China

Row Crops Gain, Cattle Soar on Record Cash

Thu, 14 May 2026 01:44:35 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended slightly higher, with wheat lower. Cattle and hogs both soared.

Row Crops See Slight Gains
Corn and soybeans were slightly higher on Wednesday with fund buying tied to inflation concerns and some optimism heading into the China summit.

Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says corn got help from limit up moves in the wheat market after the WASDE but Wednesday traded its own fundamentals.

“USDA data paints a picture where we don’t have a lot of downside, you’re looking at a trend yield, you’re looking at pretty solid acres here. And with that, we still see stocks to usage go backwards about 1% year over year. And there’s just not a lot of breathing room for any errors. I think the fertilizer aspect of it also paints, you know, the idea that you could actually lose a few more acres at the end of June. So with all that going on, it’s just it’s hard. to get tied to a short position, especially when you continue to make new highs. And it was nice to see us press through the $5 mark, but not fade it off real hard. We’re going to probably find some support here now at that level until we can learn about what some of these geopolitics do into the weekend.

December Corn Makes New Highs
December or new crop corn made new highs on Wednesday and posted new high closes. So how much higher could the market rally?

Hudson says, “Well, the $5.08 to $5.13 zone is kind of one I’ve been watching and waiting for here for quite a while. I would say this is a successful more or less test of that. If you can exceed those levels, though, Michelle, and continue to keep a bid in that wheat market and optimism on soybeans and energy markets in general, then I think it’s possible you could track up to that $5.45 to $5.65 zone.”

However, he thinks it will be more of a grind to get to that level with plenty of old crop corn available.

“Demand is big, but we’ve got enough supply to service it. I think where you really get concerned is if you have to pull back. that supply number, whether it’s in acres or yield here down the road,” he says.

E15 Optimism
Some lightly buying could have been tied to hopes the House would pass a year-round E15 bill in the House on Tuesday afternoon.

“There’s certainly plenty of opinions to be had on that but it’s a lot of hype. I don’t know if it matters a ton for demand. I’ve probably been in that camp for quite a while. The adoption process, the pace of that is all filtered back into that. And my issue with it is, you know, whenever we get legislated demand, I’m always wondering about what’s coming along with that in the fine print. You know, thus far, over the last two or
three years, I think the biggest growth and benefit I think that we’ve seen without that is the fact that other countries around the world have adopted it at a much faster pace and that really helps facilitate our exports, especially in an energy pinch like this.

When Does Weather Become a Factor in the Corn Market?
So when will the corn market stop chasing headlines and start trading weather? Hudson says seasonally the market is getting into that window but so far there is no threat.

“It’s really hard to hurt the corn crop between now and, you know, July 1st at this point. It seems like we’re putting that cold weather in the rear view. You might have a few places that are still struggling to get stuff replanted and kind of filtered in here. But on the whole, you know, it’s only the 13th, 14th of May here. We typically plant our best corn, at least in central Illinois, during that time frame anyways. And so I don’t think there’s a lot of concern unless you go cold again or if we’re still looking at persistent rains for the next two weeks,” he says.

The Western Corn Belt is seeing some dry conditions but he says states like Nebraska have irrigation to get the crop up and going.

Soybean Market Awaits China Summit
The soybean market has been trading optimism of a China deal out of the summit this week for some time now. So what are the bulls looking for in the deal and what is already programmed into soybean prices at this point?

Hudson downplayed the meeting. “You know, I don’t know if it’s going to be a big deal as what we want to make it out to be. And the reason I
think that is I don’t I think you could have a lot of frameworks for some of those deals, especially when it’s pertaining to soybeans and some of these ag commodities like that. But we need to see details to see a lot of follow through buying. You probably need to see details,”

He says with the gains in the soybean market going into the meeting there is 30 to 50 cents of risk on the knee jerk reaction if the meeting doesn’t go well.

“But in the same breath, if that meeting doesn’t go well, it probably means you don’t have any more progress in the Middle East. And that’s going to keep our energy markets supported and that inflationary aspect still well alive.”

Soybean Meal Rally Supports Soybeans
Soybean meal was up more than $10 on Wednesday with some unwinding of meal/oil spreads which Hudson says is affecting soy processing margins and company stock.

“ADM would be a perfect example. Some of these biofuel companies, keep in mind the hedges they have to hold during all this. A lot of these margins were locked in initially when we shut the oil flow off from Venezuela, those margins improved. And ever since then, they’re just using their profits to feed their margin calls. I think those profits are going to be even wider here as you get into the fall months and they have new supplies to capture that on,” he explains.

Crush margins had been running at record levels at soy processing plants across the Midwest but especially in Illinois.

November Soybeans to New Highs, July Eyes March Highs
The November soybean contract made new highs on Wednesday and posted a new high close, while July soybeans are still trying to reach the March high of just over $12.50.

Hudson says there have been no soybean shortages yet requiring a push in prices.

“There’s plenty of supply to meet the demand. Those crushers can’t get it in and crush it fast enough. In the meantime, you know, if China wants to buy beans, I still think if it happens it’s going to end up on the new crop balance sheet. I don’t see them knee jerking to buy any old crop beans. And let’s face it, they haven’t really committed to a lot of new crop. So even if we get a positive announcement here, again, you have to look at the details and the volumes of it. And I just don’t know if we’re going to have all that this early in the game.”

Wheat Eases After Limit Up Moves
Winter wheat futures made more new highs early Wednesday still trading the 54 year low in production printed in the WASDE.

However, the market ended lower on a combination of profit taking and some farmer selling.

“We probably all knew this was coming anyways but I don’t think anyone knew the USDA was going to make early adjustment like this
and this instantly has me thinking and probably a lot of other people that you’re going to continue to see additional supply cuts and the first question I have is if the abandonment is going to be that high where do those acres go,” he says.

Options include milo or soybeans and that could impact the acreage numbers at the end of June.

Markets Watch Kansas Wheat Tour Results
The market also faded day one results from the Kansas wheat tour which came in at 38.3 bu. per acre compared to 50.5 bu. for the Day 1 estimate in 2025.

While the tour reinforced USDA’s estimate and there were plenty of visuals to go with it.

“Some of those pictures are just horrendous and just, you know, underscores how bad things are.”

Wheat Pausing Before Next Leg Higher
So was the wheat market just pausing to get more bullish information before taking the next let higher?

Hudson thinks it is possible for wheat to move higher but it is likely to happen in the deferred contracts.

“Because think about acres for next year. You know, not only, you know, we raise wheat all around the globe simultaneously. That’s one of the first markets you could lose acreage somewhere in like a third world country if they can’t get fertilizer or the cost structure gets too high.”

Cotton Hits New Contract Highs
Cotton futures were back higher on Wednesday and nearing the 90 cent mark but will the market get there?

Hudson says, “At this point, why not? You know, we’re looking at two year highs now at this point. I think you’re, you know, this is two prong.
I think you’re looking for more acres, but also the energy pinch that we’re seeing, you know, makes cotton a lot cheaper compared to a lot of this polyester we’re wearing anymore. All those leggings out there.”

Cattle Correct
Cattle futures were higher on corrective buying and with help from higher cash and easing fear about the administration lowering the TRQs on beef imports to increase supplies.

Hudson says, “These headlines took some of the length and took the edge off, but the cash markets are putting it right back in.”

Still he thinks it will be difficult to keep the funds in the market as they will lack confidence in being long with if the administration starts talking
about lowering beef prices again. Funds were still long over 138,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.

He points out that the fundamentals have not changed.

Cash at Record Levels
Cash trade had already developed early in the week at $260 in the South and bids were renewed at higher levels while the futures were trading.

After the board closed the North saw cash trade ranging from $263 to $265 late and dressed prices as high as $410.

Hogs See Short Covering
The lean hog futures were also higher seeing short covering after hitting new lows for the move on Tuesday.

Hudson says the market got oversold. “Things got a little cheaper than I would have expected. Maybe I had a bit of a bias there but with the capitulation you saw on the chart today, maybe that’s enough to put a bottom in this market, at least for a little while until we see how some of this geopolitics play out that we talked about.”

The back months also continue to price in disease concerns and are chasing the higher priced beef market.

Row Crops Extend Gains: Is a Bull Market Emerging?

Wed, 13 May 2026 16:25:01 GMT

Grains were mostly higher early Wednesday. Livestock started mixed then turned higher as well.

Has Wheat Priced in Production Cuts?
After limit up closes on Tuesday, the winter wheat market started mixed Wednesday under expanded limits.

Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says futures were pausing to digest USDA’s big production cut on winter wheat to the lowest level since 1972.

He thinks additional upside is limited as the market has factored the cuts into the market. “I think for the time being, yeah, it’s priced in. We’re struggling to get the European wheat complex to follow along. I think we’re going to need some support from that market to extend this rally on the U.S. wheat side.”

Kansas Wheat Tour Results
Meanwhile the Wheat Quality Council is holding their annual tour through Kansas this week with a summary on Thursday. The first day of the tour, showed a 38.3 bushel per acre yield versus 50.5 last year.

That surprised Gieseke. “I mean 38 isn’t too far off from the five-year average closer to 45. It’s just been extremely dry, I mean it started out hot and low moisture and then you throw in a frost and a freeze and now it’s still staying dry. So, I would have expected a bigger deeper cut than you know six to seven bushels.”

Abandonment rate will be the big key he says especially with higher diesel costs providing little incentive to harvest the crop, even with higher wheat prices.

“Higher diesel costs. I mean, that’s that’s something that the farmer is going to get charged with fuel surcharges. We all know feed trucks are charging fuel surcharges and anything with transportation is going to be higher input costs. If you have a marginal wheat crop, I just kind of really question how much they’re going to be anticipating going to get it,” he explains.

Global Wheat Numbers
Digging into global wheat numbers in the WASDE he was looking at the data on Australian from the Foreign Ag Service regarding 2026 production and Canada.

“They were going to cut production in Australia due to lack of fertilizer or diesel they accounted for some of that but more so they the bigger side of the cuts that they made for the 26 crop was due to weather shifts accounting for El Nino. The WASDE actually did a pretty good job of funneling that into yesterday’s report. I think the Foreign Ag Service cut Australia production about 7 million metric ton year on year. I believe the WASDE cut it about six. So they did a good job of incorporating that into yesterday’s report. Canada actually also got cut. Foreign Ag Service also cut Canada’s production here beginning of April. So they did a good job of accounting for that in yesterday’s report.”

Corn Trading Higher, Global Stocks Tightest Since 2013
The WASDE did not provide much bullish fodder on the domestic balance sheets with new crop ending stocks at 1.957 billion bu. However, the global stocks were down 19.4 MMT from last year says Gieseke.

“I think the price trend will continue to push higher here from a world perspective that was the real story yesterday. I think it’s the stocks to use number once again we have to account for demand when we talk about total supplies here on grain moving forward because demand has increased so much on all these commodities with these lower prices. So, I mean a 21.1% world stocks to use number is as tight as it’s been since going back to 2018, which if you remember that’s pre-China finding 60 million metric ton of corn in their stocks,” he explains.

So, stocks are as tight as it’s been since 2013 and the corn market doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room.

Chart Breakout in Corn
Gieseke thinks the market is on the verge of a bull market or a chart breakout as the front month continuation chart shows higher highs for the last two months.

“I just pull up a monthly continuation chart and I just kind of look at that chart structure and say, you know, a monthly close at $5 or higher is probably going to be that next indicator for us, whether we’re stuck in a range. So the range would be, you know, 2024 low. The 2025 low is actually higher than the 24 low. But if we can get that close above $5, that would be a step in the right direction compared to the 2025 high, which was made last February. A close above $5 on front months would kind of set the stage for that next leg higher here,” he adds.

Corn demand has been strong, especially with record exports but what is the catalyst to get old crop corn above $5 with carryout still over 2.0 billion bu.? Would China business be the key or a weather issue?

“Given the time of year that we’re in, it’s without a doubt going to be supply side. You know how the Brazilian crop finishes off here or you know the Western Corn Belt here is very dry. I know this weather system moving in in the next week we’ll we’ll cover the I states pretty good but you got to remember last year’s crop was ultimately pushed higher because of these the Western Corn Belt actually had some very good yields last year. So, if this dry weather persists it’s going to be a supply lead rally,” he says.

E15 Vote in House
The corn market is supported not only by hopes of China business but the possibility of year-round E15 as the House votes on that bill on Wednesday.

However, Gieseke doesn’t see it as a huge market mover. “I think the market, it’s just going to get muted by everything else going on here this week. I’m not anticipating much of a move from it.”

Soybeans Gear up for China Summit
The soybean market has been gearing up for the China summit for several weeks now. The key will be will agriculture be a focus and it looks that way from the leaders traveling with the President.

“Yeah, it was a powerhouse roster that he brought over there, including the Cargill CEO. You know, today’s this week’s meeting as far as it leads to soybeans I’m not anticipating much more. So, I’m more so continue to watch the just the FOB price in Brazil and how it compares to the U.S. and that spread has closed here the kind of tightened up here the last month or so but the trend on both of those prices that continue to be higher. So, to me I think that’s more of a market mover than, you know, today’s or this week’s discussions in China.”

Market Anticipating 25 MMT of Soybeans
Still the market has been gearing up for 25 million metric tons of soybeans to be confirmed by China for this year. So it that isn’t part of the deal will soybeans sell off due to disappointment?

He says, “Only to the extent of Brazilian prices. Brazil is going to continue to be the floor of the market, and we shouldn’t need to be the cheapest soybean in the world. We just need to be competitive with Brazil’s exports. Again, if that spread between U.S. and Brazil stays within 50, 60 cents of each other here during our harvest or if the gap can close, I think we can meet that 25 million metric ton. It’s just way too early to write it off as we won’t.”

July Soybeans Take Out March High?
From a technical standpoint, July beans have not taken out the March highs although November keeps making some new highs for the move here.

Will July make new highs if China confirms any U.S. soybean business? He says,"There’s a gap on old crop beans in the $12.32 area, interday chart. So if we close that, that’d be a good check in the right direction.”

How high could November soybeans climb? “I mean, as far as new crop beans, $12.30 is going to be an area of interest for us to start hedging
some more.”

Soybean Oil Rally Stalling?
The soybean market has also rallied on the back of the soybean oil rally and the 60% increase in the RVO levels for biomass based diesel blending volume.

However, Gieseke says that rally is getting mature. “We’re going to date this back to January when it started to break out. A lot of the commodity indexes actually started to break out in January. Soybean oil was kind of the first of the ag sector or the grain sector to start to break out.Technical projection was just that weekly cup and handle formation that we’ve talked about before. It actually met that target here last week. So we’re actually not anticipating too much of a sell -off here in soybean oil. The rally has been extensive, but we’re really looking at meal kind of taking a little more of a leadership role here going forward for the next few weeks.”

Commodity Index Hits 2.5 Year High
The rally in bean oil has been on the heels of the surge in the diesel fuel heating oil and crude oil markets. Retail diesel prices hit record highs on Wednesday and coincide with inflation figures heating up with both the PPI and CPI rising.

So that continues to bring money into the commodities and grain markets.

He says, “The Bloomberg Commodity Index, we tracked that pretty closely. That took out 2022 highs. We really don’t see it slowing down. Typically, it might slow down, but we don’t see that trend reversing yet. To slow that down, you need something like, again, higher interest rates, unemployment picking up some sort of breaking point.”

Start of a Bull Market in Grains?
So do he anticipate money will continue to come into the grains because of that inflation risk and start a bull market like we saw back in 2020 after COVID?

“Yeah. I mean, I don’t see anything from a technical standpoint or monetary standpoint that says it’s short-lived. For right now, I’m just kind of staying out of the way and along for the ride.”

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Crop: Corn, Soybeans See Surprises

Tue, 12 May 2026 22:07:23 GMT

Grains ended higher Tuesday with limit up moves in winter wheat, livestock were mostly lower.

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Production
Both classes of winter wheat ended limit up on the day as USDA shocked the market with their aggressive production cuts in the May WASDE according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, StoneX.

USDA lowered wheat yield by 5.8 bu. per acre to 47.5 bu. and lowered all wheat production to 1.561 billion bu. which is below last year by 424 million bu. and the smallest crop since 1972.

Total winter wheat production was pegged at 1.048 billion bu. down 25% from 2025 drug down by a 36% cut to the hard red winter wheat crop.

He thinks production could be cut even further in the future. “I think we’ve seen quite a bit of deterioration here over the last couple of weeks. These are May 1 numbers, so we may see a little bit lower number. Industry tour this week should give us a bigger idea on that.”

Plus, his experience is when USDA makes a big jump on its first estimate, that typically means that there could be more moves coming. “Because they tend to be fairly conservative and don’t want to overshoot. They don’t like correcting back the other way.”

Abandonment is the Key
Suderman says the key is the percent abandonment of winter wheat acres.

“Now, the USDA’s abandonment number is pretty close to what we modeled, but how might high diesel prices affect that? Because as diesel prices increase, they increase the cost of running the combine over those acres, raising the break-even level at which you decide, is it worth actually taking the combine into the field? So we may push that abandonment a little bit higher.”

He thinks for Kansas a 17% abandonment rate is pretty reasonable but it may be much higher in Texas and Oklahoma, maybe Colorado than it will be elsewhere.

How High Do Wheat Prices Rally?
Hard red winter wheat made new highs on Tuesday and closed limit up but how high will prices run? Can futures get above $7.50?

Suderman explains, “Well, the interesting thing about wheat is it doesn’t necessarily trade supply and demand fundamentals so much as it trades headlines and emotions. We saw back in 2010 when there were headlines of fires and drought-stricken Russia, and we doubled the price of Chicago wheat in five weeks and then it came collapsing down. We realized, oh, we traded that story. The fundamentals aren’t that tight after all. So you can just run with emotions and the funds can go with it.”

Plus, he says funds can take wheat prices too far in either direction. “If you get a headline out of Iran saying the war is over type of a thing, you could see a collapse of crude oil really suck the air out of these grain and oil seed markets as well.”

Global Wheat Stocks Fall
Global wheat stocks also fell 4.2 MMT to 275 MMT but could those supplies shrink further with the talk of lower production and yield due to higher fertilizer prices and lower use?

“I think some of it comes down to do we actually see reductions in fertilizer application. One of the things we are seeing is a reduction in area because of high fertilizer and fuel prices. As we go into Argentina and Australia in the Southern hemisphere, we’re there in the middle of planting now. It looks like a 5% to 6% reduction in area.”

Corn Ending Stocks Down Slightly
USDA lowered corn production nearly 1 billion bu. to just under 16 billion bu.

New crop ending stocks were estimated at 1.957 billion bu. which is down 185 million bu. from last season and under the psychological 2.0 billion bu. mark. Still it was above trade estimates.

Suderman says his estimate was lower than that, “I was at 1.833 billion bushels. So I do think there’s some downside to this. But regardless, once you slip below 1.5 billion, that’s when the market starts caring, it wouldn’t take much of a yield drop in order to do that with this acreage.
I do think there’s a chance that we could see a little bit more of an acreage shift from corn to soybeans, maybe another million acres or so, helping to bring that down,”

He also thinks exports could get stronger moving ahead unless Brazil’s crop is further increased and cut U.S. exports.

Global Corn Stocks Fall
The bigger bullish factor is the huge draw down in global supplies in the new crop marketing year.

USDA estimates 277.5 MMT carryout for 2026-27 which is down 19.4 MMT from last season and could continue to decline next year.

“I think this is a pattern that we’re going to see more of the next year is drawing down supplies with high fuel, high fertilizer, increased uses for biofuels. The biofuel story, I think, is one that we’re just starting to tell now, going to use more feedstock,” he explains.

Brazil and Argentina Corn Production Hike
The impressive part was global corn stocks fell despite an increase in the Brazilian and Argentine crop by a total of 10 MMT.

Suderman says, “I think the market’s already priced a lot of that in. USDA just hasn’t put it into its balance sheet yet. So you look at Argentina,
USDA was holding down at 52 million metric tons or far too long. Many private estimates are 64 to 65 million metric tons. I think it’s probably closer to 60 million metric tons. USDA is now at 57. We’re at 58. Brazil could go a little bit higher as well.”

He stresses that Brazil is using a lot more corn for ethanol and is increasing its blend from 30% to 32%.

USDA Cuts Soybean Ending Stocks
USDA lowered old crop ending stocks for soybeans down to 340 million bu. with new crop down to 310 million bu. despite 3.5 million more acres.

Suderman says biofuels demand helped to push the crush figure up to 2.730 billion bushels for 2026-27 and there is a possibility that number could go higher.

“The question is going to be exports. As I said, USDA went up on their exports, so 1.603 billion bushels for exports next year, up 100 million bushels.”

He thinks that’s a stretch. “China only buys about 12 million metric tons. I don’t see them buying the 25 million metric tons because A, these numbers show that we don’t have it and they don’t have the room in their reserve for it. As high prices our beans are relative to Brazil beans, that’s where they would go is in their reserve and they don’t have the room for it.”

So, Suderman predicts China will buy soybeans but 12 MMT or less. “How much less is the question.”

China to Buy Corn and Wheat, Not Soybeans?
USDA in the May WASDE pegged China’s soybean stocks nearly steady, but other crops are expected to see draw downs.

