Cattle Market Reports and Analysis

Optimism Reigns at Joplin Stockyards as Cattle Prices Hit Historic Highs

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 14:10:23 GMT

Monday is sale day in Carthage, Mo. At the Joplin Stockyards, the air is filled with the rhythmic chant of auctioneers and the shuffling hooves. Among the crowd of buyers, part-owner Jackie Moore watches the ring with a smile, watching a market that is finally paying off for producers.

“Cattle are $100 higher than they were a year ago,” Moore says.

The higher prices and the resulting grins haven’t always been the case for the buyers and sellers sitting ringside at the Moore family’s business. Moore is an industry veteran, having started his career at the stockyards back in 1977, long before the operation moved to its current Carthage location.

“It’s been a long time since 1977,” he reflects.

Moore is grateful many cattlemen today are no longer focused on the years of struggle. Instead, they are seeing cash for their efforts.

“They’re in the driver’s seat now. They’re getting paid for what they’re doing. You know we see those people walk up to the window — you sold 20 head of calves, and they get a check for $50,000. He’s got three little kids at home, a trailer house and 80 acres of land. He’s the happiest guy in the world, and nobody would be happier for him than I am,” Moore says.

Moore is quick to point out the cattle industry is cyclical. While the current environment is prosperous, the question remains: When could the momentum shift? He believes the answer is tied closely to heifer sales and the eventual rebuilding of the national herd. Moore said buyers are purchasing more heifers to breed than they have historically.

“I think we’ve got a year and a half left of this really, really good market. Maybe then, as we see those heifers calve that they’re buying today, that we get enough cattle to satisfy the market,” Moore explains.

External factors are also playing a role in the current market dynamics. The suspension of live cattle imports along the Mexico border has tightened an already record-low cattle inventory. The border has remained closed since last July . While Moore believes a reopening could have an initial impact on the market, he doubts it will significantly alter long-term prices.

“We taught the cartel how to slaughter those cattle, how to feed those cattle, how to make money with those cattle. So consequently, you know, I don’t think there’s gonna be as big a need for them to export those cattle as there once was,” he says.

Midwest Market Solutions president Brian Hoops said there could be a headline risk for algorithm trades when the border opens, but he thinks, realistically, it might not have a large impact because of what has already been priced into the market. He agrees with Moore that processing has changed since the closure.

Moore notes the cattle environment in both Mexico and the U.S. is evolving, even without the steady flow of imports.

“Where this all leads us probably remains to be seen of how long the border is actually closed,” he adds.

Hoops says: “They’ve [Mexico] invested millions and maybe billions of dollars in an infrastructure because the border being closed. It’s kind of a double edged sword where we get a benefit of the border, being closed and having left less cattle here on feed and seeing higher prices, but it’s also forced Mexican producers to invest in infrastructure.”

Moore adds: “What happens down the road? I don’t know. I don’t really know. I’m very optimistic, and I’m bullish at the cattle market. All I know to do is just keep playing the game and enjoy the ride.”

Consumer Demand

On the consumer side, demand for beef continues to grow and is reaching record levels. Nebraska Farm Bureau reports an index created by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) to gauge beef demand reached 138 last year, the highest on record and a 10-point jump from 2024.

Director of LMIC Tyler Cozzens says a similar jump has only happened two other times in the last 25 years. He says since 2019, the index increased 27%.

“Prices are extremely high. You’re right about that,” Hoops says. “There’s still optimism that prices are going to continue to move higher because we’re going into the spring grilling season.”

Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 17:56:32 GMT

While fundamentals continue to drive the cattle market, increasing prevalence of external factors can play havoc day-to-day.

Based on placements the past six months, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek believes the tightest supply of this entire cattle cycle will occur in the next 60 to 90 days. It wouldn’t be the first-time the market makes a high in February or March.

“Now beyond that, I don’t see there’s a tremendous chance to have an oversupply of cattle going into the summer,” he adds. “However, you’ve got things like the Mexican border that are coming into play. So, I’m trying to react to what I see, but the fundamentals aren’t going to change.”

