changes for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories. The season-average farm price is up 5 cents per bushel to $4.95. The 2025/26 global outlook projects larger supplies and consumption but reduces trade and ending stocks. Supplies increase by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million, primarily on increased output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that is partly offset by lower production in Australia. Australian production is down by 1 million tons, with harvest nearly complete, to 36 million – its third highest on record. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the European Union. World trade is up 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million, with larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan that are mostly offset by lower forecasts for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 277 million but remain at a five-year high. For a break down of global production highlights, visit Pro Farmer's report reaction.

Dan Basse Shares a Boots-On-the Ground Report from Brazil

What to Expect From USDA On Corn, Soybeans and Wheat

The report, due at 11 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less. It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Donald Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million metric tons. In its February WASDE, USDA acknowledged China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet. Corn exports continue to run well ahead of their expected pace, but USDA might be reluctant to further boost what is already a record forecast, possibly opting to wait another month or two. USDA’s take on South American production isn’t likely to see a big shift. In February, USDA raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180 million metric tons, up from 178 million metric tons in January. Argentina was left unchanged at 48.5 million metric tons. Private forecasters have since issued projections above and below USDA’s Brazil forecast as harvest progresses in northern Mato Grosso. Harvest in Brazil is under way and yield reports are generally strong, though significant quality concerns were reported in northern Mato Grosso. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to trim its Brazil forecast by 600,000 metric tons to 179.4 million metric tons and take 200,000 metric tons off the Argentina estimate to 48.3 million metric tons. Corn estimates are also unlikely to see a major shift. USDA pegged Brazil’s crop at 131 million metric tons in February and Argentina at 53 million metric tons. Analysts expect USDA to raise its Brazilian corn estimate by 1 million metric tons to 132 million metric tons, while shaving 100,000 metric tons off Argentina’s crop to 52.9 million metric tons. For more on what to expect in the February WASDE report, head on over to Pro Farmer.

Soybeans Hold on Strong: Corn, Wheat See Corrective Selling Pressure Early Tuesday

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 16:20:54 GMT

Grains were mostly lower early Tuesday except for fractional gains in soybeans. Cattle and hogs were solidly higher.

Soybeans Hold Awaiting China Sales
Soybeans started off slightly lower on corrective selling but quickly found buying interest says Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag. He says the funds are buying on the breaks on the hopes of more China business and are trying to price in the additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans President Trump says the Chinese are going to buy. However, to keep moving higher the market will need confirmation of that China business.

Market Needs China Confirmation
There were no flash export sales to China on Tuesday morning and Martinson says there may not be much business this week as China is on their Lunar New Year holiday which lasts until March 3. “So it’s unlikely we’re going to get official confirmations from China of them buying. We might get some sales from unknown destinations, but right now it does look like China’s going to be away from the market for the next two weeks.”

Soybeans Flirting With Resistance
Soybeans are flirting with chart resistance at last week’s highs and so the China business is probably the trigger to get over those levels. Martinson is hopeful some other countries will buy to keep the momentum going but with U.S. prices over a $1 over Brazil the U.S. may be too expensive at these prices. The difference may be those countries that have lower tariffs.

Brazil Harvest Slow
Plus, Martinson says Brazil’s harvest has been slowed and they are talking about some quality issues where it has been too wet. “I think that’s helping to keep some of our sales moving. I think as we get deeper into their harvest and they get through some a little bit better weather, that will change. But for right now, I think we’re still staying somewhat competitive in most countries.

Funds Adding to Length in Soybeans
The funds are adding to their length in soybeans and as of last Tuesday had bought over 94,000 contracts, which is a record week of buying. They are now long over 123,000 contracts in soybeans. So they have bought into the idea of the additional 8 MMT and that China may buy it before the big summit between Trump and Xi in China. However, Martinson says timing is key because if China doesn’t buy until after the Brazilian harvest, soybean prices may currently be too high.

USDA Ag Outlook Forum Watched
So will the grain markets also be gearing up for the USDA Ag Outlook Forum this week? Martinson says any reaction will be focused on acreage. “The market doesn’t look at these numbers. You know, it’s an economics view of what’s going to happen. And it’s more for baseline projections for, you know, government funding that this meeting takes place. But the 26 numbers are going to be looked at because they’re fairly accurate to what, you know, they’re thinking producers are going to be looking at doing. The big number is going to be acres. You know, where will soybean acres fall? Where will corn acres fall? And that, I think, is going to be the big, what everybody looks at. And then where we put trend line yields, where they come into play. Those are going to be the two, I think, biggest attention grabbers for the report”

Corn Lower Tuesday
Corn is lower on Tuesday following wheat but also seeing some corrective selling as the market got up into some chart resistance late last week. Plus, there may be some farmer selling ahead of first notice day at the end of the month. “We do have a lot of March basis fixed contracts that are coming due here at the end of the month. And I do think there is some movement against that, especially since we traded up to that $4.35 resistance line in the March contract. I think that created a lot of farmer selling.” Plus, the weather has been better for cash grain movement.

Could China Buy Corn?
Corn has been stuck in a sideways range but there is growing talk of China needing corn due to a poor quality crop and their corn prices have moved up to levels not seen since July. So Martinson says that is a possibility. “You know, that seems to be the rumor that’s hitting the marketplace right And, you know, it’s kind of being backed up by fact that they bought 45 cargos of sorghum from the U .S. They’ve increased their purchases of Australian barley. So they’ve been seeing a large increase in feed stuffs from of other sources. So we’ve had a lot of unknown purchases of corn for exports. That could be China. We don’t know quite yet.”

Wheat Falls
Wheat futures were also lower on a higher dollar and corrective selling. But Martinson says an upgrade to the Russian crop by 3 MMT was also a factor. In addition India is going to allow wheat exports. “Maybe that’s a little bit of a pressuring factor in India. The deal that we’re supposed to have with them is not going to include any wheat, is it? It’s not going to include any wheat. Actually, to appease the producers in India, India made an agreement to export 2 .5 million metric ton of wheat. So it actually is going to put more wheat onto the export market, which is a little bit negative. So, yeah, that agreement with India kind of is not going to be quite as beneficial as we were hoping.”

Cattle Soar
Cattle futures saw some profit taking on Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend but are back up on Tuesday with higher cash says Martinson. Southern cash was $246to $249, but mostly $248. Northern trade was $376 to mostly $382 dressed, up $4. Live sales at $245 to $246. The five area weighted average was $245.62, up $4.49 from the previous week.

“We did see live cattle finish the week with some good gains, feeder cattle finished the week, you know, steady. So, I mean, it was nice to see a little bit more incentive go over to the feedlot side or to the fat cattle side. We are seeing the market off to the races. And I think they’re going to try to make a test for those old contract highs before they’re satisfied in this market.”

Hogs Recover
Lean hog futures were also higher with cattle and seeing some short covering after seven lower sessions and lower weekly closes. The market was overdone and due for a bounce. “I think we’re following cattle right now. I think there’s some sympathy move as far as the cattle going up. I think hogs are going up. Technically, they’ve also seen a pretty good pullback. So I think that’s also adding a little bit of push into their market.”

Grains End Higher for the Week Riding the China Wave

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 22:57:05 GMT

Grains ended mostly lower except for fractional gains in corn. Cattle and hogs were mostly lower.

Soybeans See Profit Taking on Friday
Soybeans were lower by 3 to 4 cents on Friday on profit taking heading into the holiday according to Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions. “Yeah, we have a three -day weekend and, you know, we had some good gains in soybeans and meal for the week.

Soybeans Higher for the Week on China News
Soybeans were 18 to 20 cents higher for the week with the big push coming from optimism about more China purchases as part of the additional 8 million metric ton President Trump says is on the way. However, the market also got a push from news that China and the U.S. were extending the trace truce a year and lowering tariffs. Will the market be able to continue to rally on that hope without confirmation of purchases?

Frye says, “I think it’ll come down to what China does ahead of this April meeting. And whether we see a truce or not, the tariffs get backed off. President Trump is pretty confident they’re going to buy beans. We’ll see if they do or not. He was confident last time, and they have purchased those 12 million metric tons, they agreed to. So I don’t know why they’d purchase a lot more, given where South American origin are. They’re a $1.20 under the Gulf and so I don’t know why they would other than they’re getting something in a trade deal.”

Can Soybeans Get Above $12?
So can the soybean market get above the November highs if flash sales from China start emerging or is the technical momentum enough for the funds to keep buying?

“Well, I think we can stretch up to $12 easy enough, before we have a retracement. I do a lot of work on the quantitative side, and soybeans have had the best setup. Soybeans and meal have had a better setup than corn or wheat. And so I’ve felt for quite some time that if we’re going to get a rally and something is going to lead us out of here, it’ll be the soybeans.”

He says it doesn’t make sense fundamentally with the record crop in South America but something is brewing with China. “Maybe there’s something going on with weather issues coming up in our growing season and we can’t even see now, but there’s some reason that soybeans are doing what they’re doing and they certainly have fooled a lot of people that are fundamentalists, they’re looking at balance sheets, looking at how big the supply is in South America and they were just too bearish as beans rallied out of here heading toward that $12 area.”

South American Headwind
At the same time harvest is starting in Northern Brazil and the market is trying to price in a record crop with Conab raising production on soybeans this week by nearly 2 MMT to just under 178 MMT. Frye says the crop is pretty much made right now.

“Well, their crops big down there. They’ve had really good weather, not in every single, you know, area, region in South America, but overall, they have gotten so much needed rain to stabilize Argentinian crop and, of course, southern Brazil. And so I expect that yields out of Argentina are going to be larger than we’ve ever seen, maybe close to that 56 -58 million metric ton mark.”

Frye says soybean production in South America could be up 5 to 6 million metric tons over last year’s record. “So we’re talking about some big yields, some big numbers. Now, China is importing more. There is more demand in the world, but will demand be able to keep up with the supply? The supply will be overwhelming for a while coming out of South America. And you’ll see that in FOB prices which are $1.50 under U.S. Gulf.”

Corn Needs Catalyst to Break Out of It’s Range
Corn was higher for the week by a couple of cents but still is trading within its sideways range. Can anything change that? Frye says the market needs a catalyst like a weather issue or war. Demand has been record strong as far as exports but he thinks feed and residual is still to high. “It is not as big as what the USDA stated. I think that number has come down, but I also think exports have to go up. Those are kind of a trade -off.”

He says what the market really needs is a supply shock in Safrinha corn. “We’ve got to watch what happens as we get into the end of February here, the beginning of March, and we see what’s happening at the end of March, beginning of April, where the corn is developing, and how their moisture situation is, because if it does cut off early, we could reduce that crop. And with their industrial use being up, that’ll take it away from the export side. That will give us more exports. And that could be the supply shock we need to get corn off its rear end.”

Can Wheat Rally?
Corn needs help from the wheat market which had a strong week of gains. But was this just short covering and can the market build on the gains especially as Russia just raised their crop estimate again by 3 MMT?

Frye says, “Yeah, I mean, from a money flow standpoint, we could build on this. One of the things against wheat is just our balance sheet increased on this last USDA report. We know that Russia’s got a target with the USDA 44 million metric tons for exports. I don’t think they’re going to come close to that. I think there’ll be a couple million metric tons under that just because of logistical problems, weather, war, what have you. Plus demand has not been stellar on the wheat side. So, hey, if they’re ending stocks are growing, we have plenty.”

He says the only other spark for a rally is something geopolitical like a bigger attack on Ukraine. “It’s a breadbasket. And the three bread baskets, Argentina, Ukraine, and United States are very important in world production. And if we’d have something happen there with escalation, then obviously wheat would really take off. But other than, you know, those things like a weather problem or a war or some problem in Ukraine, I don’t know how wheat leads us out of here.”