“When you look at their wheat stocks at about a 10-year low, their corn stocks at about 13-year low, could we possibly see wheat and corn in the trade deal rather than all the soybeans everybody’s talking about? I think that’s a real possibility. We should learn that in a couple of days.”

If China only buys 12-13 MMT that is half of what they said they would purchase and that would be a disappointment to the market. So could it weigh on prices?

Suderman says, “I think with a strong biofuel program in the end, we would end up with ending stocks similar to where they are now. And I think domestic demand is what’s really going to be driving it. If they didn’t buy anything, then that would be a problem. If they buy 12 million metric tons, I think that keeps us well balanced in here, particularly with fuel prices staying high, the demand for biofuels.”

He doesn’t expect China to buy cotton as part of the deal because they are able to source those needs from Brazil.

Beef may also be off the table as President Trump wants to keep U.S. prices down especially ahead of the mid term elections.

Cattle Market Fears Imports
The cattle market has been down the last couple of sessions on fears of increased beef imports.

President Trump has backed off his executive order to eliminate the tariff rate quotas on beef imports but the market is not convinced.

He says, “A little over a 26% tariff that Brazil has to pay on what it exports to the United States right now. If you wipe that out, that suddenly drops their beef prices well below where we’re at currently here in the United States and would be expected to significantly increase exports to the United States.”

Suderman says President Trump is focused on bringing down food prices and the CPI data Tuesday did not support that goal.

“We once again saw those food prices being a significant significant contributor to inflation and beef is right at the top of the list there. And so he’s trying to do that ahead of the elections. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that at all,” he says.

Cattle Market Top?
The administration has also announced stepped up efforts on anti-competitive practices with a DOJ investigation of the big four meat packers.

So is that going to top the market like it did back in October of 2025 and cause fund liquidation?

“I’ve been wrong on that so many times this year. I hate to say it again. It certainly does suggest maybe a near-term top. But every time we expect that, we come back to the reality of tight domestic supplies,” he says.

The consumer is still spending, and the data has really been supporting the consumer continuing to spend he says.

” The question is, is how much we are effectively able to increase the supply with those increased imports. We’re already importing record levels. What’s our capacity for further adding to that? Because it looks like the consumer’s going to continue to buy if we can. significantly increases imports. Then we can see those beef prices come down and we start to see the reduction then in the prices for the live cattle.”

The key is cash and after record prices last week for cattle the packers are already paying $260 and $400 already this week.

Grains Rally on War, WASDE, China Meeting: Cattle Hit by Beef Import Fear

Mon, 11 May 2026 21:51:39 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended higher Monday with cattle mostly lower.

Grains Add Risk Premium
Grains markets were higher on Monday adding risk premium tied to the breakdown of the peace talks with Iran over the weekend and higher energy prices.

Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says both sides rejected the deal and so funds were buying and as long as crude oil stays at high prices that will bring in inflationary buying.

“I think you move some of those investors from the equity markets to the grain side, one on inflationary concerns, but two, just saying these things are undervalued. We know we have plenty of supplies at the present time but that could change. But let’s just take some money and put over there. And I think that was really the catalyst that it got started. Now we got to see what it takes to get it to go further,” he explains.

Big News Week....Including China Summit
The other factor that is moving the grain markets and bringing in fund buying is optimism about ag purchases as part of this week’s China summit between President Trump and President Xi.

Soybeans have been adding premium heading into the meeting according to Boddicker. “The market always gets excited when President Xi and President Trump are going to get together, knowing great things are going to happen, but we’ll see if it does or not. You know, in the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz closed that might be more of an incentive for China to come in and do some things with the U.S. to try to get some concessions and get that opened back up.”

How Much China Business Priced Into Soybeans?
But how much of the soybean purchase agreements with China is already priced into the soybean market?

Boddicker says, “One would have to think that most of it is. We are here in the seasonal time, on the beans where you put some highs in, but nothing saying you couldn’t have. But when you have these types of summits most of it’s priced in ahead of time, unless there’s some really huge surprise that you’re not thinking of.”

China Buying Other Ag Goods?
The other key is whether or not China buys other ag products beyond soybeans as the grain market is already pricing some of that in as well.

“One ship can keep all afloat sometimes, and I think that’s helping. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if China did some corn and some wheat in here, but time will tell if they do,” he adds.

Running Into Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans may have stalled out though running into chart resistance on Monday.

Could the market break above those recent highs with some good news from China?

Boddicker says, “I think it’s a possibility. You know, if I were a producer and I didn’t have much done on new crop beans somewhere from here to $12, I would be pricing somewhere whether that be in the cash or in the futures. If I did futures, if I started going back over $12 or $12.60 or so. I’d probably exit that and see where it went because I’d have a breakout at that point. But I think it’s not a bad area to do some things.”

July corn is also nearing the double top from last week at $4.78 1/2 but Boddicker thinks that mark could be retested.

“I think it’s a possibility. After hitting chart resistance you really thought this thing could break back to $4.50 to $4.60 and you went to $4.61, which I think was great support. And that’s a 25, 26 cent break, which would be about right,” he says.

Boddicker thinks the corn market needs to get a supply shock from weather or a demand shock from the China summit to get through overhead resistance.

He probably needs some news to get going in here with the supplies we got to do, whether that’s weather or something out of the China summit in here.

May WASDE Positioning
The grain market was also gearing up for the May WASDE with little change expected in the old crop balance sheets.

The focus will be on the first new crop estimates of the season and the trade is anticipating soybean production to be up 183 million bu. from last year at 4.445 billion bu. due to a 3.5 million acre increase in acreage. Yet, the ending stocks are estimated to be up only 19 million bu. from last year at 364 million.

Corn production could be down over 1 billion bu. from last year with acreage cut nearly 3.5 million against a trendline yield of 183 bu. That brings ending stocks down nearly 200 million bu. to 1.933 billion bu.

Boddicker says that is largely priced into the corn market.

Winter wheat production is expected to fall 200 to 250 million bushels below last year with ending stocks down to 833 million bu.

Boddicker says that is reasonable with the problems in the hard red winter wheat crop.

“I think you get a lot of areas that are dry and that wheat’s really gotten hurt. The next two or three weeks, as you know, is going to be critical. But just where it goes from this point, I’m
not sure. But I think there could be some surprises there. But whether they’re going to bring it out now or later, time will tell us,” he says.

Kansas Wheat Quality Tour
The size of the Kansas wheat crop will at least be determined by scouts on this week’s Wheat Quality Tour but will it move the market?

Boddicker says, “The trade has a lot of that priced in with looking at bad conditions that we’ve seen. We got a little improvement last Monday on the report but could they come back and say, hey, there’s more acres that we’re going to destroy here. That could be the real surprise.”

Exports and Inspections
The corn market saw flash sales on Monday morning of 15 million bu. of corn to Mexico, split between old and new crop. South Korea also bought 5.8 million bu. of corn.

Weekly export inspections were strong on corn at 66.6 million bu. with the year to date total up 30% from last year.

Soybeans export inspection were at 24.1 million bu. which are solid for this time of year, but the total is still 23% below last year.

Wheat export inspections were 18.8 million bu. and now total 840 million bu. which is up 13%.

Boddicker says that data was mostly supportive and reflects a change in attitude by many countries that are stockpiling grain.

“A few months ago, I think we can go back and say that we changed the attitude of that importer to say, I’m no longer going to buy hand to mouth. I better put something in reserve just in case more gets out of hand with the American and Iranian war and other things going on in the world,” he explains.

Cattle Market Hit by Beef Import Hike
Cattle futures were mostly lower except for nearby contracts reversing the strong opening.

The market reacted to President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations to curb record high beef prices.

Boddicker says, “What can break the camels back? When President Trump came out and said that he’s going to drop the tariffs on Brazilian beef and other countries to get more beef in the U.S.”

He says this caused funds and algorithm traders to again liquidate on concerns that the government is getting involved in trying to get beef prices down at the grocery store.

“We looked at preliminary open interest numbers from the CME this morning were looking like we were down 2,100 contracts, which would have meant long liquidation on Friday on the sell-off. And then when they came up with final numbers, it was a plus 3,900. Again, a 6,000 contract swing indicating there was more new selling on Friday. Something wreaks in Denmark on that much of discrimination or discrepancy between those reports,” he adds.

Cattle Market Topping Action?
However, it is hard to call a top in this type of market he says.

“We’ve seen this action before and every time it’s come back. When we look at some cyclical things, you’re looking for some intermediate term highs in both feeder cattle and fat cattle in May. So could we have done that already? We could. I think only time is going to answer it. But this market, as we all know, is fundamentally is strong but is still headline driven,” he says.

The market also failed to rally on record cash trade which topped at $260 in the North and don’t forget the DOJ probe announcement on Friday.

“The only thing that bugs me on that is what are we going to find out? We’re just getting settlements from the last DOJ probe. What are we going to do different this time than we did last time?”

Hog Bounce
Lean hog futures bounced off the new contract lows scored on Friday. So was this just a one day pop?

Boddicker says he was encouraged the summer months at least held chart support after testing it the last several sessions and it came as cattle futures fell.

Can the continue to market recover?

He says, “It feels like we maybe have the high end for the year but a $5, $6 rally would not be unexpected,”

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:32 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

High Stakes: Trump-Xi Summit, WASDE and E15 Set Up Crucial Week for Ag Commodity Markets

Mon, 11 May 2026 10:48:18 GMT

A faltering spring rally for grains and the soy complex may hang in the balance as producers and traders prepare for a week jam-packed with potentially market-moving events.

On Tuesday, USDA will deliver its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will offer the department’s initial outlook for the new crop year.
On Wednesday, the House is slated to vote on long-sought legislation to green-light year-round sales of E15.
What is likely to be the main event, President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China Thursday and Friday, where a meeting with leader Xi Jinping is hoped to bring affirmation that Beijing will follow through on commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and possibly other agricultural goods.

There’s also the Iran war, which in the past week overshadowed individual market fundamentals as a U.S. proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict sparked a crude selloff that dragged grain markets back from recent highs.

Let’s break down what’s at stake:

May WASDE

While the May outlook often sets the initial tone for the new crop year, the timing of the forecast during corn and soybean planting season leaves high potential for changes later in the year, with both acreage and yield still fluid.

Over the past 30 years, on average, USDA’s initial forecast for soybean ending stocks is 78 million bushels higher than the final estimate. For corn, that disparity is even wider at 129 million bushels higher than the initial forecast. With fuel and fertilizer prices rising sharply this spring, that further exacerbates the variability around potential yields as farmers may cut inputs to save costs.

Due to winter wheat already being planted and the agency including survey yield data in this report, the margin of error in ending stocks is smaller and averages 51 million bushels lower than the final.

The May WASDE is generally neutral in terms of the direction it moves the price of row crops based on these trends the past 30 years:

July HRW and SRW wheat futures ended the day of the WASDE release higher 14 times
December corn higher 16 times
November soybeans higher 12 times

In absolute values, the change in price is 11 3/4 cents for July HRW wheat, 10 1/4 cents for July SRW wheat, 7 cents for December corn and 11 1/4 cents for November soybeans. Still, outliers are possible. 2022’s initial forecast sent wheat futures soaring, with KC July wheat rising 69 1/2 cents following the release that compounded on worries of lower production from the Black Sea at that time.

E15

After being once again left on the cutting-room floor during legislative wrangling over the farm bill, E15 legislation is slated for a House vote. Following farm bill passage last month, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson said a vote on standalone legislation would take place on May 13 . High fuel prices driven by the Iran war have intensified bipartisan pressure to pass the bill before the midterm elections, though oil-state opposition remains a hurdle.

It isn’t yet clear a vote will take place. Full passage would bolster biofuel demand at the margin, while a successful House vote would perhaps provide a timely psychological lift for corn futures.

Trump-Xi Summit

The postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting in mid-March sent soybeans into a tailspin , underlining the stakes surrounding the rescheduled summit. Soybean producers want to hear affirmation – from Beijing – that China is prepared to follow through on what the White House has said is a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans per calendar year for the next three years. That’s less than what China was buying before Beijing’s boycott of U.S. purchases that undercut the market last year. China has yet to affirm specific targets.

Soybean exports picked up as China resumed purchases after Trump and Xi struck a one-year trade truce in October, but continue to run behind the pace necessary to hit USDA’s current marketing year projection of 1.54 million bushels.

(Pro Farmer)

The good news is that such a commitment may be low-hanging fruit. What’s more, reports have portrayed Chinese negotiators as open to purchases of an array of agricultural goods, including beef, poultry and non-soybean row crops – in addition to soybeans. Trade watchers say an agreement that would see China buy agricultural goods and aircraft alongside further tariff reductions may be the summit’s most likely outcome, with thornier issues kicked down the road.

A deal could trigger a relief rally, but risks remain. Friction over the Iran war, AI guardrails and Taiwan could make Xi reluctant to commit. Given how sensitive soybeans have been to China-related headlines, a disappointing outcome could quickly rattle the market.

The War and the Market

The nosedive by crude-oil futures this past week dragged corn, wheat and soybeans back from new highs, raising questions about the staying power of a budding spring rally that saw December corn briefly push above the $5 a bushel mark. The coming week will see market participants run a gauntlet of market-moving fundamental events that may end up setting near-term direction.

Soybeans Strong Heading Into China Summit

Sat, 09 May 2026 01:08:38 GMT

For the week July corn was 9 cents lower, December corn was down 5 ¾, July soybeans gained 4 ¾, November soybeans added 6 ¾, July soybean meal was $.40 higher, July bean oil lost 84 points, July soft red winter wheatlost 18 ¾, July hard red winter lost 18 ¾, July hard red spring wheat fell 24.

Strong Week in Soybeans on China Hopes
Soybeans ended sharply higher on Friday and posted higher weekly closes on optimism about the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on May 14-15 in Beijing.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.

In late October, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans for the current year and 25 MMT for the three years following. President Trump followed that up with a social media post on February 4 indicating China would be buying an additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans.

Gulke says Friday’s rally in soybeans was impressive and the technical action for the week was positive as the November contract closed above the March and April highs.

“November took out the March highs early this week, then backed off Wednesday and Thursday, then turned around and went back up again. So, it’s respecting new highs for May. That’s important. If you can stay above the April and March highs like we have and exceed it then you’re probably on to something that’s more long-term. We’ve done that in new crop,” he explains.

July or old crop soybeans filled the gap from the limit down day on March 9 when President Trump announced he was delaying the China summit due to the war in Iran, but could not close above the March high.

He says when a market fails like that it is a concern but if the market is positive enough to close above that gap it’s significant and signals a bigger rally.

So next week will be a pivotal week to see if July soybeans can close above the March high of $12.50 3/4, especially with the big news items hitting the market including the May WASDE and the China summit.

Corn Lower for the Week, Funds Still Long
On the other hand, corn posted lower weekly closes in both the July and December contacts, which is concerning to Gulke.

It may be tied to more acres of corn being planted than what USDA indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report.

Gulke says in talking to his seed dealer, he indicated he had not seen any farmers bring back corn to exchange for soybeans.

“There was a lot of talk about it, but he said nobody really did it in any significance. And so you have a lot of rumors and innuendo, but when you talk to some of the seed corn guys, it wasn’t significant if it was at all.So, apparently, they found inputs,” he states.

Gulke also talked to his fertilizer supplier, who indicated they had enough fertilizer in stock for anyone that did not pre-book.

“They’ll pay more than they would have in October or November but they can get it,” he says, “So, I’m wondering whether things are as bad as the media would have led us to believe. Just because prices got high, does not mean it wasn’t available.”

Funds Long in Corn and Soybeans
According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report the funds are long in both corn and soybeans and added to those positions in the last week.

In the soybean complex the managed money traders have been long for several weeks.

Gulke says, “It’s very impressive. I would have probably bet they stayed neutral maybe even liquidate a little but it looks like they bought into any kind of weakness.They did a huge, huge amount in new crop corn and corn and beans in general.”

Some in the trade media, according to Gulke, will come out Monday saying when traders get this long they need to get out at some time.“And when he gets out, the doors are not going to be big enough to let him out.”

Gulke disagrees.“The large spec is kind of like a hockey player that wants to shoot the puck or watch where he thinks the puck’s going to go and not where it is. And that’s what they’re looking at.They’re opportunists. They’re buying grain or buying stocks or whatever in anticipation of selling it at a higher price.”

So, the funds can keep defending their market longs longer than you think or in the case of wheat funds were short for nearly four years.

“You have the speculator who bets millions and billions on managing money. They’re still long. If you’re heavily negative agriculture, you probably look over your shoulder and say, what am I missing? We’ll find that out later but usually the large spec is smarter than I am, so I watch him pretty close,” he concludes.

For more information you can contact Jerry and info@gulkegroup.com .

Soybeans Lead Grain Recovery Friday on Talk of China Soybean Purchases

Fri, 08 May 2026 21:30:05 GMT

Grains ended higher Friday with cattle lower.

Grains Recover Friday, Follow War Headlines
Grain markets recovered on Friday with crude oil as the hopes for a cease fire and peace deal with Iran started to fade.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week.

“Headlines have been all over the place. We came into the week with crude oil sharply higher, thinking that the blockade that was on from the United States and of course also by Iran was going to be long lived. And the market was even looking and saying that that blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last to the end of summer,” he says.

Grains and a lot of commodities added war premium because of that and then reversed lower on news of a peace deal later in the week.

“When the we saw a mutual letter of understanding, a one pager by President Trump to the Iranians trying to find a way to open the Strait and maybe get to a 30-day negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That gave the market a drop, if you will. And then on Friday, as tensions started to come back up as the U.S. attacked a few tankers, the market added war premiums. So in my mind, war is still the big factor in grain trade. We’ll see how the next week plays out. But next week,

Strait Reopening is Key
The big key is getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Basse is giving that about 33% odds.

“I’ve increased it a little bit because I do believe that there’s pressure on the Iranians as they run out of storage for their crude oil production to maybe get back to the negotiating table,” he says.

He says a forced deal in which the U.S. military and Iran will go back and forth will open it up for short periods of time, otherwise the U.S. may continue the blockade.

“But as you go forward, again, we’ll see how Trump is able to negotiate. And the Iranians at this point are not anxious to get to the negotiating table, which concerns me. But we’ll see how Pakistan really nudges them forward along with the Chinese,” he says.

Corn and Wheat Rally Over?
Without a re-escalation could the corn and wheat rally be over, especially after lower weekly closes?

“Managed money or funds are along about a half million contracts of grain, corn, soybeans, and wheat, it does show the markets put a tremendous amount of war premium in the price. We’ve done some analysis at AgResource. We think it’s about 45 cents on corn, $1.40 on beans, and about 25 cents on wheat in terms of war premium. If that war were to end, that premium comes out. I also believe the markets will be more focused on new crops,” he adds.

So he thinks farmers should be rewarding the market rallies.

Soybeans End Higher on China Purchase Talk
Soybeans led the rally on Friday with the summit coming up May 14 and 15.

Basse says, “The summit is expected to produce maybe some Chinese buying. Rumors from China on Friday had them buying some 12 to 13 million metric tons from the United States. If I combine that with the 12 million tons they bought last November through of, let’s say, the end
of January, that would take us to 25 million metric tons. And remember, back in that November meet, the United States talked about China committing to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. So we’ll see how this all plays out. I do not think that buying 12 or 13 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is all that bullish.”

That’s because it will lead to lower soybean export figures but still the market saw this as demand from China and it got the market moving higher on Friday.

China Summit Deliverables?
So what is the market looking for to keep the China premium built into the soybean market intact?

Basse says, “The USTR and Ambassador Greer has been talking about a board of trade idea. And the board of trade is not in Chicago. It’s a board of trade concept in which the United States would start to sell additional ag commodities to the Chinese under some separate terms. So maybe that includes wheat or corn or beef or other products. And so whether or not Ambassador Greer can get that across the finish line next week will be important. If we broaden commodity mixtures to China, from the United States, that would be more bullish.”

He thinks it will take another summit in November to get that done.

Will China Buy Other Crops?
China has said they want to buy non-soybean row crops though, so could the soybean bulls be disappointed.

He says its entirely possible, “Listen, when we head into these kind of negotiations or summits, it’s all political. And that is something that, you know, as an analyst, we can’t look behind the curtain very far. I am troubled about several things, though. Again, I’d like China to drop its tax on soybeans. It has a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans coming in, a 15% duty on grain. So that needs to end. But on the other side of that, I would be hopeful that maybe we can start to sell some grain to China. and wheat and other meat products. That would just help the U.S. farmer broaden things out.”

He also hopes the two countries can normalize trade with a market-based system.

“Not where presidents Xi or Trump, decide what’s going to happen.”

Global Tariffs Struck Down, Leverage for China?
In additiona, the 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful on Friday. So, does that give China more leverage in these discussions next week?

Basse says, “Oh, it sure does. You know that a 10% tariff was on China. If we remember back to the last meeting that happened back in November, that tariff rate was somewhere just shy of 50%. So the Chinese like to trade. In other words, if they’re going to get a lower tariff, they’ll do something in terms on the buy side. And we saw that with the fentanyl tariffs back in November. If there’s no tariffs on China, which would be the implication of that, that 10% tariff being wiped. out, I wondered what else the United States could provide China. Maybe there’s something on Taiwan. Maybe there’s something elsewhere. But the availability to trade tariffs for China doing something is diminished with this decision that came on.”