Here are seven other takeaways from Kooima’s recent conversation with Chip Flory on AgriTalk:

1. Fundamentals Still Drive The Cattle Market.

“I wish we could just talk about cattle fundamentals,” he says. “I’m still an old-school fundamentalist who believes a lot in trying to figure out where we’re at with supply and how we’re getting along with the boxes and beef demand.”

Rumors and misguided comments, such as the New World screwworm (NWS) scare a week ago and geopolitical factors this past Tuesday, can cause the markets to react.

“Now, is it only supply? Of course not,” Kooima says, regarding what drives the markets. “But if I had to start there, barring more of this outside, new stuff we’ve been inundated with, I think the market still generally driving the deal. We don’t have enough cattle, and that’s why they’re cutting kill. That’s why they’re closing plants. There’s not enough to go around.”

2. Heifer Retention Exists But Isn’t a Major Market Factor.

Kooima says heifer retention has started but is insufficient to significantly change the supply trajectory.

“It’s not like 2015 when we flipped a switch and the whole world decided to save them at one time, but it’s there,” he says.

He’s predicting a 1% to 2% increase, saying the retention is regional — referring to the Dakotas, Montana and Colorado.

“What’s driving it is economics,” Kooima says. Some ranchers can’t afford to not sell their heifer calves, while other factors include the age of the rancher, no desire to deal with first-calf heifers and drought.

When asked if there is enough heifer retention to move the needle to bring some relief on the supply side, Kooima responds: “The short answer would be no. We’re never going to have a cow herd like we had 10 years ago. We’re going to have to figure out how to do with less.”

He says the strategy to increase supply is feeding to heavier weights and the growth in beef-on-dairy.

“The gorilla in the room, to me, is beef-on-dairy,” he says. “From a couple of standpoints, just from a raw supply standpoint, the dairy cow herd’s the biggest since 1993. It’s grown and grown, and why wouldn’t you if you can get $1,200 to $1,500 for a day-old calf?”

3. Mexico Has Built Feeding and Processing Infrastructure in Response to Border Closure.

Kooima says with the U.S.-Mexico border closed due to NWS, Mexico has figured out how to finish and process cattle.

“I think there’s a lot of people there who don’t want anything to happen,” he says, regarding reopening the border. “They’re benefiting from this great big bull market and now they’re selling the beef to us. So, it may never exactly be the way it was again. They waited too long on this matter, in my opinion. It’s not a market factor.”

4. Beef-on-Dairy and Vertical Integration Are Rising Concerns.

Kooima shares his concern about the long-term implications of vertical integration and the consequences of the growing beef-on-dairy supply.

“For the first time, you got an integrator that has the ability to control that thing from its birthday and schedule it out 341 days later to slaughter,” he explains. “A dream that the packers chase. I watched them wreck the hog market. I see what happened in poultry. This scares me to death. The combination of all of that is we’re losing price discovery. They’re going to try to slow it down as much as they can until they can control the supply.”

5. Packers Are Adapting to the Market.

Kooima says the closing of Tyson’s Lexington plant and shift reduction at its Amarillo plant are examples of the broad industry trend to reduce harvest rates and shutter facilities when supplies tighten. He explains the closing will result in even less negotiated trade. The Lexington plant primarily did formula (non-negotiated) pricing, and he predicts those formula customers will now go to Tyson’s Dakota City plant.

“Dakota City, a plant that’s closest to me, 64 miles away, is likely going to become a formula plant. It’s going to further deteriorate price discovery up in this neck of the woods,” he stresses.

He adds packers are also using tight supplies as an opportunity to perform necessary cooler clean-out cycles and reduce the number of harvest days per week.

“They’re systematically reducing kill to try to gain some leverage back,” Kooima says.

When it comes to regional packers, he hopes they can survive: “I think they’re critical to price discovery.”

6. Demand for Beef Remains Strong.

Kooima is bullish about beef demand, especially amid supply tightness.