Rally in Crude Oil Could Help
Frye says as far as money flow the best scenario for the grains would be a rally in the crude oil market. “The energy markets really are key, and they’re starting to turn. If you take a look at heating oil, crude oil, or the RBOB, you look at those and you say, hey, we’re turning this thing. And as we turn higher, that’s going to be supportive to our markets. And so that’s not a negative, but that’s probably not enough to give us the old highs that we’re used to, you know, three or four years ago, but definitely a reason to start grinding higher. “

He says the key will be talks with Iran. “We’ve shipped a lot of our military over there, planes and ships and people, and obviously arming up for something. We’ve told everybody to get out of Iran and we’ve told people not to be flying over that countries and airlines not to be flying over that airspace. And so something’s going to go down there. And that could have a huge impact on energy prices. And that could be a catalyst that takes corn, beans because of bean oil, all the biofuels higher if crude oil goes higher. And obviously that would be key to our complex.”

USDA Ag Outlook Forum
The grain markets will also be gearing up next week for the USDA Ag Outlook Forum and possible acreage changes. So what is Frye expecting?

“We couldn’t believe how big the corn acreage was this last year, right? And we’re going to lose some of those corn acres, probably three, for at a minimum, maybe five or six even. Where do they go? They go to beans. And we’re going to lose some cotton acres, too, because beans going up and cotton is still on the bottom at 62 cents. You’re not going to plant cotton with the cost of inputs. So you’re going to have Mid -South and Delta farmers switching over to beans, maybe a million, million -half acres, at least down there. So beans are going to pick up a lot of acres, and you’re seeing that in the base price, And you’re seeing that in the Delta and the mid -south just because of input costs on cotton.”

So he expects corn and cotton acres to be down and soybeans up. This as the National Cotton Council predicted 8.99 million acres of cotton in 2026, down 3.2 % from last year.

Cattle Ended Mostly Lower Despite Higher Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures faded as the day wore on and ended mostly lower except for nearby contracts. Markets keep running into resistance on the charts but the markets also look tired according to Frye. Even Friday’s higher cash was unable to help the cattle futures. “I’ve talked to my producers, our client base, to get hedged, be defensive. I wasn’t defensive last year. I thought cattle prices, feeder cattle price would go higher and they did. We did have a few hedges from time to time last year that didn’t work out. The market was really strong, but we didn’t get locked into a price and stay with it. I think it’s a little bit different.”

Frye says the market rally may be nearing its end as markets top when the news is the best. “This cattle market in the monthly trend has been up for 63 months. That’s the longest duration going back to the early 1800s. And time usually ends a trend, not price. Yes, the price has gone up a long way. I think we’re 4 .4 times on price, the standard deviation, but we’re 6.7 times on the time interval. And usually anything past three, dangerous ground, we’re twice that in time. We’re one and a half times that in price. This market, I think, is getting more and more vulnerable.”

He says the fundamentals are bullish but markets top out on bullish news plus break evens are also starting to turn negative. “I mean, a guy is going to be very careful here because you could rack up four, six, $800 losses in these steers real quick if this market slips away from us. So just caution everybody, be defensive. Maybe we go higher. Maybe we keep going higher. But I think there’s a lot more risk to the downside than there is to be hedged to the upside.”

Cattle Need to Take Out Last Weeks Highs
The first technical objective cattle futures need to take out is week’s highs.

“And really beyond that, you’ve got to get above high that that break that came down so hard from October into November we got to get above the October high and if we do yeah we’re going to clear the way for you know $270 cattle and you know $390 feeders.”

Lean Hogs Close to Stabilizing?
Lean hogs have been down seven days in row so how much lower will the market go?

“Actually, I think we’re close. We can go a little lower on hogs, but I’m seeing another wave higher into the June time frame, the strong seasonal end of Memorial Day. And so I’d be friendly, hogs on this break. I mean, we’ve kept people hedged, but if a guy wanted to lift a hedge or roll up or buy some calls against those, I think we’re getting close near the time to do that. I like the seasonal into June, and I think hogs do have more ups than them for a new high just after this break is over.

U.S. Soybeans at a Crossroads: Navigating China Trade and Brazil’s Rise

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 23:56:18 GMT

Deglobalization is nothing new in agriculture — the U.S. has been losing export share for decades. As rapid expansion and modernization continue around the world, the ag industry is navigating new pressures and opportunities to remain competitive. Experts who work directly in global trade say American farmers need to recognize what’s changing and what it could mean for their operations.

China Trade Framework Details

U.S. farmers were excited when President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi struck a trade truce and framework in South Korea on Oct. 30, especially the 12 MMT of soybean purchases . However, the lack of clarity on if the commitments were for the calendar year or the marketing year left the market in disarray.

At the 2026 Top Producer Summit, Jiang Lyu, minister for economic and commercial affairs at the Chinese Embassy in the U.S., confirmed the 12 MMT is for the current marketing year.

“You do hear those numbers from President Trump, Secretary Bessent and others,” Lyu says. “All I can share with you is that China is pretty sincere in terms of having a relationship that is anchored on mutual respect, reciprocity and, most importantly, mutual benefit. We believe stability in this trade relationship, including in the ag trade, is very important, and we hope this mutually beneficial relationship will continue.”

To date, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says China has purchased 12 MMT, but the purchases have only been made by Sinograin and Cofco, which are government entities. The 13% reciprocal tariffs China still has on U.S. soybeans makes it unfeasible for private crushers to buy and is 10% higher than the tariffs on Brazilian soybeans. The question remains, when will China eliminate that tariff?

Lyu says he’s not sure on the timing, but that China would like to advance discussions between the two countries to the point that tariff could be eliminated. There is hope that can happen when the two leaders meet in April.

“This is, to borrow your word, a trade truce,” said Lyu. “So the truce has a time of one year. We would like this one year to be extended and preferably into eternity.”

Opportunities to Expand China Trade

The Chinese market is ripe for expanding trade, according to Lyu, through new areas of U.S. and China agricultural cooperation. He cites platforms, such as the China International Import Expo, will bring new opportunities for U.S. agriculture.

The China-U.S. economic and trade relations benefit both sides when they cooperate, adds the minister, but harm both when they are confrontational. However, he says the Chinese market has broad prospects and large capacity, and bilateral trade meets mutual needs.

China to Buy 8 MMT More Soybeans?

Meanwhile, President Trump posted via social media on Feb. 3 that China had agreed to buy another 8 MMT of old-crop soybeans from the U.S. Why would China purchase from the U.S. when Brazil’s soybeans are over $1 cheaper than U.S. soybeans?

While this doesn’t make economic sense, Susan Stroud with No Bull Ag says these political goodwill purchases are being made by government entities to put in their reserve. Lyu says the relationship needs to be stabilized before moving forward.

“China and the U.S. need to reposition their relationship overall so that we have a bigger-picture arrangement in which China is no longer considered as a rival competitor to an extent, not a rival or enemy of the United States,” Lyu says. “There are so many things happening here that also hamper China’s interest, such as Chinese exports into this country or the Chinese investment into this country, so we would like this relationship to be totally benign.”

Under the latest trade framework, China is also expected to buy 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans for the following three years.

“If you consider the potential for 25 million metric ton per year in three subsequent years that’s still well below the five-year average,” Stroud says. “China has yet to confirm any of these amounts that have been touted by Washington.”

There’s still the lingering question about what happens after that? The U.S. is already a secondary supplier of soybeans to China behind Brazil.

Brazil Primary Supplier of Soybeans to China

Brazil is producing over 6.5 billion bushels of soybeans annually, and Stroud says their rapid conversion of pastureland into soybean production has reshaped global flows.

“A 5% average increase in soy area annually has taken them from an emerging market to a global powerhouse in the blink of an eye,” she explains.

Brazil first outexported the U.S. in 2012. Today, exports more than double the U.S. program. Since the last trade war, Stroud says Brazil has added 30 million acres of soybeans, which is a harvested area larger than the top four U.S. soybean states combined in 2025.

“In the past 25 years, Brazil has accounted for half of all of soybean global area expansion,” Stroud says. “When you have a tremendous growth in production, naturally, you’re getting rid of it via export.”

Stroud says Brazil is actively making infrastructure improvements from farm to port to not only accommodate its expanding production but also improve efficiency. China actively has a hand in this as Brazil is their number one supplier of soybeans. On average, 50% of Brazil’s total soy demand is exported to China compared with one in four bushels of U.S. soybean demand.

Brazil Has Room to Expand Soybean Acres

Brazil has the potential to expand acreage by converting an available 70 million acres of degraded pasture to cropland. Aaron Edwards with Santos Springs LLC says Brazil’s growth is far from over.

“For every acre of row-crop land, there’s two acres of degraded pasture,” Edwards says. “Without any deforestation, a significant amount of that land could become row crops.”

Agronomically, he says, with a few tons of lime, phosphorus and minimum tillage, in two or three crops these fields could be producing on par with Midwestern “I” states.

“Every acre you bring into soybean production, about one-third also become double-crop corn or double-cropped cotton acres,” Edwards adds. “Brazil expansion is a bear.”

Then there’s the potential of improvements via irrigation. He’s hearing estimates of 10 million acres going under pivot within the next decade.

“It’s a tropical climate, so one acre of irrigation is three crops a year, depending on the mix, or seven crops in two years,” Edwards explains. “That right there is 30 million acres equivalent of production.”

Currently, they have less than 15% on-farm storage and that leaves potential for better margin management on the table.

“Basis swings on soybeans are $2 to $3,” Edwards says. “Margins can increase just by putting in on-farm storage and managing basis.”

It takes a massive amount of capital investment to drive acreage and yield growth, he adds, but it creates long-term supply pressure in global oilseeds.

The Brazil “Paradox:” Expansion Amid Bankruptcies

The paradox, Edwards says, is how does Brazil rapidly expand amid bankruptcies, but he thinks the two can coexist.

“The primary economic incentive isn’t operating margins — it’s land appreciation from converting pasture to cropland,” he says.

He thinks cash flows and aggressive expansion increase supply and lower prices, making periodic financial stress inevitable.

“The land appreciation of developing these lands is what’s causing the expansion, causing the bankruptcies and putting soybeans on the market at such a cheap price,” Edwards explains. “However, the microeconomic incentives of expansion are there as long as there’s land appreciation.”

Rethinking Global Competition in Soybeans

The U.S. still has structural advantages such as infrastructure and logistics, plus capital, strong risk management and supportive policy, according to Edwards.

“The U.S. is still the best place to do business, and at the end of the day, you run a business,” he adds. “We have better logistics, better capital markets, better infrastructure, better risk management tools and more supportive policy. Those are the things that allow you to run a successful business.”

With that said, Edwards says farmers might have to rethink global competition. This includes who produces the most soybeans, and who delivers the cheapest export supply? Where can farmers sustainably build profitable enterprises? He says leadership in volume doesn’t always equal leadership in farm profitability.

U.S. Needs to Pivot to Domestic Demand

The U.S. is already expanding crush a projected 30% in the next few years to process bean oil to meet the growing demand for low-carbon fuels. Stroud says that might be one of the best options for the U.S. to find more domestic demand and decrease its dependence on China and exports.

“Right now, we’re about 50% of the way there in the buildout,” Stroud says. “This marketing year, we are adding 115 million bushels of annual crush capacity. Compare that with typical exports to China in the 1-billion-bushel range and there’s really no comparison. But, we are moving the needle.”

She cautions this growth is policy dependent, but the U.S. is also exporting more soybean meal than ever before.

Argentina Viewpoint

Lee Trimmer with Green Shoots LLC has spent the last 25 years working in Argentina.