He says it’s disappointing that this happened right before the trade summit.

Wheat Topped?
Wheat may have topped but with the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour next week could that shock the market into causing some weather premium to be added?

“I think that we’ll all look to the Kansas tour and the NASS production estimate that comes out on Tuesday as kind of giving us what the probabilities are in terms of how small is small. There’s some of us that see the hard red winter wheat crop down in the 575 to 585 million bushels. If it goes below that, then that will be somewhat bullish,” he explains.

However, he says the world wheat carryover of old and new crop wheat is a near record supply.

“So there’s no shortage of wheat in the world. We just have a shortage of hard red wheat in the Kansas or the Plains. And then the question is, what do U.S. millers do accordingly? But I worry about export demand going forward because we are hearing that Russia is selling wheat
into Mexico. We’re hearing Russia selling wheat into places like Brazil. These are traditional U.S. customers. I hate to see that business being lost to the Russians,” he adds.

He thinks USDA may lower the winter wheat crop between 200 to 225 million bushels with ending stocks dropping 100 to 125 million bushels.

May WASDE Expectations
Will USDA raise corn exports in the May WASDE and lower soybean exports?

“Yeah, I think that’s the popular tone that people want to raise exports a little bit on corn, maybe cut the ethanol estimate because of the inclusion of sorghum in the weekly grinds or monthly grinds. That’s all possible. I think USDA kind of holds pad, if you will, and we don’t see a big change on end stocks. We still stay above 2.1 billion. And then on soybeans, you know, we’re looking at around 340 to 350 million bushels, maybe down 5 to 10 million bushels there. Maybe exports need to be trimmed a little bit in soybeans, but crush numbers need to rise. Wheat won’t change much,” he adds.

For new crop corn ending stocks his estimate is above 2 billion bushels as USDA sticks with trendline yield of 183 bu. Soybeans will also see trendline yield of 53 bu.

The wheat number will change based on the NASS production report of winter wheat.

China export demand is still up in the air. “And a lot of that depends upon the summit on Thursday, Friday. So if I’m USDA, I’m not going to make a big change in Chinese soybean demand just yet.”

The biggest changes could come with USDA raising the Argentinian corn crop, six or seven million metric tons. They also could do the same to Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop could nudge up just a million or two tons, he adds.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures ended lower despite record cash trade. Is that just profit taking or is that a bigger concern?

Basse says, “I believe it’s somewhat of a concern. Seasonally speaking, as we tend to get into the early part of June, excuse me, May, and we normally make a top in the beef market. That top usually corresponds with the Mother’s Day weekend. So coming after that, I expect beef prices to start decline. We also see cash cattle numbers rising, or at least fed cattle numbers rising for the next three or four weeks. Slaughter has been relatively low relative to on-feed estimates over the last four or five weeks. I believe those cattle will now come to market maybe at some heavier weights, and that could cause some easing, if you will, of cash prices.”

But he doesn’t see any end to the longer term bull market in cattle because there is no dramatic expansion in the cattle herd.

“So tightening supplies longer term is still the theme. It’s just that the market could have a correction here,” he adds.

Brazilian Beef Imports
The talk of higher Brazilian beef imports and the DOJ investigation of meat packers may have also spooked the funds.

“Well, we did have President Lula at the White House on Thursday, and there was a discussion of better or improving beef trade into the United States. A lot of that beef will be used for the grind. In other words, hamburger in Brazil was the biggest importer customer into the United States looking backwards to 2024. So I imagine that there is that potential there, but the Brazilians are going to take a little while to have it all happen. And now we’ve got the Section 122 tariff news, there’s a little push on that. But again, I don’t think it’s enough to really collapse the market. I do believe it’s something that could give us a correction,” he states.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:04:51 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Corn, Soybeans Hold Support as Oil Recovers: Cattle Fall Despite Record Cash

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:56:17 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower on Thursday except back month hog futures.

Grains Follow Crude Oil, War Headlines
Grain markets were lower on Thursday still tied to the trend of the crude oil futures and Iran war headlines says Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing.

“You know, we had crude starting the day out significantly lower, putting those lows in fairly early in the session, and grains did very much the same thing,” he says.

He says up until this week the grain markets seemed like they were trying to divorce from the energy sector and trade their own fundamentals but that isn’t the case the last few days.

“I think today was the best example as it traded both on the lows of the day with the crude and on the highs of the day,” he explains.

Corn and Soybeans End Off Lows
So, crude oil started sharply lower Thursday with the continued news of peace talks with Iran and possibility of getting the Strait of Hormuz open, pulling down grain markets.

However, crude oil stabilized as the day progressed following Iran rejecting the terms for a long-term cease fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That reversal in the crude oil market helped to support late day buying in corn and soybeans, even bean oil.

Corn and Soybeans Hold Support
Corn and soybeans also bounced as they held key chart support and bounced off that level.

“We got underneath the moving average that we’re watching kind of mid-day like on the December corn in that $4.85 area. So we definitely had a lower low than that, but the closes kind of saved the day on the charts,” he says.

He says it was a victory for corn to close just a 1/2 cent lower versus at the low end of the trading range today.

“Something to be watching for tomorrow, though. I mean, we’ve kind of put a few days in a row now, some lower highs and some lower lows and busting through some of the moving averages and retracements. So that’ll be a big number tomorrow.”

Will Funds Defend Longs?
The funds had piled into the corn market the last week or so buying over 83,000 contract last week alone and were record long in soybean oil. So will they defend those long positions if crude oil goes down or wait to see if inflation concerns subside?

“I think they can stay in these markets for a little bit longer in the corn. But they can put a lot more contracts on the books too. From a historical standpoint it’s still early in the season for them to be completely exiting. I don’t think that needs to happen today. I think we’ve got a a month to two months left from a seasonality standpoint and then they could shed some positions,” he adds.

Plus, he thinks the inflationary concerns are far from over because it will take a while to get the Strait of Hormuz open and normalized and the managed money traders realize that.

Favorable Planting Weather
The USDA crop progress report has shown planting progress ahead of average which has also weighed on the markets.

While there have been some areas that have struggled with cold and/or wet conditions slowing planting that is starting to change.

Much of the Corn Belt is seeing some more favorable weather and the extended forecast is also conducive for planting which should result in bearish planting figures for corn and soybeans on Mondday.

“It looks to us like most everybody’s getting a window. There’s some spots out into Indiana and into Ohio that we’re a little concerned about yet, Michelle, as far as planting pace goes. But, you know, that eastern Iowa into Illinois looks like we’re going to be in pretty good shape and getting a nice window in a lot of spots.”

Weekly Exports
Weekly exports on Thursday morning were below last week for corn at 53.6 million bu. but still solid for this time of year. Plus, total exports are up 29% from a year ago.

Soybeans were only 5.2 million bu. for old crop which is a marketing low and cumulative exports are down 23% from last year which is disappointing according to Hoogendoorn.

“I think the marketplace is kind of anticipating some of that. We’re not really riding a huge wave higher as far as especially old crop soybean sales go. So I believe some of that’s priced in. We know we’re going to be lower on exports as this year kind of gets to the back half of the year, right, as far as old crop sales go. New crop is hopefully a different story. I think we’ll get a month or so down the road and we’ll start to focus on that which is why we didn’t take that news harder,” he says.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
Also holding the soybean market together is ideas that China could announce soybean purchases at the Summit next week and so it may build those premium back into heading into the meeting. Is this market building those premiums in? T

“Yes, there’s probably some optimism built in there. However, a lot of these type of meetings have been disappointing. Right. So. let’s be a little careful there if we’re truly putting some premium into the market going into into that meeting let’s approach that thing with some caution. Hopefully it’s not warranted but our history would suggest that gets a little disappointing on the actual action items,” he adds.

Wheat Story Over?
The wheat market did not recover off the lows with crude oil and was down sharply especially in hard red winter wheat contracts.

The market is continuing to remove weather premium with some rains or moisture received in dry HRW areas in Colorado and Western Kansas. Plus the frost concerns have not materialized as advertised.

So, Hoogendoorn says the wheat production concerns are starting to fade.

“Well, talk about an impressive story about buy the rumor and sell the fact, right? I mean, this crop has got a lot of issues as far as the hard red winter wheat. So it’s so impressive that we rallied before that news kind of came out, if you will, or before it was official through the USDA. Now we’re getting a lot of that information coming out on the table, but we’re taking a good 60 cents off that wheat market in the meantime. So yes, that’s very much what’s going on. That wheat story has got some age to it,” he states.

The market didn’t even react to the Oklahoma wheat tour results which pegged the crop at only 47.8 million bushels, which was well below the 106.4 million bu. figure from last year.

And while some areas missed frost there are more freezing temperatures in the forecast for this weekend, which have failed to support the market.

Cattle Lower Despite Higher Cash
Cattle futures ended off session lows but were lower on the day.

Early pressure came from lower boxed beef prices, the lower stock market and concerns that a planned meeting between President Trump and Brazil’s president may result in increased beef imports coming into the U.S. to provide some price relief to beef for consumers.

The funds sold early on the headline says Hoogendoorn.

“They wanted to take risk off on this cattle market in a big way today. We’re hearing more rumors of some discussions going on with Brazil.
We’ll see if anything comes out of that in the next 24 to 48 hours. Be watchful and mindful of that type of discussion. Not sure if that’s what spooked it or if it was something else,” he adds.

He adds the only reason cattle ended off their lows was the higher cash market. He says it started out steady but continued to build momentum.

Southern cash trade was reported at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3. Northern trade live ranged from $258 to $260 live with $402 dressed prices, up $3.

Hog Futures End Mixed
Lean hog futures ended mixed with pressure in the front end of the board on continued ample supplies and bear spreading.

He says, “The market’s been trying really hard to justify having these summer futures markets at a premium to the nearby fundamentals, right? And as time passes and we run on a pretty large lack of any good news on the fundamental standpoint, they struggle to justify that premium. That’s exactly the way the market was trading today. That’s the way it’s been trading. Today they did it in the spread market, which, you know, as producers, we have to be pretty thankful for, right? Like we’re able to sell the front end and at least we’re buying the back end was actually able to post some closes that look pretty attractive there, you know, August on back type of a thing.”

But he thinks the market is on the edge of improving with few numbers in the pipeline.

Export Restrictions Due to Pseudorabies
The other good news is so far the only export restrictions tied to pseudorabies remerging after 20 years is Mexico, but that is limited.

“We’ve got the Mexico saying that they’re not interested in our varieties meats anymore. I think that’s a real thing and gonna be in place for a for a while. I don’t know if that’s something that will drag on all summer and into the fall or not mostly a reduction in revenue for the packers. I don’t think it’s going to have a huge impact,” he says.

Still the market has been on edge awaiting those type of announcements and if there are more he thinks they will be traded negatively.

“So the two things to watch, are there more positive cases and if any more news as far as countries restricting exports for sure,” he adds.

Grains Slide Further With Oil as Funds Sell: Where Do the Markets Find Support?

Thu, 07 May 2026 16:23:56 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were all lower to start Thursday.

Grains Continue to Slide with Crude Oil
Grain markets are continuing to slide lower with the falling crude oil market and the idea the Iran war may be ending soon.

However, Darin Newsom, senior market analyst for Barchart, says he thinks the odds of a peace accord with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are between slim and none.

So while the funds are liquidating positions in the grains to shed some risk, it may not last.

“It makes for nice headlines and as we’ve talked about before these markets are all driven by headlines. The reality is the war isn’t somehow mysteriously all over or miraculously completely over. I’m sure there’s still missiles firing. I’m sure there’s still bombs going off. And so what we’ll find out most likely over the weekend, because that’s when these things tend to happen, is that there is no peace, that there is no ceasefire,” he explains.

So he says the markets will need to adjust again coming out of this weekend.

How Far Could Crude Oil and Grains Fall?
Currently the crude oil market is buying into the peace talks and grains futures are falling as a result, especially corn and bean oil which are biofuels derivatives.

So how much lower will prices fall before finding chart support especially as many contracts are nearing some key technical levels?

Newsom says, “We’ve seen so much buying coming into the commodity sector we’ve had these predictive market sites promoting the fact that they’re better gamblers quote unquote investors, can trade commodities basically without regulation by CFTC. And so they’ve been hustling. They’ve been baiting folks and getting people into the markets.”

However, now these speculative traders are getting out.

“So, there’s no real magic level that these markets come down to. What they’re going to have to do is come back to where there is some intrinsic value support, some fundamental support. And as we see, basically across the board in the grain sector is that basis is weak. So the
intrinsic value is weak in relation to where these futures markets have gone. That leaves a lot of room for liquidation. It leaves a lot of room for these markets to come down,” he adds.

He thinks there will be some buying coming out of the weekend in the energy sector which will support soybean oil and soybeans, maybe even corn.

Buying Resume Ahead of China Summit?
Still, once the dust settles the focus will turn towards next week’s meeting with China and the possibility of soybean and other ag purchases.

President Trump’s social media posts have been optimistic regarding the meeting and Newsom says painting a picture about the strong relationship between the two countries and how it will lead to increased China demand for agriculture goods, which has driven some buying in the grains and especially soybeans.

Newsom is skeptical about a meaningful and transparent deal or one that focuses on agriculture. However, he thinks the market will buy into the meeting on those hopes.

“Yes, I would expect the grains sector, for those two reasons, to rally next week. Is there going to be anything really come out of this? No. There’s going to be talk of computer chips, and there’s going to be this and that. But as far as U.S. ag is concerned, nothing’s going to change,” he adds.

China News Priced Into Soybeans?
The other concern is that soybeans have already had a rally on hopes for that additional demand as they are nearly $2 higher than a year ago. That means the market could fade any deal with China.

However, Newsom says some of that premium has come from the soybean oil market and biofuels demand which isn’t going away.

“A lot of what’s happened in the soybean market has to do with soybean oil. Again, if we look at bean oil, we know that the funds have gone to a record large long and record large net long futures position here of late. So that’s really been what’s been pulling soybeans higher,” he says.

Soybean Oil Priced in Processing Demand?
Soybean processing demand has been stout due to record crush margins tied to the new RVO blending levels into biofuels and that has helped drive the soybean oil market into new highs.

“That isn’t necessarily going away,” he points out.

However, crude oil and heating oil or diesel fuel prices have also driven the rally and if they cool will it also mean a top is in the bean oil market?

“To me, we’ve most likely built in the bulk of this explosion in demand. And we can attach a bit of an asterisk from the biofuels standpoint,” he adds.

Additionally, diesel fuel prices are likely to stay elevated even if crude oil prices fall due to record tight inventory. So if diesel prices stay high, that should support bean oil prices.

“We just ran a study showing just the one-month correlation is up near 100%. And I know correlation does not prove causation but anytime you get 94%, 95%, it raises an eyebrow, and there’s been a tight correlation between the two markets. That has brought funds into the market,” he says.

Export Demand
Biofuels and record soybean crush are making up for some of the lost exports this year to China. While it is normal seasonally for soybean exports to cool, weekly exports were a marketing year low of 5.2 million bu. and to date soybean sales are down 23% from last year.

Corn exports were at 53.6 million bu. which were strong while wheat exports at 2.9 million bu. were also week.

Corn exports to date were up 29% from a year ago.

“But what we’re seeing is if we take those total shipments and we project them out based on the average of what we normally have shipped this point of year, that pace projection for corn continues to come down. The trend since basically last fall has been for that pace projection to come down. You know, yes, we still have solid demand. Yes. You know, it’s still going to come in above last year’s reported shipments by the time we get to the end of the marketing year.”

So the market has already built in the most bullish scenario for U.S. corn export demand.

“And at this point, you know. the future spreads and basis are still weak. You know, so if we look at national average basis, it’s still running at or below the previous 10-year low weekly closes. So, I mean, so it just tells us that supplies are still adequate. Available supplies are still adequate to meet demand,” he adds.

Wheat Rally Over?
The wheat market was the first to climb to two-year highs in the winter wheat contracts, but has had a big correction removing war and weather premium.

So is the lower production of HRW wheat factored in already? Newsom thinks so.

“The reality is that the hard red winter crop has been hurt. We know that. I’ve talked to folks from the Southern Plains. The 2026 crop has been hurt. Again, if we look at new crop future spreads, they’re still covering a neutral, at best, level of calculated full commercial carry. So the commercial side of the market was saying, look. We may have smaller production this year, but it’s not going, at least right now, it’s not that dramatic. It’s not going to change the supply and demand situation all that much. Plus, you know, basis versus the July and September futures contracts is incredibly weak at this point, heading into harvest, you know, across the far Southern plains.”

A few weeks ago the speculators were also buying wheat on headlines, so there was money flowing into the complex, even SRW wheat.

“So this money flow, particularly in the Chicago market, that’s the more heavily traded futures market, was coming into wheat for no reason whatsoever. I mean, we’ve got Chicago, we’ve got soft red winter spreads covering 90% plus calculated full commercial carry. That’s not bullish. That’s not fundamentally bullish. Yet the money was pouring in. And so that money’s probably starting to come back out. And so regardless of how much damage has been done to the hard red winter crop, if we continue to see selling coming into the soft red winter crop, it’s going to spill over into hard red winter, particularly as harvest starts rolling along,” he explains.

Oklahoma Wheat Crop Cut
That may be why the market did not react to the results of the Oklahoma crop tour. The crop was only 47.8 million bushels versus 106.4 last
year.

He says, “The market didn’t care about it.”

Cattle Fall, But Beef Demand Is Not
Cattle futures were lower on Thursday with the rest of the complex despite some light cash trade so far this week at higher money.

The market is seeing some profit taking but there is no evidence of consumer demand rationing yet on beef according to Newsom, even with higher gas prices. At least not yet.

“You know, the choice has to be made between fuel or high priced beef. And so, you know, yes, we’ve seen gasoline crumble this week. But again, I don’t think it’s permanent. So I think there is some concern. There’s still some concern in the cattle industry and the beef, that these prices just simply aren’t sustainable, that at some point U.S. consumers are going to have to make that choice. They’re going to have to
make the choice to pay more for gasoline and less for beef. And we haven’t really seen it yet. I’ve been anticipating, I’ve been looking for it, for this change to less expensive proteins, but we just aren’t seeing those signs yet. So it’s been resilient, but I still think it’s coming,” he says.

Grains See Profit Taking with Lower Energy, Crop Progress: Cattle Recover

Tue, 05 May 2026 16:06:31 GMT

Grains were lower early Tuesday, with livestock higher.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets were all lower to start Tuesday seeing some routine profit taking after hitting new highs for the move and even some new contract highs in parts of the corn and soybean complex, according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading.

He says the markets were also watching the energy sector which was seeing some lower prices.

“I think every day when you wake up, you got to ask yourself, where’s crude at? Where’s energy markets? And that’s the first place to go to look to maybe set the tone for where these markets are going to be at across your grain. So, yeah, that’s the first place to look. Dec new crop corn made a new high overnight. But yeah, pulling off and testing that $5 level on new crop corn are attractive levels for producers,” he says.

So, there may also be some farmer selling. “Yeah those round numbers stick in producers mind for sales targets,” he says.

Dec $5 Corn, Now Where?
He says now that Dec corn has closed above $5 there may be more upside to the market, especially as funds continue to buy.

“I look at managed money positions quite often and funds have been on the right side of the grain market since the first of March. You know, the end of February when those March options came off the books, funds were net short 13,000 corn contracts. And now as of last Tuesday,
264,000 long. And there’s estimates that they’re closer to 300,000 net long currently. So you’ve got to respect that number. That’s well off the record high for their net long position in corn. So there’s room for them to add to that length,” he adds.

Still he says to respect where the funds are at and prepare for a pull back on long liquidation.

Money Flow, Crude Oil Supports Grains
Still, he says the money flow has been favoring grains and the market should be supported on inflationary concerns as long as crude oil prices stay elevated.

“Yeah, it goes back to where are the energy markets? What are they doing? You got crude above $100 in this area. That’s going to support the market. Rising prices at the pump, they make ethanol more competitive compared to gasoline. But on the flip side, Michelle, too, we got to think about gasoline. That’s the main delivery mechanism for getting ethanol and driving ethanol consumption. So if you have higher prices at the pump, is that going to curb usage? And then that kind of goes back to inflation too. Is that going to squeeze consumers’ pocketbooks and actually cause less ethanol usage?

He says many people are looking for a reduction in ethanol usage in the May WASDE and the next few reports.

Fast Planting Pace
The fast planting pace is also weighing on corn and soybeans as U.S. corn seeding pace was at 38% Monday with the five year average at 34%. Soybean planting at 33% was 10% ahead of average.

He says, “No significant problems getting the crop in you look at corn planting pace above the five -year average pace is you know just screaming we’re getting beans in the ground and they’re ahead of normal. That’s good until the rains I guess don’t come but that doesn’t look to be a problem right now.”

That early planting is also taking production risk out of the market he adds.

“So, each day we plug along in this production cycle you know we’re getting the crop in the ground then it’s early vegetative growth and then as we enter reproductive growth putting seeds on the plants and and production the more we know about a market the more certainty we get on the supply side the less risk there out is out there and the market becomes less concerned about a production problem,” he adds.