“When people say demand is pretty good, I go ‘No, it is phenomenal,’” he says. “The demand for grind is crazy. We have to make sure we can continue to fuel that rocket.”

7. Risk Management is Essential Amid Market Uncertainty.

On protecting against risk, Kooima advises: “My mantra is and has been for a year and a half to buy some puts. You’re going to have to buy puts to keep you in business. Let’s not let 2015 happen to us again.”

He goes on to add: “Do I think that there’s a high-risk point here in the short term? No, obviously, I just said I think we’ve got the tightest numbers ever, but there’s always something that can go wrong, so be careful.”

Listen to Kooima’s and Flory’s AgriTalk conversation here:

Your Next Read — Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What’s Next in 2026?

Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What's Next in 2026?

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 17:33:42 GMT

The long-feared rightsizing of shackle spaces to more closely match the number of cattle has begun.

“The market’s reaction to the November announcement was a good reminder that market volatility still exists even when the supply and demand fundamentals continue to be positive forces into the start of 2026,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, in his Q1 2026 Outlook .

In late November, Tyson Foods announced its plan to end operations at its Lexington, Neb., beef facility and convert its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility to a single, full-capacity shift.

“Terrain estimates the changes will eventually reduce U.S. slaughter capacity by about 6.6%,” Weaber explains. “However, slaughter plant capacity utilization is still nearly 6% behind historical norms, as the number of cattle is still well short of filling available slaughter capacity.”

Weaber predicts this positive shift in operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and better compete for the available cattle.

“I expect utilization to decline by about 2% during 2026 when two new plants in Nebraska and Missouri complete their startups,” he adds.

A proposed plant in the Panhandle of Texas that would handle 6,000 head per day has the potential to lower utilization rates back to early-2025 levels if completed.

“Even without additional future slaughter capacity, utilization rates will remain low; fed cattle numbers are expected to decline during the next two to three years because of cow-calf producers’ beef cow herd expansion efforts,” Weaber summarizes.

The reduction in current fed slaughter capacity will help the remaining plants run more volume, improving efficiency by spreading fixed and semi-variable costs across more head and pounds of beef. This positive shift in operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and better compete for the available cattle.

“I expect that in the near and intermediate term, this effect will at least partially offset the shift in market leverage, which currently favors the packer,” Weaber says.

Markets and Beef Prices Remain Resilient

Beyond the near-term impacts to futures traders’ sentiment, the market impacts of the announced closures are fading.

“Calf, feeder cattle and fed cattle cash markets are already recovering and have posted significant rallies,” Weaber says. “Fed cattle supplies for the first half of 2026 are not going to change. The number of cattle placed into feed yards is the number placed and will be the number that gets slaughtered. The location the cattle get processed into beef may change, but overall beef production is mostly set.”

(USDA NASS, Terrain)

He adds: “ Consumer beef demand and spending remain strong and supportive of cattle prices. Presidential and executive branch rhetoric about lowering beef prices has had little to no impact on retail and wholesale beef prices. Tariff reductions on imported lean trimmings from South America are driving volumes, but prices for contracted loads delivering in the first quarter of 2026 are record high, up 20% from a year earlier.”

“I expect the choice cutout to average between $375 per cwt and $385 per cwt and fed cattle prices to average between $234 per cwt and $238 per cwt in Q1.”

— Dave Weaber

Q1 2026 Price Outlook

“I expect available fed cattle supplies during the first quarter of 2026 to be 6% to 7% smaller than the year prior,” Weaber says. “Even with a 2% shift in leverage (fed cattle price to comprehensive cutout) to the packers’ favor, I expect the Choice cutout to average between $375 per cwt and $385 per cwt and fed cattle prices to average between $234 per cwt and $238 per cwt in Q1.”

By early December, light feeder cattle and calf auction prices have recovered much of the losses incurred since late October and appear poised to start 2026 at record levels.

“Changes to the U.S.-Mexico border status remain the greatest known risk for cattle prices,” Weaber stresses.