“We have great soils, we’re close to the ports and we can create crops at a better price than other places,” he says. “Honestly, it comes down to who can do it cheaper.”

However, there is a paradigm shift happening with Brazil becoming the largest exporter. As farmers, he says, they have had to reinvent their business model.

Trimmer says Argentina is also one of the most complex and unforgiving places to be a farmer. His plan was to buy machinery, build a storage facility, stay away from livestock, and try to start buying land. However, the business he built in Argentina was the exact opposite.

He says the key to staying competitive has been to find great mentors. He is also involved in a peer group in Argentina known as CREA in which farmers open up their farms to bring valuable experiences to other farmers. They talk about what works or doesn’t work on their farms and provide other advice.

“I think a lot of it has to come down to farmer savvy, education, getting to know your peers, finding niches and getting ideas from other producers,” Trimmer says.

He told farmers at Top Producer Summit they can’t do anything about trade wars with China or Brazil increasing exports every year. But they can look to their own farms and make changes that open up new opportunities.

“I encourage farmers to put time and money into educating themselves, not just on producing more bushels. Dig down deeper to make your farm and legacy resilient for the future,” he says.

Grains Rally Wednesday: What was the Catalyst and Do Funds Keep Buying?

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 22:06:50 GMT

Grain markets ended higher on Wednesday as well as cattle with only hogs lower on the day.

Grain Markets Surge on Money Flow
Grains markets ended higher across the complex, driven mostly by money flow according to Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing. He says the ICE U.S. Dollar Index earlier this week dropped to a four-year low when President Trump said he was comfortable with the depreciation of the U.S. dollar because it is good for U.S. businesses. That attracted some fund and speculative buying to the grain markets he says. “That’s a very big change from the previous policy, but it seemed to catch the attention of the trade here and we saw that translated into a number of commodities on Wednesday, not just the grain complex, but notable fund buying in the grains with, you know, very little underlying change in the fundamentals. So, it’s nice to see that money flow pick up.”

Bessent, speaking in an interview with CNBC Wednesday, said “the U.S. always has a strong dollar policy.” He also said the U.S. was “absolutely not” intervening in the Japanese currency market, rejecting speculation that had been building since Friday. He says comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the Trump administration supports a stronger U.S. currency helped provide some stabilization.

Will the Funds Continue to Buy?
The grains saw the start of a chart breakout with March soybean futures closing above the 200-day moving average and March corn ended above the 100-day moving average. So will this attract an additional fund buying? Chatterton says, “The is the million dollar question.”

FOMC Meeting Concludes With No Rate Change
The FOMC meeting concluded on Wednesday with no change in interest rates. Chatterton says while that was expected the market was watching for any sign of change in Fed Chairman Powell’s stance. Powell says inflation remains somewhat elevated but the overall tone seems to suggest a longer pause verses easing rates.

Did Biofuels News Help Push the Grain Markets?
President Trump also threw his support behind year-round E15 while speaking in Iowa on Tuesday and said he had directed Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson to come up with compromise legislation and get the bill passed in Congress so he could immediately sign it. While being able to sell E15 across the U.S. during the summer months would be helpful, Chatterton says this is not a mandate, it is voluntary. “A mandatory E15 push might be worth 2.5 billion bu., a less voluntary push probably something more in the 200 to 350 million bu.-per-year range,” he explains.

Meanwhile, hope of more certainty for biofuels policy is supportive for soybeans and bean oil according to Chatterton. The Office of Management and Budget has finalized the 45Z proposal and opened it for comment. The details could be released any day now. Plus, EPA has finished the comment period on the Renewable Volume Obligations and should provide blending volumes by late February to early March.

Weather Concerns?
Hot and dry conditions continue in areas of Central and Southern Argentina and far Southern Brazil. So is the corn or soybean market adding any risk premium as a result? Chatterton says, “There’s not much weather premium in this market because it’s being outweighed by the strength of the crop in the rest of Brazil.” While there have been some private forecasts lowering the Argentina crops those have been more than offset by the Brazilian production estimates which continue to rise. The latest from Safras y Mercado put the Brazil soybean crop at a record 183.8 MMT.

Meanwhile, another Arctic blast is predicted for winter wheat areas in the U.S. lending to some concerns about winter kill in areas that did not receive snow cover. Chatterton says the areas are small and so it won’t have much of a market impact and added that its difficult to assess damage to the crop until it breaks dormancy. So, he is chalking up the rally in wheat on Wednesday to fund short covering and U.S. wheat prices are running at a $130 per ton premium to the rest of the world which will make the U.S. no longer competitive.

Cattle Rebound Ahead of Report, Cash News
Live cattle futures saw some early pressure and profit taking but still have been unable to take out the January highs on the charts basis April. However, the March feeder cattle broke above resistance and made new highs for the move. Chatterton says the market is positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle Inventory report and this week’s cash trade. Cash news has been light and may wait until after the report but with higher bids this week there is hope for higher cash sales. The cold weather has also been supportive for the market as it is lowering performance and trimming the record heavy carcass weights. Still, he thinks the live cattle market will need a bullish report that does not indicate herd rebuilding to break out of the current trading range.

Lean Hogs See Profit Taking
Lean hog futures set back on profit taking after hitting new contract highs in the April and many other months on Tuesday. He says the funds have been long in the hog market and likely needed to take a break from buying. The cash trade has been advancing though so the rally may be able to resume.

Grain Markets Rally on Money Flow: Can They Stage a Chart Breakout?

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 16:10:16 GMT

Grains started sharply higher on Wednesday with cattle and hogs mostly lower.

Soybeans Add South America Weather Premium
Soybeans were higher on Wednesday morning with double digit gains. Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says soybeans were getting a push from South American weather. Hot dry conditions have persisted in Argentina but the emerging story is FOB values in Brazil are rising as there are reports of problems moving soybeans out of the ports. The higher values are lifting U.S. prices.

Biofuels Hopes
The soybeans are also getting help from the soybean oil market which is building in optimism regarding biofuels policy according to Gieseke. The EPA has closed the comment period for the RVOs and so those blending mandates should be released late February to early March. The Office of Management and Budget has also completed its proposal on the 45Z tax credit which will now go through a 60 day comment period. However, biofuels officials say they expect those rules could be finalized by the end of March. Gieseke says this optimism has given the soybean oil market new life and it is staging a chart breakout.

Soybeans Breaking Out Technically?
Soybeans are finally above the 200-day moving average on the March contract and a close above this level could bring in some fund buying. Some of the deferred contracts are also above the $11 mark.

Corn Follows Wheat, Gets E15 Boost?
Corn futures are seeing spillover support from soybeans and more importantly wheat according to Gieseke. However, President Trump’s speech in Iowa Tuesday included comments about his support for year-round E15 and he says leaders in the Senate and House are close to getting a bill ready to be voted on. When that happens Trump said he will sign it immediately.

Corn Seeing Strong Export Demand, Is China Buying?
Corn continues to see record export demand and Gieseke says the U.S. has seen it’s share of the global corn export market expand to over 50% which goes along with the record pace being set. China has also been buying European wheat due to problems with the quality of their corn which has aflatoxins. So, could this push China into the U.S. corn market? There have been several flash sales to unknown destinations the past few weeks and he thinks its possible if China isn’t buying U.S. corn they may need to down the road.

Wheat Adds Weather Premium
Winter wheat futures were also rallying in an attempt to add weather premium. Another Arctic blast is expected to hit winter wheat growing areas further increasing concerns about winter kill in that crop. Funds are a combined short in that market (futures only) of over 126,000 contracts and so if the market continues to move through chart resistance areas it could spark a larger short covering rally. Currently, he sees $5.40 as a level that will be difficult to take out in the hard red winter wheat futures.

FOMC Monetary Policy Impacting Commodity Sector
Gieseke says the Federal Reserve announced in October they would be pausing quantitative tightening and instead would be purchasing treasuries as part of quantitative easing. He says since that time the CRB Index, which tracks commodities, has been steadily rising. He says monetary policy change has been driving money into commodities like precious metals, with traders also going short on the U.S. dollar index which has hit a four year low. This could be driving some money flow into the grain markets and if that continues it could finally help the grain markets break out of their trading ranges and start a larger rally.

Cattle Pause Ahead of Report
Cattle futures were starting out lower for a second day with the market consolidating under chart resistance hit earlier this week. The market is waiting for cash direction and the USDA Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Report on Friday.

Soybeans Bounce on Biofuels Hopes: Corn and Cattle Consolidate

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 21:32:07 GMT

Soybeans and bean oil bounced on Tuesday with corn lower and wheat ending mixed. Cattle were mostly lower as well as milk futures.

Soybeans and Bean Oil Bounce on Biofuels Hopes
Soybeans and soybean oil saw a higher day on Tuesday driven by hopes President Trump would make a biofuels policy announcement regarding 45Z or the RVO proposal while speaking in Iowa after the market close. Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says the market is looking for another demand story with exports running behind a year ago and China completing their 12 MMT soybean purchase agreement.

China Done Buying U.S. Soybeans?
Blohm says China may be done buying U.S. soybeans until at least August as that is their normal seasonal pattern. Currently they have switched over buying cheaper Brazil soybeans as the new harvest is coming to market. News reports quoted private China buyers that stated China had bought 25 cargoes of Brazil beans for March and April delivery. When China comes back to the U.S. for soybeans it is unclear if they will be working on the 25 MMT purchase commitments or not. Currently, Blohm is skeptical about China’s willingness to buy 25 MMT in the next year.

South American Crop Estimates Being Watched
Hot dry conditions in parts of Argentina have been watched by the markets and at least some private estimates are starting to recognize some yield loss as a result. Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentina corn and soybean estimates by 2 MMT. Meanwhile, he and other private firms continue to inch up the Brazilian crop and he raised his production estimate 1 MMT to 179 MMT while AgRural’s latest forecast is at 181 MMT. So Blohm says there will need to be more sustained weather stress and production loss to really lower the crop size and get the markets attention.

Soybeans Still in a Trading Range
The technical picture for soybeans continues to show the market struggling to get through the 200-day moving average resistance area on the charts basis March and Blohm says she doesn’t see too much that can change that in the near term.

Corn Drifts Despite Strong Export Demand
Corn futures drifted on Tuesday unable to follow the strength in the soybean market. Blohm says it was also disappointing that a flash sale of 4.33 million bu. of corn sold to unknown destinations was unable to support the corn market. There was also a sale of 12 million bu. sale of sorghum to unknown destinations, one of the largest single buys in nearly a decade. Could this be China? She says it is very likely China is behind the sorghum purchase but she thinks they could even be buying corn.

Corn Sees Range Bound Trade
Corn has also been trading in a new lower price range since the January WASDE report. Blohm says the market is stuck between strong support at $4.10 and resistance in the $4.30 to $4.35 area. She says corn may be unable to break above that level without a problem with the second crop corn in Brazil but that is going to be a couple of months down the road. The bottom side of the trading range should be well supported by strong end user demand, especially exports.

Wheat Also Stuck
Wheat futures traded both sides of steady Tuesday but continue to consolidate under last week’s highs. The market saw some short covering with concerns about winter kill but that fear has eroded and so will the market prices according to Blohm. She says demand has been strong on the export front but not strong enough to chew through burdensome global supplies.

Cattle Consolidate Ahead of Report, Cash
Cattle futures consolidated under Monday’s highs which served as technical resistance on the charts. The market may trade sideways awaiting higher cash trade again this week and ahead of the USDA Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Report. The bulls will be looking for confirmation of the tight supplies but also news of any herd rebuilding on the horizon.