The market is also watching the dry conditions in the Brazil and if that will trim production on the second crop corn.

Soybean Market Also Makes New Highs
Soybeans made new highs for the move on Monday so the market is seeing profit taking and some farmer selling pressure especially with fast planting.

However, Huck says the market will be well supported going into the China meeting next week and with the May WASDE on Tuesday.

“So next week could be a really dynamic week and who knows what to expect out of that. So we will get the WASDE, we will get the first look at the new crop balance sheets for both corn, beans, and wheat,” he says.

China Meeting in Focus
Plus, the volatility of the China Summit with President Trump and President Xi meeting on May 14 and 15 will be in focus.

“We’ll see what comes out of there. My biggest concern about that meeting and what’s changed over the last month is that Iran and the conflict there will take more precedence over a bigger, larger ag trade deal. It may take the air out of the room a little bit as they focus on other things,” he says.

The concern could also be if the soybean market has already price it in then there may be a “buy the rumor sell the fact reaction” which could produce a selloff.

“You have these headlines the anticipation of an event and like you said there you can buy the rumor and sell the fact and where will this market go so a lot of a lot of pieces of the puzzle ahead,” he says.

Marketing Strategy?
Huck says seasonals are in the farmers favor right now and so they need to watch the market to take advantage of opportunities to price.

“Producers should keep an eye on these grain prices and where they’re at and be opportunistic don’t rule out where things can go but uh respect where they’re at today and where we’ve come from,” he adds.

Wheat Market Falls on Conditions, Rains
Wheat futures are trading nearly 35 cents off of the 2-year highs scored in soft red and hard red winter wheat contracts just a week and a half ago.

The crop condition rating on Monday was up 1% to 31% good to excellent and there are forecasts for rain in the next few days. In fact there was already some rain falling on Tuesday morning in some areas of Colorado and Nebraska.

“Wheat’s been on a tear this year. You know, one of the best performing commodities. I think July KC wheat is, you know, traded almost a $2 trading range since the first of the year. It rallied from $5.35 up to $7.18. We’ve pulled back off of that. We’re about 35 cents off the highs on the July KC wheat contract,” he says.

Crop conditions are bleak the further west you travel into Eastern Colorado and the extreme Western Kansas the panhandle.

However, says, “The wheat crop looks tough but in my travels here I’ve seen you know seen some ground over the last couple weeks traveling around. I’ve actually kind of been impressed with pleasantly surprised with some of what the wheat looks like. So wheat’s a very resilient crop. We often joke that it, you know, needs nine lives to kill it. And I don’t know what life we’re on. Some of it has spent all of them, but I wouldn’t underestimate. I think there’s more potential out there than than maybe what we thought a couple of weeks ago. And yeah, we’ll see. A rain, I think. still help some things.”

He was surprised though with the slight improvement in crop conditions on Monday.

“We really saw kind of a separation where some of that, the fair either went up into good and excellent, or it drifted back into the poor, very poor. So there’s definitely have and have-nots out there in wheat country, and it’s a resilient crop. It’s used up a lot of its lives. Don’t count it out,” he adds.

Wheat Marketing Opportunity
Huck says there are some opportunities to market wheat right now.

“It’s a really difficult crop to market to, Michelle. Are we going to raise 60 bushel wheat or are we going to raise 10 bushel wheat? So options make a good tool to be using there to protect these prices. And if you’re not doing something on 26 or you feel like you can’t, maybe look out there at 27 and see what you can do out there on 27 crop,” he explains.

Kansas Wheat Tour
The Wheat Quality Council tour is headed for Kansas May 11-14 and Huck expects a mixed bag regarding what they find in the field.

“I think you’re going to see some extreme photos of browned out wheat with no heads and just big bare spots. I think you’re going to see some thin wheat. I think you’re going to see some frost freeze damage wheat. You’re going to get a basket of a little bit of everything. But I think there’s going to be some pockets out there where the wheat looks better than expected. And maybe an average, below average type of crop would be my anticipation. It’ll be interesting to see when we get the boots on the ground. And some of that freeze damage is out there, too, because that’s one of the most difficult things to look at, especially from the 70-mile-an-hour drive-by look that I often get at wheat,” he states.

The key to production may be the abandonment of acres and he says that may not show up yet in the May WASDE.

“Typically the USDA takes a scaled approach to making those adjustments, but you never know what to expect when it comes to printing a number on paper,” he says.

Cattle Market Trying to Recover
The cattle market was higher early on Tuesday trying to recover from the key reversals scored on Friday.

The market made record highs that day in both live and feeder cattle futures and then ended lower and continued to sell off Monday.

So can the market make a full recovery?

Huck says, “The cattle market’s strong and we’re up here, you know, very near record levels, just off those record levels, looking at feeders, looking at fats, you know, May feeders posted contract highs Friday, $378.27, closed yesterday, $366.60. You know, we have a $12 off the high just yesterday,”

However, he points out May’s beef month and grilling season is just ahead.

“There’s a lot of fundamental supportive factors for the beef market going forward. But one of the biggest questions in my mind is the health of the consumer. That’s to me is what’s going to drive demand and drive this market going forward. If they show resiliency to continue buying beef because they like the way it tastes, they like the health consciousness of it. It’s a nutrient dense protein that brings lots of stuff, lots of good stuff to consumers. If they’ve got an appetite for beef, I would not guess how long this good market can last,” he adds.

Cattle Market Resilient
The cattle market has also been resilient in the face of bearish headlines. While it did trade bearish in reaction to the announced DOJ probe of meat packers it doesn’t take long for the fundamentals to came back into focus.

“There’s a lot of headlines out there that get slung around and you never know when the trade’s going to trade them and when they’re going to completely ignore them,” he says.

Cash is King
Still with record cash last week that will support the market and the strong cash trade moving foward.

This week the cash market may be more quiet after a week of big gains and last week’s early trade.

“Wholesale beef prices there’s just some natural ebb and flow as to what the packer needs to do to manage the inventory manage their margin and then you’ll manage the supply on the feed yard side so lots of ebb and flow in this market the fundamentals haven’t really changed but
you never know when they’re gonna they are going to change,” he says.

Cash Feeders Strong
The cash feeder market has not cooled off which should also support the feeder cattle futures.

“Right. Yeah, we’re the index is moving around quite a bit. A couple of weeks ago, we saw a pullback on it with some headlines. You kind of got to watch energy markets in the macro markets as well whenever you’re looking at cattle. And we see some pullbacks, some sell offs, ten dollar sell offs. But cash data last week was pretty strong and bouncing back. Watch that cash, not just the the index average change each day, but the daily data that goes into the feeder cattle index each. each day that also provides some clues as to where things are going,” he adds.

Cattle Fall After Reversal, Is the Top In? Corn Above $5, Beans to New Highs

Mon, 04 May 2026 22:24:03 GMT

Grains end mostly higher Monday, with cattle and hogs lower.

Have Cattle Topped?
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day on follow through selling. Both made record highs on Friday and then closed lower on big volume scoring key reversals.

So is the top in the cattle market?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this market but it fits the profile of a technical top.

“Some 45 years ago I learned a reversal has to be from a terminal area, which is just a fancy way of saying an important area. And I don’t know what’s more important than the all time high. So, we did that on Friday. It has to be done on big volume. It was 86,000. It should be accompanied by an increase in open interest, and it was. And then the third thing is that it should have followed through the following day,” he explains.

However, he says the market ended well off the lows because at one time feeder cattle were over $7 lower and the June live cattle closed almost $3.50 off its lows.

“While it was still lower, it was a long ways from where it was,” he says.

Cattle Hold Critical Support
So the market held the support it needed to on the charts because according to Kooima June live cattle stayed above the 50-day and the
20-day moving averages, which has been kind of significant to keep an eye on.

“August feeders got a little whippy. We got all the way down to 62% retracement, then held that. So I’d say we did good enough holding what I think was technically important,” he adds.

Cash Trade Topped?
Several fundamental factors may have also caused the sell off including this week’s cash expectations.

Last week the cash market hit record high levels with Southern deals mostly $244 to $256, up $9 to $10. The North was $255 to $258 live and mostly $400 dressed, up $14.

The average steer price was reported by USDA at a new record high of $255.02, up $8.84. So it will be hard to see an encore.

“I mean, the market was basically $246 last week, Wednesday, I think. I know I passed $248 on Friday then, but if you compare like $246 and then getting cattle as high as $258 last week. You find me a week where that happened before. There was a couple of weeks in 2014 that were like that, but maybe not quite that much,” he says.

Kooima adds that it is interesting the packers came out already so aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday, to try to buy cattle.

“And dovetail that with the fact that a month ago or so, there was plenty of these basis deals made by some of the major packers where they were willing to pay five or six over where the Junes were for the first two weeks of May. At that time, that was the equivalent of like $252 on cash cattle. At the same time, the cash market was probably $5 to $7 less than that. Well, a lot of guys did that because that looked pretty attractive, right? Turns out it’s cheap now compared to what the packer paid last week,” he explains.

So the packer was trying to get enough inventory so they didn’t have to work so hard to secure as many numbers this week theorizes Kooima.

“So you’re going to have a standoffish week on cash, maybe. Let’s call it steady due to lack of trade, perhaps, just because I don’t think we’ve
got very small show lists up here in the North, very small. So we don’t have much for sale, but you might have a packer that might not need to buy much,” he says.

Kill Cuts
That because the packers are trying to cut kills this week to prop up their margins.

“I’m not going to say names, but there’s plenty of them that are going four days this week. And one’s down today. A couple of them are down Friday. So the packer is trying to do whatever is necessary to not have to chase the market anymore,” he adds.

That was already a pressuring feature for the market on Friday.

High Gas, Stock Market Sell Off
Also working against the cattle market was the surging gas prices and the sharply lower stock market.

At some point that becomes negative for consumer demand. “One has the worry that, you know, and the inflation or the stress on the budget that’s created by that. And let’s be honest. I mean, boxed beef is no runaway with this tight kill. And it is less than a week now till Mother’s Day. We’re already past that. Usually two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day. That’s kind of your signal for let’s begin the middle meat rally. So hopefully it
still develops. But I think. There was some of that going on today,” he says.

So that created some technical selling especially with the funds nearly record long.

DOJ Probe
Adding to the bearish attitude was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterating the goal of the Trump administration to get beef prices down.

Part of that strategy includes a Department of Justice investigation of the beef packing industry.

He says, “I’m not sure that Secretary Rollins commentary this morning was helpful to the market either, bringing up the concept of investigating the big four. You know, probably if you’re an algorithm trader and you’re trading, you might think, you know what, I don’t think I want to be participating in this kind of uncertainty.”

DOJ has probed the packing industry in the past only to walk away empty handed but it spooked the funds.

“There’s things that have happened historically that deserve some looking into including the Holcomb fire. I was very vocal through that period about how we killed more cattle after the fire than before it but they couldn’t see anything wrong then. You know, I mean, we had 85 cent cattle and $450 boxes. So, you know, so what are they going to find now?”

Hogs Down Again
Lean hog futures were down again on Monday with continued fund liquidation and technical selling.

Kooima says the market got spooked about the pseudorabies case in Iowa on Thursday and Friday.

He was hopeful with the positive comments Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig made about the problem being contained that the market would stablize.

“He outlined how everything got tested. These were five boars from Texas and an isolated incident. We’ve got protocol in place and we haven’t had a case since 2004. I was hoping that maybe cooler heads would prevail,” he adds.

Kooima says the cash news is pretty friendly but the market can’t find support and the charts look terrible.

“The inability to source pigs because of the disease problems is real. What these pigs cost, close to $100 on an isowean, $150 on a 40-pounder, would tell you just how tight the supply is. So, you know, I have a tendency to be a little bit of a supply-side bull here with nothing to show for it.”

Soybeans Break to Fresh Highs
Soybeans ended 16 to 21 cents higher on Monday and made new highs for the move in both old and new crop contracts.

The market was following bean oil which made more new contract and multi-year highs once again chasing higher crude oil.

The market was also building in optimism ramping up into the trade summit next week in China.

“The hope that we get something tangible with this China visit. I would caution everybody be a little careful as this is China. They’re a bit disingenuous and not the most reliable trade partner but that is out there,” he states.

The crude oil/bean oil story is also a drive as he says with higher energy prices there is the fear of inflation.

“I think is reflecting in some of our commodity prices here, too, most notably some of the stuff that is relatively cheap, like the grains are,” he adds.

How High Will Soybeans Rally?
With the chart breakout will July soybeans be able to take out the March high of $12.50 3/4 and will November soybeans get above $12?

Kooima says both of those moves are in the cards. “Based on the chart pattern here and the fact we have broke out of the range we have been in for six or seven weeks. When you break out of those consolidation patterns that it’s like coiling a spring. I always think the tighter it’s wound then the bigger reaction you get. So, this thing actually projects through that old $12.50 area on the July beans which is a big deal. On both the
weekly chart and on the daily chart it actually opens up the path here for a move to $12.70 or even maybe even closer to $13 on the old crop.”

That could put November in the $12.40 to $12.50 price range where he would suggest some marketing.

Corn Makes Fresh Highs, Dec Closes Above $5
Corn also made fresh highs for the move in sympathy with soybeans and on fund buying.

Funds bought over 80,000 contracts and could add to that Kooima says.

“You don’t have to be a genius to look at $4.85 to $4.87 on the July corn to know how important that is. Let’s see if we can take that out. December corn, you know, that’s new highs for the move. Nice looking chart pattern. We are kind of overbought here. I don’t know if we need to rest just a little bit. But, you know, incrementally, I was starting to look at some new crop sales here. And then the next level at around $5.20. And then the next one around $5.45. I’m more inclined to sell into the corn rally.”

He says the market is also watching weather, lower acreage and fertilizer concerns plus whether or not China buys corn at the summit.

Soybeans, Corn Make Fresh Highs on Demand, China Hopes: Cattle Spiral

Mon, 04 May 2026 15:53:39 GMT

Soybeans and corn were higher early Monday, wheat started lower then bounced. Cattle and hogs were lower.

July Soybeans Break Out
Soybean futures had made some fresh highs for the move early Monday with July trying to break out of its sideways trading range.

John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says it is a function of record crush and hopes for China business ramping up to the mid-May meeting between the two countries, which trade teams are still preparing for despite the ongoing Iran conflict.

“You got the technical breakout. So we’re seeing some money flow triggering that. You still got this really good demand on the crush side here domestically in that regard. So I think that’s supportive of the market as well. But then obviously, too until that meeting happens on the 14th to 15th and this market might be building some anticipation that China could step into the market, either old crop, new crop, pick up some beans in that regard. So I think that’s some of what’s happening here,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Pace
Crush margins continue to be strong with the recent contract highs in bean oil and surging global demand regarding biofuels but he says soybean meal is keeping pace.

“You’re looking at some of these crush margins at their best levels in history, or at least in modern history in terms of support for that crush industry,” he says.

USDA’s crush report for March pegged soybean crush at 227.4 million bushels which was below expectations, but it was still a record.

“I’m hearing some different talk about some regional tightness. So, I guess the question now is where the beans are. Are they hanging on to
them? What’s left? What’s it going to take to get them out? So watching the basis levels and what’s happening regionally with these crushers is going to be a big part of this market here in the short term. And I’ve said it before, if margins are good, crushers will pay whatever they want to per bushel of beans, just as long as they’ve got the crush margin taken care of and profitability coming,” he says.

Import South American Soybeans?
At what point though will processors start buying cheaper South American soybeans?

Heinberg says, “I think we’re actually pretty close to that point. And that’s the next thing I’m kind of waiting for is that headline. You know, you’re looking at Brazilian beans, maybe $1, $1.30 bushel underneath the United States right now on the export markets. And the biggest problems in South America, obviously, is the monster crop that Brazil had. The Chinese demand has not been there and so there there’s processors or elevators sitting on piles of beans right now and they’re getting to a window here where they may just have to put those
beans on the market just to get some cash flow moving it could be a very interesting situation for some of those Brazil elevators down there if the beans don’t start getting moving because they were counting on that Chinese demand to pick up those beans. When China picking up those U.S. beans late in the winter, first part of the year, I think it’s really kind of curbed into that expectation from those Brazilian elevators down there.”

November Soybeans Make Fresh Highs
November soybeans also made new highs for the move on Friday and again Monday morning.

Can November get above $12? Heinberg says that is the next target and may be pushed by China if they buy the 25 MMT the president has suggested.

Heinberg says, “Maybe China does not pick up old crop beans, but they go ahead and forget they talk about buying 25 MMT of soybeans for the next year. So, maybe they start looking into that window here as well. I think that’s something that continues to support the market.”

The cold wet weather may be causing some planting delays as well which may give beans that little bit of a push.

Corn Follows Soybeans, Capped by Wheat
Corn futures made new highs for the move overnight but were slightly lower early Monday with the pullback in wheat capping the rally as well as some farmer selling he says.

“We’ve seen a lot of really good money flow into the core market. In fact, we picked up, what, 80,000 contracts almost as of Tuesday last week,
and obviously it didn’t stop on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday,” he says.

However, the market was supported by the rally in soybeans.

$5 December Corn
December corn broke above $5 on Friday very briefly as farmer selling stepped in and is back above that level on Monday.

“I think people that missed the first chance at it are now jumping on the second chance. So I think that’s part of it. Historically, $5 corn is a pretty good point to definitely get some things going,” he says.

While producers have sold some corn at $5, he thinks a close above that level could open the door to $5.20 to $5.25.

The corn market is also watching planting pace and if any acres get shifted away from corn but the market will get its first indication of 2026-27 supply and demand in the May WASDE.

The market is also awaiting the March 13 vote on E15 in Congress and the corn market continues to be supported by high gas and crude oil prices.

Lastly, the Brazilian second corn crop has been under stress and bears watching, despite some forecasts for rain coming up.

China Buying Corn?
And just like soybeans the corn market is watching and waiting for the mid-May meeting in China with hopes for corn business.

Market chatter indicates China has been looking for some U.S. corn and that may be another reason why the funds may have been aggressive buyers recently.

Or Heinberg says China could be looking at buying ethanol, which would also be a boost for corn.

Wheat Topping?
The wheat market is seeing some pressure on Monday with rains in the forecast for some of the hard red winter wheat areas.

He thinks the market may have topped out in the short term, even though the funds have added to their length in wheat.

“The funds are record-long spring wheat right now because of the dryness in the Northern Plains. And we’ll have to see how those things all kind of play out. But at least wheat market may be finding a bit of a ceiling here. And if that happens, that’ll keep the market a little bit limited, even though the demand continues to be very good,” he says.

The Kansas Wheat Tour is coming up the week of May 11 but the market has priced much of that production loss in already he adds.

Money Flow Into Grains
The risk of the war with Iran and high energy prices and inflation concerns have all brought money into the grains and that could keep prices supported going forward says Heinberg.

“Crude oil over $100 I think it keeps some general support overall in the marketplace at this time frame. You know, maybe that’s some of the rally we’ve had too, is just the fact that corn needed to catch up to where crude is. You know, obviously there’s headline risk like we’ve seen
today, you know, possible hit on U.S. naval vessels. 15 minutes later, it was, you know, the U.S. said that did not happen. But in that time window, corn flashed to the highs of the day. Crude oil was up over $105 a barrel. You know, so that volatility continues to stay headline to
headline,” he says.

Cattle Futures Seeing Topping Action?
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower early Monday. Both markets hit record highs on Friday before staging reversals and possibly doing some chart damage. However, is this topping action?

Heinberg says the market may need a pullback, but a top is too early to call because fundamentally little has changed as far as supplies.

“The numbers just aren’t out there even look at the feeder market trading $4 under the index today,” he says.

He says the market has also been led by last week’s record cash and that is still king.

Packers bought a good amount of cattle last week so cash could be on the quiet side this week.

“But, you know, we are getting into that window where grilling demand is going to kick in here,” he adds.

Lean Hogs Close to Bottoming?
Lean hog futures have been down the last three sessions seemingly in response to the first cases of pseudorabies since 2004.

While it isn’t a food safety concern and there are vaccines for the disease the uncertainty seemed to weigh on futures plus there was some technical selling triggered.

Heinberg thinks the market is close to support levels.

“If you draw a line underneath the low going back to November, we’re right at that area. Actually, we traded under it a little bit on Friday and
recovered. Today, we back-tested that line again. So we’ll see this $100, $101 window on June. It does look like it’s at least a level that maybe this market can hold, but not really seeing any great strength in it today. Some of it is money flow. The funds are down to, as of Tuesday, 57,000
long contracts on hogs. That’s a pretty big chop considering where we were a few months ago in that regard. Hopefully it’s an area can find some support. Maybe it’s disease concerns just causing that, you know, again, the computers like to trade headlines and that might be the headline they’re pushing now with the pseudorabies issues. But at the same time, it’s starting to look a little bit like we’re undervalued here in these summer hogs, but we need some turn somewhere to get a little bit of a bid underneath this market.

Grains Disappoint, See Profit Taking Off Highs Despite China Rumors: Cattle Hold Support

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 21:46:03 GMT

The soy complex was lower on Wednesday as well as wheat with fractional gains in corn. Live cattle ended lower, with feeder cattle and hogs mixed.