Further rallies in deferred live cattle futures will drive the balance of the recovery in prices for heavy feeder cattle that make up the CME feeder cattle price index. He explains demand for light cattle to be turned out on wheat pasture and California coastal range has been a key driver for the rally in light cattle.

Biggest Risk Is South of the Border

Changes to the U.S.-Mexico border status remain the greatest known risk for cattle prices.

“The Mexican government has implemented broad cattle movement and import restrictions within the country as well as greater fly control measures in partnership with the USDA,” Weaber says. “Meanwhile, U.S. and Mexican officials have begun inspections of only one border crossing into New Mexico. Additional cases of New World screwworm have been found in Mexico, which I expect to further delay the reopening.”

Active risk management to preserve operation equity should remain a priority.

“If the border were to reopen, cash feeder cattle and calf prices and feeder cattle and live cattle futures would be the first to move down,” Weaber explains. “The magnitude of the impact will depend on the rate-limiting and cost impacts of the protocols that are implemented and the number of backlogged cattle south of the border.”

One Lesson From Plant Closures

“If we’ve learned anything from the market reactions to the plant announcements, it’s that price volatility should be a focus for producers in all segments of the cattle industry,” Weaber says. “Active risk management to preserve operation equity should remain a priority.”

Your Next Reads:
Navigate Market Volatility with Risk Management Strategies

Beef’s Future: Consumer Demand, Risk Management and the Path to Continued Profitability

What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 20:00:36 GMT

While the core fundamentals of the beef industry remain unchanged, the overall environment has become much more volatile and uncertain in recent weeks.

Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe, in a recent interview on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria , predicts ground beef prices will reach $10 per pound by the third quarter of 2026.

In response to that prediction, ag economist Glynn Tonsor from Kansas State University reports, according to September Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the national average price for ground beef was $6.32 per pound. He explains while niche markets such as Omaha Steaks could see some products priced at $10, the national average is unlikely to reach that level within the next three years.

Tonsor emphasizes Omaha Steaks serves a distinct customer base, and their prices should not be generalized to represent all U.S. ground beef prices.

Lance Zimmerman, senior animal protein analyst with Rabo AgriFinance, adds: “It’s possible, but that’d be pretty wild. Is it probable? I would say no, based on history.”

He explains his stance also referring to the BLS historic data, although prices spiked radically during the pandemic posting the highest year-over-year increases on record, that event only resulted in a 34% jump, far short of the 54% increase needed to see $10 ground beef by the third quarter of 2026.

What Does All This Beef Chatter Cause?

The beef industry has found itself in national headlines since Sept. 15. The industry has been experiencing chaos in the markets since President Donald Trump made statements regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to investigate meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

“The base fundamentals of the industry have not changed in the last four weeks,” Tonsor says. “The volatility, the noise in the business environment, has definitely elevated.”

Read more about the industry chaos today:
Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Zimmerman explains while political sound bites and promises to lower food prices draw media attention, they do not directly affect the day-to-day decisions by producers who remain focused on long-term business fundamentals.

“At the end of the day, the average cow-calf producer, stocker operator and feedlot operator, have a business to run, and all of this noise doesn’t change much surrounding their day-to-day business,” Zimmerman summarizes. “The challenge is the president is making this a very regular soundbite, as is the rest of his administration. And, cyclically, there is no quick fix.”

Zimmerman shares his frustration regarding the broader impact of political statements, especially presidential promises to bring down food prices. He explains that, historically, the only way to significantly reduce food costs is to enter a recession. The catch, he argues, is that neither administration nor producers desire such an outcome. This underscores the conflict between policy rhetoric and on-the-ground market drivers.

Tonsor adds media attention and dramatic statements, such as $10 ground beef, often do not accurately represent broad market reality.

“I’m trying to use this as an excuse to educate on why prices are higher; [it’s] not just because cow numbers are down,” Tonsor explains. “When we just jump to the number of cows, we don’t give credit to the demand story that the public wants beef.”