Milk Futures Pause After Limit Up Move
Class 3 milk futures were slightly lower on Tuesday, consolidating after some limit up moves on Monday. Blohm says the market rallied with some better prices for cash butter and cheese. She says futures have also priced in USDA’s production increases that have weighed on the market the last few reports. However, the upside is limited from here in the market.

Soybeans Pop on 45Z Hopes: Corn, Wheat and Cattle Consolidate Tuesday

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 16:59:05 GMT

Soybeans and bean oil were higher on Tuesday morning with wheat and corn weak. Cattle saw some early pressure with hogs rebounding.

Soybeans and Bean Oil Rally
Soybeans and bean oil were slightly higher on Tuesday morning with hopes President Trump may make an announcement or at least talk positive about the 45Z program according to Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity. News reports on Monday indicated the Office of Management and Budget had finalized the 45Z rules and so an announcement is at least close.

South American Crop Watch
The soybean market is also watching the South American weather forecasts and crop estimates. Schultz says there has been some lingering hot dry conditions in Argentina but only Southern Brazil is in jeaopardy of seeing any production problems due to the lack of moisture. Overall, he thinks the weather would need to stay hot and dry in Argentina for another two to three weeks to see a bigger than 2 MMT cut to Argentina production.

Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentina soybean estimate by 2 MMT to 48 MMT and on corn lowered his projection by 2 MMT to 54 MMT. For Brazil he raised soybean production 1 MMT to 179 MMT and left his corn estimate unchanged at 137 MMT. Meanwhile, AgRural raised Brazil’s soybean crop by 600,000 MT to 181 MMT and the corn crop the same amount to 136.6 MMT.

China Buying Brazil Soybeans
News reports indicate China is in the market buying cheaper Brazilian soybeans and has booked 25 cargoes for March/ April delivery. Schultz says that makes sense with the record crop coming to market from Brazil and with China reaching its 12 MMT U.S. purchase commitment. He thinks China is likely to be out of the U.S. soybean market now until at least fall when they start buying for their next 25 MMT purchase agreement.

Soybean Technical Action is Poor
On Monday soybeans made three week highs before hitting chart resistance and reversing to score an outside day lower. Schultz says this was poor technical action and March soybeans cannot take out or at least close above the 200-day moving average for any sustained period. He thinks it would take some type of weather problem in South America to change that.

Corn and Wheat Remove Weather Premium
Despite a flash sale of 4.33 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations on Tuesday morning the corn market was lower. The wheat market was also serving as an anchor for corn similar to Monday’s action. Plus, both markets hit chart resistance and failed which triggered some speculative profit taking. The wheat market was also removing weather premium as many of the winter wheat areas that received bitterly cold temperatures also saw insulating snow. For the corn market the weather slowed marketing of grain and ethanol plants also slowed production and instead sold natural gas on the market. That situation was also normalizing on Tuesday and so the markets had a weaker underdone.

Cattle Consolidate Awaiting Cash
Cattle futures were mostly lower on Tuesday morning as the market was consolidating after hitting technical resistance areas on the charts and failing. Schultz says the futures will need to see higher cash trade again this week to make it through those chart areas. He thinks beef demand has been compromised with Winter Storm Fern closing restaurants. However, the cold weather is likely to have stressed cattle and performance which will trim carcass weights.

Lean Hog Futures Resilient
Lean hogs opened lower on Tuesday but quickly found their footing. Schultz says the resilience of the market has been impressive. He thinks its tied to solid demand but also disease problems that will likely mean a marketing hole in the summer time period. However, even the April contract hit new contract highs on Monday.

China Turning to Purchasing Cheaper Brazilian Soybeans

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 12:57:14 GMT

China has ramped up its orders for Brazilian cargoes of soybeans after meeting an initial shipment volume from the U.S. as part of a trade truce with Washington reached last fall. “In the past week, importers have booked at least 25 cargoes of the beans for loading mainly in March and April, driven by margins, according to traders with knowledge of the deals. At the same time, state-owned companies have appeared to refrain from taking U.S. cargoes, said the people, who declined to be named as they were not authorized to talk to the media,” Bloomberg reported. China has purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the last three months, meeting a commitment outlined by the Trump administration in November. “It makes complete sense to step up purchases of Brazilian soybeans after meeting the U.S. pledge,” said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures Co. “Brazilian supplies are much cheaper.” Over the longer term, the U.S. said China has committed to buying at least 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, and the nation may come back for more U.S. soybean cargoes later this year. Read the latest Pro Farmer news.

Can Soybeans Rally to $11 Bidding for Acres?

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 16:29:21 GMT

Grains futures were higher early Thursday led by soybeans. Cattle were mixed with hogs higher.

Soybeans Continue Rally Bidding for Acres
Soybeans continued to rally on Thursday. Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says this isn’t just short covering. He doesn’t think the market is that concerned about South American weather as the dryness is mostly confined to Argentina and may not have a big impact on Brazilian production. Instead he believes the markets is realizing USDA’s 1.525 billion bu. export estimate is too low and is now bidding for soybean acres with higher prices. USDA reported another flash sale of 7.1 million bu. of beans to unknown destinations again Thursday morning.

Corn Soybean Ratio Tipping Towards Soybeans
Akre says analysis of the corn soybean price ratio shows it currently at 2.4 to 1 which would favor soybeans. However, he thinks corn acreage for 2026 will be down about 3.5 million acres at 95 million acres, which is the same as S&P Global’s latest forecast. Soybean acreage could be up over 3 million acres but that may not be enough with the current export and crush demand. Currently S&P Global is estimating soybean acres will rise 2.3 million to 84.5 million.

Akre says their estimate is based on the current corn to soybean price and crop insurance guarantee ratios, which influences acres and that was true in 2025. “So that ratio has a ten year average of about 2.4 last year following the tariff threats on China. The market knew that we weren’t going to be exporting a lot of beans to China. So that ratio fell down to about 2.25 and that’s when we saw acres explode up to that 98 million acre mark. Here this week, that ratio is basically went from 2.3 up to 2.4. So right near average and above 2.4 is where we start to see soybeans really start to gain more market share but the change hasn’t been that big.”

So with soybean carryout tight at 350 million bushels and with improved exports, he thinks the soybean market may need to rally soon to attract more acres “But it’s not only what soybeans does. If corn just stays at $4.20 like it’s done over the past week. I don’t think soybeans are going to have to work that hard. You get pushing above $11 and I think the market, I think people are going to start planting more soybeans pretty quickly. Once that happens, especially if that ratio gets to 2.5, 2.6 we’ve seen that happen earlier in the 2020s, when there was a lot of hype and a lot of exports with the phase one trade agreement, a lot of hype with crush, we saw a lot of soybean acres.” That corn soybean price ratio will be reinforced with the spring crop insurance price guarantees being set during February.

Can Soybeans Get Above $11?
So what price level will producers need to see to add soybeans acres in 2026? Akre says the market will need to get above $11 and he thinks that is possible in the near term as farmers are making those decisions right now. Technically, the market is running up into chart resistance with march needing to clear the $10.70 mark and close above it to extend the rally.

China Done Buying Soybeans or Are They Buying More?
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated this week that China has met its 12 MMT purchase requirement from the U.S. However, Akre says even when he includes business to unknown destinations he doesn’t come up with a total that large for China exports. The other question will be once China gets to 12 MMT will they just shut off their buying and only purchase cheaper Brazilian soybeans? Akre says China may come back in by August like they normally do but he thinks that will be the start of the next round of purchases that will be included in the 25 MMT for the following year. Whether or not China will uphold that entire commitment is still yet to be seen according to Akre.

Will Corn Follow Soybeans?
If soybeans rally over $11 will corn need to follow to hold on to acres? Akre thinks with a 17 billion bu. crop and ending stocks over 2.2 billion bu. the market will be comfortable hovering around the $4.20 mark for a while. So far March corn has seen the rallies capped at $4.25 as farmer selling has picked up at those levels.

Can Wheat Sustain a Rally?
Winter wheat futures are higher trying to follow corn and seeing some short covering but Akre doesn’t think the market is really that concerned about the bitterly cold weather in winter wheat areas as there is snow that will accompany the cold blast. He says wheat will struggle to maintain any gains as Akre says global supplies are just too burdensome for the market and provide too much competition for the U.S. While export demand is running 20% ahead of last year, he says it is just not enough to offset the big supplies.

Cattle Chop Ahead of Cattle on Feed
Cattle futures were mixed early chopping ahead of cash direction and the UDSA Cattle on Feed Report. Akre says cattle continue to trade within last week’s trading ranges and will likely do so until the market sees higher cash or confirmation of tight placements.

Lean Hogs Make New Highs
Lean hog futures continued to rally with deferred contracts hitting new contract highs. Akre says the market has been pulled up by the rising cash market and fund buying. However, with the summer months closing in on $110 he thinks there will soon be some hedge pressure that will set back the market.

Soybeans Rally on China Export Hopes, SA Wx: Funds Sell Corn and Wheat

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 21:46:32 GMT

Soybeans end higher Wednesday with corn and wheat lower. Livestock rally.

Soybeans See Gains Wednesday
Soybeans rallied on Wednesday with help from short covering, a sharp rally in bean oil and the market was also adding some weather premium. Greg McBride with Allendale, Inc. says hot, dry weather is expected in much of Argentina and Southern Brazil in the next 10 days and it is hitting at the critical pod filling stage for some of the soybean crop.

Trade News Supportive for Soybeans?
Soybeans may have seen a little push from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s comments that talks were possible with China before President Trump meets with Chinese President Xi in April. He also suggested that President Trump is encouraging more soybean purchases despite the fact China has reached the 12 MMT of export business it agreed to in late October. McBride is suspect that China is done buying for now and will switch over to cheaper Brazilian soybeans, unless they sense there is a bigger weather problem. He thinks China will get back into a more normal buying pattern.

Soybeans Can’t Close Above Moving Averages
Despite the higher day, March soybeans seem unable to close above key 10 and 20 day moving averages. For March the 20-day is at $10.58 1/4. McBride says the market will need to see a decisive close above this mark to break out of this sideways trading range.

President Trump Backs Down on EU Tariffs
After the close, President Trump announced he was canceling his threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight EU countries if Denmark refused to sell Greenland. Instead, Trump posted via social media that he and NATO’s Rutte agreed to ‘framework of a future deal’ on the Arctic. McBride says this should be positive for especially soybeans since the EU had been a strong buyer of U.S. product when China had backed away from the market. The stock market rallied after the announcement, regaining most of what was lost on Tuesday.

Corn Fails at Resistance...Again
Corn futures started higher on Wednesday, following soybeans, but saw fund and technical selling as it failed at chart resistance again at $4.25 on the March contract. This also comes despite more flash export sales announcements with Columbia buying 5.9 million bu. and 7.7 million bu. being bought by unknown destinations. McBride says despite strong demand corn looks range bound through at least March as there are unlikely to be any real catalysts to rally the market.

Wheat Also Sees Technical Selling
Winter wheat futures also saw a higher overnight session and open but failed at chart resistance and that brought technical selling back into the market. McBride says wheat is struggling with big global supplies and is ignoring the bitterly cold weather forecasts for the Black Sea and U.S. Plains. “Wheat has nine lives and the funds are short in the market and like being short wheat,” he says.

Cattle Continue Recovery
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher again still recovering from last Friday’s huge selloff triggered by New World Screwworm fears and with help from the stabilization of the financial markets. However, the futures are still trading under last week’s highs and may stay within that range until either the cash trade develops or until after the USDA Cattle of Feed Report release. Early trade guesses show sharply lower placements which should be a good reminder of the tight inventory. If the market gets confirmation of that with a bullish report and steady to higher cash trade, the market could take out last week’s highs and add to the rally.

