Canada

One of North America’s Largest Farms Files for Financial Protection, Is Restructuring

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 14:50:01 GMT

Earlier this week, Monette Group, which farms more than 400,000 acres in Canada and the U.S. filed for financial protection and is restructuring.

The company filed for creditor protector in Canada via the Companies’ Creditor Arrangement Act (CCAA) and filed Chapter 15 in Delaware Bankruptcy Court.

The Cost of Expansion: Efficiency Erosion and the Leverage Trap

The group’s recent financial trajectory highlights a cautionary tale of aggressive, debt-fueled expansion meeting a volatile economic climate. While the organization successfully scaled its footprint and top-line revenue over the last several years, operational efficiency and debt sustainability have reached a critical breaking point. [all dollars are Canadian]

The Era of Aggressive Growth (2017–2022)
Driven by substantial borrowing, the Group underwent a massive scale-up, growing revenue from $45 million to $198 million and expanding its cultivated land from 97,000 to 269,000 acres. While total EBITDA initially followed this upward trend, the underlying efficiency—measured by EBITDA-per-acre—began to signal trouble, dropping significantly from its 2015 highs.
Operational Headwinds and Margin Compression (2024–Present)
The transition into 2024 saw revenue climb to a record $347 million across 440,000 acres, yet profitability decoupled from growth. Diversification into produce and cattle, intended to broaden the portfolio, instead acted as a drag on the bottom line. By 2024, EBITDA-per-acre plummeted to a decade low of $83—a nearly 50% decline. This downward trend was exacerbated in 2025; despite a projected $72 million EBITDA, actual earnings reached only $31 million due to a “perfect storm” of poor crop prices, high input costs, and yield losses.
The Sustainability Crisis
The group’s reliance on cheap capital (approximately 3% interest rates) and rising real estate valuations proved successful in a low-rate environment. However, the convergence of flat property values, persistent inflation, and high interest rates has rendered the current capital structure unsustainable. Despite holding significant underlying asset value, the group is now overleveraged, with compressed margins leaving little room to service debt or maintain liquidity.

What Is Monette Group?

Since 2010, Monette Group has been aggressively expanding from its family farm in Saskatchewan to Manitoba and British Columbia in Canada. Current President Darrel Monette took over the family farm in 2013. In 2019, the company expanded into the U.S. first in Montana and then Arizona and Colorado. The company’s website says its core values are: teamwork, efficiency, growth and ‘get shit done.’

With its expansion and diversification, the business expanded into four main brands:

Monette Farms: growing pulses, wheat, corn, sugar beets, barley, and alfalfa in Canada and the U.S.
Monette Produce: with growing locations in California, Arizona and Canada
Monette Cattle: ranches located in Saskatchewan and British Columbia
Monette Seeds: located in Saskatchewan in partnership with NexGen Seeds

The 18 business entities of Monette Group employ between 300 and 600 people, depending on the season.

Grain production, primarily canola, wheat and durum accounted for over 60% of group revenue in 2024 and more than 50% in 2025. Grain operations dominate the Canadian footprint with 68% of the group’s production occurring in Canada.

Fresh produce operations are primarily located in Saskatchewan and British Columbia, with significant fall and winter production in Arizona. In 2025, produce accounted for approximately 15% of group revenue. Crops include carrots, squash, broccoli, cabbage, pumpkin, cauliflower and watermelon. The group’s produce is mainly sold to Loblaws and the Little Potato Company.

Cattle ranching accounted for approximately 10% of revenue in 2024 and 17% in 2025. Cattle ranching operations focus on Black and Red Angus cattle, including herd breeding in British Columbia and feedlots across Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Seed processing accounted for 19% of revenue in 2024 and 16% in 2025.

Its main crops 10 years ago were green and red lentils, durum, canola and malting barley.

According to the company’s website, Monette Farms’ newest addition is west of Phoenix, Arizona. It’s a certified organic farm and headquarters to Monette Seeds USA.

What Monette Farms Has Said

President Darrel Monette has penned a letter sent to landowners and leasing partners as well as a press release distributed with general counsel as the point of contact. Both are dated April 21, 2026.

In both Monette says this process will allow them to stabilize finances, restructure debt, and continue operating.

The letter read: “This filing is a proactive response to current industry pressures (higher input costs, higher interest rates, and tighter credit) and is not a liquidation.”

It continued: “We are working with our advisors and a court-appointed Monitor to develop a restructuring plan for credit and court approval.”

Per a company press release, the day-to-day farming activities, spring seeding and livestock care are continuing as planned. The release also said all employees are being retained at this time.

The Assets of Monette Group

According to its 2025 financial statements, the group has $1.24 billion of total assets booked at cost (and not reflective of market value.)

As of April 12, 2026, the group owns 274,000 acres of land. In the U.S. Monette owns 61,700 acres in Arizona, Montana and Colorado.

For crop production, it leases 175,000 acres in Canada and 43,000 acres in the U.S. with annual total lease payments of $29.4 million. For its cattle business, Monette holds grazing licenses on 1.2 million acres of land in Canada.

The group owns three seed processing facilities in Canada.

It leases more than 1,700 separate units of farm equipment, with 1,600 units leased from John Deere Financial. Annually, the group spends $26 million on leased equipment.In 2023, it was newsworthy when the business transitioned from Case IH equipment to John Deere equipment in a reported $100+ million deal.

What Else Is There To Watch?

Monette Group is one of the largest privately held farming operations in North America.

The timing of this filing is critical for the farm to put in a 2026 crop. In the CCAA filing, Monette Group said its seed expenses are $40 million per year. To get set up for seeding, Monette’s operations may receive 41 truck loads of product a day (nearly 15,000 truck loads a year).

The main filing is in Canada with proceedings under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) as part of a court-supervised restructuring process. From here is a process by which Monette will work with a court-appointed monitor to develop a restructuring plan for creditor and court approval.

The Chapter 15 filing asks the U.S. court to recognize the Canadian CCAA proceeding as the “foreign main proceeding” which can extend the protection of U.S. assets. It also prevents U.S. creditors from taking legal action such as seizing assets or filing lawsuits.

In the CCAA document, it is stated Monette Group held a $950 million secured credit facility dated December 5, 2018, which matured on April 15, 2026. Repayment of the obligations owing to the syndicate of lenders is a necessary component of the group’s overall restructuring strategy.

The CCAA filing comes after Monette per the guidance of its lending syndicate to sell assets. Two tracts were sold in 2025: in Regina, Saskatchewan for $41.18 million and 17,000 acres of land in Montana for $47.5 million. Additional sales were attempted this this winter, but with only one completed sale of 12,932 acres of farmland in the Stewart Valley of Swift Current, Saskatchewan for $54 million.

In the affadavit, Monette says a restructuring and selling of assets by the court appointed monitor is important to provide an orderly sale of assets and not cause a bulk liquidation which could result in lower values.

The farm has been active on social media:

China Buying Canadian Canola Again

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 12:53:32 GMT

China has resumed its purchases of Canadian canola, an early sign of a revival in the trade after the nations reached a deal this month, Bloomberg reported. “Crushers in the country have booked cargoes of Canadian rapeseed, known locally as canola, for loading in the next few months, according to people with knowledge of the shipments. Importers also booked some canola meal for loading between April to June, said other people involved in the deals,” said the report. China’s imports of canola and canola products from Canada — a trade valued at C$4.9 billion ($3.6 billion) in 2024 — had plunged last year after Beijing imposed steep levies on the goods, a move seen as retaliation for Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other industrial products.
More from Pro Farmer.

U.S.-Canada Relations Continue to Erode

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:36:27 GMT

President Trump on Saturday warned Canada of 100% tariffs in a social media post, saying that if Carney “thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken.” Canada has agreed to lower tariffs on 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to 6%, removing a 100% surtax, as part of a deal aimed at rebuilding ties with Beijing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday warned that Canada could face 100% tariffs from the U.S. if the country enters into a free-trade agreement with China and allows itself to become a place where artificially cheap goods can enter the US supply chain. The moves by the U.S. followed a speech by Canadian President Mark Carney during the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, when he spoke about the need for middle powers to band together to counter aggressive coercion by the world’s superpowers. The Canadian leader didn’t mention any countries by name, but his comments were widely interpreted as aimed at the U.S.

Trump and key administration officials have denounced that bilateral agreement and warned of potential consequences, portending a difficult renegotiation for the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement this summer, reported Bloomberg . Canada’s minister in charge of U.S. trade, Dominic LeBlanc, said Saturday that Ottawa isn’t pursuing a free trade agreement with China and that the agreements between Carney and Xi aimed to resolve tariff disputes. More from Pro Farmer.

Record Breaking Used Hay Baler And Seed Drill Headline Pete's Pick of the Week

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 18:22:49 GMT

Hay and livestock equipment is scorching hot on the used farm equipment auction market. This week’s Pete’s Pick of the Week is a shining example of positive momentum within the segment.

At a Jason Aycock Auctioneering sale Saturday in South Hill, Va., a “really sharp” New Holland BR7060 round baler (shown top of page) with 7,700 bales on it sold for $31,000. That topped the previous record auction price by $2,000.

(Jason Aycock Auctioneering)

In the same auction lot, a Hayduster 107 10-foot no-till seed drill (shown above) with 1,110 acres on it sold for $22,000, which once again broke the previous record high at auction by $2,000.

Here is a video from Machinery Pete’s Facebook page showing both machines being auctioned off:

(Machinery Pete Facebook)

And a few weeks ago, at a Richie Brothers auction in Saskatchewan, a 2017 John Deere 569 round baler with 5,968 bales under its belt (shown right) sold for $56,000 CA, which equates to just over $40,000 USD. Machinery Pete says that’s the seventh highest price all-time on a John Deere 569.

Used utility tractors with loader attachments also remain in high demand in the livestock/cattle producer markets.

(Jason Aycock Auctioneering)

At the Aycock sale in Virginia over the weekend, a New Holland T5070 with over 4,000 engine hours on it (shown above) with a NH 852 T loader implement included sold for $41,000. Pete says that’s not a record, but it still represents a “pretty, pretty strong price.”

And what about other livestock farming equipment, like feed trucks? Are those machines also bringing big dollar bids at auction? Yes, they sure are, says Pete.