Read more about beef demand:
Consumers Confirm Protein is In: Meat Continues to Have Its Moment on the Plate
How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

One question on the mind of producers and industry stakeholders is if the political and media attention will heighten consumer awareness to beef prices and cause a change in buying behavior.

Tonsor says, so far, there is little impact from these headlines on consumer demand.

“It’s too early to tell if there’s been a consumer demand impact from all the chatter,” he says. “My best guess is little-to-no direct impact.”

Both analysts agree beef prices are fueled by demand. Tonsor notes consumers are willing to pay the retail price of beef today because of their continued demand for taste and protein. He points out if public demand for beef stays strong, prices will remain robust.

“The public still thinks taste is the most important thing when they make a decision,” he summarizes.

Slowing Down Rebuilding

“This uncertainty has wrecked the market potential in Chicago in the short run,” Zimmerman explains. “But the timing of it also couldn’t be worse for the cow-calf producer who’s making those fall retention decisions right now.”

Both analysts agree the heightened uncertainty is making producers more hesitant to invest or expand their herds, which will lead to slower industry investment and herd growth.

Read more about herd rebuilding:
Rebuilding the U.S. Cow Herd: A Calculated Climb

“I think we’re going to slow investment compared to even a month ago, just because those that are anxious or don’t like uncertainty are a little more cautious today than they were a month ago,” Tonsor explains. “Those that are extra uncomfortable with elevated uncertainty, like not knowing what the trade environment might be, it’s going to give them pause. So, they will be less likely to hold back a heifer and expand. They’ll be less likely to modernize the feedyard. They’ll be less likely to do whatever that capital investment was.”

Will Tarriff Reduction Impact Prices?

Late last week, Trump signed an executive order that modifies the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2. The executive order now exempts several agricultural products from tariffs, including beef.

Zimmerman explains Brazil’s beef processors and beef exporters would have gained the most if the country’s additional tariffs were removed by the U.S. The previous rate was an additional 50% tariff on top of the 26.4% tariff that exists on all imports from countries without a free-trade agreement on beef after the first 65,005 MT each calendar year. However, the Brazil tariffs are structured under two separate practices. Ten percent are reciprocal tariffs, and the additional 40% that came in August are through another process.

“The latest removal of reciprocal tariffs on beef effectively changes Brazil’s country-specific import tax from 50% to 40%,” he explains. “This is not going to significantly change the competitive landscape for global exporters shipping into the U.S. market. It is still incredibly tough for Brazil to compete with Australia, New Zealand and other major lean beef importers in the U.S. market.”

Tonsor adds reducing tariffs could marginally lower beef prices for consumers, but the effect would not be dramatic. He points out the U.S. produces the majority of its own beef (more than 80%), so changes in import tariffs have a limited impact on domestic prices.

He says recent record import months only moved the import share from around 15% to slightly more than 20%. Tonsor expects the net effect of the tariff reduction on beef prices to be fairly small, potentially less than a 5%-to-10% change, and that overall, strong domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of prices.

Challenge to Producers

Tonsor says his advice to producers is to steady the ship.

He encourages a steady approach, suggesting those comfortable with uncertainty should move forward as planned, while others might pause on major decisions. Ultimately, he expects less herd expansion and more caution among producers, even as demand fundamentals continue to provide underlying strength for the industry.

Tonsor says while general industry investment and expansion might slow, producers who move forward despite the uncertainty could be rewarded, especially if fewer others do the same. His overall message is for producers to carefully weigh their risk tolerance and business needs before making significant changes and not to let the current noise distract from their long-term goals.