McBride says the two black swans the market is watching for include a reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports and the influx of beef imports. USDA estimates imports will be up 50 million pounds in 2026 as the administration attempts to lower beef prices. The key will be the timing of those imports.

Grains Bounce but Can the Market Build on It: Cattle Collapse on NWS Fear

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 22:29:52 GMT

Grains and hogs end higher on Friday with cattle sharply lower.

Grains See Technical Bounce, End User Buying
Grain markets ended higher on Friday with technical buying and short covering. However, Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with prices plunging at the beginning of the week in response to the bearish USDA report, the lower price levels stimulated end user buying. “We’ve had very good end user buying for sure. I think a lot of I think the market is questioning some of the supplies that came out on this report, especially the corn numbers. I think a lot of pretty good data that we have suggests they might be too high on the corn numbers. And so I think because of some of the distrust over the legitimacy of the USDA numbers. The value buying was brought into the market.”

USDA reported additional flash sales for corn of 11.7 million bu to unknown destinations and 4.7 million bu. sold to Japan for the 2025-26 marketing year. That followed a string of daily export sales announcements this week for both corn and soybeans.

Are the Lows in the Corn Market?
Corn was down 21 cents for the week on the March contract but with the strong finish to the week Hackett is confident some long term lows may have been established and the August lows will hold. However, corn has effectively carved out a new lower trading range and he says upside is going to be limited without some type of catalyst.

“I really think Monday was anticlimactic. Normally when you have a large supply report like that, if the market truly embraces and believes it, you would typically get follow through selling over the next couple of days. We did not see that. And the fact that we did not see that means that the market pretty much, in my opinion, in our opinion, has priced all that large supply numbers in on the balance sheets. And I think now we’re going to start chipping away from better demand, from some weather issues, acreage battles that are going to be talking about. So maybe some quarterly, quarterly grain stocks, adjustments in the market I think is moving beyond that supply, moving ahead and start looking at what could go wrong here with those large numbers. What is the market not considering. Have they overpriced to the downside here?”

Are Soybeans Forging a Double Bottom Low?
March soybeans lost a nickel on the week and have also carved out a new trading range with March making a double bottom at the January low of $10.38. Unlike corn, he thinks there is still some downside risk for soybeans with the record crop being harvested in South America. “When Brazil’s crop comes to market there will be South American hedge pressure weighing on the market. “That will also coincide with China switching their soybean buying over to Brazil,” he adds.

Wheat Adds Weather Premium
Hackett says the wheat market was also adding some weather premium with concerns about frigid temperatures in U.S. winter wheat area but more importantly a forecasted cold snap for Ukraine and Russia. He says that sparked some short covering by the funds as well.

Cotton Higher for the Week: Can It Stage a Bigger Rally?
The cotton market was slightly higher for the week but has been slow to stage a bigger rally despite slightly bullish USDA report data and a marketing year high on exports this week. USDA lowered cotton production to 13.9 million bales and ending stocks were cut 300,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. Hackett thinks eventually the market will stage a bigger rally because historically low acreage cannot be sustained for two years in a row. However, he does admit one headwind will be crude oil prices under the $60 mark.

Cattle Collapse on Another NWS Rumor
Live and feeder cattle futures collapsed on Friday on another unconfirmed rumor of New World Screwworm (NWS) in New Mexico. NCBA officials confirmed there was no case in the U.S. However, Hackett says the AI generated trading systems unfortunately tanked the market on Friday. He says those markets were overbought, especially the feeder cattle futures, and had hit some technical chart resistance and so there was some profit taking as well or fund long liquidation that added pressure to the market.

The lower futures led to only steady cash in the fed markets which was also a disappointment. Southern deals were mostly $233 with the Northern dressed market at $365 and live sales prices from $230 to $233. Hackett says while boxed beef values have been moving higher he is disappointed that the Choice values are only around $360 which may be limiting the upside in the futures as well.

The New Beef Powerhouse? As Brazil Overtakes the U.S., Here’s What It Means

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 21:54:26 GMT

The global beef landscape is witnessing a historic changing of the guard. According to recent reporting from Reuters , Brazil has officially surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading beef producer.

While the U.S. industry grapples with a significant herd contraction, Brazil’s production has defied earlier bearish forecasts to take the top spot on the global stage.

In 2025, U.S. beef production fell by 3.9%, dropping to 11.8 million tons. In stark contrast, Brazil’s production, which analysts at Rabobank previously expected to decline, surged by 0.5% to reach 12.5 million tons in carcass weight equivalent.

And as Mike North of Ever.ag and Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, told “U.S. Farm Report,” Brazil’s growth isn’t a shock, but it is something that is changing the global dynamics of the beef industry.

The Feed Engine: Why Brazil’s Growth Isn’t a Shock

For many in the industry, Brazil’s ascent is the result of years of aggressive agricultural expansion. Mike North, of Ever.ag, notes the foundation of Brazil’s livestock success is its massive grain production capacity.

“Livestock industries depend on the availability of feed, and let’s look at the track record,” North explains. “They’re continuing to grow bigger and bigger crops each year. As we look at their exports, yes, they’ve become a growing partner to China, especially in our absence, but they have enough there to also feed a growing livestock industry.”

North points out Brazil’s “double-crop” system, planting soybeans followed immediately by a second crop of corn (safrinha), has created a consistent, high-volume feed supply that the U.S. is finding harder to compete with.

“The writing’s kind of been on the wall as they grow more and more soybeans and then backfill that during the second crop with more and more corn,” North says. “The gates are open, and they walk through them. This doesn’t come as a shock.”

However, North warns that volume isn’t everything. Brazil still faces hurdles in global perception.

“It’ll be an interesting thing to see what they do as those cattle leave the feedlot, go to processing, and whether or not they can meet all the phytosanitary concerns that the world demands as that meat leaves the country,” he explains.

A Shift in Market Sentiment: From Bullish to Neutral

For the past several years, Basse has been one of the most vocal bulls in the cattle market. However, the combination of Brazil’s dominance and shifting domestic factors has caused him to re-evaluate his position.

“I’ve been bullish for about the last four years,” Basse admits, “but I’m starting to see where there’s some solutions to the tightness in the beef market in particular. My outlook is starting to be a little more neutral, or let’s say, in a wide-swinging market.”

Basse notes international beef is increasingly filling the void left by the shrinking U.S. herd. Imports from Brazil and Australia are becoming a “solution” to high domestic prices, potentially capping the market’s upside.

“As you look at Australian and Brazilian imports of beef, it is going to be something that will keep this market under the high that we scored last October,” Basse says. “I’d be a little careful here on feeders, because while people are still optimistic, I’m becoming less bullish of cattle just based on imports.”

The “Ozempic” Factor and the Dairy Influence on Supply

Beyond international trade, Basse says internal shifts in the U.S. protein market are also underway. Interestingly, he says that while general protein demand remains high, partially influenced by health trends and weight-loss medications like Ozempic, the U.S. is finding new ways to supplement beef supplies.

“As we look at the dairy herd, we’re keeping back numbers,” Basse says. “We’re seeing more cross-calves being produced by the dairy industry. Between that and the expansion of imports into the United States, the supply picture is changing.”

Looking Toward the Horizon

While Brazil’s production numbers are the headline, several wild cards remain for 2025. Basse points to the upcoming USDA inventory report as a critical data point that will determine the next leg of the market. Additionally, biological threats remain a concern for the coming year.

“Screwworm is something we’ll have to deal with as we turn the page to April or May of next year,” Basse cautions.

For now, the U.S. cattle industry finds itself in a period of transition, watching a southern competitor take the lead while navigating a domestic market that might have already seen its historical highs. Yet, as the U.S. cattle herd remains tight, Brazil could continue to outproduce the U.S., just based on the fact it will take years for the U.S. to rebuild the cattle herd. And some economists think the herd might never get back to cattle numbers the U.S. saw at its highs.

Grains Fade Ahead of USDA Data Dump: China, Export Disappointment

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 21:23:53 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended mostly lower on Thursday with wheat mixed. Cattle and hogs finished higher.

Soybeans Fade
Soybeans ended lower on Thursday after running up into chart resistance in the March around the 200-day moving average and failing. Tommy Grisafi with Nesvick Trading says the market also seemed disappointed with the lack of China export business confirmed in the flash report. USDA reported 4.85 million bu. Thursday morning but trade talk Wednesday put totals at another eight to ten cargoes. Export sales for the week ended Jan. 1 were also at 32.3 million bu. and the cumulative sales are running 29% behind last year. China has bought an estimated 10 MMT of the 12 MMT commitment and exports are still lagging and may not be able to catch up. “So we had this business from China. We had the beans to sell them and sold them 12 MMT but this 25 MMT every year for three years, my sources say it’s not going to happen. What the what the administration says and what China does are two different things.”

South American Crop Coming
Grisafi says South America’s crop is also right around the corner and looks to be a monster, so soon China will be buying cheaper soybeans from Brazil and the market knows that. “Plus, I imagine you’re starting to see South American hedging hitting that March and May contract.” Weather has also been favorable for all but Southern Argentina and Northeast Brazil. “I would love to have a South American weather market and get our markets propped up and get some good hedges or sales on for 2026 but right now, it’s not only us who are selling crops below our cost of production, but other countries around the world are going to be leaking out this grain. And you know how they do it in South America, a lot of it goes to town right at harvest, and they’re going to need the cash flow just like everyone else,” he adds.

Corn Fades With Soybeans, Poor Exports
Corn saw early strength with higher wheat but as soybeans faded that pulled corn down slightly into the close. The market also seemed to be discouraged by the marketing year low for weekly exports which came in at 14.9 million bu. Even though it was a holiday week the market was anticipating more. Accumulated export pace also fell to only 30% above a year ago.

Grains See Pre-Report Positioning
Grisafi says the grain markets were also seeing some positioning ahead of the January USDA reports. The focus will be on yield but the average trade guess is only 2 bu. below last month at 184 bu. per acre and ending stocks are only expected to be down 43 million bu. to just under 2.0 billion. He says the cut will need to be bigger than that to break corn out of its sideways trading range especially as demand could be lowered by USDA to offset those cuts. Feed and residual has been arguably too high especially with border closed to Mexican feeder cattle and a 70 year low in the cattle herd.

“I think if corn yields just go down a little, I don’t think you’ll see much of a positive reaction. You could see a negative reaction. I’d love to see a four or five bushels come off the corn, get a nice healthy rally. We know we have nice demand under the corn market. If we have a negative number I think you’ll see it well supported and it will help the export program. There are a whole bunch of people who would love to buy corn fifteen twenty lower.” Until then he says the basis is doing the work when end users need product.

For soybeans average trade guesses are less than a half bushel yield cut at 52.7 bu. per acre, but the big question will be whether or not USDA lowers export demand with the current slow pace of sales, which even include China.

Grisafi is skeptical about the accuracy of the reports with the government show down. “Note the USDA was closed for over 45 days. I’m not so sure how pure this data is.”

Winter Wheat Ends Mixed: Seedings and Conditions in Focus
USDA will also provide winter wheat seedings and currently estimates are 800,000 to 900,000 acres lower than a year ago. However, with prices not far off of four year lows it seems like seedings estimate may be too high. “Wheat growers are being punished with these low prices. They’re being asked politely, by losing money to go plant something else. Now, what those acres go into, it’ll be interesting. But if we’re going to plant less wheat, it would make me think we’re going to plant more corn in 2026 or some other crop. So we’ll see how that rotates out. But, very tough for the wheat growers and even with the government sending this money that should start rolling out in the next six weeks, it’s just not going to be enough.”

Should Wheat Be Adding Risk Premium?
The condition of the crop is currently in question, says Grisafi, with the above normal temperatures and lower state crop ratings on Monday. So does the market need to add some weather premium? And what about risk premium tied to geopolitical concerns? Grisafi says,"Don’t forget, Russia is still invading Ukraine and that adds tension in the wheat market and it just adds an overall strain to world markets.”