Soybeans and Bean Oil End Off Highs
Soybeans ended 10 3/4 lower on July at $11.79 1/2 with November down 10 1/2 at $11.56.

Soybeans made new highs for the move and November came within a 1/4 cent of the March highs overnight on talk of China looking for soybeans of the Pacific Northwest.

The market looked like it was ready to breakout but Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says soybeans hit chart resistance and saw profit taking.

“Profit taking was part of it. We have to keep in mind, too, as we go into the end of the month here, you’re also going to have some option expiration and first notice day against those May contracts. So any traction we get here in the short term could get faded. So far, that seems to be playing out.”

However, the deliver period is slow with producers in the field and he says once they’re done there will be some steady sales again in June.

Soy Processing Demand Hold up Soybeans
The board crush margins for soybeans are over $3.30 so they are huge and also helped drive the recent strength.

He says, “These processors probably went out there and locked all those margins in early. And so the only trade left is their out trade. The producer is pretty well out of beans. I think that’s part of this, you know, just contentment in the bean market that we’ve seen for the past month.”

China Buying Beans?
The rumors of China buying helped provide early support.

While there was no confirmation of the business Hudson says he wouldn’t rule it out before the mid-May meeting.

“I certainly think they could. I think it’s going to come down to quantities and timing. I would have confidence that you’re going to see that get pulled through. I would still favor that a lot of that, if it comes to us in a positive way, is still going to end up landing on the new crop balance sheet. But we have to remember back in February, they bought beans when it really wasn’t that advantageous for them to.”

He adds that if China has made some deals to help end the Iran war soybeans could be added to the mix, especially as inflationary pressures are continuing to build with high energy prices.

“That would be an eye opener for the trade because we’re about 100 million ahead on our crush demand. And if you have to bring our exports up to on this old crop, you know, how do you reconcile that on the balance sheet?”

Multi-Year Highs in Bean Oil
Soybean oil also hit multi-year and new contract highs before ending lower on the day. Is that reversal a concern?

Hudson says, “When you look at yesterday’s bar you know one day doesn’t really define a market and we continue to see a you know a lot of interest in this. I think the processor I think this will translate to a pretty strong bid as you get into harvest because I mentioned them locking in some of these margins in early even off the heels of the Venezuelan situation and then Iran got thrown on top and those margins have only gotten better.”

So he thinks they will be aggressive buyers at harvest through the end of the year.

Corn Also Hits Resistance
Corn was up for a third day on technical buying but ended well off session highs at $4.62 3/4 on the July, up 3/4 and December was a 1/2 higher at $4.82 1/4.

Hudson says that market also hit chart resistance and was pulled down by lower soybeans and profit taking.

“This is just kind of a resistance trade. You got the December back to the $4.85 and every month you go that’s closer to us in time. It seemed like it was just a little bit weaker and that’s evidence that those front end spreads are starting to give a little bit of that and once again we’ve got enough supply to meet the demand. So, as long as you don’t see a weather market I would expect that December to lead the way and maybe even the Dec 27 more prevalently if you don’t have any issues,” he adds.

Dec 27 Corn Adding Input Premium
He thinks Dec 27 corn is putting in some input premium tied to high priced fertilizer and diesel fuel.

“I think you have to. I mean, I think you have to sit here and question not only where our input costs here come harvest, but how do we see global acreage influenced here over the next six to eight months? We didn’t have a lot to lose here in the U.S. because so much was pre-booked. If it’s not getting on, it’s because they don’t want to pay it. But you could have some other places around the world here, be it for wheat or corn, where they simply don’t even have it available. And that inevitably is going to create some sort of a pinch. We just don’t know how much
yet,” he explains.

Old Crop Corn Capped
He says old crop corn prices are just capped because supplies are too big.

“And as soon as we get done with planting here, the farmer is going to be at the ready to continue trucking season again.”

Fund Liquidation
With option expiration on May options on Friday and first notice day coming up on May futures contracts could there be more long liquidation by the funds?

Hudson says, “They’re not holding a huge, huge position in any of these markets. I mean, I think it’s a tenable level in corn and beans. They’re really not holding much of a position at all in wheat. So I don’t see anything to exploit there. I think it’s going to be more about how they move those positions forward from the May to the July. And even coming into this week, we hadn’t seen a big pulling back in the open interest. So I would not be surprised to see a bit of weakness in this May-July spread. But as you go into, you know, after First Notice Day, you know, keep an eye on that spread as we go into delivery because I still think the processor needs corn they’re going to need to keep that flow and they know it’s out there but they need to keep the pace of it too.”

Wheat Prices in Weather Concerns?
The wheat market saw slight losses of 2 to 6 cents in the three classes on light profit taking and some rain chances in the extended forecast. However, are the weather concerns also priced into the market?

He says, “Yes and keep in mind you know we have some wheat to lose here in the us our stocks usage is still well over 40% so there’s still plenty
sitting around. I think this is more about how it evolves moving forward and how you could compound it. For example, if you got a bad stand and we rip that out and plant soybeans instead, that just adds to this building issue in the background.”

Cattle Hold Support
Live cattle futures were lower for a sixth day and saw more technical selling and long liquidation.

However, the market did hold support.

“Thus far, you know, you could still see the June maybe flush down into those mid-230s, but you’re probably gonna have to have a headline to help facilitate that, especially where you have cash trading right now. But with the concerns you have going into grilling season, you might have enough meat on the bone to take that off if there’s reason for it.”

Feeder Cattle Still Awaiting Border Reopening
The feeder cattle futures ended mixed on Wednesday and are trying to stabilize with the border reopening story still in the background.

A new New World Screwworm (NWS) case 60 miles from the Texas/Mexican border should keep the border closed but it is still political.

Hudson says, “It still is in the background, but it seems like the administration has been a lot more slow to make any comments. And maybe that’s due to the influence we saw earlier in the year because of it. You may have to get through this summer and get to some of these colder months before we can really feel good about having snuff that out and and I kind of think you’re going to be dealing with this all the way through that time frame.”

He thinks the situation is creating a new normal South of the border for feeding cattle as well.

Has the Fed Cash Market Topped?
Some light cash cattle trade has occurred at $246 live and $386 dressed but not enough for a test. Still, the lower trend may indicate a cash top is forming he says.

“But I don’t see no reason for it to completely collapse. You know, you could stop the ascent, but, you know, let’s face it, we’re not getting any more animals. You know, any sort of weakness is going to be bought up on the front end again anyway. So I see somewhat limited downside in there still, at least in the interim, especially after the little break that we’ve seen here,” he adds.

He also thinks the futures, at least the nearbys are trying to confirm a top. The jury is out on the deferreds.

“And again, that may mean that some of these back months hold themselves above water and eventually find a bid again. I don’t think that’s necessarily going away, but do we have to continue a lot higher right now? It just doesn’t feel like it. And if you have to turn that market and the energy complex higher again, if we don’t get some sort of a peace deal done or ceasefire done, then it’s going to continue to weigh on things as well,” he says.

Hogs End Mixed But Stabilizing?
Lean hog futures have bounced off the four month lows but is there a fundamental reason for the market to stabilize?

Hudson says, “I think it really comes down to timing. And the hog market actually got a little weaker than I expected testing that $100 mark in the June. I didn’t think we’d have to go down and do that all at once now. But the fact that we did, I think that’s kind of a tradable chart point now that as long as you hold that, I would see that there’s a decent chance of recovery effort back to $105. And then from there, we can maybe see what cattle do into summer.”

Cease Fire But Strait Closed
The markets are getting war fatigue with news the cease fire has been extended with Iran but the Strait is still closed which rallied the crude oil market again Wednesday.

Hudson says the long term impact of the higher energy prices is already starting to surface.

“Yeah. I mean, if you’re a company that has to do any sort of commerce, whether it’s energy or anything else, if you’ve already got a boat out there floating around, you might be committed to figuring out what needs to happen with it. But you’re not sending another one until you have
confirmation and assurance that you can actually do business the way you want to. In the meantime, people are going to try to reroute that, whether it’s fuel, fertilizer, anything that goes into that. A lot of petroleum products that we probably don’t think of in our everyday lives. And you’re seeing about 30% increase in a lot of that stuff. It’s twofold. It’s not only what’s going into the product, but it’s the freight to ship it around the world. And if you think about all those little widgets and every little Amazon box that we have sitting on our front doorstep, to me,
this is just the front end of this thing getting a lot worse here in the next six to eight months.”

So when will the market start trading inflation fears?

He says, “I think as you get into the third, end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth.”

Still it may not help support old crop grain prices and will have limited impact on new crop with trendline yields.

“But the upside is still somewhat limited as long as the USDA is going to have a reason to advertise trend line yields. And I don’t see any changing of that until maybe earliest end of June, but probably more prevalent with the September stocks report. And by then we’ll have an idea of what those yields look like.”

Corn and Soybeans at a Crossroads

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:51:09 GMT

Corn and soybeans were slightly higher early with wheat easing. Cattle lower, milk futures mostly higher.

Corn at a Crossroads
Corn futures were higher Tuesday and early Wednesday with help from the soybean and bean oil markets and with an eye on weather.

However, Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the corn market is at a crossroads at least the new crop contracts.

He says, “If you look at it technically right now, the market had a double top, $498.5 in December corn, a couple bearish key reversals in that same couple week window. Those are negative signs. A crossover sell on stochastics, and the market dropped off. And what happened is December corn retraced 50% of the move when prices bottomed earlier in winter after the January 12th report to where they peaked on March 9th. That was the start of the war. And then they kind of ran out of selling momentum on dry weather concerns in parts of the Midwest and then this last weekend, wet weather concerns.”

He says downward momentum was lost then and prices have edged back higher with help from a rebound in wheat and soybean oil.

However, he says prices are stalling out and need a bullish catalyst to keep rallying.

Lower Acres, Fertilizer Issues?
Demand continues strong but hasn’t resulted in a chart breakout in corn but what about the fertilizer crunch or lower acres due to high prices?

He says, “We can’t put any real numbers on the fertilizer yet. We can make assumptions on what that may or may not mean for acres. Acres will be down 3 million, but with still a million acres more on the March 31st report than the pre-report estimate. So it’s in a holding pattern right now.”

Doherty adds that high fertilizer, lower yields, lower acres, and weather events haven’t seen affected or cut the corn crop for three years worldwide. “So there’s a lot of potential, but I want to highlight that potential is often overrated.”

Corn Stalling Out?
He says Dec corn is trading around $4.84 as we and last year Dec 25 corn put in a high for the calendar year at $4.78 3/4 with a 1.5 billion bu. carryout and this year it is at 2.1 billion which is heavy.

“And then the news this week that I’m getting out of Argentina is a bigger crop. A record crop by a large amount. The USDA attache raised production to 61 MMT, up for 5 MMT. And the Rosario Grain Exchange was at 67 MMT,” he says.

Plus historically, he says the market does have a tendency to work lower into the May and June window unless there’s a weather event.

“So do we have a weather event? Do we have concerns about too dry? I don’t think we can quite play the too wet card, although it’s very impactful to some who aren’t turning a wheel. It’s just I’m running out of bullish bullets. So that’s the crossroads part of it.”

Soybeans Lifted by China Buying Talk and Bean Oil
Soybeans were higher early with the push from new contract and multi-year highs in bean oil and talk of China looking for soybeans off the Pacific Northwest.

Doherty says that could be China trying to buy ahead of the mid-May meeting.

“It’s a goodwill token. It’s putting their foot out there and saying, hey, we’ve got bigger fish to fry than soybeans, let’s buy some beans and let’s
work on those bigger fish, which is energy, which is a lot of things, technology. The beans are the visible component right now.”

Soybeans Also at a Crossroads
Doherty likes the action in soybeans but says the market is also at a crossroads and may have a difficult time getting above chart resistance.

“Soybean oil has been reflective of the whole bioenergy atmosphere that we talked about this years ago that would take time to catch up. We seem to be getting to catch up. At the same time, though, we’re losing export activity. Exports have been slow in recent weeks,” he explains.

November soybeans are up at the March highs at $11.74 1/4 and testing the double top but will need a close above that level to continue to rally.

With a 350 million bu. carryout he doesn’t think bean oil strength alone can do it.

“I mean, bean meal is not a leader. So crushers are making money. So that’s positive and may be supportive. But I’m just concerned with 350 million bushels of projected carryout that’s just too heavy to expect a rally from here without some other type catalyst. Soybean oil has already done its heavy lifting,” he explains.

Wheat Stalls Out Too
Wheat futures were softer on Wednesday as HRW wheat did not take out the March highs on Tuesday.

Doherty says the market has factored in the damage from frost and drought and needs more bullish weather news to drive higher.

“I’m going to say I’m not sure because wheat’s a finicky crop and it’s so moisture dependent in areas. What I think happened this past week is we didn’t get the real hard killing freeze that might have been forecast in some areas that really might have made a difference. Timely rains are still really, really, really beneficial right now to the wheat crop. So I think you’re still in a bit of a weather event there.”

Plus he says the world has ample wheat supplies.

“Keep in mind the WASDE report added 6 million metric tons above expectations on World carry out. So if you’re keeping score, there’s roughly 35 million bushels in a metric ton. So you’ve got an extra couple in round numbers, a couple hundred million bushels added. So it’s tough to get too friendly when you’re seeing that number tick higher,” he adds.

Cattle Take Out Support
Cattle futures were lower early Wednesday on follow through technical selling and took out key support in the June live cattle at the $243 level that held last week. With a close below that, how much lower does the market fall?

“After a big rally, it’s destined for a correction. The key is and has been can demand hold up. So one of the thoughts I have or concern that I have is that the war started March 9th. Gas prices shot higher, and we keep seeing that on the news and the media. And it’s real. Consumers are paying more. Diesel is expensive, right? Who pays for gas with cash, right? So it’s credit cards. You pay for it down the road. Well, now we’re getting down the road. So I think there is something to, if you want to try and draw a direct correlation to higher energy prices, that demand in cattle could be moving out,” he explains.

He also points out a long term double top on the charts at the $250 area and seasonally cattle can top in April after the grilling season demand is secured.

However, he says supplies are going to remain tight.

Still if June closes below support it will see a break to the 100-day moving avreage around $232 on June live cattle

Milk Market Remains Volatile
The milk futures were mostly higher on Wednesday morning but have been volatile according to Doherty, which can create opportunities.

“So we’ve seen three times now where the market all of a sudden kind of makes a spike higher, and then it’s lost at three times. And even here recently, we’re seeing a lot of back and forth, a lot of movement in the marketplace. So providing those opportunities,” he explains.

He says the traditional market movers, cheese and butter have not been the stars recently in the complex.

“The star has been the protein products, the nonfat dry milk, whey products. Things like that have helped to give the market a boost. I don’t know if they alone can, let’s call it, sustain a rally and turn this into a favorable bull market. You’re going to need the other components to come along. And I just don’t know if they’re there right now. We saw a global dairy trade two sessions in a row now losing ground. So some of that world demand seems to be slowing,” he says.

Plus, he doesn’t see any herd reduction for at least the next two or three milk production reports.

It goes back to the beef on dairy market he says.

“For sure. Huge revenue stream. Things have changed. It’s a big change. More they change, more they stay the same. Be vigilant. Look for rally
opportunities. I think the market wants to be bullish. I think traders do. The call option premium out into the fall months is very, I think, higher than usual, which would maybe suggest higher prices. At the same time, good opportunity if you’re a call seller to look at those,” he advises.

Grains Rally Led by Three Year Highs in Bean Oil: Cattle Fall

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 21:43:21 GMT

Grain and hog markets ended higher on Tuesday with cattle lower.

Soybeans and Soybean Oil Lead Rally
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday.

Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says bean oil hit a three-year high and was following crude oil but is still pricing in the positive RVO news.

“That’s been feeding it for quite some time. And then tied along with today’s obvious crude oil move higher, it looks like Trump’s ceasefire probably won’t get extended. So a little bit of that got traded today on the soybean oil side, I would argue,” he says.

Can Soybeans Extend the Rally?
He says new crop November soybeans also had a bit of a chart breakout.

“We were building in a wedge pattern lately and we kind of broke and slingshotted out of that thing today. And I’ve been waiting for that a little while just to see if it was going to be an up or down move. And it looks like that was a pretty good up move there,” he says.

July soybeans ran into chart resistance though around the $11.91 area and will need some bullish news to continue to move higher.

But can November soybeans extend gains?

“The November contract was only $0.04 from a contract high that we’ve had recently at $11.74 today. So right back to those highs. So a little bit of selling pressure there around that level, along with the July hitting up against that key resistance point, Michelle. So we’ll see if it has some
trouble above these levels or not. Or if crude oil continues to move, we keep getting something that can feed this soybean contract. But overall, I never saw anything super substantial for moving soybeans specifically higher today he adds.

Corn Follows Soybeans or Wheat?
Corn futures were higher initially following soybeans and bean oil but in past sessions has seen spillover from higher wheat.

Minor says, “I feel like corn has been playing follow the leader, and it’s been switching back and forth between wheat, specifically with some of their big up days, and then obviously with soybeans being up 10 most of the day today, it wanted to be up a couple cents as well. So it’s tried following those along on the days wheat’s been up and that correlates somewhat when we’ve had crude oil up or our outside market fundamentals moving a little bit.”

He says the spreads have also been rallying.

“And it could just be because of some funds coming in. It could be crude oil moving up. It could be some inflation hedging. It could be a little bit about the old crop balance sheet, just trying to buy a few bushels here up front during planting,” he explains.

Corn Hits Resistance
July corn also closed up into resistance at the $4.62 level and needs an additional bullish catalyst to break higher.

“Some of the cash fundamentals on corn and soybeans in these front months has been pretty important. We’ve been able to rally these spreads, tighten them up, narrow them up a little bit on old crop. And I think that’s just lack of movement across the countryside. I think once we get through planting, we’ll have some more bear pressure on those old crop months specifically.”

He says in the Western Corn Belt, basis has been improving on soybeans as yields were fairly normal.

Planting Ahead of Normal
Planting nationally was 7% ahead of normal on soybeans and 2% ahead of normal on corn planting but the market faded it in part because Iowa is lagging on both corn and soybean planting with wet conditions.

Minor says, “You go with that eastern part of the state in Iowa, kind of Missouri for sure. It looks like the forecast is still super wet. They’ve been wet. They’ve had no real look at the fields at all. Probably eastern Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, that whole stretch. Even eastern Minnesota is pretty wet yet. So when I look at those areas, very, very far behind. But it’s early. We’re sitting at the 21st of April still. My rule of thumb normally is once we get past that WASDE report in May, then we get a pretty good look at it.”

So that will be a key time frame because if the wet forecast continues through May 10 and the 6-10 days beyond that the funds will start to care.

China Meeting
That time frame also coincides with the scheduled meeting between President Xi and Trump on the 14th and 15th.

“So there’s going to be a lot going on right in that time frame in that second or third week of May that could move the market,” he adds.

Wheat Ratings Drop
Wheat futures saw some profit taking early in the day session but came back on weather and still digesting the crop ratings which were down
4% nationally to 30% good to excellent.

The reason it didn’t provide more of a push to the market is because it was largely traded on Monday but those conditions aren’t likely to improve with frost that has now damaged the crop.

“It’s become quite volatile again off multi-year lows, which made sense with the poor crop conditions down South. It’s still struggling. I mean, we’ve got wheat heading out in places a couple weeks early for what it probably should be. So not a great sign. I still think a little bit of rain could help that Southern Plains area for sure. But some spots are just going to be too late as well,” he adds.

Can Wheat Rally Further?
The wheat market has still not taken out the recent highs in SRW or HRW classes and will need a catalyst to get above those levels.

He says the wheat market is also heavily dependent on inflation and hedge funds coming in to buy and how the crop finishes in the Southern Plains.

“I still think it’s a lot of outside market fundamentals. The wheat market can get inflation hedging bought up with the crude oil market, for example. And then just talking about things like today’s U.S. dollar move, things like that will be important as well. But mainly just the weather market that we’ll have in the Southern U.S. going forward,” he explains.

Cattle Market Falls Further
Cattle futures saw early strength erode on technical selling and fund long liquidation.

Minor says this is a healthy correction off of contract and record highs but it has been triggered by fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle.

“I think, because the meeting going on on Friday in Arizona with Brooke Rollins going to visit the border. So that leaves a lot of questions up in the air on what could happen there. And I think that’s kind of at the heart of it. We’ve had a really good rally again, so having some fun liquidation totally makes sense. Little pullback. We tried to fight back higher today, and I thought we were fighting at a pretty good close, and then it kind of had a poor close by the end of it here, technically. So looking at that 20-day just under us as support for a lot of these months.”

However, he isn’t concerned yet because of the strong fundamentals.

“Kill’s been super low lately. Packers have been trying to get margins back to a comfortable level, trying to kill few cattle as they can, get meat propped up pretty well. And it seems to be responding. It’s always worrisome when they pull kill way back and then you don’t see cutout respond. But we’ve seen choice and selects respond a little higher here recently. So I thought that was a good sign, especially going into the right time of the year as well seasonally. We should be seeing that bump anyways,” he says.

What if Support is Breached?
However, if the futures take out 20-day moving average support, he thinks how much lower will you fall?