Despite recent market corrections, Zimmerman says strong demand and cyclical tightness mean profitability remains high for most producers. He shares these six strategies for producers to consider looking forward:

Consider Strategic Heifer Retention. He advises producers to begin or continue retaining heifers, even if only enough to replace natural attrition in the cow herd, as a step toward gradual herd rebuilding in tight supply conditions.
Use Price Protection Tools. He emphasizes the importance of locking in profit floors using risk management tools such as Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance , futures or options contracts, encouraging producers not to wait for the highest prices but to protect profitability when opportunities arise.
Maintain Long-Term Perspective. Despite recent market corrections, he urges producers to keep a long-term view; demand is strong, and rebuilding will be slow, so planning for sustained higher prices is key.
Stay Vigilant and Informed. He recommends producers remain watchful for profit opportunities in the market, be proactive in their strategic decisions and stay informed about both market trends and policy changes.
Be Cautious, Not Reactionary. He suggests not overreacting to political headlines or media narratives, emphasizing that day-to-day operational fundamentals should guide decisions rather than short-term noise.
Prepare for Continued Volatility. He encourages resilience and adaptation strategies as the industry faces persistent uncertainty from trade policy and disease threats such as New World screwworm .

Your Next Read: Did the Administration’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?

Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 20:04:16 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

Beef Flourishes, Grains Struggle: The Shifting Landscape of American Agriculture

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 19:27:59 GMT

Agriculture is experiencing a dramatic transformation, characterized by what Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, calls “two sides of the fence.” On one side, grain farmers are struggling, but on the other, protein producers are thriving. While grain farmers are facing rising costs and declining revenues, the beef industry is enjoying unprecedented demand and pricing power. Beef is projected to generate $113 billion in revenue this year versus $57 billion for the entire corn crop.

“That’s how important the beef industry has become to American agriculture,” he stresses. “We in the beef industry are domestically domiciled. We can’t get enough beef today for our own domestic consumers. Beef demand is almost insatiable.”

That demand level is driving significant economic opportunity.

Basse says beef prices have reached unprecedented levels without experiencing demand reduction, driven by rising disposable incomes and changing dietary preferences. The market has not yet found a price point that will significantly impact consumption.

Here are four additional points Basse shared during the Certified Angus Beef Feeding Quality Forum:

1. Global Economic Dynamics. The global economic landscape is dramatically shifting, which in turn is reshaping agricultural trade and challenging traditional market dynamics. The world is moving from a unipolar to a multipolar economic landscape, with a significant power shift between the U.S. and China. The rise of BRICS countries is reshaping global trade, with China’s Belt and Road Initiative creating new trade zones.

2. Agricultural Trade Environment. U.S. agricultural trade is facing significant challenges, with net imports of agricultural products reaching $54 billion. The country is becoming a high-cost producer globally, and traditional export markets are shrinking. China’s reduced agricultural imports and changing global trade dynamics are creating substantial uncertainties for U.S. farmers.

“China is irreplaceable in terms of demand,” Basse says.

“We believe China’s boom is over,” he says. “They have real problems economically in China. They’ve overspent. They’ve got real trouble. As you look at their food consumption, it’s plateauing. I don’t think China is going to be a driver of global food demand anymore.”

3. Technological and Demographic Transformation. The agricultural sector is on the cusp of a major transformation driven by technology and demographic shifts. With the average farmer age of 67.3 years, Basse says the industry is preparing for a significant ownership and operational transition.

Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, autonomous farming and robotics are expected to play a crucial role in addressing labor shortages and managing agricultural production.

“I believe we’re going to have companies like Deere send in tractors — robotically and autonomously — to farm our land,” Basse says.

4. Consumer Demand Trends. Basse says the retail price of beef has shocked the industry.

“If you would have told me last year the retail price of beef would be in the vicinity of $9.50 a pound, and we had no demand rationing, no shifting to chicken or pork, I would have told you you’re crazy,’” he explains. “This new generation today likes protein. They like their vegetables. They do not like their starches. The snack food industry is in a bad spot. And Make America Healthy Again is going to help cattlemen.”

The demand for beef continues to increase while disposable personal income continues to increase.

“People are making money and they’re consuming it versus saving it,” Basse explains. “I think that’s important to understand. This thing called ‘chicken fatigue’ is real — we can’t eat chicken all the time. When is the beef market going to peak? I can’t model it. I can’t tell you.”