(Purple Wave Auctions )

A 2024 Kenworth C500 feed mixer truck with a Rotomix 7002016 XD mixer (shown above) and 16,424 miles on it sold for $203,500 at a PurpleWave.com online auction last Wednesday.

“Whether it’s a round baler or a loader tractor, one of the things driving the market here is, you know, what’s a new one cost? When you’re buying horsepower on the used tractor market, it’s such a contrast with the price of new to a good used one that, even though it’s a record price, it’s still a big gap between the [price of a] new one. And that makes it awful attractive for used buyers,” Pete says.

Upcoming Auction

On November 4 Big Iron Auctions/Sullivan Auctioneers will be hosting the Jon and Marcia Kinzenbaw “No Reserve Collector Tractor Auction” in Williamsburg, Iowa, and online at BigIron.com. Jon Kinzenbaw founded Kinze Manufacturing Inc.

You can check out the auction docket for that sale here , bidding closes November 4 at 9:00 am CDT.

Your Next Read: Machinery Pete’s 5 Pointers For Equipment Auctions

Classic Tractor Shines: 1989 John Deere 4455 Hits $80,750 at Iowa Auction

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 18:11:34 GMT

Machinery Pete’s Pick of the Week didn’t shatter any auction records, but it’s worth noting considering this week’s machine of honor is almost 40 years old.

At a Nate’s Tractor consignment auction on Thursday, Sept. 4, in Riceville, Iowa, a 1989 John Deere 4455 tractor with 3,066 original hours sold for $80,750. It’s the 17^th highest price Pete has recorded for what he says is a classic tractor with an average auction price of $44,751.

“Five years ago [the average auction price] was just under $37,850, and 25 years ago it was at $37,765, so we’ve jumped [up] here in the last five years,” Pete says. “There’s a lot of love for those 4455s out there.”

The all-time record for a used John Deere 4455 was set last year at an auction in Berlin, Wis. That was a 1992 model with 2,260 original hours, and it sold for $160,000. The previous record high for a 4455 was set in 2023 and it sold for $97,850.

You can take a look at all the historical sales data for used John Deere 4455 tractors over at Machinery Pete by clicking this link.

Fall auction season heats up this week

Machinery Pete says the number of used farm equipment auctions is starting to increase. He believes that is partly due to two factors: high used machine inventories on equipment dealer lots, and more farmers hitting retirement age and deciding to call it quits and sell off the fleet.

Pete says the next seven days represent “a market testing week” and there’s a handful of sales he wants interested buyers to be aware of:

Merit Auctions is hosting its large dealer auction online and in-person on its inventory yard in Ft. Madison, Iowa, on Tuesday at 10 a.m. CT. Pete says that sale has a lot of late-model equipment and a wide variety of equipment makes to choose from. It features 31 used tractors, five combines, five skid steers and five sprayers.
Richie Brothers is hosting an online only, timed auction on Tuesday featuring a collection of classic machinery from noted John Deere collector Norman Balzer up in Duke, Alberta, in Canada. There is a 1953 John Deere Model D Wide Front “Streeter” antique tractor that drew Pete’s eye in that sale.
Hoenig Auctions is hosting its online Sievers Equipment Inventory Reduction auction currently , and the bidding closes at 1 p.m. CT on Tuesday. Sievers is a Case-IH dealer, and Pete says there is a pair of 2012 Steiger 450 4WD tractors and a 2008 Case IH 2588 combine among many good quality machines in that sale.
TractorTuesday.com is auctioning off a 1978 John Deere 4840 Powershift tractor out of Ohio among the 394 active listings on its website. TractorTuesday offers zero sellers fees on listings, Pete says.
DPA Auctions has an online-only auction that starts Tuesday at 10 a.m. CT. There’s a nice 2023 John Deere low-hour 8RX 410 tractor in that sale that could be a winner for someone looking for a bargain on a late-model machine. There are also some classic Alice Chalmer and Farmall tractors available.

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What Farm Equipment Manufacturers Are Saying About 50% Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 12:00:17 GMT

Farm equipment manufacturers have spent the past nine months dealing with tariff fallout and implications. It’s an effort borne out of sheer necessity — that’s because the various tariff levels and targets have changed faster than a Kansas prairie headwind during spring planting.

It’s why we talked with executives from a handful of farm equipment manufacturers to learn more about how they are managing the situation. John Deere, for example, recently went as far as attaching a hard number to the tariff pain: a projected $600 million in balance sheet impact for 2025 is the figure shared by John Beal, director of investor relations, during Deere’s 2025 Q3 earnings call.

On Aug. 18, a 50% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. went into effect. That alone has had a huge impact on the companies building farm machines here in the U.S. and abroad, and it’s even restricting the movement of used farm equipment across the border.

Almost All American Made

Case IH’s Kurt Coffey, who serves as the companies’ vice president of its North America division, says the executive team he is on meets daily to unpack global trade developments. Case IH is in a good position overall, he says, with 80% to 90% of its machines produced in one of four U.S. production facilities, and 95% of its machinery base material (i.e. steel) sourced domestically.

Related - From the Factory to Your Fields: Where Farm Equipment Is Made

(Case IH)

“What we’re trying to do is scale across our business to where there are impacts in the short term, in the transitory period, and make sure that we continue to flow product so we’re a reliable partner for our customers,” Coffey says. “But it is anybody’s guess where this is going. So, we’re maintaining focus on the customer and our supply flows.”

That supply flow is worth the extra effort in Racine, according to Coffey, due to this fact: Anywhere from 60% to 90% of Case IH machinery is presold, so a new tariff today means a big, unexpected extra cost tacked on the back end.

“We’re executing on product that was sold three, five or even eight months ago,” he adds. “So, no comment on [financial] impacts, but we’ve continued to focus on how we make sure our customers have what they need as they’re going to harvest.”

Coffey doesn’t come right out and say it, but reading between the lines, it seems clear that Case IH has had to flex its creative muscles and figure out how to manage, for example, a new 50% tariff bill on a brand-new AF-11 combine that was sold six months ago. That extra 50% wasn’t part of the equation when the deal was signed, so who pays for it?

More EU Than U.S.

While Case IH has a large manufacturing base in the U.S., German-based manufacturer Claas is a different story. While the company builds its Lexion combines and self-propelled corn detassler machine at a 250,000-sq.-ft. facility in Omaha, Neb., four-fifths (80%) of its row crop machinery portfolio is built over in Europe and shipped to dealer lots in the U.S.

In a Trump Tariff world, that means significantly higher production costs for Claas, and potentially, the farmers that buy their tractors and combines. That’s because tariffs are taxes, and most companies will pass that extra cost down the line to consumers in the form of higher retail prices.

Eric Raby, senior vice president of the Americas region, Claas, says his outfit is actually taking on some of those extra costs.

(Claas)

“From an EU [European Union] perspective, and in Canada and some other major countries, we’re pretty even keel right now on where the tariffs are, and I think the industry as a whole has pretty much absorbed [a lot of] those,” he says. “We’ve absorbed a lot, as well. We’re not passing all of it to the customer.”

The new-ish 50% tariff on steel and aluminum is a different story, however.

“We’re still working [on that] right now and trying to figure out the implications, because that really is going to affect our industry much more broadly than just the tariffs on a country of origin for a specific machine,” Raby says. “We’re always looking for local [material] suppliers as well, because our time to market gets shortened considerably. So, it’s much more efficient for us as well.”

One way to manage those costs is to onshore more of its material sourcing network here into the U.S. We visited Claas’ Omaha factory this summer, and efforts were already underway to find more suppliers in Nebraska and the Midwest.

“We’re always looking at broadening our supplier base,” Raby says. “If we go back to COVID, I think the whole industry suffered from a lack of versatility within the supply chain. So we’re always looking for different suppliers. And then obviously, with the tariffs now, we’re looking even more intently on sourcing locally.”

Nearly 50/50

New Holland is largely viewed as a Euro-brand in farm equipment circles, but it’s closer to an even split. The company manufactures about 50% of it’s row-crop machinery in the EU and 40% in North America, with the remaining 10% built in the Asia-Pacific region.

JEAN-MARC GIUBOUX PHOTOGRAPHY

(New Holland)

New Holland’s vice president of North America, Ryan Schaefer, has been in the leadership role for the brand’s domestic operations for about a year now. He says CNH Industrial has eight manufacturing plants in the U.S. as well as a significant presence in western Canada, but managing the tariff situation has been anything but easy, he says.

“We produce tractors and combines all over the world, as well, so we truly have a global footprint,” he says. “So really, I wouldn’t go so far as to call the situation difficult, but the challenges are something that many in our industry have never had to deal with firsthand. It’s been a learning experience for all manufacturers, I would say, throughout North America and the globe.”

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U.S.-Canada Trade Spat Leaves Farmer’s New Holland Combine Stranded Up North

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:08:51 GMT

A farmer and custom harvesting business in Calumet, Okla., finds itself smack dab in the middle of the U.S. and Canada’s ongoing border trade quarrel, and it’s pretty ugly.

Ryan Sorrels, who goes by @Sorrels97 on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, purchased a used 2008 New Holland CX8080 walker combine about a month ago from a dealer up in Saskatchewan, Canada.

Sorrels says he needs the combine to finish up harvest for his customers, and he only uses walker combines because he doesn’t have time to swap concaves between jobs. He cannot use a rotor-based combine, he emphatically states multiple times in his social media post.

I’m not trying to be a whistleblower or anything but I came face to face with a problem that every farmer or consumer in the United States and Canada needs to me aware of. This is an absolute joke and a mess but yet as always us common folk are caught in the middle of. It’s going… pic.twitter.com/MIQK56l4ef
— Ryan Sorrels (@Sorrels97) August 20, 2025

That much-needed New Holland walker combine never made it to the border, heck it never made it off the dealer lot where Sorrels purchased it. That’s because a new U.S.-Canada border trade regulation went into effect at midnight on Aug. 18, just days before Sorrels expected his much-need harvester to cross the border and start its southward journey to its forever home in Oklahoma.

Talk about bad timing.

“The Trump administration and some of them decided that to get this machine over the border we need to know where every ounce of steel on this combine — built in Zedelgem, Belgium — where it was smelted, where it was forged, and where it was cast. So that’s anything from the mainframe to the pulleys to the engine block, the rods, the crank, the cam — every piece of steel on this combine, we need to know where it came from,” he says in a video posted to X on Aug. 19. “And I cannot get this combine across the border, and they’re telling me I’m screwed.”