“Well, we’ve gone up for about five, six straight years now. So we can do some pretty hard technical damage on this chart. This cattle market can take some really, really big swings, I think, off of it if it wanted to or got a good reason.”

t’s just seasonally, we start to talk about it. It’s going to be grilling season, and we all know we like steaks at the beginning of the year, hot dogs at the end. So hopefully, choice response pretty quick here after about the 1st of May. So if we do have some hard down days, I’m hoping that it won’t last much

Hogs Up a Second Day
Lean hog futures were up for a second day on short covering after a gap higher opening in the June contract.

Is this just a dead cat bounce or are there fundamentals to support the move?

Minor says, “Cut out, grinded its way higher to just over $100 again, kind of led by hams and bellies, but nothing sporadic, I thought, to really stand out to me across the board for the most part. So it seems like cash had a solid week of about a buck higher or so, so far, but there’s still
plenty of hogs around, Michelle, I think. When I look at this hog market, fundamentally, we got to be starting to get into some lower hog numbers here soon. This week and next week, still sitting at 2.4 to like 2.8 million number for the kill. And hopefully about the May 1st timeframe, we start to get a little bit lower numbers, prop that cut up a little bit higher. We’ve got the June back in a line with fundamentals, probably up front. We’ve taken most of the premium out, but we’re still a little bit optimistic, even going forward out in those future months, especially.”

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat up on Weather, Planting, China News and Fertilizer?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:13:41 GMT

Grains are mostly higher early Tuesday, with cattle and hogs also recovering.

Soybeans Lead Gains Pulling up Corn
Soybeans are seeing early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn.

Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says, “Obviously, that’s going to support the bean complex overall. And I think it’s supporting corn too.”

Market Fades Planting Progress
Planting progress was at 11% nationally on corn which was 2% ahead of normal and for soybeans 12% of the crop has also been planted which is 7 points ahead of average.

Mason says that is because while some areas of the corn belt are ahead of normal like the Southeast, Iowa is well behind on corn seeding at 2% against a normal of 8%.

“There are some weather challenges throughout the country that are you know keeping progress at bay,” she remarks.

Mason is in Southwestern Indiana where it was dry and so some producers may be done planting this week as they push to get the crop in ahead of another round of rain.

“If you look at Kentucky, they’re planning progress is well ahead. As you go farther South, it’s the same situation, you know, that it’s drier down there and just a lot done.”

She also thinks there will be some replanting and in fact there is a lot of replant going on in Southern Indiana right now.

“They just kind of went in, I think, at the wrong time and with some heavy rains some of the crop didn’t come up well either.”

She says they escaped the cold temperatures over the weekend and the frost that nipped some areas of the corn and wheat belt.

Corn and Soybeans Into Recent Highs
Corn and soybeans are up to recent highs and running into chart resistance but can the market get through those levels?

Mason says, “Old crop corn in particular. It just seems like a bit of a laggard. It needs support from something, whether it be wheat or soybeans. I will say that Dec corn, though, is also kind pausing and we really need to get above that 14, 20 day moving average on the December contract. We’ve got strong support at the 10 day, it seems. And I don’t think the bottom is going to fall out of corn. It feels like maybe we’re kind of just kind of hanging sideways until we get another catalyst.”

Soybeans are also up into chart resistance but still trading sideways.

She says that market is caught between higher bean oil and lower meal on any given day with the back and forth on the war and crude oil which influences bean oil prices.

Old crop soybeans are still waiting for the outcome of the China meeting mid-May.

“The meeting with Xi Jinping in May is going to be, everyone’s got that in laser focus. And, you know, we had news this morning from, well, the South China Morning Post had released a news or headline stating that the U.S. had intercepted a Chinese ship that had a gift to Iran. Now, we don’t know what that gift is, but it probably is not gonna favor the U.S. So, hopefully that doesn’t crimp that meeting that’s that’s scheduled,” she shares.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking Then Rebounds on Low Crop Ratings
Wheat was lower early on profit taking after running into chart resistance at last week’s highs but also trading war headlines and the higher dollar and rains chances in the extended forecast.

However, winter wheat crop conditions were down 4% and the good to excellent rating is at 30% nationally so she believes that market will be well supported on breaks.

Fertilizer Price Concerns
Mason says the concerns regarding fertilizer prices are also growing as margins and working capital is tight, plus even supply is a problem the longer the war lingers.

“I do believe that there were more producers than what we would like to think that didn’t have their nitrogen supplies locked in before the Middle East situation transpired and so I do think that that’s probably pushing some soybean acres and I am even seeing some bean on bean acres in Southern Indiana and into Illinois,” she explains.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says with the war lingering there are many countries that are stockpiling fertilizers or stockpiling commodities in general, so she thinks supplies will remain tight.

“Luckily we produce a lot of anhydrous ammonia domestically but urea we import a lot of urea about 30% from Russia and we get about a fifth of our UAN from Russia. So we really have to walk a tightrope with them as we move forward,” she adds.

Sulfer Supplies are Also a Concern
Mason says sulfur supplies are also a concern as it is a byproduct of natural gas processing and oil refining.

“Obviously there are a lot of refiners and natural gas processing plants that are offline given this situation in the Middle East and 90% of the world’s supplies are a product of that. We were actually tight on sulfur supplies in 2025 just because sulfur is used as a battery material. So,
the demand was there and there was, there were no new supplies coming online.”

However, she says supplies are even tighter now.

“That’s really going to throw a wrench into phosphates, right? Your DAP, your MAP, production. and so it does concern me,” she adds.

Plus there are exports bans on in Russia and Turkey and China has a ban on sulfuric acid with India considering a ban.

“So you’ve got all of these countries that are saying, whoa, hold the phone. Let’s pause and keep our supplies in-house before we send them out to the world and put ourselves in a real pickle.”

Cattle Try to Recover After Monday Selloff
Cattle futures are higher early Tuesday after a sell off to start the week.

The market has been spooked by the possibility of the border reopening to Mexican cattle as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will be in Arizona on Friday. Plus, the talk of another Justice Department investigation of the meat packing industry, while not new, was also a bearish factor.

Mason thinks the pullback is just a technical correction.

“My gut tells me that once you reach record highs, a pullback is healthy but there’s probably a segment of traders out there that are really concerned about maybe a partial reopening of the Mexico U.S. border but we’re not going to be flooded with feeders right away just because Mexico has been building their infrastructure,” she says.

Wheat Rallies on Weather, Corn and Soybeans Fall on Profit Taking

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 22:04:39 GMT

Ag markets ended mostly lower on Thursday except for wheat and bean oil.

KC Wheat Makes Fresh Highs
Wheat futures rallied on Thursday adding weather premium with expanding drought and a mostly dry forecast for the Western third of the Plains says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing.

“On Monday’s weekly crop progress ratings, we saw the good to excellent category for wheat decline yet another notch. And it just really shows
how poor things are with some producers even starting to talk about abandonment of those acres. And so when you add that onto the fact that, you know, we are seeing in the United States the lowest planted acres of wheat in decades, it really makes it tricky for us to know for sure,
like going forward, you know, what are we going to have for supply here in the United States?”

She says there is also talk about the world fertilizer crunch and key production areas not being able to get fertilizer or prices being too high because of the conflict in the Middle East.

Can Wheat Continue to Rally?
Hard red winter wheat contracts took out the March highs and made new highs for the move but is there enough ammunition fundamentally to keep the rally going?

Blohm says, “I would say in the short term, meaning like going into Friday, it might be questionable because we could see some profit taking. But over the weekend, if the Plains still don’t receive rain or if things continue to flare up in the Middle East, that could be supportive for trade next week to justify that market to move higher. Because when you look even at the weather forecast over the next two weeks, there’s not much rain relief in sight for the Western Plains and Southern Plains. And so unless the forecast changes, the wheat market should be supported for the short term.”

Markets Trade Like War is Over
At the same time most of the grain market is trading like the war is over.

Blohm says there just hasn’t been any fresh bullish news. “There hasn’t been enough new dramatic headlines to shake crude oil out of the trading range and the trading range of course is large so for crude oil we’re looking at major overhead resistance at $120 a barrel but big support is at $80 and so as long as there’s just moderate back and forth talking, the crude oil market just doesn’t have a reason to necessarily trade out of that range one way or the other right now.”

However, if there is any headline over the weekend the market could move higher and pull the grain market with it.

Corn Can’t Follow Wheat
Corn tried to follow wheat early in the day but gave up gains to close lower and putting in a disappointing finish.

Blohm says the market ran into chart resistance and saw profit taking.

“Definitely. That’s exactly what happened. So without enough fresh, friendly news on its own merit, what we saw was the. corn futures contracts test short-term overhead resistance in the form of some different moving averages and then just didn’t have a reason to get through it so a little bit of a price pullback it wouldn’t surprise me if corn futures prices trade in a very cautious sideways trading pattern for maybe another week because we still have plenty of things to be watching in terms of weather and in terms of the Middle East.”

Otherwise, she says corn futures don’t have a reason to stage a big rally or a reason to break.

In fact, when prices fell she says the market did spur some demand.

“We saw some decent flash sales for exports. So it does show that countries are paying attention, that when our prices just get a little bit cheaper. We’re seeing exports pick up. We had amazing weekly ethanol numbers this week, higher than expectations. So the demand is there and that’s going to keep the market supported. But we’re just in the short term lull for news. Again, one eye on weather, one eye on war.”

Too Early for Weather Concerns
She says although there has been talk of planting delays it is too early for the market to get real concerned until late April.

“I know that there’s a lot of producers who over the past couple of years have been used to getting planting a little bit early. So they’re getting
a little bit anxious about it. And the weather conditions around the Midwest are just all over the place. Some places are able to get planted because it’s been so dry. Portions of Iowa just getting about a quarter inch of rain every other day and it’s humid. So it’s keeping things on the wetter side there. They haven’t had the ability to dry out. Wisconsin, we have flooding in west of Green Bay. So that’s become an issue and it’s just been kind of hit or miss. So I think for the market, it’s really going to take until the end of April before we start getting a little bit nervous,” she explains.

Soybeans Also Hit Resistance
Soybeans were also higher early in the session in tandem with wheat but couldn’t close higher on Thursday running up into chart resistance just like corn and saw profit taking.

Blohm says soybeans were supported Wednesday by the positive commentary from President Trump on his social media that he will be meeting with President Xi of China in a few weeks here. So that gave the market a supportive tone yesterday. But then when the export sales came out this morning, just not a lot of fresh news there. So we have strong domestic demand from the crush. And that information was out yesterday, which was supportive. But again, not enough fresh news this morning. to justify a further rally. So just a little bit of profit taking and got to keep those day traders happy.”

Soybeans Sideways Until China Meeting
Soybeans have been sideways on a combination of strong crush and hopes for more China business and so that could continue for a while.

“So for about the past three or four weeks, old crop beans, new crop beans, if you look at a daily chart, it feels like every other day, there’s either a signal that technically would suggest, hey, maybe the prices are going to go higher, either bullish key reversal or outside bullish reversal,
but then just give it a couple days and the technical indicators turn a little bit negative to where there’s a bearish reversal or a bearish hook reversal. And we’ve seen that price scenario about four or five times now. So what it tells us is that the market is really teetering on every
single piece of news that’s out there in terms of crush demand, in terms of watching export demand, keeping an eye on the weather in South America and harvest progress down there, keeping an eye on the weather in the United States, trying to understand where the acres are actually going to be,” she explains.

She says the longer the market trades sideways the more explosive a breakout could be.

“We’re poised to see either a 50 cent move higher or lower, depending ultimately on where the fundamentals lie. If the fundamentals lean friendly, we are going to definitely go back up and test those March highs on the old crop. But if fundamentals start to lean negative, then we could very easily slip about 50 cents lower in the short term. So really pay attention to these markets.”

That makes getting some of the 8 MMT of old crop soybean sales made to China or the market could fall apart.

Soybean Acres Rising?
USDA raised acreage 3.5 million in the March report but there is also talk of even more soybean acres due to the problems getting fertilizer for the corn crop and due to the high prices.

“It’s really hard to quantify because people aren’t really in the fields yet to know for sure. So wanting to keep an eye on the situation, wanting to talk to see dealers to see if there’s been any switching, it is something that could really be a shocker. in a few weeks as the planters get rolling.
And then of course, we’ll know for sure better what the June 30th report has to say for the planted acres. But it would really affect the balance sheets if the soybeans gain more acres than what we’re expecting,” she adds.

Cattle Consolidate on Profit Taking?
Cattle markets were lower for a second day on profit taking off of contract highs but also some nervousness about the border reopening to Mexican cattle imports.

“Then we saw a little bit of technical selling once prices went below the five-day and the 10-day moving average. And then news-wise today, Secretary Rollins is going to be in Texas on Friday, and she’s going to be speaking around 11 o’clock Central Time. So we’re going to try to get some more information on that border. Is it going to stay closed? Is there any... of it opening. And then, of course, on Friday afternoon at two o’clock is the cattle and feed report. So plenty of things for this cattle market to be watching for. Still the conversation, too, of higher crude oil prices and with higher energy prices, are families able to spend more money at the grocery store or not because they have to spend
higher. prices at the pump. So that conversation is all tucked in there. So I’d say it’s a little bit cautious right now. The market is supported fundamentally, yet at the same time, it’s wondering how much friendly news is actually there to justify one more leg higher or not.”

Grains Try to Extend Gains Led by Wheat on Drought Concerns: Cattle Further Correct

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 16:16:13 GMT

Grains higher, livestock lower early Thursday.

Grains Higher Led by Wheat on Drought Concerns
Grains are higher early Thursday led by wheat.

DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says funds are buying and covering short positions due to expanded drought in hard red winter wheat country on Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor and the lower crop conditions.

“Yeah, it is definitely all about the weather. Supply and demand-wise, you don’t have a great story in wheat, but you keep watching it. It’s a hard red winter wheat you know story is what it is. There’s this wall of rain that happens on the Eastern side of the Southern Plains and on the West
where a lot of the production has been very dry and the market’s starting to realize like wow, this isn’t just a air quotes talk story anymore. Like there’s really some production losses happening. A lot of fields will go unharvested. So now the market’s job is trying to figure out how low that production is going to be. And boy, that’s a hard job for the market to figure out.”

However Kansas City or HRW wheat is sharply higher and getting close to contract highs try to make that calculation he says.

March Highs Important in Wheat
Technically the wheat market needs to take out the March highs to keep the rally going according to Bosse.

“Yeah, that would sure be nice. Otherwise, it just looks like another failed attempt at those highs. And when I look at Chicago and Minneapolis, especially Minneapolis, let me talk about that. I’m in spring wheat area up here. I feel like, guys, we don’t have a shortage of supply. Now, we are expected to have less acres this year, but rally to $6.90 for new crop Minneapolis wheat feels like an area we need to be hedging.”

Spring wheat is concerned about not getting acres planted with the uncooperative weather forecast for the Northern Plains and historically low planting intentions.

Corn Following Wheat?
Corn was strong on its own yesterday but started off lower on Thursday morning and then bounced.

Exports were at 55.2 mb by were no runaway, so is the market following the rally in wheat?

Bosse says, “I think the funds are back in buying the corn market, and I’m excited about that. After kind of a month of a downward trend in corn and me being kind of annoyed because I’m a little friendly to the market, thinking that there’s a fertilizer story, there’s less acre story, there’s bullish stories that should rally this market. There was a war going on, Michelle, that actually rallied the energies, and corn really, to me, never did participate in that, really, the way it should have. So I’m excited to see the funds finally step back in. It’s hard to know when and why they do their things, but the last two days, I’m just talking, just watching the trade action. It just felt like they were coming back in that market.”

Corn Losing Acres?
So is corn losing acres due to higher fertilizer prices and availability? Or even weather?

Bosse says that is an evolving story. “There’s a story out there, and I think that story will probably get pretty loud here that fertilizer availabilities price will probably lose some acres. And I think that’s what we trade in the short term. But I think longer term, I think those acres do get planted.”

However that is because he thinks USDA was too low on the total principal crop acres on the March 31st planting intentions report.

“I think there could be three or four million acres out there as long as prevent plant doesn’t get bad this year. So honestly, come June 30th, I’m maybe on an island saying this, but I wouldn’t be shocked if corn acres are up a little bit. But that’s down the road. That’s June 30th. Here in the short term, I think we’re going to get a story about, you know, our farmers going to plant that much corn or not.”

Soybeans Extend Gains
Soybeans opened lower on Thursday with a marking year low export figure of only 9.1 million bu. but then bounced back.

Soybeans have been trading sideways but rallied Wednesday on optimism about an end to the Iran war and optimism about the mid-May meeting in China after President Trump posted a positive note on Truth Social.

“I think yesterday the rally we had was really all about Trump’s post about how when he meets President Xi out of China next month, he’s going to give him a big fat hug because he’s so happy with us right now. We’ve opened the Strait of Hormuz. Soybeans often just took off then. Because I think they think, well, if China’s happy with us, then maybe they’ll buy those old crop bushels that we’ve been promised or talked about for so long. So I think that’s what they traded yesterday.”

Crush Margins Near Record
The other supportive factor is that crush margins are near $3 a bushel so processors are making money allowing them to bid up for soybeans especially as farmers are busy in the fields.

“I think soybean oil, I figured that probably made a high when crude oil made a high, right? I think that market will come down. But it’s been really impressive. And something I’ve been concerned about is now we’re going to have the oil demand for soybean oil but what do we do with
all the extra meal well the answer is we have to export it.”

That demand for the products is helping hold up soybeans.

Technically Soybeans Negate Reversal
Technically the November soybeans have negated the reversal on Monday but old crop soybeans have not.

He explains, “November beans continue to look strong and they should you know a little bit of weather premium are we going to get all the crop planted you know we do that this time of year but no July is actually quite a ways from negating that key reversal. I think that reversal if that holds this week it’s going to look kind of ugly for old crop.”

Market Acts Like War is Over
President Trump says the Iran war is nearly over and there are plans for a second round of peace talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually underway.

Outside markets are already acting like the war is over says Bosse.

“I think he went in there thinking this was going to be a three- or four-day war and found out it’s not. And when it comes to people, like the regime, the old regime that’s in Iran, like you never really win. They will fight till the bitter end. And I think Trump wants out because I think
he didn’t like seeing the stock market go lower and he didn’t like high fuel prices. And bang, that didn’t take long. And the stock market made new highs yesterday. So I think for the most part, it’s over.”

However, he thinks it will take a while to normalize the markets.

“Do I think crude oil is going back to $55? Absolutely not. I think we found good support just about $85 yesterday. I think we have high fuel prices all summer and that might put some pressure on some of our other markets like livestock here too. Well, just because you open the
Strait of Hormuz, you don’t get oil production back up to normal levels here for a while.”

So fuel and fertilizer prices could stay higher for longer due to the damage from the Iran war.

Cattle Correct
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower seeing continued profit taking off the new contract highs scored on Tuesday.

Some of the selloff was positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Additionally there were some stories posted on social media that could have triggered the selloff, including a Mexican official saying the border was going to reopen. That was followed by a USDA post that said that story was false.

“There was a screw worm casev close to the border and it is funny how when Mexico gets a screw worm case it’s it’s bullish for us but as it gets closer to the border I think more people are getting nervous this is eventually going to cross the border and we’re going to have a problem. There was also some talk of getting that border reopened but as you and I have talked when they do open it, it’s not going to be a floodgate. They’re going to open it from west to east and it’ll be Arizona first. It won’t be this flood of cattle. But I think hearing some people from Mexico say that that border is going to be opening soon, maybe had a negative turn on the feeder cattle market and maybe the live cattle today.”

However, he says the market is also overbought.

Higher Cash Leads the Market Back Higher
The correction may be healthy and to be expected going into a report but if cash trade is higher again this week the market could shoot back up into contract highs he says.

“Last week was kind of interesting. The higher cash cattle trade popped the market, obviously. Future’s kind of anticipating it. But we didn’t have a lot of trade. Packers’ profit margins have gone deep in the red. And I know everyone out there goes, I don’t care if packers are losing money. Oh, you do. I mean, the more money they make, at least they try to pass it on a little bit, or at least they’re more willing to buy the cattle. This week, I don’t know if they have much of a choice. I think the inventory is really short. Everyone’s kind of talked about this production hole
we have, right? The yearlings have been fed out and killed, and we don’t quite have that new crop of calves coming in yet. So they might just have to pay up this week. But I am watching boxed beef closely, Michelle. I feel like that price, you know, about $20 off the highs, does need to get back up there to help packers keep hiring the cash price.”

New Lows on Hogs
Lean hogs are also lower with cattle and making new lows for the move again, the 8th straight day down.

The market took out some key support but will it find some stability soon?

“I’ve seen cash and cutouts starting to come back a little bit, Michelle. So I feel like we should find support here. Not to mention this cattle hog spread is just historically wide. I would think there’d be some old school spreaders that would want to jump back in on this and demand will
be good for pork this summer too. But I think it is interesting to point out that in the rest of the world, you know, we’re actually fairly high priced in pork here. So there’s just a lot of production in the world right now. So we don’t have to go higher, but I do think with our cash
market going higher, we should find support soon.”

Corn, Soybeans Higher Wednesday as War and China Concerns Ease: Is Corn Bottoming?