His outlook for protein producers is optimistic: “If you’re a protein producer, the next two or three years look really good.”

However, he cautions the market is complex and unpredictable.

“This is a new world,” Basse concludes. “Someday, will there be a point where we do hit a level that causes some reduction in demand? I suspect it, but I can’t tell you where it is.”

Why Aren't High Beef Prices Causing Sticker Shock With Consumers?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 17:28:06 GMT

Gound beef prices across the U.S. continue to reach new highs. Retail prices for ground beef hit its highest level in history in June climbing above $6 per pound, while steaks were up 8% at $11.49 per pound.

(Bureau of Labor Statistics )

“The record high retail beef price reported by the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a lot of calls about why prices are record high and whether there is any relief in sight,” says David Anderson, Texas A&M Extension economist for livestock and food product marketing. “While we often write about the great cattle prices for producers who are selling, there is a flip side, and that is consumers who are buying beef.”

Anderson explains reduced slaughter and beef production, especially in the second quarter of the year, cut supplies just as grilling season heated up for seasonal beef demand. The combination led to a spike in wholesale prices and retail beef prices.

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, says: “What we have seen so far is consumers have been incredibly loyal to protein collectively, but they have been especially loyal to beef, and beef is actually continuing to gain market there, even at the current prices at the expense of the other protein.”

Wages Are Keeping Pace With Beef Prices

Close says when he correlates the monthly all fresh beef price to hourly wages he found they are in lock step.

“Yes, beef prices have escalated, but beef prices have not risen any faster than the improvement in overall hourly wage,” he explains. “So from the consumer’s perspective, their share of their paycheck committed to beef is essentially the same as it’s been on a comparative basis for years.”

(Don Close, Terrain )

Other contributing factors to beef demand include consumers’ craze for protein and the impact of GLP-1 diets on protein consumption.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says: “I think beef demand has just proven time and time again — hey, consumers want it. It’s a great healthy protein, and I think it’s got a lot of good traction here over the last year of being a good quality source of food.”

High Quality Attracts Consumer Spending

Plus, with 82% to 84% of the beef produced grading Choice or better, the high quality of beef is pushing demand.

“I don’t see any weakness really in the consumers or their spending habits,” says Mike Minor, professional ag marketing. “We actually are eating more Prime meat today than Choice for the first time ever. So, people like their expensive meat still.”

How Long Will High Cattle and Beef Prices Last?

Last week USDA reported average fed cash cattle prices hit the second-highest level in history at $237.78, up 57¢ from the average the prior week.

The high cattle and beef prices continue to be driven by tight cattle numbers, the Mexican boarder closing due to New World screwworm and looming import challenges.

Yet, Close says the role of strong demand can’t be ignored and is likely to continue.

“I think it’s certainly through 2026 and really more realistic somewhere deep into 2027,” he adds.

Anderson explains normal seasonal production and demand would suggest prices falling from recent highs. Evidence from the wholesale beef market over the last couple of weeks indicates lower prices.

“Seasonal price patterns would suggest that there is a chance for a little bit of relief from record high beef prices,” Anderson says. “But, only if we compare to the peak price this summer. Wholesale beef prices are already declining.”

He adds there is a time lag from lower wholesale prices showing up at retail, but lower wholesale prices combined with normal seasonality of various cut prices should lead to the expectation of falling prices in the coming months.

“But, it’s not likely that prices will decline below year-ago levels,” Anderson emphasizes.

Inventory Reports Release on July 25

Close says more will be known about supply levels after the USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory reports on Friday.

“While market analysts expect lower placements, marketings and cattle in feedyards than a year ago, the really interesting number will be the number of heifers on feed on July 1,” Anderson summarizes. “The heifers on feed will provide some insight into heifer retention. Also, look for placements in Texas due to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle. The lack of spayed heifers coming from Mexico is important in evaluating the number of heifers on feed.”