The new regulation that is “screwing” Sorrels, and his used combine purchase, is “CSMS # 65936570 - GUIDANCE: Section 232 Additional Steel Derivative Tariff Inclusion Products”.

You can read the full text of the trade guidance here.

The new guidance slaps a 50% tariff on imported steel products from Canada, and requires detailed reporting of each individual steel component’s country of origin, for tariff accounting purposes, before the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol will let it cross the border.

U.S. Custom Harvesters, Inc., Speaks Up

YES...this is real. And YES...it's real that certain equipment cannot cross the Canadian border.
CSMS # 65936570 - GUIDANCE: Section 232 Additional Steel Derivative Tariff Inclusion Products #customharvest #Tariffs
— US Custom Harvesters (@tweets_USCHI) August 20, 2025

That new guidance applies to combines like the one Sorrels purchased, but not to tillage tools, according to Mandi Seren, executive director, U.S. Custom Harvesters, Inc.

Currently, its unclear to many in the ag industry exactly what types of farm equipment are subject to the new guidance and which machines are not.

Sorrels’ custom harvesting business is a member of U.S. Custom Harvesters, Inc.

Seren also tells Farm Journal this new regulation is already saddling Canadian farm equipment manufacturers like AGI, MacDon, and others with hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra operational costs.

“Our governments, whether you’re American or Canadian, are acting like petulant children, and I cannot get this combine across the border, because everything they need to know to get this combine across the border, will probably take a minimum of eight years to figure out. This is a 2008 model machine, and it’s been on the North American continent ever since, it’s been here a minute, almost 20 years,” Sorells adds.

Here’s a 24 hour update on this problem @tweets_USCHI pic.twitter.com/v5n3RzSbi5
— Ryan Sorrels (@Sorrels97) August 20, 2025

“If you’re a farmer in the United States and you are going to try to get a MacDon header — and I’m not throwing you guys under the bus, I’m throwing the American government under the bus — but if you’re going to buy something used out of Canada, whether it’s a auger, a header, a combine, a trailer, anything, whatever it is, they will not let it across the border because they need to know where every single ounce of steel on that thing was manufactured, and its bulls---. It’s a crock of s---.”

Farm Journal has reached out to several Canadian farm equipment manufacturers, as well as the Association for Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), for comment, and we have not received any official statements or comments as of the posting of this article.

In an update posted to X.com on Aug. 20 (embedded above), Sorrels claims USDA Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and President Donald Trump are aware of the situation.

“My entire life and everything I’ve worked for for the last 20 years of my life hangs in the balance, and I’m trying not to overstep my bounds, but social media is pretty powerful,” Sorrels says. “But I’ve talked to some people here in Oklahoma — congressmen, senators — and they’re working on it. But right now, everything is kind of hanging in the balance, and I’m pretty p---ed off about it. And I got every right to be mad.

“I’m being railroaded right now by the country I was born in and the country I love, and right now they’re a bunch of f---ing kids and acting like petulant children, and I’m done with this. I’ve had enough,” he adds.

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Right To Repair Granted? John Deere Launches Digital Self-Repair Tool for $195 Per Tractor

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 15:29:04 GMT

In what appears to be a direct response to anti-competition claims raised in the ongoing FCC v. John Deere Right to Repair lawsuit , the equipment manufacturer has released an updated digital service tool to enable equipment owners to maintain, diagnose, repair and protect farm equipment.

The new Operations Center PRO Service tool is available now in John Deere’s Operation Center app to equipment owners in the U.S. and Canada.

John Deere says it will charge farmers an annual license starting at $195 per machine for the tool. The company is charging independent service professionals $5,995.00 per year, which includes up to 10 local downloads.

The increased functionality of the new service tool replaces John Deere’s previous digital service iteration, known as Customer Service ADVISOR. John Deere representatives confirm ADVISOR will be phased out over the next year.

What farmers need to know

John Deere says the new Operations Center PRO Service “delivers digital repair content filtered by year and model number and provides users with additional relevant machine information to help troubleshoot, diagnose and repair Deere equipment. It’s designed to be intuitive and deliver support in real time.”

Here are the new service and repair capabilities within the tool:

Machine health insights and diagnostic trouble codes
PIN-specific machine content, including manuals
Software reprogramming for John Deere controllers
Diagnostic Readings
Diagnostic Recordings
Interactive diagnostic tests
Calibrations

Quick Analysis

If you’ve been following the FCC v. John Deere Right to Repair lawsuit, you may recall FCC’s legal team asking the equipment manufacturer to release a full digital repair and diagnosis tool for farmers and independent service technicians as part of its filed request for injunctive relief.

Related: What Does Right to Repair Really Mean?

Right to Repair advocates and antitrust attorney James Kovac, along with the FCC’s legal team, at the time were critical of the Customer Service ADVISOR, calling it an incomplete diagnostic tool. Kovacs himself says “independent repair pros and the farmers have access to (the tool), but (it) doesn’t give them the full suite of options to repair all the needs of their farming equipment.”

What John Deere is saying about the new tool

“Our development of these tools reaffirms John Deere’s support of customer self-repair,” says Denver Caldwell, vice president of aftermarket and customer support with John Deere. “We view continuously enhancing self-repair as consistent with our mission to ensure John Deere customers have the best machine ownership experience possible.”

What about independent repair technicians?

(John Deere )

In addition to equipment owners, a local service provider can also use Operations Center PRO Service, John Deere says. With a John Deere equipment owner’s permission, independent technicians can gain access to diagnostic and repair information to support the equipment owner’s needs.

(JohnDeere.com screenshot)

On the John Deere online store, it currently lists a Operations Center PRO Service annual license for a “Service Business” as costing $5,995.00 . The license provides for 10 local downloads of the PRO Service application, the listing says.

“Our message to our customers is clear,” Caldwell continues. “Whether you want the support of your professionally trained and trusted John Deere dealer, to work with another local service provider or to fix your machine yourself, we’ve created additional capabilities for you to choose the option that best fits your needs.”

How does it work?

Equipment owners must access Operations Center PRO Service through the John Deere Operations Center. Once connected to the platform, owners will add their equipment into their account using the machine’s serial number. Use of an electronic data link might be required for more advanced features within Operations Center PRO Service, including software reprogramming. Certain interactive tests, calibrations and reprogramming limitations will exist at initial release.

John Deere says it will deliver additional capabilities in future updates. See JohnDeere.com/PROService for further details.

How can I find out more?

Operations Center PRO Service is available today. For more information on how to access all of the digital support tools offered by John Deere, visit Deere.com/RunItYourWay or see your local John Deere dealer.

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Precision Spray Drones: The Future of Invasive Species Control

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 15:32:35 GMT

While addressing weed control and pressing agronomic issues is a farmers’ priority during the growing season, ensuring adjacent wetlands and riparian buffer zones within crop fields are healthy and free of invasive species is imperative, too.

Today, there is novel research from the University of Waterloo showing a single, targeted herbicide application from a spray drone can suppress common invasive reed species with more than 99% effectiveness. The outcome is among many research findings recently published online in a Weed Science Society of America (WSSA) research journal.

If you’d really like to get into the weeds, you can review the full scientific study results here.

“The 99% reduction in live common reed stems observed with drone-based herbicide application demonstrates its capacity to suppress invasive common reed effectively,” says Rebecca Rooney, Ph.D., the University of Waterloo. Rooney is also a professor in the school’s biology department and the study’s corresponding author.

Rooney says the drone application method “matched or exceeded the efficacy of conventional helicopter and backpack applications.”

That’s a key aspect of the study findings because, as any farmer knows, managing invasive weeds in wetlands or buffer strips can pose significant challenges, due to limited access via hand weeding crews and ground rigs.

Spray drone applications allow for smaller spray widths and lower flight heights compared to manned helicopters, Rooney says, and the study results also show a reduction in off-target impacts and spray drift.

“This approach also holds promise for accelerating ecological recovery in wetland habitats,” says Rooney, adding that future research efforts around spray drone application in wetland settings should focus on long-term native vegetation recovery and quantify the accuracy of herbicide applications to minimize off-target damage to native vegetation in wetlands.”

Here’s a video from nuWay Ag showing the process of spray drone application in an Ohio wetland:

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Cattle Recover With Higher Cash: Grains Fall on CA Tariff News and Weather

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 14:49:11 GMT

Cattle futures are higher early Friday, as well as hogs. Grains are under pressure.

Nearby Live Cattle Negate Key Reversal With Higher Cash

Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower on Friday but quickly turned higher with strong cash news according to Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says cash bids are surfacing on Friday morning at $238 to $240 in the North.

Some sales were reported in the North late Thursday as high as $380 dressed to a regional and a handful of sales at $370 to $372 dressed and $235 live. In the South a few sales were reported at $225.

(At midday Friday, light volume in developing in the North at $238-$240 live, dressed at $380, $10 higher than last week’s weighted average in Nebraska. Southern live deals range $228 to $230, $4 to $6 higher.)

Live cattle futures had a disappointing close on Thursday making record highs on bullish news and then closing with nearby contracts lower putting in bearish key reversals.

It was a classic buy the rumor sell the fact trade says Varilek as the markets worked in bullish news including President Trump proposing a 50% tariff on Brazil imports, including beef.

Plus, USDA announced Wednesday evening the Southern border was once closing again to Mexican cattle imports due to concerns regarding New World Screwworm (NWS).

What Happens if the U.S. Gets New World Screwworm?

Currently there is no indication of when the border will reopen to Mexican cattle imports after a case of (NWS) was found just 370 miles from the U.S. border.

However, it may be inevitable that the pest gets into the U.S.

So how does the market react with a case if detected?

Varilek says it will initially be negative because the markets have never had to trade it before and there will be concerns that consumer demand may fall since this is a flesh eating pest that leave horrific images.

However, he says once that wears off the pest could be positive for the cattle market because it will again tighten the already historically cattle numbers.

“Producers needs to be prepared and make sure they are putting on hedges to protect their operation,” he says.

Lean Hogs Back Higher

Lean hog futures were also higher early Friday in tandem with cattle, but still seeing buying by funds on the breaks and the Lean Hog Index was also slightly higher reversing its lower trend.

Varilek thinks the market is being supported by disease and supplies issues and points to some $95 feeder pig prices as evidence of that.

Funds continue to be record long in the lean hogs and so far have defended that position on breaks.