Index Fund Rebalancing
Rebalancing by the long only index funds began on Thursday. Grisafi says there was some jockeying of positions in the grain markets today as a result and he expects that to continue as the reallocation of portfolios is expected to last for five sessions. We have a little buying right now with some rebalancing. They’re buying about 10,000 corn a day, maybe a little in beans. It’s not going to move us a dollar but that’s supportive.”

Markets Await SCOTUS Ruling on Tariffs
The entire market place is also awaiting the SCOTUS ruling on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. Grisafi says if the ruling goes against the administration and the U.S. is forced to pay back the tariff money it could upset the market. “The betting markets are giving it a 75% chance that these tariffs are overturned,” he says. And he points out that the administration has been front running the ruling trying to get trade deals done. “If you notice one thing out of the Trump administration, they’ve moved very fast the last six, eight weeks to try to get deals done with people or try to pretend we got deals done with people. So if you watch Ag Secretary Rollins, she’s like, we got a great deal done with Japan. We got a great deal done with China. If you could read between the lines, all the countries agreed to buy what they normally buy it. The whole thing looks like a card trick to me.,” he adds.

Cattle Futures Recover
Live and feeder cattle futures saw two-sided trade early but managed to recover into the close. Funds have been buying on breaks but Grisafi says the market has been pushed by strong cash trade for both fed and feeder cattle and calves. Some fed cash trade developed in the North after the close at $360 to mostly $365 dressed, up $5 from last week’s weighted averages.

However, feeders have been the leaders with eye popping prices at sale barns across the country. That’s kept the feeder cattle futures well supported on any breaks. Grisafi thinks this will continue as supplies will remain tight and there have been new cases of New World Screwworm (NWS) in Mexico that will likely the border closed to imports.

Grains Square Pre-Report as Export News Fails to Impress Thursday

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 16:22:06 GMT

Grains are trading mixed on Thursday morning with corn and wheat slightly higher, soybeans lower. Cattle have traded 2-sided with hogs higher.

Grains Mixed Ahead of USDA Reports
The grain markets are mixed squaring ahead of the USDA reports on Monday. DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says that could keep the markets quiet the next few sessions. Early trade estimates for corn yield are around 184 bu. per acre, so down only around 2 bu. although Bosse is more bullish at around 180 to 181. The fear is even if USDA lowers yield it will have to be substantial as the agency may offset the cut by lowering feed and residual. For soybeans the trade is expected a less than 1 bu. cut in yield at 52.7 bu. and has ending stocks nearly unchanged at 294 million bu. However, that assumes USDA will leave demand nearly unchanged from December. Bosse doesn’t think that is realistic considering the accumulated exports are still running nearly 30% behind last year.

Could USDA Provide a Bullish Surprise?
Bosse says corn has been sideways for several weeks waiting for the January WASDE but the agency will need to lower yield by more than the 2 bu. the trade is expecting to produce any fireworks. Yet he points out, “Someone is going to be surprised by this report.”

Corn Slightly Higher, Despite Poor Exports
Corn was slightly higher Thursday in tandem with the wheat market and seeing some technical buying after closing the March contract above the 200-day moving average. However, Bosse says the market will need to see a close above the $4.50 level, which is the next resistance area, to keep rallying. Weekly exports are now caught up and for the week ended Jan. 1 corn were disappointing at only 14.9 million bu. a marketing-year low. That was down 49% from the previous week and 76% from the four-week average but Bosse points out it was a holiday week which usually has lighter volume. The cumulative sales are also at over 2.0 billion bu. which is up 30% from last year.

Soybeans Lower, Disappointed by Export News
Soybeans are lower after hitting chart resistance again at the 200-day moving average. Plus, after rumors again yesterday of China buying another eight to ten cargoes of soybeans the market may have been disappointed with Thursday’s flash sale of only 4.85 million bu. sold to China. Weekly exports were also lackluster at only 32.3 million bu. with cumulative sales still running 29% behind last year at 1.05 billion bu.

Wheat Sees Short Covering or Weather Concerns?
Wheat futures rallied on Wednesday and are seeing some follow through buying early Thursday. Some of that is tied to short covering as funds are net short in all three exchanges. However, is the market adding some weather premium? Bosse says with the above normal temperatures in winter wheat production areas there has been some concern about the set up for winterkill. The state condition reports showed the crop is deteriorating most notably due to dryness.

Cattle Two-Sided Early Then Rally on Strong Cash Ideas
Cattle futures were two-sided early Thursday after seeing some profit taking and consolidation Wednesday. Bosse says live cattle futures ran up into some chart resistance but the market was also waiting for direction from the cash trade. Early bids have been higher than last week’s trade and so that helped shore up the futures mid-morning. He says cash will continue to be strong for both feeders and fats because of the tight numbers and cash is still the driving force. So, he is optimistic the cattle futures will retest or even exceed the record highs set back in October of 2025.

Lean Hogs Bounce
Lean hog futures were seeing a slight bounce early Thursday after some profit taking on Wednesday. However, longer term the funds seem to be buying the hogs, despite weaker cash performance. Bosse says there also seems to be some buying tied to disease concerns, the overall demand for protein and ideas the U.S. could pick up some export business with continued African Swine Fever cases in Spain.

Brazil Surpassing U.S. As Top Beef Producer, Easing Global Supply Squeeze

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 16:01:53 GMT

Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer last year, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices.

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4% for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7% drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, Rising Carcass Weight Drive Output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9% to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28% of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22% in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

A drone image shows cattle entering a feedlot at CMA Farm in Barretos, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

(Joel Silva/Reuters)

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate - the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season - to rise to 54% in 2027 from an expected 50% in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90% proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40%.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66%, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96%, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just 4% between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24%, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5% and cattle numbers will grow 5% over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil Key As Top Producers Scale Down

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4% - the biggest annual drop in decades - after rising 0.4% in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2%.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano in Barretos and Peter Hobson in Canberra; Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio)

What Rallied Grains and Can the Market Extend Gains? Livestock Fall on Wednesday

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 21:29:39 GMT

Grain markets ended higher on Wednesday with cattle and hogs lower.

Grain Markets See Corrective Buying
Grain markets were higher on Wednesday with gains led by soybeans and wheat. Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after the selloff to end 2025 and with a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans.

“We’re essentially back to the midpoint of the range from where we were Christmas Eve. So, you know, the week between Christmas and New Year’s was was pretty rough on the markets, just pretty thin. And the markets were able to get pushed around. So, kind of a reversion to the mean trade, if you will and consolidative. We get down to lower end of the range. We know demand and corn is strong. So, we’re still remained in the range near term,” he adds.

Can the Markets Build on the Rally?
March soybeans closed above the 200-day moving average but Toay says it was not decisively higher and so the market will need to take out the next resistance area to extend the rally. Garrett says he would be more confident of additional buying if the January WASDE and final crop production report weren’t right around the corner.

“I don’t think the market’s going to be to have so much conviction either way around the 200 day, especially with the report on Monday. Beans could see a little bit more follow through here just because I think the pipeline is a little bit tight and I don’t think corn has a story. The market’s aware of where the farmer will sell in corn. Beans are a little bit bigger question.”

Soybeans Also See a Push From Demand
Soybean futures also rallied with continued talk of China buying another eight to ten cargoes or 600,000 MT. However, there is also a push from soybean processors. Toay says a lot of farmers sold soybeans during or shortly after harvest and now that much of that product has been shipped or processed. So, he thinks soybean processors need to restock the pipeline. “It will be interesting to see how much the processor has to bid up to get some of the stored soybeans out of producers hands,” he adds.

China Nearly Done Buying Soybeans?
Rumors have circulated this week about additional purchases by Sinograin, from ten to 14 cargoes for March-May delivery. Some firms have estimated China has bought around 10 MMT of the 12 MMT they committed to. However, Garrett says that will likely shut off soon with Brazil’s crop coming in the next 45 days. “Brazil prices are cheaper than the U.S. so China will soon shift over to South America’s new crop,” he says.

South American Weather Watch
Weather forecasts in Brazil have been largely favorable but there are some emerging issues with dryness in parts of Argentina. Still, private estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop continue to inch higher as StoneX raised production to 177.6 MMT. “I think, ANEC out of Brazil today said that they’re looking at 2026 soybean exports down about 10 million metric ton ton from what they were last year. That’s essentially what Sinograin’s buying out of the out of the U.S. right now,” he states.

Corn Awaits the WASDE
Corn has been in a holding pattern awaiting the Jan. 12 WASDE and final crop production numbers from USDA. At this point, Toay says basis levels don’t suggest the market is anticipating any big changes in ending stocks. “I don’t think you are going to see a yield cut big enough to get anyone too excited, especially considering the fact that you’ve you’ve got a feed residual number that’s six hundred million bushel larger than this point last year. So, there’s some demand baked in there that could potentially offset production cuts.”

Toay says USDA’s 125 million bu. cut to corn carryout last month due to increased exports may be too high. “But given the Brazil export numbers in December, it looks like the USDA cut Brazil exports a little bit too soon because, they only have to export another four million metric ton over two months, to hit the USDA forecast.”

Corn Caught in Tug of War
Corn also closed above the 200-day moving average on the March contract Wednesday. It has been trading sideways between $4.35 and $4.45 as it is caught in a tug of war between end user buying at the bottom end of the trading range and farmer selling at the top. Toay doesn’t see any story emerging that can change that narrative. “So, you know, my concern is beans have rallied a little bit. You’re going to see some crop rotations and some acres shift back to beans but you know, the number I’ve kind of been throwing around is four million acres. If we shift shift four million acres from corn to beans, you’re still at 95 million acres of corn, which is going to be pretty big,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat futures also saw corrective buying and fund short covering as the funds are short more than 130,000 contracts in the three classes combined and wheat just came off of new contract lows in SRW wheat hit on Friday. “I don’t think the wheat market really wants to be too short under $5. The funds are short, probably too short given the geopolitical issues out there perhaps.” Toay discounted reports of weather issues in China and the U.S. to drive some premium into the market.

Fund Rebalancing?
Some of the advisory firms have been talking about buying in the grains tied to fund rebalancing to start a new year, but Toay isn’t in that camp. “The index funds do rebalance. It does kind of favor corn here a little bit, but it’s it’s spread out over five days, and it’s it’s pretty mechanical. I don’t think it’s typically a market mover,” he says.

Cattle Lower on Profit Taking
Both live and feeder cattle futures saw profit taking on Wednesday according to Toay. He says the February live cattle contract hit chart resistance around $237.45 both Monday and Tuesday and that also triggered some technical selling. “This is just some back and fill,” says Toay. Who thinks the market was awaiting cash trade for direction.

Hogs Lower As Well
Lean hog futures were also lower seeing some profit taking and consolidation along with the cattle market. While negotiated cash was up $10 coming into the session the cutout values were down $2.59 which may have also weighed on futures.

Grains See Short Covering Rally to Start the Week: What Drove it Fundamentally?

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 16:29:54 GMT

Grain and livestock futures are mostly higher to start Monday.

Grains See Short Covering Rally
Grain markets are all higher to start the week. Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says some of the strength is tied to short covering after lower weekly closes in corn, soybeans and wheat last week. In fact, soybeans tested the October lows and are oversold after falling nearly $1.40 off the November highs.

Geopolitical Premium?
Are the grains also adding a little bit of geopolitical premium with the developments over the weekend in Venezuela? Knight says there is just a slight amount of risk premium being added to the grain markets and other outside markets. However, the response has been rather muted and orderly. The one thing he is watching is China’s response. “China has been getting cheap crude oil from Venezuela and they may decide to retaliate. This could include canceling U.S. soybean sales,” he says. However, as of right now China has not responded.