Your Next Read: What Americans Won’t Give Up in 2025: Spending Priorities Revealed

Understand the $6.50 Surge in Feeder Cattle Futures

Mon, 12 May 2025 20:34:15 GMT

The cattle market hit records numbers on May 12, with August feeder cattle futures reaching highs of $306.85.

Not to be attributed to just one thing, this $6.50 surge is likely due to tandem effects of both the lowering of tariffs with China, as well as the USDA’s decision to close the southern border again because of concerns with New World Screwworm.

“Markets are way up today if you looked at the futures, but it’s hard to sort out how much of that is due to Mexico,” says Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist. “Probably the bigger part of it is the stock market and all the tariff related stuff that’s going on.”

What’s ‘Normal’ For Animal Imports v. Today?
So far in 2025, a total of 197,844 head of feeder cattle have been imported since the border reopened, down 60% year over year for the year-to-date. In 2024, a total of 1.25 million head of feeder cattle were imported, with none in the last five weeks of the year, says Peel in his weekly market report.

“On an annual basis, the number of feeder cattle we bring in from Mexico is equivalent to 3.5% of our calf crop ,” Peel adds. “It’s not insignificant, but it’s not a huge, huge factor either.”

Peel says reducing the supply of cattle coming in has fairly big effects on cattle businesses who rely specifically on that source of cattle, much of which would be in the Southern Plains region.

“Folks who historically utilize those cattle, obviously are directly impacted, and they have to try to find other sources of cattle, but, again, the overall numbers are not big enough to be a major market mover,” he says.

Additionally, Peel says the majority of cattle coming into the U.S. from Mexico were spayed heifers due to drought liquidation.

John Hepton, Wilder Cattle Feeders in Idaho, says he has fed Mexican cattle in the past, but doesn’t have any in yards currently, so it’s not a supply issue for him, but he pays close attention to the futures.

“Feedlots aren’t getting those cattle from Mexico and they’re pulling feeder cattle farther away,” Hepton says. “It’s definitely having an impact on the price of feeders and the availability of feeders, which is going to have an impact on the amount of cattle that are placed on feed that end up at the processors. We’re already short as is.”

As a feedlot owner, risk management has always been a part of his business model, which helps as the markets climb.

“It looked like we were kind of hitting close to a high when the feeder futures got to three bucks,” he says. “We added some hedges and risk protection at that level then you wake up Monday morning and the market’s up four bucks, and you’re making margin calls because of an outside influence in the market. It’s just the way it is.”

Markets Shape Herd Size Dynamics
Hepton says he has heard from people in the industry that herd expansion is starting in places, but he’s not sure to what degree, which would put less heifers on feed.

“If you’re a cow-calf producer, it helps you price wise,” Hepton says. “We were already the highest prices in the history of the world and now it’s higher again. Producers will continue to get more for their calf crop coming up. Whether that changes their decision to save more heifers or not has always been more about forage availability than anything.”

He says time will tell if producers keep saving heifers as they will be giving up a big check.

“I think that’s part of the reason why there hasn’t been a lot of expansion yet; they are worth so much that it’s hard to hard to not sell them.”

Hepton points out other factors work together to determine what the industry does. He says there will be signals to continue to produce cattle.

“If we don’t get in a drought, the cow herd will eventually increase,” he says. “Also, if you get to a price point where demand backs off, first it’ll back off on the meat sales, then the fed cattle price, then feeder cattle price, and finally at the cow-calf level. In time, capitalism always works. If people can’t afford beef, that’s going to be the real driver of a change in this market, I think.”

Border Closure Aims to Limit Exposure To Pest
While the change in markets has gained industry attention, Peels says the USDA decision to close the southern border is very much a veterinary issue to make sure the New World Screwworm stays out of the U.S.

“The pest moves with cattle, potentially, if they have it,” he says. “And of course, flies can just move, and they’re going to move in conjunction with cattle. Stopping the movement of the cattle is the first step in containing it. Then you use the sterile fly program to eradicate it and start hopefully pushing it back farther south.”

Your next read: U.S. Suspends Mexican Cattle, Horse and Bison Imports Over Screwworm Pest