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:21 GMT

Corn and soybeans are higher early Wednesday with wheat lower. Cattle and hogs started lower then turned mixed.

Soybeans Back Higher on China Hopes
Soybeans are seeing a bounce on Wednesday morning. The market corrected the last two sessions on fear that the Iran war developments would jeopardize the mid-May meeting with China.

Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says, “President Trump was out on Truth Social this morning saying that China was happy with everything, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that they wouldn’t be sending weapons to Iran. And so I think everything’s kind of trending in the direction from a market perspective attitude, at least that maybe a peace deal is on the near term horizon. So we shall see. But as some of those geopolitical issues start to ease a little bit, we get more of a fundamental focus.”

He thinks the NOPA crush report Wednesday morning will be key with the market expecting a record crush figure.

“And so you know, that would be a positive on the demand side. We’ll see how it shakes up compared to the pre-report expectations. But a little bit more of a fundamental focus, I think, moving forward.”

China Premium in the Soybean Market
The soybean market has held together due to the idea China will be making soybean purchases as part of the mid-May meeting says Grete.

“China does carry a lot of weight, obviously, in the soybean market and everybody’s anxious to see if President Trump can negotiate a deal for China to buy more soybeans, whether it be more for 2025-26 or additional promises and pledges for 2026-27. But I think that one of the things that if this meeting happens in mid-May is that we aren’t going to see just soybeans be the center point we will see other feed grains like corn, wheat, sorghum maybe ethanol and biofuels and things like that be part of that deal,” he adds.

How Much of the 8 MMT Does China Buy?
The big question is how much of the 8 MMT of old crop soybean business the President has talked about are part of the deal and what is already priced into the market?

Grete says, “Yeah, I don’t think a lot is built in, to be honest with you. While you can argue that soybean prices are probably over inflated at
current values, I don’t think that’s really tied to that extra 8 million tons. And what’s the possibility out of that? Well, maybe half of that total. I don’t know. I’m just throwing numbers out there, to be honest. No one really knows.”

Soybeans Rangebound
From a chart perspective soybeans are still sideways says Grete.

“They’ve gone nowhere, to be honest with you, for about a month now. So just chop around in a relatively tight range, too. We saw way more volatility ahead of that. And the volatility has decreased and the price range has turned choppy.”

Corn Extends Gains
Corn futures are higher early Wednesday getting some help from soybeans and strong demand according to Grete.

He says record exports and flash sales to unknown and Mexico on Tuesday are supportive.

“And that just continues. We’re seeing no slowdown there. So that is a real story. Ethanol use has been OK. It hasn’t been spectacular. And so there’s some talk that maybe USDA will have to cut the corn for ethanol usage number a little bit. But I’m not real concerned on that front.”

The market is also concerned about lower acreage.

“Were the March Prospective Plantings numbers the highest that we’ll see for the season? In all likelihood, that is the case but we’ll see how
much we drift down from there. That will be a focal point as we move through the remainder of April and then into the May time frame,” he adds.

Corn Acres Falling
So how much are corn acres falling due to the whole fertilizer supply crunch and higher prices since the Iran war?

Grete thinks acres will be a little bit below where USDA was with the March perspective plantings.

“Regionally, I think there is some potential for some big shifts, to be honest with you. In the central Corn Belt, probably not a whole lot of movement.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation came out with its survey, and it said that the pre-booked fertilizer was the highest within the central Corn Belt area.

“So you’re probably not going to see a whole lot of movement there. You get down into the South and there was less than 20% pre-book coverage. And so those crops that are most at risk are peanuts, cotton, some of those that are specific to the South are probably the crops most at risk. We’ll see what happens with corn and soybean acres in those areas. I think that if you’re going to see any kind of big movement from the March intentions for corn and soybeans, it’s probably going to come from the fringe area. So I will include that up into the Plains, the Northern Plains, down through the south and southeast is the areas where we could see the biggest shift.”

Too Early To Trade Planting Delays
He says it is too early to be trading planting delays due to the heavy rains that have fallen in some areas of the Corn Belt.

“It’s mid-April, let’s be honest. If it was a month from now, then the concern would be much greater.”

He says the concern is coming from farmers that got off to such a fast start last year.

“So they feel like they’re behind and they are behind that but from a national perspective we’re right about where we need to be on corn and we’re well ahead on soybeans,” he remarks.

Corn Divorced From Crude Oil
The corn market has also divorced from the crude oil market and geopolitical headlines and is trading its own fundamentals.

“Right now, we’ve removed all the war premium from corn. We’re back to those pre-war levels.”

Corn Bottoming?
Corn had a 30 cent plus correction off the war highs on March 9 but held support on Tuesday so Grete thinks the market is trying to bottom.

“No doubt about that. You know, we saw the spike low last Friday. We’ve had some basing action since that point in time. And I really like the price action. Now, I don’t think that corn is going to go on a big move to the upside. But, you know from a downside risk perspective, I think the last Friday’s low is key near-term support that probably will be defended by bulls.”

Wheat Market Eases
After a big rally on Tuesday the wheat market was slightly lower on Wednesday.

Grete says the market has enough weather premium for the time being and needs some more bullish news to push that market higher.

“The global supply is plentiful at this point in time we’re oversupplied. The real story in wheat is that the SRW crop is doing well, the white winter wheat crop is doing well, the HRW crop is struggling. And are HRW concerns are they enough to pull higher when we have an oversupplied global market and the other two winter wheats are doing relatively well right now,” he explains.

As a result he doesn’t see a lot more upside to prices and technically the market has not taken out the March highs either.

Cattle Just Off Contract Highs
Cattle futures opened lower on Wednesday after new contract highs the prior session and even some all-time highs in live cattle.

Some light profit taking is understandable with the overbought condition of the market but are the fundamentals strong enough to support a sustained rally?

“I don’t know,” he says, “We’re in kind of rarefied air. We make new all-time highs on a near daily basis in live cattle futures. They’re trading at a premium to last week’s average cash. And so we need the cash market to come along. Boy, you get up in here and you got to have a new reason to be a buyer on a daily basis. And so far, we’ve seen that to a semi-limited degree. I don’t think that the traders will build too much premium into futures over the cash, but we do need the cash to keep performing.”

The wholesale beef prices had also seen select trading premium to choice and while that got corrected yesterday it is something to watch.

The market is also going into a Cattle on Feed Report and so there could be some consolidation going into that report even though the expectations are bullish.

“If the numbers aren’t as bullish as what the pre-report expectations are, you could see a little bit of additional profit taking. But really, it comes down to what’s the cash market doing? Because as long as the cash market continues to strengthen, then you’ll see some support in the futures, I believe.”

Hogs Bounce off New Lows
Lean hog futures opened lower for a sixth day and made new lows for the move before bouncing.

Grete says April hogs expire at noon and so the selloff may have been because the futures were too premium to the cash index.

“As May takes over lead month status, we’ve seen premium trimmed to under $4 to the cash index. Sometimes it’s nothing more than the expiration of the current front month contract that leads to a change in buyer interest. And so maybe we do see some buyers come back after that happens. We shall see on that front. But really, the cash index needs to start putting in some stronger gains, I think, to rebuild buyer
interest in the futures.”

Ag Markets Impacted by Money Flow, Crude Oil and Weather on Tuesday

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 23:30:27 GMT

Wheat ended higher Tuesday, with soybeans lower and corn mixed. Cattle made record highs, hogs new lows for the move.

Ag Markets Impacted by Money Flow
Grains and livestock markets were mixed on Tuesday with influence coming from the unwinding of positions in crude oil and the rallying stock market with the U.S. back talking to Iran to work out a deal.

According to Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading money flow the last two sessions in the outside markets had a huge impact on ag markets.

“Looking at where stocks in the S&P were on Sunday night. I came into work early, got off the couch from watching the Masters. I said, these markets are going to rock. Crude oil had a big gap higher open on the Trump administration saying we didn’t get a deal done.”

From there he says fast forward to Tuesday.

“The stock market closed higher yesterday. It had a big run up Friday. It closed up higher yesterday and it exploded higher today. The United States stock market is just a few percent from all-time highs in some of the markets. The Dow Jones is 3% to 4% away from all-time highs and the S&P is just 1% to 1.5% from all time highs.”

Wheat Leads the Rally Adding Weather Premium
Wheat futures rallied on Tuesday and were the price leader in the grain sector adding weather premium but also seeing some short covering by the funds.

“The wheat market, impressive on the charts, starting to really pique people’s interest as wheat closed on the dead high tick in Kansas City.
Impressive market, both from the charts and what’s happening. All eyes on weather when it comes to wheat, Michelle.”

Corn Follows Wheat
Corn tried to follow the wheat higher but was held back by lower soybeans and crude oil.

Grisafi says, “Crude oil at one point traded down $8. If you’re trading corn, you’re saying corn, third of it’s ethanol. Looking over at the crude oil market, looking over at the stock market, stock market exploding higher. And you say, yeah, maybe things are getting better over in Iran. So look at all the markets that ramped up. There’s a massive unwinding of whatever was affected by crude oil going up is now being affected by it going down.”

Funds Liquidate More in Corn?
If the crude oil market continues to cool will it trigger additional fund long liquidation in the corn market?

Grisafi says there is risk of that in both corn and soybeans.

“And especially keep an eye on soybean oil as the funds had gotten really long soybean oil. So keep an eye on soybean oil, soybeans, corn. Watch what those funds do.”

How Low Could Corn Prices Fall?
Funds extended their long position to over 200,000 contracts over the course of five to six weeks but as of last Tuesday had sold over 45,000 contracts week over week.

So, if they continue to liquidate those positions how far could corn prices fall?

Grisafi doesn’t think the market can fall that much farther though because demand has been so strong.

“If corn was to break 20, 25 cents in the new crop, if $4.70 corn turned into $4.50 we would see foreign buying interest.”

Soybeans Fall on Record Brazil Soybean Crop
Soybeans have been down the last two days on fund selling and profit taking but it has been triggered by several factors.

One is Conab’s record Brazilian soybean estimate, says Grisafi, pegged at 179.15 MMT, up 1.3 MMT from last month.

“That didn’t help. You know, a bull market needs to be fed every day. And those numbers were showing that they have a good crop down there. Typically, they’re a big hedger in March. And, you know, their harvest, right? The boats are loading. Talk of quality issues, some rain down there. But nonetheless, they grew a crop, right? And the balance sheet isn’t super tight,” he adds.

Soybean Oil Correcting
Second is the correction in the soybean oil market in tandem with crude oil futures cooling.

He says, “The funds were 110% long in soybean oil as their percent of normal. So, as you see an unwinding of the soybean oil/soybean meal spreads I believe that the meal leg is what’s really kept us up here the last few weeks. If meal was the rollover and crude oil was keep coming down and you watch what’s happening in soybean oil, you’d see the funds take off an incredible amount of length.”

China Meeting Jeopardized
The third is the fear of the mid-May meeting with China being delayed or canceled.

The soybean market has been holding premium due to the hopes for soybean purchases but the recent developments with Iran have put that meeting in jeopardy, especially as China has been providing weapons to Iran and President Trump has threatened tariffs.

Grisafi is hopeful the meeting will happen and he says soybeans have had a decent rally but China may buy other crops.

“So, if you’re putting all your eggs in one basket that Trump and Xi are going to meet and that China’s going to commit to buying a bunch more commodities, I had a chance to talk to Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. And he said, everyone focuses on soybeans but we have other great crops we want to talk to China about including corn and wheat, sugar and other products like rice, pulse crops and edible beans. He mentioned a whole bunch of things.”

He says China could agree to buy other products and that may be why wheat and other commodities are doing better.

Cattle Make Contract Highs
Live and feeder cattle futures exploded into new contract highs on Tuesday.

Grisafi says the combination of record high cash trade and the surge in the stock market has helped propel cattle higher.

“Again, we may also open up China to keep an eye on that. We don’t have cattle coming in from Mexico, so we’ve pretty much written off those cattle that used to come over. We watch the weather and we watch other things and we’re producing a lot of beef. The numbers aren’t there, but the tonnage is, right? And we got through the strike. That strike ended, I believe, a few days ago. Demand is good.”

More Upside in Cattle?
Grisafi says he is concerned that the market can’t hold at these levels forever as the market has been in a six year bull run off the COVID lows.

“If you’re out there and you’re raising cattle, I definitely would suggest setting some floors, buying some LRP. We’re one true social post away from being $20 lower in live cattle and $30, $40 lower in feeders,” he adds.

Grain Market Up Tuesday: Is it Trading Its Own Fundamentals and Are Fertilizer Prices a 2026 Story?

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:59:37 GMT

Grains were higher early Tuesday with cattle making new highs and hogs lower.

Grains Pop Tuesday
Grain markets were seeing strength across the complex early Tuesday.

Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain thinks the markets have transitioned over to trading more of their own fundamentals as the lower crude oil market on talks restarting with Iran isn’t having much of an impact on the action.

In fact he thinks the market has been trading its own fundamentals this entire time.

“When you have oil up nearly 80% from before the war to its highest point in the middle of it, and corn was up less than 10%, I don’t think that corn was remotely following the crude oil. I think those are two separate things. Iran isn’t a producer of corn. It’s going to be a consumer of it.
You have a situation here where the market has kind of just continued to trade its own own issues and not been as worried about the war headlines as maybe one could have thought it might,” he explains.

Wheat Leading on Weather Concerns
He says the hard red winter wheat market is leading the charge on weather and crop concerns.

USDA reported 34% of the winter wheat was in good to excellent condition down 1% and compares to 47% a year ago.

States like Texas are showing only 15% of the crop is rated good to excellent with 54% poor to very poor. In Oklahoma only 10% of the crop is good to excellent, down 2% from last week and Kansas is at 32%, down 6%.

Scheve says that is supporting the market. “Today we’re seeing the hard red wheat, which is going to be that western Texas to Nebraska market. It’s trading significantly higher while the eastern Chicago wheat isn’t moving up as much. And I think that’s a function of just how dry it is out West and concerned that maybe they’re going to miss some rain. And the question becomes, does that wheat crop actually get some rain here in a couple of weeks or not?”

He says if it doesn’t rain wheat could get pulled out of the feed ration which might help the corn a bit.

Corn Following Wheat
However, if the wheat crop continues to deteriorate how much more weather premium does the market need to add and will that market pull up corn?

Scheve says, “Oh, I think it’s going to take a lot more from wheat to get corn to move. There’s just too much corn in the U.S. and we still are running into an issue that the USDA has created in that.”

He’s referring to the 6.2 billion bu. feed and residual estimate USDA is using in the balance sheets.

“They have the feed number on cattle so significantly high that how on earth are we going to meet those numbers? I mean, when animals on feed are down 10% or cattle on feed were down 10% year over year, cutouts, I think, were up slightly, but are not down as much as they were from the year before. How do we increase feed demand when the chickens and the pigs are pretty much steady. None of those numbers make any sense,” he says.

So he thinks eventually that number is going to come down in future reports to show us that we have too much corn left in the country.

“I think that’s just going to keep a lid on corn prices moving forward. Because even if we do see the futures go up, I think you’ll see basis struggle to go up. If anything, it’ll start to drift back if we see a 20 cent rally in futures.”

Highs in the Corn Market?
So the highs in the corn market hit on March 9, will those be the high water mark for a while?

He says, “I would struggle to say that they’re for the high for the year on the December. I think that the chances of that happening, based on the last 35 years of history, say that that’s only a 25% chance that the highs have been put in. It has happened once or twice in March but those are low odds. The odds favor that it’ll happen later on.”

Old crop is more unlikely to hit a new high he says, without some major change in fundamentals.

“I mean we’re two weeks away from the May contract being unimportant so really the last contract to worry about is July. July gets all the way into June. I think that you could potentially still take out those highs but it’s going to depend upon probably the world events it’s probably going to depend upon weather. You know, it’s hard to say that those highs aren’t in, but it’s probably the flip of a coin.”

Corn to See Open Planting Window
U.S. corn planting progress is at 5%, compared to 4% on average.

While the forecast shows rain chances are higher in the Central and Eastern Midwest it is too early to be concerned about any planting delays.

“If you have 70% of the crop in by May 15th that gives you an incredibly high chance of trend line or higher yields. And so we have some time to get that in. The average farmer can get the corn planted in about seven days and so many farmers anymore now are starting to move towards
having even two planters so that they can plant beans and corn at the same time. So it isn’t a big concern to me yet. I think there will be an open window and I think you’ll see corn get in the ground pretty quickly.”

Fertilizer a Late 2026 Story
Some in the trade have made the case that higher fertilizer prices and the inability to get the last of the fertilizer supplies in place could mean lower corn acres yet this spring.

However, Scheve thinks the fertilizer issue is more of a story for late in 2026 into 2027, yet he thinks corn acres will still fall this spring to 93 million just on the economics.

“There was too much fertilizer not purchased in Ohio and specifically in the Southern states and I think that you’re going to see farmers looking at $4.75 December corn, which is not profitable even with low price fertilizer before the war. It certainly isn’t profitable now. The average farmer in the country needs a $5.25 futures level. Doesn’t matter if you’re in North Dakota or if you’re in Ohio or Mississippi, you need that $5.25 level to break even and then subtract or add your basis onto those values to get that. I just don’t see why someone’s going to plant corn when they can look at $11.50 beans and say, you know what? I don’t lose any money planting beans at those values. I don’t make much, but I don’t want to
put corn in the ground with a chance at a 50 cent a bushel loss,” he explains.

He says if the U.S. hits trend line yields on corn than carryout will not shrink, especially as the feed estimates are too high.

Soybeans Hold Awaiting China Meeting
Soybeans corrected Monday on concerns about the developments with the Iran war jeopardizing the mid-May meeting in China.

Scheve says right now China hopes are the main reason the market has been so sideways.

“If there’s a chance that that meeting is gonna be canceled and there’s any talk that Trump doesn’t wanna fly over, I think that you’re gonna see the beans down 10 to 20 cents that day. As long as they aren’t talking about it and not talking about canceling that meeting I think the beans should stay relatively range bound between that $11.60 and $11.80 value on the nearby and that’ll probably keep a new crop right around that $11.50 level as well.”

Soybean Meal Supports
The soybean meal market is also higher on Tuesday which is supporting the rally in soybeans on meal/oil spread unwinding.

Scheve thinks that relationship between the products will hold until the mid-May meeting as well.

Break Evens Tight Around the World
Scheve says he is concerned that U.S. farmers can’t sustainably grow crops below the cost of we can’t sustain growing crops below the cost of production year after year.

“I mean one or two maybe but we just can’t do this three years in a row and it isn’t just the U.S. farmer who is having a problem it’s the rest of the world who’s having a problem as well and this fertilizer problem is going to create a real headache for the South American farmer because
their fertilizer prices are going to skyrocket. And so that should help us in the very long term. I’m not certain that it’ll help us in the old crop, but I like its chances for helping us with this new crop that we’re going to raise.”

Global Diesel and Fertilizer Shortages
He is also watching the impact of diesel fuel shortages around the world, including Australia and how it could hurt their ability to plant or harvest the wheat crop.

“That could be beneficial to wheat. I think there’s a lot of unanswered questions, and I think that the market is going to be focused on this for the time being. And even if the war does end tomorrow, next week, or even next month, that there’s so much damage in the Persian Gulf area that it’s going to take years to rebuild. I don’t think that this is a quick fix, even if the war is over. I don’t think that solves our fertilizer issue for quite some time.”

Australia also gets nearly 60% of its fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, so that is also an issue that will impact acreage.

Scheve says in Vietnam rice is not getting moved because there is not diesel to move barges up and down the rivers.

“And this becomes a question of what’s going to happen around the world as people don’t get food. I mean, most people aren’t going to eat our corn, but it is going to be processed into a protein of some sort or our soybeans go into a protein of some sort. But rice and wheat that starts to create some issues I think that that could be beneficial to our Southern farmers here in the U.S. because they can at least cover both of those crops and that might help feed the rest of the world if this fertilizer and fuel thing becomes a long-term problem,” he adds.

Soybeans Surge with Meal, Corn Falls: Cattle Make New Highs

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 20:35:10 GMT

Soybeans, meal and cattle ended higher Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Soybeans Follow Surge in Meal
Soybeans were higher on Friday following a surge in the soybean meal market with end of week unwinding of short meal/long oil spreads.

Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says bean oil has been the leader trying to follow crude oil higher but now that trade is reversing.

“I think we kind of stalled out on the oil the end of the week, and the soybean meal found some strength and I think part of it is the
unknowns,” he says.

The tug of war between the product values has soybeans trading range bound he adds.

China Hopes
The soybean market was also higher for the week and seems to be holding a premium on ideas of China sales in the meeting in mid-May between President Trump and President Xi.

The Wall Street Journal reported that China is expected to make some big soybean purchase announcements at that summit, but Roose thinks they will be new crop, not old crop buys.

“China’s pretty well bloated with soybeans already. They’ve been an aggressive buyer of soybeans from from Brazil. And, you know, it’s getting into the time frame where Brazil soybeans are pretty well getting dialed into the market. The U.S. soybeans, you know, if we pick up some new business, it’s probably going to be for next year. Or they’re going to buy soybeans for this year and then remember, they can always cancel them. So it may be one of those flashes. Either way, I doubt if the meeting is going to have anything that you can really say is overly positive,” he adds.