New Year, New Money
The other possibility is starting a new year the volume has picked back up in the markets with traders back to work. Knight says there may also be some reallocation of portfolios by money managers and they could be looking at moving money from over valued precious metals to under valued grain markets.

Soybeans Adding Weather Premium?
The other question is whether or not soybeans, and to a lesser degree corn, are trying to add some South American weather premium? Argentina has been mostly dry the last seven days and is not seeing a good chance for rain until the 6-15 day time frame. Brazil has been receiving some timely rains but the extended forecast is looking a bit drier Monday morning in the Northeast. Knight says the market doesn’t have any risk premium built in and may not be overly concerned at this point.

Soybeans Trying to Bottom? Corn Sideways
Knight says even though the market has bounced off the October harvest lows, he’s not ready to call a bottom in the soybeans. In fact, he thinks the March contract will need a close over $10.80 before he’s willing to get bullish about the soybean market. Meanwhile, corn just bounced off of last week’s lows, along with wheat, and is still in its sideways range.

Exports, Commitment of Traders Data Getting Up to Date
USDA released export sales for December 25 this morning and the Commitment of Traders Report is updated as of December 23. Knight says so far corn exports are running year to date 30% higher than last year, while soybeans are 31% behind. Managed money is still plenty long in soybeans and traders extended their long position much farther than anyone in the trade expected, while traders are nearly flat in the corn market.

WASDE on the Way
The next big market mover will be the January WASDE. Knight says he expects USDA to increase corn exports in the report and lower soybean exports. The trade is also anticipating lower yields for corn and soybeans but he admits it will take a sizable cut to corn yield to make a real dent in the balance sheets because it will be offset by lower feed and residual use.

Farmer Bridge Assistance Payments Coming
Meanwhile, USDA announced the payment rates for the Farmers Bridge Assistance program and Knight thinks this may slow farmer selling. The payment will be received by Feb. 28 and so farmers will be anticipating an influx of cash which may help them to hold bushels off the market waiting for higher prices.

Cattle Make New Highs for the Move
Live and feeder cattle futures both made new highs for the move after last week’s chart breakouts. Knight says higher cash and more cases of New World Screwworm in Mexico also fueled the rally. Now that the market has filled chart gaps and closed above those levels he thinks its possible for futures to grind higher. However, he cautions that the market may be unable to retest the record highs because the fund or managed money traders are still fairly long in the futures and may not be willing to push the market that hard as they don’t have a lot of additional room to add positions or buy.

Cattle Break to Near Term Highs With Cash, NWS: Soybeans Grind to Fresh Lows

Fri, 02 Jan 2026 21:07:54 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended lower on Friday with a big rally in cattle futures.

Soybeans Make Fresh Lows
Soybeans made new lows for the move on Friday and ended the week losing another 27 cents on the March contract. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the soybean market saw technical selling but fundamental pressure came from the favorable weather in South America. Brazil has been getting rains and is on pace to have a record crop he says.

Weak Exports Also Plague Soybeans
Soybeans are also seeing liquidation by long traders as the export pace is running at a 14 year low with year to date sales at 986 million bu. and down 32% from last year. Varilek says this will be difficult to make up even with China fulfilling their entire purchase commitment. “I think the market got caught up in these trade deals and the idea we were going to get them done and we’re going to move some beans and then to hear those kind of low numbers. It’s it’s a little bit depressing. And now it’s like, okay, what else can come out of these trade deals,” he says.

Will the October Lows Be Tested in Soybeans?
The March soybean contract is on its way to testing the October lows which for the March contract set at $10.28 but Varilek says that is possible. “We broke out of the bottom side of the charts and so now we have the October lows kind of in sight. You know they’re not too far away. We’re through all the retracement levels, so I could see a little bit of a magnet effect for for that.”

Corn Sideways Until the WASDE
Corn futures were lower in tandem with lower soybeans and wheat futures and ended 12 cents lower for the week. While the March contact took out $4.40 support the bigger support area is at $4.35 which coincides with the bottom end of the trading range corn has been chopping in. Varilek expects this area to hold through the January WASDE. “We just don’t have enough positive momentum to get through the top of the charts even with strong exports and the lower yields expected in the January report. That’s because we continue to linger around the 2.0 billion bu. mark on ending stocks,” he explains.

New Year Fund Reallocation?
Could corn or the rest of the grain complex see some new money at the beginning of a new year on portfolio reallocation by the funds? Could they move money out of over extended precious metals into low valued grain markets? Varilek says it is possible but the evidence of that won’t be seen until after the first full trading week of the new year which volume is re-established.

Cattle Futures Break Out to New Highs
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move on Friday and had higher weekly closes. Feb. live cattle were up $6.35 and March feeder cattle futures gained $12.53 for the week. This came on the heels of stronger fed cash trade with mostly $232 live sales, up $2 to $3 from last week, in both the North and South. Northern dressed deals were also at mostly $360 to $362, up $4 from last week’s weighted average.

However, he is looking to the cash market for feeders as the real leader. “This cash market is is the lead dog for me right now. I mean cash feeders first that’s what really led this market, to where we got to this last year and that’s where we’re going to be looking again as we get into next week and start to get some more numbers,” he adds.

NWS Case Sparks Rally
New World Screwworm cases in a newborn calf 197 miles from the Mexican border and a case detected in a goat also helped to spur some buying interest in the feeder cattle futures with ideas it will slow the reopening of trade. “Just the fact that there’s still some cases down there maybe this reopening of the border doesn’t happen right away, you know, we were kind of thinking we were probably pretty close. Maybe you just kind of kicked that can down the road. And it could tell some guys, let’s get back into the sale barn and,get some feeders bought,” he adds.

How High Can Futures Rally?
Feeder cattle futures filled the gap area already on Wednesday and closed above that area which attracted some technical buying on Friday. The rally in feeders also finally pulled live cattle above chart resistance areas, including the 100-day moving average, which had kept the market sideways the last couple of weeks. So can the market continue to rally and maybe even retest the record highs from October? Varilek says technically feeders may try to fill the last gap area on the charts and if that is accomplished the highs will be in sight.

“It has the setup for it but just some of the worries that come along with it. Are we going to see some negative packer margins that are really going to affect this? You know, we’ve got Lexington closing. We’ve got Amarillo’s already gotten rid of their B shift. There there is some of that that you have to worry about yet, but it’s going to have to be the cash feeders that are going to have to do it,” he explains.

If feeders make new highs the question is do live cattle follow? Varilek says the cattle market could be getting into it’s tightest numbers. However, he’s not sure how much higher live cattle can run especially as cattle weights are heavy and he is seeing some signs of mild heifer retention.

Will the Funds Push the Market?
So if the market is going to return to the record highs it will take some help from the funds. “So there’s some of your hedge money, some of your fund money that’s available to look at that chart and say, hey, this thing still, has some potential to get back to some of those highs. So, uh, I think that there is a good room.” But he says January is a tough month for cash cattle to trend higher and it’s too early to talk about a spring rally.

Lean Hogs Stay Sideways?
Lean hog futures were lower on Friday seeing some follow through technical selling but still in a sideways range. Varilek says he thinks the market could stay range bound as it tries to absorb the increase in supplies the next six weeks. However, after that there may be some buying with ideas that disease will curb production.

Grains Fall to End 2025 as Soybeans Plunge: Cattle Rally

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 21:30:28 GMT

Grain and hog futures end lower on Wednesday, with cattle higher.

Soybeans Hit New Lows for The Move
Soybeans scored new lows for the move on the last trading day of 2025. Randy Martinson says the market saw technical selling on end of quarter and end of year positioning. It was also first notice day for January soybean contracts and there were heavy deliveries that weighed on the nearby contract. “We had deliveries that were the highest, since November of 2021,” he explains.

The risk off environment in other areas of the market also spilled over to soybeans and the entire grain complex as gold and silver tumbled on the last day of the year and forced some margin calls.

South American Weather Bearish
Another major bearish factor is South American weather is favorable for all but Southern Argentina. Martinson says, “What we’re seeing is the South America weather played a big role into it. Brazil has been getting you know, their average rainfall. Things are looking pretty good there. They’ve started harvesting the northern regions you know. So I think that added a little bit to it. Argentina is now expected to remain dry for the one for the seven day forecast, but they 8-14 day calls for rain to move in. So, I think that put extra pressure in on the soybean market here today.”

China and Export Concerns
Martinson says he still thinks the market has lingering concerns about China. “Whether or not they’re going to buy that 12 MMT, but also since shipments have been so slow that there could be some cancellations that come later.” That comes on the heels of rumors this week of additional China business, seven to nine cargoes, on top of the confirmed flash sales from China. However, that wasn’t confirmed on Wednesday morning, so Martinson says that was also disappointing.

Brazil’s Lower Soybean Prices a Drag
The drag on U.S. soybean prices has also come from lower prices in Brazil. “Well, it’s not helping, but I think in, you know, outside of China where we still have that extra tariff on. I do think that we are competitive for the rest of the world, to be able to buy beans from us. And I think that was part of the what we saw yesterday with that unknown destination coming in and buying a pretty good Jag of soybeans,” he adds.

Chart Support for March Soybeans?
So with fresh for the move lows where is the next chart support for March soybeans? Martinson says around $10.28 which coincides with the harvest lows in October.

Corn Tests Bottom of Trading Range
Corn futures saw some spillover pressure from lower soybeans and wheat, but held slight gains on Wednesday and the bottom end of the trading range. Support is down around $4.35 on the March contract and corn effectively is still trading sideways, according to Martinson, due to strong demand. “Exports continue to be good. Ethanol demand continues to be good. You know, the trade is anticipating lower yields in the January 12 report. So I think that’s all helping us to keep the the traders in the corn market a little bit honest.”

Can Corn Break Out of Its Sideways Pattern?
Martinson says to break out of the sideways pattern corn will need some help in the January WASDE. “I think it’s going to take USDA lowering the yield a little bit in that January twelfth report. The trouble is that we’re going to see maybe lower yields, but we could see feed demand lowered a little bit. And that’s going to be the concerning part.”

Wheat Falls
Wheat futures also saw pressure this week erasing last week’s gains. Martinson says there were several bearish factors including a marketing year low weekly export number and an increase in the Argentina crop to a record 27.5 MMT. Plus, news China was going to pull wheat out of their reserves was bearish. “The rumor was on Monday that China was looking at pulling out 7.25 MMT, almost 200 million bu. of 2017 wheat out of their reserves. That’s going to be feed wheat, and that’s going to replace a lot of corn feed demand. And I think that upset the wheat and corn markets.” he says.

Wheat Removing Weather Premium
Martinson says wheat was also removing weather premium. “Last week, you know, of course, we were talking about the much above normal temps and the low precip for the Southern Plains. And I think that’s supported the market. Now this week, of course, they’re talking about a little more rain coming into play there.”

Wheat Disregards Black Sea War Headlines
Black Sea peace talks were on again, off again and both Russia and Ukraine launched substantial attacks against each other this week. However, Martinson says the market has become numb to the headlines. “It just seems to be such a, dog and pony show there that we really aren’t trading it. They keep talking about the peace deal, but they keep seeing an increase in aggression against each country. So until we actually see the war stop, I don’t think the wheat market’s going to care. And even then, I don’t know if it’ll matter because exports will take a while to to go back to normal for both Ukraine and Russia.”