Grains See Risk Off Selling From Weather and Canadian Tariff News

Grains and outside markets are trading risk off as President Donald Trump announced Thursday evening the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, effective Aug. 1. An exclusion for goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on trade was expected to stay in place.

However, Varilek says it still creates uncertainty in the markets and is a signal of rising tensions between the neighbors.

Weather has also been ideal and even dry areas of Northern Illinois received some rain over night with more in the forecast, which may also be pressuring grains ahead of the WASDE Report at 11:00 am.

Varilek doesn’t think the report will provide much meaningful news and even if it did it would not be traded long with the weather forecast so perfect for the Corn Belt and promoting ideas of a bumper crop.

All The Details: Inside John Deere’s New F8 and F9 Forage Harvesters

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 18:20:36 GMT

John Deere is rolling out two new forage harvesters for North American dairy producers and custom harvesting operations.

The brand new F8 and F9 Series feature three factory-installed operator cab options, a technology stack that will one day enable autonomous operation, and enhanced feed quality via an integrated inoculant dosing system.

How are F8 and F9 different?
The F8 Series (425PS to 645PS) is a narrow base model that takes the place of Deere’s 8000 Series forage harvester, while the F9 Series (700PS to 1020PS) replaces the 9000 Series. Within the F9 Series is the F9 1000, which is Deere’s largest forage harvest machine to date.

(Editor’s Note: “PS” stands for Pferdestärke, which is the German term for horsepower. PS to horsepower is not an apples-to-apples equal ratio. The F9 1000, for example, features 1020PS which equates to 1,006HP, according to the manufacturer.)

The F9 is available in two engine options:

John Deere 18X (no DEF required)
Liebherr V12 24L

It has five horsepower options, while the F8 comes with the JD14X engine and can be configured across six horsepower options.

The manufacturer last rolled out completely new forage harvesters in 2019.

How much will each new model cost?

The feed rolls on John Deere’s F8 and F9 forage harvesters have integrated metal detection to keep unwanted material out of your feed.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

John Deere is not sharing its pricing just yet, but the two new models are built at its Zweibrucken, Germany, factory. John Deere dealers will begin taking orders for the aggressively styled, technology-packed harvesters this fall, with final delivery in time for the 2026 forage harvesting season.

Deere representatives declined comment on what effect, if any, the still-developing U.S.and E.U. tariff situation could have on its launch plans.

Ahead of the launch, Farm Journal went to Madison, Wisc., to kick the tires and learn all about the new machines. The F8 and F9 harvesters we viewed and climbed into were the first finished production units off the factory line. Deere says several units will be field tested with U.S. customers ahead of the full fall launch.

“We’re really excited about the new cab and the technology we’ve added to these machines like central tire inflation, ground speed automation and the new kernel processing units,” says Bergen Nelson, go-to-market manager, combines and forage harvesters.

Here’s some of what we learned about the new forage harvesters:

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Cab Comforts: The same three operator cab options offered with Deere’s X and S Series combines — Select, Premium and Ultimate — are available on the F8 and F9 Series. A smoothly swiveling captain’s chair, as well as an all-new corner post display that shows real-time machine data, are among the additions. Operators who spend long hours in the cab will also appreciate integrated entertainment like SXM Radio and an optional mini fridge.

(Matthew J. Grassi )

Foundational Deere Tech Stack: Each new forage harvester in the series includes Deere’s baseline precision tech enablement stack — which consists of its G5 display, Starfire 7500 receiver and JDLink modem.

Central Tire Inflation System: A completely new feature (top left inset photo) within the G5 display allows the operator to adjust front tire PSI up or down from the cab.

John Deere Inoculant Dosing System 2.0

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Inoculant Dosing System 2.0: New on both the F8 and F9, a high-volume 85 gallon inoculant tank and integrated pump allow the user to accurately adjust silage inoculant dosage rates from the G5 display in the cab. The system is easy to pump and prime as well with the touch of a button located at the rear of the machine.

Ground Speed Automation: This cruise control-like option reads RPMs and throttles the harvester up or down based on crop conditions. For example, harvesting corn at higher moisture levels will increase power output, so the machine will automatically slow down to ensure it doesn’t plug up or do a sub-optimal job harvesting. This feature comes standard on all base models for both series and does not require a yearly subscription unlock or per-acre fee.

Pro Touch Harvest: Another new feature within the G5 display allows the operator to shift the machine from road transport mode to harvest mode in a single click. It can also be used to quickly engage AutoTrac and ground speed automation once the operator arrives at the edge of field.

This all-new XStream 305 Kernel Processing (KP) unit is built by Scherer in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

New Kernal Processing (KP) Units: The new harvesters feature two completely redesigned KP units, the Ultimate 250 (also made in Germany) and the Scherer XStream 305, which is made in Sioux Falls, S.D. An integrated winch and internal rail mounting system makes switching the machine from corn forage to hay forage in the field quick and simple. The number signifies each KP unit’s roll diameter width in millimeters.

“Both KPs will go in both machines and have four different roll options depending on how aggressive the dairyman wants their end feed quality to be,” says Shane Campbell, product marketing manager, forage harvesters.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Integrated Harvest Lab 3000: This on-demand constituent sensing module pulls over 4,000 samples per second with +/- 2% accuracy, and John Deere says it can save dairy operations time and money versus collecting and sending samples to a lab. The sensor tech (available as an add-on option) enables accurate measurement and documentation of dry matter, starch, protein, neutral detergent fiber and acid detergent fiber for both harvested forage and manure. The data can be stored, organized and shared via Deere’s Operations Center. Within Operations Center, users can take geo-referenced data and build out spatial starch content — as well as moisture and protein — maps for hybrid selection and fertility management. Because if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.

Active Fill Control 3.0: Using sensors and cameras on the grain spout, this tech feature automatically detects the trailer or grain cart next to the forage harvester and begins filling it with a preselected fill strategy. This reduces the number of times an operator has to adjust the spout manually and also lessens fatigue and neck strain, according to Deere.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

New Operating Modes: Several of the models within the F9 Series offer what Deere is calling its “Engine Power Plus” feature — which gives a sizeable horsepower boost when the machines senses it needs a little extra chopping power to the harvesting head. There is also an ECO mode that can be toggled on when the machines don’t need the extra torque.

Ease-Of-Access: Both models have side and rear panels that easily open to grant full access to the inner workings of the machines, making the new forage harvesters much easier to service and maintain without a lift or other heavy specialized equipment. The machine is setup so techs and mechanically-minded farmers will not have to climb underneath it to perform daily maintenance.

“At the end of the day, we know it’s all about the cow, and these machines will put out quality feed,” Nelson says. “We’ll have these out at the farm shows this summer, including Farm Progress Show, World Ag Expo, World Dairy Expo and the U.S. Custom Harvesters Convention.”

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Mark Carney’s Liberal Win: What It Means for Canadian Agriculture and U.S. Relations

Fri, 02 May 2025 18:09:47 GMT

America’s neighbor to the north has elected a new leader. The result is not a huge surprise to farmers across Canada, but it’s fair to say Liberal Party leader and new Prime Minister Mark Carney likely wasn’t many farmers’ first choice, either.

“I would say farmers are frustrated with the track record of what the (Liberal) Party’s done for agriculture over the last 12 years, and they are probably pretty concerned if they’ll see any change over the next four years,” says Saskatchewan farmer Kristjan Hebert when asked how his farming brethren felt about the result.

Shaun Haney, founder of RealAgriculture and host of RealAg Radio , thinks the aggressive rhetoric from President Donald Trump around the U.S. possibly annexing Canada as the 51st state had an impact. The Conservatives had a large lead in many polls leading up to the election, but there was a seismic shift as Election Day approached.

“The Conservatives couldn’t get out of the trough of many Canadians making the assumption they were just going to roll over to President Trump, which I don’t think was true but definitely was the branding they were labeled with, and now Mark Carney’s first election is over and he’s going to be the prime minister,” he says.

(iStock/Lori Hays)

If there is a silver lining for conservative-leaning Canadian farmers, Haney views Carney as better equipped to manage the high-wire tightrope walk that is dealing with Trump. The U.S. President did back away from the 51st state rhetoric post-election, and the two men share similar backgrounds in global finance. There appears to be a degree of respect between the two.

“I think (Carney) has the opportunity to get some respect (from Trump) in the sense that he’s worked in those circles, but he has been very pro on the climate file, which he backed off during the election. He’s going to want to park that if he’s going to stay out of some of the ire of President Trump,” Haney adds.

Haney talked about the Canadian Election results on AgriTalk today. You can listen to the “Free for all Friday” discussion here:

From the farmer point of view, Hebert says there are actually a few Trump policies that he and many Canadian farmers support; he just wants more respect from the U.S. leader.

“I think most (Canadian farmers) would argue he has enough things to right on his own ship before he needs to worry about everybody else’s,” he says.

One ag market that may become a political football is the dairy industry. There is a lot of shared interests between the two countries in that realm, and Canada has slapped a protectionist 200% tariff on U.S. dairy exports for years, as Dairy Herd Management editor Karen Bohnert wrote in an analysis piece in March.

“Dairy’s going to be really fascinating,” Haney says. “One of the outcomes of the election is the Liberals are going to need support from some of the other parties. That’s going to come from the New Democratic Party or it’s going to come from The Bloc Quebecois, which is based in Quebec. And where is the Canadian Dairy lobby the strongest? Well, it’s in Quebec. So, it’s going to be really fascinating to see where they go on dairy negotiations.”

Another industry with close cross-border ties is the farm equipment manufacturing world. The tariff situation has hit that market with brute force. Many farmers are delaying purchases of new tractors, combines and sprayers until the situation clears up. Manufacturers have responded by laying off factory workers and slowing production of new machines.

An example of the cross-border journey of one piece of agriculture equipment from raw material to delivery on the farm.

(AEM)

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“Six or seven years ago, spending was full bore and it was a good time (in the industry),” Hebert says. “Right now, operations are really looking for efficiencies, and that includes asset turnover, capital utilization and the efficiency of production models. You’re going to see producers really focus on using every dollar to maximize efficiency because the margins just aren’t wide enough right now.”

Haney hopes both countries can come to the table and realize a united North America is stronger than one divided.