Corn Falls on Big Supplies, Removing Risk Premium
The corn market was lower Friday and for the week as Roose says the market has quit trading with crude oil and energy values and started to focus in its own fundamentals.

“You know, weather looked like it’s starting to improve a little bit for planting progress. Some of the dry areas are getting some moisture.”

He says the WASDE also confirmed a 2.127 billion bu. carryout.

“That really told us that we have adequate excess supplies, you know, and the world ending stocks going up. So I think that was a bit of a negative. Then you see some of these reports out of the Argentina exchange that a real big discrepancy on how big the corn crop is. So I think it’s just the weight of the supplies.”

The quarterly stocks also confirmed producers are holding over 5 billion bushels of corn, 60% of the ending stocks.

“And we know. that those are an anchor on rallies that producer was selling pretty aggressively. So I think the pipeline just got resupplied going into spring,” he adds.

Corn Hits Chart Resistance, Funds Liquidate
Technically the corn market also ran into signficant chart resistance and with funds long he thinks they are starting to liquidate.

“I think they’ve seen enough with the weather and how the trade is reacting to the crude oil. You’re oversold. To get some kind of retracement here, Michelle, would not be a big surprise. If you don’t catch a weather issue here sooner rather than later, my guess is retracements are going to end up with the funds getting out of their long,” he explains.

Roose adds if weather problems don’t surface by the middle of May to the middle of June, he thinks the funds will go to a short position. “Maybe a pretty big short position just like they did last year.”

Wheat Removes Risk Premium
Wheat futures also were lower Friday and for the week on technical selling but also removing risk premium tied to war, weather and big supplies.

“There’s competition around the world. Some place is harvesting wheat all the time. I think we’re looking at the dry area getting smaller in the U.S. I think there’s no real weather problems around the world. And I think we have a lot of these other countries with wheat that’s cheaper than us,” he says.

The Eastern part of the hard red winter wheat belt saw improved moisture this week as well.

Cattle Make New Highs
Cattle futures saw more new highs for the move on Friday in the feeders and new contract highs in some of the live cattle contracts.

Roose says it came on the heels of higher cash trade with some $250 live sale prices paid in the North.

How much more upside is left in the market especially getting into the best demand time of the year?

He says, " Well, I think if you look at the cash cattle market, I think you have to say we’re getting that seasonal push to the upside. You know, grilling season kicks in right during this time frame. We usually put some premiums in. The packer chases the boxed beef higher.”

However, he says boxed beef is struggling around $380 on the Choice. “So I think what you have to be careful of is if we’re fully dialed in on the fundamentals on the bull side of the market. Funds are sitting long, and you have to be careful if anything goes wrong.”

Weights are also record large according to Roose.

“We’re putting on about enough tons to equal about 20,000 head of cattle a week. Plus, when does the consumer demand slow down? It has been quite remarkable that he’s been holding in on buying beef, but he’s been buying beef at the expense of the packer, which is partly why the demand’s still strong.”

Feeders Holding Back on Border Fears
Feeder cattle futures have not taken out the all-time highs like live cattle. So it that fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle?

Roose says that may be one of the things holding the market back.

“If we don’t open the border sooner rather than later, eventually Mexico builds more packing plants. So I think we have to be careful we don’t send a signal, the wrong signal too long. So my guess is that we’re going to try and work gradually to slow walk the opening, but we’re going to get it done. And that’s going to add some pressure to the feeder cattle. That may be one of the reasons that even though corn market fell sharply, feeder cattle couldn’t make new highs while the fat cattle are making new highs. So I think it’s a concern,” he explains.

However, many called the top last October and the market is back trading at those levels again.

Lean Hogs Lower
Lean hog futures were lower again Friday and for the week. Roose says the futures got too premium to the cash index.

“Yeah, I think that’s the big thing, Michelle. I think the cash market down around $90, the futures market substantially higher than that. Usually we get a seasonal dip right here after Easter before we start to get a little bit of seasonal support middle of May. Then we have that run into the summer months. So I think it’s more just the futures just got too high,” he says.

Plus, globally China is struggling with big hog numbers and low prices at around $60 a hundred weight, and they’re still liquidating the herd.

So even though exports have been very strong, that may be fully dialed in.

Cattle Test Contract Highs on Strong Cash, Fade Border Talk: How High Will Prices Go?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:21:17 GMT

Cattle and soybeans are higher early Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Cattle Test Contract Highs
Cattle futures were strong out of the gate Friday with many of the live cattle futures once again making contract highs and other contracts are testing those chart areas.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.

“Cattle have been very strong. They’ve been overbought for a significant amount of time. And yeah, bumping on some of these contract highs. Some months are breaking through. And when some of the front months were making contract highs, the deferreds were kind of left in the dust, and now here in the last few days, more confidence in the back just continues to push higher. The resilience of this market is just very impressive.”

He says the market has shook off plenty of negative news including the Iran war, possible Mexican border reopening, closure of the Lexington, Neb. plant and the JBS plant strike at Greeley, CO.

When Will the Cattle High Hit?
Varilek says the market is getting hard to protect as many producers and market participants are waiting to see if the market is topping.

“I think there’s a lot of open inventory out there, guys that don’t have cattle hedged. And we’re just waiting. So whenever there is that official rollover, don’t know when it is. Everybody would love to know. And everybody says, call me if you think that is going to happen. That list is a thousand people long. So I don’t know that I’m going to get everybody called when that hits,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash Push
The futures have been pushed by the cash market which was up $9.26 last week on the 5-area weighted average.

“The way that it rallied was very impressive. It wasn’t just a few regionals out in front. We’ve got a couple of majors out there leading this cash market and for a couple of weeks in a row here now, coming in and grabbing entire show lists and the right kind of strength behind cash markets. So that helps a lot,” And he explains it provides the avenue to clean up the show lists and pull down the weights.

Producers have regained leverage but will it continue to push cash higher this week?

“Going into this week I think the thoughts were we’re gonna ask $252 but if the bids start coming out at $250 give me a call and there might be a little bit of interest there so I think anything $250 or higher, we’re feeling good. And it’s going to have to take that. I don’t feel like we’re going to move cattle less than that, especially with the strength that we’ve seen on the board here.”

Feeders Regain Leadership?
The feeder cattle cash index is back going higher and so will cash strength help pull the futures into new highs?

Varilek says, “These feeders have been the leaders for the last couple of years during this rally. And I think recently there was a small window here where a few of the cattle buyers were telling me, hey, I think there’s some soft. trade happening here and it’s easing up just a little
bit maybe not as strong that’s about all you had to say it must have encouraged the rest of the buyers to show up and we’re you know back off to the races got another you know projecting the index up another $2.40 here today and giving us that confidence.”

Plus, as planting ramps up there will be fewer cattle and buyers at the sale barns.

Mexican Border Reopening Soon?
The other headwind is continued talk the Mexican border might slowly start to open to cattle imports in a few weeks.

However, so far it hasn’t spooked the cattle market.

“Well, I think there was probably a few guys sitting on their hands waiting for more details there and now here we sit with kind of the same information, not a lot. So they might have to reenter and jump back in and get some inventory. I like what I’m seeing. To get to contract highs,
it’s not out of reach here,” he adds.

When the border does reopen it will be staggered and start in the far west ports but Varilek anticipates an announcement soon.

“You know, maybe it’s a staggered open here in a couple of weeks. And it’s like, OK, I just haven’t heard anything new yet on that story. I think that it is and I think that they probably will. I think we have a lot of measures in place to help prevent this. It is screwworm. It’s not hoof and mouth disease. It’s a little bit of a different cookie here, something that we should be able to try to manage. I don’t think it’s as big of a disaster as what some of the news is,” he states.

Plus, he says Mexico has learned how to deal with those cattle and are running those plants 24-7.

“They don’t have the regulations that we do here. They can ship us a lot of beef, just import us the beef, and they’ve got a self -sustaining industry down there. We can ship them corn. We’ve got a lot of cheap corn here. So that’s what I see.”

Hogs Correcting
Lean hogs saw a pop at the beginning of the week on news of FMD in China but have corrected since than and the action has been disappointing according to Varilek.

“One of our lead hog analysts here said, yeah, hogs suck. You know that that’s how what our attitude really is. We feel like we’ve got news that could rally these these hogs we we’ve got new PRRS outbreaks happening. I mean the disease is still there and so when we’re in the heart of
production we hear those stories,” he says.

Still hogs have not been able to turn around but he thinks its just a matter of time.

“I think that these hogs in these summer months can really take off here yet. So still holding out hope.”

Corn Removes War Premium
Corn futures are lower again on Friday on follow through selling and are working on a lower weekly close.

The market is taking out war and inflation premium according to Varilek.

“The energy rally that caught a lot of attention across agriculture markets and grains really benefited from it. You know, got to some levels, gave us some opportunities. Hey, to say, hey, I actually can look at some prices that might work here. That was fun. Now that we’re in the mood of, OK, we’re having ceasefire talks, we’re going to meet with Iran in Pakistan, Israel just kind of maybe coming to the table as of this morning.
We’ll see. But I think that’s starting to pull some of that premium out.”

Plus, he says the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks in the WASDE was a reminder of the large corn inventory in the U.S. with basis weaker than normal.

Soybeans Rally with Meal and China Hopes
Soybeans were higher again on Friday morning and have been strong all week getting some help from higher soybean meal as spreads are unwound with bean oil.

The other supportive feature is China and hopes for large purchases announcements in mid-May at the trade meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

Markets Fail to Rally on Positive News

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 14:51:19 GMT

For the week May corn was down 3 ½ cents, May soybeans lost 2 cents, May soybean meal plunged $12.50, May soybean oil soared 190 points, May hard red winter wheat was up 26 ½, May soft red winter wheat gained 9 ¾ and May hard red spring wheat was 20 ¼ higher.

Corn and soybeans were lower for the week and on Friday with a bearish reaction to several positive announcements during the White House Celebration of Ag.

One of the most significant was EPA’s release of the final Renewable Fuel Standard Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027.

EPA’s final rule maintains the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 and 2027.

Blending levels for biomass-based diesel, which includes biodiesel and renewable diesel, were also increased by nearly 60% from the previous standards to between an estimated 5.0 to 5.7 billion gallons according to Clean Fuels Alliance America.

Corn and Soybeans React Negatively to RVO Announcement
Jerry Gulke president of the Gulke Group says beyond the final RVOs, President Trump didn’t talk about anything new for agriculture at the event, so corn and soybeans sold off.

He says when a market reacts negatively to positive news that’s not a good sign.

The RVO announcement had been anticipated for weeks and Gulke says the markets saw profit taking as the news was already priced in.

Soybean oil had been on a tear since January, and old and new crop corn had rallied well off the long-term lows hit 18 months ago.

“There’s an old trader’s axiom, I guess you call it, that says it’s not so much what the report says, it’s what the market does with the report. And if you close lower, on what would otherwise be a friendly or a bullish report, that probably tells you that the majority of that good news was already baked into the price,” he explains.

Even sharply higher crude oil prices failed to rally corn and soybeans on Friday.

Gulke thinks the markets are starting to become numb to the war news and will need a fresh bullish catalyst to resume the rally.

“That’s kind of a caution signal to me that we’d better we better pull another rabbit out of the hat on Tuesday or we may be in trouble for the short run,” he adds.

Markets Await USDA Reports
In fact, corn and soybeans did not totally collapse because the market is waiting for the results of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports on March 31.

Gulke says the trade will be watching to see if the corn acres were reduced even more than initially thought due to the impact the Iran war has had on fertilizer prices and supplies.

He says the Gulke Group’s client surveys on acreage were on the high end of the corn estimates.

“We don’t see the big drop in corn acres and going to soybeans.”

He says the U.S. will need an additional 3.8 or 4 million acres of beans with the higher RVOs and if China does buy new crop soybeans at harvest when prices are low.

Without that kind of a shift, he contends the U.S. will continue to see big corn supplies which will back December corn prices off of current levels.

He says many farmers will make that decision in the next 30 days depending on whether or not they have fertilizer in place and what corn prices do.

“That may make some of those guys switch. And again, then we won’t know until June 30 what actually happened,” he adds.

Is the Rally Over in Corn and Soybeans?
With lower weekly closes and a lack of bullish news is the rally over in corn and soybeans?

He says even if the corn market trades higher right after the report but takes out this week’s lows and results in a lower weekly close that will cause concern.

Gulke says, “I don’t want to risk as much as I did. I wanted to risk more 18 months ago when I felt the market had changed. But if you go back to August of 2024, look at what the prices were at the end of August when we made those lows and where they are now. We’re considerably higher.”

He says soybeans are worth $100 an acre more than they were 18 months ago and even last fall.

Even corn is approaching $5 for March delivery for those that store grain.

Gulke says prices were high enough for him to reward the market with some cash sales.

“I don’t want to be short the futures here necessarily, but I made cash sales at better prices than last fall,” he says.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Corn and Soybeans Fade RVOs, See Profit Taking Pre-Report: Will the Funds Return to Buy?

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 21:12:02 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended lower on Friday with wheat and livestock mostly higher.

Corn, Soybeans Set Back Despite Final RVOs
Corn and soybeans futures ended lower on Friday fading EPA’s final Renewable Fuel Standard Renewable Volume Obligations which were the most robust in history.

Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, says the news was already priced into the corn, soybean and bean oil markets.

“We had a sizable rally in the price of soybean oil thinking back to January up till today. We’re up about, you know, 16, 17 cents a pound relative to depending on which futures contract you’re looking at. So a lot of goodness had been built into the market in terms of anticipation of the numbers. When they came out, the market said, yeah, that’s about what we got. The only difference is the looking at things. There was a 70 percent SRE extension or reallocation is the best way to say it. And then we had. a full RIN given to foreign feedstocks and foreign fuels, if you will, for the next two years. So a little negative on that,” he explains.

Plus there will be legal challenges on the SRE’s and the reallocation by the oil companies because it’s not Congressionally approved.

“Today, soybean oil is ample in the eyes of the crushers and throughout feed stock availability. So if we get bullish, it’ll probably be in the third or fourth quarter of the year.”

Corn, Soybeans Fade Surge in Crude Oil
Corn and soybeans also ignored the sharply higher crude oil market taking profits ahead of the weekend.

“Yeah, there was profit taking in the grains. I think we’re thinking forward to the reports next week. There’s end of month, end of quarter forthcoming. And I think as you also looked at the news from the Trump administration or EPA today, we kept the ethanol mandate at 15 billion gallons. No change on that. And there was some hope that maybe we could see a little better blend on the
ethanol. So that was a little negative. And I think corn reacted to that. But I think the corn market is now fully starting to shift over to new crop.”

Grains Have Put in Energy Premium
All of the grains have added premium based on rising crude oil prices but do they need more?

Basse says, “If you look at December corn at around $5 a bushel we’re trading a stocks to use ratio very close to 1.4 to 1.5 billion and so there is some some some bullishness in there already. Again a lot of this is related to the war if you go back to early February we can kind of measure where the hedge funds were buying energy futures buying grain futures and kind of in tandem and that gave us the rallies that we’ve had today. So, there’s war premium, there’s weather premium. There’s inflation premium. The question all becomes is when does the war end or what is its duration? And that’s what traders will be looking at very acutely as we come back from Easter and the holidays.”

Grains Defend Long Until War Ends
Basse says the funds will defend the longs they have added in the grain markets until the war ends and then those positions get unwound, which is a risk for farmers.

He says, “By our calculations, we have about 540,000 contracts of long positions in the grain markets in Chicago. That’s the largest that we can find looking backwards to early 2023. Back then, of course, inflation was about 8%. Soybeans were trading north of $14, corn north of $7, and wheat north of $9. And we had the war going on in Ukraine and Russia. So as you take that forward, we’ve got a lot of speculative length there and all in the markets.”

If there is an end to the war he thinks there will be an unwind in the energies and an unwind in the grain markets that kind of gives you a cascading decline. After that it would take weather problems to support the market and the fund length.

Wheat Ends Higher Adding War, Weather Premium
Wheat was mostly higher Friday and for the week adding war and weather premium according to Basse.

“We are looking at dryness and declining crop condition ratings across the western plains. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas need rain in the western portions of those states. We’ll see if we get it in the extended range forecast. Nothing for the next 10 days. And so as we start the growing season and start to see these falls in condition ratings, we are putting some additional weather premium in the price.”

He says U.S. prices are disjoined from the Russian market which since rMarch 1 is up about 8 cents a bushel. The U.S. is up around 60 cents a bushel. “So at some point, I believe that when it rains, you’ll see those levels come back together. Today, the market’s not
willing to sell just because of the war and the rain. And so that’s what traders are watching.”

Acreage Estimates
Early trade guesses heading into the USDA Prospective Plantings Report indicates less corn and wheat, more soybeans. However, will that be tempered by higher fertilizer prices?

He says, “When the acreage number comes out, especially if it’s higher than expected. Let’s say at 95 or 96, we’ll have people saying, well, farmers aren’t going to do that. But history shows us that we do plant about 2 million extra acres between the intentions and the final number. That number last year was shy, as we know, but we’ll see what all happens. I do believe that rising urea prices, and it’s not
all fertilizer, but it’s primarily in urea, is going to cause some reduction. And the intentions of U.S. corn acres are some switching to beans. But again, Mother Nature still has the biggest vote in that determination.”

There will likely be a some sizable changes going into the June 30th report, depending upon whether.

He says, “If farmers are able to plant very quickly, I would imagine we’ll get more corn. If not so, we’ll get more beans. But, you know,
there will be sizable changes.”

Quarterly Stocks
Basse says on the quarterly stocks they are looking for more grain than a year ago in all cases, but especially corn.

“We’re looking for about a billion bushels of additional corn stocks this year versus last year. So I’m about 100 million bushels above the trade estimate. The problem that I have, Michelle, is if you look at the annual feed and residual on corn, it’s up 775 million bushels.
Now, some of that is because of the record large crop last year. But I also don’t believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting. So our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn end stocks around 2.4 billion bushels. And I do think this stocks report will be important because of that. Farmers are looking at record on-store supplies. I think they’ve done a good job marketing beans, but not as good a job in marketing corn. So with that in mind, the market will look at that corn stocks number almost as importantly as it does plantings.”

China Meeting
The market is also awaiting the China summit which has been rescheduled for May 14th and 15th. The market will be watching to see how much of the 8 MMT of old crop soybean business China does or if there are other crops they buy.

Basse says the 8 MMT of soybeans was not mentioned at the trade meeting in Paris a couple of weeks ago.

“I think a lot of that is because it’s something that the Chinese probably don’t want to do. The Chinese have adequate or surplus supplies of soybeans from many sectors, and they’re trying to slow Brazilian arrivals through phytosanitary measures like weed seeds. In saying that, I’ve, as an analyst, have gone from 8 million metric tons down to 3. So I now think China will take 3 million metric tons in an old crop position. It’s not to say they don’t kind of spill that 5 million tons of the aid into a new crop position, but I think getting
more than, let’s say, 3 or 4 million tons out the door by the end of summer, with the meeting now happening on the 14th and 15th of May, is going to be difficult. So I’ve paired my number back. Some people in the industry are at zero, but I don’t know many anymore that are holding on to a number larger than, let’s say, six. So I’m in the middle of that range, as it seems.”

Cattle End Strong Despite Lower Equities
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday on follow through buying and ignored the plunging stock market and higher crude oil futures. Why?

Basse says, “Cattle didn’t care. They rallied sharply on the last couple of days. Some of this is related to the bullish Hogs and Pigs report that came out on Thursday with fewer breeding sows and less numbers there. A lot of it also came, of course, because of retail beef
demand still staying relatively strong and packer margins coming together. So as I think about why the seasonality in cattle is still up, I still believe it’s related to strong seasonal grilling demand.”

He’s not sure cattle can sustain a bull trend. “I just think we’re going to go test the upper range, and then we’ll see how the beef demand holds in if the war is still ongoing.”

Steady Cash and NWS Case
The other supportive feature was steady cash, which was a victory for the producer, and another NWS case.

Basse says, “Cattlemen are doing a fairly good job of marketing animals. We are hearing some reports of animals being heavier than packers would like, but I do believe that the ability to move animals is good.”

He says his APHIS sources reported there was also another NWS case only 77 miles from the U.S. border.

“We had another incidence of screw worm that was only 70 miles from the U.S. border. So I think some of this rally is also related to that screw worm keeping that border closed probably now heading into maybe the month of June or July. Again, we’re missing those 120,000 feeders per month. And I think that’s adding some bullishness to the feeder cattle market.”

Hogs Trade Bullish Hogs and Pigs Report
Lean hog futures were higher trading the bullish Hogs and Pigs Report. However, did it show all of the disease problems in the country?

Basse says USDA in the past hasn’t done well picking up on disease but it may be starting to be reflected in the report.

“That’s the big question, which if they didn’t pick it in the numbers, that disease even gets more important going forward. So I think we’re in a bullish phase, at least on the supply side and the pork side, at least going forward. I know June hogs are... Fairly fully valued already, but there’s still going to be another $4 to $6 up before we make a seasonal high. But I think USDA is trying to do a
better job in catching those diseases that are out there and counting snouts, if you will.”