Cattle Rally with Feeders Breaking Out
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher on Wednesday. Martinson says live cattle are still moving sideways on the charts but feeder cattle made new highs for this move and closed above the gap area that was filled on the charts. He says its now possible for feeders to continue to push higher. “Well, technically that was the signal that we were looking for. And it does look like the market has opened itself up to to maybe make a test of that 67% retracement, which looks like it could be about $10, $15 above where we’re trading right now. If that breaks through, then we’re looking at closing the next gap and maybe making a run for the old high.”

Can Feeders Pull Up Live Cattle?
So if feeders are the leaders can they pull live cattle above the current chart resistance levels? “I think they would have to because then we’re starting to get the relationship between live cattle and feeder cattle too wide again.” However, he doesn’t think will happen until the fed cash market also pulls up futures.

Another NWS Case
There was also news of another New World Screwworm case in a calf 197 miles from the Mexican border and psychologically that was also a boost to the feeder cattle market as it may delay the reopening of border to imports.

Is the Slide in Grains All About South America? What Rallied Livestock Tuesday

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:26:18 GMT

Grains ended slightly lower on Tuesday with cattle and hogs higher.

Grains Slide Further on Year End Positioning
Grain markets all closed lower for a second day this week on follow through technical selling. Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders. “So we’ve got two weeks of holidays here. We’re at end of the quarter end of the year. A lot of reasons to take off risk for these markets in general. Along with that we also have some light fundamental news changes.” he says.

South American Weather Favorable
As especially the case for corn and soybeans the markets are also drifting says Nelson due to the lack of weather concerns in South America. Brazil has seen favorable weather and even the dryness in Argentina is starting to ease. Nelson says, “One of the news stories which has been removed, which have been lightly supportive, was this Argentine dryness story. Three weeks in a row, Argentina has seen normal to slightly above normal rain.”

Brazil’s production estimates, at least on soybeans, continue to creep higher and are now are even above 180 MMT. “USDA is not that much lower than everybody else. They are a little bit on the corn side. But for the most part, this market is not finding a rally story from South America. And typically, January and February are the two big months for yield determination for corn and soybean yields down there for sure,” he adds.

Soybean Exports Lagging
Despite more flash exports sales on Tuesday soybeans continued fall. USDA reported daily flash sales of 5.0 million of soybeans to China and 8.5 million bu. to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 marketing year on Tuesday morning. However, soybean exports are still lagging compared to a year ago. “As we head toward this coming USDA report the agency could lower yields but will probably lower exports a little bit here for soybeans and raise domestic crush,” he says.
Currently, he says soybean exports are down 94 million bushels verses USDA’s current projection. Nelson says Allendale project exports down only 30 to 40 million bu. in the January WASDE. He says it’s not because of China but because of other buyers with Brazil soybeans priced below the U.S.

Still, Nelson doesn’t think U.S. soybean prices have to fall much further. “However, on the quite positive side, we feel that these prices have moved quite a bit lower than economic value. And even with our ninety four million bushel cut to exports lately offset by lower yields and also raised domestic crush, we actually would argue like the higher prices are still due in these months ahead for soybeans as well. “

Corn Falls After Testing Resistance
Corn futures were also lower on Tuesday with soybeans and wheat and a higher dollar. However, Nelson says the market went up atnd tested the top side of the trading range on the charts and failed and is now retracing. “We had that attempt here in recent days at trying to break out of of prior highs. We’re not able to do it. We came within just within a nickel of those prior highs.”

Argentina Corn Crop Risk Fading
Nelson says the market may have a difficult time retesting those highs in the short term with the removal of risk with the improved Argentine weather. “It’s actually more important for corn than soybeans, considering the fact that, Brazil’s first crop of corn is relatively small. So I think we can argue that corn probably took the Argentine weather change a little worse than soybeans.”

Corn Yield Lower in WASDE
Nelson says they do find some reasons for higher prices starting with the January WASDE mainly due to a yield cut. “Yes, we’re looking at a yield cut. Maybe exports unchanged or maybe slightly higher on this specific report. So we do look like we do look for this general discussion on ending stocks to drop from roughly2 billion bu. will be down into the high 1.8 billion bu. or low 1.9 billion mark in a month or two,” he explains. That should push prices back to the $4.60 level for March and May.

Wheat Follows Corn and Soybeans Lower
Wheat futures were lower again Tuesday following corn and soybeans and with a higher U.S. dollar index. Nelson says the bearish market mentality is also coming from Russia’s higher wheat export forecast in coming months. He says, “Keep in mind here they were relatively weak exporter in recent months. So we do have that looming bearish issue.”

Plus he says there is a lot of focus on the feed value of wheat in relationship to corn. “As it stands right now, it’s going to take probably higher corn prices to justify a higher wheat prices.”

The wheat market is also numb to the Black Sea tensions. “Whether we have a war the market is still getting Russia and Ukraine exports, and with no war. The market’s still getting, Russia, Ukraine exports,” he adds. This comes even as Russia stepped up attacks on the Odesa port complex.

Live Cattle Futures Stuck, Feeders Breaking Out?
Live and feeder cattle futures were both higher on Tuesday. Still, the live cattle have been unable to take out key resistance on the charts while Nelson says March feeder cattle futures filled the gap area. As a result he thinks the market will stay sideways.

His concern regarding live cattle futures is the drop in wholesale beef prices again last week against the back drop of slightly higher cash prices and negative packer margins. “So far,we do have adequate supplies. Keep in mind here right now, weights finishing weights are running about 3% over last year. This comes on top of the fact that slaughter levels are only down 2% to 4% versus last year, so actual beef production has really not been hit in recent weeks specifically.”

Cash Cattle Trend This Week?
Cash trade averaged $229.33 last week, up $1.36, but on very light volume. Will that trend continue as packers buy for a full kill week next week? Nelson says he’s expecting a mixed trade and packers aren’t likely to be too aggressive. “Maybe light support here for the South. Maybe, lightly negative for the North,” he says.

Lean Hogs Rally Despite Drop in Cash and Cutouts
Lean hog futures were higher Tuesday despite a sharp drop of $1.40 in the lean hog index and lower cutout values. Nelson says it was an impressive move considering the expansion indicated in the Hogs and Pigs Report. “Slaughter rates for the month of December overall, they are holding USDA’s view of a revision for higher supply. So the bear argument has some legs right now.” Yet, futures had the second best close of the uptrend, which Nelson says is positive.

Days Numbered for Cheap Brazil Beef?

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 12:46:59 GMT

Brazil is a beef-exporting juggernaut, but the country’s ability to tame global prices may soon be tested, Bloomberg reports , noting that the country is about to enter a period of shrinking supplies.

The report noted that a surge in Brazil’s beef production has helped fuel surging exports over the past two years. It came as big herds drove down cattle prices relative to elsewhere, encouraging ranchers to send more animals to slaughter. At the same time, the U.S. and other countries struggled with high food costs and sought sources of cheaper beef. The U.S. imposed hefty tariffs on Brazilian imports earlier this year, but lifted them this fall. The tariffs were seen as a factor in helping U.S. cattle and beef prices soar to records, while the removal of the tariffs added momentum to a pullback from all-time highs for cattle futures.

But the Trump administration’s hopes that imports will help hold down U.S. beef prices come as the cycle is turning, Bloomberg noted, with prices for calves climbing in Brazil as producers begin holding back heifers to rebuild herds. That reduces the number of animals sent to slaughter and marks the start of a tightening supply cycle. Other countries are also in the process of rebuilding herds, while cattle supplies are expected to remain tight in the U.S. for at least another year amid a lack of signs that heifer retention has yet got under way. “Next year will be crucial because all the major countries in the cattle market will be in a scenario fo herd recovery,” Raphael Galo, head of agribusiness at A7 Capital, told Bloomberg.
Read more news and analysis from Pro Farmer.

Grains Fall With Macro Markets, Year End Squaring: Cattle Mixed

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 22:26:07 GMT

Grains ended lower on Monday with livestock futures mixed.

Grains End Lower on Year End Positioning
Grain markets all ended lower on Monday under light volume seeing year end positioning and tidying of books by hedge funds or managed money traders. Kevin Duling with KD Investors says there was also some algorithm trades that moved the market, even though traders were physically absent from the market. “In the old days we used to move a cent and think it was a big day in the holiday week because everybody took the week off. But with the computers, there’s always a little more activity than we’d like to see.”

With grain markets rallying up to the top end of their trading ranges through last Wednesday there was also some profit taking and farmer selling he adds. “Producers probably have some some year end sales to make especially as March corn ran above $4.50, which was the second highest trade in the contract clear back to June,” he says.

Macro Markets Create Risk Off Selling in Grains
With big moves in the precious metals like gold and silver off of record highs plus higher crude oil the macro markets created some risk off trading which spilled over in the grain markets according to Duling. “And it’s going to be a rocky road on the macro side for the extended. So when we have a low volatility session you’re going to get moved around hard on stuff that’s not necessarily related to supply and demand.”

Duling thinks 2026 is going to be a “macro year” that could create some allocation changes by money managers, hedge funds and banks, that could impact the grains. “The biggest one is the metals with gold and silver doing what they’ve done, and you’re getting to the kind of the apex of those moves and they’ve been forecasting some major changes coming up. And so that’s going to make the whole portfolio on the macro side and on the fund side change as as those markets move. And so the last time we saw anything similar was 2010, which was after the 2008 bubble popped,” he explains.

Grains Mark Time Ahead of January WASDE
One fundamental the market is watching is the January WASDE. Duling says the grain markets have been in ranges or holding patterns waiting for that new infusion of data. For corn he thinks yield needs to be cut. “There’s just too many reports where where I think they’re off off the mark there by quite a bit. So that has to come down. Are they going to bring it down enough. I doubt it.” The good news is USDA is projecting a 16.7 billion bu. crop but 16.2 billion bu. of demand.

In contrast soybeans export demand or at least inspections are down year to date by 46% which may require a cut in exports in the WASDE. Duling says, “They probably should drop those exports. I’m not sure if they will. China says they’re going to keep on buying. You know they’re going to finish their12 MMT and roll into the 25 MMT? I don’t know if that’s going to happen.

Brazil Weather Weighs on Soybeans
Brazilian weather has been more favorable lately and crop estimates continue to climb above 180 MMT which is also pressure the soybean market. However, Duling says Argentina is seeing some dryness in the South which could cut their yields. “So they’ve been a little bit on the dry side. but it’s hard to get excited when South America continues to expand.” he adds.

Wheat Fails After Higher Weekly Closes
Wheat futures managed higher weekly closes last week but failed to see any follow through Monday, despite some lingering risks. Duling says, “You’ve got the Ukraine infrastructure shut down enough that they’re only running about 20% of what they can. And that that’s a pretty big factor and the war is not necessarily over. And so I mean, there were some peace talks going on over the weekend and whatnot, but I think there’s some still some sticking points. And it sounds like there’s still quite a bit of headline risk there.”

Duling adds that the wheat crop is also at risk from a weather perspective. “There’s also quite a bit of cold weather risk for not just the Black Sea with Europe and the U.S. as well right after a warm stretch. So there’s some risk there.” Plus, he says demand continues to be good. However, there may be some concern about more China cancellations of U.S. wheat and large global supplies continue to be bearish for the market.

Cattle Market Still Sideways
The live cattle ended mixed with feeders slightly higher but both are still in sideways trading ranges? Duling says that is likely to continue through the end of the year. The market is in a tug of war between tight supplies and the push by the administration to lower beef prices according to Duling. “We have kind of have a an administration cap on that market and what it does is it keeps the hedge funds from wanting to take the long side and build a big, long in that market, because they know at any moment they could get slapped with something political.”

However, he thinks by spring the market could rally. “I would not be surprised to see markets trend higher just to follow the cash market. Its just a matter of when,” he says. The other bearish unknown is when the Mexican border reopens to cattle imports.