“This is a critical trading relationship and economic partnership between two countries that neighbor each other; there are bigger fish to fry,” he says. “China, Brazil and India — those are the countries where we need to be working together and focusing on a partnership, rather than battling each other.”

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Opinion: We Are One Step Closer to Fortress North America

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 16:00:27 GMT

“Turn your obstacles into opportunities and your problems into possibilities.” – Roy T. Bennett

I am not sure what your plans were for U.S. “Liberation Day,” but I was tied to a TV to listen to what U.S. President Trump was going to say about his tariff strategy.

Through a Canadian lens, I would say that of all the possible directions that President Trump could have gone, this was a real win for Canada. This is two weeks in a row where Canada can feel like it can breathe. And it was another step closer to the “Fortress North America” approach to trade.

There are still some grave concerns related to the auto tariffs, steel and aluminum tariffs, and other tariffs — Canada is still not out of the trade war crosshairs of President Trump. The April 2nd announcement, however, seems to signal that Mexico and Canada are different than the rest of the countries the U.S. is dealing with.

Canada has felt serious heat since President Trump entered the White House for the second time, being treated similarly to nefarious trade actors China and India. In the last two weeks, Canada has fallen back to a more comfortable position of not being an enemy, but an ally in some respects.

It will be a serious gut check for Canadians at a time when the country has “elbows up” and anti-American sentiment is at a generational high. Again, the Trump announcement on Wednesday was a step towards Fortress North America, to borrow the term Doug Ford likes to use, but I am not sure Canadians understand what is potentially in play.

Fortress North America is a concept where Canada and Mexico are more entrenched with the United States than they have ever been. It involves deeply integrated supply chains, shared trade and security interests, regional self-reliance on critical commodities and goods, and mutually aligned trade protections versus economic foes. Whether it is regulatory alignment, stronger border enforcement, or parallel tariff strategies, Canada and Mexico are going to be pushed to think more about North America over the European Union, Asia, or South America over the next four years, and possibly beyond.

Not everyone will agree with this strategy, I am well aware of that. I would put the RealAg audience into four buckets of thought on who Canada should be seeing as its true economic partner.

The United States and Mexico: We are already in USMCA, but President Trump’s approval is very low in Canada.
Europe: Europeans are polite, nice, and care about similar social issues, plus our government is follows British/European tradition vs American.
China: Could be the new largest economy in the world and buys very large volumes of ag commodities.
Inter-provincial trade barriers just need to be dropped and then we don’t need to worry about exports as much.

Canada can attempt all four, but there is one clear priority in my opinion.

This may be the first you have heard this “Fortress North America” term, but it has been around for a while. For many of you, tying Canada into a deeper U.S. relationship fresh off of the 51st state threats seems counterintuitive, but the numbers speak for themselves.

Canada exports just under $600 billion a year to the U.S., while EU buys $35 billion and China buys $30 billion per year — it’s not anywhere close, in dollars. Canada’s first economic priority is securing its strong economic ties to the United States.

Canada is on a trajectory where it is about to be more tied to the United States economically than less. At a time when some Canadians are pushing for deeper trade diversification, Canada is propelling itself toward a decision that will alter its relationship with China and others. In a multipolar world, Canada cannot ride the fence and will be forced, due to its American adjacency to choose its economic partner.

Put simply, Canada must choose: China or the United States, it can’t be both.

I have been talking about this scenario in many of my keynotes when I share this slide.

If Fortress North America is the reality, there are going to be some moments of adjustment and uncomfortableness for Canadians.

For example, Canadian farmers are upset about the canola meal, canola oil, pea, and pork tariffs placed on Canada by China in response to Canada’s EV tariffs. These tariffs placed by Canada on China are a prelude of what is to come where Canada and Mexico are in step with the U.S. against China. Sorry canola growers, expect more tariffs on China and not less. The Americans already pushed Canada to apply a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs. Consider that after today’s announcement by the President the effective tariff rate for Chinese goods into the United States will be 54%. Will the Americans ask Canada to do the same? Will Canada be asked to charge a docking fee on Chinese ships if the U.S. does? Time will tell, but a theoretical fortress requires walls.

There are risks to Canada in this strategy: a loss in autonomy, a weak U.S. economy or recession that would impact Canada in greater amounts, and possible deterrents to some Canadian trade diversification efforts with U.S. economic foes. To the latter point, this kind of language was written into the USMCA deal in Article 32.10, which requires USMCA countries to notify each other three months in advance if they intend to negotiate a trade agreement with a non-market country, such as China.

Canada is in the middle of an election and no matter which party wins, the new Prime Minister will be charged with the task of maintain Canada’s access in the U.S. economic fortress along with Mexico before any other challenge. It’s the number one election issue and it will be post election as well. Canadians need to be prepared for “Fortress North America.”

Founder of RealAgriculture and RealAg Radio, Shaun Haney manages one of the leading ag media companies for Canadian farmers and ranchers.

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BREAKING: CNH Halts Farm Equipment Shipments From North America, Europe To Assess Tariff Situation

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 22:03:55 GMT

In North America, we are stopping shipments from North America plants and European imports effective today. This is a temporary move until we assess the full impact of planned tariffs on pricing. There are no impacts to production and parts shipments continue as planned. We will continue to monitor the situation.CNH Industrial has confirmed online reports it will temporarily pause farm equipment shipments from North American factories as well as from its European counterparts, effective immediately.

Here is CNH Industrial’s statement in full:

“In North America, we are stopping shipments from North America plants and European imports effective today. This is a temporary move until we assess the full impact of planned tariffs on pricing. There are no impacts to production and parts shipments continue as planned. We will continue to monitor the situation.”

CNH Industrial official statement

Quick Analysis

It’s a stunning move the international equipment giant is directly linking to the ongoing global tariff situation. President Donald Trump’s wide-reaching tariff strategy is set to go in motion April 2 (pending any last-minute shifts) and is projected to have sweeping implications for agriculture businesses and economies around the globe.

In addition, this development might represent yet another warning sign the global ag economy is entering a period of recession.

If this feels like a complete surprise to many in the equipment industry that’s because it likely is.

CNH’s latest earnings report call, on Feb. 4, did not contain any mention of the possibility the company would halt shipments. In that call CEO Gerrit Marx did note a 34% reduction in production had already been set in motion in Q4 2024. He attributed the move as a strategy to help lower dealer inventories by over $700 million.

Marx also shared the company is always actively monitoring the tariff situation, a development Case IH head of North America Kurt Coffey previously disclosed to Farm Journal during the National Farm Machinery Show in mid-February , but Marx also mentioned on the Feb. 4 earnings call that at the time it was “too early” to fully assess (tariff) impacts.

Our 2025 update to “ Who Makes What Where ” showed Case IH builds 66% of its row-crop machines throughout North America, while 24% of them are manufactured in Europe.

New Holland itself maintains a fairly balanced manufacturing presence between the two continents, with Europe (30%) and North America (43%) hosting its largest manufacturing footprints.

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Cross-Border Tensions: Canadian Farmers Fear No One Will Win In A Trade War

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 18:55:12 GMT

As President Donald Trump continues to use tariffs to negotiate, the relationship between the U.S. and Canada is growing more tense. And farmers fear if they’re caught in the middle of another trade war, it will impact not only the commodities they sell, but the inputs they rely on each year.

“As you’re heading into this planting season, what are you most concerned about?” I asked Maurine Chauvin, a farmer who goes by ‘Moe” in Essex County, Ontario.

“Tariffs, I think, are the No. 1 issue between our nations, and you know, all we want is to get back to our friendly trading that we’ve always had as neighbors,” he said.

Chauvin farms in a province of Canada situated in the southwestern corner of Ontario. It’s basically just on the Canadian side of Detroit, which means much he relies heavily on what comes from the U.S.

His current focus should be on planting and nurturing his wheat that’s sprouted in the field, but instead, he’s concerned about trade. As for the wheat, it’s benefited from a steady dose of winter weather this year.

“It looks pretty good; there was some low spots. You’re wondering how it’s going to turn out when it sits under water and ice for so long, but as farmers, I think we always have to be hopeful come spring,” Chauvin said.

That’s what farmers do. They remain hopeful, even when the reality of farming through another trade war seems bleak.

“As a farmer, are you concerned about the current dynamic,” I asked Chauvin.

“Absolutely. How can you not be? It’s very concerning,” Chauvin said. “As Ontario farmers, we rely on a lot of inputs and important pieces to put our crop in the ground, and you know, from the seed, fertilizer, chemicals, farm equipment — it can all be affected.”

It’s not just the tariffs possibly placed on the crops he grows this year, as retaliatory tariffs could also cause the cost of inputs he relies on from the U.S. to rise.

“In my eyes, nobody wins,” he said. “I think all we’d like to see is to have free trade come back and have some good long trade between our nations like we’ve always had.”

The concern is being echoed by farmers all across Canada.

“It’s the unknown and getting my crop on my own farm in in a timely manner without any surprises as far as added costs. Margins are slim, commodity prices are low, so there’s no room for error,” said Jeff Harrison, who’s a farmer and the current chair of the Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO).

Harrison thinks this trade war could be more devastating than the last.

“There is more on the table. Costs have gone up tremendous post-Covid. We all see what’s happened in our own lives with inflation, everything costs more. So, there’s more on the table for a farmer, more on the line, more risk,” Harrison said.

That risk is something GFO is stressing to Canadian policymakers.

“If we look at trade war between Canada and the U.S., what we’re coming from is decades of one of the best trading relationships anywhere in the world,” said Crosby Devitt, CEO of GFO. “And so when we look at it, it’s quite alarming to us that we’re even in the situation, first of all, but certainly I think the risk is that we could erode decades of great relationships.”

As CEO of GFO, Devitt leads an organization that represents 28,000 barley, corn, oat, soybean and wheat farmers across Ontario. He says for Ontario farmers, it’s the unknown causing so much angst.

“Certainly, when we look at what we bring into Canada from the U.S. in terms of our farming supplies — a lot of our inputs, like fertilizers, phosphorus and nitrogen, for example — there’s a lot of uncertainty there,” he said. “Seed definitely flows both ways, but one of the big areas of concern that I hear from farmers is machinery and machinery parts. So there’s certainly a lot of machinery production in the U.S. that we rely on [for] buying that equipment into Canada, but also parts. And so there’s a lot of uncertainty around where the supply chain might go and how that’s going to be affected.”

Secretary Rollins Defends Trump’s Use of Tariffs
During a recent interview with Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins defended the president’s use of tariffs, saying he’s holding Canada accountable.

“This president’s vision of tariffs [is] such an important part of his toolkit as he begins to realign the economy to put America first, to put our men and women, our families first. Everybody knows, and when they voted in November of 2024, they knew that’s what they were voting for. And so as we see the president begin to rollout, as we see him hold accountable Canada with their 250% tariffs on our dairy products, as they see him hold accountable, Mexico, China, all these countries where we have a 5% on our end when our products go out. They’ve got 15%, so three times, this is on average, on their end when their products come in. It’s not fair. And it’s got to be equalized as we move toward more free trade,” said Rollins.

Rollins pointed out the president has been very clear that there will be an interim period where the economy readjusts.

“Real transformation takes these harder decisions, and no one’s willing to do that, except now President Trump is,” Rollins said during the interview. “So, obviously 100 % behind it. I am talking to farmers every single day. They know that the president has their back. They know and are prepared for potentially, you know, an interim period as we move toward what the president has said is the greatest age of prosperity not just for all Americans, But for our farmers in our ranchers as well.”

No Compensation for Canadian Farmers
One major difference between the U.S. and Canada is that during the last trade war, U.S. farmers received Market Facilitation Program payments, or MFP. Those were designed to help compensate farmers for the market losses they suffered. In Canada, commodity prices were hit just as hard, but there were no payments to farmers.

“We have a very different system in Canada in terms of farm support or our business risk management programs we call them,” said Devitt. “We do have, you know, a crop insurance program for example that’s really just a yield-based insurance program. That’s the main one, but there are other programs, but nothing that would be specifically designed to handle a system disruption like this in our marketplace.”

Farmers Are On the Front lines
It’s farmers who were on the front lines of the last trade war, and GFO is concerned farmers will get hit hard again.

“We don’t know how to win a trade war, but we do know that Ontario and Canadian farmers will pay the price for that trade war, along with our United States counterparts,” said Miller. “But we need our government to know that retaliatory tariffs will hurt our own farmers. Good decisions need to be made.”

Farmers like Chauvin hear all the noise but are trying to focus on controlling what they can — and that’s planting and harvesting this year’s crop. But out of the three crops Chauvin grows — corn, soybeans and wheat — he doesn’t know which crop will be caught in the middle of a trade war this time around.

“Nobody really knows. I’ve been asking that question, and all crops are concerning, because Ontario farming is a $6 billion export business to the U.S. Those are big numbers, and it’s concerning,” Chauvin said.

But this Canadian farmer says, in his mind, one things for certain: No one wins in a trade war.

“I mean our concerns are the same and we all live to put the crop in the ground, and farming runs in your blood, and it doesn’t matter if you’re American or Canadian, we all want to put the crop in the ground and feed the world,” Chauvin said.

Your Next Read:

Take Our Poll: Do You Agree With President Trump's Use of Tariffs?

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 17:07:04 GMT

Tariff whiplash is consuming the commodity markets — and the possible impact is stirring up quite the debate. At present, President Donald Trump says he’s sticking to his plan to impose additional tariffs on the United States’ top three trading partners starting April 2.

In early February, President Trump announced a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico , a 10% additional tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada.

Those tariffs were scheduled to go into effect in early March. However, President Trump made the decision to exempt goods from Canada and Mexico under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USCMA) from the 25% tariffs for another month.

What we know today is those exemptions for goods from Canada and Mexico covered under USMCA are scheduled to expire on April 2.

As agriculture waits to see what happens, the commodity markets continue to trade headlines and concerns are mounting about possible retaliatory tariffs. Tariff talk is already impacting input prices for farmers heading into spring.

Share Your Thoughts on Tariffs
In light of the ongoing tariff battle, we have two questions for you:

Do you support President Donald Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiation strategy?
Do you believe USDA will compensate farmers for losses if agriculture is affected by a trade war, similar to the compensation provided through the Market Facilitation Program?

Click here to share your answers.

NOTE: We appreciate your input. The poll has been closed. Check back on Monday, March 24 for results and analysis.

When Do Ag Markets Quit Trading Tariffs and Start Trading Their Own Fundamentals?

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 15:42:49 GMT

Cattle, hogs and corn see early strength Friday with wheat and soybeans lower.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says it has been a roller coaster ride on tariffs all week on the markets including yesterday’s delay to Mexican and Canadian tariffs on USMCA compliant products until April 2.

So when do the markets become numb to the ever changing tariff news and go back to trading their own fundamentals?

Varilek says black swan events like the Black Sea war that broke in May of 2022 lead to highly volatile markets but in that case the news and uncertainty became priced in after a few weeks and even today news out of that region rarely moves the market.

The cattle market looks like it could close higher for the week despite the lack of cash news and melt down in the stock market.

Cash has been very light this week but some cattle have sold in the South at $196 to $197, steady to $1 lower than last week and Northern trade has been light at $310-$312 dressed and $198 live.

Shortly after this broadcast some $200 was traded in the North with bids being raised to $201 and passed on.

Packers have been able to pull formula cattle at the start of this new month.

The charts look more constructive according to Varilek with April live cattle able to get above the 100 day moving average at $198.75, so he is hopeful for additional recovery.

Lean hog futures are up this morning with a reprieve on Mexican tariffs and counter taxes that may have targeted pork.

Funds have liquidated a chunk of their length in the lean hogs but are holding together with decent demand as exports yesterday were strong and included Mexico and China as the top two buyers.

Grain futures are mixed with corn trying to extend gains but soybeans and wheat struggling.

Grain markets rebounded nicely the last two sessions on the tariff delays and corrective the oversold market status.

Grain Markets Continue Relief Rally on Tariff Delays: Is it a Deadcat Bounce?

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 22:38:33 GMT

Grain and hog markets closed higher on Thursday with cattle lower.

Allison Thompson of The Money Farm says grains markets extended gains for a second day with talk of ag exemptions and then another 30 day extension on tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Grain markets were oversold after several days of lower closes on fear of tariffs and counter measures from major trading partners.

Is it just a dead cat bounce?

Thompson says she thinks a recovery is in store but all of the markets have seen technical damage with the recent collapse and need to close back above 50 and 100 day moving averages to confirm the rally can continue.

Weekly exports were decent with corn at 35.8 million bu., soybeans at 13 million bu. and wheat at 12.4 million bu. so that was also supportive.

Hog markets also rallied on the news with Mexico the top export market for U.S. pork and fear of the product being on the retaliation list.

Cattle futures set back as the tariffs actually prevented imports from Mexico and Canada competing in the U.S. market.

However, the melt down in the stock market and the steady to $2 lower cash trade in the South at $195-$197, also weighed on the cattle futures.

Grain Markets Sink on Tariff Retaliation: How Long Will It Take To Price It In?

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 22:37:35 GMT

Grain and hog markets end sharply lower Tuesday, with cattle holding gains.

Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says the grain markets made new lows for the move with a risk off day that featured fund liquidation and technical selling pressure.

It was triggered by announced retaliation by China, Mexico and Canada to the U.S. tariffs that kicked in on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on imports went into effect at 12:01 a.m. ET Tuesday, marking a significant escalation in global trade tensions

China put retaliatory tariffs on a list of U.S. ag products including 25% levies on corn, wheat and cotton, plus 10% tariffs on soybeans.

Mexico is also announcing counter measures over the weekend and has vowed to include ag products.

That sent corn, soybeans, wheat and hogs to new lows for the move as funds liquidated more of their long position in corn and added to their short position in soybeans and wheat.

How long will it take for the market to stabilize?

McCormick says, “I think we will see pressure through at least the end of the week, unless something changes with the tariff negotiations.”

He says this tariff war is somewhat different than in 2018 as it includes not just China, but also Mexico and Canada which are all top trading customers for the U.S.

Significant technical damage was done to the grain charts and McCormick thinks that could lead to additional selling unless President Trump is able to reach a deal with any of the affected countries.

McCormick speculates that President Trump is using the tariffs as not just a way to balance trade but to finance tax cuts.

The war could result in higher inflation and cause the Fed to pivot on interest rates which would cause further liquidation of index funds.

Lean hog futures also suffered significant losses as Mexico may put tariffs on U.S. pork imports and it is the top market for U.S. product.

Cattle bounced into the close as tariffs on Mexican feeder cattle and beef imports would further tighten supplies.

Additionally, the futures are at a discount to the cash trade, which has been quiet this week.

Mexico and Canada Take Additional Actions to Ward Off U.S. Tariffs

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 20:18:20 GMT

A global stock selloff extended from Asia into Europe as investors worried that President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China could hurt economic growth. Asian shares fell as much as 2.5%, while the dollar strengthened. Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting March 4, with Chinese imports facing an additional 10% levy.

Economists warn the move could slow U.S. growth, fuel inflation, and trigger recessions in Mexico and Canada. China vowed “all necessary measures” in response, while Hong Kong saw some of the biggest losses, particularly in Chinese tech stocks.

The euro is at risk of further falls as markets are not fully priced for the prospect of a global trade war, ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note.

The U.S. economy is also showing early signs of strain as President Trump’s aggressive tariffs and federal spending cuts disrupt businesses, weaken consumer confidence, and spark concerns over inflation.

Job cuts across government agencies and funding freezes are forcing local officials to explore tax hikes and bond issuances to stabilize budgets.

Economists warn that escalating trade tensions and regulatory uncertainty could further dampen growth, with projections of higher inflation and slower economic expansion. While the administration insists its policies will strengthen the private sector, financial markets and businesses remain uneasy about the near-term outlook.

Trump Confirms Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Additional Hike on China

President Trump announced that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4 as planned, citing inadequate efforts to curb drug trafficking.

Additionally, he declared a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods, doubling the previous levy imposed earlier this month. The move has drawn criticism from businesses and trade groups, warning of economic strain and higher consumer costs.

While Canada and Mexico have taken measures to address U.S. concerns, China’s response remains muted, potentially setting the stage for further trade tensions.

Mexico Extradites Top Cartel Figures to U.S.
In a historic crackdown on cartel operations, Mexico has transferred 29 high-profile cartel operatives to U.S. custody, including Rafael Caro Quintero, the infamous Sinaloa cartel leader wanted for decades.

The move, seen as a major victory for the Trump administration, signals increased co-operation between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. authorities. Among those extradited is Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales, the notorious ex-leader of the Zetas cartel.

The mass transfer underscores ongoing diplomatic efforts to combat cartel violence and the drug trade across the U.S./Mexico border.

Will this and perhaps other measures that may be announced in the coming days be enough to impact the Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Mexico currently slated to take place March 4? Mexico authorities have arrested more than 700 people since early February, when President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops along the U.S.-Mexico border. Sheinbaum said she was planning to have a telephone conversation with Trump in the coming days to follow up on the agreements reached by both leaders early this month. “We hope that we can make this call to close the agreement,” she said this week.

Canada’s ‘Fentanyl Czar’
As for Canada, it sent the country’s new “fentanyl czar” and cabinet ministers to meet with Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, this week. Canada named the czar as part of an agreement earlier this month with Trump to increase its efforts to curb the amount of fentanyl crossing over from Canada to the U.S. Canada has argued that the amount of fentanyl seized at the Canadian border is a fraction of what is found at the southern border.

Even More U.S. Tariff Hikes Ahead
There are several actions set for April 2, from the completion of trade policy reviews ordered on Inauguration Day to the unveiling of 25% tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.

That is also the planned date for the announcement of Trump’s levies on reciprocal trade, which will seek to equalize U.S. tariffs with the duties and nontariff barriers imposed by other nations.

A White House official said a report will be released on April 2 that will “outline the equivalent tariff rate” for other nations and the “mechanics for how they would be implemented.” Details for some countries might be released before others, the official added. The official also declined to comment on the timeline for reciprocal tariffs, but said any talk of a bottleneck in implementing the trade agenda is “premature.”

Trump Trade Strategy Unfolding
Trump administration officials believe that a trade policy combining reciprocal trade action with sector-specific tariffs would be legally stronger and cause less disruption than a broad tariff approach.

This strategy would still allow the U.S. to impose tariffs on significant parts of the economy while minimizing harm to consumers and markets. The sectoral tariffs, particularly on steel, aluminum, and copper, could be announced on April 2. However, their implementation would likely fall under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which permits tariffs on national security grounds.

This process generally requires a 30-day notice and comment period, except for steel and aluminum tariffs, which are based on an existing investigation and may be enacted more quickly.

Trump Sows Confusion on Tariffs for Canada and Mexico, Floats 25% Duty for EU Goods

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 21:25:22 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday raised hopes for another month-long pause on steep new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2, and floated a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on European cars and other goods.

A White House official, however, said Trump’s previous March 4 deadline for the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending his review of Mexican and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of migrants and the opioid fentanyl into the U.S. Trump sowed confusion during his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday, when he was asked about the timing for the start of the duties for Canada and Mexico and replied that it would be April 2.

“I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2, I was going to do it on April 1,” Trump said. “But I’m a little bit superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all ofthem but a lot of them.”

Trump’s comments prompted jumps in the value of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.

Canada’s Finance Ministry and Mexico’s Economy Ministry both declined to comment on Trump’s remarks.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the fentanyl-related actions were paused for 30 days but referred to “overall” tariffs on April 2. He did not specify whether the March 4 deadline was still in effect.

“So the big transaction is April 2, but the fentanyl-related things, we’re working hard on the border,”
Lutnick said during the cabinet meeting. “At the end of that 30 days, they have to prove to the president that they’ve satisfied him in that regard. If they have, he’ll give them a pause, or he won’t.”

EU Tariff Rate

Trump has targeted early April for imposing reciprocal tariffs that would match the import duty rates of other countries and offset their other restrictions. His trade advisers consider European countries’ value added taxes to be akin to a tariff.

Trump, asked whether he has decided on a tariff rate for goods from the European Union, replied: “We have made a decision, and we’ll be announcing it very soon, and it’ll be 25%, generally speaking, and that’ll be on cars, and all of the things.”

He said the EU is a “different case” from Canada and takes advantage of the U.S. in different ways.

“They don’t accept our cars. They don’t accept, essentially our farm products,” Trump said, adding that the EU was formed “in order to screw the United States.”

Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, is in Washington and will meet U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday, a spokesman said. She is not slated to meet with any Trump administration officials.

New U.S. Trade Representative Confirmed

Also on Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted 56-43 to confirm Jamieson Greer as Trump’s new U.S. Trade Representative, putting a veteran of the Republican president’s first-term trade wars fully on the job.

Greer, who served as chief of staff to former USTR Robert Lighthizer, won the support of five Democrats, including both senators from Michigan, the center of the U.S. auto industry.

Trade groups welcomed Greer’s confirmation, lauding his commitment to consulting with industry and standing up for U.S. businesses, farmers and workers. “We share Ambassador Greer’s desire for an active and pragmatic trade policy that creates

U.S. jobs and more resilient supply chains,” said Jake Colvin, president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Greer told senators during his Senate confirmation hearing that he wanted to quickly renegotiate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade to ensure China does not use it as a back door to the U.S. market to avoid other tariffs.

“Right out of the gate, I expect that we’ll be taking a second look at the USMCA,” Greer said.

Asked what changes he would like to see in the pact, Greer zeroed in on further tightening automotive content rules.

“I think we should look at the rule of origin for automobiles and aerospace and other things to look and see if we need to have any kind of restriction on content or value added from foreign countries of concern, or non-market economies,” he said, using language that U.S. trade officials often use to describe China.

(Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal; additional reporting by Bo Erickson and Ryan Jones in Washington, Brendan O’Boyle in Mexico City and Ismail Shakil in Ottawa; Editing by Dan Burns, David Gregorio and Paul Simao)

What to Expect During USDA's Ag Outlook Forum This Week

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 15:41:25 GMT

USDA’s 101st Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held Feb. 27-28 near Washington, DC, with the theme of “Meeting Tomorrow’s Challenges, Today.” The look at corn and soybean acreage under current conditions will be among the key focal points during the event, but it will also be key to see how USDA paints an export outlook with so much uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade.

Farm Journal Washington correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer says USDA produced its budget-related figures last fall that were part of the agricultural projections publication that was released ahead of the conference.

“It is not clear how much the figures released next week will change relative to the initial budget-related outlooks,” Wiesemeyer says.

We interviewed Seth Meyer, chief economist with USDA, during the Top Producer Summit last week. He provided a preview for the Ag Outlook Forum, saying he will talk about farm income margins for crops and livestock, which are two very different stories. Meyer says one of the challenging parts is trying to forecast the trade picture, even with the uncertainty around tariffs. USDA will also look at the impact of foreign animal diseases on the livestock sector during the Ag Outlook Forum this week.

What’s Meyer’s overall outlook on 2025? It’s a tad more positive than 2024.

“This is a strange statement to appear bullish, but maybe we’ve hit the bottom. Six months ago, things were getting pretty bad, pretty fast. Hopefully we’ve hit a bottom on some of this and seen a little bit of rebound and maybe a little bit better on demand, especially on corn, as we see a little bit of a rebound. So, I’m kind of hopeful that maybe things aren’t going to get a bunch worse on the crop side,” Meyer says.

While he’s more optimistic, Meyer points out here are still a plethora of challenges in the ag economy, especially with tight margins on the crops side.

“For things like cotton, we’ve continued to see price erode,” Meyer says. “We started at an 80 cent forecast. We’re now down to 64.5 cents, and 80 cents wasn’t going to make you a bundle of money at the time either. So I think we go through these periods of crop prices where input prices are slower to correct. And it makes a really disruptive time as that adjustment happens, and we’re in that disruptive time.”

The Difficulty of Forecasting Trade
USDA analysts in the forecasts released later this week are not expected to make any assumptions on the impact of potential tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities. For the WASDE report, the analysts use the policy actions that are in effect at the time and their outlooks presented next week should follow that track.

“We will produce an outlook which is policy in place,” Meyer says. “So, while there’s been a lot of talk about tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, tariffs on Canada and tariffs on Mexico, right now, we don’t have anything in place. So we’ll do an outlook absent that.”

Meyer says the team at USDA is in the middle of building tools to show the possible impacts of tariffs on trade.

“We’re making sure we have the tools in place to understand what the impact on agriculture is from such actions. So we are prepared internally to do the calculations necessary to support the secretary of agriculture,” Meyer said.

2025 Acreage in Focus
This is USDA’s first glimpse at acreage. Even though it’s not the survey-based estimate, which will be released at the end of March, it’s still the market’s first 2025 acreage data to digest. While Meyer couldn’t reveal any early acreage projections, he acknowledged the trend for more corn acres this year, but says soybeans are also trying to compete for acres.

Meyer wasn’t able to give his acreage estimates, but Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says if USDA is aggressive and pencils a 94 million acre number on corn, that could be bearish to the market.

“We’re at 93 million acres at AgResource Company, and I just got back from a conference in Jonesboro in the Delta, and I was just shocked how many Delta farmers want to plant corn and abandon cotton and rice,” Basse told U.S. Farm Report. “We will do a survey again in the middle of March, but our surveys are pointing upward, and I wouldn’t be surprised by 94 million plus at some point.”

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX Group says his current estimates aren’t quite to 94 million, but close.

“Right now we’re at 93.5 million acres, which is up about 3 million from last year,” Suderman said during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during the Top Producer Summit. “But I have an alternate scenario I’m using right now, which is 95.5 million acres, which would be 5 million acres, essentially, higher than last year. We’re going to do another survey and collect more data right around March 1 when USDA does, because we’re just hearing enough of the feedback from the seed industry about how big their corn seed sales are versus their soybean seed sales. And so if there’s a bias to it, it’s to the upside right now.”

All Ag Outlook Forum sessions will be streamed on a virtual platform this week.

When Will Ag Markets Become Numb to Headlines and Trade Their Own Fundamentals?

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 15:43:12 GMT

Grain and livestock futures see early pressure after a mixed start.

Darin Newsom with Barchart says ag markets continue to ride the roller coaster of headlines about tariffs and policy changes being imposed by the Trump administration.

This is driving fund and algorithm trading.

When will the market get numb to the headlines and get back to trading its own fundamentals?

Newsom says, “We saw this in the first Trump administration where every time President Trump tweets a comment about trade or tariffs.”

He says it may take some time for the market to readjust.

For for now increased volatility will continue in the market place and it’s driving money flow in the commodity and financial markets.

Exports this morning were strong for corn at 58.2 million bu., solid for wheat at 16.1 million and but slow for soybeans at 14.2 million bu.

Newsom says soybean export business from China has died with the Lunar New Year holiday and as they switch over to sourcing soybeans from Brazil which is harvesting their new crop right now.

South American weather has been flip flopping with rain Wednesday weighing on the corn and especially the soybean and meal markets.

For now, Newsom says the technicals in the market don’t really matter.

However, March corn has been unable to close above $5 and soybeans are trading back below their 200 day moving average, while all three classes of wheat are still above their 100 day moving average.

The wheat market, according to Newsom, has been seeing fund short covering but he’s not sure if its changing trend yet or if the trade is watching the increasing global production concerns especially in Russia.

Currently wheat prices have been moving higher for both Russian and European wheat.

Regarding tariffs, Newsom says they are regarded by the trade as inflationary and may continue to drive a higher dollar, especially in relation to other world currencies, and make it difficult for the Fed and the market to ease interest rates.

Cattle Correct but Record Prices are Still Ahead: Grains Rally on Tariff Pause, China Hopes

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 22:05:15 GMT

Cattle end lower again Tuesday while grains and hogs rally.

Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures continue to consolidate off recent record highs in routine profit taking mode as the markets got overbought.

The feeder cattle futures have seen the biggest correction in response to the border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle.

Kooima says the market may have also been disappointed with the 5 area weighted average price which came in at $209.57 down $1.22 from last week.

However, he thinks this is a healthy correction in a longer bull market.

The funds are long in the cattle market and have continued to defend that position.

Consumer demand has stayed strong at higher prices.

Plus, the cattle inventory report confirmed the market isn’t even into the tightest numbers yet and those may hit the second half of 2025.

That means cattle prices could make new record highs during 2025.

The grain markets extended gains for a second day working in the 30 day delay in tariffs on both Mexico and Canada.

Plus, there is lingering hope the Trump Administration will be able to avert trade war with China and possibly revisit the China Phase One deal or strike a Phase Two agreement.

South American weather has continued to be supportive with lingering weather concerns in Argentina; a well-renowned meal exporter.

World Weather Inc. notes crop moisture and heat stress is likely through early next week.

The funds are already long in the corn market and need to close the March above $5 to keep the momentum going.

While soybeans managed to close above the 200 day moving average.

China Strikes Back With Tariffs on U.S., North American Trade War On Pause

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 19:45:11 GMT

As of Monday evening, Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, China tariffs continued to be discussed with China countering with tariffs on the U.S.

President Donald Trump agreed to pause tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods after negotiations with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The duties, originally set to take effect today, Feb. 4, will be postponed for at least 30 days while further discussions take place.

The notices on public review at the Federal Register on tariffs against Canada and Mexico are still shown as being on public inspection with a scheduled publication date on both being Feb. 5. It appears, at least for now, that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s previous comments about Trump’s tariffs have proven correct. He described Trump’s strategy as “escalate to de-escalate,” implying levies are a negotiation tool.

Trump’s trade wants from Canada & Mexico include accelerated USMCA renegotiation.

Tariff suspension with Mexico.

“Tariffs will remain like Schrodinger’s cat, dead and alive at the same time. We believe the endgame is a USMCA renegotiation, to get a USMCA 2.0,” said Carlos Capistran, chief Canada and Mexico economist at Bank of America. “That is when the threat of tariffs really end.

Trump announced via social media that Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 Mexican soldiers to the U.S.-Mexico border to combat fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration. In exchange, the U.S. will hold off on imposing 25% tariffs on Mexican goods during a one-month negotiation period led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and himself. The U.S., in return, will strengthen efforts to stop the flow of weapons, including high-powered rifles, into Mexico, according to Sheinbaum. “For the first time, the government of the United States says we will work together to avoid high-caliber weapons from entering Mexico,” she said, referring to how cartels acquire many of their weapons illegally from the United States. Confirming the deal, Trump said the arrangement is mutually beneficial. Sheinbaum also announced Mexico would establish three joint working groups with the U.S. government. “We already have a working group with the U.S. State Department, where the undersecretary is actively engaged in defending our Mexican brothers and all immigration-related matters,”

Sheinbaum said. “Now, two new groups will be formed — one dedicated to security and another to trade,” she added, emphasizing the importance of the tariff pause. “We now have a month to work and convince everyone that this is the best path forward.”

U.S./Canada tariff freeze.

“The deal Trudeau agreed to yesterday was “virtually the same” as the one Canada’s prime minister had offered weeks ago, wrote Campbell Clark in the Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper. “Mr. Trump just loves making those threats and making everyone dance.” And he will “keep on doing it”. “What,” Clark asked, “will Canada do next time?”

Trump and Trudeau agreed to a 30-day tariff suspension while they explore a broader economic deal. Trudeau confirmed Canada’s commitment to bolstering border security with $1.3 billion in funding, the assignment of 10,000 border personnel, the creation of a “Fentanyl Czar” to combat drug-related crime. The border protection plan will use new technology, personnel, helicopters, and enhanced cooperation with American law enforcement agencies. The nation is also investing $200 million in intelligence operations, appointing a fentanyl czar, designating cartels as terrorist organizations, and establishing a partnership with the U.S. Joint Strike Force to fight fentanyl trafficking, organized crime, and money laundering, Trudeau said. Talks with Trudeau also included discussions about regulations that prevent American banks from doing business in the northern nation, according to Trump.

China tariffs under discussion, but China reacts with tariffs on U.S. products.

The 10% U.S. additional tariffs on Chinese goods went into effect today. However, Trump will speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the next few days, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. Some speculate discussions could revisit the Phase 1 trade deal from Trump’s first term, which included commitments from China to increase U.S. agricultural imports.

“China will be dealt with,” Trump said. “China hopefully is going to stop sending us fentanyl, and if they’re not, the tariffs are going to go substantially higher.”
On Feb 3, China’s U.N. envoy suggested a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at an upcoming United Nations Security Council meeting in two weeks, stressing the need for cooperation because “so much is at stake.” China announced strong retaliatory measures against the U.S., imposing punitive tariffs of 10-15% on American products starting Feb. 10. This follows President Trump’s decision to levy 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods, citing fentanyl controls. Beijing will apply:

15% tariffs on U.S. coal and natural gas
10% on petroleum, agricultural equipment, and high-emission vehicles

China’s Ministry of Finance condemned the U.S. move as a WTO violation that disrupts economic cooperation. Additionally, China introduced export controls on key minerals like tungsten and molybdenum and launched an anti-monopoly probe into Google. It also placed PVH (owner of Calvin Klein) and Illumina on its unreliable entity list, accusing them of discriminatory practices. Of note, despite the U.S. imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and China retaliating with import taxes of up to 15%, the Chinese yuan remained stable, even returning to its previous Friday level. This unexpected resilience suggests that investors still hold hope for a potential last-minute negotiation or compromise, similar to the trade deferrals seen in Canada and Mexico. Trade with China has been falling since the first Trump administration, so the new U.S. tariffs may have only a limited effect on the economy.

Next on Trump’s trade radar

President Donald Trump has renewed his criticism of the European Union, accusing it of exploiting the U.S. on trade, particularly in autos and agriculture. “The European Union has abused the United States for years, and they can’t do that,” he said. In response, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, signaled their intent to push back. Given that the U.S. and the EU are each other’s largest sources of foreign direct investment, a trade battle between them could have serious economic consequences.

Grains Recover But Was it the Mexican Tariff Delay or China Hopes?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 20:47:11 GMT

Grains end higher Monday with livestock mostly lower.

John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says grains opened lower on Monday with the Trump administration announcing tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China.

However, grains recovered shortly after the opening when news broke that the U.S. would delay tariffs on Mexico for 30 days to allow negotiations.

Heinberg says there was also speculation that the meeting between the U.S. and China was laying the ground work for resumption of a larger trade deal.

That spurred some technical buying after a couple of lower days in the corn market and a lower weekly close last week.

However, corn is still unable to close above $5 on the March contract even with funds long over 350,000 contracts.

Soybeans were better supported with canola oil out of Canada seeing a 25% tariff and that pushed the bean oil market higher on Friday and again Monday.

Heinberg says soybeans were also trading the wet weather in Brazil that is causing harvest delays and trimming yields in the central part of the country.

Yet, March beans have been unable to close above the 200 day moving average.

Wheat followed the rest of the complex but may have its own story brewing.

Cattle futures ended lower on technical selling according to Heinberg as the market looks tired.

It was also trading tariff concerns and the announced reopening of the border the Mexican feeder cattle imports, plus disappointment that the 5 area weighted average steer came in at $209.57, down $1.22 from last week.

Lean hog futures saw the most negative reaction to the tariff news.

Canada and Mexico account for 40% of U.S. pork exports and while the delay in Mexican tariffs was helpful, Canada has put pork on its secondary retaliation list and will face a 25% tariff.

Funds are long in both cattle and hogs and so Heinberg says they are susceptible to further technical selling.

Tariffs Sink Most Ag Markets Early and Then Rebound on One Month Mexican Pause

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 15:33:57 GMT

Most ag markets are seeing pressure early Monday morning, except soybeans and bean oil.

Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says the initial response was to tariffs imposed over the weekend on imports from China, Canada and Mexico and retaliatory measures announced by those countries.

President Trump is also talking about possible tariffs on the European Union.

However grains rebounded shortly after the day session opening on breaking news that Trump was delaying Mexican tariffs for one month for negotiations, hours before they were to take effect.

Lean hog futures took the tariff news the worst initially as Mexico is the top pork export customer for the U.S. and that market is dependent on strong export demand.

However, it failed to rebound even with the Mexican tariff delays as Canada is also a large export customer and will be putting 25% tariffs on pork and poultry in the second retaliation phase.

The cattle market may be less impacted by possible tariffs as Kooima says the U.S. imports more beef than it exports.

Cattle markets tried to rebound with the friendly numbers in the USDA Cattle Inventory Report, with all cattle/calves at 99.4% and the smallest inventory since 1961.

Kooima says the border is also reopening to Mexican feeder cattle imports but the initial movement will be very slow due to the tightened inspection process.

He says that might eventually be offset if the 25% tariffs on Mexico do go into effect.

Cash cattle traded at record levels again last week and the South led the charge with mostly $208 live sale prices, up $6 to $7 from the previous week.

The North traded at mostly $330 dressed, steady to $2 higher.